Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Wondering about the Wages of Wins


3 Shades of Blue in general (and myself in particular) have always been fans of the work of David Berri, one of the co-authors of the book Wages of Wins. I recently had the opportunity to ask David some questions via email about the Grizzlies and the Pau Gasol trade in particular. Here are the results of that conversation.

3SoB: David – First let me say how much I appreciate you taking the time to do this. I suppose given your Bakersfield residence you felt obligated the fill in the blanks left from the Pau Gasol trade. After all if Memphis can give the Lakers a championship you can at least give a bit of your time to the Grizzlies blog writers!
David: Glad to talk to you and your audience (which I gather is growing very rapidly).

3SoB: You wrote a book called the ‘Wages of Wins’ a few years back in which you attempt to use statistics to determine a player’s value and how many wins he actually produces for his team. Would you give us a Cliff Notes version of how this works?
David: Here is the overview of the Wins Produced model:
The model starts with the basic idea that wins in the NBA are determined by offensive and defensive efficiency (points divided by possessions). From this relationship, one can estimate the value of points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, personal fouls, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts. Additional statistical work gives us the value of a blocked shot and an assist.
Additional notes
1. The value of each statistic is derived from an econometric (or statistical) model. And the values are an estimate of the impact the statistic has on the outcomes we observe for the team.
2. The analysis indicates that points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and field goal attempts have virtually the same impact (in absolute terms) on wins. Personal fouls, free throw attempts, blocked shots, and assists are worth somewhat less than the other factors.
3. When we look at the impact of these statistics we learn two lessons:
a. In terms of scoring… efficiency matters. If you score points inefficiently you do not actually help your team win.
b. Possession variables – rebounds, turnovers, steals – impact outcomes. Players that don’t score, but get you rebounds and steals (and/or avoid turnovers), can have a significant impact on wins.
4. One last point… it is assumed that a player statistics are his statistics. In other words, if you score 10 points (or get 10 rebounds), you get credit for these points (or rebounds). If you take 5 shots, you are charged the cost of these shots. It’s important to note that there is some interaction between the player statistics, but I have found this effect to be rather small. For the most part, what you see in the NBA is what you get. So it makes sense to credit a player for his statistics (by the way, I would not make the same argument for NFL players)

3SoB: You wrote on your website that this trade makes the Lakers the favorites to win the West of they can get Bynum back. You went so far as to say that Gasol’s presence puts the Lakers among the elite in the West even without Bynum. From someone who remembers the Grizzlies 0-12 playoff record with Gasol, is this actually a playoff prediction you are making or just a regular season record assumption?

David: Let me start by reviewing the playoff history of Gasol on Memphis.
In 2005-06 the Grizzlies were the 5th best team (in terms of efficiency differential) in the NBA. But they faced Dallas in the first round, who happened to be the 3rd best team in the Association.
In 2004-05 the Grizzlies were the 7th best, facing the second best (Phoenix).
And in 2003-04 the Grizzlies were the 9th best, but faced the very best team in the league (San Antonio).
In sum, Gasol and Memphis were never favored in the first round. Yes, it is not beyond reason that they could have won a playoff game. But it was not expected that Memphis was going to win any of these playoff series. So judging Gasol on the Grizzlies lack of playoff success is a bit unfair.

Now about the Lakers…
Assuming Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza are healthy (a big if), here is what Gasol does for this team.
Gasol not only takes the minutes of Kwame Brown, but also probably some of the minutes of Vladimir Radmanovic and/or Ronny Turiaf. Gasol is more productive than all three, so that’s a big help.

In addition, his presence allows the Lakers to play Lamar Odom more minutes at small forward, where his value will be higher. Finally, and this is a smaller positive, Javaris Crittenton was easily the least productive guard on LA’s roster. So Crittenton’s departure helps a bit.

It’s important to note that the Lakers ability to challenge Boston depends on the health of Bynum. If Bynum is not healthy, then the Lakers do not look much different from the other elite teams in the West.

3SoB: What does this leave the Grizzlies with this year, according to your math? Is it possible the Grizzlies can surprise this year with unproven young players getting a real chance to perform?
David: There is a great saying from Mike Tyson…'Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.' (I took this from a Peter King SI.com column, and King was quoting Michael Strahan).

When I read this quote I was reminded of everyone who fought Tyson when he was in his prime. These fighters would tell themselves if they tried hard and believed; they could beat Tyson. Each of these fighters would enter the ring with a positive attitude and a clear plan to achieve victory. And then Tyson would hit them in the face and the plan would go to hell.

I tell this story because the Grizzlies are now in an Association where most every other team is Tyson. And the Grizzlies are telling themselves that if they try really hard, and execute their plan, they can shock the world.

Unfortunately, soon after the ball is thrown in the air at the start of each game, reality is going to set in. Memphis has too many holes to compete successfully most nights.

Look at the center and power forward positions. With Gasol gone, Kwame Brown becomes the most productive player Memphis employs at the four and five spot. And Brown is well below average. The other centers are Jason Collins and Darko Milicic, two players whose production of wins this year is in the negative range. At power forward the team is forced to play Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay, two players who do not rebound well enough to play the four spot. At the other three spots on the floor there is some production. Mike Miller is one of the most productive shooting guard-small forwards in the league. And Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are productive point guards.

But right now, those three players are the only above average performers on the team. Remember, wins in the NBA are not magical. Wins happen because your players are productive. Or to put it another way, if your players are not productive, you don’t get to win very much.

Given what your players have done this season, it would be truly surprising if Memphis was able to win games consistently the rest of the way.

All that being said, Memphis may win 10 more games the rest of the season. So 10 times you will get to say “if only they played like this every night, they would be pretty good.” But that line of reasoning is incorrect. Bad teams will win games and good teams will lose once in awhile. It’s what a team does over time that is the mark of how good or bad a team is, and I think over time – given this roster – the Grizzlies are going to disappoint their fans.

3SoB: Memphis is definitely suffering this season but I seem to remember something you wrote that implied a player’s best performance years don’t begin until their 3rd season in the league. That means Lowry, Conley, Gay, Hakim and even Darko if you eliminate his wasted two years in Detroit (he is only 22 after all) lie ahead of them. Throwing in some decent drafts and the team can progress in the future can’t it or am I just wishing on stars now?

David: If the players improved and/or the team adds more productive players, then of course the team improves.

Let me talk about improvement first. It is the case that young players can get better. But I think people go too far with this tendency. Basically people tend to see all young players as “future stars.”
Here is some data that might damper your enthusiasm. Looking back at the drafts from 1991-1995, here are the number of players in each draft to play at least 10,000 minutes in his career and post a career WP48 higher than 0.150 (average WP48 is 0.100 and I think 0.150 is a mark of someone who is “good”).
1991 – 4
1992 – 5
1993 – 3
1994 – 6
1995 – 2
There were 93 players drafted from 1991-95 who played 10,000 minutes in their NBA career. Of these, only 20 were significantly above average players throughout their careers. In other words, only 22% of players who played significant minutes in their career managed to be significantly above average players.
When people look at young players like Lowry, Conley, Gay, Warrick, and Milicic, they tend to think that each of these players could become “good.” But the data tells us that most young players never become “good.”
The early returns on these players do suggest that Conley and Lowry are going to be above average players. And I think Gay can be above average if he plays small forward. But I am not sure that Warrick and Milicic are going to develop into players who make a significant contribution to team success.

As for picking better players, that’s always possible. Let me talk about that below.

3SoB: Along those lines how long do most NBA players maintain their level of performance? Is there a general rule that says after a certain age most players start to decline in performance?

David: In general players get better when they are young and worse when they are old. But I don’t know the parameters of the curve (yet). This is one topic I wish to look at in the future.

3SoB: Chris Wallace has a lot of cap space available to him now. What upcoming free agents do you believe produce the most wins and who produces the least? (You can use the list provided at http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=2008freeagents for a guide here). What about college players?
David: Here are the top 20 unrestricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.

Player / Minutes Played / WP48 / Wins Produced
Shawn Marion (ETO) 1,473 / 0.314 / 9.6
Kurt Thomas 794 / 0.302 / 5.0
Baron Davis (ETO) 1,601 / 0.237 / 7.9
James Jones (P) 674 / 0.212 / 3.0
Brent Barry 541 / 0.207 / 2.3
DeSagana Diop 740 / 0.177 / 2.7
Antawn Jamison 1,612 / 0.175 / 5.9
Eddie House 814 / 0.163 / 2.8
Corey Maggette (ETO) 1,236 / 0.157 / 4.0
Anthony Carter 860 / 0.140 / 2.5
Grant Hill (P) 1,154 / 0.133 / 3.2
Bonzi Wells 907 / 0.132 / 2.5
Allen Iverson (ETO) 1,710 / 0.128 / 4.5
James Posey (P) 791 / 0.126 / 2.1
Carlos Arroyo 616 / 0.121 / 1.6
Sam Cassell 755 / 0.119 / 1.9
Anthony Johnson 914 / 0.119 / 2.3
Mickael Pietrus 637 / 0.098 / 1.3
Beno Udrih 1,188 / 0.091 / 2.3

Here are the top 15 restricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.

Player / Minutes Played / WP48 Wins / Produced
Jose Calderon 1,277 / 0.319 / 8.5
Andris Biedrins 1,130 / 0.303 / 7.1
Josh Childress 1,068 / 0.219 / 4.9
Emeka Okafor 1,359 / 0.203 / 5.7
Dorell Wright 649 / 0.170 / 2.3
Carlos Delfino 1,015 / 0.170 / 3.6
Andre Iguodala 1,607 / 0.165 / 5.5
Luol Deng 1,145 / 0.152 / 3.6
Ryan Gomes 1,128 / 0.131 / 3.1
Paul Millsap (T) 862 / 0.130 / 2.3
Monta Ellis 1,431 / 0.122 / 3.6
Josh Smith 1,426 / 0.114 / 3.4
Daniel Gibson 1,274 / 0.073 / 1.9
Kelenna Azubuike (P) 987 / 0.070 / 1.4
Ronny Turiaf 637 / 0.059 / 0.8

As you can see, there are a few free agents who will help. DeSagana Diop is an interesting possibility, since he has been above average before this season. James Jones is a big reason the Blazers have improved, but he has not been productive in the past. So I am not sure he will continue to perform like this in the future.

As for the draft, Erich Doerr posted a study at the Wages of Wins Journal a few days ago. One name that leaped out was Kevin Love.

Love would give the Grizzlies what they need at power forward. So he would help. Of course he has to declare for the draft. And the Grizzlies have to select him. And he has to produce as a pro. So there are quite a few ifs with respect to Love and the draft.

I think you should see, though, that it is possible for the Grizzlies to get better in the future. But a few things I would emphasize:
1. I am not optimistic about this team as it is currently constructed.
2. It is possible for this team to improve, but it is going to need to get more productive players.
3. I do not think the Gasol trade is going to help the Grizzlies get more productive players. At least, I am not optimistic about trying to improve a team via low first round draft choices.

3SoB: Any other comments you would like to make?
David: Thanks for the opportunity to answer your questions. I wish I could give fans of Memphis more hope in the short-run.

David Berri is a professor at CSU-Bakerfield and writes the Wages of Wins Journal where he is always putting up timely and informative blogs. We at 3 Shades of Blue highly recommend you checking out his site.

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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Wallace Explains Pau Trade to Ticket Holders in Stunning Presentation

From Zack

Wow!


As a guest, I was able to attend a season ticket holder Chalk Talk before the Bucks game. Assistant Coach Dave Joerger, still injured PG Micheal Conley and now infamous GM Chris Wallace were the guests to address a very, very brave and possibly stupid crowd (tornadoes were at the time ravaging the Memphis metro area, serioulsy).

I'll repeat, Chris Wallace addressed a group of season ticket holders only days after the epic, Pau Gasol-to-the-Lakers trade, which 9 out of 10 NBA analysts claim was grand theft and questioned Wallace's sanity. And moreover, these fans showed up despite possibly having a home in or drove through areas that were getting pounded by deadly tornadoes. You're excited about what is coming next, aren't you?

Wallace (referred to as CW for the rest of the post) spoke last. He spent the first part of the event behind a white board writing while others were talking and being asked questions. When it was CW's time to speak, he turned the board around and then gave a presentation on why he traded Pau Gasol. As a Griz fan, it was stunning to hear, to be truthful. His conviction and skills to persuade were impressive. His message was presented clearly and convincingly. Essentially he had two objectives. First, to explain the decision to trade Pau (this was done with absolute certainty, I doubt anyone left there not 100% in belief that trading Pau was essential for the franchise to have serious chances at future playoff success...to further reiterate and be completely clear, CW hit a home run presenting his argument for trading Pau). Second, CW talked about the benefits of the L.A. trade (this part was less convincing than the need to simply trade Pau).

CW started by turning the board around to show off 3 columns. Column 1 was the Western Conference standings. Certainly you can guess what this was intended to show (hint, it starts with the the #13 and implies we SUCK).

Column 2 was a list titled "Pau".

Pau
--48 million over 3 years
--Durability
--Summer Activity
--0-12 in Playoffs
--Good 4's Available in Draft
--3-4 Without Pau; 5 More PPG

Column 3 was a list titled "Trade".
Trade
-- Cap Space: 12-14 Million Possible in '08
-- Cap Space: 17 Millions Possible in '09
-- 5-7 Players in Return
-- 4 "1st rounders"
-- Restructure Salary

I'm not going to detail exactly what CW said minute by minute, instead here is a long list of things I remember that were of interest. Take into account a lot of this is paraphrased and it is entirely possible that some of it is recited sightly differently than originally said by CW.

-- The Griz are not better than their record. CW says he agrees with Coach Parcells idea about being exactly what your record says you are. We are a 13 win team and something needed done. He compared it to making a halftime adjustment.
-- Top level talent wins in the NBA and playoff wins are what is most important. CW essentially said that players that make as much as Pau was scheduled to make (48 million in the next 3 years) are expected to win playoff games and that most do. CW's plan is get us into the thick of the best Western Conference teams. He figures if we kept Pau and built around him we would likely only slowly inch up the standings, which won't suffice.
-- CW was not comfortable with Pau playing for Spain. I was floored by the admission. I'll admit I'm a little nervous about posting this item (although CW did admit that the NBA is filled with information leaks, case-in-point). CW made an off-hand comment about no media being in the room because the NBA is friendly towards national summer play and he was getting ready to, in essence, bash it. If I wasn't so nervous, you can bet I'd lead with this item and mention it in the post title for a dramatic effect. But make no mistake about it. I was floored by CW's admission that Pau playing for Spain had an effect on the decision to trade Pau (don't underestimate how much Pau's injury while playing for Spain ruined his image in Memphis). The second thing CW mentioned when making the case against keeping Pau was that he has had durability issues and is scheduled to play for Spain again next summer. He was not comfortable worrying about what might happen to Pau. In fact, he was not comfortable with summer national play at all. For instance, he mentioned Darko being forced to run cross-country in the mountains during practice for the Serbia National Team only days after signing a contract with the Griz. He mentioned that unlike NBA training camp, national team practices aren't regulated by the NBA. This presents a big risk for NBA teams that have their players, particularly fragile franchise players, playing National Team summer ball.
-- CW doesn't want to end up on the wrong side of big, crippling contract. CW explained to the ticket holders that NBA contracts are guaranteed (unlike in football). A consequence of that is big, long contracts can cripple teams towards the end of the contract depending on how well that player is playing and how well that players body is holding up. He mentioned that NBA basketball is a physically demanding sport and bodies can suddenly deteriorate. It was clear that CW is looking to build around a core group of talented players that are in their lower 20's.
-- Need more talent. This was a common refrain mentioned many times. In general, the Griz need more talent to properly compete in the Western Conference. The Pau trade could net up to 5-7 new players, all of which could help fill the talent gap.
-- Emphasized cap room. Either this summer or next summer, the Griz can be major players in the free agent market. When asked about free agents not wanting to go to Memphis, CW replied with they follow the money. For example, this summer, with only a fraction of that cap space, many players were inquiring about Memphis.
-- Phone is ringing off the hook. CW says that after the Pau trade, this is as much contact from other GM's he's ever seen, with just about every team inquiring about our players (I'm sure most are assuming there is a firesale going on, while some might actually like our players).
-- Flexibility. The Laker trade, by acquiring picks and cap space, allows CW to be flexible going forward.
-- Collins is a student of the game. When asked about the Stro-Collins trade, the most interesting comment was that Collins is a great student. CW said that on the flight to Memphis, Collins was studying his Griz Scouting Report written by the NJ Nets so he can be as prepared as possible. Can any Griz fan see Stro doing this? Didn't think so.
-- Understands that winning is important. CW knows that winning is most important and also important for him to keep his job.
-- CW and Iavaroni gave it a chance to work. CW reiterates that him and the coaching staff gave it a chance to work, but they all agree that the Griz can't be serious contenders staying on the current course.
-- About Marc Gasol. CW said that Marc is likely to play in the NBA (even if not for the Griz) and that one way or another the Griz will benefit (i.e., "go thru us").
-- The team was just as good (er, bad) with or without Pau. Although he admitted the sample size wasn't statistically significant, this team was no better or worse with or without Pau. I heard on the radio this week that in the last 2 or so years, the team won 27% of with Pau and 28% without.
-- Despite not directly bashing Pau, there wasn't anything positive said about him. I don't really want to elaborate on this, but the whole thing wasn't exactly praising of Pau.
-- About questions. I expected there to be a lot of hard hitting questions about either trading Pau in the first place and then (on the surface) not getting that much back in return. CW's excellent sales pitch to why the Griz had to trade Pau convinced everyone (or at least almost everyone) in the room, I'm certain. Some people asked hard questions about why they should continue to buy season tickets and CW gave obvious response centered around his plan to build a winner, how exciting the Griz are to watch play, how having an NBA team is such a rare treat, how popular the NBA is all over the world, and how great NBA players will be in town playing on a regular basis.

I'm sure I am forgetting something about what CW said, sorry. I can't believe how much CW's philosophies presented sounded like our very own MemphisX. I am stunned at his admission of not being comfortable with Pau's summer activity with the Spain National Team. In all, CW gave a great presentation, was brutally honest and quite convincing. The stuff with Coach Joerger and Micheal Conley were really non-eventful. The most interesting comment to pass along was when Conley was asked about the Tigers and responded that he was the last one to beat them.

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Post GameThoughts - Milwaukee

Chipc3's Perspective:
Well the post-Gasol era started the same way the Gasol era ended, with a team unable to figure out how to win a game that was in their grasp. The new look Grizzlies looked a lot like the old blowing a late lead by being outscored 12-2 down the stretch to lose by 5 pts to a Milwaukee team missing their top scorer and their hot shot rookie. Mike Miller looked good for three quarters including the fourth but this time disappeared in the 3rd when a halftime lead became a fourth quarter deficit. Rudy Gay couldn't take over the game because of his lack of ball handling skills and the team simply put up too many ugly shots down the stretch.

To make matters worse Pau Gasol scored 24 pts on 10-15 shooting and grabbed 12 boards in his Laker debut.

Darko Milicic looked decent at times in amassing his third straight double-double but his shot selection was highly suspect as was the play-calling that kept putting the ball in his hands. It seemed the plan was to make Darko an offensive threat and he is really is better focusing on defense and rebounding. The problem is that Memphis can't afford Darko to be an after thought offensively. The Grizzlies already attack in the half court set with 4 against 5 as Kyle Lowry is no threat at all. Throw in the fact that Juan Carlos Navarro is in a slump and the Grizz already have a hole at the 4 with no Gasol and it is easy to see why they have trouble scoring in crunch time.

The interior defense is still a problem so maybe that wasn't Pau's fault. They got killed on the boards so maybe that wasn't Pau's fault either. Basically the team looked exactly like they did with Pau only with one less weapon to score with. Still the trade is about the future not the present. Javaris Crittenton looked very promising if a bit raw in his 7 minutes and Kwame looked exactly like we were told he would look. Which means he looked like a player that will give us $9 million in cap space this summer.

The one bright spot was the weather had more to do with the poor attendance than the team.

From Zack

Quickly...

-- Deadly tornadoes in the area limited the crowd size. The upper deck was closed off and those fans moved down.
-- Kwame Brown got a standing ovation when he first entered the game.
-- The refs were absolutely abysmal.
-- A fan got kicked out because of it.
-- Of course, we found a way to lose at the end.
-- The Griz do not defend the pick-and-roll correctly. At all. Even a bit. It's pathetic.
-- Javaris played SG, while Navarro played PG when on the court together. Probably temporary.
-- Navarro is better suited to be a SG, this game showed his struggles bringing the ball down the court effectively against pressure.
-- Best play of the game was a thunderous alley-oop from Kyle to Rudy.
-- The Bucks were depleted. There couldn't have been a less interesting game scheduled tonight.
-- I had a lot of fun at the game, despite the loss.
-- Rudy Gay is awesome.
-- I'm encouraged about what I'm seeing from Darko with Pau gone.

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Welcome back to Dunkyland!

When I got the phone call, I was sure that someone was just having some fun at my expense. "Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and two 1st round draft picks." My initial reaction was "hey -- those salaries don't work" (yeah, I know it is pathetic that I know the salary structures for 80% of the teams in league -- quit laughing), but then I was told that they had resigned Aaron McKie to make it work. "Isn't he with the Sixers now?" Yet another sign of the ridiculousness of this trade. The Lakers traded the Sixers assistant coach to the Grizzlies. You cannot make stuff like that up.

For the next 48 hours I felt.........numb. I couldn't even begin to comprehend what had happened, so I couldn't feel anything about the trade. Well, other than a tremendous feeling of being cursed with the worst timing in the history of blogging. However, in the last two days, I have read two phenomenal viewpoints of the trade that have made me see just what this trade really means for Memphis. The first one was Pete Pranica's post on Grizz Blogs. The second was Hardwood Paroxysm's account of the trade. Slowly, I began to see the sun peeking through the clouds.

So now I am left at a crossroads. On the one hand, the Gasol trade has left the Grizzlies with cap space for the upcoming offseason (estimated $10-15 million), an additional draft pick for a great talent evaluator in Chris Wallace to use and a young player with good potential in Javaris Crittenton. They will be able to rebuild this team from the ground up, using Mike Conley and Rudy Gay as the foundation, with Darko Milicic and Crittenton as key players. Then you factor in two more young players with potential in the draft this summer and the talent level of this team going forward should increase dramatically.

It sounds like they won't use their cap space this offseason, given that this isn't a particularly enticing unrestricted free agent crop to pair with a group of young athletic players, preferring to roll it over to the 2009 offseason, where there are a lot of attractive FA's of the "right age". Factor in another 18 months of growth/maturity for Conley/Gay/Darko and this team could improve by leaps and bounds. So there is reason to have hope for the future of this franchise, including a return to the postseason as soon as the 2009/10 season.

On the other hand, this move was obviously business first, basketball a distant second. Even though it is mostly being reported that Chris Wallace pitched the idea to owner Michael Heisley, this one has Heisley grimy little fingerprints all over it. Wallace has been in print and on the radio several times this season saying that he did not want an expiring contract to be the central piece in return for either Gasol or Mike Miller in a trade. Lo and behold, what did he say about the acquisition of Kwame Brown? "He was the biggest expiring deal we could get." Now, I'm familiar with GM speak and know it when I see it. This 180 degree turnaround did not seem like a case of GM speak. Rather, it seems more likely that it was a directive from Heisley to Wallace -- not the other way around.

If that is the case, then this trade was a salary dump, plain and simple. If this is nothing more than a way to lower the outstanding contracts on the team to make it easier for Heisley to either sell the team to an outside group or to force the local group of minority owners to meet his asking price, then Memphis fans have been duped and taken advantage of as pawns. Pawns who shelled out money for a team that they expected to be competitive this year, even if they weren't expecting a return to the playoffs. Now they get to watch a team that has 13 wins so far and probably won't match last year's total of 22 victories. Not only is that a hard pill to swallow, it is an even harder sell for the sales/marketing staff. As Geoff Calkins pointed out in his column Saturday, can you imagine what that sales call will be like? It won't be pretty, I can assure you. This team didn't draw well when they were making the postseason and actively trying to get better. How low will attendance drop now that the rest of this season is a foregone conclusion and next year won't be much better? When does the attendace clause of the team's lease actually go into effect? (Speaking of attendance, Mark Cuban says get off your butt and do something if your attendance sucks.)

So while I would love to go along with the idea that this was a move made with the team's best interests in mind, if I have learned one thing in life, it is that rich, powerful people usually get what they want. Michael Heisley is a billionaire, so he gets what he wants and then takes the rest. If the team resurrects itself over the next two or three seasons, then I'll accept that Heisley is not, in fact, the Anti-Christ. If he uses this move as leverage to sell the team to a group like the Brian Davis-led flunkies who only have enough money to buy the team and nothing more, then I'm starting a blog dedicated to trashing Heisley. Either way, only time will tell what is to come for this team.

Welcome back to Dunkyland!

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Links: Gasol trade fallout

It's gonna take awhile to get used to that image.


Hardwood Paroxysm has one of the best viewpoints of what the Gasol trade truly means for the future of the Memphis Grizzlies.


Chad Ford (ESPN Insider) lists 10 teams he thinks could have provided a trade for Gasol that would have been as good as what the Lakers were offering.


The Blowtorch has a suggestion for the Grizzlies' new lineup: Busts and Boobies.


Hoopsworld lists the Grizzlies among its "Coldest Teams of January". That's not a good thing, I can assure you.

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Monday, February 4, 2008

Links: Conley at practice, Collins for Swift trade completed, Pete's Perspective, 20 Questions

According to Graham Kendrick, Mike Conley was at practice today and should play in tomorrow night's contest against the Milwaukee Bucks. That's good news as the team could really use his steadying influence right now.

The trade that sent Stromile Swift to the New Jersey Nets for F/C Jason Collins and cash considerations was completed today. Collins is known around the league as a solid defender, which has been one of the Grizzlies' major shortcomings this season.

Now that I'm over the shock of the Gasol trade and have begun to consider what it all means, I'll probably post something regarding my thoughts on it later in the week. You can be assured that when I do it will include a lot of references to this recent post from Pete Pranica.

Make sure you visit Beyond the Arc to read the 20 questions that Chris Herrington asks and answers regarding the trade and where the Grizzlies go from here.

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Memphis vs Milwaukee - 2.5.08

Memphis seemed to still be suffering from shellshock against Utah from the news that Pau Gasol was traded to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, the draft rights to Marc Gasol and two #1 draft picks. The Milwaukee game should actually witness the start of the era after Gasol when Jason Collins, Javaris and Kwame actually suit up in a game for the Grizzlies. Not that anyone should expect much contribution from these three. The only player that adds anything to the immediate lineup will be Javaris as he should instantly become the backup to Kyle Lowry moving JCN back to his more natural SG position. Collins and Brown will both see action backing up Darko but it is doubtful that either will play significant minutes. That leaves the scoring burden on Miller and Gay who struggled against Utah in that role. Mike Miller especially will miss seeing open shots as team's doubled down on Gasol. This is a great opportunity for Hakim Warrick to step up and show he belongs in the future plans for the Grizzlies.

Milwaukee has struggled this year. Between fighting with the Chinese government about letting Yi Jianlian play for the Bucks, to dealing with life without Michael Redd to just trying to mature as a team with so many young players in the mix, it has been a learning experience for Milwaukee. While most of the attention directed at Milwaukee has to do with the drafting of Yi and his performance the development of Andrew Bogut has been the best story on the team this season. Charlie Villanueva on the other hand has taken a severe step backwards in his development and may be available in a trade soon. Bobby Simmons' return from two years of injuries offers more promise for the Bucks future.

Point Guards: Kyle Lowry vs Mo Williams
Many people expected Memphis to make a run at Mo Williams in free agency last summer but the drafting of Michael Conley turned the Grizzlies attention toward a big and eventually to Darko. Mo returned to Milwaukee and has played decently but hasn't been the playmaker many people expected this season. Part of that has to do with the lack of people to make plays of course. Kyle Lowry has continued to log heavy minutes since Conley's injury and has produced but his role on the team is in question now with another rookie PG on the roster. The disturbing aspects of Lowry's game have been his turnovers and poor shooting.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Royal Ivey

Royal Ivey has been filling in for Redd this season and definately hasn't got the shooting touch that Redd has. Shooting only 41% as a starter and only 28% from the arc, Ivey has taken a team's strength and made it a weakness. Navarro's shooting has been off lately as his minutes have increased and his responsibilities broadened. In the last 5 games Navarro has shot a tepid 35% from the field and 27% from the arc. Navarro should be playing the majority of minutes at SG now but one has to wonder how he will perform now that his best friend is gone. Not having to be the playmaker anymore should free up Navarro to concentrate solely on the 2 position which should help him snap out of his funk.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Bobby Simmons

Bobby Simmons is coming back after two frustrating seasons of injuries including missing the entire 2005-06 season after signing a big free agent contract to leave LA for Milwaukee. Before the injuries Bobby was finally living up to the potential he exhibited his last season in LA. Simmons has been thrust back into the starting lineup wiht the injury to Desmond Mason. Mike is the most experienced Grizz player with the team right now. He has played barely over 5 full seasons with the team. Mike has a high basketball IQ and a deadly eye but a weak stomach for taking big shots. This is a rare matchup where Mike won't be a step slower than his opponent however so his shooting in the first three quarters should be enough to win the personal battle.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Yi Jianlian

Yi is the 2nd rookie starting in this game. That is extremely rare in the NBA. Yi has been a lot better than his detractors expected but by no means has he been tearing up the league. Grizz fans may remember Rudy's introduction to Yi in the summer league with his posterizing dunk. Rudy is playing like the 2nd best player from last year's draft class behind Brandon Roy and he isn't far behind. Rudy has been given the keys to the team and is being asked to take over like Roy has in Portland after Zack Randolph was traded. How Rudy responds to the challenge will go a long way in determining if Memphis made a bad deal or not.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Andrew Bogut

Darko has put together back to back double-doubles in points and rebounds in the last two games for the 1t time in his career. Andrew Bogut has 21 double-doubles this season. Bogut was drafted #1 the year after Darko went #2 but Bogut is still a year older than Darko because of his time in college. While neither player has really lived up to their high draft positions Bogut at least has become a competitant NBA starter averaging 13.5 ppg and 9 rebounds. Darko's defense has been improving (7 blocks in the last two games) as has his shooting. Hopefully Darko is fully recovered from the sprained thumb that plagued him early in the season. Darko may be playing well but it is hard to forget the spanking Bogut put on the Grizzlies earlier this season.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Benches: Memphis vs Milwaukee

Are Michael Redd or Desmond Mason going to play in this game? Those questions will affect the game's outcome more than the benches. Milwaukee's bench is led by Charlie Bell and Charlie Villanueva right now. Has Charlie Villanueva woken up from his season long funk? Charlie V's up and down performances have been disappointing for the Bucks. Who knows what Memphis' bench will be like? Hakim Warrick is looked at to provide points but what impact with Jason Collins, Kwame Brown and Javaris Crittenton have? Personally I hope to see Crittenton have a good game as that will ease a lot of the pressure on the Grizzlies about the trade.
Advantage: Milwaukee

UPDATE: According to Graham Kendrick, Mike Conley practiced on Monday and should be available for the game against Milwaukee. This makes it official, the Grizzlies have more point guards with fewer than 50 games of playing experience than any team in NBA history!

Alternative Perspectives:
BrewHoop.com
Bucks Blog
MKE Bucks Draft

BallHype: hype it up!

Sunday, February 3, 2008

3SoB Sunday Chronicle 2.3.08

From Zack

Welcome to the latest edition of our Sunday Chronicle, where the previous week will be reviewed, the upcoming week will be previewed, lots of enticing blue links will appear, and a few more things might be added in for your reading pleasure. All pictures are only from games that were played during the previous week. And leave a freaking comment so I know if anyone is actually reading this!

After getting whipped by the efficient Jazz, Rudy and Hak are wondering what the future holds without the Meal Ticket around. (AP)

Wow! Double Wow!! Triple Wow!!!! Pau-Wow!!!! Even more exclamation points to drive home the point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a week that was. Probably the biggest week in Memphis Grizzlies history. Might as well consider this week's Sunday Chronicle to be the Pau Gasol Trade Edition.

As everyone already knows, the Face of the Franchise and best player in team history, Pau Gasol, was traded to the Lakers for a pu-pu platter of "essentially" 4 first round draft picks and salary cap relief. Here is the full trade details again:
Pau Gasol and a second round pick will be sent to Los Angeles for Kwame Brown (and his expiring contract), a first rounder in '08 and '10, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie and rights to Marc Gasol

The general reaction to the trade, aside from the ticker-tape parade and dancing in the streets taking place in LA, was a great big groan. I'd guess that most die-hard Griz fans weren't very satisfied with the final trade package, even those fans that badly wanted Pau traded. There are still those that like the trade of Pau for primarily cap space, and I think the number coming around to that side is increasing. Personally, I'm not disgusted with the trade and agree that it was a better deal than some of the other rumored deals on the table (everyone would agree that this is infinitely more attractive than a package of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes, right?). I'm not yet sure how the general Memphis public has/have reacted to the news and details of the trade. Although I do know that my crazy neighbor who I have never talked basketball with came up to me in the front yard and wanted to talk about "Paul" Gasol being traded.

Chris Wallace originally said very firmly on the radio (and other places) that he was not going to trade Pau for only expiring contracts. He has since explained that he simply changed his mind while watching this train wreck of a season. The cost-cutting maneuver has the potential to really help the Griz in the future if the right free agents are signed and right draft picks are picked. But more importantly, this move may facilitate Heisley selling the team, hopefully to the local ownership group. Ric Bucher mentioned that he heard this type of trade was what the local owners wanted done before they gathered the money to pay Heisley's ransom.

Wallace denies that ownership directives had anything to do with this trade and that the front office thought this was the best deal available (and judging by media reports I think it was). Heisley even said that he had to be convinced by Wallace and Iavaroni to OK the trade. It has been suggested that Jerry West had a hand in on this deal, but Heisley also denied that.

I am also surprised (not sure if in a good or bad way) that Heisley and Wallace have both acknowledged that the lack of popularity Pau had in Memphis contributed to the decision to trade Pau. I like it that the Griz actually do listen to the fanbase. But I'm not sure if that is a trait I want to continue since Wallace is getting paid to be smarter than all of us backseat drivers. Then again, I truly believe this trade will be good for ticket sales. Time will tell.

A few more notes. Wallace told Navarro that he does not consider the Spaniards a pair "tied at the hip". It will be interesting to see how his restricted free agency is handled this summer. Wallace also said numerous times our three PG's will be locked in a room and we will see which two emerge. Great! That sure sounds like postive words for 3 rookie players to hear. Everyone this side of Jupiter interrupted Wallace's comments to mean Kyle Lowry should go ahead and pack his bags. And most of those people actually thought they were being astute with that conclusion! There is also some talk that Miller will be traded because, well, a firesale wouldn't be complete without also trading another starter for a similar pu-pu platter. Lastly, Aaron McKie was added in the trade for salary reasons and will actually be joining the Griz as a player/coach. Maybe that will turn out good for us.

Griz fans, get ready for May and June. Looks like the draft this year might be even more important than last year. That is hard to believe.

Can we win the lottery this year? Who will we draft in the lottery? Who will we draft with the Lakers pick? Will we draft Derrick Rose and then have all four PG's locked in a room and see which two emerge? Is Beasley really that good? Is OJ Mayo a head case? How tall is Eric Gordon? How good is Kevin Love? What about those 2 Euro dudes projected to go high in the lottery?

In case you haven't read them, here are the links to the main Commercial Appeal stories to read for most of the information about the Pau trade:
Pau Sent Packing by Tillery
Gasol for What? by Caulkins
Heisley Q and A by Tillery
Owner feels pain of trade, too by Caulkins
Trade stuns Gasol by Tillery
Alright Gasol haters, he's gone now what? by Morgan
Grizzlies vow to fight on by Morgan
What others are saying about Gasol's trade

Pau Timeline

I thought it could be interesting to quickly review the timeline that occurred for the Pau trade (to the best of my ability at 3am in the morning), emphasizing the internet/blogsphere aspect because it was interesting that we internet geeks actually had about 12 hours to contemplate the upcoming Pau/Lakers trade.

At first I was going to just ignore the events before this season that undoubtedly contributed to the culmination of this final Pau trade because that would take days to compile and write out.....but I couldn't, so I have included a long, rambling laundry list of events that summarizes before 2008.

Before 2008
Pau gets max contract; becomes legitimate all-star and star league player; develops annoying habits like checking for blood, whining to refs instead of playing defense, and flailing arms about wildly for no reason; leads Griz to record setting 0-12 record in the playoffs; severely hurts foot while winning World MVP and leading Spain to gold; Verno writes and records hilarious Ode to Pau (who wants a crying Spaniard) and immediately gets death threats from Spain; Sam Smith develops crush on Pau and wants him in Chicago worse than Brittney wants her RedBull-Vodka-Robitussin mix drink; Griz turn out to suck the season after trading Shane; Pau gets booed at home; Sam Smith writes another Pau-to-Chicago article; Pau has meeting with Heisley about being traded; Jerry West leaks trade request to media which was much like giving a pack of coyote's a dead deer carcass; Sam Smith writes another Pau-to-Chicago article; every other local and national NBA analyst writes a Pau-soon-to-be-traded article; Jerry West refuses to trade Pau for anything less than half the gold in Ft Knox; new regime promises to be committed to building around Pau; Pau's best friend is brought to Memphis
August 2007 to January 2008
Griz disappoint many and suck for the 2nd straight year while having one of the 5 worst records in the league. Sam Smith still obsesses over Pau on a regular basis. More than half of the Griz fans in Memphis don't like Pau and want to see him traded evident by Pau again getting booed at home. Wallace and Iavaroni decide that the best direction for the team is to trade Pau and start fielding offers. All offers were reportedly VERY underwhelming.
January 13th, 2008
Andrew Bynum hurts knee playing against the Griz. Injury to budding star re-ignites trade talk between the Griz and the Lakers regarding Pau.
Approximately 11:30 PM, January 31st
Griz and Lakers agree upon trade. It has been reported that initially the Lakers offered Kwame and Vlad "the crazy snowboarder", but the Griz wanted J-Critt and draft picks. Lakers caved to our steep demands.
Approximately Midnight, January 31st/February 1st
Chris Vernon publishes cryptic blog post hinting towards Griz firesale and impending Pau for Kwame Brown trade. In doing so, Verno again solidified his reputation of breaking Griz news.
Early Morning Hours, February 1st
I (Zack) quickly take Verno's cryptic post and spread it far and wide. Griz fans on the grizzlies.com messageboard start to react to the possibility. I even posted the Verno rumor on the Lakers board on the RealGM Forums, causing Lakers fans to immediately start dreaming of trading a pu-pu platter for Pau and becoming legit title contenders. I am quite fascinated about the 12 hour window of trade discussion time Griz and Lakers fans had before the actual trade was announced. I also email Tom Ziller at AOL FanHouse about the trade in the middle of the night, figuring it would make a great FanHouse post the next day. Did it ever!
Morning Hours, February 1st
Tom Ziller alerts the rest of the NBA blogsphere of Verno's post regarding a possible Griz firesale and Kwame-Pau trade. Soon after, Henry Abbot on TrueHoop writes an article about the Lakers being Pau's most sensible destination. I do not know if he saw Verno's post before writing the article or not. Quite the coincidence if not.
Approximatley 1:30 pm, February 1st
Ron Tillery reports on the MemphisEdge that Pau Gasol has been traded to the Lakers. Exact details are not immediatly known. Chris Vernon then quickly chimes in with the correct trade details. Tillery follows.
Afternoon Hours, February 1st
Mainstream media, NBA blogsphere, and NBA messageboards (particularly the best messageboard around at grizzlies.com) explode with activity as the trade is reported and analyzed and discussed. Popular opinion is that the Lakers ripped off the Griz
3pm, February 1st
Wallace goes on Verno explaining trade.
5pm, Febuary 1st
Official Grizzlies press conference regarding the trade.
Febuary 1st and 2nd
3 Shades of Blue shatters all previous page view records.

Shades of Blue Week in Review


Time for Some Action (yes it was)
NBA Draft Preview Part II (looks like only previewing potential lottery picks won't be enough anymore)
Pau Gasol: Business vs Basketball (I think business won in the short term with the hope that basketball wins in the long term)
Stromile Suspended (and this was only the beginning)
Rebuilding: Building a Contender vs Blowing it Up (I think we have our answer and it resembles a particularly destructive act of slamming 2 big chunks of Uranium together)
Power Rankings (time for the inverted standings to take over?)
Rudy, Conley, JCN invited to T-Mobile Rookie Challenge (no team has more representatives than us)
Wallace Said No? (evidently he wasn't even asked)
Five Bags of Magical Beans for Pau Gasol (what's in that 6th bag?)
Swift for Collins Almost Done? (uh, I think it still isn't done)
GASOL TRADED (have ya heard?)
Collins vs Swift in Stats (insert sarcastic joke here)
Gasol vs Kwame Brown +2 in Stats (insert even more sarcastic joke here)
Still Seeking the Sunshine through the Clouds (the sunshine president has no intention of stepping aside)
More on the Gasol-Gasol Trade (how many Gasol's does it take to the shake up the Western Conference?)
Time for the Beanstalk to Grow - Reaction to Pau Trade (MemphisX is excited!)

Griz Week in Review

Pau Gasol plays in his last game as a Memphis Grizzly. (Getty)

Whew!!! I'm exhausted already and I haven't even got to talk of actual Griz basketball games. I think I might have to slack on the review/preview stuff this week, it's late and I'm whipped.

The Griz went 0-3 this week, losing to three tough Western conference teams at home and dropping to 13-34 for the season. Honestly, it doesn't look like it will be any better for the rest of the season. That really doesn't have anything to do with Pau, but rather a young, inexperienced team that doesn't really have the personnel to properly execute Iavaroni's style of play combined with the coaching inexperience of Iavaroni himself.

Quick Rundown:
Griz lose to Dallas 84-103
Griz lose to Denver 102-106
Griz lose to Utah 91-110

Best Game of the Week: Close loss to Denver that should have been a win
SoB recap. We should have won this game. Of course we blew the game in the end of the 4th quarter. Of course.

Worst Game of the Week: Dallas spanks Griz in 1st Qtr, cruises to victory
SoB recap. Basically this game was decided by the 1st quarter. It is notable that this was Pau Gasol's last game in a Griz uniform.

Player of the Week: Rudy Gay
Rudy was the leading scorer in all 3 games this week. But he gets the honor mostly for his Denver performance.
30 Points, 10 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals

Rudy Gay drives versus the Jazz. (Getty)

Other Griz News/Notes
--Rudy challenged Dwight Howard to 12 foot dunk during Dunk Contest. This causes Gerald Green to up the anty to 13 foot.
--Stromile was first suspended, then reportedly will be traded to the Nets for Jason Collins.
--Damon signs with the Spurs.
--Rudy, Conley and Navarro all get invited to Rookie-Sophomore game.

Other Pictures During the Week

Darko throws one down versus the Jazz. (Getty)

Lowry looks up the court. Despite playing almost the entire game at PG while Conley is out, Lowry might want to start looking at the other 29 NBA teams, as everyone has already decided he will be traded before next season. (Getty)

Navarro showing off that great length of his. (Getty)

Miller goes for a dunk against the Jazz. Will Miller be the next out the door? (Getty)

Griz Week Ahead

Quick Rundown:
Tuesday 5th vs Bucks
Friday 8th @ Dallas
Saturday 9th @ New Orleans

Mid-Season Griz Killer MVP, Chris Paul, looks to add onto his impressive resume. I sure hope that this time against the Hornets, we have better luck defending the dangerous Paul-West pick-and-roll. If Paul scores more than 40 again, I'm gonna see if the TV remote or sheetrock is stronger.

Story of the Week: How will the new look Griz respond to losing Pau? When will the new guys first play?

Sorry, I'm out of energy. That's all I got. In coming weeks I hope to focus more on the actual games played, maybe add in a stat section and some other ideas I have. If there is anything you want me to cover in the future on Sunday mornings, let me know in the comments. Go Griz!

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Time for the Beanstalk to Grow - Reaction to the Pau Gasol trade

Wow! Who would have known that so soon after my call for action that Memphis Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace would finally listen to me. Ok, he didn't actually consult with me but I am sure he has been reading 3 Shades of Blue and unfortunately I did not include the Los Angeles Lakes in my Five Bags of Magic Beans article. However, this is the exact type trade I expected for Gasol. It is not a reflection of Gasol's talent, it is just where the NBA is right now in terms of economics. There was a very limited market for a player on the back end of an escalating MAX contract that cannot lead a team. Yes, Gasol will thrive in LA. Heck, the Lakers can plug him in and have the exact same things around him every Grizzlies fan has been wanting for 7 years (a big bruising center and one of the best closers in NBA history). However, the Grizzlies were going nowhere with Gasol and his contract on the roster. Not enough flexibility financially, indifference in the fanbase, and just not enough talent to surround Gasol.

Now what do we make of the haul the Grizzlies got from the Lakers. There is one prize...Javaris Crittenton or J. Crit. For a team that wants to play uptempo, Crittenton is almost the perfect combo guard. He has size (6'4.75 in shoes at the predraft camp), he is athletic, he attacks the basket, and can switch deftly between point guard and shooting guard both offensively and defensively. Think Monta Ellis of Golden State plus 2 inches and 20 pounds without losing the quickness. If he would have stayed another year in college, he would have easily been a lottery pick this year. Do you think national reaction to this trade would have been different if we had gotten Ellis, two 1st round picks, Marc Gasol and MAX cap space? In Chris Wallace's new game, three men enter-two men leave, I expect J. Crit to beat out Lowry mainly due to his size and ability to come off the bench and play next to Conley.

The two draft picks and the draft rights to Marc Gasol will be used as sweetner. Either to get someone to take somebody off our roster (Collins, Brian Cardinal) or to get someone to give us their restricted free agent that they do not want to pay. At worst they will be dice rolls in the draft. Maybe Chris Wallace can catch "lightning in a bottle" at the end of the 1st round.

There is still work to be done obviously. I think they need to complete the clean sweep and get Mike Miller out of the locker room. This not to see he is a bad influence, a malcontent, or a bad player but the young guys need to be able to establish a pecking order going into the offseason. Even though it might not be feasible into the offseason, I think Mike Miller has very good value due to his relatively modest contract and his shooting stroke. However, I don't think Miller is as much of of "got to get rid of" as Pau Gasol.

Now it is time for the Grizzlies to see exactly what they have in Rudy Gay. Is he Corey Maggette, Antawn Jamison, or Paul Pierce? Heck, will he exceed expectations and become an All NBA type of player? Gay definitely has the tools to become a bonafide super star. However, the question is does he have the mentality to lead the Grizzlies to team success? The former we got from Pau Gasol, the latter is what we are looking for to take this franchise to the next level.

It is now the turning point for the Grizzlies and the decisions made in the next 6 months will be critical to this team finally becoming a contender. There is no room for mistakes. We must get the best player available with our draft pick, we need to get some type of future rotation player with the Lakers 1st rounder, we must get an impact player with our cap space, and we must either keep Mike Miller or get a valuable player in trade.

I will go out and say that this season will continue as expected and we will end up with around 24 wins. I expect us to get to the level we thought we would be at this season, next season. I am predicting about 35 wins even if we do not use our cap space for next season. I expect us to get back to the playoffs in 2010 and to be as good or better than the Lakers the following season before Pau Gasol's contract expires.

Friday, February 1, 2008

More on the Gasol-Gasol Trade

From Zack


Just thought I'd put up some more reaction to the Gasol-Lakers trade.

-- I would have liked to seen one (or both) of these modifications to the trade:

1. Include Ronnie Turiaf.
2. Include Brian Cardinal and then make Aaron McKie's 1 year sign/trade contract worth more.

-- The big question(s). Will more or less people attend Grizzlies games for the rest of the year? Will more or less people buy/renew their season tickets in the offseason?

-- It looks like Rudy and Hak will be playing all the available minutes at the PF spot from now on. Of course, Rudy will see some time at the 3 too, but I don't see anyone outside of Hak playing at the 4 when Rudy isn't.

-- I feel particularly cursed with Darko and Kwame on the same team. The first time they are both on the court on the same time - which i don't think will happen much, see above - lightning might just strike the arena down. The Basketball Gods will not look favorably upon this. This also explains the urgency to trade Stro as soon as possible. Stro, Darko, and Kwame together would be too much for the basketball universe to survive through.

-- We have a traffic jam of elite PG prospects. That is of course if Javaris Crittenton isn't also a SG. My impression so far this season was that he would be a good SG too. Either way, Wallace implied one of the three would be used as a trade asset later on down the road to improve another spot. Lowry, the lesser player of the three, is the obvious one to go (Conley is a better passer, Javaris is a better shooter and taller and can play SG). However the counterpoint to trading Lowry is that he has the lowest trade value of the three as well. I mean, in a trade by himself, how is someone like a Rodney Carney going to help us. Our 2008 Lakers pick could get us a player as good or better than someone Lowry could be traded for straight up. So the other avenue is as sweetener in a bigger trade. Great, then we can brag that trading Pau helped us use Lowry as a sweetener'. Anyway, I think this also makes it less likely we re-sign Navarro next year, and something in me sees a possible Sasha Pavlovich saga occurring next year with JC.

-- That trade for Rudy is looking more and more important to this franchise. Would anyone argue that we got more in return for Shane than we did for Pau?

-- Time for Rudy step up and seize control of the team.

-- I will admit I am pretty excited to watch Jarvaris Crittenton play.

-- I was wrong about Pau and Navarro being handcuffed. I was also wrong about Wallace waiting until the offseason to trade Pau.

-- Marc Gasol? Really? Marc Gasol?

-- Looks like we need to get MemphisX to devote more time to informing us about the upcoming draft class. No reason to stop at the top 10 anymore. We need to know about the top 30 picks.

-- Time to watch those inverted standings!

-- Wallace acknowledged (or should that be admitted?) to changing his mind about only getting expiring contracts in return to Pau. I'm sure the obvious conclusion is that Heisley forced that change of heart, but I'm not so sure. Interesting turn of events, nonetheless. Check back here all weekend long for more Gasol commentary.

Some random links about the trade

Basketball Prospectus
ESPN - Marc Stein
Fox - Rosen
SI - Burns
SI - Scouts Take
CBS - Mejia
Herrington Quick Press Conference Notes (more analysis promised to be coming later...looking forward to it)
Wallace on Chris Vernon Show (audio)
Verno's Original Cryptic Post from Last Night
Verno's Full Trade Details
Tillery's Original Breaking News of Deal
Tillery's Follow-up
AOL Fanhouse Roundtable
AOL Fanhouse on the Big Summer for the Griz
AOL Fanhouse on Original Gasol News
AOL Fanhouse on Verno's Post
Kelly Dwyer on Trade
NBA.com on the Trade (and with a link back to us)
Forum Blue and Gold
Marcus Camby on Trade
RealGM Grades the Trade

Gasol vs. Kwame Brown + 2 in Stats

The franchise players is gone!  Here is what the Grizz got in return!
See full stats onGriz Board here.

Kwame Brown      #54   Center

2007-08 Statistics
PPG    5.7
RPG    5.70
APG    1.2

EFF     + 8.74

Born: Mar 10, 1982
Height:  6-11 / 2,11
Weight:  270 lbs. / 122,5 kg.
High Sch: Glynn Academy (GA)
Years Pro: 6

Career Season Averages

Yr

G

GS

MPG

FG%

3P%

FT%

OFF

DEF

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TO

PF

PPG

07-08231422.10.5150.0000.4061.34.35.71.20.70.81.612.505.7
Car38918524.10.4840.1250.6021.93.85.71.10.60.71.472.307.6
 

 Pau Gasol      #16     Forward - Center

2007-08 Statistics
PPG     18.9
RPG     8.80
APG    3.0
EFF     + 22.33
Born: Jul 6, 1980
Height:  7-0 / 2,13
Weight:  260 lbs. / 117,9 kg.
From: Spain
Years Pro: 6

Career Season Averages

Yr

G

GS

MPG

FG%

3P%

FT%

OFF

DEF

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TO

PF

PPG

07-08393936.70.5010.2670.8192.46.48.83.00.41.42.052.2018.9
Car47647035.50.5090.2300.7302.56.18.63.10.51.82.602.4018.8

                 +

Javaris Crittenton    #1   Guard

2007-08 Statistics
PPG     3.3
RPG     1.00
APG    0.8

EFF     + 2.73

Born: Dec 31, 1987
Height:   6-5 / 1,96
Weight:   200 lbs. / 90,7 kg.
College: Georgia Tech
Years Pro: Rookie

Career Season Averages

Yr

G

GS

MPG

FG%

3P%

FT%

OFF

DEF

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TO

PF

PPG

07-082207.80.4910.3330.6790.30.61.00.80.30.01.000.503.3

Aaron McKie      #2   Guard

2007-08 Statistics
PPG     0.0
RPG     0.0
APG    0.0

EFF     + ?

Born: Oct 2, 1972
Height:   6-5 / 1,96
Weight:   209 lbs. / 94,8 kg.
College: Temple
Years Pro: 13

Career Season Averages

Yr

G

GS

MPG

FG%

3P%

FT%

OFF

DEF

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TO

PF

PPG

05-06108.00.0000.0000.0000.00.00.00.00.00.00.000.000.0
Car752628.50.4370.3850.8010.63.03.63.21.10.21.352.509.5