The Dorsey Dilemma

Check out those pictures. The absolute embodiment of intensity, intimidation and toughness, isn't it? That's exactly what the Memphis Grizzlies have been missing, haven't they? So Joey Dorsey should be the obvious pick when the Grizzlies selection comes up at #28, right? Well, no....not exactly.

Yesterday, I linked to Geoff Calkins' column where he countered the claims of the local fanbase that the Grizzlies should draft Dorsey based upon his local connection:

So now comes another former Memphis Tiger, Joey Dorsey, available in another NBA Draft. Should the Grizzlies take him with the second of their first-round picks?

Of course they should, if -- and only if -- they think he is the best player available at the time.
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If Dorsey is the best player available at No. 28 -- and he might well be -- then, by all means, take the guy. He's always been a pleasure to cover. He's charming the press again at the Orlando pre-draft camp.
But don't make the pick because he's a Memphis kid.

I agree 100% with that line of reasoning. If he is the best talent available at #28, then the Grizzlies should definitely consider him at that point. He has all the makings of a more dynamic Reggie Evans-like player and a recent post on the Wages of Wins Journal predicts that Dorsey will be a very productive player. I truly believe that if Dorsey lands with the "right team", then he could be a tremendous source of energy and intensity.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that the Grizzlies are that "right team". While discussing the breakthrough season that Kendrick Perkins has had for the Boston Celtics, I made the case that Perkins made the leap this year due to the presence of Kevin Garnett in the same locker room. Many Grizz fans were bemoaning the fact that yet another "quality player" had slipped through our grasp, but having seen what a difference KG has made in Perk's level of play, I'm convinced that he wouldn't have experienced the same success if he had remained in Memphis, who originally drafted him. Garnett has provided Perkins with a veteran to look up to as a role model, but also acts like a big brother in a fraternity, meaning he'll dress him down in a heartbeat if he feels that it is necessary. That's the real "veteran leadership" that you hear coaches, players and experts talk about in reverent tones when discussing teams who have that special something that is needed to win titles.

Bringing this back to the Grizzlies, the question is: Do the Memphis Grizzlies have that type of veteran leadership? My honest assessment is that they do not. What does this have to do with Joey Dorsey? Well, he has been described by more than one writer/coach/fan as being a "knucklehead". Even though he is a fun-loving, gregarious guy that is beloved in this city, I have to agree with that label. He had trouble staying motivated in college and got into a few scrapes that should have been easily avoided. Taking him with a first round pick means that not only will he stay in the city that was the host to some of his well-publicized transgressions, but that he'll have a guaranteed contract paying him millions of dollars, too. Without having someone to be his "big brother", it is very easy to imagine the trouble that Joey could get himself into. Of course, the idea that a 24-year old needs someone to keep him out of trouble is a little disconcerting to begin with.

Therein lies the issue that the Memphis Grizzlies will have to contemplate if Dorsey is still there when pick #28 comes up. I have heard from plenty of fans that if they hear excuses about not picking "Player X" because of "character issues" then they will hit the roof. I don't know which way the front office is leaning, but it will not be an easy decision. Guess we'll have to wait until June 26th to see how it all plays out.

Links: It's Finally Over Edition

Bethlehem Shoals (SLAM Online) cranks up the QuoteMonger and delivers the goods once again. This was the funniest thing I read all day and it wasn't even close.

David Berri (Wages of Wins) forecasts the NBA playoffs and examines the nucleus in Memphis.

Indy Star: A bear of a first NBA season for Mike Conley

The Grizzlies lost the lottery position tiebreaker with Minnesota yesterday. C'est la vie.

Empty the Bench has 5 Questions with Hakim Warrick and Mike Conley, Jr.

Hoops Addict lists Javaris Crittenton among their Players with Upside. They also have a nice profile of Marc Gasol.

The CA follows up with some quality thoughts of their own on "The Other Gasol".

City Pages (Minneapolis/St. Paul) has some good analysis of Rudy Gay.

You should let Mike Conley Jr. pick your bracket next year. (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

Section of FedEx Forum stands collapse -- With Leather says that Barry Zito is to blame.

Current and former Grizzlies Mike Miller, Stromile Swift and Chucky Atkins participated in the DUBS auto show to benefit Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

Check out Rudy Gay's new shoes - The Nike Viz Air


Remember way back at the beginning of the season when we gave our preview of the Grizzlies for CelticsBlog? Plenty of other bloggers gave previews of their teams, too. Well, now it is time to revisit those previews and see just how wrong we were and figure out where we went wrong.

NBA Reviews
Atlantic Division
Central Division
Southeast Division
Southwest Division
Northwest Division
Pacific Division

Ballhype Grades for the Previews

Wondering about the Wages of Wins

3 Shades of Blue in general (and myself in particular) have always been fans of the work of David Berri, one of the co-authors of the book Wages of Wins. I recently had the opportunity to ask David some questions via email about the Grizzlies and the Pau Gasol trade in particular. Here are the results of that conversation.

3SoB: David – First let me say how much I appreciate you taking the time to do this. I suppose given your Bakersfield residence you felt obligated the fill in the blanks left from the Pau Gasol trade. After all if Memphis can give the Lakers a championship you can at least give a bit of your time to the Grizzlies blog writers!
David: Glad to talk to you and your audience (which I gather is growing very rapidly).

3SoB: You wrote a book called the ‘Wages of Wins’ a few years back in which you attempt to use statistics to determine a player’s value and how many wins he actually produces for his team. Would you give us a Cliff Notes version of how this works?
David: Here is the overview of the Wins Produced model:
The model starts with the basic idea that wins in the NBA are determined by offensive and defensive efficiency (points divided by possessions). From this relationship, one can estimate the value of points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, personal fouls, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts. Additional statistical work gives us the value of a blocked shot and an assist.
Additional notes
1. The value of each statistic is derived from an econometric (or statistical) model. And the values are an estimate of the impact the statistic has on the outcomes we observe for the team.
2. The analysis indicates that points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and field goal attempts have virtually the same impact (in absolute terms) on wins. Personal fouls, free throw attempts, blocked shots, and assists are worth somewhat less than the other factors.
3. When we look at the impact of these statistics we learn two lessons:
a. In terms of scoring… efficiency matters. If you score points inefficiently you do not actually help your team win.
b. Possession variables – rebounds, turnovers, steals – impact outcomes. Players that don’t score, but get you rebounds and steals (and/or avoid turnovers), can have a significant impact on wins.
4. One last point… it is assumed that a player statistics are his statistics. In other words, if you score 10 points (or get 10 rebounds), you get credit for these points (or rebounds). If you take 5 shots, you are charged the cost of these shots. It’s important to note that there is some interaction between the player statistics, but I have found this effect to be rather small. For the most part, what you see in the NBA is what you get. So it makes sense to credit a player for his statistics (by the way, I would not make the same argument for NFL players)

3SoB: You wrote on your website that this trade makes the Lakers the favorites to win the West of they can get Bynum back. You went so far as to say that Gasol’s presence puts the Lakers among the elite in the West even without Bynum. From someone who remembers the Grizzlies 0-12 playoff record with Gasol, is this actually a playoff prediction you are making or just a regular season record assumption?

David: Let me start by reviewing the playoff history of Gasol on Memphis.
In 2005-06 the Grizzlies were the 5th best team (in terms of efficiency differential) in the NBA. But they faced Dallas in the first round, who happened to be the 3rd best team in the Association.
In 2004-05 the Grizzlies were the 7th best, facing the second best (Phoenix).
And in 2003-04 the Grizzlies were the 9th best, but faced the very best team in the league (San Antonio).
In sum, Gasol and Memphis were never favored in the first round. Yes, it is not beyond reason that they could have won a playoff game. But it was not expected that Memphis was going to win any of these playoff series. So judging Gasol on the Grizzlies lack of playoff success is a bit unfair.

Now about the Lakers…
Assuming Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza are healthy (a big if), here is what Gasol does for this team.
Gasol not only takes the minutes of Kwame Brown, but also probably some of the minutes of Vladimir Radmanovic and/or Ronny Turiaf. Gasol is more productive than all three, so that’s a big help.

In addition, his presence allows the Lakers to play Lamar Odom more minutes at small forward, where his value will be higher. Finally, and this is a smaller positive, Javaris Crittenton was easily the least productive guard on LA’s roster. So Crittenton’s departure helps a bit.

It’s important to note that the Lakers ability to challenge Boston depends on the health of Bynum. If Bynum is not healthy, then the Lakers do not look much different from the other elite teams in the West.

3SoB: What does this leave the Grizzlies with this year, according to your math? Is it possible the Grizzlies can surprise this year with unproven young players getting a real chance to perform?
David: There is a great saying from Mike Tyson…'Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.' (I took this from a Peter King SI.com column, and King was quoting Michael Strahan).

When I read this quote I was reminded of everyone who fought Tyson when he was in his prime. These fighters would tell themselves if they tried hard and believed; they could beat Tyson. Each of these fighters would enter the ring with a positive attitude and a clear plan to achieve victory. And then Tyson would hit them in the face and the plan would go to hell.

I tell this story because the Grizzlies are now in an Association where most every other team is Tyson. And the Grizzlies are telling themselves that if they try really hard, and execute their plan, they can shock the world.

Unfortunately, soon after the ball is thrown in the air at the start of each game, reality is going to set in. Memphis has too many holes to compete successfully most nights.

Look at the center and power forward positions. With Gasol gone, Kwame Brown becomes the most productive player Memphis employs at the four and five spot. And Brown is well below average. The other centers are Jason Collins and Darko Milicic, two players whose production of wins this year is in the negative range. At power forward the team is forced to play Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay, two players who do not rebound well enough to play the four spot. At the other three spots on the floor there is some production. Mike Miller is one of the most productive shooting guard-small forwards in the league. And Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are productive point guards.

But right now, those three players are the only above average performers on the team. Remember, wins in the NBA are not magical. Wins happen because your players are productive. Or to put it another way, if your players are not productive, you don’t get to win very much.

Given what your players have done this season, it would be truly surprising if Memphis was able to win games consistently the rest of the way.

All that being said, Memphis may win 10 more games the rest of the season. So 10 times you will get to say “if only they played like this every night, they would be pretty good.” But that line of reasoning is incorrect. Bad teams will win games and good teams will lose once in awhile. It’s what a team does over time that is the mark of how good or bad a team is, and I think over time – given this roster – the Grizzlies are going to disappoint their fans.

3SoB: Memphis is definitely suffering this season but I seem to remember something you wrote that implied a player’s best performance years don’t begin until their 3rd season in the league. That means Lowry, Conley, Gay, Hakim and even Darko if you eliminate his wasted two years in Detroit (he is only 22 after all) lie ahead of them. Throwing in some decent drafts and the team can progress in the future can’t it or am I just wishing on stars now?

David: If the players improved and/or the team adds more productive players, then of course the team improves.

Let me talk about improvement first. It is the case that young players can get better. But I think people go too far with this tendency. Basically people tend to see all young players as “future stars.”
Here is some data that might damper your enthusiasm. Looking back at the drafts from 1991-1995, here are the number of players in each draft to play at least 10,000 minutes in his career and post a career WP48 higher than 0.150 (average WP48 is 0.100 and I think 0.150 is a mark of someone who is “good”).
1991 – 4
1992 – 5
1993 – 3
1994 – 6
1995 – 2
There were 93 players drafted from 1991-95 who played 10,000 minutes in their NBA career. Of these, only 20 were significantly above average players throughout their careers. In other words, only 22% of players who played significant minutes in their career managed to be significantly above average players.
When people look at young players like Lowry, Conley, Gay, Warrick, and Milicic, they tend to think that each of these players could become “good.” But the data tells us that most young players never become “good.”
The early returns on these players do suggest that Conley and Lowry are going to be above average players. And I think Gay can be above average if he plays small forward. But I am not sure that Warrick and Milicic are going to develop into players who make a significant contribution to team success.

As for picking better players, that’s always possible. Let me talk about that below.

3SoB: Along those lines how long do most NBA players maintain their level of performance? Is there a general rule that says after a certain age most players start to decline in performance?

David: In general players get better when they are young and worse when they are old. But I don’t know the parameters of the curve (yet). This is one topic I wish to look at in the future.

3SoB: Chris Wallace has a lot of cap space available to him now. What upcoming free agents do you believe produce the most wins and who produces the least? (You can use the list provided at http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=2008freeagents for a guide here). What about college players?
David: Here are the top 20 unrestricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.

Player / Minutes Played / WP48 / Wins Produced
Shawn Marion (ETO) 1,473 / 0.314 / 9.6
Kurt Thomas 794 / 0.302 / 5.0
Baron Davis (ETO) 1,601 / 0.237 / 7.9
James Jones (P) 674 / 0.212 / 3.0
Brent Barry 541 / 0.207 / 2.3
DeSagana Diop 740 / 0.177 / 2.7
Antawn Jamison 1,612 / 0.175 / 5.9
Eddie House 814 / 0.163 / 2.8
Corey Maggette (ETO) 1,236 / 0.157 / 4.0
Anthony Carter 860 / 0.140 / 2.5
Grant Hill (P) 1,154 / 0.133 / 3.2
Bonzi Wells 907 / 0.132 / 2.5
Allen Iverson (ETO) 1,710 / 0.128 / 4.5
James Posey (P) 791 / 0.126 / 2.1
Carlos Arroyo 616 / 0.121 / 1.6
Sam Cassell 755 / 0.119 / 1.9
Anthony Johnson 914 / 0.119 / 2.3
Mickael Pietrus 637 / 0.098 / 1.3
Beno Udrih 1,188 / 0.091 / 2.3

Here are the top 15 restricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.

Player / Minutes Played / WP48 Wins / Produced
Jose Calderon 1,277 / 0.319 / 8.5
Andris Biedrins 1,130 / 0.303 / 7.1
Josh Childress 1,068 / 0.219 / 4.9
Emeka Okafor 1,359 / 0.203 / 5.7
Dorell Wright 649 / 0.170 / 2.3
Carlos Delfino 1,015 / 0.170 / 3.6
Andre Iguodala 1,607 / 0.165 / 5.5
Luol Deng 1,145 / 0.152 / 3.6
Ryan Gomes 1,128 / 0.131 / 3.1
Paul Millsap (T) 862 / 0.130 / 2.3
Monta Ellis 1,431 / 0.122 / 3.6
Josh Smith 1,426 / 0.114 / 3.4
Daniel Gibson 1,274 / 0.073 / 1.9
Kelenna Azubuike (P) 987 / 0.070 / 1.4
Ronny Turiaf 637 / 0.059 / 0.8

As you can see, there are a few free agents who will help. DeSagana Diop is an interesting possibility, since he has been above average before this season. James Jones is a big reason the Blazers have improved, but he has not been productive in the past. So I am not sure he will continue to perform like this in the future.

As for the draft, Erich Doerr posted a study at the Wages of Wins Journal a few days ago. One name that leaped out was Kevin Love.

Love would give the Grizzlies what they need at power forward. So he would help. Of course he has to declare for the draft. And the Grizzlies have to select him. And he has to produce as a pro. So there are quite a few ifs with respect to Love and the draft.

I think you should see, though, that it is possible for the Grizzlies to get better in the future. But a few things I would emphasize:
1. I am not optimistic about this team as it is currently constructed.
2. It is possible for this team to improve, but it is going to need to get more productive players.
3. I do not think the Gasol trade is going to help the Grizzlies get more productive players. At least, I am not optimistic about trying to improve a team via low first round draft choices.

3SoB: Any other comments you would like to make?
David: Thanks for the opportunity to answer your questions. I wish I could give fans of Memphis more hope in the short-run.

David Berri is a professor at CSU-Bakerfield and writes the Wages of Wins Journal where he is always putting up timely and informative blogs. We at 3 Shades of Blue highly recommend you checking out his site.

Links: Wages of Wins Reviews the SW Division

Short and sweet today as we prepare for back-to-back weekend games, as well as the Tigers taking on Georgetown tomorrow morning.

David Berri has been reviewing each division in the NBA over the past weeks and has arrived at the Southwest Division today. A few interesting observations from his post:

There were no more than two teams with a positive efficiency differential in the divisions reviewed thus far. In the Southwest, though, four of the five teams have a differential that’s above zero. And so far, ten of the teams examined have been worse than the Memphis Grizzlies. In sum, this is one tough division.

In other words, the Boys from Beale Street aren't quite as bad off as some fans would have you believe. They aren't good -- but they aren't horrific either.

Dave also promises something that should be of unique interest to Memphis fans:

My plan is to write a specific column on each of these teams that will re-visit the Shane Battier for Rudy Gay trade. Look for that column in a few days.

I'm sure that Chip will be all over that post like a fat kid on a cupcake. Check out the link for the full review of the toughest division in the NBA.

That's all for today. Look for a Christmas Wish List next week, as well as a fantastic interview with Geoff Calkins. Enjoy the three Memphis basketball games over the next two days and the Tigers bowl game tonight in N'awlins. Happy Holidays everyone.

Website/Blog of the Day: PhDribble

Links: Point Guard Evaluation, MVP/ROY Rankings, Sam Smith is still Sam Smith

Our old pal David Berri took a look at the Memphis point guards today from his usual statistical perspective on the Wages of Wins Journal. When it was all said and done, Dave arrived at the same conclusion I did in the preseason:

Still, if the numbers for Lowry and Conley hold, Memphis will eventually have to make a decision about who to start and who ultimately to keep. At this point only one thing is certain. The team is not going to keep starting Stoudamire.

It's nice to see confirmation of my evaluation of the PG position from someone who has a lot more clout in academic circles. Another fine post that I recommend reading in its entirety.

We here at 3 Shades of Blue are participating in a season-long ranking of Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year candidates that was organized by Alex of BrewHoop. The other blogs participating are as follows:

BrewHoop
Sactown Royalty
Third Quarter Collapse
20 Second Timeout
Posting and Toasting
Queen City Hoops
TWolvesBlog
Sixers 4 Guidos
Bullets Forever
Green Bandwagon
The Bratwurst
Indy Cornrows
Blog A Bull
Clips Nation

You can view our first rankings of the season with commentary on BrewHoop now.

Yet another far-fetched Pau Gasol to the Chicago Bulls rumor/fantasy out of the Windy City -- this time from delusional old man Sam Smith who is no stranger to making up his own trade proposals involving Memphis Grizzlies. I'm sure everyone remembers his obsession with Shane Battier a few years ago. Really, this one is more like a plea for the Bulls' management to make an offer for the Spaniard than it is a trade rumor. That makes it even worse. What's really funny is how he proclaims how much the Bulls need him while downplaying his abilities at the same time. Reminds me of a certain group of posters on the Grizzlies message boards. Here's an example of Smith's continual contradictions:

Now with a new general manager, a new coach in Marc Iavaroni and a new style,
it's clear that Gasol is lost and likely expendable. At least that's the belief around the NBA, and teams expect a shot at Gasol by the trading deadline. The question is how much you really can give up for a seventh-year player who never has been a good rebounder or defender and hasn't been on the winning side in a playoff game.

If Gasol is such a poor rebounder/defender and is labeled a "loser" then why would Chicago benefit from his presence? Of course, if he had bothered to read Ron Tillery's fine article in yesterday's Commercial Appeal, he'd know that Gasol is working very hard to adjust to Iavaroni's new system, and isn't pleased at all with his current level of production. Of course, that wouldn't get Bulls fans excited about Gasol's "availability", would it? Don't worry Grizz fans -- just another bogus rumor that shouldn't receive any attention beyond this blogger taking the time to shoot it full of holes. If the Grizzlies do decide to trade Gasol, it will take more than Tyrus Thomas and Andres Nocioni to acquire him.

Update: Over on AOL's NBA Fanhouse, Bethlehem Shoals called out Sam Smith for being a doddering old fool for many of the same reasons I did regarding the Pau Gasol wishlist piece. Once again, it is nice to see that I am in agreement with people held in higher respect than myself in the blogosphere.

Links: International Influx and Issues, All Star Process, The Number 3

Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski discusses the position that Jorge Garbajosa has put the Raptors in with his decision to play this summer even though Spain had already qualified for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. After this interesting look into what GM's like Bryan Colangelo and R.C. Buford face each time they go overseas to scout foreign players, A.W. makes mention of the Grizzlies bringing in Juan Carlos Navarro and what effect Pau Gasol had in bringing him across the pond, as well as Navarro's presence making this a better situation for Gasol than last year's nightmare.

Jack McCallum (SI.com) decided to defend himself (and his fellow media members) in reference to the level of outrage that occured when they decided to place Tim Duncan (as well as Amare Stoudemire and Pau Gasol) under the designation of "Center" on the All-Star ballot, rather than the Power Forward position he typically plays. He lists the criteria that the NBA requires for candidates (which I had never read before) and then explains their reasons for their selections, which occasionally leaves more qualified players out in the cold.

David Berri (Wages of Wins) looks at a question that I saw on TrueHoop yesterday and intend to tackle as he did -- although not from a statistical perspective. That question is "Is Three A Magic Number?" when competing for an NBA title? Good read on his part and expect to see something on 3 Shades of Blue in the near future about the subject.

Links: NBA Edition

Not much Grizzlies news today, but there are a few interesting NBA stories out there.

First up, Phoenix Suns head coach Mike D'Antoni is very displeased with the fans out in the desert. From Jerry Brown of the East Valley Tribune:

D’Antoni said he also wasn’t happy when the fans booed his team in the home opener when they were blitzed 119-98 by the Lakers.

“(I vented about the fans) because the fans deserved it,” said D’Antoni, a day after describing Tuesday’s crowd as “deader than we are” when his team struggled to put away the short-handed Knicks.

“If they’re going to boo us, hell, what’s the difference, I can boo them.“(Tuesday), they didn’t come ready. You have to come every game, you have to bring it … and they didn’t bring it. There was no atmosphere. Everybody — us, them — was just kind of down and blah and there’s not reason to be.”

Wow.....can you imagine what would happen if Marc Iavaroni said that to the fans of Memphis? I don't even want to contemplate it fully, to be honest.

The Grizzlies are playing the New Orleans Hornets tomorrow night. The Hornets are led by Chris Paul, who was the 4th pick in the 2004 draft, behind Utah Jazz PG Deron Williams. Dave Berri has another interesting comparison between these inextricably linked young PG's over on Wages of Wins. This is his 3rd post on these two great young players and they just keep getting better and better in my humble opinion.

Ok, one bit of Grizzlies news -- Chris Herrington has his Post-game Three-Pointer up for last night's loss to Milwaukee. As usual, Herrington has been reading my game notes from over my left shoulder -- quality stuff as always.

And one more -- the guys at Beale Stree Beat have a recap of last night's game as well.

Links: Kyle Lowry, The Dark One, Golden Generation, Open Practice

Our good friend David Berri has some interesting news regarding Kyle Lowry on his recent post titled "Future NBA Stars". Please read the post in full and then go to the table he has posted here about "Distant Future Stars", where he has Lowry listed as having the highest WP48 stat of guys who have played limited minutes to this point. Of course, we all know that Lowry only played in 10 games last season before suffering a broken wrist. It's a good read, as always, and is yet another encouraging thing to consider going into this pivotal season.

Yahoo! Sports has an article about Darko Milicic on their NBA page. The theme of the missive is "Darko's Resurrection" and it contains some interesting quotes from the Serbian Gangster, teammate Pau Gasol, coach Marc Iavaroni and GM Chris Wallace. It would seem that everyone is being very supportive of Darko in Memphis -- hopefully that will translate into on-the-court success for him and the Grizzlies.

I don't know that we can truly appreciate the level of rock star fame that Pau Gasol and his Spanish teammates enjoy in their home country. This article from globeandmail.com gives a better idea of just how much celebrity status and clout they carry in Spain. Pau is one of the "Golden Generation", which is the group of players born in 1980-81 who have carried Team Spain to worldwide prominence in international basketball.

"Back in the day when we were 16, 17, 18 we won the gold medal in nearly every championship we played," said Pau Gasol, the Memphis Grizzlies forward who some consider the best player in Spanish history.
"We beat the [United] States on different occasions; we were European [junior] champions and world [junior] champions at one time."

As you can see, they are Spain's version of the Dream Team in terms of winning and expectations. Oh yeah, and when it comes to adoring fans as well:

The Spanish players on both NBA teams have been swarmed by media in Madrid. Gasol is featured in an advertisement three storeys tall around the corner from the arena. Everyone wants to touch the players.

"They're like rock stars," Raptors president Bryan Colangelo said. "When we landed there had to be 30 attendants for our airplane wearing these fluorescent vests and as soon as we came off the plane they were just standing there. The second we hit the ground they hit them like a swarm of bees: pictures, autographs, you name it. These guys are larger than life here, and deservedly so."

Don't forget that today's Open Practice starts at noon (doors open at 11 am) and it is free, so you have no excuse not to get your lazy butt down there to see the only professional sport in town ply their trade. I'll have pictures and commentary posted later this weekend about the event. Get out there and support the Grizzlies!

Preseason Predicton Confusion

This time of year everyone has opinions.

Joel Brigham at Hoopsworld.com predicts the Grizzlies will flirt with 50 wins and return to the playoffs. A combination of a healthy and motivated Gasol (apparently averaging 21 pts and nearly 10 rebounds last season was accomplished without Gasol being motivated), promising new players, a new coach and improvement from the returning players and the propensity for people to overlook Memphis will create a symmetry of success.

On the other side of the fence we have David Berri and his Wages of Wins statistical work that suggests that while Gasol and Miller will be strong players again that the combination of players who are sub-standard and/or inexperienced will drag down the overall team effect. Mr. Berri also believes that coaching has far less to do with outcomes than most people believe. Having read much of what Mr. Berri has written it is difficult to argue with the logic of his assumptions. His prediction is a better year than last but not a playoff contender or even pretender. Some improvement but still a bad team.

In the middle you have people like Phil Partington at Suite101, an on-line open posting magazine (I have no idea what that literally means by the way). Mr. Partington believes that Memphis will be one of the most improved teams in the league this season but still fail to reach the playoffs. His prediction fails at one level. He predicts a 13 game improvement and a final record of 38-44. Apparently English Composition is his forte, not math. 13 wins only brings the Grizzlies to 35 wins Phil.

Where do I stand on the upcoming season? I have looked at the team's point guards, wing men and interior players and I see talent at all three spots. Far more talent than we have had in total at any time since the Grizzlies came from Vancouver. However I also feel the team has the look of a 3rd year expansion team. The team has talent and some experience but is lacking cohesion and chemistry. It will probably develop during the season but in a difficult conference and the most difficult division there isn't time for slow starts and team building. I also have a bad feeling about the trip to Spain during training camp. This team needs to spend time bonding on the court not in a plane and traveling over the Atlantic Ocean twice in a week takes a heavy toll on your body, even if you are a professional athlete. That disruption puts the team behind the 8 ball right off the bat.

I have serious qualms about rookies playing the point, especially when they aren't score first point guards. Granted Kyle Lowry had an awesome start last season but he also played select minutes and very few games. Mike Conley and Lowry have no outside shot and teams will be able to play off them daring them to take outside shots. Until they hit those shots with regularity they will find it difficult to create mayhem in the paint.

Our perimeter players are strong but Rudy Gay needs to become more consistent and use his ability better. Summer league showed both what Rudy is capable of and what he is content on doing. He needs to be the dominant player that his physical ability says he should be and not the disappearing act he so often was in college and last season. Navarro and Kinsey should have an interesting battle for minutes off the bench and if Rudy isn't careful TK may just beat him out of minutes allowing Miller to play more at his natural small forward position.

The real mystery is still the interior. Pau Gasol will be the leading scorer and rebounder on the team again. He should average 20+ points and possibly reach the elusive 10 boards a game as well. That is definite. Everyone else comes with question marks. Can Darko be more than his previous four seasons in the NBA have shown? Can Hakim play defense well enough to justify court time? No one questions Hak's offensive ability and speed at the power forward position but last season he gave up more points than he scored. Will Stromile Swift play? Can Cardinal return from another knee surgery? Who is Andre Brown?

The Grizzlies are a team with many questions and a broken training camp schedule. That means a slow start to the season the way I look at it. Things should become better as the season progresses and the team's depth will pay dividends during the dog days of the season. Unfortunately it won't be enough to even reach the fourth spot in the division and fifth place teams don't make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

I expect between 33 and 36 wins, a bright future but a lottery pick next year. Sorry Washington but you will most likely have to wait at least one year to get our #1 pick.

Update: NBA Glue says not to sleep on the Grizzlies.

And the Hits Keep Coming

Just a word of thanks to some more media markets giving out little web page some serious props. Call it a Verno Bow for the self-promotion if you like.

Wages of Wins mentions us as the lead-in for their review/preview of the Grizzlies season. This web site is an excellent source for statistical analysis of players and other interesting information. They were so kind they even added a link to our web site from theirs.

Unfortunately the preview of the upcoming season wasn't as kind. Brutally honest perhaps but not kind. Unfortunately it is difficult to argue with their reasoning either. David Berri believes that it is unlikely that Darko Milicic will progress from a below average performer during his first four years in the league to an above average performer in his fifth. Sure there are exceptions but we are talking about statistics here and if you roll the dice enough you will eventually get them to land on top of each other but I wouldn't want to bet that happens on the next roll.

What makes matters worse is that they accurately predicted last seasons performance. To quote the preview

Does this mean Memphis cannot have a “good” season this year? As we note in the book, whether something is “good” or “bad” depends upon your point of reference. If your reference point is the top teams in the West, Memphis will probably have a “bad” season. If your reference point is the Vancouver Grizzlies, then Memphis will indeed be “great” in 2006-07.

Last season Memphis won 22 games. One fewer than the best season ever in Vancouver.

I hate it when stats don't lie!

The Commercial Appeal also referenced our web site today with the mention of our meeting a Buffalo Wild Wings with Chris Wallace and the subsequent TrueHoop commentary about the rarity of a GM doing something like that. If I might make a suggestion Ron Tillery, before describing the people's reactions at the meeting you may want to interview at least one person in the group who was present. Just a small piece of advice.

These references joined with the kind words from Chris Vernon, Blog-A-Bull and others really has our website feeling some love heading into the season. Even if our beloved Grizzlies aren't getting as much.

Thanks to all of our readers for checking us out. Especially that one reader from Auckland, New Zealand. If you ever get to Memphis we have to get together!!!

Overpaid/Underpaid

Dave Berri, one of the masterminds behind Wages of Wins has three very interesting posts regarding who is overpaid and underpaid in the NBA using his own special brand of metrics. Naturally, many of the "underpaid" players are still on their rookie contracts, but it is an interesting read, nonetheless. Check out the three links below and draw your own conclusions, as we will be referring back to Berri's work throughout the season.

Overpaid in 2006/07

Underpaid in 2006/07

The Exploitation of Shaq