If...

With the greatest respect to Rudyard Kipling and his famous poem 'If' I present...

the Grizzlies If of 2008.

If Conley can keep his head when all the fans about him
Are losing theirs and blaming it on him,
If Gasol can trust himself when all the fans doubt him
But understand their doubting too,

If Darko can compete and not be slowed by the horrible schedule,
Or being booed, not lower his head,
Or being hated, not give way to pouting,
And yet don't get too worried Or get down on himself:

If JCritt can dream--and not make dreams his master,
If Lowry can pass--and not yet not make passing his aim;
If the Rookies accept both wins and losses
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If Iavaroni can bear to hear the truth he's spoken
Twisted by media types (including bloggers),
And keep the positive message in front of the team

If Mayo can make one shot at the end of a game
And not let previous failures scare him away,
And if he misses, start again believing in himself
And never breath a word about the miss;

If Hakim can force his heart and nerve and sinew
To defend long after he thinks he has to,
And to hold onto the rebound when there is nothing left in him
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If Adriana Lima can talk with crowds and sign autographs,
And the team can finally beat the Kings in that Damn Arco Arena,
If neither ugly fans nor loving friends can affect Rudy's focus,
If the team knows it can count with him, but not too much,

If the Grizzlies can fill the unforgiving shot clock
With 24 seconds' worth of passionate defense,
Yours is Memphis and everything that's in it,

And--which is more--you'll be winners, my boys!

What Will Mike Be Like?

We've all heard the phrase 'If I could be like Mike.' Well we at 3 Shades of Blue decided to take a more local look at that phrase and to think 'what will Mike be like' this season?

This topic was discussed on the Grizzlies message board but it seemed to devolve into a typical player fan arguement. I thought I would instead take a more objective view of the situation on the blog.

Does anyone remember how Rudy performed as a rookie and what his statistics were?

I looked it up to make sure I was remembering things correctly. Rudy played 2,103 minutes as a rookie despite fans being critical he wasn't getting enough playing time. I remember one poster in particular complaining about Barone every time he took Rudy out of a game because Tony had said in his first press conference that he would let Rudy 'die on the floor before taking him out.' Rudy averaged 27 mpg and 10.8 ppg while grabbing 4.5 rpg and 1.3 apg. Not bad numbers for a rookie SF.

Conley played on 1,381 minutes as a rookie yet the same poster who criticized the Grizzlies for not playing Rudy enough complained that the Grizzlies played Conley too much. Despite the fewer minutes played in total Conley also played fewer minutes per game (26.1) yet still averaged 9.4 ppg. 2.6 rpg and 4.2 apg. So after playing in fewer games and fewer minutes per game, Conley's numbers looked very similiar to Rudy's rookie season. One should also remember that Mike was a year younger than Rudy when he entered the leauge and two years younger in physical development.

Mike however has not been as dominating in his 2nd summer league as Rudy was in his his. Perhaps this is from the plethora of PG's or PG wanna-be's on the team. Perhaps this is from Conley not pushing the action enough (which could be an off-shoot of the terrible schedule the team has played). Perhaps this is do to the difficulty of playing the point. There is a big difference from initiating the offense and calling defensive sets at the point and simply trying to score from the small forward spot after all.

I don't know why but I haven't seen the progression yet from his rookie to sophomore seasons but all of the above reasons have had an effect. This doesn't mean Conley is incapable of improving according to his position in a similiar manner to Rudy's progression at Small Forward but it probably would require a move in the roster to free up Conley to play up to the mid 30's in minutes like Rudy did his sophomore season. That would involve a roster move to eliminate the person taking those extra 10 minutes a night of playing time. I am not suggesting the Grizzlies actually move Kyle Lowry. I just believe that the Grizzlies can't expect Conely to average fewer than 35 minutes a game and still see a dramatic improvement in his game.

Personally I don't believe Conley will make the same impact Rudy did in his second season. Conley has to contend with Kyle Lowry and OJ Mayo, both who are extremely talented and want his job, as well as the pressure of being a 20 yr old leader on the court. Rudy was a leader by scoring. Conley has to elevate the games of his teammates and this is much harder to achieve for a 20 yr old 2nd yr player. That is not to say that Conley will be a disappointment. I fully expect him to be a good contributor. I am just unsure he will establish himself among the elite players from his draft by the end of this season.

And that will probably leave some people disappointed.



Getting cheap airline tickets to the hawaiian airlines or even the aloha airlines is not a problem anymore, ever since northwest airline got way too expensive.

Reviewing Expectations and Predictions

Back before the season began, I predicted what each player's statistical output for the season would be. Let's take a look back and see just how far off I really was with the primary players, shall we? If you want to see how the role players did, I'll let you check out the link above and see for yourself.

Mike Miller

Prediction: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%

Actual: 35.3 MPG, 16.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, .502 FG%, .437 3PT%, .774 FT%

Then: Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.

Now: Miller shot better from the floor and rebounded more than I thought he would, but overall, I'm pretty pleased with my prediction, especially since I pointed at his efficiency increasing, which is exactly what happened.


Rudy Gay
Prediction: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%

Actual: 37 MPG, 20.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .462 FG%, .346 3PT%, .785 FT%

Then: Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Now: Well, I guess that "lowball" might not even cover it, although I don't think that anyone expected that big a leap in Rudy's scoring and efficiency -- including him. Again, I was very close on rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, but considerably off on scoring and shooting percentages.

Darko Milicic
Prediction: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Actual: 23.8 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, .438 FG%, .554 FT%

Then: Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Now: Darko didn't start slow at all, but an injury-plagued season derailed his efforts to show that he's not the bust that the media makes him out to be. On a per-minute basis, his stats are actually very close to what I predicted.

Juan Carlos Navarro
Prediction: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
Actual: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, .402 FG%, .361 3PT%, .849 FT%

Then: "La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Now: JCN was just as inconsistent as any other rookie, leading to shooting percentages that were much lower than I predicted. Looking back, I obviously went way too high on PPG for someone I was expecting to play less than half a game. I thought that Navarro have much more of a score-first mentality, but he was a more complete, all-around player than that.

Kyle Lowry
Prediction: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Actual: 25.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, .432 FG%, .257 3PT%, .698 FT%

Then: Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Now: Well, Kyle didn't start often (only 9 games), but he did manage to log a lot of MPG even still. Kyle wasn't the facillitator that I was expecting, which led to much lower assist numbers than I was anticipating. Lowry's shot improved mechanically through the season, even if his perimeter percentages don't reflect that. Also, I'm begging him to spend all summer with Mark Price after seeing those free throw numbers.

Hakim Warrick
Prediction: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Actual: 23.4 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .502 FG%, .704 FT%

Then: Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Now: Obviously, I didn't expect the team to trade Pau Gasol mid-season, which led Hak getting far more minutes than the prediction above. Even with that said, it is a little disconcerting that Warrick's assists, steals and blocks weren't any better with the additional playing time. Hak still doesn't play defense, pass or dribble very well.

Mike Conley
Prediction: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Actual: 26.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 0.8 SPG, .428 FG%, .330 3PT%, .732 FT%

Then: Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Now: Mark me down for being wrong on the reasoning, but right about the stats once again. Conley started 46 of the 53 games he appeared in, as the coaching staff felt that he was ready to assume that role as soon as Damon Stoudamire was released. Conley wasn't as disruptive on defense as I expected, but he was a better shooter/scorer than I anticipated.

As mentioned earlier, I can't make myself go through the Andre Browns and Casey Jacobsens on the roster, but I'm considering reviewing the players who are no longer on the team. If you're interested in reading more about Pau, Damon and Stro, drop a line in the Comments.

Predictions: 1st Home Win

This is a site dedicated to the fans of the Memphis Grizzlies. We talk Grizzlies (well write Grizzlies at least but we are working on a podcast), we think Grizz (I am sure some will argue that point as well) and on those glorious occassions when the Grizzlies win we cheer Grizzlies.

What I am curious about is when do most of our readers believe that the Grizzlies will win in Memphis? With an upcoming schedule of Houston, New Orleans and Seattle will the Grizzlies win in Memphis before Thanksgiving?

Give us your thoughts on when the 1st home win of the season will happen.

Links: Game Previews, Predictions, CA Coverage

Chris Herrington has his usual high-quality game preview up on Beyond the Arc.

If you feel like you still need an additional game preview -- although I think that Chip, Zack and guest star San Antonio Spurs blog Pounding the Rock have already covered everything -- then check out the preview from Philadelphia TV station 6abc.com.

Mississippi based Speck's Sports Blog also has a preview of tonight's home opener.

The Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, has his season predictions up on ESPN.com now and is surprisingly pro-Memphis, given his less-than-flattering comments in the past about the Grizzlies. He likes us to win 35+ games, make the playoffs and has nice things to say about Pau Gasol and Kyle Lowry. Is this Bizarro World or something? Or has all the Halloween candy affected him already?

Finally, there are a ton of new articles on the Commercial Appeal today....guess they were saving them up or something, since we had 8 today after one per day all through preseason. Click here for the direct link to the Grizzlies section.

If you live in the area, make sure you get out there and support the home team tonight as they take on the defending NBA champions.

Season Predictions

Western Conference Predicted Finish (regular season wins)-

Chip: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Houston, Utah, Denver, New Orleans, Portland, Golden St, Memphis, LA Lakers, Sacramento, LA Clippers, Minnesota, Seattle
Zack: San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Denver, Utah, Golden State, Memphis, New Orleans, L.A. Lakers, Portland, L.A. Clippers, Seattle, Minnesota, Sacramento
Spartacus: Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Utah, Houston, Denver, New Orleans, Golden State, L.A. Lakers, Memphis, Portland, Sacramento, Minnesota, Seattle, L.A. Clippers

Eastern Conference Predicted Finish (regular season wins)-
Chip: Chicago, Boston, Cleveland, Toronto, Miami, Washington, Detroit, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Indiana, Orlando, Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Charlotte
Zack: Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Washington, Cleveland, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Toronto, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Orlando, Charlotte, Philadelphia
Spartacus: Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Toronto, Orlando, Cleveland, New Jersey, Washington, Miami, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, New York, Indiana, Charlotte, Atlanta

Western Conference Playoffs-
Chip: Dallas over Portland, Phoenix over New Orleans, San Antonio over Denver, Utah over Houston, Dallas over Utah, San Antonio, Dallas over San Antonio
Zack: San Antonio over Memphis, Dallas over Golden State, Phoenix over Utah, Houston over Denver, San Antonio over Houston, Phoenix over Dallas, San Antonio over Phoenix
Spartacus: Phoenix over Golden St., Dallas over New Orleans, San Antonio over Denver, Houston over Utah, Phoenix over Houston, San Antonio over Dallas, San Antonio over Phoenix

Eastern Conference Playoffs-
Chip: Chicago over New Jersey, Boston over Detroit, Washington over Cleveland, Miami over Toronto, Chicago over Miami, Bston over Washington, Chicago over Boston
Zack: Boston over New Jersey, New York over Chicago, Detroit over Cleveland, Miami over Washington, Miami over Boston, Detroit over New York, Detroit over Miami
Spartacus: Chicago over Washington, Boston over New Jersey, Detroit over Cleveland, Orlando over Toronto, Chicago over Orlando, Detroit over Boston, Detroit over Chicago

NBA Finals-
Chip: Dallas over Chicago
Zack: San Antonio over Detroit
Spartacus: San Antonio over Detroit (much gnashing of teeth in Dallas, Phoenix, Boston and Chicago)

Rookie of the Year-
Chip: Kevin Durant
Zack: Kevin Durant (JC will be #2)
Spartacus: Al Horford

Most Valuable Player-
Chip: Kevin Garnett
Zack: Tony Parker
Spartacus: Amare Stoudemire

Sixthman of the Year-
Chip: Juan Carlos Navarro (this is a Grizzlies site after all)
Zack: Juan Carlos Navarro (if I didn't believe that Lowry would end up starting soon, he would be my choice)
Spartacus: Juan Carlos Navarro (because I believe he is the best candidate)

Coach of the Year-
Chip: Nate McMillian
Zack: Rick Adelman
Spartacus: Stan Van Gundy

Grizzlies Wins-
Chip: 33
Zack: 40
Spartacus: 37

You can check out Chris Herrington's predictions on Beyond the Arc, as well.

Predictions and Expectations

As we draw ever closer to the start of the 2007/08 NBA season, the Net is buzzing with predictions about how each team and player will perform this year. The Memphis Grizzlies Message Boards typically have a thread or two concerning this very subject and this year is no different with a thread dealing just with the newest imports already up and running. The predictions range from cautiously optimistic to wildly hopeful, which is to be expected with any fan base. So, in the spirit of that, I'll attempt to predict the stats for each member of the Grizzlies.

Pau Gasol
Career stats: 35.4 MPG, 18.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 BPG, .510 FG%, .724 FT%
2006/07 stats: 36.1 MPG, 20.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.1 BPG, .539 FG%, .748 FT%
Preseason stats: 23.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.75 BPG, .375 FG%, .765 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 38 MPG, 22.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.9 BPG, .530 FG%, .766 FT%

Pau should see an increase in scoring and assists, while the additional help provided by Darko and friends will cause a slight decrease in his rebounding numbers from his career high last season.

Mike Miller
Career stats: 31.8 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, .454 FG%, .398 3PT%, .771 FT%
2006/07 stats: 39.1 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, .460 FG%, .406 3PT%, .793 FT%
Preseason stats: 24.6 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, .382 FG%, .300 3PT%, .600 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%

Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.

Rudy Gay
Career Stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
2006/07 stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
Preseason stats: 30.3 MPG, 15.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.63 SPG, 1.75 BPG, .462 FG%, .385 3PT%, .871 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%

Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.

Damon Stoudamire
Career Stats: 34.3 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, .408 FG%, .358 3PT%, .834 FT%
2006/07 stats: 24.2 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, .391 FG%, .337 3PT%, .795 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.3 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, .465 FG%, .364 3PT%, .875 FT%
2007/08 projected stats (November/December): 18 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.1 SPG, .388 FG%, .350 3PT%, .844 FT%

Damon will be given about two months to prove that he is healthy and can contribute to a veteran team with playoff aspirations (or possibly even title dreams), at which point he will be traded to that team. Call it showcasing if you want, but I believe that this course of action is also necessary so that the Grizzlies don't just throw their young PG's to the wolves right off the bat.

Darko Milicic
Career stats: 15.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 BPG, .444 FG%, .610 FT%
2006/07 stats: 23.9 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.8 BPG, .454 FG%, .613 FT%
Preseason stats: 22.1 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, .351 FG%, .469 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%

Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.

Juan Carlos Navarro
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 24.1 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, .413 FG%, .419 3PT%, .833 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%

"La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.

Kyle Lowry
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
2006/07 stats: (10 games) 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.4 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, .417 FG%, .000 3PT%, .706 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%

Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.

Stromile Swift
Career stats: 20.7 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 0.7 SPG, .471 FG%, .705 FT%
2006/07 stats: 19.1 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 0.6 SPG, .465 FG%, .724 FT%
Preseason stats: 18.6 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.75 BPG, 1.0 SPG, .688 FG%, .750 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.0 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .470 FG%, .711 FT%

I think that Stro will be playing elsewhere next season. Either he'll play to his normal levels and be traded (possibly in the impending Damon trade) or he'll exceed everyone's expectations, in which case he'll opt out of his contract to get one more substantial payday. Through the preseason, he has given fans reason to once again hope for a realization of his "Strotential" (hat tip: Scott), but I'm not sure that even a contract year is motivation enough for Stro to achieve consistency.

Hakim Warrick
Career stats: 19.2 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.3 BPG, 0.4 SPG, .504 FG%, .746 FT%
2006/07 stats: 26.2 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .524 FG%, .771 FT% Preseason stats: 17.4 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.75 SPG, .451 FG%, .645 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%

Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.

Michael Conley
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 16.0 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, .38 SPG, .407 FG%, .500 3PT%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%

Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.

Casey Jacobsen
Career stats: 20.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, .399FG%, .370 3PT%, .770 FT%
2004/05 stats: 21.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, .406 FG%, .373 3PT%, .783 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.8 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, .583 FG%, .552 3PT%, .500 FT%
2006/07 projected stats: 8.5 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, .412 FG%, .389 3PT%, .786 FT%

For whatever reason, Casey seems to have taken Tarence Kinsey's allotment of minutes in the preseason. The most likely explanation for that is that Kinsey's shoulder injury from summer league is more serious than anyone thought. However, it could be that Jacobsen's outside shooting is seen as a more valuable commodity than Kinsey's perimeter defense at this point. We'll see how that plays out over the course of the season.

Tarence Kinsey
Career stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
2006/07 stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
Preseason stats: 13.8 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, .400 FG%, .250 3PT%, 1.000 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.2 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, .462 FG%, .311 3PT%, .781 FT%

TK impressed a lot of fans with his play during the last 3 weeks of last season. Of course, some pundits have openly wondered if that was merely a flash in the pan or if he can consistently play at that high level. Unfortunately, as noted above, we haven't seen much of Kinsey in the preseason to be able to gauge him on. I would hope that Kinsey can duplicate his "poor man's Tayshaun Prince" act from late last season, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting on it to happen.

Brian Cardinal
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, .425 fG%, .397 3PT%, .862 FT%
2006/07 stats: 11.2 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8 SPG, .494 FG%, .409 3PT%, .926 FT%
Preseason stats: 10.6 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.4 SPG, .435 FG%, .300 3PT%, .667 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 3.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, .467 FG%, .419 3PT%, .866 FT%

The Custodian has suffered through three injury plagued seasons since signing with the Grizzlies. While many fans consider his contract a millstone, I think that they have forgotten about how important he was to the team in 2004/05 when he carried the team while Pau Gasol was out battling foot issues, helping them to maintain momentum and reach the playoffs. I don't think that BC will get much burn this season, but his unique skillset could prove to be valuable, as he is a PF capable of shooting from the perimeter proficiently.

Andre Brown
Career stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
2006/07 stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.7 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, .467 FG%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, .551 FG%, .667 FT%

What can I say about a guy who probably won't see the floor except in blowouts and the case of injuries affecting the roster? He's long on hustle and short on ball-handling, so he'll get a few minutes here and there throughout the season, but will mostly spend time on the Inactive List.

So there are my predictions for the team's statistical outlook for the season. If you add them all up, it won't look right in terms of Team MPG, PPG, RPG, etc., but it never does, so don't worry about it.

Now the second part of the title to this thread is expectations. I was already working on this post when I wandered over to the Grizzlies Message Board and saw that someone else had a similar idea. The high-quality poster named bgassassin started a thread titled "For Rudy's sake, please dial down some of your expectations" , which implored Grizzlies' fans to be realistic in their predictions for the player many hope is the Grizzlies future star. He put great effort into finding statistics that showed that even the greatest of players struggled with certain aspects of the game in their formative years in the league. WIth his permission, I'm reproducing his work here:

With Rudy's shooting, someone needs to let him know that he doesn't have to be a great outside shooter now. Or for that matter an elite player now. Yet at the same time, I think we have been too harsh on him at times as well.

Jordan was not a good shooter when he came in the league. He was putting up big numbers while being a poor outside shooter. In fact, here are Jordan's 3pt% numbers his first four years and what he averaged:

84-85 - .173 (28.2ppg)

85-86 - .167 (22.7ppg, cut short due to injury)

86-87 - .182 (37.1ppg)

88-89 - .132 (35.0ppg)

Kobe has never even reached 40% from outside. His best was .383 five years ago. In fact, his second best shooting year was his rookie year (.375) and he struggled till the aforementioned time.

The player most of us compare him to, Shawn Marion, started out his first season at an atrocious .183 from behind the arc. He peaked in his third season and has regressed ever since.

Vince Carter started out at .288 from three.

And if we REALLY want to get picky, Reggie Miller shot .355 from outside his first season.

As you can see out of this selected group, only Kobe shot a higher percentage his rookie year than Rudy's .364. And as far as makes and attempts, only Reggie and Kobe are comparable in their first season. Is he really as bad as we think? Should two preseason games continue or even strengthen a certain thought about him? I will admit that I have been guilty of this thought as well at times.Rudy obviously must learn to attack the basket as often as possible to set up his jumpshot. At least then he should be in a position where he's not subconsciously falling away when he does shoot.

As you can see, many players who are considered elite superstars have struggled with parts of their game, only to develop that skill as their career progressed. For this team that is full of young talent (average age of the Grizzlies: 23.7 years old; 22.3 without Damon and BC), patience will be required when establishing expectations for the upcoming season, as well as their progress in the future. Too often we allow our best-case scenario "hopes and dreams" get mixed up with what is realistically achievable. That's one of the reasons I set our win prediction (37 wins) as low as I did. That is a 15-game improvement from last year which, injuries/bad luck or not in 2006/07, is a tremendous jump for any team that didn't acquire a star-level player in the offseason. I'd be happy with even fewer wins than that, to be quite honest.

Improving in the NBA is meant to be a gradual process, contrary to popular opinion. That's one of the reasons that only 8 teams have won a championship in the last 25 years. Many people are comparing this team to the 2003/04 Grizzlies that went from 28 wins the previous season to 50 wins and the playoffs. I admire their optimistic viewpoint, but that team skipped at least 3 steps that most young teams go through. In all likelihood, they should have gone from 28 wins to 33-36, then to 41-44 and then to 50 and the playoffs. This amazing jump lead to unrealistic expectations of title contention for a young NBA fanbase that wasn't as studied in the history of professional basketball as those in the cities of historic contenders (Boston, L.A., Chicago, Detroit, et al), despite having a rich basketball history in the area of high school and college levels. So, much like bgassassin, I urge all of you to temper your expectations for this Grizzlies team. I don't expect them to come roaring out of the gates. Rather, I expect a slow start, as the team develops chemistry, learns each other's tendencies and adapts to Marc Iavaroni's system. That means that they are quite likely going to be below .500 by more than a few games when January rolls around. This isn't all doom-and-gloom, though, because I think they will come together and play well for the last two to three months of the season, which will hopefully carry over to next year. That's my outlook for this season, so send all cheers or jeers to the Comments section.

Links: Conley should start?, Prediction Hysteria

Steve Weinman of Taking it to the Rack had a post today titled "Time is now for Conley in Memphis". This basically comes across as a declaration that the Grizzlies should start Michael Conley now, rather than later. Weinman is less than complimentary of Damon Stoudamire, both as a player and a person, insisting upon a needless focus on his past transgressions and brushes with authority figures, while ignoring how well he played in Memphis prior to his injury. For that matter, he doesn't even mention the career-threatening patella injury when discounting Mighty Mouse's potential contributions to the team.

I've been on record as saying that Damon is not part of the Grizzlies' long-term future...but he is important to the long-term success of both Conley and Kyle Lowry. In the 2-4 months that he is in Memphis this season, he can have a profound effect in mentoring these two young PG's, which seems to be a role he has accepted. Weinman believes that the Grizzlies are a potential playoff team, but doesn't want to see the better player get minutes? That seems contradictory in practice, but he is a Celtics' blogger, so maybe he just wants to make sure his team has the biggest improvement from last year. ;o)

Here's a quick look at a multitude of predictions involving the Grizzlies and what I did or didn't like about them.

Let's start off with the various previews/predictions from MVN.com.
End of the Bench has two separate predictions for the Memphis Grizzlies. First, Eric Thibauld predicts that we'll finish 12th in the west in his Western Conference Preview. Then, Chris Clarke mentions us as a strong contender to shock the NBA with our improvement this year.

I can't fault Thibauld for placing us that low since we were the worst team in the NBA last season, but he put the L.A. Clippers ahead of us. The same Clippers that appear to be in the same situation the Grizzlies were in last year by having their franchise player miss significant time. To each their own, I guess. And, of course, I agree with Clarke's line of thinking in naming us to surprise the rest of the league. I would feel better if people would stop picking us to win 50 games and make the postseason easily, though.

Speaking of that, Jon Burkett of Passion and Pride posted his Playoff Seed Predictions and has the Grizzlies as the #6 seed in the West. Nice to see that Zack isn't the only one drinking Beale Street Blue Kool-Aid these days.

On the flip side, Amar Panchmatia of Cavalier Attitude has a much bleaker prediction. In his Power Rankings, he places the Grizzlies 29th overall.

29. Memphis Grizzlies: A team that peaked when it got swept out of the first round for three straight seasons. Look, when you’re a small market team like Memphis that isn’t going to attract many big-name free agents, it’s hard to be anything more than a middle-of-the-road franchise. Picking up Mike Conley in the draft was a terrific move, and he’ll be an elite point guard in the league in due time. But unfortunately for Memphis, “due time” in this case is a matter of years. And is Conley going to do anything to add to this team’s biggest flaws: defense and rebounding? The Grizzlies were the worst in the league last year in opponents’ field goal percentage by giving up a whooping 52.9 percent field goal percentage. They were also 23rd in defensive rebounding, and although Pau Gasol missed 23 games, the Spaniard has long been referred to as one of the softest players in the league. Back when the Grizzlies were actually a playoff threat every year, the Grizzlies built their image in the name of defense under former Cavs coach Mike Fratello. Sure, we Cavs fans know how boring Fratello-ball can be, but it got the job done for Memphis. Fratello got canned after 30 games, but the Grizzlies defense had never been as poor as it was last year under the Czar’s guidance.

Then in his 2007/08 NBA Preview, he has the Grizzlies' record at 18-64. Apparently he doesn't realize that these are the Memphis Grizzlies and not the Vancouver Grizzlies being run by Stu Jackson. Chris Wallace actually knows how to make intelligent basketball decisions, so this team has gotten better, not worse. Needless to say, both Chip and I have put Amar on our "antagonize beyond belief" list. Amar, you have no idea what that means for you the remainder of this long, long NBA season.

On About.com (via Golden State of Mind), they have Ryan McNeill's (HoopsAddict) Memphis Grizzlies Preview. McNeill takes a rather harsh approach to evaluating Darko Milicic, but admits that he could very well be the key to the Grizzlies' success or failure this season. Overall, it is a fair look at the Grizzlies prospects.

Over on The Sports Network, Warren Blatt sees the Grizzlies as a fringe playoff team with the possibility to reach a win total in the low 40's.

Yesterday, I directed you to freedarko.com to see their Every Player Preview (Players A-F). Today, they continue it with Players G-O. Of course, that includes Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller, Darko Milicic and Juan Carlos Navarro. Needless to say, when I got down to Gasol's entry I was momentarily floored:

Gasol, Pau: Wins first MVP award

I dismissed this as shenanigans in the name of fun until I read Navarro's line shortly thereafter:

Navarro, Juan Carlos: Makes Gasol's MVP season possible

Surely they cannot be serious. They are serious...and don't like to be called Shirley. That's a rather amazing pronouncement from where I sit. When people predict that the Grizzlies will win 50 games and/or be the 6th seed in the West, I can chalk it up to being overly optimistic. Gasol getting an MVP vote would be amazing to me. Him being on the receiving end of an MVP award would be surreal. I might have to go lie down now -- FreeDarko has made me light-headed.

Links: Speed, Rookies, Surprises, Beards

Ron Tillery has a good piece up today on the Commercial Appeal that focuses on the Grizzlies committment to speed. There are a lot of good quotes from head coach Marc Iavaroni, as well as some interesting comments:

Acknowledging the difference in personnel, Iavaroni cautioned against the notion that he's going to simply unpack the Phoenix Suns' system in Memphis.
But Iavaroni will guarantee this: He definitely plans to implement more than a thing or two that he learned while working with the NBA's deadliest offense.
"We're not going to be Phoenix. We have our strengths. They have their strengths," Iavaroni said. "But I do believe the league has moved in that direction already. We're not going to sit and mope when somebody scores on us."

David Thorpe lists the players who might beat out Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year on ESPN Insider (which is free for the moment, so take advantage). He has Juan Carlos Navarro at #3 and Mike Conley Jr. at #9.

3. Juan Carlos Navarro, G, Memphis Grizzlies
NBA coaches are typically loathe to give rookies big minutes, but new coach Marc Iavaroni is likely to buck that tendency with Navarro, a 27-year-old sharpshooter who was the MVP of the second-best professional league in the world. Navarro plays a lot like J.J. Redick did in college -- he feels he can make any jumper.
Like most of the rookies on this list below him, he does have some good competition for playing time, namely another sharpshooter in Mike Miller (who's a lot taller) and the surprising Tarence Kinsey. But Navarro, with loads of Euroleague and international competition under his belt, projects to be the first wing off the bench on a team that plays with some serious pace, so his numbers should be solid.

9. Mike Conley Jr. , G, Memphis Grizzlies
Despite his immense talents, Conley has a few things working against him in this race. One, he is playing the toughest position to play as a rookie: the point.
Two, second-year point guard Kyle Lowry is going to be a very good pro and needs time to develop (either towards a better Grizzlies' future or as trade bait). Additionally, Damon Stoudamire and Navarro, as noted above, will get minutes for the Grizzlies.Still, Conley's ultra-quickness, superior handle and his strong hoops IQ will help him navigate the challenges of playing the lead guard in a fast-paced system, and I see a solid first year for him.

Martin Johnson of the New York Sun says the Memphis Grizzlies are poised to be the surprise team of the NBA this season.

I like both the Hawks' and the Bobcats' chances to move up a bit, but I think the Memphis Grizzlies will trump their improvement.

He details the information that all Grizz fans already know by heart (3 straight postseason appearances, Gasol's injury last year, Fratello's firing, new uptempo system) in making his case for a resurgence by Memphis. In all honesty, it is nice to see some optimism regarding the team ruminating from somewhere other than this blog.

In other words, assuming that the Western Conference's top six teams remain somewhat stable, the battle for the final two playoff spots could come down to a dogfight between the Lakers, Warriors, Hornets, and yes, the Grizzlies. And that
should mark a substantial rebound from a 22-win season.

Finally, The Blowtorch named Pau Gasol to the NBA All-Beard Team, which is a prestigious honor, indeed!

Media Bias? Not from these guys...

Over the years there has been a consistent accusation leveled against the coverage of the Memphis Grizzlies from their fans. It has been hard to determine if there was a negative bias as no one really ever tracked what the media personalities thought of the team to start.

In a strange attempt to give our readers a baseline to work off of I did a completely non-binding and non-scientific survey of the major sports media personalities in the area to gauge their opinions heading into the season. Most were surprisingly open and helpful in this endeavor. Some were rather slow in their responses but eventually did acquiesce to my request. Some flat out refused to even respond to my request with a comment. If you want to ask Ron Tillery, Jeff Weinberger and Rob Fisher why they refused to even reply to my email request on the air I am sure they will be most honest in their replies. (HINT!)

I must admit the overall tone of the local media who did respond were quite positive. The most obvious positive tone dealt mostly with the front office changes more than the on the court product. No one is expecting a return to the Fiasco at the Forum that last season was but also no one is expecting a Miracle in Memphis this season to use the media vernacular. What almost to a man these people did want is to be more connected with the team and everyone thinks Chris Wallace is doing a wonderful job of that. The general consensus is that Wallace has made it far easier to want to love the Grizzlies than Jerry West did and that will hopefully come across in their reporting.

So who is expecting what? Here is a quick rundown of our local media experts impression of the upcoming season. I promised each person who responded that I wouldn't hold them to this prediction (i.e. if the facts change they want the right to change their opinions) but heading into the season this is what they think.

Chris Herrington: (Film/Music Editor and Grizzlies Blogger for the Memphis Flyer and first responder by the way)

I EXPECT a 10-15 game improvement over last season, which would put the team at the 32-37 win level. But I PREDICT the Griz will be a little better than that, pushing into 38-40 win territory and landing 9th or 10th in the West

Gotta love a man with shameless optimism there. A little gutless on the expectation but in his heart he knows the team will be better. No one can accuse him of being biased against the team. Cautious yes but biased no. If you want to read his entire comment then you can see his Beyond the Arc blog.

Peter Edmiston (Ron Tillery's partner on the WHBQ radio show Morning Rush:

Overall, I'll say the Grizzlies will win just under 40 games and will be in outside contention for a playoff spot all the way through the month of March. Eventually, they'll fade, but I think there will be a lot of room for optimism by the end of the season as people get accustomed to seeing the new Grizzlies play.

While I truly appreciate Peter's fast response (he was second by less than one hour and his kind words about our blog, I wonder why he responded and Tillery didn't? Maybe it is a CA thing (or maybe Ron actually read the Memphis Grizzlies Webpage where I gave him such a hard time in the past and doesn't want to talk to me!).

George Lapides (Memphis Originator of Sports Talk Radio and current WHBQ host of Sportstime):

As for the team, I think it may be somewhat better than most people think -- remember I said somewhat better, not a whole lot better. My hunch is that we're looking at a team that could win something in the range of 32 to 38 games . . . 38 would be really good.

For those interested George also mentioned he renewed his tickets. He didn't mention where he was sitting but you have to love a man standing up for his integrity and paying his own way instead of taking the media pass (in other words I will gladly take George's pass if it isn't going to use!).

Gary Robinson (Sports Editor at the Commercial Appeal and the man who asked me to also blog on the Memphis Edge site):

Of course, we're still weeks away from the first tipoff and that's when we'll truly find out, but I think the team will be fun to watch and enthusiastic about improving under Iavaroni. The division is tough. The conference is tough. And while I'm not predicting a return to the playoffs just yet, nobody was predicting it following a 28-win season four years ago. Who knows?

Typical editor stuff here. Uses a lot of words but notice he doesn't actually say anything. Sorry Gary but I had to point that out. I hope you won't close me down on the Edge for doing that.

Chris Vernon (Memphis Flyer's Favorite Radio Personality and ESPN Radio Talk Show Host):

I expect the Grizzlies to be a surprise team and make the playoffs this year. They have upgraded the roster significantly and a structured fast style of play will account for more wins over the course of an 82 game season where teams do not show up for every game (esp. against perceived "bad teams"). Mike Miller will be the leading scorer on the team and have a chance at being an all-star. Kyle Lowry will be the fan favorite. Navarro will be surprisingly good in his first season. Iavaroni will get incredibly frustrated with Gasol's defense. Conley will struggle this year and people will wonder if it was the best pick the Grizzlies could have made. Rudy Gay will be labeled as a breakout player in the league and will fill out stat sheets. I will put the record at 44-38.

This actually is a radical change from earlier comments from Verno when he said "just put me down as saying the opposite of whatever Chris Herrington wrote!" You knew I wasn't going to let that slide didn't you Chris?

Gary Parrish (CBS Sportsline College Basketball Reporter and occasional sidekick to Chris Vernon...okay frequent sidekick):

Number of wins: 36.

Why: They're just not very good.

Gary wasn't asked to provide an explanation for his prediction, but I think the few words he did type tell the whole story.

Geoff Calkins (CA award winning editorial writer):

The Grizzlies will win between 35-40 games. The team will be better than last year – on the fringe of the playoff hunt -- because Lowry and Pau are healthy, because Navarro will be a spark and because the basketball side is no longer a mess. Having said that, we’ll still wonder if there’s enough high-end talent. And we’ll still wonder if the Grizzlies should have traded Miller and/or Pau. Speaking of which, Stoudamire will be traded by the end of the year.

You can see that Harvard educated mind at work in this prediction. All comments quantified with factual statements. Gotta love the style of Calkins. Memphis is lucky to have him.

Eli Savoie (Late addition but he was kind enough to respond so I added him in):

I expect the Grizzlies to be better this year, but I don't expect the huge improvement in wins that a lot of people are predicting. I am looking for the young guys to get a lot of experience and this team to start working towards being competitive in the playoffs two or three years from now. I think 33-35 wins is a realistic goal for this year as far as wins go, but more important to me is the development of the younger players such as Conley, Lowry, Milicic, Gay and Warrick. Barring any major injuries, I look for the Grizzlies to win around 35 games.

Eli comes in late and low but that is still great that he responded at all.

And yes that is another sucker punch at Ron Tillery, Jeff Weinberger and Rob Fisher.

Most of the responses actually went a bit beyond what the scope of my blog was about. I edited some of them down so this wouldn't be as long as the roundtable discussion. However, there were some very interesting comments made that I feel should be pointed out.

From Chris Herrington:

If you judge a team’s personnel moves relative to the available opportunities, which seems fair, then I think this is the best, most thoughtful, most forward-thinking offseason the team has had during its Memphis tenure.

He went on to talk about how Mike Conley and Darko were excellent moves. You are on record now Chris. Don't start questioning Chris Wallace in Mid-Season about them!

Until I get more exposure to him in an NBA setting, I’m more skeptical about Juan Carlos Navarro’s potential impact, largely because recent history suggests international guards making the move to the NBA in mid-career tend to struggle with that adjustment. But, because expense (a future pick that can never be Top 10) is minimal and because of the probable benefit in terms of smoothing the team’s relationship with Pau Gasol, I’m on board with this move as well.

I just put this here because this is an example of predictions that may be changed later. JCN has looked great in Spain since Herrington wrote this but he hasn't played a regular season game in this country yet.
From Geoff Calkins:

Ticket sales will be a crisis.

I sure hope that is wrong but if it isn't wrong and everything else Calkins says is correct and attendance is still a problem how will that reflect on the city? Would poor attendance with an exciting team look worse than poor attendance with a terrible team?
From Gary Robinson:

I think the Grizzlies fly under the national radar -- and even did so when they were winning 50 games -- so I don't pay much attention to what the national media thinks about the local club.

While very true it does make you wonder what effect national media has on the perception locally of the team and how that plays into attendance.

There was a lot more said but I think the basic information is there to be seen. Vernon is the most optimistic but most media types peg the Grizzlies between 30 and 40 wins with a small chance to reach the playoffs. Time will tell if they know anything more than the rest of us Grizzlies fans except of course for the Harvard educated Calkins.

Roundtable Discussion, Part 1

The following is a roundtable discussion that occurred on September 25. This is Part 1 of a 3 part series. Be sure to leave feedback in the comments section. Due to the overwhelming length of these posts, they will be moved after the weekend, but I'll provide a link to each part for your viewing convenience.

Roundtable discussion, Part 1
Chip: New team, new coach, new season about to start. First question, let’s start at the end. How do you see the season ending?
Spartacus: I think, in all likelihood, we’re looking at 36-37 wins as the most likely scenario. We’re looking at 2 young PG’s. Navarro is a veteran overseas, but is still an NBA rookie, so we’re not sure how well he’ll go through that transition. Darko, for all intents and purposes is still a big question mark. He’s still unfulfilled potential at this point. Throw that in with a new coach and a new system and it’s an uncertain reality to face.
C: Well, we know what Darko can do to a ref’s family, but we don’t know what he can do on an NBA court.
S: Exactly.
Zack: I’m a little more optimistic. I was right around 36-38 wins, but I’ve bumped it up in the last couple weeks, looking at a win total in the low 40’s and grabbing one of those last playoff spots.
C: What do you see as the big difference that will allow us get a few extra wins to enter the playoff picture? You’re talking about an additional 5% upgrade over an 82 game season.
Z: I’ve downgraded my predictions on the rest of the West. Portland is a couple of games less now. I saw them as a playoff possibility before.
C: They still have LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, Brandon Roy, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez.
Z: They’re loaded with young talent, that’s for sure.
S: Darius Miles is supposed to be healthy now.
C: He is healthy and is supposed to come to camp without a contract.
Z: Well, physically healthy anyways.
C: Yeah, physically. Very good point. LOL
Z: The Clippers with Brand out. They’re looking at a repeat of the Grizzlies season last year.
S: Exactly. Especially with Sam Cassell sitting there looking at Boston going, “Please.....please”
C: Now wait a minute guys, we saw Chris Kaman this summer. He completely dominated the Grizzlies big men in Summer League. None of them are actually in the NBA now and I don’t think any of them are in any training camps...
S: Summer League All-Stars! They’re the biggest crock every year.
C: He at least admitted that he needed to improve and is showing signs of carrying that out. You’ve got to look at a team with Al Thornton, Corey Maggette...
Z: Al Thornton impressed me during the summer league.
C: Summer League All-Star here too. But he’s a 23-year old rookie.
S: He impressed me last year in college, too, though. He was a little older, a little more mature than everyone else.
C: I wonder how greatly the demise of the Clippers is being overstated. It’s hard to see how they won’t have an impact with the talent they still have on that roster.
S: I think everything rests on how Sam Cassell reacts to the situation.
C: What about Tim Thomas?
S: *snort* Uh..no.
C: Tim Thomas plays where all of a sudden you’ve got this weird situation where there are four outside shooters, a slashing point guard and a big man in the middle. I’ve heard some people think this is an effective way to play these days. Trying to get perimeter shooters with slashers and a big guy. Hmmm...who do we know doing that?
S: There’s nobody that does that. Well, not successfully of course!
Z: Going back to the original point, I see the Grizzlies grabbing one of those last playoff spots—the 6th, 7th, 8th spot that always seems to be up for grabs.
C: Last season’s 6th-8th spots were who?
Z: Golden State, the Lakers and Denver.
C: I look at those teams and wonder, where is the slide? Granted, the Lakers aren’t going to improve, but are they gonna slide? They do have one or two guys who can shoot.
Z: I think they’re going to slide, because they’ve got turmoil. They’re in a big media market ready to pounce—they’ll take anything they can get.
S: Who exactly were their big offseason acquisitions? They got Derek Fisher.
C: Which is a pretty good acquisition.
S: But other than that, what did they do?
C: They re-signed Luke Walton.
Z: They drafted a PG for the second year in a row, just like the Grizzlies.
C: They’ve got Jordan Farmar starting because they got rid of their starter from last season because Smush Parker is in Miami now.
Z: Javaris Crittendon is who they drafted.
C: I don’t have a lot of faith in rookie PG’s, as much as it pains me to say that.
S: And Crittendon is more of a scorer than a playmaker, whereas Farmar is the opposite.
Z: Then you have the Warriors losing Jason Richardson, which will definitely hurt them in the short term as they try to replace his scoring.
S: Losing Richardson and then waving good-bye to Jasikevicius, which means both of their SG’s are gone from last season.
Z: Baron Davis is wanting a contract extension.
C: He won’t get it.
S: And Monta Ellis probably stepping into the starting lineup.
Z: They’ve got some question marks, which is why I’ve got the Warriors and Lakers falling out of the postseason, even if Memphis doesn’t take their spot.
C: So, if someone was going to fall, you’ve got those two. Who do you see, other than the Grizzlies, potentially stepping up?
Z: You’ve got to like the Hornets.
S: We were talking about them earlier today. You almost have to like them. Peja is back healthy, they signed MoPete in the offseason and Tyson Chandler looks like he’s ready to just destroy the entire league on his own.
C: As long as he doesn’t have to shoot the ball anyways.
Z: And I really like David West. He hits that 15-ft. elbow shot all day long.
S: He’s like another P.J. Brown. He says, “I’m just going to sit out here all day long until you stop me”.
C: David West is an average PF who can take advantage of whatever you give him, but won’t enforce himself on anyone.
S: He’s not going to go down to the low post to bang around with everyone. Like Zack said, he’ll take that mid-range shot all night and at the end of the game you look at the stats and go, “Hey, West had 22 and 11. How did that happen?”
C: Offensive rebounds. He grabs 4-6 every game it seems, which allows him easy putbacks, so he doesn’t have to shoot that much to get his points. He’ll get points and rebounds, but he doesn’t seem to give you much else. Like David Berri said after reading Ryan Schwan’s Hornets blog—he’s average. But on the right team, an average player can be exceptional.
Z: I like their coach, too.
C: The Original Grizzly—Byron Scott.
Z: I think he’ll rally the troops. Even when they’ve had injuries, I thought he handled things well. A lot of the 82 game season is about who can deal with adversity. Who can suffer an injury to a key contributor and keep the momentum until that guy can make it back.
C: If I was going to say that there is one thing that scares me about calling the Hornets a lock for the playoffs, it is that they seem fragile. There isn’t a single player on their team that I would bet would play 80 games this year.
Z: Chris Paul, he’s so young, but he plays a style that lends itself to contact.
C: It’s such a physical game and he’s not really a physical specimen. You’ve also got Peja...
Z: History speaks for itself there.
C: But they’ve also got the ironman in MoPete. Until last season, he had the longest active consecutive game streak going. Of course, you find that when people break down, especially around the age of 30, it doesn’t seem to stop with just one injury.
S: It becomes a chronic problem, more often than not.
Z: Speaking of injuries, if there was one Western Conference team that you think is going to get the injury bug this year, who would it be? There’s always one.
S: Sacramento.
Z: I’m looking at Sacramento or Utah.
C: You know who I think? What do you look for when you look for potential injury bug? Players who play a lot of minutes.
Z: Rely heavily on one player.
C: Teams that have a preponderance of older players.
Z: And a short bench.
C: And a team that avoided injury the previous year. I’m picking the San Antonio Spurs. Nobody got hurt last year. They basically go 6 deep and they’re all over 40. You look at that team and go, “If Tim Duncan doesn’t go down, it probably doesn’t matter”. They did finish 3rd in the conference and 2nd in their division last year and still managed to be 1st overall. But you look at a team with Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, Manu Ginobili. Fabricio Oberto has already broken his jaw, his face, something like that. Tony Parker’s never been hurt, Tim Duncan is passing 30. Who else? That’s their 6 or 7 guys, right?
Z: So who is more valuable to them? Parker or Duncan?
C: Duncan in the regular season and Parker in the playoffs. Because Duncan, night in and night out, never seems to fail you. He’s going to do his job.
S: 25 and 10, just like clockwork.
C: Parker in the playoffs, just has so much speed that they more he wears out the opponent, the more effective he becomes. In a short series, I want Parker. Over 82 games, I want Tim Duncan.
S: With that speed that Parker brings, it frustrates a defense. And in a playoff series, where you know that you’re going to see the same guy the next night and the next night, it becomes a mental issue, which makes him even more effective. That’s why quick heady point guards destroy teams in the playoffs.
C: So my Glass Team, the Red Cross team to watch this year is the Spurs. It’s very hard to do it two years in a row.
S: Part of the reason why they’ve been prevented from winning consecutive titles. It seems like someone ends up with a nagging injury late in the season that affects their postseason performance. That’s what happened with Duncan two years ago when they lost to Dallas. He goes down towards the end of the year and never fully recovers in time for the playoffs.
Z: So who’s better—the Spurs, Mavs or Suns? They’ve been the top three for a few years now.
C: This is the first year that I see there being some weakness at the top. Not a lot, but it is there. Of the three, I think in the regular season, you have to say that the Dallas Mavericks have the best combination of depth and talent.
S: What did they have, 67 wins last year?
C: Yeah, and the only guy who could beat them was their former coach.
S: Did you read the post by Henry Abbott on TrueHoop today about them hiring Paul Westphal? The guy he quoted just absolutely destroyed them for that move. Apparently, he was a student at Pepperdine and believes that Westphal destroyed that program. He detailed the roster from 2 or 3 years ago, where there were 3 or 4 NBA level talents on the team and they finished below .500 in the WCC.
Z: And he was using John Calipari’s, well it was his (Westphal’s) “Attack, Attack, Attack” philosophy?
S: The guy went on to say that he had that much talent in one of the worst conferences in America and still ran the program into the ground? Why would you want him anywhere near your team?
C: The last time Dallas hired a former Phoenix coach, it didn’t end well. When John MacLeod came to Dallas, he had a great history of running a team from top to bottom. Then he promptly took a playoff team that made the Conference Finals in his first year and dropped them off a cliff. They won like 15 games by the time he was done with them. That’s why I’ve never been a fan of hiring former Phoenix coaches. Uhh..........Phoenix head coaches that is!
S: Nice save.
C: Well, we’ve kind of covered the West now. Can anyone stop Boston in the East?
Z: I think so.
S: We’ve gone over this before. I even had a blog post about it, because I’m not conceding the conference championship to Beantown just yet.
C: I’m not conceding the division to them yet.
S: They asked Jason Kidd about that the other day, if anyone can stop Boston. He said that Toronto won the division last year and all of a sudden everyone is counting them out. I’m not sure why. They’re a great team that’s only going to get better.
C: New Jersey is still solid, too.
S: Exactly what he said. He felt that his team still had a great shot. There are others in the East, too. With Miami, it would take...
C: A miracle?
S: Well, a healthy Shaq, Wade and a lot of help from their role players to beat the Celtics in a playoff series. I think that Chicago could potentially take anybody down in a best of 7, if they are clicking on all cylinders.
C: I think if any team can come up out of the East and truly be an elite team, you have to look at Chicago before you look at Boston.
S: Well, you can’t forget about Detroit either.
Z: I’m a big fan of the Pistons’ chances in the East. They are getting old and their days are numbered, but they’re still dangerous.
C: Is Webber coming back?
S: No, they are moving Rasheed over to center and starting Antonio McDyess at PF.
C: Interesting. I don’t think that will work, but we’ll see.
S: Here’s the thing though. With Sheed, you’ve got the one guy that Tim Duncan freely admits gives him absolute fits when they are matched up. That was at PF. You move him to C and he becomes the Mehmet Okur of the East, because McDyess can hit the midrange shot with consistency too. Can you see the frontcourt guys in the East following him out to the perimeter?
Z: I also really like the young wing guys for Detroit—Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey.
C: Summer League All-Stars again.
S: Not as much as you’d think. Afflalo I wasn’t as high on, but I detailed Stuckey in our draft preview. He’s just a flat-out scorer.
C: They’ll still have that typical rookie adjustment. (Speaking directly to Zack:) I can’t believe that you’re talking to me about Afflalo after I wrote about him over the summer and you chastised me about him. Don’t even talk to me about Arron Afflalo!
Z: I just didn’t like him college.
S: He looked good in college...just not in the tournament.
C: He was the only guy on their team that could score.
C: What will end first, the New York Knicks season or Isiah Thomas’ trial?
Z: You mean trials?
S: Yeah, are we including the future civil suits that will be forthcoming?
Z: I’ve been reading the headlines from this trial and it looks like something out of Penthouse. It’s unbelievable.
S: I don’t know. Like Chip has said before, if you have jurors falling asleep during proceedings, it can’t be that interesting.
C: I’ve never heard of a sexual harassment suit where people were falling asleep. That doesn’t seem to follow.
S: Of course, the clips they’ve had of Isiah and Starbury on The Fanhouse and Deadspin have been endlessly entertaining. Absolutely priceless.
Z: So who’s winning the East?
C: I’m going out on a limb and saying Chicago.
S: I think they are still a year away.
C: I thought they were a year away last year.
S: They still haven’t added any low-post scoring. That’s still holding them back.
C: Ben Wallace is currently enrolled in the Mark Price Shooting School.
S: I think Detroit does it as kind of a last hurrah before they begin a minor rebuilding phase. They need to rebuild their frontcourt.
C: You’ve got to face facts though. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball. The Patriots are a dynasty that’s gotten better. It’s obvious that it is a New England type of year. It’s happened once before where one city held all three major sports crowns at one time. It was a “Tiger Slam”, not a Bobby Jones Slam, as it spanned two calendar years, but they were all in possession at one time. It was the Knicks, Jets and Mets in 1969-70. Boston/New England has a really good shot at doing that this year.
Z: I’ve got to stick with the Central Division and go with the Pistons.
C: You’re not taking the Knicks? Interesting that nobody is taking the Heat. We haven’t even talked about Orlando.
S: They have to get an upgrade at PG. Jameer Nelson is not the answer if you want to go far in the playoffs.
C: They have an interesting situation where this coming summer all three of their PG’s will be free agents...and they have no money.
Z: They’re not talking with Nelson on an extension right now either.
S: They realize they have to get an upgrade, so they might be in the market for one of Houston’s 8 PG’s.
Z: What about the Cavs?
C: I don’t believe that they will be able to re-sign both Andersen Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, which makes them weaker right off the bat. Larry Hughes is still fragile and Big Z is getting older by the second. Drew Gooden is getting more and more confident, which is always a bad thing. LeBron James can only do so much. It was a fluke run last year. Let’s face it—how many times can he go out on a court and score 29 of the team’s last 30 points, including 25 straight? That was probably the best individual performance I’ve ever seen in an NBA game, and I’ve seen Dominique Wilkens and Larry Bird’s battles, and I saw Michael Jordan a hundred times. That game was the best effort by a single player I’ve ever seen, and it shocked Detroit so much that it cost them the series.
Z: And I think this is in spite of the coach not really utilizing LeBron in the best way. I never really liked what he’s done with LeBron to this point. Against the Spurs, he really took it to them in the post early in the first game...and then they never went back to it. I really question their coach more and more every time I watch them.
S: If you remember, it was about halfway through this past season, there were rumblings that LeBron was unhappy and thinking, “Hey, maybe I need a new coach here”. Then, all of a sudden, they go on a run, make the playoffs and the rest is history. That problem still remains though. I think that’s what is going to hold Boston back, as well. Doc Rivers is a (cue Bill Walton) H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E coach. He was a horrible coach in Orlando.
C: He got them to the playoffs.
S: And what happened then? They blow a 3-1 series lead against Detroit that began the futility that is Tracy McGrady’s quest to surpass the first round of the playoffs. Speaking of T-Mac, what do we think about Houston? Best offseason in the West?
Z: I think so, and I can’t believe that that package includes Stevie Francis.
C: That’s the key. I question whether or not they truly had the best offseason outside of Boston. I’ll play devil’s advocate here. They have something like 16 signed PG’s, right?
S: The only team with more is Portland, because they insist on getting one thrown in with every trade they make.
C: Yeah, but Portland hasn’t signed them all—they just own their rights. I mean, how do you see Steve Francis, Mike James, Rafer Alson and the kid from Oregon, Aaron Brooks, working together? That’s four PG’s and not nearly enough playing time to go around.
S: First of all, forget about Brooks. He’s a non-entity this year.
C: But he was a Summer League All-Star!
S: Point taken. Rafer Alston—they’ll find a way to either trade him or waive him.
C: Then you’re still left with Mike James and Steve Francis.
S: Which is OK if you’re bringing Steve Francis off the bench as your 6th man, saying “Hey, go out there and score”.
C: And Steve Francis is willing to accept that role.
S: I think if you let him know “We don’t want you to do anything but score”, I can’t imagine him not being OK with that.
C: Has he ever felt any team thought otherwise?
S: That’s just it. If he’s in the starting lineup, you can’t have him doing that. He has to be a playmaker/facillitator to get Yao Ming involved in the offense, first and foremost. That’s one thing I still don’t think they’ve grasped as the key to their success.
C: How does Yao fit in with Rick Adelman’s typical style of play? Again, everyone agreed that he’s a great hire...but is he the right hire for that team?
S: I think there are still a lot of questions about that, although his history with big men who can pass well—Divac, Webber, Miller—says that he’ll “work things out” just fine.
C: Then there’s McGrady. Has he ever made it through a season without injury concerns? And then we’re going to put him in an up-and-down the floor style of play with his bad back? You’ve got a 7’6” sloth at center. Let’s face it, he’s incredibly talented, but he is not fast. Big Jake beat him down the court for pete’s sake. Then you’ve got T-Mac and his back, Bubble Butt Bonzi and then Shane, who isn’t a speed merchant. And you want to play an uptempo pace?
Z: They might have the highest ceiling and the lowest low.
C: Exactly. I don’t really know what to expect from this team. As they get closer to the playoffs and realize that they’re destined for 3rd in the division...or maybe even 4th.
S: I don’t know. I could see them moving up to 2nd behind Dallas.
C: San Antonio breaks?
S: No, the Spurs realize, much like the Lakers did, that you don’t have to win 60+ games every year. You just have to make the playoffs and then take care of business. All they have to do is make the postseason.
C: Especially if they make the playoffs and then play Houston in the first round, because that’s a guaranteed win. LOL
Z: With Houston, I think the best recipe for success will be to have McGrady as the de facto PG. Even if he doesn’t bring the ball up the floor, in the half-court sets, he has the ball in his hands and makes the decisions.
C: That could work, because none of their PG’s are really pass-first playmakers. Of course, then you have McGrady and Shane......and backing them up, thinking he’s more talented than they are, unhappy Bonzi.
S: I don’t like having Rafer Alston on that team. I don’t like Bonzi on that team, because he’ll do what’s best for Bonzi at the expense of everyone else. The one thing that I think makes this the best offseason for them was getting Luis Scola. That move, by itself, the acquisition of a consistent low-post presence to put next to Yao is a tremendous upgrade over a Juwan Howard or an undersized guy like Chuck Hayes.
C: So, just so I’m clear, we’re saying their great move is bringing in a rookie international player?
S: Yeah. Well that, and bringing back Mike James and Steve Francis. Again, with all respect to Marc Stein’s rankings, I put us a close second in the West with the moves the Grizzlies made this offseason. I look at Seattle’s moves and just don’t see how their moves fit together.
C: I don’t see Seattle’s moves doing anything substantial for them for the next 24 months.
Z: I agree. While you can look at their moves and say, “Wow great moves”, in reality what they did was trade away proven talent now for potential in the future.
C: Potential at the same position with Durant and Green.
Z: Kurt Thomas was a nice pickup, as well as the additional draft picks that came with him.
C: That was a nice move on the Sonics part.
Z: Let’s say you make the same trade that Seattle did. Do you take Jeff Green at # 5 with Durant already being take at # 2? There’s a slew of choices at # 5 and you take another SF.
S: That’s exactly what we talked about the other day. How do you not take Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright or Yi Jianlian? Do you think Yi would have balked at being in Seattle?
C: Of course not. Jeff Green is the one guy I thought fit poorest alongside Durant.
Z: Didn’t I read that they’re going to play Durant at SG?
S: Sure did. A 6’10” SG that's the size of a # 2 pencil.
C: Well, you can’t play him under the basket.
S: You can put him at SF where his height still gives him an advantage over most guys. He’s not a physical player at all, though. It’s funny, because right now he’s looking more and more like Rashard Lewis....the guy Seattle just shipped out of town for a conditional 2nd round pick. I still cannot believe the contract that the Magic gave him.
--End Part 1--