Bargain Shopping, Part 1: The Denver Nuggets

By Lee Eric Smith

I have a buddy who is a wine expert. I was joking with him once about getting a great $50 bottle of wine. He simply replied: "Anybody can buy a great bottle of wine for $50. The question is, can you find a great bottle of wine for $10?"

These days, the cream of the crop of NBA GMs tend to share that great quality of being able to build a good team by finding great bargains -- R.C. Buford in San Antonio, Joe Dumars in Detroit, even Jerry West was prescient enough to swap proven big man Vlade Divac for some high school kid named Kobe Bryant, bucking the wisdom of not trading big for small. Maybe Chris Wallace can catch some of that magic himself.

So after reading Henry Abbott's True Hoop posting about "teams in turmoil," it got me thinking: some teams might be ripe for trades -- not all due to basketball reasons either. Hence, this, the first in a periodic series I'll write this month called, "Bargain Shopping." Our first stop at the Clearance Mall: The Denver Nuggets.

Why Denver:
You think it sucks for the Grizz not to get out of the first round? At least our excuse was that we only had Pau, Mike Miller and Shane. Imagine having a team with Iverson, Melo and Camby, and not being able to do it. They're WAAAAY over the cap, which means they'll have to pay $6.3 million in luxury tax. Key players (AI, Melo, Nene) are all pissed about the Camby trade. Then there's Furious George's tendency to grate his players. Oh, and it's not like the West is getting weaker, either. Sounds like a recipe for cleaning house.

Proposed Deal:
Allen Iverson ($21M) for Antoine Walker ($9M) + Kyle Lowry($1.1M) + Hakim Warrick ($2.1M).



















Crunching Numbers:
This is mostly about money. For those who are wondering how those contracts add up, put away your calculators: they don't. Except for the fact that Denver is $10 million over the cap, and we're $10 million under it. Means we could take on AI's salary without going over.

Why Memphis Does It:
It's Allen Freakin' Iverson! On other message boards, I've proposed getting AI a couple of times, and I stick to it for the same reasons: Galvanizes the fan base, makes us relevant, he plays with heart and fire, and then there's the fact that he scores in bunches, even at 32. He's in a contract year, so it's not like we'd be on the hook past this year anyway. Would allow us to bring O.J. along slowly, gets us veteran leadership, etc. There's no downside here.

Why Denver Does It:
I can think of at least $6.3 million reasons. Taking Iverson's contract off the books would put them under the cap, saving them that amount of money. And while the Nuggets would no doubt ask for somebody like Mayo or Gay, Hak and Kyle are two young pieces to work with (along with the first shot at resigning them), at two positions where they need young pieces. Plus, with Antoine's expiring contract, they get the same cap relief they would with Iverson next summer, only without having to pay $6 million in between. Hak and Melo have played together before at Syracuse, and are good friends. Kyle brings defensive toughness, which they need also. The Nuggests need to rebuild sooner or later, and this would not be a bad start, coming out with at least $10 million for next year's free agent crop.

I could run a couple different scenarios that would involve getting Carmelo and/or Nene, but I just don't see Denver giving up Melo, or us giving up what it would take to get him -- not with Rudy progressing so nicely, and OJ and Conley showing such promise.

I know some would be concerned with AI's age, attitude, durability, etc. But to me the pros FAR outweigh the cons. And he would be loved in Memphis just as much as he was in Philly, if not more, giving us instant "street cred."

More to come in the series . . . in the meantime, what do you think? AI in Beale St. Blue? Post below . . .

Carmelo Anthony to Memphis?

Ever since Bill Simmons wrote this column last week, Grizzlies fans have been abuzz with the thoughts of acquiring the "star player" that they missed out on in the much-ballyhooed 2003 draft. Again, even though I am loathe to do so (and because this is the kind of thing that the Sports Guy loves to criticize bloggers for doing), I have to take exception to his suggested trade proposal:

The Bernard King Award
To Melo for (what's soon to be) another quick playoff exit, another dicey off-court incident and an inevitable summer of trade rumors. Remember, Bernard battled drug/alcohol demons and bounced around for his first few years before eventually landing with (cueing up the Marv Albert voice) ... the New York Knickerbockers. It's unclear how to define Melo's problems beyond the whole "you can take the kid out of Baltimore, but you can't take the Baltimore out of the kid" joke, but clearly something is going on, and during an era when younger stars are much more personable and squeaky-clean, Melo seems to be a throwback to the mid-'90s, back when young players still made dumb mistakes and were surrounded by a swollen entourage at all times.

I don't see him spending his entire career in Denver, much less next season, and there's a 98.7 percent chance he'll become the focal point of every trade rumor this summer. For instance, what if the Grizzlies get the No. 2 pick and decide they want to take hometown kid Derrick Rose even though they already have three point guards on their roster. If you're Denver, do you trade Melo for Mike Conley Jr., Hakim Warrick and Mike Miller, chop a few million off your payroll and hope Miller and Linas Kleiza can replace Melo's numbers (which, by the way, they would)? If you're Memphis, wouldn't you sell tickets with Melo, Rose and Rudy Gay? In other words, aren't those two teams a match? What if Minnesota got the No. 2 pick? If you're Denver, would you offer Melo to the T-Wolves for that pick (plus expiring contracts) and take Rose? See where I'm going here? If the Nuggets can turn Melo into a point guard, cap space and/or something else, don't they have to think about it?

(Of course, Melo can vanquish the previous two paragraphs by putting the Nuggets on his back and torching the Lakers for the next few games when they don't have a single guy who can defend him. Let's just say I'm not keeping my fingers crossed.)

Let's break this one down point by point, shall we?

1. Carmelo Anthony is a SF. Coincidentally, so is Rudy Gay. I know that Rudy played some PF this season and that if he improves his ball handling ability over the next few seasons he'll probably wind us at SG unless the Grizzlies draft/sign/trade for a high-level player at that position. But the fact is that the team's two best players would play best at the same position in that scenario. In addition to that, Rudy Gay's sophomore campaign produced better stats than Melo's. Higher RPG, SPG, BPG, FG%, 3PT% and virtually the same PPG, APG and TO. In other words, isn't it possible that Rudy is going to be as good as (if not better than) Melo in another season or two? Consider that Strike 1.

2. Yes, in all likelihood, a lineup that included Rose, Gay and Anthony would sell tickets in Memphis, which is a concern in these parts. However, the real question is this: Will they win playoff games and playoff series? Memphians have seen regular season success before and it no longer impresses them that much. I know that Melo was the best player/leader on that Syracuse team that won a national title, but has he been that player in the NBA? According to most fans, we already had one alleged franchise player that couldn't make a difference in the postseason, despite posting quality numbers in the regular season and postseason. Do we really want to travel down that road again so soon? Melo has made the postseason all five seasons in the NBA.....and has yet to advance beyond the first round. I realize, of course, that basketball isn't a one-man game (unless that one man is named LeBron), but that's what we in the business call a "pattern". It was a pattern for Kevin Garnett (who needed an All-Star season from Sam Cassell to finally get over the hump) and it continues to be a pattern for Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Some players just don't have it in them to be "The Man" in the NBA Playoffs. Lack of postseason success (and an apparent lack of concern about that result) equals Strike 2.

3. To follow up on being "The Man" in the playoffs, we now come to this issue: Is Carmelo Anthony a Superstar? (Note the capital "S") I say no. Is he a star? Absolutely. He's a great scorer and has displayed the ability to be clutch beyond belief -- even on par with Kobe and LeBron. However, a Superstar elevates his teammates in addition to being the go-to guy on offense. Oh, and a Superstar makes more than marginal effort on defense -- not that Melo even does that. If Melo isn't a Superstar, then why should the Grizzlies trade away a solid offensive option (Mike Miller) and one of the top PG prospects in the last few seasons (Mike Conley) for a guy that is very, very good, but ultimately isn't great or a true difference maker? I realize that Simmons hates the Grizzlies (as evidenced by the fact that he is constantly trying to move them to another city every other week) and really hates Chris Wallace (and not just for the Gasol trade that made the Lakers a championship contender for the next 5 seasons), but for Pete's sake, we do want this team to experience some playoff success in the future and eventually make the leap to contender. Does this trade accomplish that without Rudy Gay and/or Derrick Rose becoming All-NBA level players? I don't think so. We'll call this one a foul tip to keep him alive for one more point.

4. Salary cap structure. This is why the team traded away Pau Gasol for draft picks and cap space, remember? Taking on Carmelo's salary means that they once again have a max contract taking up space. So when the time comes for Rudy Gay to get his max-level extension, guess who is sitting there making $17 million or roughly 30% of the salary cap? That's right - Melo. Then when Derrick Rose is ready for his extension the year after that, guess who has a player option for $18 million? Newsflash Sports Guy: Boston might be able to afford 3 guys making max money, but Memphis cannot. If they could, then Pau Gasol would still be here...and Allen Iverson or Vince Carter probably would as well, but that's another story for another day. Ring him up, because that's Strike 3.

Carmelo Anthony to Memphis? No thanks, I'll pass -- even though he doesn't.

Is This Anyway to Run a Ball Team?

Well the trade deadline has passed and Michael Heisley, Chris Wallace and everyone else associated with the Grizzlies front office is taking a lot of heat from the local fans. Just as fans were buying into the idea that the team was competing soon with Rudy, Miller and Gasol the team suddenly reversed course and decided to rebuild with youth. Then, instead of a total rebuilding effort by trading Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal's ugly contract for expiring deals and the cap space that comes with it, the Grizz stand pat and only do a minor deal involving Marcus Vinicius.

People exploded on the Memphis radio airwaves expressing their unhappiness to Chris Wallace. It has gotten so bad that Bill Walton called the Grizzlies 'a farm team for the rest of the NBA.' The problem with that is the fans still have to pay major league prices to see it in person. Fans are unhappy right now with the losing ways and the prevalent attitude is that the team isn't being run properly.

But is this fair to the franchise?

The Grizzlies lost a reported $45 million over the last 3 seasons (Heisley claims he lost more like $40 million last year alone). Maybe that doesn't sound like much to some people but at the reported rate of $15 million a year it would only take 11 years for the franchise's losses to out strip the money Heisley paid for the team. And remember two of those seasons the team made the playoffs.

This season the Grizzlies cut payroll. It was reported that the Grizzlies payroll last season was $64,451,991. This season the Grizzlies payroll are supposed to be $52,792,812 adjusting for the trades already made. Now these are just estimations and may not be 100% correct but they do put us in a reasonable ballpark most likely. That is a savings of $11,659,179.

That figure alone is more than Forbes reported that Grizzlies lost in the 2006-07 season. Now let's start making some adjustments. First, the Grizzlies last season were above the luxury tax threshhold and had to pay an additional amount of money on top of their salaries that bottom line deduction is gone. Throw in the luxury tax payment paid by teams over the luxury cap threshhold and the decrease in salaries from Jerry West to Chris Wallace, from the half of a season the Grizzlies have been without Andy Dolitch and the team has to be close to break even this year even with the decreased attendance. They may in fact make a profit this year!

And that doesn't include the impact packed houses for the Tigers games will have on the Forum's, and by default the Grizzlies, bottom line as well. Between concerts, shows (and I hope everyone got to see the Cirque de Soleil show this week), Monster Truck rallies, etc. the Forum has had some pretty profitable events lately.

Of course you will never see it reported that way but the numbers seem to imply that breaking even isn't so remote a possibility.

Maybe the front office is running the team like a business instead of a hobby. While Heisley, Wallace and the rest of the Grizzlies want the team to be competitive and challenging in the playoffs it is still fundamentally a business. We as fans may not like to hear that the Grizzlies are terrible but breaking even yet that does seem to be the case here.

If Heisley starts to make money with the team he could use that as leverage to sell the team but more likely he will just keep watching the bottom line and see what happens. He isn't likely to make another mistake like the Brian Davis affair. A profitable enterprise is more likely to attract legitimate suitors to buy the team than one losing on average $15 million a year. Of course the question becomes can the team survive in Memphis even if it is profitable one year if the team can't attract fans? Isn't there a point of diminishing returns? How long can a business remain profitable if is has no consumers? Can the Donald Sterling model of basketball frugality and profits work in Memphis?

Well let's look at the Gasol trade again. What exactly did the Grizzlies receive? The team got a lot of potential cap space to spend on free agents this summer. The team got draft picks to upgrade talent via the draft, a far more cost effective way to upgrade your team than free agency as well. They got a young swing guard in Javaris Crittenton who exhibited a lot of potential to Laker fans before the trade. Memphis fans haven't seen a lot of him yet but I expect they will either this year or next. He is after all a 20 yr old rookie guard. They don't get a lot of burn on any team in the NBA.

Now granted it may not seem like a great idea to run a basketball team this way with a rookie head coach teaching basically rookie players to play in a new system against veteran led teams. Winning probably isn't in the immediate future. The question is what alternative did the team have? The Grizzlies were losing money and games before. Now they are only losing games. Is that an improvement?

Is winning in the playoffs the only way Memphis is going to support this team? Would the city be able to support a team with young talent headed in or at least appearing to be headed in the right direction? Would a team with Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Darko Milicic, Javaris Crittenton, Micheal Beasley and maybe someone like Michael Pietrus via free agency attract some fans?

Probably as many fans as the Grizzlies are attracting to games now. The bigger question is how many tickets are sold right now that go unused? That is a hidden revenue stream that may dry up. Everyone realizes that the Grizzlies lower bowl is practically sold out but rarely does it appear that way on game night. Will those fans renew this time? Can Rudy Gay and Mike Conley be promotion enought for the season ticket holders? Would those fans wait to invest in tickets if Memphis wins the lottery? Would they wait until the draft? What if Memphis got a Derick Rose in the draft? What about Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan or OJ Mayo? What about an intelligent free agent signing this summer? Does it need to be a big name or what? Where is the line drawn where it is not worth the money?

The key question here is will the team be able to survive in Memphis long enough as a business to become competitive as a ball team?

I only wish I knew the answer.

Welcome back to Dunkyland!

When I got the phone call, I was sure that someone was just having some fun at my expense. "Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and two 1st round draft picks." My initial reaction was "hey -- those salaries don't work" (yeah, I know it is pathetic that I know the salary structures for 80% of the teams in league -- quit laughing), but then I was told that they had resigned Aaron McKie to make it work. "Isn't he with the Sixers now?" Yet another sign of the ridiculousness of this trade. The Lakers traded the Sixers assistant coach to the Grizzlies. You cannot make stuff like that up.

For the next 48 hours I felt.........numb. I couldn't even begin to comprehend what had happened, so I couldn't feel anything about the trade. Well, other than a tremendous feeling of being cursed with the worst timing in the history of blogging. However, in the last two days, I have read two phenomenal viewpoints of the trade that have made me see just what this trade really means for Memphis. The first one was Pete Pranica's post on Grizz Blogs. The second was Hardwood Paroxysm's account of the trade. Slowly, I began to see the sun peeking through the clouds.

So now I am left at a crossroads. On the one hand, the Gasol trade has left the Grizzlies with cap space for the upcoming offseason (estimated $10-15 million), an additional draft pick for a great talent evaluator in Chris Wallace to use and a young player with good potential in Javaris Crittenton. They will be able to rebuild this team from the ground up, using Mike Conley and Rudy Gay as the foundation, with Darko Milicic and Crittenton as key players. Then you factor in two more young players with potential in the draft this summer and the talent level of this team going forward should increase dramatically.

It sounds like they won't use their cap space this offseason, given that this isn't a particularly enticing unrestricted free agent crop to pair with a group of young athletic players, preferring to roll it over to the 2009 offseason, where there are a lot of attractive FA's of the "right age". Factor in another 18 months of growth/maturity for Conley/Gay/Darko and this team could improve by leaps and bounds. So there is reason to have hope for the future of this franchise, including a return to the postseason as soon as the 2009/10 season.

On the other hand, this move was obviously business first, basketball a distant second. Even though it is mostly being reported that Chris Wallace pitched the idea to owner Michael Heisley, this one has Heisley grimy little fingerprints all over it. Wallace has been in print and on the radio several times this season saying that he did not want an expiring contract to be the central piece in return for either Gasol or Mike Miller in a trade. Lo and behold, what did he say about the acquisition of Kwame Brown? "He was the biggest expiring deal we could get." Now, I'm familiar with GM speak and know it when I see it. This 180 degree turnaround did not seem like a case of GM speak. Rather, it seems more likely that it was a directive from Heisley to Wallace -- not the other way around.

If that is the case, then this trade was a salary dump, plain and simple. If this is nothing more than a way to lower the outstanding contracts on the team to make it easier for Heisley to either sell the team to an outside group or to force the local group of minority owners to meet his asking price, then Memphis fans have been duped and taken advantage of as pawns. Pawns who shelled out money for a team that they expected to be competitive this year, even if they weren't expecting a return to the playoffs. Now they get to watch a team that has 13 wins so far and probably won't match last year's total of 22 victories. Not only is that a hard pill to swallow, it is an even harder sell for the sales/marketing staff. As Geoff Calkins pointed out in his column Saturday, can you imagine what that sales call will be like? It won't be pretty, I can assure you. This team didn't draw well when they were making the postseason and actively trying to get better. How low will attendance drop now that the rest of this season is a foregone conclusion and next year won't be much better? When does the attendace clause of the team's lease actually go into effect? (Speaking of attendance, Mark Cuban says get off your butt and do something if your attendance sucks.)

So while I would love to go along with the idea that this was a move made with the team's best interests in mind, if I have learned one thing in life, it is that rich, powerful people usually get what they want. Michael Heisley is a billionaire, so he gets what he wants and then takes the rest. If the team resurrects itself over the next two or three seasons, then I'll accept that Heisley is not, in fact, the Anti-Christ. If he uses this move as leverage to sell the team to a group like the Brian Davis-led flunkies who only have enough money to buy the team and nothing more, then I'm starting a blog dedicated to trashing Heisley. Either way, only time will tell what is to come for this team.

Welcome back to Dunkyland!

If you were the GM...

Chris Wallace had some quotes in the Commercial Appeal today that left some fans with a rather sour taste in their mouths.

"I don't feel pressured or compelled to make a deal," Wallace said. "When you're in that frame of mind, you make mistakes. We like our talent. ... I'm at heart an impatient guy. But there's a process.
"I've been through difficult times. The most important part of getting through this is everybody staying together. ... Under no circumstances can you become desperate. You're going to end up in a more difficult spot than you are already in. I don't want to push a panic button. We haven't seen this team together for a long period of time. It
would be premature for us to say who this team is."
Wallace said Iavaroni has been a stabilizer in troubled waters.
"He doesn't go crazy," Wallace said. "He doesn't turn on players and hate them. He
doesn't all of a sudden say 'You know that guy who just scored 14 points on us the other night is the answer. Let's get him.' He's been positive about our long-term future."
Short-term, Wallace said the Griz have no plans to move Gasol, who is often mentioned in trade rumors. Memphis has received calls and standing trade offers for Gasol from at least two teams -- Charlotte and Atlanta -- according to insiders.
Mike Miller also has been mentioned as trade bait in national reports. But one thing to keep in mind about the Grizzlies is that they won't accept expiring contracts for their top talent. Teams, though, have become more serious about trades since Dec. 15, when free agents from last summer could be dealt.
While the rumor mill will get more intense as the NBA's trade deadline of Feb. 21 looms, Wallace cautioned that the Griz won't enter a fire sale.
"I'm not shopping players. But I'm always willing to improve the team," he said. "I can't tell you what the next phone call will bring. In this business, the landscape changes dramatically every day. We're not opposed to doing something if there's a deal that helps us basketball-wise and makes sense financially."

While I understand the impatience of some fans, I think that they are looking at Wallace's words in the wrong context. He's not saying that he isn't open to making moves or taking calls about his players. What he is saying is that he doesn't feel pressured to do that, given the injuries that have not allowed him or the coaching staff to evaluate the team as a whole and the fact that the season is only a third of the way through. What he is saying is meant for other GM's and executives around the league -- not for the fans. It is a message that says, "I'm not going to take your trash for my treasure". It is also a message that states that an expiring contract is not enough to pry Pau Gasol and/or Mike Miller away from Memphis.

Chip told me to post something of this nature two weeks ago and I didn't do it. So, now that a poster over at the Grizzlies Message Boards has, let me piggy-back onto that and offer my thoughts. I don't care to guess what the "standing offers" from Atlanta and Charlotte are, although I'm sure that the speculation will be widespread and overly hopeful. Instead, I'll attempt to look at some deals involving other teams that will help the team in terms of both basketball and business.

Originally posted by New Game. New Era.:
I mean, if you guys were the GM of this team ... Would you not see that something isn't working for this team and try to move some pieces around?
On the other hand ... If we do end up with a top 6 pick in the next draft ... Would it be the missing piece to this puzzle? Would you wait out the season and let the team you have now play together and get use to each other?
What would you do if you were the GM?

It has been established that there will be a 50-game evaluation period. Obviously, Chris Wallace will wait until that has passed before making any significant moves -- something that is backed up by his quotes above. However, if after that evaluation period has concluded, the team is still in the same "funk" that it is currently experiencing, then here is what I would do.


Scenario #1: Complete Overhaul
1. Trade Gasol and Cardinal to Miami for Udonis Haslem (3 yrs, $19.7 million), Jason Williams (1 yr, $8.9 million), Dorell Wright (1 yr, $2 million, Qualifying Offer next season for $2.9 million) and Alonzo Mourning (1 yr, $2.76 million), two 2009 2nd round picks (via Indiana and Philadelphia). (ESPN Trade Machine)

Cut both Mourning and Williams, since they are expiring contracts, unless JWill's presence might draw some fans in. I'd rather just cut him though. This gives the team a minimum of $11.6 million in extra cap space next season, as well as a tough, intimidating rebounder in Haslem and a talented young SG in Wright who won't break the bank with an extension. Miami gets a legit #2 option to put next to Dwyane Wade now that Shaq isn't even a shadow of his former self, which might be enough to get them back into the playoff hunt. They should give us a 1st round pick, too, but they don't have one. C'est la vie.


2. Trade Miller and Stoudamire to L.A. for Kwame Brown (1 yr, $9.1 million), Trevor Ariza (1 yr, $3.1 million) and Sasha Vujacic (1 yr. $1.75 million, Qualifying Offer next season for $2.6 million), 2008 2nd round pick. (ESPN Trade Machine)

All three are expiring deals, although I wouldn't mind holding on to Ariza as the backup SF if a reasonable deal can be worked out or Vujacic as a "minimum wage" bench player. The Lakers are rolling along right now (and have done so without the services of Kwame for most of the season), but they won't win in the playoffs with Jordan Farmar as their primary PG and an injury to Derek Fisher would doom them almost as certainly as an injury to the Black Mamba, so Damon's presence could offset that by playing 10-15 minutes a night throughout the regular season, lessening the wear-and-tear on the backcourt through the grueling marathon that is November through April. Mike Miller gives Kobe another weapon on the perimeter when the double teams start to come early and often. With Andrew Bynum's emergence, he'll start to command more attention with each passing game as well, which could also benefit a sharpshooter of Miller's caliber. This deal could result in as much as an additional $13.9 million in cap space, bringing the total to over $25 million from the two deals.

3. Trade Warrick and Jacobsen to Philadephia for Rodney Carney (2 yrs, $3.2 million) and Louis Amundson (1 yr, $687,456). (ESPN Trade Machine)

Hakim is (and probably always will be) a defensive liability, which means he needs a strong defender next to him. Philly has Dalembert and Evans and could use Hak's scoring punch to complement that. Carney is a super-athletic SG and a good defender, which we all know is needed. I wouldn't count on it, but he might even bring in a Tiger fan or two with his presence -- never can tell. Amundson is a great rebounder for his size (think poor man's David Lee) and would be a decent fill-in if needed. This move probably isn't necessary, but I don't see Hak or CJ being in the long-term plans for the team, so why not take a chance on someone who might be?

The reshaped roster looks like this (positions listed alphabetically, not representative of starters/bench players):

PG - Conley/Lowry/Williams
SG - Carney/Navarro/Wright
SF - Ariza/Gay/Vujacic
PF - Amundson/Haslem/Swift
C - A.Brown/K.Brown/Milicic

That's a young athletic team that is capable of playing defense and would have more than just a little cap room this summer to play with, along with a couple additional draft picks the next two years.

Scenario #2: Build around Conley/Gasol/Gay

1. Trade Damon and Hakim to Denver for Eduardo Najera (1 yr, $4.95 million) and Linas Kleiza (2 yrs, $2.8 million). (ESPN Trade Machine)

Denver gets a PG upgrade and a scoring forward. Memphis gets an expiring contract in the form of the gritty Najera and a G/F capable of being a solid backup for a cheap price in Kleiza. A lot of people will balk at "giving up" Hak for so little, but taking $5 million off next year's cap is worth it.

2. Trade Mike Miller, Casey Jacobsen and Andre Brown to Atlanta for Josh Childress (1 yr, $3.6 million), Shelden Williams (2 yrs, $6.5 million) and Lorenzen Wright (1 yr, $3.25 million). (ESPN Trade Machine)

We give up the guy who should be our 6th man (Miller) for their's as he nears a contract extension, as well as a young big man who hasn't really panned out to this point in Shelden Williams. Williams' draft position isn't his fault, but so far he could be fairly labeled a disappointment. Perhaps some work with a big man coach like Marc Iavaroni could help with that?

Those two moves would give the team a makeover without sacrificing financial flexibility for the future. Don't forget that if he continues on his current ascension, Rudy Gay will be a max contract player soon enough and Michael Conley might not command much less than that.

OR

1. Trade Mike and Hakim to Chicago for Joe Smith (2 yrs, $10 million), Tyrus Thomas (2 yrs, $7.25 million) and Thabo Sefolosha (2 yrs, $3.7 million). (ESPN Trade Machine)

Chicago still needs low-post scoring and some "veteran leadership". Hakim provides the former (even if he's not Pau) and Miller provides the latter along with some outside shooting and playmaking ability. Ok, ok, Mike doesn't really give them any leadership, but the Bulls don't know that. Besides, Paxson has to do something, because firing Scott Skiles was only a temporary reprieve from the axe that is descending upon his neck. Memphis does this deal because it is an influx of younger, cheaper talent in Thomas and Sefolosha, as well as an attractive contract to use as trade bait next year in Smith. It is something of a "minor move" according to some, but trading away two players in Ivaroni's main rotation would definitely be considered a major change from where I sit.

That's all I've got for now, so be sure to let me know what your thoughts are in the Comments.

Reasonable Expectations

See? Now you respect me, because I’m a threat. That’s the way it works.

Syndrome
The Incredibles


In the entire history of Grizzlies basketball, we have never been a threat. We are in the 13th season and nothing, nada, zippo. Only one All Star in the first 12 seasons. Dwindling attendance. Lackluster and indifferent fan base. Currently 3-9 and coming off a blowout loss to the World Champion San Antonio Spurs. Yes, it is a long way from Halloween when we played the Spurs closely. As the season wears on and the losses mount (look at December’s schedule), there is one underlying theme as the Grizzlies face the better teams…we are not a threat.

When discussing the Grizzlies, especially with regards to roster moves, the vision is for building a contender for the Larry O’Brien trophy. It is not about building a “competitive” team or a playoff contender. It is about a team that is at least on the level that the Utah Jazz is currently. Might not be a championship favorite but a team that is considered to have a chance if things break right. So the question that needs to be answered is what type of talent do the Grizzlies need to compete at that level?

When starting this conversation, it is good to refer to an article written about two years ago that covered what it takes to win in the NBA from a historic perspective. When referring to this article, it shows you the #1 reason why the Grizz have failed to build a contender. The Grizzlies have not built the team from the top down. What this means is that the past GMs of the Grizzlies have been more concerned with overall depth than the quality of the players at the top. Another shortcoming is that Grizzlies management has not valued acquiring players that defend the goal over shooters.

BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM

STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar
Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons.

Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players.

Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender.

STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two) Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection.

STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend. No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender.

Now this article is not THE reference for building an NBA champion, but history should not be ignored. The key to winning in the NBA is not size, depth, defense, or scoring. The key to winning is top-level talent. Ask Phoenix if size and defense is the key to contending. Ask Boston if depth is essential to contending. Ask Detroit if you need elite scorers to contend. See I am not asking for or expecting an NBA title. I just want to enter the conversation.

Coach Iavaroni has already stated that he would prefer an 8 or 9 man rotation. So in essence, we should have 6 roster spots that we should not even discuss except in theoretical playoff match up terms such as having an extra big if we had to deal with Greg Oden or an extra long perimeter defender to disrupt Kevin Durant. Did you catch that? Yes, that is how far away this roster is from making the jump into the upper 25% of the league. I think this is the reality that must set in for us. We are at least 3 years away.

These three years assumes that Gay, Lowry, Conley and Darko progress as expected. In this time the Grizzlies should have a top 7 pick in 2008, to be a borderline playoff team in 2009, a playoff team in 2010 and to go into the 2010-11 season as a threat to make the Western Conference finals. So with that timeline it is more important to find players that fit the team our coach wants to build. A team that attacks on both ends of the court, athletic, and able to shoot proficiently from the perimeter is what Coach Iavaroni emphasized. Tarence Kinsey doesn’t count because he should not be in your top 8 or 9.

In my estimation, we have players 3 through 6 in our future contending rotation: (3) Michael Conley, (4) Rudy Gay, (5) Darko Milicic, and (6) Kyle Lowry. So we need use the rest of our assets in getting two big time players: one a glass eating (10+ rebounder) interior defender and the other a perimeter shot maker in the mold of the upper echelon wings in the league. Nothing else matters.

Now the chance of acquiring an age appropriate (25 and under), established “superstar” via trade is virtually impossible. So that leaves the draft, free agency and trading for a potential superstar before they have blossomed. Players that fit the mold we should be looking for: Gilbert Arenas, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Emeka Okafor, Andris Biedrens, DeAndre Jordan, Tyrus Thomas, and Josh Smith.

In other words, the two types of players needed are a perimeter player capable of eventually giving you a consistent 20 to 25 points a night with range and without being a defensive liability and an interior player capable of pulling down 10 to 15 rebounds per night while scoring in double figures with good enough hands that the team can use him to run the pick and roll and playing good defense. These two guys don’t guarantee a championship but they elevate the Grizzlies into contention. Isn’t that all a Grizzlies fan could ask for at this point?

August 2, 2005 - A Day to Remember or Forget?

August 2, 2005 was a strange day for most Memphis Grizzlies fans. That was the day that Pat Riley and Jerry West partnered up with a few other GM's in the largest trade in NBA history. Gone from the Memphis Grizzlies were Jason Williams and James Posey, two players who were on the expensive side, from the Grizzlies 50 win season of a year before and in was Eddie Jones, an extremely overpaid and over the hill player.

What was the catch? Had West totally lost his mind? Was he senile? Was he rewarding Riley for his success in L.A.? Surely the Grizzlies were not trading away two important players in their primes from the Grizzlies back-to-back playoff teams for an ancient player.

Miami went on to win the NBA Championship that season and, while the Grizzlies did win the 2nd most games in franchise history, they were swept out of the playoffs again without winning a single game.

In the 2006-07 season, Eddie Jones complained about injury after injury before finally getting bought out of his huge contract and re-signing with the Miami Heat. Abruptly his troublesome injuries were behind him too. It appeared that not only had Memphis traded away the final pieces for an NBA title, but they had nothing to show for it after 18 months while Miami was holding all of the players and a world championship as well!

But nothing was the most important part of the trade as far as Jerry West was concerned.

‘Nothing’, as in the Grizzlies had ‘nothing’ in salary cap issues this summer. ‘Nothing’, as in the Grizzlies had ‘nothing’ in the locker room stirring up trouble and undermining team direction. ‘Nothing’ as in the Grizzlies had nothing holding them back from remaking the franchise and moving forward again after apparently hitting a wall as far as improvement was concerned.

Jerry West was convinced that the team as it was constructed would never improve beyond a 1st rd playoff exit. Something drastic had to be done. And he did about as drastic a trade as one could imagine changing things around.

Most trades take years to evaluate on who actually won or lost. The reasons for trades can be different and the time frame can radically alter the end result of a move. Right now Miami has seen the total benefit of the trade. They won one world championship (mostly in spite of JWill and Posey not because of them). Now the Heat are looking to re-fill the void from Posey’s signing with Boston while searching for a replacement for a suddenly old Jason Williams.

Memphis on the other hand signed Darko Milicic with their free cash. The release of Eddie Jones gave rookie SG Tarence Kinsey court time to develop. The need to fill the PG position allowed the drafting of Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry.

The Heat wanted to win now and did. The Grizzlies wanted to rebuild the team and eliminate the cap overhand that was costing the franchise millions in Luxury Tax every year. The Grizzlies have accomplished what they wanted from the trade and they did it with only one bad season.

So far the trade is still slanted in Miami’s favor, but as teams continue to pass over Miami in the Eastern Conference and Memphis grows younger, faster and more talented it appears to be only a matter of time before August 2, 2005 will be the day Memphis fans point to as the beginning of the Memphis success story.

Players to keep an eye on (Part 2)

In Part 1, I looked at a few players that the Grizzlies could acquire at some point this season, in an effort to offload either Damon Stoudamire, Stromile Swift or both. Now, I want to take a look at some players that the Grizzlies organization might want to keep tabs on, as they will be free agents over the next 3 seasons. I won't be discussing any big names, because everyone already knows the book on them and the cash it will require to sign them. I'll also be using the dates that these players become unrestricted free agents, because we all know that it is typically futile to attempt to sign a restricted free agent to a reasonable contract.

2008 Free Agents

Chris Duhon (PG - Chicago Bulls) -- Could be a great backup PG if Ben Gordon presses the issue about starting in Chicago, leading to even fewer minutes for Duhon. Also, Memphis might be ready to move either Conley or Lowry if the other proves capable of being the definitive "PG of the future" this season, leaving room for an experienced player to fill.

Ryan Gomes (F - Minnesota Timberwolves) -- A solid player with a high basketball IQ, Gomes has a good all-around game. He's also the type of player that championship-level teams covet, so there will probably be a lot of competition for his services.

Francisco Elson (C - San Antonio Spurs) -- A capable backup, who can provide enough to allow Darko/Pau a few extra minutes rest over the long haul of the regular season.

Chris Quinn (G - Miami Heat) -- If the Grizzlies are successful at finding a trade partner to take Damon Stoudamire, but still have both Conley and Lowry, they'd likely want a low-priced option in case of injury. Quinn hasn't been provided with much of an opportunity to play, but his 3:1 assist to turnover ratio in 9.6 MPG last season is encouraging.

Walter Herrmann (F- Charlotte Bobcats) -- I already detailed him in Part 1, but if a trade fails, there is a chance that he could be signed outright in the offseason.

2009 Free Agents

Josh Childress (G/F - Atlanta Hawks) -- He's a little more well-known than most of the players on this list, but I see this as a move contingent upon one of two circumstances coming to fruition. If Rudy/Tarence/Navarro fail to develop as a consistent NBA starter that fit in with Iavaroni's system or if Mike Miller's production falls off over the next two seasons, then Childress is a player I'd like the Grizzlies to look at pursuing as an unrestricted free agent.

Chris Wilcox (F/C - Seattle SuperSonics) -- A solid, if unspectacular post player, Wilcox could be a player to pursue if Darko doesn't quite pan out. He'd be a nice complement to Gasol, providing an intimidating presence in the paint.

Trevor Ariza (SF - Orlando Magic) -- Similar to the scenario I laid out with Josh Childress, Ariza could be a nice player to add if our young players don't develop. Ariza could also be a solid primary backup if the Grizzlies shorten their roster as the Suns have done of the past few seasons.

2010 Free Agents

David Lee (F - New York Knicks) -- Probably nothing more than a pipe dream, as he is already one of the most efficient players in the NBA, but he exemplifies the kind of player that title contenders usually have on their roster.

Mouhamed Saer Sene (C - Seattle SuperSonics) -- Having drafted a center three consecutive years means that one of them won't be resigned when it comes time for extensions to be handed out. If the Grizzlies cannot trade for Sene, then signing the player who could be another Desagana Diop would be ideal. A raw shotblocker, Sene might develop some rebounding skills over the next few seasons. If nothing else, it is always nice to have a defensive minded center laying around.

Those are the players that I would keep an eye on to chart their development and production. If there is anyone that I have missed or that should be reconsidered, feel free to mention them in the Comments.

Players to keep an eye on (Part 1)

As we inch ever closer to training camp and prepare to call to completion yet another offseason, I thought we'd look into the future to identify some players that the Grizzlies should keep an eye on. These players will fall into 2 groups: players who can be traded for this season, players who will be free agents in 2008, 2009 and 2010. If we've come to understand anything about NBA transactions so far, it is that you have to keep one eye on the present, one eye on the future and both hands on the wheel. That means that you cannot get too caught up in what occurs every day on the practice court and in games, and subsequently lose sight of the bigger picture. By the same token, you cannot mortgage your team's future for the sake of "one big chance" at a title unless that risk gives you a shot at winning a title over a 3 year period. Winning titles is the goal, just in case anyone has forgotten. With that in mind, here are the players that I think could upgrade the talent level of the Grizzlies or provide them with more cap space to pursue free agents over the next two offseasons.

Players available in a trade this season
We know that the Grizzlies would likely have little to no problem with parting ways with Damon Stoudamire or Stromile Swift at some point this season. Those two players provide the basis for whom I will be looking at and evaluating, as there are a few teams looking for help at PG and in the frontcourt. Without taking a horrendous contract in return, there is no way to move Brian Cardinal, so don't even bother suggesting it in the Comments.

Walter Herrmann (F - Charlotte Bobcats) -- The Bobcats have one real PG under contract (Raymond Felton) after letting Brevin Knight sign with the Clippers. They could use a player like Damon Stoudamire (with a future 2nd round pick added if necessary) to allow Felton a breather each game, and possibly a night off here and there. Herrmann proved to be a valuable player last season, showing a surprising ability to score after Gerald Wallace suffered a season-ending injury, allowing the Argentine to move into the starting lineup for the final 12 games of the season and post the following stats in that span: 19.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, .585 FG%, .483 3PT%, .789 FT% in 37 MPG. The BETcats went 7-5 in the games he started. Charlotte might be willing to part with him, given the amount of frontcourt talent they have and the dearth of help they have at the PG position.

Donyell Marshall (F - Cleveland Cavaliers) -- The Cavs have a similar issue at PG, but are also reportedly looking to add interior help, so either Damon or Stro could potentially land this versatile forward who has seen his minutes dwindle despite relatively steady production. He's always been a 3-point threat and has grabbed double-digit rebounds in two of his 13 seasons, the most recent being 2003/04. He's a capable performer off the bench and has two years remaining on his contract, during which time he would likely be of more value that Damon.

Eduardo Najera (F - Denver Nuggets) -- A dirty player? Only if he's playing for the other team. He's a gritty hustle player, which the Grizz have been missing since Shane Battier was traded away and Brian Cardinal forgot to bring his knee ligaments with him to the arena. The Nuggets allowed Steve Blake to leave in free agency, leaving them with Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and the relic that used to be Anthony Carter manning the point. Don't be surprised if they start looking for some insurance at that position by mid-season, giving Memphis the opportunity to send Damon their way. Najera's contract expires at the end of the season, making it a win-win situation no matter how well he plays.

Kwame Brown (FC - L.A. Lakers) -- Yeah, he's a bust, but you're missing the point here: $9,075,000 of expiring contract. That's very close to the combined salaries of Damon and Stro ($10.15 million). The Lakers are another team with a potential lack of PG's, with Jordan Farmar and Derek Fisher (who has always played like a SG) the only guys on the roster that don't have that "R for Rookie" designation by their names. I know that this is true for the Grizzlies as well, with Conley, Lowry and Navarro all being rookies for all intents and purposes, but I'd be willing to roll the dice to get rid of those two contracts in exhange for cap space next offseason. Another player like Maurice Evans might be included to make the salaries work. Who knows, they might throw in Marc Gasol to make the deal work......just kidding.

Ricky Davis.......or maybe not. I wouldn't mind taking the "Grizzly Killer" off the market and then have him become the towel boy, but that's about the only way I'd want to trade for him.

Other players I considered, but didn't deem realistic acquisitions: John Salmons, Josh Childress, Jeff Foster, Francisco Elson, and Mouhamed Sene.

That left me with four players that I can see being legitimately moved this season that our two veterans could potentially land. I'll tackle the upcoming free agent markets in my next post.