Previewing the Power Forwards

By Joshua Coleman

With the Point Guards, there appears to be a defined rotation. For the Small Forwards, there is The Man and everyone else. Even for the Shooting Guards, we have a good idea of who is going to play and how much. But for the Power Forwards...the phrase "total crapshoot" comes to mind.

Hakim Warrick is the presumed starter, Darrell Arthur is the rookie, Antoine Walker is the mercurial veteran in a contract year and Darko Milicic is the enigma. Marc Iavaroni included Rudy Gay in that group when we interviewed him, but after this comment that Chris Herrington posted, I'm not very confident that we'll see #22 manning the 4 anytime soon:

“We’ve got a lot of [power] forwards on this team, and I’ve told them: If I have to play your position, something is wrong.”

Really, the PF position is one of the glass being both half full and half empty. Guys are either good on offense (Warrick and Walker) or on defense (Darko) or talented, but completely unproven and inexperienced (Arthur). No one appears to be a complete package in the mold of presumed starters Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. That means that any of those four players could garner significant playing time this season. That is both intriguing and maddening at the same time.

The Players:

Hakim Warrick - The Syracuse product is well known by Grizzlies fans as he enters the 4th year of his career. He has proven to be a skilled scorer with his solid mid-range game and impressive dunking ability. He's an average rebounder for his size, nabbing 7 boards a game as a starter last year and has extended his range out to 18 feet on his jumper. The areas of his game that prevent Hak from being a surefire starter in the NBA are his complete lack of passing skills and his poor defense. I know that I get accused of picking on him from time to time, but Javaris Crittenton played 61% fewer minutes than Hak last year (678 total minutes to 1754 minutes) and Critt only fell two assists shy of matching Warrick's total for the year, which was 53. I understand that PF's aren't expected to pass the ball as much as guards, but most starters at least average a dime per game. Even Darko Milicic averaged a higher number than that while playing with an injured thumb the majority of the season. For Hakim to remain a starter under the new defensive-minded coaching staff, he's going to have to start doing more than just scoring and rebounding.

Darrell Arthur - In assessing Arthur's game, he actually reminds me quite a bit of the aforementioned Hakim Warrick. An athletic forward who excels from mid-range and might not be quite big enough to bang with the more physical post players in the league. The one thing that separates him from Warrick so far is his shot-blocking, as he has averaged better than one per game through two years at Kansas. Enough has already been written and said about his blunder at the Rookie Transition program, so I won't waste any more in this space. I don't see DA making a big impact this year, but he might show enough to make a case as the future starting PF, which could make Hak trade bait by January/February.

Antoine Walker - What is there left to say about 'Toine at this point? He's a good rebounder and he loves to shoot -- especially from the perimeter. Next!

Ok, just kidding. There are two things that make me think that Walker could actually be an asset this year: money and more money. That's right, the Master of the Shimmy will make $9 million this year and knows that there won't be any teams that will pick up his option for next season, so he's basically in a contract year. That means that he will give more than the 60% effort (since I'm being generous) he gave the T'Pups last year. If that's the case, then he could turn out to be a valuable trade piece at the deadline. His range and his rebounding ability will also be assets if he still has anything left in the tank. The question is still what does he have left in the tank.

Darko Milicic - Finally, a power forward with some power in his game. If there is one thing I know about Darko from last year, it is this: He is better than he exhibited after he injured his thumb. I know that he will never be the player that Joe Dumars (and Chad Ford, God bless him) envisioned when he was selected #2 overall, but I definitely think that he can be a solid rotational player for a playoff contender. Last year he displayed the ability to be an effective defender, especially against low post titans like Tim Duncan and Yao Ming. In fact, I haven't seen anyone frustrate Duncan so much since Rasheed Wallace got inside his head during the first part of the 2005 Finals. Fans of the Mad Serbian have told me repeatedly that Darko is best utilized as a PF. It appears that we will now see how true that is. The Dark One will need to find something other than the lefty hook shot in his arsenal if he plans on surviving the season without being mercilessly booed. Shaving off the sparse mustache he sported for much of last year wouldn't hurt either.

CONCLUSION: I don't know if Warrick or Walker will be the starter at the beginning of the season, or if Darko will be the closer. Darrell Arthur showed lottery level talent in college, but still fell all the way to #28 in the draft for unexplained reasons. This motley crew undoubtedly makes up the weakest position for the Grizzlies this year, but if all of them will commit to defense and rebounding, then two of them might survive until training camp next year. In any case, I don't believe that any of them will enter this season with preconceived notions about how much playing time they will be given, nor should they. This position is in need of serious help as the Grizzlies move forward.

Previewing the Small Forwards

by Chip Crain

Yesterday we tackled the position with the most competition and controversy swirling around it -- the Point Guards. Today we move to the one position where there is absolutely no argument about who will be starting and garnering the highest share of playing time -- Small Forward.

Why is this blog titled Previewing the Small Forwards? Shouldn't it be Previewing the Small Forward? Like in singular not plural? I mean does anyone feel the Grizzlies have a 2nd Small Forward on the team?

That question sums up the issue at small forward on the Grizzlies. When Mike Miller was sent to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo, not only did Memphis sacrifice their starting SG, but also their backup SF. Mayo can do a lot of things, but playing the 3 isn't likely to be one of them.

So Memphis has a player capable of being a star in this league but nothing behind him worth mentioning (although I will mention the candidates later anyway). The best case scenario for the Grizzlies is Rudy to average 38-40 mpg and make the next step forward along the path to becoming a major player in this league. The worst case scenario is an early season injury that prevents him from playing most of the year.

Please pretend I never even wrote that last sentence.

The Players:

Rudy Gay - What more needs to be said about the best player left on the Grizzlies team after the purge that began in January? Rudy can do it all. He can score 20 ppg, he can run, he can jump over any player in the league and still has legitimate three point range on his shot. What hasn't Rudy shown he can do? Well ball control has always been a problem for Rudy. He has freakishly long arms that make it difficult to prevent smaller players from harassing his dribble. He has been suspect on defense but that could easily be more the result of questionable coaching since he seems to have the fundamentals down. His rebounding is weak for a small forward. Finally passing is a weakness in Rudy's game. It has been argued that there weren't many other options for Rudy to pass to last year but he did have other options. At least compared to this season. Rudy has become the focal point for defenses to stop. His passing has to improve to really achieve the greatness predicted for him. Great players improve those around him. The easiest way to accomplish that is to share the rock with your open teammates.

Quinton Ross - Quinton Ross was signed to a last second contract with the Grizzlies apparently to provide Rudy Gay at least minimal minutes of rest this year. Quinton has the reputation of being a defensive specialist on the perimeter. He can and has guarded everyone from Manu Ginobili to Allen Iverson to Tony Parker and has had success against all of them. Ross could see minutes as shooting guard as well but that is unlikely with the logjam of players available for Iavaroni. If Ross plays well then possibly that would give the Grizzlies more options in playing Rudy Gay at PF however.

Greg Buckner - If there is a player on this team that will become best friends with Kevin O'Neill it should be Greg Buckner. He is the epitome of a team player. Buckner is the type of player other players don't enjoy facing up against. He's scrappy and tough and can play defense. The problem with Buckner has always been the other side of the court. The 9 year veteran out of Clemson has never cracked 7 ppg and in today's game that simply isn't good enough. The days of the one dimensional player are gone. In limited minutes Buckner may be able to get by as strictly a defensive specialist but at 6-4 he will struggle in that role against taller SF's in the league. Buckner's main contribution may come on the practice court as he shows the young players what it takes in effort to make it in this league. Veteran leadership is needed on this team and possibly Buckner could be the guy to provide it.

Marko Jaric - I know. I put Marko down as a possibility at every position but I swear I am stopping now. At least I hope I am stopping now because this is about as far as I can go with Jaric. At 6-7 Marko has the size to compete with backup SF's in the league and with his 3 pt shooting and passing ability he could really open up lanes for the slashers and big men on the team. He won't ever be a physical player however so you can forget banging underneath or grabbing rebounds as skills he brings to the position. His foot speed is a liability in the backcourt but is adequate for the SF position as well.

Antoine Walker - Okay. Stop laughing. I realize that the Shimmy Shaker is 31 and hasn't played the 3 spot adequately since his Celtic days and even then was questionable as a 3 but we are only talking about 10-12 minutes most nights and against backup players. Walker can give people fits in that time frame. He has 3 pt range and can rebound extremely well. Sure his foot speed is weak but are there many players coming off the bench in the NBA that won't have just as much trouble stopping Toine as Toine will have stopping them? Memphis won't be running with Walker at the 3 very often but that isn't all bad with the half-court scorers the team possesses. When motivated Walker has the type of personality that can motivate teammates to play better and Walker has millions of reasons to be motivated this season. Expiring contracts can have that type of effect on players.

CONCLUSION: It really isn't that difficult to see what the Grizzlies need this season from Rudy. He has to lead the team in scoring and he has to be one of two players to lead the team in minutes played for the season. It would be great for the team if Rudy also raised his rebounding number to 6+ a game and his assists went up to about 3 a game. Neither of these numbers is unreasonable by the way. If Rudy goes down to injury, even for a few weeks, there is nothing the Grizzlies could do to replace his production. Imagine if the Cavs lost LeBron. He's that important to this team. The big difference for the future is that unlike the Cavs the cupboard isn't empty behind Rudy for long. Mayo, Conley and the rest of the baby Grizzlies will come to Rudy's rescue very soon. I just don't believe it will be this year.

About that Zach for Darko/Marko Deal . . .

by Lee Eric Smith

Lots of linkety-links, mostly from NY Media . . .

Newsday: Darko would welcome a trade.
TheKnicksBlog: Grizz want a first rounder.
RealGM Message Boards (via translation): Darko's "99 percent sure" he'll be a Knick by Friday.
Newsday Blog: Zach expects to be with Grizzlies this fall.

I know we're just Memphis, smallest NBA market, dealing with NY, the NBA's Biggest, but all I keep hearing about is why NY wants to unload Zach. . . . kind of an addition by subtraction thing.

What I haven't heard is: Why are we doing this trade?

I get it, Zach is a veteran 20-10 guy, a complete bull in the post, and we need somebody we can throw the ball to when the game slows down. And maybe that's all that needs to be said. But somehow, that doesn't seem like enough.

Upgrade? Look at it this way: NBA analysts all over the net are considering Darko a mild UPGRADE in New York, or at least a better fit. Now think about how the consensus on Darko is that he's a bust, and maybe you understand my concern. Why would Donnie Walsh trade a proven 20-10 guy for a promising, but still unproven Darko? Who's really getting fleeced here?

If Zach Don't Fit in NY: Given that Iavaroni wants to run just as much as D'Antoni in NY, and Z-Bo "doesn't fit" in D'Antoni's system, it begs the question of how Z would fit in Memphis.

Defense. Zach's not known for it; Kevin O'Neill will DEMAND IT. If we're trying to IMPROVE defense, why trade our best shot blocker? And do you think there would be chaos in the locker room if O'Neill jumped down Z-Bo's throat for missing an assignment? What would that do to chemistry? Would Zach run over Iavaroni?

What do we already have? Granted Hak is skinny and 'Toine is older, but Hak put up respectable numbers at the 4 in about 23 minutes, as did 'Toine in 19. I'm not saying that either of them is as good as Zach, but together, their production could conceivably add up to Z-Bo's -- without giving up an improving big man in Darko. Besides, if neither Zach nor Hak (hey, a rhyme) are going to play defense at the 4, I'd rather go with the young gun, who probably fits better with our running, swarming style (I hope . . . for both the style and Hak's fit).

The Knucklehead Factor. It's been said that both Zach and 'Toine can be knuckleheads. If that's true, in my mind, the tie goes to the one with the ring: Antoine Walker. He won a championship with Miami in 2006, and has more playoff wins than Zach. Plus, he's adapting to his now-and-future role as an aging player: backup to the younger players -- Hak and Darrell.

Paper. Ah yes, the money. Z-Bo's contract is the same as Pau's was, even expires at the same time (I think). Granted Z is tougher and meaner than Pau, no question, but I'm not sure how he fits the 3YP.

Proposed deal makes SOME basketball sense, little financial sense (unless they hold out for the draft pick), and almost NO "chemistry" sense. . . . to me, anyway. So . . .

Why are we doing this again?

If you got answers, please explain below . . .

Because I'm Just Crazy Enough To Think It Could Work

Most of the news surrounding the Grizzlies right now is about Darrell Arthur's mistake in a hotel room or the possibility of Zach Randolph donning Beale Street Blue this season. I think that we've covered the first one pretty well, and I don't even want to think about the second one. But the potential Randolph deal did get me to thinking about another issue facing the Grizzlies. If they deal Darko & Marko to NYC, then the Grizzlies have 2 rookie C's, 4 PF's and still no backup SF (unless Greg Buckner plays out of position). That will also mean that the Grizzlies go from 13 players under contract down to 12. That opens up some possibilities.

I thought about moving Antoine Walker over to backup SF, given that he has played that position quite a lot over his career. But even then, the team will still have to sign at least one more player -- probably two. Obviously, one of those players will have to be a veteran center, given that Marc Gasol and Hamed Haddadi have played a combined ZERO minutes in the NBA so far. Any number of minimum contract stiffs could fill the bill of being the backup center, so I'm not too concerned about who they sign for that spot. But what about that other potential signing? Who should they take there?

The depth chart would look something like this if that trade took place:

PG - Conley, Lowry
SG - Mayo, Crittenton, Buckner
SF - Gay, Walker
PF - Randolph, Warrick, Arthur
C - Gasol, Haddadi, Token Stiff

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm comfortable that our PG spot is fine, given that Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt all have played that position in their recent careers. I'd love to use that last spot to shore up the SG/SF positions though. This is especially true if 'Toine comes in less than 100% motivated this season. But who could we sign for a low level contract (a given with this regime) that could actually contribute if called upon? I know of a guy that's sitting out there in free agency, just waiting for his phone to ring. A player who is already familiar with the nuances of Memphis.

You know him, you love him, so let's welcome him back to the Bluff City..........Mister Bonzi Wells!


Before you start sputtering about his past with the Grizzlies, hear me out. His play on the court was rarely ever an issue -- his conflicts with the head coach (Mike Fratello) were a problem. No more Czar = no more problem. He was a fan favorite and Heisley absolutely loved the guy while he was here. He can play both swingman positions and is a veteran who can contribute, and could even start if called upon. People want a guy who won't back down, plays with heart and wants to win every single night? Here's your guy. Am I worried about having Bonzi, Zach and 'Toine in the same locker room with all these young, impressionable players? I'm scared to death of it. But if we're going to bring Z-Bo in, then why not go all out and find another guy who is long on talent and has a questionable head? Especially if that guy might bring a few more fans back to the FedEx Forum who think of him fondly.

The contract that he signed with Houston two years ago was for 2 years and $4.5 million. Anyone else think that kind of deal would fit in with the fiscally responsible Three Year Plan? Yeah, me too. Let's be honest - Zach Randolph isn't going to bring in more fans than having Adriana Lima in the stands would have. But bringing back Bonzi might -- especially if it rekindles memories of postseasons trips in the minds of fans who are looking for something to believe in.


Bring. Back. Bonzi.

Grizzly 52 Pick-Up

1. Darko, pick up an anger management book. Learn to harness your temper, unlike the Serbia-Greece postgame incident, and put it towards your play on the court.
2. Coach, pick up your pride after last season. Don't listen to those who blasted you, you're a rookie head coach. I've got the faith. There is no I in team, but I want I on the sidelines.
3. Conley, pick up the weights. I heard you have, but pick them up again. And again. Repeat.
4. Hakim, pick up the weights. Ditto the rest of numero tres for you.
5. Lowry, pick up the fact that when you drive through the lane, you need to be a bit more controlled. I love your bulldog-like tenacity, but a little more controlled chaos would be beneficial to the team's overall game.
6. Rudy, pick up a scouting report on yourself. You are a STUD, my man. Teams adjust their gameplans to YOU. Put this team on your shoulders and become the star I believe you can be, the star some have already annointed you, and the star some think you can never be.
7. 'Toine, pick up a health and fitness book, report to camp in shape, and hopefully you can get some playing time. I mean, you do have a ring that isn't breaded with an onion inside of it, so I believe you've still got game. Let's see it, because I don't want us to have to spend our "capspace" bolstering our bench...so you can sit on it without breaking it.
8. OJ, pick up some more bowties for press conferences and post-game reports. GQ.
9. Marc, pick up a mirror. Then you will realize you look like the spawn of Mike Miller and your brother. Of course, if you have a hybrid game of Mike Miller and your brother, then you are going to be worth every bit of your money and then another of your salary on top of that.
10. Marko, pick up a nice dress for Adriana to wear for opening night. That can be your contribution to the team and the fans.
11. Greg, pick up a clipboard. You're going to be a player-coach this season anyway. maybe occasionally spelling Rudy at the 3.
12. Darrell, pick up a head full of steam and barrel through the post using your speed at the 4. I'd like to see you start at the 4, but you will likely have to back up Hakim, so make your minutes count. Use your advantages.
13. Hakim, pick up your dribble after having the ball for a few seconds, then pass. I hate watching you dribble almost as much as I hated watching OJ Mayo play PG in Summer League.
14. Marc, pick up rebounds. That IS why we signed you, or it should have been. We never can seem to rebound worth spit.
15. Kevin O'Neill, pick up Darko's anger management book after he is finished reading it. Turn that book into your Bible.
16. Michael Heisley, pick up the tab on some players, please. Capspace, Shmapspace. You want a winner, let's build one.
17. OJ, pick up games with high profile players = good thing. It gets your name out there, gets the word around that you are the real deal, makes you better, which in turn makes us look good as well.
18. People in the Advertising Dept, pick up on the fact that some of this just isn't cutting it. The "Hello Mayo" poster? Absolutely gorgeous. Where are our billboards, our bus signs, our commercials...something with pizzazz, flash, flair..."just like what the Grizz are going to bring this season."
19. Casey, pick up my car from valet out front. It's the Crossfire, black. Here's three dollars. The first three you made all night.
20. Critt, pick up the ball when youre open from the 3 point line, and jack it like a TV from a New Orleans store display. You, along with Toine, Rudy, Mayo and maybe Jaric are our only credible three-point shooters. Man, losing Mike in that aspect hurts.
21. Coach, pick up your clipboard and draw up some plays this season. Please, no more high-post handoff predictability.
22. Conley, pick up the speed more, if possible. Not because you're doing anything wrong, but because I'd just like to see how fast you really are. Top 5 in the L, in my personal opinion.
23. Kevin O'Neill, pick up some throat lozenges for after the game. I have a feeling you will need them.
24. Rudy, pick up the other team's players (and possibly our own) jaws after you blow past them for a rim-rattling, earth-shattering, mind-altering dunk.
25. Hakim, pick up a pair of clippers and shave that soul patch if you aren't going to go full beard on us. It's all-in or fold, buddy.
26. Darko, pick up your head if you don't make the first shot. It's not the end of the world, get your head back in the game. I'm tired of seeing your first shot not fall and then watch you get your confidence down the rest of the game and it affect your play. Go hard every minute.
27. Darrell, pick up a new hairstyle or something, anything but a headband. If Hak takes my advice and shaves the soul patch, I will have no chance of distinguishing you two lanky post players with headbands and no facial hair from all the way up in my section. Wait...you're the one who can play defense, right?
28. Hak, pick up a defensive scheme once in a while. Wait...no dont...then it would go back to you two being undistinguishable again...noooo....
29. Conley, pick up a Ja Rule cd cover. It's going to be like looking into a mirror for you, seriously.
30. Anyone, pick up a Downtowner magazine or an RSVP Memphis mag so we can stuff it down Phil Jackson's throat the next time he wants to say our downtown looks like Dresden.
31. Marc, pick up a laptop or anything with internet access and read the things that Memphis fans have said about your brother. Learn from it. Play the exact opposite.
32. Lowry, pick up some Air Jordans or some Nikes with heels. 6'0 my left foot. I'm 6 foot tall, and I was taller than you. Can you imagine Lowry with height on him? Man. Those "Trade Conley" advocates might get a vote from this "independent" on that front.
33. Rudy, pick up your teammates when they get down, and get on em when they mess up. That's what a leader of a team does.
34. Michael Heisley, pick up this team and move it, and you will have an entire city chasing you up to Chicago. You don't want that. Crime is already bad enough in Chicago this year without adding angry Memphians in the mix.
35. To Whom It May Concern, pick up the initiative I propose for opening night. The National Anthem shouldnt be done in person, we should all stand while the video of Isaac Hayes singing the Anthem at a Grizzlies game plays over the jumbotron, followed by a moment of silence for a Memphis Soul Icon. It'd be a classy move.
36. Coach, pick up your players and shake them from time to time. Don't make O'Neill do it every time. You can still be the nice guy...you can be the nice father with a stern hand.
37. Critt, pick up your speed. If we do trade Conley, or Lowry, you become the backup PG. If we are going to in fact be a running system, we're going to need speed. If we lose Conley the Ferarri, or Lowry the bulldog, we need speed and toughness at the point. You can be J-Critt the Challenger R/T. Speed and muscle. Speaking of that...
38. Critt, pick up the weights after Conley and Hak are done with them.
39. Darrell, I'll say it again, pick up a distinguishable characteristic. You are similar to the generic "Create-a-Player" on NBA Live 09. Grow some braids, dye your hair like the Rodman Rainbow, change your name to "Cero Cero" a la Chad Johnson...something.
40. Lowry, pick up the foul that ISNT an offensive one when you run into the post.
41. OJ, pick up a local newspaper. There is a buzz for you being here in the M. Take that, seize it, and you and Rudy become a two-headed monster. Maybe one day, the two of you will be ranked on a Dynamic Duo list.
42. Marc, pick up and absorb everything you learned from FIBA, the Olympics, and even at Lausanne. Apply it on the court here, and you will begin to step out of your brother's shadow. Not here, of course. You can drive through Memphis and see tomatoes and arrows thrown at the ground because a shadow that looked like Pau was there at one time.
43. Marko, pick up a GQ magazine, flip past that "Mayo Brings Back the Bowtie" article and find you some fashion tips. That way you can look fly on the bench. I kid, I kid. Not every game.
44. 'Toine, pick up the guts to say No to the Paula Deen Buffet. I know its right past the state line, but resist...RESIST!
45. Michael Heisley, pick up the WSJ and see if we have a trade embargo with Iran. Maybe if we dont, we can explore trade options for Hadadi and expiring contracts for, you know, capspace.
46. Hak, pick up some fattening food. I should have listed that first, but eat Eat EAT before you pick up the weights. Otherwise you will turn into a human strand of sinew, muscle and bone from working out. Sorry for not clarifying. Eat, then work out.
47. Darko, pick up the English language better. That way, if you do go into another tirade, I will be able to understand it without subtitles, and it will give me great entertainment.
48. Scouting team, pick up a report on Blake Griffin. If we have a terrible season, and we still have no answer at the 4 spot, tell the appropriate people to do everything they can to ensure that we get him.
49. Sportswriters and Analysts, pick up on the fact that the Grizzlies ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE. You can stop with your X-Files conspiracy theories. It isn't going to happen. Las Vegas doesn't have grizzlies, and they aren't going to have ours either.
50. OJ, pick up Rudy before one of your pickup games. Do a little two on two. It will establish chemistry with our duo, and get both of you some great experience in the process. The only thing better than it helping you, is if it helps both of you.
51. Fans, pick up your tickets for the entire season or just a game, whatever you can do. Support the NBA in Memphis.
52. And lastly, Anyone, pick up the habit of being a Grizzly fan.

Rumors Cooking . . .

Ron Tillery is blogging over at the Memphis Edge about potential moves for our boys in blue. Most of it involves one or both of the following:

• Trading Mike Conley to Portland for Travis Outlaw and spare parts (Tillery says it's a bad idea, and I agree):

If that’s the case, the Griz would need more than Outlaw in return. But I don’t believe trading Conley is a wise move. Trading Conley would put the Griz back at square one, again searching for a dynamic point guard to compensate for the loss of the GOOD Jason Williams.

And why would Griz give up on a smart, physically gifted point guard so quickly? So that Mayo can handle the ball? Take away Conley’s quirky injuries and remember he’s just 20 years old, and the Griz would be wise to keep him. My guess is that they will given Conley was a deal breaker in attempts to get the right to draft Michael Beasley.

• Trading Darko Milicic to New York for Zach Randolph (also a bad idea, if you ask me):

The Griz are willing to part with Darko Milicic (last year’s big free agent signing) in a package that wouldn’t require a core player (OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, etc). What the brain trust seems to be debating is whether Randolph fits the Grizzlies’ style on and off the court.

Randolph is a bonafide low-post scorer who can shoot along the perimeter and rebound. But he doesn’t offer much on defense, something the Griz desperately want to upgrade and Randolph’s character issues may present a problem.

As I've said elsewhere, I want to see what we have first, before we start making moves. Frankly, I think some of these rumors are just based on folks thinking that Chris Wallace is a sucker after the Gasol trade. I still think that trade is going to bear great fruit for us, and given the way Pau (under)performed in the NBA Finals, some of the sting of that trade has already worn off.

Z-Bo is a bonafide 20-10 bull in the post, but I think we should stay away for another reason than Tillery covers above: His contract is identical to Pau's. I remember this because at one point, I advocated trading Pau for Zach. But given where the team is going, and more importantly, their desire to maintain flexibility for next offseason, I don't see them tying up salary in Z-Bo, because I don't think he's that "difference-maker" that the Front Office wants. Not saying he's not a good player; I just don't see him as the difference maker.

Three other points:

1. As for trading Darko, I know I'm alone on this, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think the main problem is that his past coaches haven't used his strengths as they should. His game has looked weak as a back-to-the-basket center. I still think that the kid can shoot, and has shown an ability to take other centers off the dribble. If they used him as more a Mehmet Okur-type center -- pull opposing centers out of the lane for Conley, Mayo and Gay to drive and score, or drive and dish to Darko for a three -- it would pay HUGE dividends. I'm sure somebody here will take me to task on the Serbian Gangster, however . . .

2. I still want to see what Antoine Walker has left. Consider it a contract year, he still has an NBA championship, and I think the PT is there for him at PF, which is to say that I think he has a decent shot at beating out Hak and Arthur with his play and veteran savvy. The big question is whether or not he's motivated. I'm betting it is, because I can't see him retiring at 31-32, and he'll want to sign with/be traded to a contender later. But this is a great opportunity for him to regain cred as a team player and veteran leader.

3. Ehadadi. Short and sweet: Sign him to a reasonably priced, short contract, see what he can do. If he can snatch boards, defend a little, score on putbacks and finish on drive and dishes from Conley and Mayo, I don't see a downside.

Trades? Unless it's a clear upgrade, I say we stand pat. As I've said elsewhere on this blog, the team needs stability more than anything right now. But that's just me. What do you think?

Post comments below . . .

Moving Forward with the Forwards

(Photo by Getty Images)

Matt over at Hardwood Paroxysm emailed me last week to ask me a simple question that has been bandied about on the message boards for quite some time. That question was this: Why not take a stab at Josh Smith? He didn't use my response in his post about the matter, which is great for me, because now I can use it here.

The Grizzlies should probably at least make a cursory call in to his agent for two reasons:

1) To drive up the price that the Hawks eventually sign him for. Nothing better than making other teams overpay for their own free agents.
2) To make the Grizzlies fanbase believe that they might have intended to spend some of their cap space this offseason, even though they have said repeatedly that they were targeting the 2009 offseason to spend it.

Now, as far as them making a legitimate play for him -- this is problematic. Since he's a restricted free agent, the Grizzlies would have had to offer him more than what the Hawks were willing to match in order to actually acquire him. Because they signed Marc Gasol already, the Grizzlies only have about $10 million in cap space for the first year of that contract, which Atlanta would almost surely match.

I don't believe that Josh Smith (or any of this year's young free agents) are max-level players, but that's the kind of contract offer it would probably take to pry any of them away from their current teams. While I'm not convinced that the trio of Antoine Walker, Hakim Warrick and Darrell Arthur will be enough to cover the Grizzlies at the PF position this year, I don't see any reason why they should overpay for Smith either, given that this team is still 2 years away from making any real noise no matter who they choose to go out and sign this offseason.

Besides, there is another possibility that most people haven't discussed. What if Smith (and Igoudala, Okafor, Deng, et al.) decide to just sign the qualifying offer and test the market next summer as unrestricted free agents? Then the market truly sets their real value, rather than having to haggle with an agent, only to see their current team match that offer, leaving you with nothing to show after putting your cap space on hold for a week. This is why the Grizzlies didn't sign Andres Nocioni or Anderson Varejao to offer sheets last year, despite serious interest in them, and instead went after Darko Milicic for a reasonable sum.

Restricted free agency is almost always a fool's gambit. You either overpay, get suckered into a bad deal via trade (Kenyon Martin to the Nuggets, Joe Johnson to the Hawks) or simply waste your time (Corey Maggette retained by Clippers after signing offer sheet with Jazz). The NBA has designed it to favor the "home team" and they certainly succeeded in that regard.

On top of that, even though the Grizzlies would be more exciting and talented if they were able to sign Smith, would they be able to compete with the Lakers, Hornets and Trail Blazers over the next few years with that core group?

Now, as I stated in the email entry above, I'm not sure that I buy into the idea of entering the season with a trio of Warrick, Walker and Arthur, but I know that I don't want Josh Smith as our starting PF for the next 4-5 seasons. I'm a big fan of Smith's style of play...as a SF. That's his natural position, after all. Last time I checked, we already had a decent small forward by the name of Rudy Gay. He needs a backup, but I don't think that's what the fans have in mind when they suggest signing Smith.

I know that a lot of Grizzlies fans (all 11 of us) get a little upset when they consider the ramifications of letting everyone know that we have no intention of making a major free agent signing this offseason, despite the fact that we are the only team with any significant cap space. It sends out a message that seems to plainly say, "we're not going to try to compete this season". I mean, that's what all the media pundits are reporting across the board anyways. I've seen that phrase, or some version of it, on no less than 5 different major media websites in the past week. But just because the Grizzlies aren't throwing cash around simply because they have it, doesn't mean that they aren't being competitive. I'm not saying that I'm on board with what the Three Year Plan represents initially, but given that this is the stated direction of the front office, we might as well accept that and look at moves that fit in with that direction.

Here is my suggestion -- and one that I believe we will be able to see in action over the next two seasons. Why don't we see what we have first? As I noted yesterday, we have two young players at 4 of the 5 positions, with SF being the only one that is without competition for the next season. Conley vs. Lowry, Mayo vs. Crittenton, Warrick vs. Arthur and Gasol vs. Milicic. What if Darrell Arthur -- a consensus Top 15 pick on nearly every reputable mock draft in existence -- turns out to be worthy of that designation, rather than displaying the talent level of where he was actually selected near the end of the 1st round? In other words, what if Arthur proves to be talented enough to be the starting PF as early as next season? Wouldn't that negate the need to go out and sign a player like Josh Smith this offseason? That should be a very realistic possibility, given that he was ranked #14 overall on the Grizzlies draft board and the #4 PF by DraftExpress.


Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

In this piece on SI.com, Chris Mannix makes it clear that the Grizzlies front office has very high hopes for Arthur and loves the fact that he has come in with a tremendous chip on his shoulder due to the way that his draft stock plummeted needlessly, taking him from the back end of the lottery to the very end of the 1st round. After all, If D.A. can come in and use that motivation as a positive force (like Paul Pierce did regarding his draft position), then the rest of the league probably won't be laughing at the Memphis Grizzlies much longer. Check back tomorrow for what that future might look like.

Do the Grizzlies Have 'Big' Problems

It wasn't so long ago that the over-loaded front line drew as much criticism from fans as the current over-loaded point guard position does now. Remember when Memphis had Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, Bo Outlaw, Lorenzen Wright, Shane Battier, James Posey and Theron Smith all on the roster? Bonzi and Miller were really forwards who were forced into guard roles by the shear number of front line players.

Now Memphis has a dirth of frontline players and those they have are not experienced. Rudy Gay is entering his 3rd season and started a grand total of 124 games in his career. Hakim is beginning his 4th season and started a grand total of 75 games. Darko is the most experienced returning player and in his 5 years in the league he has started a grand total of 83 games in his career. Sure Antoine Walker has experience but he'll be 32 this coming season and hasn't player well since winning his ring in Miami three seasons ago. Does anyone feel confident relying on the 'shimmy shaker' to help educate our young players in how to be professionals?

Then we come to the primary backups at PF and C. Two rookies. One, Darrell Arthur, fell in the draft to 27th because of questionable health and heart. No there is nothing physically wrong with Darrell's heart. It just seems he doesn't bring it to the game every night. The other, Marc Gasol, was a fat kid who liked to take 3 pt shots when he left Memphis to return to Spain. This past season he was in the top 5 of the Spanish league in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Only one other player in the Spanish leagues accomplished this feat...Pops Mensah Bonsu.

WHO? Pops was on the GW team that shocked the world in the NCAA tournament a few years ago. Nice effort guy and he has a high basketball IQ but hardly someone I would say is going to be an impact player in the NBA. Doesn't that seem to trivialize Gasol's accomplishment a bit?

So the Grizzlies have a combined 283 games started total among all of their front line players not named Walker. That is a little bit more than three seasons of games (246). Antoine does have 707 career starts but only 16 in the last 2 years.

So do the Grizzlie have a big man problem? Perhaps they do. If Arthur and Gasol don't perform, if Darko doesn't improve, if Walker comes in out of shape and with a negative attitude, if Rudy doesn't continue rounding out a complete game to go with his fantastic offensive one and Warrick continues being a black hole on both sides of the court (can't defend anyone and won't pass the ball) then Memphis could be in big trouble.

The 'Toine Factor

While there has been a ton of hours logged discussing the various aspects of the draft night trade that saw O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love change franchises, most of it has focused on those two players and sharpshooter Mike Miller while ignoring the other pieces in the transaction. Jason Collins should be a solid backup for the T'Wolves, while Brian Cardinal fills the need for a "token white guy" at the end of the bench. Just kidding BC -- you know we love you and think that you'll make a great coach after your playing career is over. For Memphis, Greg Buckner will supply solid defense on the perimeter and Marko Jaric will bring one of the hottest women on the planet to our fair city. What's that? Jaric can play 3 positions? Bonus!!!

The one guy that seems to have slipped through the cracks as nothing more than a throw-in salary that will likely be unceremoniously bought out and left to the winds of free agency is Antoine Devon Walker.

You remember this guy, right? Talented, easy-going, fun-loving.....and in shape. Now just think about what could happen if he showed up in Memphis with that same mindset, that same hunger and desire to win. A tantalizing dream, isn't it? Not only could he start at PF, but he could also be a veteran influence who knows how to win on the biggest of stages. That would be quite a coup for a team full of young players that need someone who has already been through the pains and struggles of climbing the mountain. I'm not saying that 'Toine will turn into a shining example of leadership overnight, but if he wants to play in the NBA beyond this season, then he's going to have to prove to the league that he hasn't become satisfied since winning a title with the Miami Heat in 2006.

Of course, perhaps he has reached the top of the mountain and feels that there is nothing left to accomplish. Even people who know him well have hinted that Walker isn't focused on playing and just seems to be going through the motions -- coasting, as it were.

The reason I bring this up is because Walker's mindset and approach to this season will probably determine who truly got the better end of the trade. Minnesota received two starters (Miller and Love) and one contributing role player (Collins). Memphis got one starter (Mayo), two contributing role players (Buckner and Jaric) and one big question mark (Walker). If that question mark becomes an exclamation point, then the Grizzlies can confidently say that they "won" the trade. It's your move 'Toine -- will it be a Shimmy or a slow dance?

2008 Memphis Grizzlies Offseason

2008 NBA Offseason starts off with a bang!

The 2008 NBA free agency period has gotten this offseason off to a bang. It seems that Elton Brand and Baron Davis hatched a plot to make the Los Angeles Clippers more significant, while the two of them can work on their blossoming second careers as movie producers. The Clippers have vaulted themselves into the 10 team battle for the Western Conference playoffs. At this time: Golden State, Sacramento, Seattle, Minnesota and your Memphis Grizzlies seem to be on the outside with the Kings and Warriors probably making moves this summer to join the fight. Davis' defection from NoCal to SoCal leaves the Warriors with enough caproom to offer even a veteran a MAX contract. Accordingly, the rumor mill has Warrior GM Chris Mullin offering Gilbert Arenas $100 million dollars to return to the Bay area. At the time of this writing, Arenas was thought to be leaning toward turning down that ridiculous offer to accept a more retarded offer from the Washington Wizards of 6 years and $127 million dollars. I guess there is no recession in the NBA.

What does all this mean for the Memphis Grizzlies?

The Grizzlies are still one of the few teams remaining with enough caproom to make an NBA player drool. However, the landscape of the Western Conference makes it likely that unless they signed a true 1st team All NBA talent (none are available), they still could not get into the Western Conference playoff picture. That is the reality of our situation. So I expect Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace to keep his plan in motion: increase flexibility and collect assets for future use.

Now this does not mean the Grizzlies will be inactive this offseason. I think this is likely to be the most active offseason in Grizzlies history. I just do not expect them to rush out and make a splash with a headline grabbing free agent offer. The Grizzlies are in need of a veteran inside presence. They also need to thin the ranks of their guard rotation and maybe add a veteran backup for Rudy Gay.

A Deal to obtain a vet and thin the guards

The Grizzlies currently have an interior rotation of Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Darrell Arthur, Antoine Walker and hopefully Marc Gasol. Unfortunately their is no real experience or proven toughness in this group. At this point Darko is virtually untradeable, so the most likely player moved is Hakim Warrick especially since he is due for a contract extension this summer and becomes a restricted free agent next summer if not extended. Warrick has proven himself to be a capable offensive player in the NBA but I do not think he fits into Chris Wallace's long term plan.

The veteran player we obtain must be on a reasonable contract and must not disrupt the Grizzlies plan of cap flexibility. Also, the guy has to be tough presence on the boards. My top 5 list of obtainable veterans are: Reggie Evans, Joe Smith, Jason Maxiell, Malik Rose, and Anderson Varejao. Of this group I think Reggie Evans is the most interesting. Today Atlanta power forward, Josh Smith, is in Philadelphia looking to sign an offer sheet. The 76ers need to clear enough caproom to offer Smith a contract that Atlanta will be unable to match.

Here is my proposal: Reggie Evans, Calvin Booth, and Phillies 2010 1st round draft pick for Hakim Warrick and Kyle Lowry.

This deal gives Philadelphia capable backups at power forward and point guard while giving them enough caproom to offer Josh Smith a maximum contract. The 76ers keep their 2009 pick and are owed a pick from Utah that will compensate them for the pick they are giving up. The Grizzlies get a banger in Reggie Evans who can come in and start this season to stabilize the young starting lineup. Calvin Booth is an expiring and could be waived immediately. This deal for the Grizzlies would be be cap neutral in 2009 as Reggie Evans+minimum cap hold for an empty roster spot is about equal to the 2009 salaries for Hakim and Kyle. This also gives the Grizzlies three draft picks in the next strong draft class of 2010.

The Grizz after the trade

PG: Micheal Conley, Javaris Crittenton
SG: O. J. Mayo, Marko Jaric
SF: Rudy Gay, Greg Buckner
PF: Reggie Evans, Darrell Arthur, Antoine Walker
C: Darko Milicic, Marc Gasol, Calvin Booth

This gives the Grizzlies 12 players on the roster and about $14 million in expiring contracts that can be used if an opportunity falls into their lap. All they would need to do is pick up a D-Leaguer at SG/SF to complete the 13 man roster and resign Andre Brown if they cut Booth. This gives the Grizzlies a fairly balanced roster with some toughness in the post to help the young guys bang on the inside without hurting the Grizzlies future cap flexibility.

I admit this isn't as sexy as offering Josh Smith $80 million dollars but it keeps this Grizzlies on track to their goal.

Breaking News: O.J. Mayo to Memphis

Just came across ESPN.

Memphis gets:

O.J. Mayo
Marko Jaric
Antoine Walker
Greg Buckner

Minnesota gets:

Kevin Love
Mike Miller
Brian Cardinal
Jason Collins

Nothing confirmed, but we will keep you updated.

This could be a precursor to a second move that nets Michael Beasley. Perhaps Mayo/Warrick for Beasley/Banks?

Also, I would expect that if this deal goes through that Walker is bought out, as might Buckner, given that neither of their contracts are guaranteed beyond the 2008/09 season according to ESPN, although Buckner's perimeter defense could be very useful.

Update: According to the Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery, the draft rights to Donte Greene have been sent to Portland for the draft rights to Darrell Arthur. This will help fill that hole at PF. According to Chris Vernon, Arthur was ranked at #11 on the Grizzlies' draft board.

As of right now, the Mayo trade is simply pending league approval, which means that it should be a done deal.

Update 2: Chris Herrington is reporting that a 2nd deal is being finalized that doesn't involve Michael Beasley. No other details at this point.

Update 3: Herrington now says that he misunderstood and that there isn't a 2nd deal. Good night everyone!

Chip's Take: Chad Ford said that Minnesota wins the trade in the short run but in a few years you may look back and say that it was a no-brainer for Memphis.

I have to agree with that if we can keep Mayo happy here. O.J. is the type of player Memphis has always desired. He is a big name player who won't choke under pressure. Combine that with Arthur and Gasol and you have dramatically increased the talent at three positions. If Antoine Walker decides to take advantage of his opportunity and play like he is capable of playing then he could be a real steal in this trade as well. Memphis may also be moving Mayo to go for Beasley which should be very interesting if true. Remember that Miami wanted Rudy Gay before plus the #5 pick so don't get your hopes up too high that Beasley will be here when you wake up in the morning.

Jaric is not a big help but he should be able to help mature the young guns in the backcourt. Bucker brings defensive perimeter help and could be the closest thing Memphis has to a shut down defender. The big question mark is how well the veterans act. If Jaric and Buckner don't provide leadership this team could implode with the egos in the locker room. If they take a roll in being leaders then it could be a great deal. The team won't make the playoffs this season and maybe not next year but the team has made a bold statement that they are wanting to be players again.

If Antoine Walker is bought out then that should ease some of my concerns about team chemistry too. By the way, I think this proves that Heisley was telling the truth when he said there was no reason to believe he wouldn't spend money to improve the team. A buyout of Walker's contract won't come cheaply but it is probably the smart move.