Because I'm Just Crazy Enough To Think It Could Work

Most of the news surrounding the Grizzlies right now is about Darrell Arthur's mistake in a hotel room or the possibility of Zach Randolph donning Beale Street Blue this season. I think that we've covered the first one pretty well, and I don't even want to think about the second one. But the potential Randolph deal did get me to thinking about another issue facing the Grizzlies. If they deal Darko & Marko to NYC, then the Grizzlies have 2 rookie C's, 4 PF's and still no backup SF (unless Greg Buckner plays out of position). That will also mean that the Grizzlies go from 13 players under contract down to 12. That opens up some possibilities.

I thought about moving Antoine Walker over to backup SF, given that he has played that position quite a lot over his career. But even then, the team will still have to sign at least one more player -- probably two. Obviously, one of those players will have to be a veteran center, given that Marc Gasol and Hamed Haddadi have played a combined ZERO minutes in the NBA so far. Any number of minimum contract stiffs could fill the bill of being the backup center, so I'm not too concerned about who they sign for that spot. But what about that other potential signing? Who should they take there?

The depth chart would look something like this if that trade took place:

PG - Conley, Lowry
SG - Mayo, Crittenton, Buckner
SF - Gay, Walker
PF - Randolph, Warrick, Arthur
C - Gasol, Haddadi, Token Stiff

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm comfortable that our PG spot is fine, given that Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt all have played that position in their recent careers. I'd love to use that last spot to shore up the SG/SF positions though. This is especially true if 'Toine comes in less than 100% motivated this season. But who could we sign for a low level contract (a given with this regime) that could actually contribute if called upon? I know of a guy that's sitting out there in free agency, just waiting for his phone to ring. A player who is already familiar with the nuances of Memphis.

You know him, you love him, so let's welcome him back to the Bluff City..........Mister Bonzi Wells!


Before you start sputtering about his past with the Grizzlies, hear me out. His play on the court was rarely ever an issue -- his conflicts with the head coach (Mike Fratello) were a problem. No more Czar = no more problem. He was a fan favorite and Heisley absolutely loved the guy while he was here. He can play both swingman positions and is a veteran who can contribute, and could even start if called upon. People want a guy who won't back down, plays with heart and wants to win every single night? Here's your guy. Am I worried about having Bonzi, Zach and 'Toine in the same locker room with all these young, impressionable players? I'm scared to death of it. But if we're going to bring Z-Bo in, then why not go all out and find another guy who is long on talent and has a questionable head? Especially if that guy might bring a few more fans back to the FedEx Forum who think of him fondly.

The contract that he signed with Houston two years ago was for 2 years and $4.5 million. Anyone else think that kind of deal would fit in with the fiscally responsible Three Year Plan? Yeah, me too. Let's be honest - Zach Randolph isn't going to bring in more fans than having Adriana Lima in the stands would have. But bringing back Bonzi might -- especially if it rekindles memories of postseasons trips in the minds of fans who are looking for something to believe in.


Bring. Back. Bonzi.

Math: When 1+1 Does Not Equal 2

Robert Ruark's famous Old Man once said: "One boy is all boy, two boys is half a boy and three boys is no boy at all." In the same vein, football has adopted the saying that "two quarterbacks equals no quarterback". In a way, they both say the same thing, which is that sometimes, there is indeed such a thing as too much of a good thing.

As of right now, the Grizzlies depth chart for the players in contention for the much-maligned Three Year Plan looks a little something like this:

PG: Mike Conley/Kyle Lowry
SG: O.J. Mayo/Javaris Crittenton
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Hakim Warrick/Darrell Arthur
C: Darko Milicic/Marc Gasol

The other players on the team are as follows:

Marko Jaric (PG/SG/SF?), Antoine Walker (SF/PF), Greg Buckner (SG/SF?)

Notice something about those young guys at four of the five positions above? That's right -- there are two of them fighting for the same minutes at the same position. At this point, we suspect that we know who the eventual winners will be, but in reality we don't actually know yet. That doubt in our minds is even more present in their's, because each of them truly believes that they deserve the lion's share of minutes. Well, except maybe for Darko. I don't know what he believes -- mostly because I'm too petrified of him to study him at length. Do you blame me?

Danica McKellar, who actually authored a math book.

There are 48 available minutes at each of those 5 positions and at some point in this season, a player is going to step up and show that he is worthy of 28-35 of them, rather than 13-20. But until that happens, it is anyone's game and that is when issues can arise.

Many people lambasted Chris Wallace for not moving one of the young guards (typically either Kyle Lowry or Javaris Crittenton) during the draft or in the offseason to this point, feeling that there were too many good young players with not enough places to play in the backcourt. I agree about the core idea (too much/not enough), but not about their solution. In this regard, I think that these players have to prove which of them is better and thusly deserve to stay and play in Memphis. In particular, the quartet of Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt have proven absolutely nothing to anyone at this point and all should be striving to show what they are capable of. When that happens, then a move can be made based on good evaluations and information. That might be after two months, at the trade deadline or possibly even next offseason. But once it becomes apparent that Player A is a keeper and Player Q is expendable, a move must be made before chemistry is upset and that player's value takes a hit.

With all of that said, I have had some interesting conversations lately about who the perceived "odd man out" is. Fans around the league seem to believe that it is Javaris Crittenton, as his name has popped up in numerous trade rumors. In my unqualified, unmedicated opinion, it would appear that Kyle Lowry is the far more likely choice based on a number of reasons.

First, he was the last draft choice of the old regime led by Jerry West, while the other three guards have been brought in by Chris Wallace. That alone has to count for something, as has been noted by my co-blogger Zack on numerous occasions.

Next, while he is full of grit, determination and tenacity, the perception is that his upside is much more limited than the other three players fighting for minutes in the backcourt. As we all know, perception all too often becomes reality when dealing with unmeasurable qualities like potential. The notion than Conley will become better than Lowry, even if he isn't yet there in many people's minds, will be an important factor in this decision.

Finally, he is a PG and a PG only. Whereas Mayo and Critt (both in the 6'4"-6'5" range) are reputed to be capable of playing either guard spot, meaning that a three guard rotation of Conley/Mayo/Critt is capable of splitting the 96 minutes at PG & SG without there being a dropoff. As anyone who saw the Grizzlies put Conley and Lowry on the floor at the same time last year could tell you, it might have given the team an extra quality ballhandler on the floor, but the lost size was a big issue. That, above all else, proved that 1+1 did not equal a 2 guard on the floor.

Hopefully, all of these things will work themselves out and the Grizzlies will find themselves with quality players at all 5 positions by the end of the season, putting them in a position to draft based solely upon "Best Player Available", rather than worrying about need. Because that's how you truly get better thru the draft -- which appears to be the best way that Grizzlies will have to rise up through the ranks once again and return to the postseason.

Final Position Battles

As the final week of training camp winds down Marc Iavaroni made an announcement last night on the starting point guard. The Commercial Appeal covered the comments at the press conference and printed a nice piece on it titled Iavaroni Goes with Stoudamire at Point. It is a must read for understanding the way the coach sees that position battle at this time (and yes I am trying to make peace for yesterday's blog that upset people at the CA).

That answers that question for the time being. What is still unanswered is who is winning the battle for some key reserve roles. As has been covered earlier on this blog and confirmed by Iavaroni later, the coach plans on using an 8-9 man rotation this season which shouldn't vary from opponent to opponent. We can somewhat safely assume the starting 5 are Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Damon Stoudamire and Stromile Swift. We now also know that Kyle Lowry will be Damon's backup so that is 6 of the 8-9 players.

Who is next in line?

This really breaks down to two positional battles at wing and the interior. The wing battle is the most wide open right now in my opinion with three players fighting for time. The interior battles revolves around two players. Let's take a look at the wing players today and deal with interior battle tomorrow.

Wing Battle: Juan Carlos Navarro, Tarence Kinsey and Casey Jacobsen

Why it should be Navarro: Juan Carlos comes in more mature than the others having starred in Europe and the International stage for many years. He is someone the team went out of their way to procure and he is Gasol's best friend. He is mature enough to want the ball in pressure situations and confident enough to take the big shot. Wallace and Iavaroni put their necks out a bit to acquire the guy and don't want to see him on the bench. Did I mention he was Gasol's best friend?

Why it shouldn't be Navarro: Defense. Navarro has not shown the ability to play defense at the level required in the NBA. Steve Francis routinely toasted him in Houston and he was torched by Mike Dunleavy at Indiana. These two players haven't exactly been offensive horses the last few seasons. Physically he isn't exactly a specimen. He has little vertical leaping ability and he isn't exactly fast although he is sneaky quick. Also Navarro isn't used to NBA officials or the grind of an 82 game season.

Why it should be Kinsey: Tarence Kinsey is the best defensive player among the three and when combined with Kyle Lowry makes a formidable backcourt combination. He doesn't really have three point range but he can hit the the three and he can definitely score against NBA 2 guards. He proved that last March and April.

Why it shouldn't be Kinsey: He's not a Chris Wallace/Marc Iavaroni hire. He's thin and has had injury problems in the past. His lack of true NBA 3 pt range makes it difficult to combine him with either Lowry or Conley since teams can sag off both players clogging the lane on offense.

Why it should be Jacobsen: Has more NBA experience than either other player, has the best range on his shot when his feet are planted and has worked with Iavaroni in the past while in Phoenix. He is thrilled to be back in the NBA and will leave everything on the court when he gets to play. He's smart, understands his limitations and plays within himself.

Why it shouldn't be Jacobsen: He's not fleet of foot so he won't be beating many people down the court. His shot is only effective when his feet are set and he really hasn't shown any ability to put the ball on the floor and drive. His ball handling skills are not his strong point so it puts more pressure on the point guard bring the ball up the court.

What does this mean? It means Iavaroni has a difficult decision to make. With all three players on one year contracts the losers will probably be looking to move out of town before the summer to get a head start on next season. I believe the job is Navarro's to lose right now due to the commitment that the team made in acquiring him from Washington and his closeness with Gasol. Kinsey seems to be the odd man out but could easily be back in the rotation should Navarro or Jacobsen hit a slump. His defense could also be a factor if that becomes a larger area of concern this season.

Rank Me Please! 25 Shooting Guards

You can read the rules for the rankings here. Let's jump in.

Shooting Guards

1. Kobe Bryant - The Black Mamba will devour everyone in his way...including his teammates and front office.
2. Tracy McGrady - He's in great shape after missing a few games last season and is still one of the most complete scorers in the game.
3. Dwyane Wade - Why here? Because reports are that the Heat aren't sure of when he'll be 100% after his offseason surgeries. If his healing process hits any snags, he could face some lingering issues.
4. Michael Redd - Lost more than a few games to injury last year, but shot very well from all over the floor and will have more weapons around him this season, making him even more dangerous.
5. Joe Johnson - Is he putting up great numbers on a bad team? Absolutely. But he got some help this offseason that could take care of the cellar dweller moniker the Hawks have been saddled with. If his team gels, he could average 28+ ppg this season.
6. Ray Allen - He just won the lottery. With Garnett and Pierce slashing and posting up, he'll get to camp out behind the arc and bomb away to his heart's content. He might challenge the record for 3-pointers attempted and made in a season if he stays healthy.
7. Richard Hamilton - His teammates are another year older, but nobody is in better shape than Rip, so look for him to carry his team and lead them in scoring this season.
8. Vince Carter - Is he in a contract year? Didn't think so. He'll continue to shoot fadeaways and avoid contact while his shooting percentages continue to slide.
9. Jason Richardson - The BETcats have a legit lead scorer now, so look for him to lead by example. The interesting thing to consider is that his style of play didn't fit in with Nellie's free-wheelin' system and he still put up great numbers.
10. Manu Ginobili - He's a flopper and a royal pain in the butt for opponents, but he's still sneaky good with the ball in his hands and his outside shot is still improving.
11. Kevin Martin - This is one guy that won't take a step back after signing a big contract extension. With Bibby and Artest on the trade block, he could be the de facto leader on this team by January.
12. Andre Igoudala - He's poised to jump to the next level after emerging from a cocoon following the Iverson trade last season. If he puts it all together, the rest of the division could be dealing with another team fighting for the top spot.
13. Leandro Barbosa - He had a coming out party last season and continued to impress during international play this summer. Steve Nash and Raja Bell will need some rest this season if they are to get over the hump in the postseason, so look for him to get even more playing time this year.
14. Mike Miller - Played at a very high level after Pau Gasol returned from injury and Tony Barone instituted an uptempo system. With Marc Iavaroni set to run, run, run this season, look for Miller to put up solid numbers again.
15. Jason Terry - Moved over from PG last season and bounced back from a poor season the previous year. He also posted a career high in 3PT%.
16. Ben Gordon - He's a one trick pony, but what a trick it is. He scores points like he's at an arcade.
17. Raja Bell - Solid perimeter shooter (.413% last season) and dogged defender, Bell has established himself with the Suns after bouncing around the league his first few seasons.
18. Morris Peterson - He seems to have been forgotten now that he's in NOLA. That's a mistake, as he's likely to become CP3's favorite target in the open floor.
19. Cuttino Mobley - With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston out, somebody is going to have to step up. Mobley will take on as much responsibility as Mike Dunleavy can give him and will fill the stat sheet on a nightly basis.
20. Wally Szczerbiak - I can see you scratching your head right now. He's the likely starting SG for the Sonics as they embark on the Kevin Durant era. Wally is still a capable scorer and he's healthier now than he has been in quite some time.
21. Brandon Roy - He'll have to carry the load this year with no Zach Randolph to take on the brunt of the scoring. LaMarcus Aldridge will be some help, but I think Roy will find it a little more difficult this season than he did in his rookie campaign.
22. Monta Ellis - Should see more PT for last year's MIP now that Jason Richardson is on the other coast. If he can continue to improve, look for him to make everyone forget about last year's Sarunas Jasikevicius experiment.
23. Ricky Davis - It pains me to have him on this list, but he's the most proven scorer in Minnesota and it will take his teammates some time to figure out that he's a black hole on offense.
24. Juan Carlos Navarro - La Bomba will take some time to get acclimated to the NBA, but once he does the fireworks will begin.
25. Jamal Crawford - He'll continue to shoot without conscience (or awareness of his teammates on the court) and his stats will reflect that, just as they do every season.

Players who could move into the Top 25: J.R. Smith, Ronnie Brewer, Corey Brewer, Rodney Stuckey, Thabo Sefalosha, Matt Carroll