2008 Memphis Grizzlies Offseason

2008 NBA Offseason starts off with a bang!

The 2008 NBA free agency period has gotten this offseason off to a bang. It seems that Elton Brand and Baron Davis hatched a plot to make the Los Angeles Clippers more significant, while the two of them can work on their blossoming second careers as movie producers. The Clippers have vaulted themselves into the 10 team battle for the Western Conference playoffs. At this time: Golden State, Sacramento, Seattle, Minnesota and your Memphis Grizzlies seem to be on the outside with the Kings and Warriors probably making moves this summer to join the fight. Davis' defection from NoCal to SoCal leaves the Warriors with enough caproom to offer even a veteran a MAX contract. Accordingly, the rumor mill has Warrior GM Chris Mullin offering Gilbert Arenas $100 million dollars to return to the Bay area. At the time of this writing, Arenas was thought to be leaning toward turning down that ridiculous offer to accept a more retarded offer from the Washington Wizards of 6 years and $127 million dollars. I guess there is no recession in the NBA.

What does all this mean for the Memphis Grizzlies?

The Grizzlies are still one of the few teams remaining with enough caproom to make an NBA player drool. However, the landscape of the Western Conference makes it likely that unless they signed a true 1st team All NBA talent (none are available), they still could not get into the Western Conference playoff picture. That is the reality of our situation. So I expect Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace to keep his plan in motion: increase flexibility and collect assets for future use.

Now this does not mean the Grizzlies will be inactive this offseason. I think this is likely to be the most active offseason in Grizzlies history. I just do not expect them to rush out and make a splash with a headline grabbing free agent offer. The Grizzlies are in need of a veteran inside presence. They also need to thin the ranks of their guard rotation and maybe add a veteran backup for Rudy Gay.

A Deal to obtain a vet and thin the guards

The Grizzlies currently have an interior rotation of Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Darrell Arthur, Antoine Walker and hopefully Marc Gasol. Unfortunately their is no real experience or proven toughness in this group. At this point Darko is virtually untradeable, so the most likely player moved is Hakim Warrick especially since he is due for a contract extension this summer and becomes a restricted free agent next summer if not extended. Warrick has proven himself to be a capable offensive player in the NBA but I do not think he fits into Chris Wallace's long term plan.

The veteran player we obtain must be on a reasonable contract and must not disrupt the Grizzlies plan of cap flexibility. Also, the guy has to be tough presence on the boards. My top 5 list of obtainable veterans are: Reggie Evans, Joe Smith, Jason Maxiell, Malik Rose, and Anderson Varejao. Of this group I think Reggie Evans is the most interesting. Today Atlanta power forward, Josh Smith, is in Philadelphia looking to sign an offer sheet. The 76ers need to clear enough caproom to offer Smith a contract that Atlanta will be unable to match.

Here is my proposal: Reggie Evans, Calvin Booth, and Phillies 2010 1st round draft pick for Hakim Warrick and Kyle Lowry.

This deal gives Philadelphia capable backups at power forward and point guard while giving them enough caproom to offer Josh Smith a maximum contract. The 76ers keep their 2009 pick and are owed a pick from Utah that will compensate them for the pick they are giving up. The Grizzlies get a banger in Reggie Evans who can come in and start this season to stabilize the young starting lineup. Calvin Booth is an expiring and could be waived immediately. This deal for the Grizzlies would be be cap neutral in 2009 as Reggie Evans+minimum cap hold for an empty roster spot is about equal to the 2009 salaries for Hakim and Kyle. This also gives the Grizzlies three draft picks in the next strong draft class of 2010.

The Grizz after the trade

PG: Micheal Conley, Javaris Crittenton
SG: O. J. Mayo, Marko Jaric
SF: Rudy Gay, Greg Buckner
PF: Reggie Evans, Darrell Arthur, Antoine Walker
C: Darko Milicic, Marc Gasol, Calvin Booth

This gives the Grizzlies 12 players on the roster and about $14 million in expiring contracts that can be used if an opportunity falls into their lap. All they would need to do is pick up a D-Leaguer at SG/SF to complete the 13 man roster and resign Andre Brown if they cut Booth. This gives the Grizzlies a fairly balanced roster with some toughness in the post to help the young guys bang on the inside without hurting the Grizzlies future cap flexibility.

I admit this isn't as sexy as offering Josh Smith $80 million dollars but it keeps this Grizzlies on track to their goal.

Post Game Thoughts - Atlanta

A mother with a teething child on an airplane. A teenager watching his mother show his first prom date pictures of him as a child. People who are shown in first round elimination clips from America's Idol. Grizzlies fans at the FedEx Forum.

People who are embarrassed?

That is correct!

Through three quarters last night it was one of those games where you just wanted to run away and hide in shame. They happen to all teams in the NBA. After all the Lakers lost back to back home games against Charlotte and Memphis last week. Boston lost back to back games to Washington. San Antonio lost to Memp...well let's forget that one for the time being.

The point is that every team at some point of the season puts up a really poor effort and last night in front of their true and loyal fans (all 3,000 of them from the looks of the stands) the Grizzlies put on a truly lackluster effort. Atlanta shot 68% in the first half. Not from the line but from the field! They were perfect from the line. Memphis was shooting 40% at that time. Not from the field but from the free throw line! Memphis was actually shooting 50% from the field at halftime. Memphis trailed by 31 points at the end of the 3rd quarter...to the Hawks! The Hawks were shooting 69% at the end of the 3rd quarter. The Hawks were on fire and the Grizzlies were not making it difficult for the Hawks either.

How bad have things gotten that the Clippers and Hawks blew us out in back to back games?

If you only saw the final score, and judging from the crowd at the game most of you did only see the final score, it didn't look that bad. Don't be confused. The only reason the score wasn't worse was Mike Woodson, Atlanta's coach, felt sorry for the Grizzlies and put in his bench players.

That was nearly a mistake too. As if a spell had been lifted Memphis played some of their best basketball in the first half of the 4th quarter when they cut the 31 pt lead to a mere 12 points and Rudy Gay had an open look on a 3 pt shot to cut the lead to 9 with more than half the quarter remaining.

Rudy missed the shot of course and Memphis went the next 4 possessions without scoring while Atlanta milked the clock down on their possessions and the game was over but for 6:30 the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the worst teams in the NBA, outscored the Altanta Hawks, a playoff team as it currently stands, by an incredible 23 to 4 pts. Sure the Grizzlies only scored 4 points the rest of the way and by failing to score a 5th point deprived the fans of 10 free wings at Hooters, but for 6 and a half minutes they were the Durham Bulls with Crash Davis. They were the Chicago Bulls with Michael Jordan, No bull. They were really playing well.

It didn't last long but it salvaged what was a pretty sad effort overall. The best +/- ratio among our starters was Rudy Gay's -15 and he dominated the 4th quarter scoring 12 points by himself in the quarter. After Rudy only Hakim scored in double figures and that was 11 pts on 3-8 shooting. Mike Miller played 18 minutes and shot the ball 3 times, all from long range. Mike had as many turnovers as shot attempts in the game. Mike Conley was totally outclassed by Mike Bibby. Darko looked terribe dropping easy passes, missing hook shots when he could easily have dunked the ball and basically not trying to be a force inside against rookie Al Horford who was 4 inches shorter than him.

Ah but the bench, now those guys came to play. Kyle Lowry was 7-9 shooting and constantly forcing issues in the paint. Juan Carlos Navarro was 7-14 ahooting and forced the Hawks into numerous defensive breakdowns. His three more long balls raising his season total to 142, 16 short of the NBA rookie record with 8 games remaining. Javaris Crittenton got things moving with defense and rebounding but was a little out of control on offense a few times (okay completely out of control more than a few times) but at least he was giving some effort! The bench plus Rudy Gay salvaged an otherwise forgetable game. Of course it is the bench plus Rudy Gay that are probably the future of this franchise. Darko hasn't shown he is worth what we are paying him (which is a lot less than he demanded in June) and Mike Conley looks like a 19 yr old who isn't used to the grind of the NBA.

The good news is that the loss put us a game ahead of Minnesota for the all important 37 extra ping pong balls that the difference between 3rd and 4th makes in the lottery machine.

So the bench and the ping pong balls. That is the only nice things I can say about last nights game.

Memphis vs Atlanta - 3.31.08

INTERNATIONAL NIGHT
Once again the Grizzlies honor foreign players, both Memphis' and the opponents, with special ticket prices. If you are a citizen of China or Spain you can really get great discounts with a valid passport. Tonight honors Zaza Pachulia of the Hawks. The strange thing is Zaza is from Georgia. Isn't everyone on the Hawks team from Georgia???

Memphis had a near perfect road trip going 1-2 with the only win against the LA Lakers who's pick the Grizzlies own this season. The road trip ended with a loss to the LA Clippers putting the Clippers three games behind the Grizzlies in the lottery race. You can't ask for better than that. The young guns are starting to play the uptempo style that Iavaroni prefers and the team is playing on both sides of the court. Memphis held the Lakers and Kings to under 40% shooting for the game as well as hitting shots above their season average from the field.

Atlanta has finally put some distance between themselves and the pretenders for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. No one is sure if that is a good thing or not as the Hawks first round opponent will be the Boston Celtics while the Nets will be 11th in the lottery and could fall lower. Not a great reward for making the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Atlanta is led by Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Joe Johnson was originally drafted by then Boston GM Chris Wallace and Josh Smith is rumored to be a player that Wallace is interested in this summer in free agency.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Mike Bibby
Mike Conley seems to have gotten over the rookie wall, even if he swears he never hit it, in the last 10 games highlighted by a 17 pt game (and highest scoring game of his career) against the Clippers. Mike Bibby has hurt his thumb again but is still averaging 14.2 ppg and 6.6 apg as a Hawk. Bibby is a far better shooter from the outside than Conley but Mike has the jets Bibby never had and he is getting older. Still Bibby has the reputation with the refs so expect him to get away with murder compared to Conley.
Advantage: Atlanta

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Joe Johnson
Mike Miller must wonder why he ever recovered from his bad back. In the last few games Mike has been matched up against Kevin Martin, Cuttino Mobley, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant and now Joe Johnson. Johnson is possibly them most complete of these players as well averaging 21.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg and 5.7 apg. Johnson has a sweet long range shot but can drive the ball equally well and when trapped knows how to find the open man. Miller has not been exactly on top of his game lately but against competition like this it is difficult to know if Mike isn't playing well or he is just focusing on other aspects of his game.
Advantage: Atlanta

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Josh Smith
Rudy Gay is one of the most athletic big men in the game, capable of shooting over anyone, hitting the long ball and making exciting in game dunks. Josh Smith might be better than Rudy in all of these areas except long range shooting and Josh is far better defensively than Rudy. Josh, a former slam dunk champion, is averaging 16.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.5 spg and 2.9 bpg. He is a fantasy god in other words hitting every statistical catagory. If there is one draw back it is his 3 pt shooting which he loves to take but can't hit. This match up is worth the price of admission as Rudy averages 19.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.4 spg and 0.9 bpg.
Advantage: Atlanta

Power Forwards: Hakim Warrick vs Marvin Williams
Marvin Williams was the undisputed #2 pick in the 2005 draft who many people thought should be drafted ahead of Marvin Bogut. Atlanta needed a point guard but they went with the smart pick so they passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Oops. Hakim Warrick was in that draft as well but fell hard during draft night from a top 10 pick all the way down to 19 and Memphis. As a starter Hak is averaging 17.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg and hitting 54% of his shots. Marvin is averaging 15.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg and shooting 45.8% from the field. Of course Marvin is still 4 yrs younger than Hakim but the parallels of their careers are still interesting to look at.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Al Horford
An interesting match between two of the more intriguing big men in the league. Once again Atltanta passed on their need for a PG in the draft and took Memphis' #1 want in Al Horford. That pick has looked a lot smarter than the Marvin Williams pick. Horford isn't a great NBA scoring big but as a rookie he nearly averages a double-double at 9..9 ppg and 9.7 rpg. Darko, a year older than Horford, has struggled since entering the NBA but has shown a lot of promise at the end of the season averaging 10.0 ppg and 8.8 rpg in March. Horford has a lot more speed than Darko and that has been Milicic's defensive Achilles heal.
Advantage: Atlanta

Benches: Memphis vs Atlanta
Memphis' bench has been the spark plug driving the engine lately. With Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton and Juan Carlos Navarro spearheading the offense and Jason Collins the defense, Memphis' bench has been ramping up the tempo and making it difficult for teams' starters to catch their breaths for long. Atlanta's bench has a 6th man of the year candidate in Josh Childress but little else. Salim Stoudamire is playing better of late but he only averages 5.3 ppg for the season. Former Grizz 10 day contract pickup Jeremy Richardson (he replaced Tarence Kinsey) is trying to stay in the league with his third team this season (Memphis and San Antonio being the others), but so far has not really shown a lot.
Advantage: Memphis

Relevant Blogs/Commentary:
Atlanta Hawks Pre-Game Report
Impending Firestorm
Sekou Smith - Atlanta Journal Constitution
Hawks BasketBlog

Postgame Thoughts: Memphis at Atlanta 12.08.07

No in-depth analysis is really needed for this game. It was ugly.

No -- uglier than that.

Nope -- uglier still.

Now you're getting the hang of it.

Chip's Viewpoint:
Maybe Stro's illness is spreading to the rest of the team like it did to Damon. That and the fact that this was the 3rd game in four days somewhat justifies the shooting touch. I disagree with the attitude some have that the team didn't have effort. They played hard for most of the game but they couldn't hit the broadside of a barn tonight.

I can't imagine a worse time to go 0-4 in a week. Home against Portland, two division games and then a road trip to Atlanta to end the week. 2-2 would have been good. 1-3 would have been acceptable. This was embarrassing. Not only tonight but only one decent effort the entire week. Hopefully with the team regaining full strength with the return of Darko something will change around here and the team will start getting some better results. With Detroit coming up on Tuesday and the Clippers after that now would be a good time to turn things around.

For the first time this season the team is behind where I expected them to be and I only predicted 33 wins.

Memphis at Atlanta - Dec 8, 2007

Memphis is playing their 3rd road game in 4 days after scrapping with division foes while shorthanded. That is the bad news. The good news is that they are playing a team that is younger, more volatile and definitely more unpredictable than the Grizzlies. Memphis has been needing more interior players with Stro sick and Darko injured. That will be the case again as Atlanta throws Al Horford against the Grizzlies but Marvin Williams isn't any bigger than Rudy Gay so Rudy won't be physically out-matched at the four. The problem in this match up for the Grizzlies are Atlanta's perimeter players. How will Navarro and Miller contain Joe Johnson and Josh Smith?

Atlanta is young and inconsistent. Some nights the combination of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford and Acie Law look incredible. Other nights they look horrible. The Hawks have more athletic talent than almost any other team in the league but the talent hasn't resulted in wins. The reason is that the team is so young that they don't know how to win in the league. And there isn't anyone on the roster that seems able to teach them either. Joe Johnson, the player Chris Wallace traded away from Boston not so many years ago, is the closest thing to a leader on the team and this man left Phoenix for Atlanta because he wanted to be a star more than be a piece of a possible championship team.

Crunch Time Woes

The Griz have yet to win a game this year decided by 3 points or less (0 for 6). That hurts. And by my count, 11 of the 19 games this year were essentially anyone's game with ~2 minutes to play in the 4th. The Griz are 4-7 in those games. With the key being not to need a last second shot to win or leave time for the other team to have a last second shot to win. This week alone the Griz have lost two games on last second shots. What surely can't be a good sign, Joe Johnson beat the Twolves this week on a last second shot. I don't know about you, but I have very little confidence in the Griz successfully executing in crunch time. And I don't think the responsibility falls all on the players. If you go back and look at the play-by-play in most of those close games, we routinely have a bad offensive possession coming out of a timeout. That is likely in part due to our rookie head coach (who surprisingly has never, to my knowledge, been a head coach at any level before this season....he is the ultimate rookie head coach...it may take him more time than I expect to have successful crunch time game planning).

Zack's Blatantly Obvious Keys to Victory
1.) Better perimeter defense.
2.) Better, crisper passes on offense.
3.) Do a better job of preventing second chance points for the Hawks.

Matchups

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Anthony Johnson
Anthony Johnson wasn't supposed to be starting for Atlanta. Damon Stoudamire wasn't supposed to be starting for the Grizzlies this late in the season. Well maybe Damon starting but definitely not increasing his minutes every night. Johnson has performed well in his role of distributor but he isn't going to hurt you most nights on offense. His job is to get the offense started and get out of the way. He understands this and does his job. Damon has been stepping up of late and becoming another long range threat for the Grizzlies. They need that threat now with the interior so thin because of injuries.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Joe Johnson
Joe Johnson is shooting terrible right now. He's made 65 of his last 171 shots. One has to wonder if winning is something that remotely concerns JJ. He obviously believes he can shoot himself out of this slump that has him hitting only 40% of his FG Attempts and below 30% of his 3pt attempts. Navarro isn't known as a great defender and if JJ posts him he will need some help. Navarro is sneaky good as a shooter but JJ can play some defense when he wants to. If JJ is hot then this is a serious mismatch. I don't know why but doesn't it seem Memphis is the cure for most teams shooting problems this year?
Advantage: Atlanta

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Josh Smith
This is when Grizzlies fans really start hoping Darko is capable of playing. Or at least Stro because this match up is really frightening athletically. Josh Smith is capable of making great athletes look silly. He's also capable of making a lot of silly plays. Josh can do almost anything with a ball on a court. The problem is that he believes he can do everything and he can't. Once he learns that his athletic ability does have limitations and he doesn't have to try to do everything he could become one of the best players in the league. Until then he is just a talented player who doesn't seem to know how to play the team game. Miller is all about team often to the chagrin of Grizz fans who wish he would try and be more selfish. He has one of the sweetest shots in the game, can get past defenders who only guard against the long ball and rebounds as well as any one his size in the league. Miller is slow of foot however and can't jump half as high as Smith. The key here is for Mike to play off Smith and not let him drive since Smith's outside game is suspect.
Advantage: Atlanta

Power Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Marvin Williams
Rudy Gay vs Marvin Williams is a match up of two of the most talented players from the class of 2008. Marvin spent one season in UNC before turning pro while Rudy spent two at UConn. The both are having breakout seasons this year with Marvin Williams averaging 15.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 apg and shooting 48.7% from the floor. Rudy is averaging 18.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.4 apg and shooting 47.1% from the floor. If anything differentiates these players it is that Rudy is a better perimeter scorer. This is a battle of future stars in the league and should be exciting to watch. Too bad that Rudy will be playing his 3rd game in 4 days while Atlanta has been at home this week waiting on the Grizzlies.
Advantage: Atlanta

Centers: Pau Gasol vs Al Horford
Al Horford was the player most Grizzlies fans were willing to settle for in the last draft. The 6-10, 245 pound bruiser was the perfect compliment to svelte Pau Gasol and would legitimize the Grizzlies front line. Unfortunately the Grizz didn't get a shot at Horford, Durant or Oden and instead took Michael Conley. that pick could still turn out well for the Grizzlies but watching Al Horford will still hurt somewhat. Horford has been everything expected averaging 10.6 rpg and 8.8 ppg in his rookie year. Gasol has been less than what you expect but his game has been improving of late. Gasol will be a tough stop for Horford but expect Williams and Smith to be helping out down low a lot and daring our perimeter scorers to beat them. The thing is that Gasol is excellent at passing out of trouble.
Advantage: Memphis

Benches: Memphis vs Atlanta

Atlanta's bench is being run thin just like the Grizzlies due to injury. Josh Childress has joined ZaZa Pachulia and Tyrone Lue on the list while Memphis has darko Milicic, Stromile Swift and Michael Conley all down at the moment. This game won't likely be determined by either team's bench unless one of those six names returns to action. Memphis still has Kyle Lowry but his star has begun to fade of late, Casey Jacobsen can fill in but hasn't shown anyone why he was signed this summer and Andre Brown gives a ton of effort even if he is short on results. Atlanta has Salim Stoudamire, former #5 draft pick Sheldon Williams and Acie Law but their production has been sporadic at best.
Advantage: Memphis

Update I (12:30 am, 12.08.07 by Zack) - Health an Issue
All of a sudden, we have been struck by a string of health issues. Stro has missed 2 games with a stomach virus and now Damon missed the Friday night Hornets game with the same flu bug. I hope more players don't come down with it too. That left Lowry as the only healthy PG, which isn't a preferable situation despite the fact it allowed Lowry to start his first game. Darko returned against Hornets and played major minutes. It is apparent that his ankle isn't 100%. Darko is proving to be a warrior to push through the pain. Even Miller left the Hornets game momentarily with an apparent injury issue, but returned shortly. The health of the Griz players will be key tonight. We will try to get a new post up before the game if there is again a surprising injury scratch like last night with Damon.

Other Pre-game Sites/Relevant Commentary:
Atlanta Hawks Preview
Hawks - Impending Firestorm
Hawks - Sekou Smith
The Fanhouse (Tom Ziller): Hawks broken, not broke

Got a Prediction? Leave it in the Comments.