Previewing the Shooting Guards

by Joshua Coleman

So far this week, Chip has covered the Point Guards and Small Forwards. In terms of competition for playing time, those two are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Throughout this offseason, many people have thought that the Shooting Guard position would be closer to SF than PG regarding that area of expectations. As usual, I have a slightly different perspective on what is going to take place this season as everyone anticipates the introduction of Ovinton J'Anthony Mayo to the NBA.

Will O.J. Mayo start the most games at SG this year barring injury? Yes.
Will O.J. Mayo rival Rudy Gay's death grip on playing time for his position? No...and here's why. First, Mayo is a rookie and we all know what that means: transition and the dreaded "rookie wall". Second, he has another young guard by the name of Javaris Crittenton on the roster that will garner some playing time this year, too. Third, the team will probably give some token playing time to Marko Jaric at that position to keep his trade value at something above the "Cardinal Line" (the Mendoza Line for trade bait) this year. Finally, Mayo is a long-term investment for this team, so they want him to get enough PT to gain experience, but no too much, which leads to unnecessary wear-and-tear on young players and can contribute to nagging injuries.

So let's look at how they all break down.

The Players:

O.J. Mayo - There hasn't been a rookie arrive in Memphis with this level of expectations since.....well....ever, to be quite honest. Some people are expecting him to win Rookie of the Year and score 20 ppg. Others believe that he will be the Superstar that the team has been searching for. My expectations (as per usual) are a little milder than that. I expect that Mayo will be a solid, if erratic, contributor this season, providing good defense and perimeter shooting, along with some decent playmaking ability from the off-guard spot early on. If he continues to make shots as well as he has recently (reportedly he's making everything in sight in pickup games with his teammates), then he could post some very solid numbers in his rookie campaign. Even though I stated above that I don't expect him to have a stranglehold on playing time, I do expect Mayo to average 24-28 mpg this year. Mayo's determination and drive to succeed could be the turning point in this franchise as they look to climb the ladder back into the postseason in the future.

Javaris Crittenton - Critt was the subject of much scrutiny after the trade last year that sent Pau Gasol to Los Angeles. Mostly this was because he was the only player coming back in the deal that gave the home fans any hope, since everyone knew that Kwame Brown and Aaron McKie were just future cap space. Javaris didn't really disappoint anyone, but I don't think that he has truly impressed all that many either. As yet another young player who professes to be a point guard, he needs to improve his playmaking ability for his teammates period just to get onto the floor. Too often he plays faster than he should, which is an all-too-common problem for young players who need to learn how to let the game come to them. If his shooting has improved over the summer, he should definitely be the first guard off the bench and see plenty of time at the 2.

Marko Jaric - While Chip might insist on putting him at every position on the roster in order to post as many pictures of his lovely fiancée as possible, I'm placing him here because that's where I truly believe that he will get the majority of his playing time. Jaric isn't particularly spectacular at any one area (other than dating apparently), but he doesn't have a glaring weakness either, which makes him a suitable choice to get some minutes backing up Mayo and Critt if either of them are injured or have cold shooting nights.

Greg Buckner - The "forgotten" man in the draft night trade, Buckner is a solid defender who is rather non-descript in every other area of the game. Given the details of his contract, it is unlikely that Buckner will be on the team beyond this year, which means that he probably won't garner much playing time this year as he isn't part of the future of the team.

CONCLUSION: I think that fans should expect O.J. Mayo to get 50-65% of the available playing time this season, Crittenton to receive 30-35% and Jaric to get whatever happens to be left over. Mayo might not come out strong at the onset of his first NBA season, but I expect that by the end of the year he'll have people talking about him across the NBA landscape. Critt has an excellent shot at making an impact in his second season as well. What the Grizzlies truly need from the position this year is some solid defense and perimeter shooting, both of which can be provided by these two young players. If they can chip in 4-6 assists and 6-8 rebounds a night combined too, then things will definitely be looking up in the Bluff City.

Previewing the Small Forwards

by Chip Crain

Yesterday we tackled the position with the most competition and controversy swirling around it -- the Point Guards. Today we move to the one position where there is absolutely no argument about who will be starting and garnering the highest share of playing time -- Small Forward.

Why is this blog titled Previewing the Small Forwards? Shouldn't it be Previewing the Small Forward? Like in singular not plural? I mean does anyone feel the Grizzlies have a 2nd Small Forward on the team?

That question sums up the issue at small forward on the Grizzlies. When Mike Miller was sent to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo, not only did Memphis sacrifice their starting SG, but also their backup SF. Mayo can do a lot of things, but playing the 3 isn't likely to be one of them.

So Memphis has a player capable of being a star in this league but nothing behind him worth mentioning (although I will mention the candidates later anyway). The best case scenario for the Grizzlies is Rudy to average 38-40 mpg and make the next step forward along the path to becoming a major player in this league. The worst case scenario is an early season injury that prevents him from playing most of the year.

Please pretend I never even wrote that last sentence.

The Players:

Rudy Gay - What more needs to be said about the best player left on the Grizzlies team after the purge that began in January? Rudy can do it all. He can score 20 ppg, he can run, he can jump over any player in the league and still has legitimate three point range on his shot. What hasn't Rudy shown he can do? Well ball control has always been a problem for Rudy. He has freakishly long arms that make it difficult to prevent smaller players from harassing his dribble. He has been suspect on defense but that could easily be more the result of questionable coaching since he seems to have the fundamentals down. His rebounding is weak for a small forward. Finally passing is a weakness in Rudy's game. It has been argued that there weren't many other options for Rudy to pass to last year but he did have other options. At least compared to this season. Rudy has become the focal point for defenses to stop. His passing has to improve to really achieve the greatness predicted for him. Great players improve those around him. The easiest way to accomplish that is to share the rock with your open teammates.

Quinton Ross - Quinton Ross was signed to a last second contract with the Grizzlies apparently to provide Rudy Gay at least minimal minutes of rest this year. Quinton has the reputation of being a defensive specialist on the perimeter. He can and has guarded everyone from Manu Ginobili to Allen Iverson to Tony Parker and has had success against all of them. Ross could see minutes as shooting guard as well but that is unlikely with the logjam of players available for Iavaroni. If Ross plays well then possibly that would give the Grizzlies more options in playing Rudy Gay at PF however.

Greg Buckner - If there is a player on this team that will become best friends with Kevin O'Neill it should be Greg Buckner. He is the epitome of a team player. Buckner is the type of player other players don't enjoy facing up against. He's scrappy and tough and can play defense. The problem with Buckner has always been the other side of the court. The 9 year veteran out of Clemson has never cracked 7 ppg and in today's game that simply isn't good enough. The days of the one dimensional player are gone. In limited minutes Buckner may be able to get by as strictly a defensive specialist but at 6-4 he will struggle in that role against taller SF's in the league. Buckner's main contribution may come on the practice court as he shows the young players what it takes in effort to make it in this league. Veteran leadership is needed on this team and possibly Buckner could be the guy to provide it.

Marko Jaric - I know. I put Marko down as a possibility at every position but I swear I am stopping now. At least I hope I am stopping now because this is about as far as I can go with Jaric. At 6-7 Marko has the size to compete with backup SF's in the league and with his 3 pt shooting and passing ability he could really open up lanes for the slashers and big men on the team. He won't ever be a physical player however so you can forget banging underneath or grabbing rebounds as skills he brings to the position. His foot speed is a liability in the backcourt but is adequate for the SF position as well.

Antoine Walker - Okay. Stop laughing. I realize that the Shimmy Shaker is 31 and hasn't played the 3 spot adequately since his Celtic days and even then was questionable as a 3 but we are only talking about 10-12 minutes most nights and against backup players. Walker can give people fits in that time frame. He has 3 pt range and can rebound extremely well. Sure his foot speed is weak but are there many players coming off the bench in the NBA that won't have just as much trouble stopping Toine as Toine will have stopping them? Memphis won't be running with Walker at the 3 very often but that isn't all bad with the half-court scorers the team possesses. When motivated Walker has the type of personality that can motivate teammates to play better and Walker has millions of reasons to be motivated this season. Expiring contracts can have that type of effect on players.

CONCLUSION: It really isn't that difficult to see what the Grizzlies need this season from Rudy. He has to lead the team in scoring and he has to be one of two players to lead the team in minutes played for the season. It would be great for the team if Rudy also raised his rebounding number to 6+ a game and his assists went up to about 3 a game. Neither of these numbers is unreasonable by the way. If Rudy goes down to injury, even for a few weeks, there is nothing the Grizzlies could do to replace his production. Imagine if the Cavs lost LeBron. He's that important to this team. The big difference for the future is that unlike the Cavs the cupboard isn't empty behind Rudy for long. Mayo, Conley and the rest of the baby Grizzlies will come to Rudy's rescue very soon. I just don't believe it will be this year.

Because I'm Just Crazy Enough To Think It Could Work

Most of the news surrounding the Grizzlies right now is about Darrell Arthur's mistake in a hotel room or the possibility of Zach Randolph donning Beale Street Blue this season. I think that we've covered the first one pretty well, and I don't even want to think about the second one. But the potential Randolph deal did get me to thinking about another issue facing the Grizzlies. If they deal Darko & Marko to NYC, then the Grizzlies have 2 rookie C's, 4 PF's and still no backup SF (unless Greg Buckner plays out of position). That will also mean that the Grizzlies go from 13 players under contract down to 12. That opens up some possibilities.

I thought about moving Antoine Walker over to backup SF, given that he has played that position quite a lot over his career. But even then, the team will still have to sign at least one more player -- probably two. Obviously, one of those players will have to be a veteran center, given that Marc Gasol and Hamed Haddadi have played a combined ZERO minutes in the NBA so far. Any number of minimum contract stiffs could fill the bill of being the backup center, so I'm not too concerned about who they sign for that spot. But what about that other potential signing? Who should they take there?

The depth chart would look something like this if that trade took place:

PG - Conley, Lowry
SG - Mayo, Crittenton, Buckner
SF - Gay, Walker
PF - Randolph, Warrick, Arthur
C - Gasol, Haddadi, Token Stiff

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm comfortable that our PG spot is fine, given that Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt all have played that position in their recent careers. I'd love to use that last spot to shore up the SG/SF positions though. This is especially true if 'Toine comes in less than 100% motivated this season. But who could we sign for a low level contract (a given with this regime) that could actually contribute if called upon? I know of a guy that's sitting out there in free agency, just waiting for his phone to ring. A player who is already familiar with the nuances of Memphis.

You know him, you love him, so let's welcome him back to the Bluff City..........Mister Bonzi Wells!


Before you start sputtering about his past with the Grizzlies, hear me out. His play on the court was rarely ever an issue -- his conflicts with the head coach (Mike Fratello) were a problem. No more Czar = no more problem. He was a fan favorite and Heisley absolutely loved the guy while he was here. He can play both swingman positions and is a veteran who can contribute, and could even start if called upon. People want a guy who won't back down, plays with heart and wants to win every single night? Here's your guy. Am I worried about having Bonzi, Zach and 'Toine in the same locker room with all these young, impressionable players? I'm scared to death of it. But if we're going to bring Z-Bo in, then why not go all out and find another guy who is long on talent and has a questionable head? Especially if that guy might bring a few more fans back to the FedEx Forum who think of him fondly.

The contract that he signed with Houston two years ago was for 2 years and $4.5 million. Anyone else think that kind of deal would fit in with the fiscally responsible Three Year Plan? Yeah, me too. Let's be honest - Zach Randolph isn't going to bring in more fans than having Adriana Lima in the stands would have. But bringing back Bonzi might -- especially if it rekindles memories of postseasons trips in the minds of fans who are looking for something to believe in.


Bring. Back. Bonzi.

Trade Talk

Since the Josh Smith offer sheet was matched by the Atlanta Hawks, it seems that most of the talk surrounding the Grizzlies making another acquisition this offseason has centered on potential trades. Plenty of names have been bandied about on the Grizzlies Fan Boards and on websites/news papers around the country. Let's take a look at who has already been mentioned and find a few more that might prove to be interesting.

Zach Randolph for Darko Milicic/??? - Ron Tillery mentioned him in a brief, one-line comment after the Hawks matched the offer sheet. It caused quite a stir among Grizzlies and Knicks fans when they saw it, but now that comment has been removed from the online piece where it originally appeared (which is why I don't see the point in linking to it).

My thoughts on Z-Bo are quite simple. He's a talented PF and he's a knucklehead. Yes, he puts up good stats, but he doesn't play well in a team concept, plays no defense and is a certifiable black hole on offense. He's a cancer -- and I don't throw that term around loosely. On top of all that, he has the exact same contract that Pau Gasol has, which the organization and its fanbase were so eager to get rid of. He's a glorified role player with a max-level contract, which means that the Grizzlies shouldn't consider him for any reason.

Matt Harpring/Jarron Collins for Darko Milicic - This one popped up in the Salt Lake Tribune column that we linked to earlier in the week, as Steve Luhm answered a reader's question about Darko's ability to fit in with the Jazz. This isn't even a real rumor, as Luhm even labels it a "hypothetical trade" in the column, but it is interesting. On the one hand, Harpring does give the Grizzlies that veteran backup SF that they desperately need behind Rudy Gay. On the other, Jarron Collins is known as "Collins the Lesser" among my circle of NBA friends. That's right, he's not even as good as his brother, Jason, who we fans had the pleasure of seeing last year. Not to mention that this would thrust Marc Gasol directly into the starting lineup when we don't have a clue as to how well he's going to adjust to the NBA. I don't have a problem with taking a calculated risk (Rudy for Shane, Mayo for Love, Miller for Gooden), but this seems to be a needless chance to take just to acquire a SF who will probably only be needed for 10-13 mpg this year. I think that Darko has more value than this trade.

Keith Bogans/Draft Pick for Javaris Crittenton - I've had a lot of back and forth with an Orlando Magic fan about this trade rumor. I think that it could be a win-win for both teams, but it all hinges on the draft pick. I don't think that a 2nd rounder is enough for Memphis to do the deal, but a protected 1st rounder probably would. I like Keith Bogans game a lot. He's a solid defender who can play the SG and SF positions off the bench. He's only 28, which means that he could still fit into the Three Year Plan if they re-sign him beyond the current deal. I'd much rather send them Kyle Lowry (PG only) in this deal than JCritt (combo guard capable), but getting another 1st rounder and thinning out the "young guard" group would probably prove to be worthwhile.

Al Harrington/Marco Belinelli for Antoine Walker/Hakim Warrick/Kyle Lowry - A Warriors fan who was high on Hak/Lowry sent this one to me the other day. Ummm....where do I sign? I'm not a huge fan of Harrington's SF game at the PF spot, but he has the same price tag as Walker for this year and twice the production. Belinelli (Summer League All-Star!) would be solid as a backup SG and might actually get some playing time in Memphis -- something he hasn't gotten much of in Oakland. They are both in the last year of their current contracts, so if they don't work out, then you don't have to keep them. Honestly, this deal feels like something you should have to wear a ski mask to pull off.

Reggie Evans/Willie Green for Hakim Warrick/Javaris Crittenton/Greg Buckner - The Grizzlies get a proven frontcourt presence in Evans, while the Sixers get some instant offense off the bench behind Elton Brand in Hak. Willie Green is a solid guard off the bench who started for Philly much of last year. Critt and Buckner would be quality depth for a team that has dreams of winning the Eastern Conference next year. Evans (28) and Green (27) are both young enough to qualify for the Three Year Plan, too.

Those are the ones that I'm aware of at the moment, although I'm hearing rumblings of Andrei Kirilenko being available, too. AK-47 is a tremendous talent and was always better as a PF than the SF role he has assumed since the arrival of Boozer/Okur. But, he also has the same max contract that Gasol and Randolph have, which means that it would be counter-productive to trade for him at this juncture. That's really too bad, since the combination of him with Darko/Marc in the frontcourt backing up Conley/Mayo/Lowry in the backcourt would display a fearsome level of defense. C'est la vie.

Be sure to either email us any rumors that you've heard of recently or just leave them in the comments.

The 'Toine Factor

While there has been a ton of hours logged discussing the various aspects of the draft night trade that saw O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love change franchises, most of it has focused on those two players and sharpshooter Mike Miller while ignoring the other pieces in the transaction. Jason Collins should be a solid backup for the T'Wolves, while Brian Cardinal fills the need for a "token white guy" at the end of the bench. Just kidding BC -- you know we love you and think that you'll make a great coach after your playing career is over. For Memphis, Greg Buckner will supply solid defense on the perimeter and Marko Jaric will bring one of the hottest women on the planet to our fair city. What's that? Jaric can play 3 positions? Bonus!!!

The one guy that seems to have slipped through the cracks as nothing more than a throw-in salary that will likely be unceremoniously bought out and left to the winds of free agency is Antoine Devon Walker.

You remember this guy, right? Talented, easy-going, fun-loving.....and in shape. Now just think about what could happen if he showed up in Memphis with that same mindset, that same hunger and desire to win. A tantalizing dream, isn't it? Not only could he start at PF, but he could also be a veteran influence who knows how to win on the biggest of stages. That would be quite a coup for a team full of young players that need someone who has already been through the pains and struggles of climbing the mountain. I'm not saying that 'Toine will turn into a shining example of leadership overnight, but if he wants to play in the NBA beyond this season, then he's going to have to prove to the league that he hasn't become satisfied since winning a title with the Miami Heat in 2006.

Of course, perhaps he has reached the top of the mountain and feels that there is nothing left to accomplish. Even people who know him well have hinted that Walker isn't focused on playing and just seems to be going through the motions -- coasting, as it were.

The reason I bring this up is because Walker's mindset and approach to this season will probably determine who truly got the better end of the trade. Minnesota received two starters (Miller and Love) and one contributing role player (Collins). Memphis got one starter (Mayo), two contributing role players (Buckner and Jaric) and one big question mark (Walker). If that question mark becomes an exclamation point, then the Grizzlies can confidently say that they "won" the trade. It's your move 'Toine -- will it be a Shimmy or a slow dance?

Breaking News: O.J. Mayo to Memphis

Just came across ESPN.

Memphis gets:

O.J. Mayo
Marko Jaric
Antoine Walker
Greg Buckner

Minnesota gets:

Kevin Love
Mike Miller
Brian Cardinal
Jason Collins

Nothing confirmed, but we will keep you updated.

This could be a precursor to a second move that nets Michael Beasley. Perhaps Mayo/Warrick for Beasley/Banks?

Also, I would expect that if this deal goes through that Walker is bought out, as might Buckner, given that neither of their contracts are guaranteed beyond the 2008/09 season according to ESPN, although Buckner's perimeter defense could be very useful.

Update: According to the Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery, the draft rights to Donte Greene have been sent to Portland for the draft rights to Darrell Arthur. This will help fill that hole at PF. According to Chris Vernon, Arthur was ranked at #11 on the Grizzlies' draft board.

As of right now, the Mayo trade is simply pending league approval, which means that it should be a done deal.

Update 2: Chris Herrington is reporting that a 2nd deal is being finalized that doesn't involve Michael Beasley. No other details at this point.

Update 3: Herrington now says that he misunderstood and that there isn't a 2nd deal. Good night everyone!

Chip's Take: Chad Ford said that Minnesota wins the trade in the short run but in a few years you may look back and say that it was a no-brainer for Memphis.

I have to agree with that if we can keep Mayo happy here. O.J. is the type of player Memphis has always desired. He is a big name player who won't choke under pressure. Combine that with Arthur and Gasol and you have dramatically increased the talent at three positions. If Antoine Walker decides to take advantage of his opportunity and play like he is capable of playing then he could be a real steal in this trade as well. Memphis may also be moving Mayo to go for Beasley which should be very interesting if true. Remember that Miami wanted Rudy Gay before plus the #5 pick so don't get your hopes up too high that Beasley will be here when you wake up in the morning.

Jaric is not a big help but he should be able to help mature the young guns in the backcourt. Bucker brings defensive perimeter help and could be the closest thing Memphis has to a shut down defender. The big question mark is how well the veterans act. If Jaric and Buckner don't provide leadership this team could implode with the egos in the locker room. If they take a roll in being leaders then it could be a great deal. The team won't make the playoffs this season and maybe not next year but the team has made a bold statement that they are wanting to be players again.

If Antoine Walker is bought out then that should ease some of my concerns about team chemistry too. By the way, I think this proves that Heisley was telling the truth when he said there was no reason to believe he wouldn't spend money to improve the team. A buyout of Walker's contract won't come cheaply but it is probably the smart move.