Bargain Shopping, Part 1: The Denver Nuggets

By Lee Eric Smith

I have a buddy who is a wine expert. I was joking with him once about getting a great $50 bottle of wine. He simply replied: "Anybody can buy a great bottle of wine for $50. The question is, can you find a great bottle of wine for $10?"

These days, the cream of the crop of NBA GMs tend to share that great quality of being able to build a good team by finding great bargains -- R.C. Buford in San Antonio, Joe Dumars in Detroit, even Jerry West was prescient enough to swap proven big man Vlade Divac for some high school kid named Kobe Bryant, bucking the wisdom of not trading big for small. Maybe Chris Wallace can catch some of that magic himself.

So after reading Henry Abbott's True Hoop posting about "teams in turmoil," it got me thinking: some teams might be ripe for trades -- not all due to basketball reasons either. Hence, this, the first in a periodic series I'll write this month called, "Bargain Shopping." Our first stop at the Clearance Mall: The Denver Nuggets.

Why Denver:
You think it sucks for the Grizz not to get out of the first round? At least our excuse was that we only had Pau, Mike Miller and Shane. Imagine having a team with Iverson, Melo and Camby, and not being able to do it. They're WAAAAY over the cap, which means they'll have to pay $6.3 million in luxury tax. Key players (AI, Melo, Nene) are all pissed about the Camby trade. Then there's Furious George's tendency to grate his players. Oh, and it's not like the West is getting weaker, either. Sounds like a recipe for cleaning house.

Proposed Deal:
Allen Iverson ($21M) for Antoine Walker ($9M) + Kyle Lowry($1.1M) + Hakim Warrick ($2.1M).



















Crunching Numbers:
This is mostly about money. For those who are wondering how those contracts add up, put away your calculators: they don't. Except for the fact that Denver is $10 million over the cap, and we're $10 million under it. Means we could take on AI's salary without going over.

Why Memphis Does It:
It's Allen Freakin' Iverson! On other message boards, I've proposed getting AI a couple of times, and I stick to it for the same reasons: Galvanizes the fan base, makes us relevant, he plays with heart and fire, and then there's the fact that he scores in bunches, even at 32. He's in a contract year, so it's not like we'd be on the hook past this year anyway. Would allow us to bring O.J. along slowly, gets us veteran leadership, etc. There's no downside here.

Why Denver Does It:
I can think of at least $6.3 million reasons. Taking Iverson's contract off the books would put them under the cap, saving them that amount of money. And while the Nuggets would no doubt ask for somebody like Mayo or Gay, Hak and Kyle are two young pieces to work with (along with the first shot at resigning them), at two positions where they need young pieces. Plus, with Antoine's expiring contract, they get the same cap relief they would with Iverson next summer, only without having to pay $6 million in between. Hak and Melo have played together before at Syracuse, and are good friends. Kyle brings defensive toughness, which they need also. The Nuggests need to rebuild sooner or later, and this would not be a bad start, coming out with at least $10 million for next year's free agent crop.

I could run a couple different scenarios that would involve getting Carmelo and/or Nene, but I just don't see Denver giving up Melo, or us giving up what it would take to get him -- not with Rudy progressing so nicely, and OJ and Conley showing such promise.

I know some would be concerned with AI's age, attitude, durability, etc. But to me the pros FAR outweigh the cons. And he would be loved in Memphis just as much as he was in Philly, if not more, giving us instant "street cred."

More to come in the series . . . in the meantime, what do you think? AI in Beale St. Blue? Post below . . .

About that Zach for Darko/Marko Deal . . .

by Lee Eric Smith

Lots of linkety-links, mostly from NY Media . . .

Newsday: Darko would welcome a trade.
TheKnicksBlog: Grizz want a first rounder.
RealGM Message Boards (via translation): Darko's "99 percent sure" he'll be a Knick by Friday.
Newsday Blog: Zach expects to be with Grizzlies this fall.

I know we're just Memphis, smallest NBA market, dealing with NY, the NBA's Biggest, but all I keep hearing about is why NY wants to unload Zach. . . . kind of an addition by subtraction thing.

What I haven't heard is: Why are we doing this trade?

I get it, Zach is a veteran 20-10 guy, a complete bull in the post, and we need somebody we can throw the ball to when the game slows down. And maybe that's all that needs to be said. But somehow, that doesn't seem like enough.

Upgrade? Look at it this way: NBA analysts all over the net are considering Darko a mild UPGRADE in New York, or at least a better fit. Now think about how the consensus on Darko is that he's a bust, and maybe you understand my concern. Why would Donnie Walsh trade a proven 20-10 guy for a promising, but still unproven Darko? Who's really getting fleeced here?

If Zach Don't Fit in NY: Given that Iavaroni wants to run just as much as D'Antoni in NY, and Z-Bo "doesn't fit" in D'Antoni's system, it begs the question of how Z would fit in Memphis.

Defense. Zach's not known for it; Kevin O'Neill will DEMAND IT. If we're trying to IMPROVE defense, why trade our best shot blocker? And do you think there would be chaos in the locker room if O'Neill jumped down Z-Bo's throat for missing an assignment? What would that do to chemistry? Would Zach run over Iavaroni?

What do we already have? Granted Hak is skinny and 'Toine is older, but Hak put up respectable numbers at the 4 in about 23 minutes, as did 'Toine in 19. I'm not saying that either of them is as good as Zach, but together, their production could conceivably add up to Z-Bo's -- without giving up an improving big man in Darko. Besides, if neither Zach nor Hak (hey, a rhyme) are going to play defense at the 4, I'd rather go with the young gun, who probably fits better with our running, swarming style (I hope . . . for both the style and Hak's fit).

The Knucklehead Factor. It's been said that both Zach and 'Toine can be knuckleheads. If that's true, in my mind, the tie goes to the one with the ring: Antoine Walker. He won a championship with Miami in 2006, and has more playoff wins than Zach. Plus, he's adapting to his now-and-future role as an aging player: backup to the younger players -- Hak and Darrell.

Paper. Ah yes, the money. Z-Bo's contract is the same as Pau's was, even expires at the same time (I think). Granted Z is tougher and meaner than Pau, no question, but I'm not sure how he fits the 3YP.

Proposed deal makes SOME basketball sense, little financial sense (unless they hold out for the draft pick), and almost NO "chemistry" sense. . . . to me, anyway. So . . .

Why are we doing this again?

If you got answers, please explain below . . .

Rumors Cooking . . .

Ron Tillery is blogging over at the Memphis Edge about potential moves for our boys in blue. Most of it involves one or both of the following:

• Trading Mike Conley to Portland for Travis Outlaw and spare parts (Tillery says it's a bad idea, and I agree):

If that’s the case, the Griz would need more than Outlaw in return. But I don’t believe trading Conley is a wise move. Trading Conley would put the Griz back at square one, again searching for a dynamic point guard to compensate for the loss of the GOOD Jason Williams.

And why would Griz give up on a smart, physically gifted point guard so quickly? So that Mayo can handle the ball? Take away Conley’s quirky injuries and remember he’s just 20 years old, and the Griz would be wise to keep him. My guess is that they will given Conley was a deal breaker in attempts to get the right to draft Michael Beasley.

• Trading Darko Milicic to New York for Zach Randolph (also a bad idea, if you ask me):

The Griz are willing to part with Darko Milicic (last year’s big free agent signing) in a package that wouldn’t require a core player (OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, etc). What the brain trust seems to be debating is whether Randolph fits the Grizzlies’ style on and off the court.

Randolph is a bonafide low-post scorer who can shoot along the perimeter and rebound. But he doesn’t offer much on defense, something the Griz desperately want to upgrade and Randolph’s character issues may present a problem.

As I've said elsewhere, I want to see what we have first, before we start making moves. Frankly, I think some of these rumors are just based on folks thinking that Chris Wallace is a sucker after the Gasol trade. I still think that trade is going to bear great fruit for us, and given the way Pau (under)performed in the NBA Finals, some of the sting of that trade has already worn off.

Z-Bo is a bonafide 20-10 bull in the post, but I think we should stay away for another reason than Tillery covers above: His contract is identical to Pau's. I remember this because at one point, I advocated trading Pau for Zach. But given where the team is going, and more importantly, their desire to maintain flexibility for next offseason, I don't see them tying up salary in Z-Bo, because I don't think he's that "difference-maker" that the Front Office wants. Not saying he's not a good player; I just don't see him as the difference maker.

Three other points:

1. As for trading Darko, I know I'm alone on this, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think the main problem is that his past coaches haven't used his strengths as they should. His game has looked weak as a back-to-the-basket center. I still think that the kid can shoot, and has shown an ability to take other centers off the dribble. If they used him as more a Mehmet Okur-type center -- pull opposing centers out of the lane for Conley, Mayo and Gay to drive and score, or drive and dish to Darko for a three -- it would pay HUGE dividends. I'm sure somebody here will take me to task on the Serbian Gangster, however . . .

2. I still want to see what Antoine Walker has left. Consider it a contract year, he still has an NBA championship, and I think the PT is there for him at PF, which is to say that I think he has a decent shot at beating out Hak and Arthur with his play and veteran savvy. The big question is whether or not he's motivated. I'm betting it is, because I can't see him retiring at 31-32, and he'll want to sign with/be traded to a contender later. But this is a great opportunity for him to regain cred as a team player and veteran leader.

3. Ehadadi. Short and sweet: Sign him to a reasonably priced, short contract, see what he can do. If he can snatch boards, defend a little, score on putbacks and finish on drive and dishes from Conley and Mayo, I don't see a downside.

Trades? Unless it's a clear upgrade, I say we stand pat. As I've said elsewhere on this blog, the team needs stability more than anything right now. But that's just me. What do you think?

Post comments below . . .

To Trade or Not To Trade...That is the Question

Whether tis nobler in the mind
to suffer The slings and arrows
of outrageous records,
Or to take arms
against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing - end them?
Hamlet, Act III

Okay, William Shakespeare never wrote that exactly but the feeling expressed in Hamlet's soliloquy does have some relevance to today's Memphis Grizzlies. Almost no one believes that with the #5 and #28 picks the team can change the struggles that have beset this franchise since their last winning season. Is a trade up or down in the draft going to help shuffle things enough to change the outlook, if not the actual record, of the team?

What about the players currently on the team? Are they to be immune from the exorcism of the devils haunting the franchise? Are they the sole reason for the team's unbearable current state? They are the most convenient scapegoats but who should take the fall for the current state of the franchise? Did the current roster have anything to do with the carousel of coaches (Lowe, Brown, Fratello and Iavaroni not to mention Hollins and Barone) over the last 6+ seasons? Should the players shoulder the blame for the rather bizarre behavior and decisions of Jerry West? Not that this matters now because it appears something must be done beyond adding two or three more rookies (#5, #28 and Marc Gasol) to the mix. Trading is the most obvious remedy.

Devoutly to be wish'd. To lose, to sleep;
To sleep, perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep what dreams of trades may come
Hamlet, Act I

More paraphrasing but indeed what dreams may come from a draft day trade?

Memphis has declared they are going to rebuild with youth. Michael Heisley said the team wants to build around their core of Conley, Lowry, Crittenton, Gay and Warrick (upon further prodding he also said that Darko is in that mix). Heisley also said that this doesn't mean that these players are going to stay with the Grizzlies. They could be used as pieces in a deal to bring in someone else that furthers the growth of the team. This seems logical since three of those players are considered point guards. So Memphis will use these players as their building blocks but those blocks may not be in the final design of the team. Trading seems to be the simplest way to build with these players but not have all of them be a part of the future.

Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are reported to be attending the Grizzlies Draft Party on Thursday night. It would appear that the team is committed to keeping that duo together until one separates himself from the other. The problem is that those two players appear to be the most desirable pieces in a trade. There is a fine line here between clearly establishing one player as the starter and diminsihing the value of the other. If the team is committed to one player then trading the other before his value drops makes sense. I just have a hard time seeing the Grizzlies inviting both players to the draft party only to trade one of them that night. Surely the Grizzlies wouldn't make such a faux pas as to invite a player to the draft party only to trade him during the event. The Grizzlies can't be that thoughtless of a young man's feelings. Can they?

So does that make Javaris Crittenton the odd man out? Could the player that the Grizzlies wanted from the Lakers be gone fewer than 6 months later? It seems unlikely that the team would give up on the 19 yr old (he won't turn 20 until December 31st) that quickly. Of course, it seemed inconceivable that the Grizzlies would give up on the Conley-Gasol pairing after only 15 starts together too. Yet that is exactly what the team did on Jan 29th. So is anyone safe with this franchise?

Mike Miller just made a major contribution to St. Judes Children's Hospital. Doesn't that gesture imply that he is going to remain in the city for at least a little longer despite Heisley not mentioning him as a player that the team is going to build around? Maybe, Maybe not. No Grizzlies player has been rumored to be on the block more than Mike Miller. Of course, without a viable alternative to replace Mike Miller in the starting lineup after Juan Carlos Navarro signed with FC Barcelona it would be a long shot to suppose Miller is traded on draft night. Then again the opportunity to draft a Eric Gordon or Danillo Gallinari may make such a trade more plausible. Miller's salary is a tad expensive for what he brings to the court but doesn't the team need someone who can bring veteran leadership to the team?

Alas! poor Warrick. I knew him
a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy; he hath borne me on his back a thousand times; and now, how abhorred in my imagination it is!
Hamlet, Act V

Now I don't abhor the time Hakim has spent in Memphis but at 26 Warrick is on the cusp of youth on a rebuilding team. His trade value would seem high (and that appears to be the only reason the Grizzlies drafted him anyway). The Grizzlies have brought in twice as many big men as guards for workouts this summer. That is a message that can't be ignored.

What could Hakim, the dreaded tweener, bring on the open market? Draft picks involve a high risk already. Would a proven veteran capable of scoring in double figures on any night be enough or too much to move up a few spots in the lottery? Wouldn't someone like Hakim be worth a mid to late lottery pick by himself? Remember that Chicago swapped picks #2 and 4 with Portland and only received Victor Kryapa in exchange just two years ago. Could Hakim and the 28th pick move the Grizzlies into the lottery?

One thing is known. Memphis is looking to create some excitement around this draft. They want to be players and create a buzz. This should be a very exciting draft to watch for the Memphis Grizzlies and their fans. Trades involve uncertainty and risk but they also could be the type of activity that gets people excited about future prospects.

Tis now the very witching time of night,
When churchyards yawn and hell itself breathes out
players to this world: now could I drink hot blood,
And do such business, as the day
Would quake to look on.
Hamlet, Act III

Les Misérables - The Sequel

Seriously, I can not express how happy I am that this season is coming to an end. Losing over 110 games in two seasons drains the soul of even the most fanatical Grizz backer. When you add in the circus atmosphere that has accompanied this losing, it becomes even more difficult. I am truly looking forward to the off season, so I can recharge my (false?) hope for next season.

Fortunately this season has not been a complete waste. (1) The Grizzlies finally came to their senses and traded away Pau Gasol. Even if it came at the expense of being the joke of the NBA for a few weeks as Kobe led the Lakers on a destruction tour of the NBA. However, in the end this is the trade that truly starts our rebuilding. (2) Rudy Gay has emerged as a true offensive option. Although I still don't think he has the mentality of a championship level 1st option, he has exceeded my expectation after his lukewarm rookie season. I hope that the Grizzlies can get a player better than Gay to help him out. (3) The young guys are closing out the season playing hard and smart. It is a feather in the cap of Marc Iavaroni that this team continues to play hard on a nightly basis despite the rumors of him being fired and the lure of tanking. (4) Darko is slowly developing into a legit big man. Iavaroni might think about getting him even more minutes because the team seems to perform much better when he is on the court.

Luckily for the Grizzlies, the University of Memphis Tigers are deflecting attention away from this horrid season with their exciting run to the Final Four. Derrick Rose has emerged as a challenger to Kansas State's Michael Beasley as the #1 pick in the 2008 NBA draft. This should make it a nice little bridge from Final Four euphoria to the tempered thoughts of the Memphis Grizzlies potentially getting in position to draft Rose.

For the Grizzlies to have a chance at Derrick Rose we will have to overcome I seemingly snake bit lottery history and get the #1 or #2 pick in the NBA draft lottery. Expectations for this should be at an all time low after the Oden/Durant pain of 2007. In fact, I have not met one Grizzlies fan that has any expectation other than getting the worse possible pick we can get on lottery night. That is really sad.

Also it seems that the local ownership group has had their fill of dealing with Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley. They decided to leave about $50 million on the table and reduce their ownership stake instead of paying their portion of the losses and staying in business with Heico. For some Memphians, this is the ultimate doom and gloom scenario and the team's moving to another city is a inevitable conclusion. I don't think so. I also don't think Heisley is trying to run the team into the ground, I simply think he does not know what he is doing and is frustrated that when he hired the supposed best executive in NBA history (Jerry West), West never lifted the organization out of mediocrity. West left town with over $25 million of Heisley's money and the organization in the same exact shape he found it. Must be nice!

So, what does the future hold for the Memphis Grizzlies. I think it all depends on the lottery. Heisley needs something good to happen to his team so he can get excited again about it. Nobody buys an NBA team to have it be a bottom feeder. He wants to win. He especially wants to win more than the Chicago Bulls. Never under estimate the vanity of professional sports ownership. Heisley would like nothing better than to be able to invite his Chicago friends down to little old Memphis and watch his team play some damn good basketball. Right now, he is embarrassed and he is pouting. I expect Heisley to want to make a big splash that signals he is playing to win. I expect the team to close the season well enough to make the firing of Iavaroni unrealistic. The team will surpass last years win total and win close to the same amount of games(23) they were on pace to win(24) before giving away Gasol. In other words, the team gave him away and were basically the same after they adjusted. Go figure.

Links: Cleaning Out the Inbox (Quick Hit Edition)

Washington Post: Rudy Gay is On the Cusp.

Chance Harper (SBR Forum) on small market realities in Memphis and Milwaukee.

Round 7 of the MVP/ROY Blogger Rankings is up on CelticsBlog for your viewing pleasure. LeBron still has a stranglehold on the top spot, but there has been a shakeup after that. On a related note, the guys at Hardwood Paroxysm have been having a little back-and-forth with CelticsBlog and David Friedman (20 Second Timeout) about MVP voting practices today. Very entertaining.

Pete Pranica's latest blog post.

The Play in California and The Free Throw Line review the trades. Some interesting thoughts, even if I think a few are off-base.

Neil and Vicky took in a Grizzlies game on their travels. You can read about it on Travel Pod.

Ted Sevransky says the Grizzlies are the worst team in the NBA. Guess he doesn't get Miami Heat games in Canada.

Think Chris Wallace is the worst GM in the league after the Gasol trade? At least he's not the Sports Guy. Go read BrewHoop's take on having Bill Simmons offer to be Milwaukee's GM. (via Hardwood Paroxysm)

Blog/Website of the Day: 20 Greatest TV Show Intros

Mark Cuban Speaks the Truth

Count Dallas owner Mark Cuban among those NBA observers who don't mind the so-called madness going on in Memphis.

He just questions the method sometimes used by Griz owner Michael Heisley, who Cuban communicates with as a friend. Asked to elaborate on his critical comments regarding the Grizzlies' decision to unload Pau Gasol for essentially draft picks and salary-cap relief, Cuban reiterated that the Griz could have received more for the skilled 7-footer.

"I don't know who gave it to him, but Michael Heisley got bad information," Cuban said. "That's all I can say."

As for Heisley's decision to move toward youth and fiscal responsibility, Cuban offered no argument against the Grizzlies' mode of rebuilding."It's smart," Cuban said. "You go from never winning to winning some, and then it's not enough. So you realize that being in the middle is the worst place to be in the NBA. You can't get the big draft picks. The curse of the NBA is multiple years of 40-win teams. There's nothing you can really do with that.

"Donald Sterling (the Los Angeles Clippers owner) once told me that there are only so many generational players. The only way you're going to get generational players is by being a bad team. Cleveland was bad when they got LeBron (James). Portland was bad when they got Greg Oden. Miami was bad when they got Dwyane Wade. You've got to be bad and hope the ping pong balls fall your way. ... Memphis is a basketball town. The media will kill them over and over. But the ping pong balls fall the right way and, boom, you're back."

This appeared in the print version of The Commercial Appeal and it shows why Mark Cuban is perhaps the best owner in professional sports. He gets it. He understands that it takes a special player to build a foundation of competing in the NBA at the highest levels. Memphis simply has never had that "generational" type player on their team. In fact, it is the entire reason behind the Pau Gasol trade. Chris Wallace is trying to put the Memphis Grizzlies in position to get a generational type player via draft, trade, or free agency.

I always look back on that almost 2 year old article by Dennis Gallagher on 82Games.com titled Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team. He makes it easy to understand. It breaks down building a contender into a 3 step process. Remember I said easy to understand not easy to execute. Here it is again:

1. Acquire a championship superstar: Gallagher defines this as a player that was 1st team All NBA or 1st team All Defense (in the prior 4 seasons). It is not a secret that top level talent wins in the NBA. The notion that Detroit bucked the superstar trend is simply an under appreciation for the impact Ben Wallace had on the game defensively. He was Defensive Player of the Year 4 out 5 seasons. Acquiring a high level player is a must as every NBA champion has had a 1st Team All NBA or 1st Team All Defense type of player. So it is best that an NBA GM hedges his bets when starting the rebuilding process and acquire as many young players as possible with the potential to reach one of these teams and to make sure his team is in position to acquire one if they ever hit the open market.



2. Add a championship sidekick (or two): Every NBA champion has included a top 10 player or a top 10 defender as a sidekick and over half (57%) have included two players with previous All NBA or All Defense selection. With the way the Western Conference is stacking up, I think it is a safe bet that two will be the norm for a few years.


3. Make sure either the superstar or sidekick can defend: No team has won an NBA title without a top 10 quality defender. I think every Grizzlies fan can agree that defensive ability is essential to success and lack of it is a recipe for failure.

Is this the NBA gospel? Maybe not but I think it is very hard to argue with it. I think it is something to be considered this summer when GM Chris Wallace is making decisions. If the ultimate goal is to have a parade on Beale Street then somethings can't be ignored. Priority #1 has to be to getting a special offensive talent or a defensive presence this summer.

Coach Marc Iavaroni agrees. "We are going to make some changes and get some firepower," Iavaroni said. "That is what we wanted with the (salary cap) flexibility and that is why we feel confident moving forward. We know what we need or at least we are finding out more so." I think Iavaroni really wants to see if Rudy Gay has what it takes to get his game to the next level. The level in which he impacts the game. With just 27 games remaining, Gay has got to show he has the tenacity to really get after it. Preferably on both ends but either offense or defense would be sufficient.

The 2008 NBA draft allows us an opportunity to get a generational talent. This is not a sure thing as we saw in 2007. Usually there is one generational talent in a draft. A good draft has two and a great draft has three or more. The last great draft was in 2003 and unfortunately Stu Jackson traded our shot for Otis Thorpe. Since coming to Memphis there have been only ten generational level talents drafted in the first round: Yao Ming (2002), Amare Stoudemire (2002), LeBron James (2003), Carmelo Anthony (2003), Chris Bosh (2003), Dwayne Wade (2003), Dwight Howard (2004), Chris Paul (2005), Greg Oden (2007), and Kevin Durant (2007).

So it is not a matter of having a high lottery pick, most likely a team needs the #1 pick in the right draft for this route to work. The chances of getting a generational talent with a #3 or #4 pick is not good. However, the team can stock pile very good players in hopes of combining them to trade for a generational talent when they come on the market. In 2008, I am guessing that there is one generational talent in Michael Beasley. At best there is another one lurking like in the 2005 with Chris Paul but I doubt anyone predicts who that may be before the 2008-09 season begins.

The cap room Chris Wallace attained also must be used to attempt to bring in a generation talent. The good thing about free agency is that it is all on the Grizzlies staff to identify and convince the right player to take our money. Currently Philadelphia, Golden State(if Baron Davis opts out), the Clippers (if Elton Brand and Corey Maggette opt out), Miami (if Shawn Marion opts out), Sacramento (if Ron Artest opts out), and Washington (if Gilbert Arenas opts out) stand as our main competition for free agents. Once everything shakes out it will probably be only Memphis, Philly and Sacramento as the major free agency players.

The 2008 NBA Free Agent class is filled with young players that are 3 years or more away from hitting their prime. Josh Smith(22), Monta Ellis(22), Andis Biedrens(21), and Luol Deng(22) have all shown flashes of being able to be either great players or great defenders. It is a matter of projecting which players have the ability to blossom even further with an expanded role and more leadership responsibility. The Grizz have some assets to offer teams in a sign and trade for restricted free agents including the ability to provide a huge trade exception.

Needless to say, Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni have a busy off season ahead of them. It will be this off season that defines their stay in Memphis. If they make good decisions this summer than the Gasol trade will become a distant memory. However, draft unwisely or hold on to your cap space like a miser and it mights just be them in the FedEx Forum this fall...alone.

3 Games Away: Or Chris Wallace and the Finger

I know it is the All-Star Weekend and I could join nearly every blogger in the world in talking about the different celebrations but honestly I don't care about the All-Star game or the 3 pt Shooting contest or even the Slam Dunk Contest (heresy with Rudy Gay performing I know). I'm not even that interested in the Rookie-Sophomore game despite three Grizzlies playing in that.

I can see 5 Grizzlies playing live 41 times a year. Why should I care about a few more exhibitions?

What I am interested in today is 3 games. Not any three games in particular but the 3 games that separate the LA Lakers from the lottery.

What you say? Didn't Stephen A. Smith just proclaim the Lakers the class of the Western Conference? Didn't no less an expert than Gregg Popovich say that the trade of Gasol to the Lakers should have been blocked by a trade evaluation committee? How can I possibly think that the Lakers could drop into the lottery???

Well all of you pundits are getting the finger from Chris Wallace.

No, he is not making an obscene gesture at anyone. He is far too fine a man to do that (publicly at least). Instead Chris Wallace is giving people Kobe's finger. Kobe has a torn ligament in his right pinkie finger Thursday and the Lakers All-Star has decided not to undergo surgery that could sideline him for six weeks. Having the surgery would nearly guarantee a lottery trip for the Lakers so the news could be better, but an injured Kobe is far better for Memphis' chances than a healthy one.

Which brings Memphians back to the trade. When it was made people automatically assumed the Grizzlies were basically getting a 2nd rd player with the Lakers draft pick. Some despondent souls went so far as to assume that Memphis would make a terrible selection with that pick.

Oh ye of little faith!

A top 20 pick is just as good as a late lottery pick in this draft. Heck, this is the type of draft where the last player taken in the first round could be as good as the 5th player taken. If you don't believe that has happened before consider the 1985 draft. That was the first year the lottery was used and the #5 pick was SMU graduate John Koncack. Joe Kliene from Arkansas followed him up at #6. The last two first rd picks were AC Green and Terry Porter. Which two would you rather have had? Not enough? How about 19986 when the 5th pick was Kenny 'Sky' Walker from Kentucky. Portland with the last pick took Arvydas Sarbonis. In 1992 Minnesota took Christian Laettner and Denver took Laphonso Ellis. Golden State at 24 suffered with Latrell Sprewell. in 1993 it was Isaiah Rider at #5 vs Sam Cassell at 24.

Need more convincing? Maybe you want something more current and more painful for Grizzlies fans. How about Darko Milicic at #2 instead of Josh Howard at #29, Leandrho Barbosa at #28 or Travis Outlaw at #23? The Grizzlies took Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones at #16 and #20 respectively.

The point is that this draft is similiar to many drafts in that there is going to be good players, possibly great players, available late in the draft and the sooner a smart mind gets a chance to draft one the more likely it is he will make a smart pick.

Is Chris Wallace a great mind? He does have one strike against him by taking the job as GM of the Grizzlies. However, his track record implies that he does in fact know how to select players that will be successful in the NBA. More importantly he appears to know who won't be successful even more. There is an old story about a young Chris Wallace, at that point not employed in the NBA, going to a NBA GM and beggin him on his knees not to draft a certain player. The GM ignored him and now both the GM and the player are out of the NBA and Chris Wallace is. 1981 he started Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook that covered college players. That magazine became required reading among the movers and shakers of the NBA for the player evaluations. He was named by Sports Illustrated as one of the most influential members of college basketball media in 1991. His actual draft picks include such players as Paul Pierce (#10), Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups (#3), Joe Johnson (#10) and Mike Conley (#4).

He definitely has the resume.

So now Chris Wallace has the opportunity to show that the resume isn't just a piece of paper and the Lakers have a problem that may affect their standing in the Western Conference, not to mention the general mayhem he has caused in the conference that should benefit the younger teams in the not too distant future.

It may be Kobe's finger but don't be surprised to see Chris Wallace pointing it at some of his critics in the not too distant future.

Links: MVP/ROY Rankings, Rudy, New Coach, Rankings Report, Pranica, More Trade Fallout

Hardwood Paroxysm has Round 6 of the Blogger MVP/ROY Rankings up for your viewing pleasure. There are plenty of great comments, so be sure to head on over there.

USA Today's Oscar Dixon has a great column up about Rudy Gay with some great quotes from Rudy, Pau Gasol and Marc Iavaroni. They also provide this little nugget of information:

The 21-year-old leads the Grizzlies in scoring (19.9) and steals (1.5); he and Kobe Bryant are the only players in the NBA in the top 40 in dunks and three-pointers, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

That's an interesting stat, considering that many believe that Rudy's mid-range game is, in fact, his biggest strength right now. It appears that Rudy is developing into a very well-rounded player.

In a rare case of good news, Ron Tillery reports in today's Commercial Appeal that recent acquisition Aaron McKie is a player-coach in the truest sense.

McKie instantly gives the Griz someone who can instruct and relate to this generation of players, much like Damon Stoudamire did before he left for San Antonio. It's no coincidence that McKie took up residence in Stoudamire's old locker between second-year swingman Rudy Gay and rookie point guard Mike Conley.

That's something to consider a positive, as this team obviously needs some veteran leadership. Having McKie stick close to the two cornerstones of the franchise should benefit them in the long run.

Dime Magazine has followed suit with many recent power rankings in dropping the Grizzlies to the bottom of the barrel. Hard to blame them, given the current talent level of the team and the upcoming schedule.

Pete Pranica finds a silver lining that many others are looking to in the wake of the Gasol trade -- the resurrection of the New Orleans Hornets.

Tom Ziller (NBA Fanhouse) is tallying up the people that think Chris Wallace made a less-than-wise move in trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers......and the numbers keep piling up:

4. Chris Wallace's Christmas card list. First Gregg Popovich reamed Memphis for gift wrapping Pau Gasol for the Lakers. Next? Mark Cuban, of course, followed by Gilbert Arenas. I even heard John Salmons (John Salmons!) on radio ripping the deal.

Blog/Website of the Day: Rudy Gay All-Star Dunk Blog

Links: NBA Officiating, Gasol Trade Review, Team Names, Rudy Illustration

One of these days, the guys over at Hardwood Paroxysm are going to stop looking to us for answers. Until that happens, we're going to keep pulling answers out of our nether regions. This time around, they wanted to talk about NBA officiating. Well, that's one of our favorite subjects to vent our frustrations about, so we quite willingly obliged.

Chris Mannix (SI.com) thinks that the Memphis Grizzlies -- and Chris Wallace in particular -- might be a little in over their heads right now, given what they got in return for former franchise player Pau Gasol. Once you get past his biting sarcasm, it isn't hard to find some common ground to agree with him on, though.

Rooktopia has taken it upon themselves to rate the Western Conference's teams based solely upon their name. You'll be happy to know that while they only gave the Grizzlies 4/5, they do have a solution that would make them, along with 2 other teams, tops in the league.

Joel Kimmel has another fantastic illustration up on his blog -- this time of Rudy Gay in a representation of a dunk he'd like to see performed in the Dunk Contest.

Blog/Website of the Day: Basketbawful

Welcome back to Dunkyland!

When I got the phone call, I was sure that someone was just having some fun at my expense. "Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and two 1st round draft picks." My initial reaction was "hey -- those salaries don't work" (yeah, I know it is pathetic that I know the salary structures for 80% of the teams in league -- quit laughing), but then I was told that they had resigned Aaron McKie to make it work. "Isn't he with the Sixers now?" Yet another sign of the ridiculousness of this trade. The Lakers traded the Sixers assistant coach to the Grizzlies. You cannot make stuff like that up.

For the next 48 hours I felt.........numb. I couldn't even begin to comprehend what had happened, so I couldn't feel anything about the trade. Well, other than a tremendous feeling of being cursed with the worst timing in the history of blogging. However, in the last two days, I have read two phenomenal viewpoints of the trade that have made me see just what this trade really means for Memphis. The first one was Pete Pranica's post on Grizz Blogs. The second was Hardwood Paroxysm's account of the trade. Slowly, I began to see the sun peeking through the clouds.

So now I am left at a crossroads. On the one hand, the Gasol trade has left the Grizzlies with cap space for the upcoming offseason (estimated $10-15 million), an additional draft pick for a great talent evaluator in Chris Wallace to use and a young player with good potential in Javaris Crittenton. They will be able to rebuild this team from the ground up, using Mike Conley and Rudy Gay as the foundation, with Darko Milicic and Crittenton as key players. Then you factor in two more young players with potential in the draft this summer and the talent level of this team going forward should increase dramatically.

It sounds like they won't use their cap space this offseason, given that this isn't a particularly enticing unrestricted free agent crop to pair with a group of young athletic players, preferring to roll it over to the 2009 offseason, where there are a lot of attractive FA's of the "right age". Factor in another 18 months of growth/maturity for Conley/Gay/Darko and this team could improve by leaps and bounds. So there is reason to have hope for the future of this franchise, including a return to the postseason as soon as the 2009/10 season.

On the other hand, this move was obviously business first, basketball a distant second. Even though it is mostly being reported that Chris Wallace pitched the idea to owner Michael Heisley, this one has Heisley grimy little fingerprints all over it. Wallace has been in print and on the radio several times this season saying that he did not want an expiring contract to be the central piece in return for either Gasol or Mike Miller in a trade. Lo and behold, what did he say about the acquisition of Kwame Brown? "He was the biggest expiring deal we could get." Now, I'm familiar with GM speak and know it when I see it. This 180 degree turnaround did not seem like a case of GM speak. Rather, it seems more likely that it was a directive from Heisley to Wallace -- not the other way around.

If that is the case, then this trade was a salary dump, plain and simple. If this is nothing more than a way to lower the outstanding contracts on the team to make it easier for Heisley to either sell the team to an outside group or to force the local group of minority owners to meet his asking price, then Memphis fans have been duped and taken advantage of as pawns. Pawns who shelled out money for a team that they expected to be competitive this year, even if they weren't expecting a return to the playoffs. Now they get to watch a team that has 13 wins so far and probably won't match last year's total of 22 victories. Not only is that a hard pill to swallow, it is an even harder sell for the sales/marketing staff. As Geoff Calkins pointed out in his column Saturday, can you imagine what that sales call will be like? It won't be pretty, I can assure you. This team didn't draw well when they were making the postseason and actively trying to get better. How low will attendance drop now that the rest of this season is a foregone conclusion and next year won't be much better? When does the attendace clause of the team's lease actually go into effect? (Speaking of attendance, Mark Cuban says get off your butt and do something if your attendance sucks.)

So while I would love to go along with the idea that this was a move made with the team's best interests in mind, if I have learned one thing in life, it is that rich, powerful people usually get what they want. Michael Heisley is a billionaire, so he gets what he wants and then takes the rest. If the team resurrects itself over the next two or three seasons, then I'll accept that Heisley is not, in fact, the Anti-Christ. If he uses this move as leverage to sell the team to a group like the Brian Davis-led flunkies who only have enough money to buy the team and nothing more, then I'm starting a blog dedicated to trashing Heisley. Either way, only time will tell what is to come for this team.

Welcome back to Dunkyland!

Links: Conley at practice, Collins for Swift trade completed, Pete's Perspective, 20 Questions

According to Graham Kendrick, Mike Conley was at practice today and should play in tomorrow night's contest against the Milwaukee Bucks. That's good news as the team could really use his steadying influence right now.

The trade that sent Stromile Swift to the New Jersey Nets for F/C Jason Collins and cash considerations was completed today. Collins is known around the league as a solid defender, which has been one of the Grizzlies' major shortcomings this season.

Now that I'm over the shock of the Gasol trade and have begun to consider what it all means, I'll probably post something regarding my thoughts on it later in the week. You can be assured that when I do it will include a lot of references to this recent post from Pete Pranica.

Make sure you visit Beyond the Arc to read the 20 questions that Chris Herrington asks and answers regarding the trade and where the Grizzlies go from here.

Time for the Beanstalk to Grow - Reaction to the Pau Gasol trade

Wow! Who would have known that so soon after my call for action that Memphis Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace would finally listen to me. Ok, he didn't actually consult with me but I am sure he has been reading 3 Shades of Blue and unfortunately I did not include the Los Angeles Lakes in my Five Bags of Magic Beans article. However, this is the exact type trade I expected for Gasol. It is not a reflection of Gasol's talent, it is just where the NBA is right now in terms of economics. There was a very limited market for a player on the back end of an escalating MAX contract that cannot lead a team. Yes, Gasol will thrive in LA. Heck, the Lakers can plug him in and have the exact same things around him every Grizzlies fan has been wanting for 7 years (a big bruising center and one of the best closers in NBA history). However, the Grizzlies were going nowhere with Gasol and his contract on the roster. Not enough flexibility financially, indifference in the fanbase, and just not enough talent to surround Gasol.

Now what do we make of the haul the Grizzlies got from the Lakers. There is one prize...Javaris Crittenton or J. Crit. For a team that wants to play uptempo, Crittenton is almost the perfect combo guard. He has size (6'4.75 in shoes at the predraft camp), he is athletic, he attacks the basket, and can switch deftly between point guard and shooting guard both offensively and defensively. Think Monta Ellis of Golden State plus 2 inches and 20 pounds without losing the quickness. If he would have stayed another year in college, he would have easily been a lottery pick this year. Do you think national reaction to this trade would have been different if we had gotten Ellis, two 1st round picks, Marc Gasol and MAX cap space? In Chris Wallace's new game, three men enter-two men leave, I expect J. Crit to beat out Lowry mainly due to his size and ability to come off the bench and play next to Conley.

The two draft picks and the draft rights to Marc Gasol will be used as sweetner. Either to get someone to take somebody off our roster (Collins, Brian Cardinal) or to get someone to give us their restricted free agent that they do not want to pay. At worst they will be dice rolls in the draft. Maybe Chris Wallace can catch "lightning in a bottle" at the end of the 1st round.

There is still work to be done obviously. I think they need to complete the clean sweep and get Mike Miller out of the locker room. This not to see he is a bad influence, a malcontent, or a bad player but the young guys need to be able to establish a pecking order going into the offseason. Even though it might not be feasible into the offseason, I think Mike Miller has very good value due to his relatively modest contract and his shooting stroke. However, I don't think Miller is as much of of "got to get rid of" as Pau Gasol.

Now it is time for the Grizzlies to see exactly what they have in Rudy Gay. Is he Corey Maggette, Antawn Jamison, or Paul Pierce? Heck, will he exceed expectations and become an All NBA type of player? Gay definitely has the tools to become a bonafide super star. However, the question is does he have the mentality to lead the Grizzlies to team success? The former we got from Pau Gasol, the latter is what we are looking for to take this franchise to the next level.

It is now the turning point for the Grizzlies and the decisions made in the next 6 months will be critical to this team finally becoming a contender. There is no room for mistakes. We must get the best player available with our draft pick, we need to get some type of future rotation player with the Lakers 1st rounder, we must get an impact player with our cap space, and we must either keep Mike Miller or get a valuable player in trade.

I will go out and say that this season will continue as expected and we will end up with around 24 wins. I expect us to get to the level we thought we would be at this season, next season. I am predicting about 35 wins even if we do not use our cap space for next season. I expect us to get back to the playoffs in 2010 and to be as good or better than the Lakers the following season before Pau Gasol's contract expires.

More on the Gasol-Gasol Trade

From Zack


Just thought I'd put up some more reaction to the Gasol-Lakers trade.

-- I would have liked to seen one (or both) of these modifications to the trade:

1. Include Ronnie Turiaf.
2. Include Brian Cardinal and then make Aaron McKie's 1 year sign/trade contract worth more.

-- The big question(s). Will more or less people attend Grizzlies games for the rest of the year? Will more or less people buy/renew their season tickets in the offseason?

-- It looks like Rudy and Hak will be playing all the available minutes at the PF spot from now on. Of course, Rudy will see some time at the 3 too, but I don't see anyone outside of Hak playing at the 4 when Rudy isn't.

-- I feel particularly cursed with Darko and Kwame on the same team. The first time they are both on the court on the same time - which i don't think will happen much, see above - lightning might just strike the arena down. The Basketball Gods will not look favorably upon this. This also explains the urgency to trade Stro as soon as possible. Stro, Darko, and Kwame together would be too much for the basketball universe to survive through.

-- We have a traffic jam of elite PG prospects. That is of course if Javaris Crittenton isn't also a SG. My impression so far this season was that he would be a good SG too. Either way, Wallace implied one of the three would be used as a trade asset later on down the road to improve another spot. Lowry, the lesser player of the three, is the obvious one to go (Conley is a better passer, Javaris is a better shooter and taller and can play SG). However the counterpoint to trading Lowry is that he has the lowest trade value of the three as well. I mean, in a trade by himself, how is someone like a Rodney Carney going to help us. Our 2008 Lakers pick could get us a player as good or better than someone Lowry could be traded for straight up. So the other avenue is as sweetener in a bigger trade. Great, then we can brag that trading Pau helped us use Lowry as a sweetener'. Anyway, I think this also makes it less likely we re-sign Navarro next year, and something in me sees a possible Sasha Pavlovich saga occurring next year with JC.

-- That trade for Rudy is looking more and more important to this franchise. Would anyone argue that we got more in return for Shane than we did for Pau?

-- Time for Rudy step up and seize control of the team.

-- I will admit I am pretty excited to watch Jarvaris Crittenton play.

-- I was wrong about Pau and Navarro being handcuffed. I was also wrong about Wallace waiting until the offseason to trade Pau.

-- Marc Gasol? Really? Marc Gasol?

-- Looks like we need to get MemphisX to devote more time to informing us about the upcoming draft class. No reason to stop at the top 10 anymore. We need to know about the top 30 picks.

-- Time to watch those inverted standings!

-- Wallace acknowledged (or should that be admitted?) to changing his mind about only getting expiring contracts in return to Pau. I'm sure the obvious conclusion is that Heisley forced that change of heart, but I'm not so sure. Interesting turn of events, nonetheless. Check back here all weekend long for more Gasol commentary.

Some random links about the trade

Basketball Prospectus
ESPN - Marc Stein
Fox - Rosen
SI - Burns
SI - Scouts Take
CBS - Mejia
Herrington Quick Press Conference Notes (more analysis promised to be coming later...looking forward to it)
Wallace on Chris Vernon Show (audio)
Verno's Original Cryptic Post from Last Night
Verno's Full Trade Details
Tillery's Original Breaking News of Deal
Tillery's Follow-up
AOL Fanhouse Roundtable
AOL Fanhouse on the Big Summer for the Griz
AOL Fanhouse on Original Gasol News
AOL Fanhouse on Verno's Post
Kelly Dwyer on Trade
NBA.com on the Trade (and with a link back to us)
Forum Blue and Gold
Marcus Camby on Trade
RealGM Grades the Trade

Gasol vs. Kwame Brown + 2 in Stats

The franchise players is gone!  Here is what the Grizz got in return!
See full stats onGriz Board here.

Kwame Brown      #54   Center
									2007-08 Statistics
									PPG    5.7
									RPG    5.70
									APG    1.2
									EFF     + 8.74
									Born: Mar 10, 1982
									Height:  6-11 / 2,11
									Weight:  270 lbs. / 122,5 kg.
									High Sch: Glynn Academy (GA)
									Years Pro: 6
Career Season Averages
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
07-08	23	14	22.1	0.515	0.000	0.406	1.3	4.3	5.7	1.2	0.7	0.8	1.61	2.50	5.7
Car	389	185	24.1	0.484	0.125	0.602	1.9	3.8	5.7	1.1	0.6	0.7	1.47	2.30	7.6

 

Pau Gasol      #16     Forward - Center
									2007-08 Statistics
									PPG     18.9
									RPG     8.80
									APG    3.0
									EFF     + 22.33
									Born: Jul 6, 1980
									Height:  7-0 / 2,13
									Weight:  260 lbs. / 117,9 kg.
									From: Spain
									Years Pro: 6
Career Season Averages
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
07-08	39	39	36.7	0.501	0.267	0.819	2.4	6.4	8.8	3.0	0.4	1.4	2.05	2.20	18.9
Car	476	470	35.5	0.509	0.230	0.730	2.5	6.1	8.6	3.1	0.5	1.8	2.60	2.40	18.8

                 +

Javaris Crittenton    #1   Guard

2007-08 Statistics

PPG     3.3

RPG     1.00

APG    0.8

EFF     + 2.73

Born: Dec 31, 1987

Height:   6-5 / 1,96

Weight:   200 lbs. / 90,7 kg.

College: Georgia Tech

Years Pro: Rookie

Career Season Averages

Yr

G

GS

MPG

FG%

3P%

FT%

OFF

DEF

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

TO

PF

PPG

07-08

22

0

7.8

0.491

0.333

0.679

0.3

0.6

1.0

0.8

0.3

0.0

1.00

0.50

3.3

Aaron McKie      #2   Guard
									2007-08 Statistics
									PPG     0.0
									RPG     0.0
									APG    0.0
									EFF     + ?
									Born: Oct 2, 1972
									Height:   6-5 / 1,96
									Weight:   209 lbs. / 94,8 kg.
									College: Temple
									Years Pro: 13
Career Season Averages
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
05-06	1	0	8.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0
Car	75	26	28.5	0.437	0.385	0.801	0.6	3.0	3.6	3.2	1.1	0.2	1.35	2.50	9.5