Yesterday I took a look at the Rookie team as whole without focusing too hard on any one players performance. Today I am going to look at the individuals.
PLAYERS:
O J Mayo - 18.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.6 apg 1.4 spg, 4.8 topg
OJ was the star of the summer league team and made the highlight plays that got the Grizzlies on Sportscenter but he also shot 40.7% from the field (48% from three point range). Outside of a thunderous dunk in the first game and a 69 ft heave in the 4th game he really wasn't that spectacular. He got people fired up with some nice plays like an up and under reverse layup but overall he didn't really stand out as much as hoped for the #3 player taken in the draft. WHen fresh OJ showed that he was far better than most people in the league but you expect that. OJ also played two positions and that obviously had an effect on his efficiency.
Darrell Arthur - 13.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 50.0 FG%, 0.8 bpg, 1.6 topg
Darrell came to the Grizzlies as the player who fell the most on draft night. He was supposed to have a chip on his shoulder about the snub. Instead his reputation as being a player who has a questionable heart seemed to be true. 3.8 rebounds a game was one fewer than Javaris Crittenton and nearly three fewer than PJ Tucker. Arthur did shoot a high percentage from both the field and the three point line (50%) but often seemed to be more in the background than imposing himself on the action. When playing hard he was impressive. It just didn't appear that he had the motor running every night and that was before the fatigue factor was supposed to set in. In many ways Arthur was more impressive when the rest of the team looked tired.
Mike Conley - 11.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.3 spg, 2.67 topg
Conley was out of sorts at times playing with O J Mayo who also fancies himself a PG. It seemed Conley was more interested in allowing OJ to be the star then he was in establishing himself as an up and coming player in the league. He did shoot 45.8% from the field and 44.4% from the arc but he didn't seem to take advantage of his speed to force defenses to react to him. Missing the last two games seems like a smart idea. He had a tough year last season and there is no reason to expose Conley to a potential injury do to a ridiculous schedule.
P J Tucker - 10.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.8 topg
If one player played himself into an invitation to training camp it had to be P J Tucker. PJ led the team in rebounding despite his diminutive size (supposedly 6-5). Basically a power player Tucker gets by on hustle and intelligence. He has high skills for an interior player but at his size less skilled players should have no problem defending him anyway. Tucker still manages to score by simply outworking his opponents. His 65.2% FG shooting also shows that he doesn't force too many shots, a trait that would serve him well to remember if he is invited to the camp.
Ebi Ere - 8.2 ppg, 48.3 FG%, 42.9 3pt%, 1.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg
Ere reminded me of the Richard Gere role in 'An Office and a Gentleman' when asked why he wouldn't quit screamed "I got no place to go!" Ere's Australian team disbanded this year and he has no place to go. An excellent shooter from the perimeter, Ere showed little else in the summer league. He worked on defense but failed to come up with turnovers. If the team decides to go with a pure outside shooter (along the lines of Eddie House but cheaper) then Ere may have a chance to come to training camp.
Javaris Crittenton - 8.0 ppg, 4.0 apg, 4.8 rpg, 38.5 FG%, 4.0 topg
If there was a player who needed to prove he had a future on this team it was Javaris Crittenton. The jury is still out on whether or not he achieved that. Crittenton led the Grizzlies in assists, was second on the team in rebounding, 2nd on the team in minutes played and 6th in scoring to go with some pretty good defense at the SF position. JCritt played 3 different roles on the team and if his shooting was better would have been the feel good story of the summer. Unfortunately he didn't shoot the ball well. He didn't even shoot adequately. Rumors have swirled that JCritt is still on the block and they seem justified right now.
Steve Burtt, Jr. - 6.3 ppg, 64.7 FG%, 33.3 3pt%, 2.3 apg, 0.8 spg
The son of a former NBA player with the same name, Burtt showed that he can shoot the ball. He is the looks like the typical shoot first PG but his 2.3 apg looks pretty good when you consider he only played 13 minutes a game. Burtt's play may have earned him a second look from other NBA teams but with the depth in the backcourt the Grizzlies have it is unlikely he will be invited back to training camp.
Alan Anderson - 4.4 ppg, 23.8 FG%, 20.0 3pt%, 1.6 rpg, 0.8 spg
Anderson is a good defender who can't shoot a lick. That type of one sided approach to the game isn't good enough in the NBA anymore (if it ever was). Anderson has a nice way about his game but it just isn't productive enough at this level and this level isn't the NBA.
Malick Badiane - 4.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 33.3 FG%, 0.2 bpg
The book on Badiane was that he needs more time to develop. That was made perfectly clear in the summer league. One of only 6 players to play in every game Badiane's performance started adequate and deteriorated from there. His offensive game is terrible and he doesn't play good enough defense especially blocking shots as his wingspan would imply he should. Badiane also had more fouls than rebounds. That is never a good sign.
Brian Butch - 2.7 ppg, 1.0 spg, 1.0 rpg 33.3 FG%
A last second fill in for injured Brett Petway, Butch showed exactly why he was available as a last second fill in. Not much to say about Butch besides good luck in Europe or the NBDL.
Aaron Pettway - 2.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 0,5 bpg
The reigning NBDL Slam Dunk Champion has amazing hops, plays great defense and can't score at all. A peculiar combination of talents. Pettway looks like he will be back to defend his slam dunk title next year. The Grizzlies love his defense but loathe his offense and like I said about Anderson, you need to play on both sides of the court in the NBA.
David Simon - 1.0 pgg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 bpg
That isn't bad production considering he only played 9.5 mpg. If you move that to a per 40 minutes average you get 4 ppg, 5.2 rpg and 1 block. On second thought maybe that is pretty lousy and that is why he didn't play much.
Marcus Dove - 0.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg
What can I say. He didn't play much and that was probably a good thing.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Summer League Review - The Players
Friday, May 9, 2008
Reviewing Expectations and Predictions
Back before the season began, I predicted what each player's statistical output for the season would be. Let's take a look back and see just how far off I really was with the primary players, shall we? If you want to see how the role players did, I'll let you check out the link above and see for yourself.
Mike Miller
Prediction: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%
Actual: 35.3 MPG, 16.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, .502 FG%, .437 3PT%, .774 FT%
Then: Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.
Now: Miller shot better from the floor and rebounded more than I thought he would, but overall, I'm pretty pleased with my prediction, especially since I pointed at his efficiency increasing, which is exactly what happened.
Rudy Gay
Prediction: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%
Actual: 37 MPG, 20.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .462 FG%, .346 3PT%, .785 FT%
Then: Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Now: Well, I guess that "lowball" might not even cover it, although I don't think that anyone expected that big a leap in Rudy's scoring and efficiency -- including him. Again, I was very close on rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, but considerably off on scoring and shooting percentages.
Darko Milicic
Prediction: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Actual: 23.8 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, .438 FG%, .554 FT%
Then: Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Now: Darko didn't start slow at all, but an injury-plagued season derailed his efforts to show that he's not the bust that the media makes him out to be. On a per-minute basis, his stats are actually very close to what I predicted.
Juan Carlos Navarro
Prediction: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
Actual: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, .402 FG%, .361 3PT%, .849 FT%
Then: "La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Now: JCN was just as inconsistent as any other rookie, leading to shooting percentages that were much lower than I predicted. Looking back, I obviously went way too high on PPG for someone I was expecting to play less than half a game. I thought that Navarro have much more of a score-first mentality, but he was a more complete, all-around player than that.
Kyle Lowry
Prediction: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Actual: 25.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, .432 FG%, .257 3PT%, .698 FT%
Then: Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Now: Well, Kyle didn't start often (only 9 games), but he did manage to log a lot of MPG even still. Kyle wasn't the facillitator that I was expecting, which led to much lower assist numbers than I was anticipating. Lowry's shot improved mechanically through the season, even if his perimeter percentages don't reflect that. Also, I'm begging him to spend all summer with Mark Price after seeing those free throw numbers.
Hakim Warrick
Prediction: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Actual: 23.4 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .502 FG%, .704 FT%
Then: Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Now: Obviously, I didn't expect the team to trade Pau Gasol mid-season, which led Hak getting far more minutes than the prediction above. Even with that said, it is a little disconcerting that Warrick's assists, steals and blocks weren't any better with the additional playing time. Hak still doesn't play defense, pass or dribble very well.
Mike Conley
Prediction: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Actual: 26.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 0.8 SPG, .428 FG%, .330 3PT%, .732 FT%
Then: Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Now: Mark me down for being wrong on the reasoning, but right about the stats once again. Conley started 46 of the 53 games he appeared in, as the coaching staff felt that he was ready to assume that role as soon as Damon Stoudamire was released. Conley wasn't as disruptive on defense as I expected, but he was a better shooter/scorer than I anticipated.
As mentioned earlier, I can't make myself go through the Andre Browns and Casey Jacobsens on the roster, but I'm considering reviewing the players who are no longer on the team. If you're interested in reading more about Pau, Damon and Stro, drop a line in the Comments.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Grizz Need Some 'Assist'ance
No, I am not going to talk about how badly the Grizzlies need Mike Miller back for the game tonight but that would be a big help against the Rockets. Instead I want to talk about the hidden assassin killing this team's efforts. People wonder why the Grizzlies aren't playing better at the end of games this season. The answer could be that while the team abounds with great individual offensive talent, they don't play as a team.
How do I justify this comment? Look where the Grizzlies stand in assists compared to where the Grizzlies stand in team scoring. Memphis is 12th in scoring but only 25th in team assists. The Grizzlies are putting Juan Carlos Navarro, Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick out on the court as starters right now. How many people realize that JCN has more assists than Gay and Warrick combined and JCN only averages 2.2 apg? This team isn't exactly playing unselfishly at this time.
Heck, Darko has nearly twice as many assists as Hakim does this year. The starting front line of Darko, Hakim and Rudy average a combined 3.3 assists per game. Rudy is the 42nd best forward in the league in assists and he leads the Grizzlies front line. When you consider assists per minute played Rudy is 95th among forwards and is 2nd on the Grizz front line behind Brian Cardinal (73rd in the league). Now I am not suggesting that Rudy play 48 minutes but that number reflects the number of assists a player gets per minute on the court. Memphis is supposed to be playing a motion offense like Phoenix. That motion is predicated on players sharing the ball and when they share the ball the team plays at a very high level.
So why doesn’t our frontline share the ball more? Is it a lack of confidence in their teammates? Is it a lack of confidence in the offensive system? Many people have stated they don't feel the style fits the players the Grizzlies have.
Maybe it is a coaching issue but I don’t know how much of an effect Iavaroni can have in 8 months compared to all the previous years of playing. And it isn’t like the team has a lot of people on the bench to set better examples. Casey Jacobsen has a career average of 1.1 apg (0.3 apg this season). Jason Collins is averages 1.1 apg over his career (0.3 apg this season). Brian Cardinal, the leading assist per minute played frontline player for Memphis, has averaged 1.2 assists per game over his career (0.6 apg this season).
What about Mike Miller? I know that is in the back of some of your heads. Yes, Mike Miller has played some small forward this season when Memphis goes with a 3 guard lineup but those minutes are minor in relation to the amount of time he plays at shooting guard and he only averages 3.6 apg this season. This is higher than his career average of 3.0 apg however.
Everyone knows Steve Nash leads the Phoenix offense in assists. If you don’t know this then why are you reading this blog? However Grant Hill averages 3.1 apg and Boris Diaw averages 4.0. Raja Bell only averages 2.2 apg but he is the fourth option offensively for Phoenix. Even center/forward Amare Stoudamire averages 1.2 apg. That is more than Darko and Hakim combined! And Memphis is led by Mike Conley’s 4.8 apg not Steve Nash’s 11.5. Memphis can't expect Mike Conley to double his assist totals as a 20 yr old rookie. He will get there but for now the onus falls on the frontline to help.
If people want to see improvement in the team, we need to see improvement in team play and that means looking more for the open man and less on trusting their individual talent.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Wondering about the Wages of Wins
3 Shades of Blue in general (and myself in particular) have always been fans of the work of David Berri, one of the co-authors of the book Wages of Wins. I recently had the opportunity to ask David some questions via email about the Grizzlies and the Pau Gasol trade in particular. Here are the results of that conversation.
3SoB: David – First let me say how much I appreciate you taking the time to do this. I suppose given your Bakersfield residence you felt obligated the fill in the blanks left from the Pau Gasol trade. After all if Memphis can give the Lakers a championship you can at least give a bit of your time to the Grizzlies blog writers!
David: Glad to talk to you and your audience (which I gather is growing very rapidly).
3SoB: You wrote a book called the ‘Wages of Wins’ a few years back in which you attempt to use statistics to determine a player’s value and how many wins he actually produces for his team. Would you give us a Cliff Notes version of how this works?
David: Here is the overview of the Wins Produced model:
The model starts with the basic idea that wins in the NBA are determined by offensive and defensive efficiency (points divided by possessions). From this relationship, one can estimate the value of points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, personal fouls, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts. Additional statistical work gives us the value of a blocked shot and an assist.
Additional notes
1. The value of each statistic is derived from an econometric (or statistical) model. And the values are an estimate of the impact the statistic has on the outcomes we observe for the team.
2. The analysis indicates that points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and field goal attempts have virtually the same impact (in absolute terms) on wins. Personal fouls, free throw attempts, blocked shots, and assists are worth somewhat less than the other factors.
3. When we look at the impact of these statistics we learn two lessons:
a. In terms of scoring… efficiency matters. If you score points inefficiently you do not actually help your team win.
b. Possession variables – rebounds, turnovers, steals – impact outcomes. Players that don’t score, but get you rebounds and steals (and/or avoid turnovers), can have a significant impact on wins.
4. One last point… it is assumed that a player statistics are his statistics. In other words, if you score 10 points (or get 10 rebounds), you get credit for these points (or rebounds). If you take 5 shots, you are charged the cost of these shots. It’s important to note that there is some interaction between the player statistics, but I have found this effect to be rather small. For the most part, what you see in the NBA is what you get. So it makes sense to credit a player for his statistics (by the way, I would not make the same argument for NFL players)
3SoB: You wrote on your website that this trade makes the Lakers the favorites to win the West of they can get Bynum back. You went so far as to say that Gasol’s presence puts the Lakers among the elite in the West even without Bynum. From someone who remembers the Grizzlies 0-12 playoff record with Gasol, is this actually a playoff prediction you are making or just a regular season record assumption?
David: Let me start by reviewing the playoff history of Gasol on Memphis.
In 2005-06 the Grizzlies were the 5th best team (in terms of efficiency differential) in the NBA. But they faced Dallas in the first round, who happened to be the 3rd best team in the Association.
In 2004-05 the Grizzlies were the 7th best, facing the second best (Phoenix).
And in 2003-04 the Grizzlies were the 9th best, but faced the very best team in the league (San Antonio).
In sum, Gasol and Memphis were never favored in the first round. Yes, it is not beyond reason that they could have won a playoff game. But it was not expected that Memphis was going to win any of these playoff series. So judging Gasol on the Grizzlies lack of playoff success is a bit unfair.
Now about the Lakers…
Assuming Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza are healthy (a big if), here is what Gasol does for this team.
Gasol not only takes the minutes of Kwame Brown, but also probably some of the minutes of Vladimir Radmanovic and/or Ronny Turiaf. Gasol is more productive than all three, so that’s a big help.
In addition, his presence allows the Lakers to play Lamar Odom more minutes at small forward, where his value will be higher. Finally, and this is a smaller positive, Javaris Crittenton was easily the least productive guard on LA’s roster. So Crittenton’s departure helps a bit.
It’s important to note that the Lakers ability to challenge Boston depends on the health of Bynum. If Bynum is not healthy, then the Lakers do not look much different from the other elite teams in the West.
3SoB: What does this leave the Grizzlies with this year, according to your math? Is it possible the Grizzlies can surprise this year with unproven young players getting a real chance to perform?
David: There is a great saying from Mike Tyson…'Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.' (I took this from a Peter King SI.com column, and King was quoting Michael Strahan).
When I read this quote I was reminded of everyone who fought Tyson when he was in his prime. These fighters would tell themselves if they tried hard and believed; they could beat Tyson. Each of these fighters would enter the ring with a positive attitude and a clear plan to achieve victory. And then Tyson would hit them in the face and the plan would go to hell.
I tell this story because the Grizzlies are now in an Association where most every other team is Tyson. And the Grizzlies are telling themselves that if they try really hard, and execute their plan, they can shock the world.
Unfortunately, soon after the ball is thrown in the air at the start of each game, reality is going to set in. Memphis has too many holes to compete successfully most nights.
Look at the center and power forward positions. With Gasol gone, Kwame Brown becomes the most productive player Memphis employs at the four and five spot. And Brown is well below average. The other centers are Jason Collins and Darko Milicic, two players whose production of wins this year is in the negative range. At power forward the team is forced to play Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay, two players who do not rebound well enough to play the four spot. At the other three spots on the floor there is some production. Mike Miller is one of the most productive shooting guard-small forwards in the league. And Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are productive point guards.
But right now, those three players are the only above average performers on the team. Remember, wins in the NBA are not magical. Wins happen because your players are productive. Or to put it another way, if your players are not productive, you don’t get to win very much.
Given what your players have done this season, it would be truly surprising if Memphis was able to win games consistently the rest of the way.
All that being said, Memphis may win 10 more games the rest of the season. So 10 times you will get to say “if only they played like this every night, they would be pretty good.” But that line of reasoning is incorrect. Bad teams will win games and good teams will lose once in awhile. It’s what a team does over time that is the mark of how good or bad a team is, and I think over time – given this roster – the Grizzlies are going to disappoint their fans.
3SoB: Memphis is definitely suffering this season but I seem to remember something you wrote that implied a player’s best performance years don’t begin until their 3rd season in the league. That means Lowry, Conley, Gay, Hakim and even Darko if you eliminate his wasted two years in Detroit (he is only 22 after all) lie ahead of them. Throwing in some decent drafts and the team can progress in the future can’t it or am I just wishing on stars now?
David: If the players improved and/or the team adds more productive players, then of course the team improves.
Let me talk about improvement first. It is the case that young players can get better. But I think people go too far with this tendency. Basically people tend to see all young players as “future stars.”
Here is some data that might damper your enthusiasm. Looking back at the drafts from 1991-1995, here are the number of players in each draft to play at least 10,000 minutes in his career and post a career WP48 higher than 0.150 (average WP48 is 0.100 and I think 0.150 is a mark of someone who is “good”).
1991 – 4
1992 – 5
1993 – 3
1994 – 6
1995 – 2
There were 93 players drafted from 1991-95 who played 10,000 minutes in their NBA career. Of these, only 20 were significantly above average players throughout their careers. In other words, only 22% of players who played significant minutes in their career managed to be significantly above average players.
When people look at young players like Lowry, Conley, Gay, Warrick, and Milicic, they tend to think that each of these players could become “good.” But the data tells us that most young players never become “good.”
The early returns on these players do suggest that Conley and Lowry are going to be above average players. And I think Gay can be above average if he plays small forward. But I am not sure that Warrick and Milicic are going to develop into players who make a significant contribution to team success.
As for picking better players, that’s always possible. Let me talk about that below.
3SoB: Along those lines how long do most NBA players maintain their level of performance? Is there a general rule that says after a certain age most players start to decline in performance?
David: In general players get better when they are young and worse when they are old. But I don’t know the parameters of the curve (yet). This is one topic I wish to look at in the future.
3SoB: Chris Wallace has a lot of cap space available to him now. What upcoming free agents do you believe produce the most wins and who produces the least? (You can use the list provided at http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=2008freeagents for a guide here). What about college players?
David: Here are the top 20 unrestricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.
Player / Minutes Played / WP48 / Wins Produced
Shawn Marion (ETO) 1,473 / 0.314 / 9.6
Kurt Thomas 794 / 0.302 / 5.0
Baron Davis (ETO) 1,601 / 0.237 / 7.9
James Jones (P) 674 / 0.212 / 3.0
Brent Barry 541 / 0.207 / 2.3
DeSagana Diop 740 / 0.177 / 2.7
Antawn Jamison 1,612 / 0.175 / 5.9
Eddie House 814 / 0.163 / 2.8
Corey Maggette (ETO) 1,236 / 0.157 / 4.0
Anthony Carter 860 / 0.140 / 2.5
Grant Hill (P) 1,154 / 0.133 / 3.2
Bonzi Wells 907 / 0.132 / 2.5
Allen Iverson (ETO) 1,710 / 0.128 / 4.5
James Posey (P) 791 / 0.126 / 2.1
Carlos Arroyo 616 / 0.121 / 1.6
Sam Cassell 755 / 0.119 / 1.9
Anthony Johnson 914 / 0.119 / 2.3
Mickael Pietrus 637 / 0.098 / 1.3
Beno Udrih 1,188 / 0.091 / 2.3
Here are the top 15 restricted free agents (among players who played at least 500 minutes in the first half of 2007-08). The players are ranked in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] over the first half of this season.
Player / Minutes Played / WP48 Wins / Produced
Jose Calderon 1,277 / 0.319 / 8.5
Andris Biedrins 1,130 / 0.303 / 7.1
Josh Childress 1,068 / 0.219 / 4.9
Emeka Okafor 1,359 / 0.203 / 5.7
Dorell Wright 649 / 0.170 / 2.3
Carlos Delfino 1,015 / 0.170 / 3.6
Andre Iguodala 1,607 / 0.165 / 5.5
Luol Deng 1,145 / 0.152 / 3.6
Ryan Gomes 1,128 / 0.131 / 3.1
Paul Millsap (T) 862 / 0.130 / 2.3
Monta Ellis 1,431 / 0.122 / 3.6
Josh Smith 1,426 / 0.114 / 3.4
Daniel Gibson 1,274 / 0.073 / 1.9
Kelenna Azubuike (P) 987 / 0.070 / 1.4
Ronny Turiaf 637 / 0.059 / 0.8
As you can see, there are a few free agents who will help. DeSagana Diop is an interesting possibility, since he has been above average before this season. James Jones is a big reason the Blazers have improved, but he has not been productive in the past. So I am not sure he will continue to perform like this in the future.
As for the draft, Erich Doerr posted a study at the Wages of Wins Journal a few days ago. One name that leaped out was Kevin Love.
Love would give the Grizzlies what they need at power forward. So he would help. Of course he has to declare for the draft. And the Grizzlies have to select him. And he has to produce as a pro. So there are quite a few ifs with respect to Love and the draft.
I think you should see, though, that it is possible for the Grizzlies to get better in the future. But a few things I would emphasize:
1. I am not optimistic about this team as it is currently constructed.
2. It is possible for this team to improve, but it is going to need to get more productive players.
3. I do not think the Gasol trade is going to help the Grizzlies get more productive players. At least, I am not optimistic about trying to improve a team via low first round draft choices.
3SoB: Any other comments you would like to make?
David: Thanks for the opportunity to answer your questions. I wish I could give fans of Memphis more hope in the short-run.
David Berri is a professor at CSU-Bakerfield and writes the Wages of Wins Journal where he is always putting up timely and informative blogs. We at 3 Shades of Blue highly recommend you checking out his site.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Gasol vs. Kwame Brown + 2 in Stats
The franchise players is gone! Here is what the Grizz got in return!
See full stats onGriz Board here.
Kwame Brown #54 Center | |||||||||||||||
 | 2007-08 Statistics | ||||||||||||||
| PPG 5.7 | |||||||||||||||
| RPG 5.70 | |||||||||||||||
| APG 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
EFF + 8.74 | |||||||||||||||
| Born: Mar 10, 1982 | |||||||||||||||
| Height: 6-11 / 2,11 | |||||||||||||||
| Weight: 270 lbs. / 122,5 kg. | |||||||||||||||
| High Sch: Glynn Academy (GA) | |||||||||||||||
| Years Pro: 6 | |||||||||||||||
Career Season Averages | |||||||||||||||
Yr | G | GS | MPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | OFF | DEF | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | PF | PPG |
| 07-08 | 23 | 14 | 22.1 | 0.515 | 0.000 | 0.406 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.61 | 2.50 | 5.7 |
| Car | 389 | 185 | 24.1 | 0.484 | 0.125 | 0.602 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.47 | 2.30 | 7.6 |
Pau Gasol #16 Forward - Center | |||||||||||||||
 | 2007-08 Statistics | ||||||||||||||
| PPG 18.9 | |||||||||||||||
| RPG 8.80 | |||||||||||||||
| APG 3.0 | |||||||||||||||
| EFF + 22.33 | |||||||||||||||
| Born: Jul 6, 1980 | |||||||||||||||
| Height: 7-0 / 2,13 | |||||||||||||||
| Weight: 260 lbs. / 117,9 kg. | |||||||||||||||
| From: Spain | |||||||||||||||
| Years Pro: 6 | |||||||||||||||
Career Season Averages | |||||||||||||||
Yr | G | GS | MPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | OFF | DEF | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | PF | PPG |
| 07-08 | 39 | 39 | 36.7 | 0.501 | 0.267 | 0.819 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 18.9 |
| Car | 476 | 470 | 35.5 | 0.509 | 0.230 | 0.730 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 18.8 |
+
Javaris Crittenton #1 Guard | |||||||||||||||
 | 2007-08 Statistics | ||||||||||||||
| PPG 3.3 | |||||||||||||||
| RPG 1.00 | |||||||||||||||
| APG 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
EFF + 2.73 | |||||||||||||||
| Born: Dec 31, 1987 | |||||||||||||||
| Height: 6-5 / 1,96 | |||||||||||||||
| Weight: 200 lbs. / 90,7 kg. | |||||||||||||||
| College: Georgia Tech | |||||||||||||||
| Years Pro: Rookie | |||||||||||||||
Career Season Averages | |||||||||||||||
Yr | G | GS | MPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | OFF | DEF | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | PF | PPG |
| 07-08 | 22 | 0 | 7.8 | 0.491 | 0.333 | 0.679 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 3.3 |
Aaron McKie #2 Guard | |||||||||||||||
 | 2007-08 Statistics | ||||||||||||||
| PPG 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| RPG 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| APG 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
EFF + ? | |||||||||||||||
| Born: Oct 2, 1972 | |||||||||||||||
| Height: 6-5 / 1,96 | |||||||||||||||
| Weight: 209 lbs. / 94,8 kg. | |||||||||||||||
| College: Temple | |||||||||||||||
| Years Pro: 13 | |||||||||||||||
Career Season Averages | |||||||||||||||
Yr | G | GS | MPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | OFF | DEF | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | PF | PPG |
| 05-06 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Car | 75 | 26 | 28.5 | 0.437 | 0.385 | 0.801 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.35 | 2.50 | 9.5 |
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Rebounding - The Real Story
Grizzlies, 16th in the league in rebounding the basketball as Stan Van Gundy talks to Matt Bolin as offensive rebounding has been very good tonight.
Pete Pranica during the Orlando Magic game on January 23rd. 
Wow, that just makes you feel better already doesn't it. Memphis is middle of the pack in rebounding after being near the bottom the last few years. We must really be doing a lot better on the boards.
Well, as with most statistics, the beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Yes, the Grizzlies are currently 16th in the league in rebounds. However we are currently 24th in opposition rebounding. We are also 24th in rebounding differential at -2.07 a game.
Why the discrepancy? We are increasing the number of possessions in the game. More possessions means quicker shots being taken and more rebounding opportunities. Yes the Grizzlies are doing a better job of getting those rebounds but it isn't like we are better than almost half the teams in the league. This is an improvement from earlier in the season when the Grizzlies were languishing at the bottom of the rankings but they haven't stepped out of the bottom 20% yet either.
As I said, statistics are in the eye of the beholder.
On a positive note (and I do still like to see things in a sunshine state of mind) the Grizzlies over the last 10 games (roughly 1/4th of the season) are dramatically improved in rebounding in every sense of the word. Over that time frame the Grizzlies are outrebounding their opponents by 1.0 rebounds a game. That is tied with Orlando for 11th best in the league. They also are 9th in the league in team rebounds at 43.1 a game. So while the team over the entire season is not really doing that well on the boards over the last 10 games they are.
What is causing the difference?
I am sure some people will say that they have played poorer rebounding teams is the one and only reason. That isn't exactly true however. Yes Miami is the worst team in the league over that time frame but the Cavs are 1st in the league over and the Lakers (who the Grizzlies played twice) are 4th. You can't explain the increase solely in terms of opposition.
Others will point out that Memphis is using their guards to rebound more and that is why the rebounding is improving. The problem with that theory is only Mike Miller is actually rebounding and his has been declining not improving over the last 10 games. So much for the rebounding by guards theory.
There is one theory however that I put forward many weeks ago in explaining the Grizzlies poor interior defense. I postulated that Gasol and Milicic had not played many consecutive games together in the starting lineup and that was probably the root cause of the Grizzlies defensive woes. The pair have now started 14 consecutive games together and over the last 10 the Grizzlies have risen from one of the worst rebounding teams in the league to a top 10 rebounding team.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
What's more since the start of January (and the Ivory Towers streak of starting consecutive games together) the Grizzlies defense has improved in opponents field goal percentage. So the team is holding teams to a lower FG% and grabbing more of those rebounds. The interesting thing is that Darko actually isn't grabbing more rebounds. Gasol and Gay are the main rebounding beneficiaries of the consistent front line. In fact Darko's personal rebounding numbers have dropped significantly in the last 10 games. Peculiar I admit but the team's defensive FG% tells the story in my opinion. Teams are not shooting as well against the Grizzlies as they were earlier in the season even including Orlando's hot shooting Wednesday night.
So Pete thanks for pointing out the rebounding story. It is a little deceiving the way you said it in the broadcast but it did allow me to discuss the issue in greater detail on the blog.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Links: Wages of Wins Reviews the SW Division
Short and sweet today as we prepare for back-to-back weekend games, as well as the Tigers taking on Georgetown tomorrow morning.
David Berri has been reviewing each division in the NBA over the past weeks and has arrived at the Southwest Division today. A few interesting observations from his post:
There were no more than two teams with a positive efficiency differential in the divisions reviewed thus far. In the Southwest, though, four of the five teams have a differential that’s above zero. And so far, ten of the teams examined have been worse than the Memphis Grizzlies. In sum, this is one tough division.
In other words, the Boys from Beale Street aren't quite as bad off as some fans would have you believe. They aren't good -- but they aren't horrific either.
Dave also promises something that should be of unique interest to Memphis fans:
My plan is to write a specific column on each of these teams that will re-visit the Shane Battier for Rudy Gay trade. Look for that column in a few days.
I'm sure that Chip will be all over that post like a fat kid on a cupcake. Check out the link for the full review of the toughest division in the NBA.
That's all for today. Look for a Christmas Wish List next week, as well as a fantastic interview with Geoff Calkins. Enjoy the three Memphis basketball games over the next two days and the Tigers bowl game tonight in N'awlins. Happy Holidays everyone.
Website/Blog of the Day: PhDribble
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Correlating Grizzlies Success
I've mentioned a few times in pregame write-ups, that since the Grizzlies are so bad at defense that they need to shoot well to win, and in particular 3-point shooting seems to be essential.
Of course, this issue hasn't gotten past Chris Herrington either. He has been bringing the topic up over and over again in his pre- and post-game analyses. In fact, this is what he wrote after the Warriors game:
The Overwhelming Importance of Three-Point Shooting
I’ve been hammering this all season, but perhaps no game this season has illustrated how much this Grizzlies team depends on three-point shooting than tonight’s did. The Grizzlies shot 9-29 (31%) from three on the game, which isn’t terrible on the surface, but also isn’t generally good enough. On the season, the team is now 5-4 when they hit 10 or more threes, 2-13 when they don’t.And what’s so intimidating is that the Grizzlies don’t just have to be good from three to win. They have to be great. In losses this season, the Grizzlies have shot a respectable 37% as a team on threes, with 36% and 40% shooting, respectively, from Mike Miller and Juan Carlos Navarro. In wins, the team has shot 42% from three with 52% and 42% shooting from Miller and Navarro, respectively. Essentially, the Grizzlies are so bad defensively and, with Gasol either slumping or injured most of the season, so erratic in the post that they have to hit a lot of threes to score enough to win.
I think just about anyone that follows the Grizzlies will agree that this team lives by the 3 and dies by the 3. The biggest stat that jumps out to me is that the Griz are only 2-13 when not hitting 10 or more treys.
This observation caused me to dive a little deeper in an attempt to further back up the claim that Grizzlies success is correlated to 3-point shooting.
Here is the question I am going to investigate here:
What team statistics correlate with Grizzlies success?
To investigate this question, I correlate the Grizzlies eam statistics to point differential, using the game-log stats provided by stats.com. I am using point differential instead of merely win/loss because it lends itself to a statistical analysis better. And also, this post goes great with Chip's recent post about scoring efficiency and be on the lookout for yet another statistical based post by MemphisX on turnovers and points off of them.
What is the Correlation Coefficient?
The correlation coefficient relates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and 1. A coefficient of 0 (zero) indicates no correlation. 'Significant' correlation is usually defined to be between 0.5 and 1 (and of course -0.5 and -1). 'Moderate' correlation is usually defined to be between +/-0.3 and +/-0.5. For this exercise I am going to mostly concentrate on any statistical categories that fall into the 'significant' range since our sample size is a bit small.
It should also be noted though that correlation does not imply causation. I am not looking for a cause to why the Griz win or loss games, but rather just what statistical categories tend to correlate best with Grizzlies success.
As well as the correlation coefficient between two sets of data, I calculate the probability of getting the observed correlation by random chance when the true correlation is zero. For this number, the lower the better, and typically below 0.05 is considered improbable, which would then support the hypothesis that the two variables are 'significantly' correlated.
All in all there are many caveats to take into consideration when examining the correlation between two variables, but nonetheless let's move on. I leave the 'be skeptical' lecture to your statistics professor.
Results
I correlated most, if not all, the available team statistics to point differential for the 24 games played this year (that is up through the Golden State game). The usual suspects are there: points, made and attempted shots (FG, FT and 3), percentage for and against, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. Below is a table showing the results (correlation coefficient and probability of random chance) for these various categories.
The Obvious: Scoring More Points Helps
The two obvious categories that show a significant correlation to point differential are points scored and FG's made. Both points scored and FG's made have a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.56.
In short, the Grizzlies win more when the score more. Makes sense and it follows logically from the conventional wisdom that the Griz are always bad on defense, so to be competitive they must score a lot. Notice I said 'be competitive' and not 'win'. That is because I am correlating the game stats with point differential. So, in theory we could not have won a single game, but still show a significant correlation to a certain statistic.
FG%
Not 3-Point Shooting?
As it turns out, 3-point percentage and 3-pointers made do not show a significant correlation to point differential. 3-point percentage has a correlation coefficient of only 0.23, which is only 'minor' while 3-pointers made shows a 'moderate' correlation at 0.34. I am surprised by this and thought the correlation would be higher. Here is the scatter plot of 3-pointers made versus point differential.
Why Micheal Conley May Make a Big Difference
We all know that Conley's best skill is his nifty passing. And as it turns out, the one stat that correlates the best to Grizzlies Success is assists. The correlation coefficient is 0.69 and the probability number shows that it is almost impossible that the result is because of random chance. I also correlated assists-to-FG's made (for you HPTMatt) and assists-to-turnovers to point differential. Both had correlation coefficients in the 0.6 range as well, but not quite as high as just plain assists. Here is the scatter plot of assists versus point differential.
Of course the converse is also true, when the other team has a lot of assists, we are more likely to have a bad point differential (-0.64 correlation coefficient).
Conclusions
Scoring in general seems to be the good indicator of success. Assists seem to be the best indicator of success and might mean more than 3-point shooting does, which wasn't initially what I thought would be the result buts makes perfect sense now. Other categories like rebounds and turnovers didn't show that much of a correlation to point differential, however we all know they also contribute to our success or lack thereof.
Scoring Efficiency?
Andrew Perma wrote an interesting column over at RealGM.com examining the top 50 scorers in the NBA by scoring efficiency.
It got me wondering how efficient are the Grizzlies players using the same standard of points scored divided by shot attempts.
The results were somewhat surprising. The most efficient player (granted with a very small set of numbers to choose from) was Michael Conley. Remember that these figures aren't taking into account the value of assists either. Strictly viewing the shot attempts and the points Michael is the best scorer on the team averaging 1.4737 points per shot attempts. To put this in perspective, the best three point guards among the top 50 scorers in the league were Steve Nash (1.48), Deron Williams (1.40) and Chris Paul (1.34). Now I don't know if Conley will ever score enough to be in the top 50 of the NBA so don't read too much into that but the optomists can take some joy if they want to.
Following Conley were Stromile Swift (1.4653) and Hakim Warrick (1.4623).
The least efficient scorer is Darko Milicic. He averages just above 1 point per shot attempt. Again this is not an overall evaluation of the player since defensive stats are not included in any respect. This simply states that Darko hasn't been very good at putting the ball in the hoop yet this season. Following Darko were Tarence Kinsey, Brain Cardinal and Casey Jacobsen.
In 9th place in scoring efficiency is Rudy Gay. His 1.271 mark would place him in the middle of the pack of the top 50 scorers in the league. Rudy either needs to get to the foul line more or hit more three point shots. Personally I expect as Rudy begins to get respect from the officials we are going to see him at the line a lot more often as the season progresses.
The team's ranking top to bottom are as follows:
Mike Conley 1.4737
Stromile Swift 1.4636
Hakim Warrick 1.4414
Kyle Lowry 1.4171
Mike Miller 1.3963
Pau Gasol 1.3297
Andre Brown 1.3125
Juan Carlos Navarro 1.2794
Rudy Gay 1.2710
Damon Stoudamire 1.0859
Casey Jacobsen 1.0727
Brian Cardinal 1.0625
Tarence Kinsey 1.0526
Darko Milicic 1.0339
Calculating the team's average gives us a total of 1937 shots and 2503 points or 1.2922 pts per shot attempt.
What makes the team scoring efficiency interesting is in an historical perspective. Last season the Grizzlies were considered a run and gun, no defense team and the scoring efficiency was 1.2920. Nearly identical to this seasons. The 2005-06 season, the era of Fratello and the dead ball syndrome was 1.2340. The team scored less and were less efficient when they did score. One wouldn't expect that outcome. Previous seasons were as follows with the team's win total in parenthesis:
2006-07 (22): 1.2920
2005-06 (49): 1.2340
2004-05 (45): 1.2217
2003-04 (50): 1.1912
2002-03 (28): 1.1857
2001-02 (23): 1.1281
What can we conclude from these numbers. Not much. Maybe this tells us is that scoring efficiently isn't as important as playing defense, rebounding or TOs. I determined opponents scoring efficiency to see if it had a more direct relationship to winning.
2006-07 (22): 1.2946
2005-06 (49): 1.1755
2004-05 (45): 1.2024
2003-04 (50): 1.1802
2002-03 (28): 1.1787
2001-02 (23): 1.1688
Again no clear correlation between a more efficient defense producing more wins. So basically I did all of this work to come to the conclusion that while interesting to talk about scoring efficiency has absolutely no correlation to winning and so it really has little relevance to a discussion of either a team or a players individual contributions.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Predictions and Expectations
As we draw ever closer to the start of the 2007/08 NBA season, the Net is buzzing with predictions about how each team and player will perform this year. The Memphis Grizzlies Message Boards typically have a thread or two concerning this very subject and this year is no different with a thread dealing just with the newest imports already up and running. The predictions range from cautiously optimistic to wildly hopeful, which is to be expected with any fan base. So, in the spirit of that, I'll attempt to predict the stats for each member of the Grizzlies.
Pau Gasol
Career stats: 35.4 MPG, 18.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 BPG, .510 FG%, .724 FT%
2006/07 stats: 36.1 MPG, 20.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.1 BPG, .539 FG%, .748 FT%
Preseason stats: 23.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.75 BPG, .375 FG%, .765 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 38 MPG, 22.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.9 BPG, .530 FG%, .766 FT%
Pau should see an increase in scoring and assists, while the additional help provided by Darko and friends will cause a slight decrease in his rebounding numbers from his career high last season.
Mike Miller
Career stats: 31.8 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, .454 FG%, .398 3PT%, .771 FT%
2006/07 stats: 39.1 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, .460 FG%, .406 3PT%, .793 FT%
Preseason stats: 24.6 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, .382 FG%, .300 3PT%, .600 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%
Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.
Rudy Gay
Career Stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
2006/07 stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
Preseason stats: 30.3 MPG, 15.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.63 SPG, 1.75 BPG, .462 FG%, .385 3PT%, .871 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%
Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Damon Stoudamire
Career Stats: 34.3 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, .408 FG%, .358 3PT%, .834 FT%
2006/07 stats: 24.2 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, .391 FG%, .337 3PT%, .795 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.3 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, .465 FG%, .364 3PT%, .875 FT%
2007/08 projected stats (November/December): 18 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.1 SPG, .388 FG%, .350 3PT%, .844 FT%
Damon will be given about two months to prove that he is healthy and can contribute to a veteran team with playoff aspirations (or possibly even title dreams), at which point he will be traded to that team. Call it showcasing if you want, but I believe that this course of action is also necessary so that the Grizzlies don't just throw their young PG's to the wolves right off the bat.
Darko Milicic
Career stats: 15.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 BPG, .444 FG%, .610 FT%
2006/07 stats: 23.9 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.8 BPG, .454 FG%, .613 FT%
Preseason stats: 22.1 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, .351 FG%, .469 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Juan Carlos Navarro
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 24.1 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, .413 FG%, .419 3PT%, .833 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
"La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Kyle Lowry
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
2006/07 stats: (10 games) 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.4 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, .417 FG%, .000 3PT%, .706 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Stromile Swift
Career stats: 20.7 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 0.7 SPG, .471 FG%, .705 FT%
2006/07 stats: 19.1 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 0.6 SPG, .465 FG%, .724 FT%
Preseason stats: 18.6 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.75 BPG, 1.0 SPG, .688 FG%, .750 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.0 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .470 FG%, .711 FT%
I think that Stro will be playing elsewhere next season. Either he'll play to his normal levels and be traded (possibly in the impending Damon trade) or he'll exceed everyone's expectations, in which case he'll opt out of his contract to get one more substantial payday. Through the preseason, he has given fans reason to once again hope for a realization of his "Strotential" (hat tip: Scott), but I'm not sure that even a contract year is motivation enough for Stro to achieve consistency.
Hakim Warrick
Career stats: 19.2 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.3 BPG, 0.4 SPG, .504 FG%, .746 FT%
2006/07 stats: 26.2 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .524 FG%, .771 FT% Preseason stats: 17.4 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.75 SPG, .451 FG%, .645 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Michael Conley
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 16.0 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, .38 SPG, .407 FG%, .500 3PT%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Casey Jacobsen
Career stats: 20.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, .399FG%, .370 3PT%, .770 FT%
2004/05 stats: 21.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, .406 FG%, .373 3PT%, .783 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.8 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, .583 FG%, .552 3PT%, .500 FT%
2006/07 projected stats: 8.5 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, .412 FG%, .389 3PT%, .786 FT%
For whatever reason, Casey seems to have taken Tarence Kinsey's allotment of minutes in the preseason. The most likely explanation for that is that Kinsey's shoulder injury from summer league is more serious than anyone thought. However, it could be that Jacobsen's outside shooting is seen as a more valuable commodity than Kinsey's perimeter defense at this point. We'll see how that plays out over the course of the season.
Tarence Kinsey
Career stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
2006/07 stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
Preseason stats: 13.8 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, .400 FG%, .250 3PT%, 1.000 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.2 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, .462 FG%, .311 3PT%, .781 FT%
TK impressed a lot of fans with his play during the last 3 weeks of last season. Of course, some pundits have openly wondered if that was merely a flash in the pan or if he can consistently play at that high level. Unfortunately, as noted above, we haven't seen much of Kinsey in the preseason to be able to gauge him on. I would hope that Kinsey can duplicate his "poor man's Tayshaun Prince" act from late last season, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting on it to happen.
Brian Cardinal
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, .425 fG%, .397 3PT%, .862 FT%
2006/07 stats: 11.2 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8 SPG, .494 FG%, .409 3PT%, .926 FT%
Preseason stats: 10.6 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.4 SPG, .435 FG%, .300 3PT%, .667 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 3.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, .467 FG%, .419 3PT%, .866 FT%
The Custodian has suffered through three injury plagued seasons since signing with the Grizzlies. While many fans consider his contract a millstone, I think that they have forgotten about how important he was to the team in 2004/05 when he carried the team while Pau Gasol was out battling foot issues, helping them to maintain momentum and reach the playoffs. I don't think that BC will get much burn this season, but his unique skillset could prove to be valuable, as he is a PF capable of shooting from the perimeter proficiently.
Andre Brown
Career stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
2006/07 stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.7 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, .467 FG%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, .551 FG%, .667 FT%
What can I say about a guy who probably won't see the floor except in blowouts and the case of injuries affecting the roster? He's long on hustle and short on ball-handling, so he'll get a few minutes here and there throughout the season, but will mostly spend time on the Inactive List.
So there are my predictions for the team's statistical outlook for the season. If you add them all up, it won't look right in terms of Team MPG, PPG, RPG, etc., but it never does, so don't worry about it.
Now the second part of the title to this thread is expectations. I was already working on this post when I wandered over to the Grizzlies Message Board and saw that someone else had a similar idea. The high-quality poster named bgassassin started a thread titled "For Rudy's sake, please dial down some of your expectations" , which implored Grizzlies' fans to be realistic in their predictions for the player many hope is the Grizzlies future star. He put great effort into finding statistics that showed that even the greatest of players struggled with certain aspects of the game in their formative years in the league. WIth his permission, I'm reproducing his work here:
With Rudy's shooting, someone needs to let him know that he doesn't have to be a great outside shooter now. Or for that matter an elite player now. Yet at the same time, I think we have been too harsh on him at times as well.
Jordan was not a good shooter when he came in the league. He was putting up big numbers while being a poor outside shooter. In fact, here are Jordan's 3pt% numbers his first four years and what he averaged:
84-85 - .173 (28.2ppg)
85-86 - .167 (22.7ppg, cut short due to injury)
86-87 - .182 (37.1ppg)
88-89 - .132 (35.0ppg)
Kobe has never even reached 40% from outside. His best was .383 five years ago. In fact, his second best shooting year was his rookie year (.375) and he struggled till the aforementioned time.
The player most of us compare him to, Shawn Marion, started out his first season at an atrocious .183 from behind the arc. He peaked in his third season and has regressed ever since.
Vince Carter started out at .288 from three.
And if we REALLY want to get picky, Reggie Miller shot .355 from outside his first season.
As you can see out of this selected group, only Kobe shot a higher percentage his rookie year than Rudy's .364. And as far as makes and attempts, only Reggie and Kobe are comparable in their first season. Is he really as bad as we think? Should two preseason games continue or even strengthen a certain thought about him? I will admit that I have been guilty of this thought as well at times.Rudy obviously must learn to attack the basket as often as possible to set up his jumpshot. At least then he should be in a position where he's not subconsciously falling away when he does shoot.
As you can see, many players who are considered elite superstars have struggled with parts of their game, only to develop that skill as their career progressed. For this team that is full of young talent (average age of the Grizzlies: 23.7 years old; 22.3 without Damon and BC), patience will be required when establishing expectations for the upcoming season, as well as their progress in the future. Too often we allow our best-case scenario "hopes and dreams" get mixed up with what is realistically achievable. That's one of the reasons I set our win prediction (37 wins) as low as I did. That is a 15-game improvement from last year which, injuries/bad luck or not in 2006/07, is a tremendous jump for any team that didn't acquire a star-level player in the offseason. I'd be happy with even fewer wins than that, to be quite honest.
Improving in the NBA is meant to be a gradual process, contrary to popular opinion. That's one of the reasons that only 8 teams have won a championship in the last 25 years. Many people are comparing this team to the 2003/04 Grizzlies that went from 28 wins the previous season to 50 wins and the playoffs. I admire their optimistic viewpoint, but that team skipped at least 3 steps that most young teams go through. In all likelihood, they should have gone from 28 wins to 33-36, then to 41-44 and then to 50 and the playoffs. This amazing jump lead to unrealistic expectations of title contention for a young NBA fanbase that wasn't as studied in the history of professional basketball as those in the cities of historic contenders (Boston, L.A., Chicago, Detroit, et al), despite having a rich basketball history in the area of high school and college levels. So, much like bgassassin, I urge all of you to temper your expectations for this Grizzlies team. I don't expect them to come roaring out of the gates. Rather, I expect a slow start, as the team develops chemistry, learns each other's tendencies and adapts to Marc Iavaroni's system. That means that they are quite likely going to be below .500 by more than a few games when January rolls around. This isn't all doom-and-gloom, though, because I think they will come together and play well for the last two to three months of the season, which will hopefully carry over to next year. That's my outlook for this season, so send all cheers or jeers to the Comments section.
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