Reviewing Expectations and Predictions

Back before the season began, I predicted what each player's statistical output for the season would be. Let's take a look back and see just how far off I really was with the primary players, shall we? If you want to see how the role players did, I'll let you check out the link above and see for yourself.

Mike Miller

Prediction: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%

Actual: 35.3 MPG, 16.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, .502 FG%, .437 3PT%, .774 FT%

Then: Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.

Now: Miller shot better from the floor and rebounded more than I thought he would, but overall, I'm pretty pleased with my prediction, especially since I pointed at his efficiency increasing, which is exactly what happened.


Rudy Gay
Prediction: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%

Actual: 37 MPG, 20.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .462 FG%, .346 3PT%, .785 FT%

Then: Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Now: Well, I guess that "lowball" might not even cover it, although I don't think that anyone expected that big a leap in Rudy's scoring and efficiency -- including him. Again, I was very close on rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, but considerably off on scoring and shooting percentages.

Darko Milicic
Prediction: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Actual: 23.8 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, .438 FG%, .554 FT%

Then: Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Now: Darko didn't start slow at all, but an injury-plagued season derailed his efforts to show that he's not the bust that the media makes him out to be. On a per-minute basis, his stats are actually very close to what I predicted.

Juan Carlos Navarro
Prediction: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
Actual: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, .402 FG%, .361 3PT%, .849 FT%

Then: "La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Now: JCN was just as inconsistent as any other rookie, leading to shooting percentages that were much lower than I predicted. Looking back, I obviously went way too high on PPG for someone I was expecting to play less than half a game. I thought that Navarro have much more of a score-first mentality, but he was a more complete, all-around player than that.

Kyle Lowry
Prediction: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Actual: 25.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, .432 FG%, .257 3PT%, .698 FT%

Then: Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Now: Well, Kyle didn't start often (only 9 games), but he did manage to log a lot of MPG even still. Kyle wasn't the facillitator that I was expecting, which led to much lower assist numbers than I was anticipating. Lowry's shot improved mechanically through the season, even if his perimeter percentages don't reflect that. Also, I'm begging him to spend all summer with Mark Price after seeing those free throw numbers.

Hakim Warrick
Prediction: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Actual: 23.4 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .502 FG%, .704 FT%

Then: Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Now: Obviously, I didn't expect the team to trade Pau Gasol mid-season, which led Hak getting far more minutes than the prediction above. Even with that said, it is a little disconcerting that Warrick's assists, steals and blocks weren't any better with the additional playing time. Hak still doesn't play defense, pass or dribble very well.

Mike Conley
Prediction: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Actual: 26.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 0.8 SPG, .428 FG%, .330 3PT%, .732 FT%

Then: Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Now: Mark me down for being wrong on the reasoning, but right about the stats once again. Conley started 46 of the 53 games he appeared in, as the coaching staff felt that he was ready to assume that role as soon as Damon Stoudamire was released. Conley wasn't as disruptive on defense as I expected, but he was a better shooter/scorer than I anticipated.

As mentioned earlier, I can't make myself go through the Andre Browns and Casey Jacobsens on the roster, but I'm considering reviewing the players who are no longer on the team. If you're interested in reading more about Pau, Damon and Stro, drop a line in the Comments.

Darko "Busting" Out

It starts off innocently enough....more of a question than anything. Usually it is asked in a manner that is seemingly innoccuous and harmless. Then the question starts to become a statement more and more often. Soon enough it is considered an irrefutable, undeniable fact. After all, you cannot argue that when the #2 pick of a draft that produced LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh is only averaging 5.2 ppg and 3.7 rpg after 4 years in the league that he is, in fact, a "bust".

Or can you?

Pau Gasol hasn't played for the Memphis Grizzlies since January 28 against the Dallas Mavericks. In the 7 games since then, Darko has played 30+ mpg in 5 of them, posting averages of 13.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.6 bpg, 1.8 apg, .519 FG%, .647 FT%. Add in the game at Dallas in which he played 25 minutes and his averages are 11.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 1.5 apg, .483 FG%, .647 FT%. In other words, if you remove the Philly game where he only played 13 minutes as the team *coughshowcasedcough* ahem, gave significant playing time to Hakim Warrick, Milicic has averaged a double-double since Gasol left the lineup. Darko has 6 double-doubles on the year (3 since "The Trade"), but only one with less than 30 minutes played -- the game against the Lakers on January 8th, where he played 27:10 and recorded 12 pts, 11 reb and 4 blk.

Those aren't eye-popping numbers, but they're far better than what Jerome James or Malik Rose are putting up for the Knicks at similiar salaries. To give a little perspective, a certain 20-year old up-and-comer is receiving plenty of praise for posting 13/10 this year in 29 mpg after putting up 8/6 in 22 mpg last year. That player's name: Andrew Bynum, who is in his 3rd year in the league. In fact, that this is technically Darko's 5th season since being drafted has really worked against him when the dreaded "B" word comes up. But if you truly examine his tenure, you'll see that he is just now truly completing his 2nd full season in the NBA as his first 2.5 years with Detroit were practically wasted. Only when he was traded to the Orlando Magic did he receive any significant playing time. That's right, he's a 22-year old 7-foot center who only has 2 real years under his belt and is just now getting a chance to show what he can do, albeit with a nagging injury to his shooting hand for most of the year.

Hopefully you are over the shock of me comparing Darko to Bynum. Let's look at a few other comparisons and see how Darko stacks up against a few players who were known as solid defensive players with somewhat limited offensive potential and what their respective career arcs look like.

Tyson Chandler 7' 1" 6 yrs Pro
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	RPG	BPG	PPG
01-02	71	31	19.6	0.497	4.8	1.3	6.1
02-03	75	68	24.4	0.531	6.9	1.4	9.2
03-04	35	8	22.3	0.424	7.7	1.2	6.1
04-05	80	10	27.4	0.494	9.7	1.8	8.0
05-06	79	50	26.8	0.565	9.0	1.3	5.3
06-07	73	73	34.6	0.624	12.4	1.8	9.5
07-08	46	46	34.7	0.607	12.3	1.0	12.2
Career	459	286	27.1	0.547	8.9	1.4	7.9

Samuel Dalembert 6' 11" 5 yrs Pro
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	RPG	BPG	PPG
03-04	82	53	26.8	0.541	7.6	2.3	8.0
04-05	72	60	24.8	0.524	7.5	1.7	8.2
05-06	66	52	26.7	0.531	8.2	2.4	7.3
06-07	82	82	30.9	0.541	8.9	1.9	10.7
07-08	52	52	33.1	0.516	9.9	2.4	11.1
Career	388	299	26.2	0.530	7.8	1.9	8.3

Chris Kaman 7' 0" 5 yrs Pro
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	RPG	BPG	PPG
03-04	82	61	22.5	0.460	5.6	0.9	6.1
04-05	63	50	25.9	0.497	6.7	1.1	9.1
05-06	78	78	32.8	0.523	9.6	1.4	11.9
06-07	75	66	29.0	0.451	7.8	1.5	10.1
07-08	44	43	39.0	0.476	13.6	3.0	16.5
Career	342	298	29.0	0.483	8.2	1.4	10.2

Darko Milicic 7' 0"   4 yrs Pro
Yr	G	GS	MPG	FG%	RPG	BPG	PPG
05-06	30	1	20.9	0.507	4.1	2.1	7.6
06-07	80	16	23.9	0.454	5.5	1.8	8.0
07-08	42	39	24.9	0.437	5.9	2.0	6.8
Career	248	60	16.7	0.443	3.7	1.3	5.3

It is rather interesting to consider that Tyson Chandler was considered a bust while in Chicago. Samuel Dalembert has shown gradual, but very limited improvement since he came into the league. Chris Kaman was labeled a disappointment before Elton Brand's injury allowed him to flourish this season. Right now, Darko is at least 4 years younger than any of these players. He'll have the rest of the season, as well as the next two years, to establish himself as a consistent low-post performer, something we have gotten a glimpse of since Gasol's departure. Sure, he'll still have a lousy game here and there -- who doesn't? But at his age with his potential on his current salary, I'm not sure that he isn't going to be one of the most important building blocks of this young team going forward. So, to every Mike Kahn or Chad Ford that calls Darko a BUST, I say that his fate has yet to be determined. Darko's Redemption? Nay. Darko's emergence from his chrysalis.


The Dark One cometh....