Previewing the Small Forwards

by Chip Crain

Yesterday we tackled the position with the most competition and controversy swirling around it -- the Point Guards. Today we move to the one position where there is absolutely no argument about who will be starting and garnering the highest share of playing time -- Small Forward.

Why is this blog titled Previewing the Small Forwards? Shouldn't it be Previewing the Small Forward? Like in singular not plural? I mean does anyone feel the Grizzlies have a 2nd Small Forward on the team?

That question sums up the issue at small forward on the Grizzlies. When Mike Miller was sent to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo, not only did Memphis sacrifice their starting SG, but also their backup SF. Mayo can do a lot of things, but playing the 3 isn't likely to be one of them.

So Memphis has a player capable of being a star in this league but nothing behind him worth mentioning (although I will mention the candidates later anyway). The best case scenario for the Grizzlies is Rudy to average 38-40 mpg and make the next step forward along the path to becoming a major player in this league. The worst case scenario is an early season injury that prevents him from playing most of the year.

Please pretend I never even wrote that last sentence.

The Players:

Rudy Gay - What more needs to be said about the best player left on the Grizzlies team after the purge that began in January? Rudy can do it all. He can score 20 ppg, he can run, he can jump over any player in the league and still has legitimate three point range on his shot. What hasn't Rudy shown he can do? Well ball control has always been a problem for Rudy. He has freakishly long arms that make it difficult to prevent smaller players from harassing his dribble. He has been suspect on defense but that could easily be more the result of questionable coaching since he seems to have the fundamentals down. His rebounding is weak for a small forward. Finally passing is a weakness in Rudy's game. It has been argued that there weren't many other options for Rudy to pass to last year but he did have other options. At least compared to this season. Rudy has become the focal point for defenses to stop. His passing has to improve to really achieve the greatness predicted for him. Great players improve those around him. The easiest way to accomplish that is to share the rock with your open teammates.

Quinton Ross - Quinton Ross was signed to a last second contract with the Grizzlies apparently to provide Rudy Gay at least minimal minutes of rest this year. Quinton has the reputation of being a defensive specialist on the perimeter. He can and has guarded everyone from Manu Ginobili to Allen Iverson to Tony Parker and has had success against all of them. Ross could see minutes as shooting guard as well but that is unlikely with the logjam of players available for Iavaroni. If Ross plays well then possibly that would give the Grizzlies more options in playing Rudy Gay at PF however.

Greg Buckner - If there is a player on this team that will become best friends with Kevin O'Neill it should be Greg Buckner. He is the epitome of a team player. Buckner is the type of player other players don't enjoy facing up against. He's scrappy and tough and can play defense. The problem with Buckner has always been the other side of the court. The 9 year veteran out of Clemson has never cracked 7 ppg and in today's game that simply isn't good enough. The days of the one dimensional player are gone. In limited minutes Buckner may be able to get by as strictly a defensive specialist but at 6-4 he will struggle in that role against taller SF's in the league. Buckner's main contribution may come on the practice court as he shows the young players what it takes in effort to make it in this league. Veteran leadership is needed on this team and possibly Buckner could be the guy to provide it.

Marko Jaric - I know. I put Marko down as a possibility at every position but I swear I am stopping now. At least I hope I am stopping now because this is about as far as I can go with Jaric. At 6-7 Marko has the size to compete with backup SF's in the league and with his 3 pt shooting and passing ability he could really open up lanes for the slashers and big men on the team. He won't ever be a physical player however so you can forget banging underneath or grabbing rebounds as skills he brings to the position. His foot speed is a liability in the backcourt but is adequate for the SF position as well.

Antoine Walker - Okay. Stop laughing. I realize that the Shimmy Shaker is 31 and hasn't played the 3 spot adequately since his Celtic days and even then was questionable as a 3 but we are only talking about 10-12 minutes most nights and against backup players. Walker can give people fits in that time frame. He has 3 pt range and can rebound extremely well. Sure his foot speed is weak but are there many players coming off the bench in the NBA that won't have just as much trouble stopping Toine as Toine will have stopping them? Memphis won't be running with Walker at the 3 very often but that isn't all bad with the half-court scorers the team possesses. When motivated Walker has the type of personality that can motivate teammates to play better and Walker has millions of reasons to be motivated this season. Expiring contracts can have that type of effect on players.

CONCLUSION: It really isn't that difficult to see what the Grizzlies need this season from Rudy. He has to lead the team in scoring and he has to be one of two players to lead the team in minutes played for the season. It would be great for the team if Rudy also raised his rebounding number to 6+ a game and his assists went up to about 3 a game. Neither of these numbers is unreasonable by the way. If Rudy goes down to injury, even for a few weeks, there is nothing the Grizzlies could do to replace his production. Imagine if the Cavs lost LeBron. He's that important to this team. The big difference for the future is that unlike the Cavs the cupboard isn't empty behind Rudy for long. Mayo, Conley and the rest of the baby Grizzlies will come to Rudy's rescue very soon. I just don't believe it will be this year.

Because I'm Just Crazy Enough To Think It Could Work

Most of the news surrounding the Grizzlies right now is about Darrell Arthur's mistake in a hotel room or the possibility of Zach Randolph donning Beale Street Blue this season. I think that we've covered the first one pretty well, and I don't even want to think about the second one. But the potential Randolph deal did get me to thinking about another issue facing the Grizzlies. If they deal Darko & Marko to NYC, then the Grizzlies have 2 rookie C's, 4 PF's and still no backup SF (unless Greg Buckner plays out of position). That will also mean that the Grizzlies go from 13 players under contract down to 12. That opens up some possibilities.

I thought about moving Antoine Walker over to backup SF, given that he has played that position quite a lot over his career. But even then, the team will still have to sign at least one more player -- probably two. Obviously, one of those players will have to be a veteran center, given that Marc Gasol and Hamed Haddadi have played a combined ZERO minutes in the NBA so far. Any number of minimum contract stiffs could fill the bill of being the backup center, so I'm not too concerned about who they sign for that spot. But what about that other potential signing? Who should they take there?

The depth chart would look something like this if that trade took place:

PG - Conley, Lowry
SG - Mayo, Crittenton, Buckner
SF - Gay, Walker
PF - Randolph, Warrick, Arthur
C - Gasol, Haddadi, Token Stiff

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm comfortable that our PG spot is fine, given that Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt all have played that position in their recent careers. I'd love to use that last spot to shore up the SG/SF positions though. This is especially true if 'Toine comes in less than 100% motivated this season. But who could we sign for a low level contract (a given with this regime) that could actually contribute if called upon? I know of a guy that's sitting out there in free agency, just waiting for his phone to ring. A player who is already familiar with the nuances of Memphis.

You know him, you love him, so let's welcome him back to the Bluff City..........Mister Bonzi Wells!


Before you start sputtering about his past with the Grizzlies, hear me out. His play on the court was rarely ever an issue -- his conflicts with the head coach (Mike Fratello) were a problem. No more Czar = no more problem. He was a fan favorite and Heisley absolutely loved the guy while he was here. He can play both swingman positions and is a veteran who can contribute, and could even start if called upon. People want a guy who won't back down, plays with heart and wants to win every single night? Here's your guy. Am I worried about having Bonzi, Zach and 'Toine in the same locker room with all these young, impressionable players? I'm scared to death of it. But if we're going to bring Z-Bo in, then why not go all out and find another guy who is long on talent and has a questionable head? Especially if that guy might bring a few more fans back to the FedEx Forum who think of him fondly.

The contract that he signed with Houston two years ago was for 2 years and $4.5 million. Anyone else think that kind of deal would fit in with the fiscally responsible Three Year Plan? Yeah, me too. Let's be honest - Zach Randolph isn't going to bring in more fans than having Adriana Lima in the stands would have. But bringing back Bonzi might -- especially if it rekindles memories of postseasons trips in the minds of fans who are looking for something to believe in.


Bring. Back. Bonzi.

Final Position Battles

As the final week of training camp winds down Marc Iavaroni made an announcement last night on the starting point guard. The Commercial Appeal covered the comments at the press conference and printed a nice piece on it titled Iavaroni Goes with Stoudamire at Point. It is a must read for understanding the way the coach sees that position battle at this time (and yes I am trying to make peace for yesterday's blog that upset people at the CA).

That answers that question for the time being. What is still unanswered is who is winning the battle for some key reserve roles. As has been covered earlier on this blog and confirmed by Iavaroni later, the coach plans on using an 8-9 man rotation this season which shouldn't vary from opponent to opponent. We can somewhat safely assume the starting 5 are Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Damon Stoudamire and Stromile Swift. We now also know that Kyle Lowry will be Damon's backup so that is 6 of the 8-9 players.

Who is next in line?

This really breaks down to two positional battles at wing and the interior. The wing battle is the most wide open right now in my opinion with three players fighting for time. The interior battles revolves around two players. Let's take a look at the wing players today and deal with interior battle tomorrow.

Wing Battle: Juan Carlos Navarro, Tarence Kinsey and Casey Jacobsen

Why it should be Navarro: Juan Carlos comes in more mature than the others having starred in Europe and the International stage for many years. He is someone the team went out of their way to procure and he is Gasol's best friend. He is mature enough to want the ball in pressure situations and confident enough to take the big shot. Wallace and Iavaroni put their necks out a bit to acquire the guy and don't want to see him on the bench. Did I mention he was Gasol's best friend?

Why it shouldn't be Navarro: Defense. Navarro has not shown the ability to play defense at the level required in the NBA. Steve Francis routinely toasted him in Houston and he was torched by Mike Dunleavy at Indiana. These two players haven't exactly been offensive horses the last few seasons. Physically he isn't exactly a specimen. He has little vertical leaping ability and he isn't exactly fast although he is sneaky quick. Also Navarro isn't used to NBA officials or the grind of an 82 game season.

Why it should be Kinsey: Tarence Kinsey is the best defensive player among the three and when combined with Kyle Lowry makes a formidable backcourt combination. He doesn't really have three point range but he can hit the the three and he can definitely score against NBA 2 guards. He proved that last March and April.

Why it shouldn't be Kinsey: He's not a Chris Wallace/Marc Iavaroni hire. He's thin and has had injury problems in the past. His lack of true NBA 3 pt range makes it difficult to combine him with either Lowry or Conley since teams can sag off both players clogging the lane on offense.

Why it should be Jacobsen: Has more NBA experience than either other player, has the best range on his shot when his feet are planted and has worked with Iavaroni in the past while in Phoenix. He is thrilled to be back in the NBA and will leave everything on the court when he gets to play. He's smart, understands his limitations and plays within himself.

Why it shouldn't be Jacobsen: He's not fleet of foot so he won't be beating many people down the court. His shot is only effective when his feet are set and he really hasn't shown any ability to put the ball on the floor and drive. His ball handling skills are not his strong point so it puts more pressure on the point guard bring the ball up the court.

What does this mean? It means Iavaroni has a difficult decision to make. With all three players on one year contracts the losers will probably be looking to move out of town before the summer to get a head start on next season. I believe the job is Navarro's to lose right now due to the commitment that the team made in acquiring him from Washington and his closeness with Gasol. Kinsey seems to be the odd man out but could easily be back in the rotation should Navarro or Jacobsen hit a slump. His defense could also be a factor if that becomes a larger area of concern this season.

Rank Me Please! 25 Small Forwards

Disclaimer: I know that Seattle says that Kevin Durant is going to be playing SG this season. And I should probably just go back and alter my SG rankings to reflect that. However, I don't believe he'll play SG for the majority of the year, so I'm putting him at SF...so there!

Small Forwards

1. LeBron James - Like it was even a contest.
2. Carmelo Anthony - He'll continue to score at will, but will he develop the rest of his game?
3. Luol Deng - He took a massive leap forward last season and I think he'll take a substantial step forward yet again this year.
4. Josh Howard - He's #2 to Dirk on the Mavs and he'll see his role increase even more this year.
5. Paul Pierce - Sacrilege you say?!? Somebody has to see their stats drop in Boston and Pierce is my pick for the honors.
6. Rashard Lewis - In Orlando he's paired with one of the top big men in the league, which should be a very complementary relationship for his perimeter-oriented offensive skillset.
7. Caron Butler - After having a career year sidetracked by injury, I expect Caron to perform at an even higher level this season.
8. Andrei Kirilenko - Whether or not he's moved, he'll have a resurgence that will produce stats similar to his All-Star season two years ago.
9. Richard Jefferson - He needs to step up his game as the talent around him continues to age and wear down.
10. Tayshaun Prince - A versatile player on both ends of the court, Prince could see a more active role on offense this year.
11. Josh Smith - Listed next to the word "superfreak" in the dictionary. This year, he'll either make "The Leap" or will be left out in the cold when it comes time to talk contract extension with Atlanta.
12. Corey Maggette - Along with Cuttino Mobley, he'll have to take on a greater burden this season as the Clip Joint struggles to avoid the cellar while missing Elton Brand.
13. Rudy Gay - Scream "Homer pick" all you want to -- he'll thrive in Iavaroni's uptempo system with some real point guards delivering the ball to him.
14. Kevin Durant - He's going to struggle early on and he'll hit the rookie wall sooner than most expect while he is thrust into a leadership role immediately.
15. Shane Battier - His stats will look the same as they always do, but Houston will win more games than they have in recent memory due to his ability to hold things together in crunch time.
16. Ron Artest - Honestly, I expect him to have a down year, probably get traded and then promptly lose what little remaining grasp he has on sanity.
17. Danny Granger - He was going to take on more responsibility this season after his strong showing last year anyways, but with Jermaine O'Neal 's chances of getting traded stronger than ever, he might be the leading scorer for the Pacers.
18. Stephen Jackson - He'll perform well in Nellie's system again this season. Now if we can just keep him out of trouble away from the court.
19. Peja Stojakovic - Supposedly he's healthy, which makes the Hornets an early favorite to joing the playoff hunt this season.
20. Grant Hill - If he can get playing time in Phoenix, he'll be a positive contributor. His desire for a ring will coax him to push himself hard all season.
21. Luke Walton - One of the few guys that Kobe seems to like playing with in L.A., Son of Bill will need to elevate his game to keep the Black Mamba from killing the rest of his teammates.
22. Hedo Turkoglu - Will probably see his minutes decrease with the arrival of Rashard Lewis, which makes him a good candidate to be traded early in the season.
23. Kyle Korver - Wonder if he'd shoot better if he got his hair cut so it wasn't constantly in his eyes?
24. Bruce Bowen - I expect a precipitous dropoff in his regular season production, due to his age and the arrival of Ime Udoka.
25. Ruben Patterson - Simply because I read today that he's tired of people calling him "Kobe Stopper".

Guys who could enter the Top 25: Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, Tarence Kinsey, Ime Udoka, Matt Barnes, Matt Carroll, Jeff Green.