Previewing the Power Forwards

By Joshua Coleman

With the Point Guards, there appears to be a defined rotation. For the Small Forwards, there is The Man and everyone else. Even for the Shooting Guards, we have a good idea of who is going to play and how much. But for the Power Forwards...the phrase "total crapshoot" comes to mind.

Hakim Warrick is the presumed starter, Darrell Arthur is the rookie, Antoine Walker is the mercurial veteran in a contract year and Darko Milicic is the enigma. Marc Iavaroni included Rudy Gay in that group when we interviewed him, but after this comment that Chris Herrington posted, I'm not very confident that we'll see #22 manning the 4 anytime soon:

“We’ve got a lot of [power] forwards on this team, and I’ve told them: If I have to play your position, something is wrong.”

Really, the PF position is one of the glass being both half full and half empty. Guys are either good on offense (Warrick and Walker) or on defense (Darko) or talented, but completely unproven and inexperienced (Arthur). No one appears to be a complete package in the mold of presumed starters Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. That means that any of those four players could garner significant playing time this season. That is both intriguing and maddening at the same time.

The Players:

Hakim Warrick - The Syracuse product is well known by Grizzlies fans as he enters the 4th year of his career. He has proven to be a skilled scorer with his solid mid-range game and impressive dunking ability. He's an average rebounder for his size, nabbing 7 boards a game as a starter last year and has extended his range out to 18 feet on his jumper. The areas of his game that prevent Hak from being a surefire starter in the NBA are his complete lack of passing skills and his poor defense. I know that I get accused of picking on him from time to time, but Javaris Crittenton played 61% fewer minutes than Hak last year (678 total minutes to 1754 minutes) and Critt only fell two assists shy of matching Warrick's total for the year, which was 53. I understand that PF's aren't expected to pass the ball as much as guards, but most starters at least average a dime per game. Even Darko Milicic averaged a higher number than that while playing with an injured thumb the majority of the season. For Hakim to remain a starter under the new defensive-minded coaching staff, he's going to have to start doing more than just scoring and rebounding.

Darrell Arthur - In assessing Arthur's game, he actually reminds me quite a bit of the aforementioned Hakim Warrick. An athletic forward who excels from mid-range and might not be quite big enough to bang with the more physical post players in the league. The one thing that separates him from Warrick so far is his shot-blocking, as he has averaged better than one per game through two years at Kansas. Enough has already been written and said about his blunder at the Rookie Transition program, so I won't waste any more in this space. I don't see DA making a big impact this year, but he might show enough to make a case as the future starting PF, which could make Hak trade bait by January/February.

Antoine Walker - What is there left to say about 'Toine at this point? He's a good rebounder and he loves to shoot -- especially from the perimeter. Next!

Ok, just kidding. There are two things that make me think that Walker could actually be an asset this year: money and more money. That's right, the Master of the Shimmy will make $9 million this year and knows that there won't be any teams that will pick up his option for next season, so he's basically in a contract year. That means that he will give more than the 60% effort (since I'm being generous) he gave the T'Pups last year. If that's the case, then he could turn out to be a valuable trade piece at the deadline. His range and his rebounding ability will also be assets if he still has anything left in the tank. The question is still what does he have left in the tank.

Darko Milicic - Finally, a power forward with some power in his game. If there is one thing I know about Darko from last year, it is this: He is better than he exhibited after he injured his thumb. I know that he will never be the player that Joe Dumars (and Chad Ford, God bless him) envisioned when he was selected #2 overall, but I definitely think that he can be a solid rotational player for a playoff contender. Last year he displayed the ability to be an effective defender, especially against low post titans like Tim Duncan and Yao Ming. In fact, I haven't seen anyone frustrate Duncan so much since Rasheed Wallace got inside his head during the first part of the 2005 Finals. Fans of the Mad Serbian have told me repeatedly that Darko is best utilized as a PF. It appears that we will now see how true that is. The Dark One will need to find something other than the lefty hook shot in his arsenal if he plans on surviving the season without being mercilessly booed. Shaving off the sparse mustache he sported for much of last year wouldn't hurt either.

CONCLUSION: I don't know if Warrick or Walker will be the starter at the beginning of the season, or if Darko will be the closer. Darrell Arthur showed lottery level talent in college, but still fell all the way to #28 in the draft for unexplained reasons. This motley crew undoubtedly makes up the weakest position for the Grizzlies this year, but if all of them will commit to defense and rebounding, then two of them might survive until training camp next year. In any case, I don't believe that any of them will enter this season with preconceived notions about how much playing time they will be given, nor should they. This position is in need of serious help as the Grizzlies move forward.

Shot in the Darko

By Kirk


After a years performance in the Darko-Grizzlies era, many still believe that THIS is the year Darko will truly live up to the hype, and become the player that many experts predicted him to become.

After a paltry season as a Grizz "rookie", where he posted a stat line of 7.2 points/6.1 rebounds/0.8 assists/1.6 bpg in 24 mpg, is Darko poised to "breakout" this season?

There were rumors swirling over the past few weeks of a deal proposing a Darko/Marko for Zach Randolph swap. Now, thankfully, this deal appears to be as dead as Pauly Shore's acting career.

There has been talk of Darko possibly getting extensive minutes at the PF position this year, courtesy of our man Chip here at 3ShadesofBlue and his interview with head coach Mark Iavaroni.

On that note, would Darko be able to produce at the 4 spot? Many experts pegged him as a player who would never be a true NBA center, and that his natural NBA position was better suited at the 4, rather than the 5. Having played center for the Grizzlies last year, and having watched many excruciating performances at said position, I am beginning to believe these so called "experts".

The main knock on Darko in the past (other than being a bust) is that he has the confidence level of a pimple faced 9th grader asking the head cheerleader to prom. There were many games in which Darko would start early, hit some quick shots, get into a flow, and then seemingly disappear from the game. The disappearance usually coincided with either missing a few straight shots, or when getting a breather. Darko never seemed to close a game out on a positive note, rather he seemed to duck away when crunch time arrived. Sometimes he would disappear so quickly that you would have had an easier time finding the remains of Jimmy Hoffa.

With this being said, and the jury is still out, this IS Darko's year to prove his worthiness or unworthiness of being an NBA player. There is NO Pau this year, virtually noone standing in his own way. Darko controls his own destiny. He is the veteran big man this year, with 3 rookies in Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi, and Darrell Arthur looking to him as the "man". The only other big man veteran we have is a #2 pencil...........I mean Hakim Warrick.

Lets face it, Darko will most likely never "light it up", but will he finally break free from the stigma surrounding him? Can he prove the naysayers wrong? Can he finally string together performances to prove otherwise?

The judge shall reserve sentencing until all evidence is in, and I am able to weigh said evidence.

Until then, court dismissed.


Usually good travel deals include hotels as well as facility of car rental.

Moving Forward with the Forwards

(Photo by Getty Images)

Matt over at Hardwood Paroxysm emailed me last week to ask me a simple question that has been bandied about on the message boards for quite some time. That question was this: Why not take a stab at Josh Smith? He didn't use my response in his post about the matter, which is great for me, because now I can use it here.

The Grizzlies should probably at least make a cursory call in to his agent for two reasons:

1) To drive up the price that the Hawks eventually sign him for. Nothing better than making other teams overpay for their own free agents.
2) To make the Grizzlies fanbase believe that they might have intended to spend some of their cap space this offseason, even though they have said repeatedly that they were targeting the 2009 offseason to spend it.

Now, as far as them making a legitimate play for him -- this is problematic. Since he's a restricted free agent, the Grizzlies would have had to offer him more than what the Hawks were willing to match in order to actually acquire him. Because they signed Marc Gasol already, the Grizzlies only have about $10 million in cap space for the first year of that contract, which Atlanta would almost surely match.

I don't believe that Josh Smith (or any of this year's young free agents) are max-level players, but that's the kind of contract offer it would probably take to pry any of them away from their current teams. While I'm not convinced that the trio of Antoine Walker, Hakim Warrick and Darrell Arthur will be enough to cover the Grizzlies at the PF position this year, I don't see any reason why they should overpay for Smith either, given that this team is still 2 years away from making any real noise no matter who they choose to go out and sign this offseason.

Besides, there is another possibility that most people haven't discussed. What if Smith (and Igoudala, Okafor, Deng, et al.) decide to just sign the qualifying offer and test the market next summer as unrestricted free agents? Then the market truly sets their real value, rather than having to haggle with an agent, only to see their current team match that offer, leaving you with nothing to show after putting your cap space on hold for a week. This is why the Grizzlies didn't sign Andres Nocioni or Anderson Varejao to offer sheets last year, despite serious interest in them, and instead went after Darko Milicic for a reasonable sum.

Restricted free agency is almost always a fool's gambit. You either overpay, get suckered into a bad deal via trade (Kenyon Martin to the Nuggets, Joe Johnson to the Hawks) or simply waste your time (Corey Maggette retained by Clippers after signing offer sheet with Jazz). The NBA has designed it to favor the "home team" and they certainly succeeded in that regard.

On top of that, even though the Grizzlies would be more exciting and talented if they were able to sign Smith, would they be able to compete with the Lakers, Hornets and Trail Blazers over the next few years with that core group?

Now, as I stated in the email entry above, I'm not sure that I buy into the idea of entering the season with a trio of Warrick, Walker and Arthur, but I know that I don't want Josh Smith as our starting PF for the next 4-5 seasons. I'm a big fan of Smith's style of play...as a SF. That's his natural position, after all. Last time I checked, we already had a decent small forward by the name of Rudy Gay. He needs a backup, but I don't think that's what the fans have in mind when they suggest signing Smith.

I know that a lot of Grizzlies fans (all 11 of us) get a little upset when they consider the ramifications of letting everyone know that we have no intention of making a major free agent signing this offseason, despite the fact that we are the only team with any significant cap space. It sends out a message that seems to plainly say, "we're not going to try to compete this season". I mean, that's what all the media pundits are reporting across the board anyways. I've seen that phrase, or some version of it, on no less than 5 different major media websites in the past week. But just because the Grizzlies aren't throwing cash around simply because they have it, doesn't mean that they aren't being competitive. I'm not saying that I'm on board with what the Three Year Plan represents initially, but given that this is the stated direction of the front office, we might as well accept that and look at moves that fit in with that direction.

Here is my suggestion -- and one that I believe we will be able to see in action over the next two seasons. Why don't we see what we have first? As I noted yesterday, we have two young players at 4 of the 5 positions, with SF being the only one that is without competition for the next season. Conley vs. Lowry, Mayo vs. Crittenton, Warrick vs. Arthur and Gasol vs. Milicic. What if Darrell Arthur -- a consensus Top 15 pick on nearly every reputable mock draft in existence -- turns out to be worthy of that designation, rather than displaying the talent level of where he was actually selected near the end of the 1st round? In other words, what if Arthur proves to be talented enough to be the starting PF as early as next season? Wouldn't that negate the need to go out and sign a player like Josh Smith this offseason? That should be a very realistic possibility, given that he was ranked #14 overall on the Grizzlies draft board and the #4 PF by DraftExpress.


Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

In this piece on SI.com, Chris Mannix makes it clear that the Grizzlies front office has very high hopes for Arthur and loves the fact that he has come in with a tremendous chip on his shoulder due to the way that his draft stock plummeted needlessly, taking him from the back end of the lottery to the very end of the 1st round. After all, If D.A. can come in and use that motivation as a positive force (like Paul Pierce did regarding his draft position), then the rest of the league probably won't be laughing at the Memphis Grizzlies much longer. Check back tomorrow for what that future might look like.

Do the Grizzlies Have 'Big' Problems

It wasn't so long ago that the over-loaded front line drew as much criticism from fans as the current over-loaded point guard position does now. Remember when Memphis had Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, Bo Outlaw, Lorenzen Wright, Shane Battier, James Posey and Theron Smith all on the roster? Bonzi and Miller were really forwards who were forced into guard roles by the shear number of front line players.

Now Memphis has a dirth of frontline players and those they have are not experienced. Rudy Gay is entering his 3rd season and started a grand total of 124 games in his career. Hakim is beginning his 4th season and started a grand total of 75 games. Darko is the most experienced returning player and in his 5 years in the league he has started a grand total of 83 games in his career. Sure Antoine Walker has experience but he'll be 32 this coming season and hasn't player well since winning his ring in Miami three seasons ago. Does anyone feel confident relying on the 'shimmy shaker' to help educate our young players in how to be professionals?

Then we come to the primary backups at PF and C. Two rookies. One, Darrell Arthur, fell in the draft to 27th because of questionable health and heart. No there is nothing physically wrong with Darrell's heart. It just seems he doesn't bring it to the game every night. The other, Marc Gasol, was a fat kid who liked to take 3 pt shots when he left Memphis to return to Spain. This past season he was in the top 5 of the Spanish league in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Only one other player in the Spanish leagues accomplished this feat...Pops Mensah Bonsu.

WHO? Pops was on the GW team that shocked the world in the NCAA tournament a few years ago. Nice effort guy and he has a high basketball IQ but hardly someone I would say is going to be an impact player in the NBA. Doesn't that seem to trivialize Gasol's accomplishment a bit?

So the Grizzlies have a combined 283 games started total among all of their front line players not named Walker. That is a little bit more than three seasons of games (246). Antoine does have 707 career starts but only 16 in the last 2 years.

So do the Grizzlie have a big man problem? Perhaps they do. If Arthur and Gasol don't perform, if Darko doesn't improve, if Walker comes in out of shape and with a negative attitude, if Rudy doesn't continue rounding out a complete game to go with his fantastic offensive one and Warrick continues being a black hole on both sides of the court (can't defend anyone and won't pass the ball) then Memphis could be in big trouble.

Final Position Battles - Part 2

Marc Iavaroni has made it clear that he wants to run a basic 8 man rotation this season with a possible 9th player from time to time. He also made it clear that the players involved were not going to change from game to game, but be a more consistent rotation. The starters are Damon Stoudamire, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift. The backup PG is Kyle Lowry.

Yesterday I discussed the final position battle at the wing position. Today I want to look at the backup interior player battle.

This battle was rumored to be happening almost from the moment Darko Milicic was signed as a free agent on July 16th. It was just assumed that Hakim and Darko would be fighting for the starting role next to Gasol and not the backup role. Hakim was coming off a very encouraging sophomore season where he averaged 12.7 ppg on 52.4% shooting while grabbing 5.1 rpg over 26.2 mpg and 43 games started. In April he picked up the pace to 15.3 ppg and 7.8 rpg. Milicic averaged 8.0 ppg and 5.5 rpg in a reserve role withe the Orlando Magic but finished last season with a strong showing of his own in an impressive playoff series against Detroit. He averaged 12.3 ppg on 58.8% shooting in 28.8 mpg. His signing seemed to set up a duel between both players.

It hasn't worked out that way yet. Stromile Swift has easily beaten out both players for the starting role leaving these two young men to fight it out for the last rotation spot. What do each bring to the table?

Why it should be Hakim: Hakim brings offensive fire power off the bench. He's capable of scoring on both big and small forwards with an array of post moves and shocking jumping ability. He's more familiar with the games of the team's big players like Mike Miller and Pau Gasol having played with them for the last two seasons. His speed at the 4 makes the running game more productive.

Why it shouldn't be Hakim: Defense. While Hakim can't be stopped by most players he is equally inept at stopping anyone man on man. He isn't a great shot blocker either despite his leaping ability. He is a black hole on offense also. While difficult to stop individually his refusal to pass the ball often has him taking ill advised shots against double teams. Rebounding is also a problem for Hakim as he doesn't block out well and is too light to hold his position against most power forwards in the league.

Why it should be Darko: Darko is Chris Wallace's coup from the summer free agent period and having Iavaroni and Wallace hanging their hats on your hook isn't a bad reason right off the bat. Darko is a strong force defensively with an incredible ability to block shots. While not a great rebounder himself he does put his body on people allowing others to get the rebound. Paired with Stro or Gasol he is able to take the bulkier defensive assignments freeing the more athletic players to operate against less tiresome opponents. His range is nearly to the three point line freeing up space in the paint for others to operate. He is also an excellent passer for a big man.

Why it shouldn't be Darko: He seems lost in the system right now. Playing for his 3rd coach in 6 months has apparently made Darko cautious and one has to wonder about the emotional scars from his time in Detroit, the free agency debacle in Orlando and the outburst in Spain this summer. He has the propensity to get into foul trouble. The main reason against Darko is his lack of speed. Pairing him with Gasol would appear to make the Grizzlies a slower team than Iavaroni may prefer. His shot selection is also suspect in the half court game.

So who will win? I think it will start off being Darko. His size, defense and passing ability should more than compensate for his other deficiencies. His foul trouble will most likely be countered by the reality that Stro and Pau aren't prone to getting into foul trouble. Darko in a real sense has 24 minutes to use his six fouls.

This leaves Hakim in a precarious position. His option for next season has already been picked up but he is 4th on a 3 man depth chart. His potential and relatively inexpensive contract can be a nice chip to use in a trade scenario combined with someone else (say Damon Stoudamire or Mike Miller). He has never been an attitude problem in the past but this is an important season for Hakim and one has to wonder what will happen if he isn't a member of the regular rotation.

Don't forget the Grizzlies BLOG Party tonight at Jack Daniels Old #7. Spartacus and others will be sitting on the back side of the bar at the first table after the bar. Celebrities may be in attendance so feel free to bring a camera and get autographs!

Rank Me Please! 25 Power Forwards

You should know the rules by now.

Power Forwards

1. Tim Duncan - The Big Fundamental is the best PF to ever play the game in this blogger's humble opinon -- so who am I to put him anywhere other than the top spot?
2. Kevin Garnett - He's got two seasons to get a title in Beantown, so expect him to find a superhuman way to elevate his game to an even higher level...as unbelievable as that is to contemplate.
3. Dirk Nowitzki - Dirk Diggler is coming off an MVP season (deserved or not), but will need to display some leadership to climb these rankings and ascend to the top spot.
4. Carlos Boozer - Took a major step up last year in leading the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals and I don't see any reason that he'll decline this season. If anything, he might find a way to score more than the 20.9 ppg he averaged in 2006/07.
5. Pau Gasol - Consistency is his M.O., but his numbers will probably see an increase under Marc Iavaroni's uptempo system, as they did under Barone last year.
6. Shawn Marion - He might be unhappy in Phoenix, but with Amare Stoudemire coming off another knee surgery (minor or not), he'll continue to put up solid numbers in points and rebounds and great stats in steals and blocks. If you could run plays for him consistently, he'd be challenging for the Top 3.
7. Chris Bosh - I had to drop him because of his injured foot, although he is quickly elevating his game to the point of being worthy of Top 3 consideration. As a side note, the guys at #4 - #8 are all equal IMO as the 2nd tier of PF's in the league -- but I do have to assign them numbers.
8. Jermaine O'Neal - He didn't get traded to Los Angeles....yet. He'll keep putting up All-Star level numbers in Indiana as they figure out how to surround him with the talent needed to challenge for the Eastern Conference crown.
9. Gerald Wallace - With Sean May out for the year, look for the athletic freak to log most of the minutes at PF where he is a mismatch for everyone not named Shawn Marion.
10. Zach Randolph - His scoring might suffer slightly in the Big Apple, but he'll be able to pull down all the rebounds he wants alongside Eddy Curry. Now about that defense....
11. Lamar Odom - It seems that he's really trying to make things work alongside Kobe, so maybe he'll finally be allowed to improvise rather than deferring to the Mamba so often.
12. Antawn Jamison - I believe he'll take a backseat to Arenas and Butler, which means that his scoring will drop as his rebounds increase -- especially in light of the news that Etan Thomas will have heart surgery.
13. Al Jefferson - He could struggle as "The Man" in Minnesota, but I think he'll shine instead, as he continues to develop into one of the most dangerous low-post threats in the game.
14. Chris Wilcox - I'm anxious to see what he'll do without two All-Stars taking the majority of shots in Seattle. My hunch is he'll average 15 and 10 this year.
15. LaMarcus Aldridge - With Oden out, Aldridge will likely be paired with Joel "White Mutombo" Przyzbilla most of the year. That means the low-post scoring load will fall upon his shoulders.
16. David West - He's not flashy or spectacular, but somehow he continues to pile up solid numbers in sneaky fashion. As long as Tyson Chandler remains an offensive afterthought, West will get to pop mid-range jumpers to his heart's content.
17. Charlie Villanueva - He was inconsistent through an injury-plagued year last season, but was showing bursts of incredible levels of improvement when he did get to stay in games.
18. Nene - I think he'll see his minutes get reduced by the return of Kenyon Martin, but he's still the better overall player of the two, so he should still receive the lion's share.
19. Udonis Haslem - He might get traded...he might not. Either way, he's capable of scoring a lot more than has been required of him while playing alongside D-Wade, Shaq and 'Toine in South Beach to this point.
20. Al Harrington - He's one of many who will be asked to shoulder an additional scoring burden after the trade that sent Jason Richardson to the opposit coast. Is he up to the challenge?
21. David Lee - If he doesnt' get to see the floor for at least 25 mpg, David Stern should step in and force the Knicks to trade him to someone with a clue how valuable he truly is.
22. Boris Diaw - He's a headache to gameplan for as he is an impossible matchup for nearly everyone not named Sheed or KG.
23. Antonio McDyess - Word outta Detroit is that he'll start at PF with Sheed moving over to play Center this year. Should be interesting, to say the least.
24. Luis Scola - I wouldn't be surprised if he warrants being ranked 10 spots higher by the end of the season.
25. Tim Thomas - With Elton Brand out, he'll have to elevate his game. Will he shy away from the added responsibility?

Others who might be Top 25 worthy: Hakim Warrick, Al Horford, Al Thornton, Tyrus Thomas, Jason Maxiell