NBA Previews - Southeast Division

Shades of Blue is pleased to be joining with several other team blogs in providing previews for CelticsBlog.com's NBA section. Be sure to take the time to read all these other quality blogs as they predict their team's future for the 2007/08 season.

Washington Wizards
Bullets Forever

Orlando Magic
Believing in Magic
Third Quarter Collapse

Miami Heat
I Want to be a Sports Agent
Crazy from the Heat

Atlanta Hawks
Impending Firestorm

Charlotte Bobcats
Bobcat Bonfire
Queen City Hoops

Archives
CelticsBlog NBA Page

Also, Tom Ziller covers the entire division in his NBA Festivus: Southeast Preview.

Memphis vs Miami

Memphis struggled out of the gates again in losing at Indiana. However the defense never showed up against the Pacers as the Grizzlies surrendered by quarter 31, 32, 30 and 29 points. Once again the offense woke up in the 2nd half to score 73 points. No one questions the Grizzlies ability to score. Stopping teams has been the problem. Well that and finding out how bad that sprain is on Pau's ankle. The team hasn't bonded as a unit yet but it is safe to say that they will be working hard on defensive responsibilities over the next week.

Miami has struggled with injuries this preseason but hasn't stopped their habit of inheriting Memphis players to bolster their team. Players with Memphis connections have included former Tiger Earl Barron as well as former Grizzlies Jason Williams and James Posey. This year's additions are former Tiger Penny Hardaway and former Grizzly Alexander Johnson. Penny should be able to play in the game Saturday night so expect a large contingent of fans not cheering for the men in blue in this game. AJ may have a chip on his shoulder in this game.

Point Guard: Kyle Lowry vs Jason Williams
I know a lot of people will come to this game to see former Grizz point guard Jason Williams. Finally getting healthy after struggling with different ailments so far in camp JWill should get extended minutes in this game. Who will start for the Grizzlies is a much bigger question. Damon started the first three games but doesn't look capable of playing the uptempo style that Iavaroni has expressed a desire to play and can't defend well enough to prevent opponents from breaking down the defense. Kyle Lowry has looked great off the bench but only average as a starter. His passing hasn't been that impressive and his shooting isn't very good at all. Mike Conley posted his first double double against Indiana with 11 pts and 10 assists in only 29 minutes. Maybe it is Mike's turn to show off. Backing up JWill is Smush Parker. Keep an eye on Chris Quinn as well for Miami.

Shooting Guard: Mike Miller vs Dorell Wright
Mike had an off night offensively with only 4 attempts against Indiana. Most peculiar since with Gasol's absence you would expect Mike to step it up more offensively. Maybe the rumors about him being dealt are affecting him. JCN and TK are battling for back up minutes at the 2 and their battle is getting heated. Dorell Wright has been talked about as the next great player for two years but he never has really had a chance to show off his stuff until now. With Penny hobbled, DWade out and Posey gone Wright is being given his chance to shine. Penny should be ready to play in this game so expect to seem him at both the point and the 3 as well as the 2. Daequan Cook should also see some minutes at the 2.

Small Forward: Rudy Gay vs Antoine Walker
Walker is reportedly out of shape but what else can Riley do but start him? Walker has always played well against the Grizzlies in the past and he will be a tough matchup for Rudy. Walker has unlimited range and uses his Barkley-esque butt to grab boards and bang in the middle. When on his game he is a very difficult matchup for anyone in the league. However with his eating habits that isn't usually a problem. Devin Green, Joel Anthony and Jeremy Richardson all may see minutes if Penny can't go. Casey Jacobsen should continue to get minutes if he continues his hot 3 pt shooting for the Grizzlies.

Power Forward: Hakim Warrick vs Udonis Haslem
Assuming Pau can't go in this game, and why should he since it is only preseason and he has played a lot this summer, Hakim will get an opportunity to show he can be physical enough to be a 4 in Iavaroni's offense. Hak's got to show he can defend as a PF, rebound as a PF and most importantly play within the team offensive structure. Haslem is a big boy and knows his role. Haslem plays defense and rebounds. Occasionally he shoots but only if he did his first two jobs well will Riley reward him with an attempt. Backing up Haslem is Alexander Johnson. The former Grizz was shockingly cut during the summer league and may have a little atttitude in this game. Heck he had attitude when he was playing for the Grizz. Expect to see more of Brian Cardinal in this game as welll.

Update: Graham Kendrick is reporting on Grizzlies.com's new GrizzBlogs section that Gasol won't play against the Heat due to his sprained ankle. There are some good quotes from Coach Iavaroni worth reading as well, so go check it out.

Center: Darko Milicic vs Shaquille O'Neal
Good news is this is preseason so Shaq shouldn't play long. The bad news is that Alonzo Mourning is backing up Shaq. The good news is that this is still preseason so Mourning shouldn't play that much either. The bad news is that former Tiger Earl Barron should play and that means more Memphis fans cheering for the opponents. The good news is this is a preseason game so no one will remember it next week. Darko has had trouble avoiding fouls, Stro has been inconsistent (shocking) and Memphis can't expect Andre Brown to be a big help against Miami's size.

Coaches: Marc Iavaroni vs Pat Riley
Student vs teacher. Iavaroni's first assistant coaching job was on Riley's staff in Miami. He should know Riley's offensive playbook so maybe the team can start shutting teams down, especially with DWade absent and so many others playing hurt. If Pau can go that would be a great outcome but more likely he won't. This will test Iavaroni's coaching skills to the max. Riley is a skilled coach who shouldn't have to much trouble with mixing and matching lineups with his experienced veterans on the bench.

UPDATE: Shaquille O'Neal is not making the trip to Memphis and will be out of the game. Also missing the trip are Alonzo Mourning, Michael Doleac, Wayne Simeon and Dwayne Wade. Riley announced that JWill, Antoine Walker and Udonis Haslem should each play over 30 minutes in the game.

NBA Previews - Central Division

Shades of Blue is pleased to be joining with several other team blogs in providing previews for CelticsBlog.com's NBA section. Be sure to take the time to read all these other quality blogs as they predict their team's future for the 2007/08 season.

Chicago Bulls
Cobra Brigade
Bull Riding

Cleveland Cavaliers
YAYSports!
The POJO Dojo
Cavalier Attitude
Truth in a Bullet Fedora

Detroit Pistons
PistonsNationBlog
Empty The Bench
Need4Sheed
Motoring

Indiana Pacers
Indy Cornrows
Pacers Pulse

Milwaukee Bucks
Bango's Bunch

Archives
CelticsBlog NBA Page

Memphis vs Indiana

Memphis returned home from Spain and looked extremely jet lagged in the first half. In fact they reminded fans of last season's squad more than this years. First they started only returning players and then they played Fratello's offense (45 pts) and Barone's defense (61 pts). This could also partly be due to the pathetic attendance in the Forum. The crowds was terrible. The second half saw a renewed emphasis on defense and faster play which showed results as the Grizzlies scored 56 points while surrendering only 32. The major bright spots were Juan Carlos Navarro and Rudy Gay who led the team in scoring and the fans in exciting plays.

Indiana stayed perfect in preseason with a 117-104 over the Hornets on Monday night in New Orleans. Old stars like Jermaine O'Neil (yes he is still with the Pacers despite off-season demands to be traded) and Jamal Tinsley combined with former Warriors Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu and Troy Murphy to power the team over the Hornets. The Pacers seemed to be a team on the decline last season but new coach Jim O'Brien has the team moving forward and seemingly on a straight path. All five starters scored in double figures against the Hornets and Diogu was perfect going 7-7 from the field and hitting all 5 of his free throws.

Point Guards; Damon Stoudamire vs Jamal Tinsley
One has to wonder how much longer Damon will hold off hard charging Kyle Lowry as the starter. Damon was outplayed again by Lowry against the T'Wolves and seems a step too slow to run the uptempo style that Iavaroni left in Phoenix. More importantly, Damon has never been a defensive minded point guard and Lowry is definitely defensive minded like Iavaroni. Mike Conley, the future starter, seems to be falling off the pace for starters minutes right now but at barely 20 yrs old the team can afford to be patient right now. Jamal Tinsley is a former Grizzlies draft pick traded to Atlanta and then to Indiana in the deal that brought Pau Gasol to Memphis. Tinsely has fought injury issues almost his entire career. When healthy Tinsely is a an excellent floor general who has a solid post up game. The new kid on the block at Indiana is Travis Diener. The former Marguette player escaped the backlog of points in Orlando and is seeking an increase in PT with the Pacers.

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Mike Dunleavy
The Rudy Gay experiment at the 2 probably ended last night. By the end of the game Rudy was playing more of a small 4 than even the 3 so expect Miller back starting at the SG against the Pacers. Unless of course Juan Carlos Navarro gets a start. Navarro is short and not a big defensive player but Dunleavy isn't an elite SG and maybe the Grizzlies will want to see what he can do defensively and offensively against mid-level NBA players. Just a thought. Dunleavy has been playing well in the preseason and has actually raised his scoring average since arriving in Indy to over 14 a game. Higher than he scored in Golden St. Backing up Mike is Andre Owens and Kareem Rush. They seem to be having a spirited competition for the #2 role with Marguis Daniels out of action.

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Danny Granger
This may be one of the best young SF matchups in the league today. Danny Granger enters his 3rd season as a double digit scorer and a good defender at the 3. Rudy Gay enters his second season as a double digit scorer and a good defender. Maybe they cancel each other out but it should be fun to watch either way. Rudy definately is the more talented but Granger is probably the more determined of the two. Backing up Granger is former Memphis Tiger Shawne Williams who struggled to find PT as a rookie and then ran into trouble with the law this summer. Williams seems to want to put both bad memories behind him as he is averaging nearly double his rookie scoring right now. Behind Rudy is not Tarence Kinsey. Casey Jacobsen is getting the extra minutes right now and that may be due to his greater range, may be due to Kinsey's injured shoulder or it may be due to his outplaying last year's surprise. No matter what it is Casey is getting the PT not TK.

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Jermaine O'Neal
It wasn't that long ago that Jermaine O'Neal was considered the hands down better player. Now after another disappointing season and a summer of discontent and trade demands from O'Neal, Gasol may have just past the older O'Neal straight up. Last season O'Neal saw his scoring drop for the 2nd consecutive season and he finished below the 20 pt a game mark for the first time since 2001-02, his first season in Indiana. Gasol on the other hand went over the 20 pt per game standard for the first time and outrebounded O'Neal as well. Two years younger than O'Neal and far less traveled, Gasol seems to still have upside while O'Neal has begun to slide. Backing up O'Neil is Ike Diogu. The Golden St washout has been reborn in Indy and seems to be making a charge at redemption. Gasol's backup is Hakim Warrick who looks lost in the new system but with his 3rd coach in less than a year that is understandable. Still at 25, Warrick needs to find his footing fast.

Centers: Stromile Swift vs Troy Murphy
There aren't many centers that are a more difficult guard for most bigs than Troy Murphy. With legitimate 3 pt range and a strong nose for rebounds Murphy gives even the best PF's a tough time. The key to Murphy's game is hustle. He simply outworks many of his opponents. Not a good sign for Stro who's toughness and effort have been questioned throughout his career. Stro is surprising some with his consistent ability to outplay Darko and hold onto the starting role but this is a contract year for Stro if he wants it to be. This could also be a tool by Iavaroni to motivate (or showcase) Stro and Darko. Jeff Foster is still hanging around as the traditional big man in Indy as well.

Coaches: Quick, who was the coach for new Grizz GM Chris Wallace's Boston Celtics team that lost in the Eastern Conference Finals? If you said current Indianapolis Head Coach Jim O'Brien give yourself a prize. O'Brien has coached for over 30 years and held the top job in Philly as well as Indy and Boston. Right now O'Brien has the team playing well but dissent has long been a trademark of O'Brien coached teams in the past and seeing O'Neal demanding a trade already isn't a good sign for the relationship between O'Brien and his star. Iavaroni has been getting sweaty with the team actually lacing it up on the court to show his big men what he wants them to do. Iavaroni's freer offensive sets have pleased the players as well. Now if he could just get the fans to notice.

NBA Previews - Atlantic Division

Shades of Blue is pleased to be joining with several other team blogs in providing previews for CelticsBlog.com's NBA section. We will be posting our preview on Monday, October 8th, so be sure to check back for our predictions for the Memphis Grizzlies as well as checking out some other quality blogs on what they expect from their teams. We will also have our roundtable discussion on the NBA and the Grizzlies up next week.

Celtics
Celtics Blog
LOY's Place
Celtics 17
Red's Army
Celtics 24/7
Green Bandwagon

Nets
Hooplah Nation
NetsDaily

Knicks
Straight Bangin'
Posting and Toasting

Sixers
Passion and Pride

Raptors
HoopsAddict/RaptorsHQ
HoopsAddict

Archives
CelticsBlog NBA Page

Roundtable Discussion, Part 1

The following is a roundtable discussion that occurred on September 25. This is Part 1 of a 3 part series. Be sure to leave feedback in the comments section. Due to the overwhelming length of these posts, they will be moved after the weekend, but I'll provide a link to each part for your viewing convenience.

Roundtable discussion, Part 1
Chip: New team, new coach, new season about to start. First question, let’s start at the end. How do you see the season ending?
Spartacus: I think, in all likelihood, we’re looking at 36-37 wins as the most likely scenario. We’re looking at 2 young PG’s. Navarro is a veteran overseas, but is still an NBA rookie, so we’re not sure how well he’ll go through that transition. Darko, for all intents and purposes is still a big question mark. He’s still unfulfilled potential at this point. Throw that in with a new coach and a new system and it’s an uncertain reality to face.
C: Well, we know what Darko can do to a ref’s family, but we don’t know what he can do on an NBA court.
S: Exactly.
Zack: I’m a little more optimistic. I was right around 36-38 wins, but I’ve bumped it up in the last couple weeks, looking at a win total in the low 40’s and grabbing one of those last playoff spots.
C: What do you see as the big difference that will allow us get a few extra wins to enter the playoff picture? You’re talking about an additional 5% upgrade over an 82 game season.
Z: I’ve downgraded my predictions on the rest of the West. Portland is a couple of games less now. I saw them as a playoff possibility before.
C: They still have LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, Brandon Roy, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez.
Z: They’re loaded with young talent, that’s for sure.
S: Darius Miles is supposed to be healthy now.
C: He is healthy and is supposed to come to camp without a contract.
Z: Well, physically healthy anyways.
C: Yeah, physically. Very good point. LOL
Z: The Clippers with Brand out. They’re looking at a repeat of the Grizzlies season last year.
S: Exactly. Especially with Sam Cassell sitting there looking at Boston going, “Please.....please”
C: Now wait a minute guys, we saw Chris Kaman this summer. He completely dominated the Grizzlies big men in Summer League. None of them are actually in the NBA now and I don’t think any of them are in any training camps...
S: Summer League All-Stars! They’re the biggest crock every year.
C: He at least admitted that he needed to improve and is showing signs of carrying that out. You’ve got to look at a team with Al Thornton, Corey Maggette...
Z: Al Thornton impressed me during the summer league.
C: Summer League All-Star here too. But he’s a 23-year old rookie.
S: He impressed me last year in college, too, though. He was a little older, a little more mature than everyone else.
C: I wonder how greatly the demise of the Clippers is being overstated. It’s hard to see how they won’t have an impact with the talent they still have on that roster.
S: I think everything rests on how Sam Cassell reacts to the situation.
C: What about Tim Thomas?
S: *snort* Uh..no.
C: Tim Thomas plays where all of a sudden you’ve got this weird situation where there are four outside shooters, a slashing point guard and a big man in the middle. I’ve heard some people think this is an effective way to play these days. Trying to get perimeter shooters with slashers and a big guy. Hmmm...who do we know doing that?
S: There’s nobody that does that. Well, not successfully of course!
Z: Going back to the original point, I see the Grizzlies grabbing one of those last playoff spots—the 6th, 7th, 8th spot that always seems to be up for grabs.
C: Last season’s 6th-8th spots were who?
Z: Golden State, the Lakers and Denver.
C: I look at those teams and wonder, where is the slide? Granted, the Lakers aren’t going to improve, but are they gonna slide? They do have one or two guys who can shoot.
Z: I think they’re going to slide, because they’ve got turmoil. They’re in a big media market ready to pounce—they’ll take anything they can get.
S: Who exactly were their big offseason acquisitions? They got Derek Fisher.
C: Which is a pretty good acquisition.
S: But other than that, what did they do?
C: They re-signed Luke Walton.
Z: They drafted a PG for the second year in a row, just like the Grizzlies.
C: They’ve got Jordan Farmar starting because they got rid of their starter from last season because Smush Parker is in Miami now.
Z: Javaris Crittendon is who they drafted.
C: I don’t have a lot of faith in rookie PG’s, as much as it pains me to say that.
S: And Crittendon is more of a scorer than a playmaker, whereas Farmar is the opposite.
Z: Then you have the Warriors losing Jason Richardson, which will definitely hurt them in the short term as they try to replace his scoring.
S: Losing Richardson and then waving good-bye to Jasikevicius, which means both of their SG’s are gone from last season.
Z: Baron Davis is wanting a contract extension.
C: He won’t get it.
S: And Monta Ellis probably stepping into the starting lineup.
Z: They’ve got some question marks, which is why I’ve got the Warriors and Lakers falling out of the postseason, even if Memphis doesn’t take their spot.
C: So, if someone was going to fall, you’ve got those two. Who do you see, other than the Grizzlies, potentially stepping up?
Z: You’ve got to like the Hornets.
S: We were talking about them earlier today. You almost have to like them. Peja is back healthy, they signed MoPete in the offseason and Tyson Chandler looks like he’s ready to just destroy the entire league on his own.
C: As long as he doesn’t have to shoot the ball anyways.
Z: And I really like David West. He hits that 15-ft. elbow shot all day long.
S: He’s like another P.J. Brown. He says, “I’m just going to sit out here all day long until you stop me”.
C: David West is an average PF who can take advantage of whatever you give him, but won’t enforce himself on anyone.
S: He’s not going to go down to the low post to bang around with everyone. Like Zack said, he’ll take that mid-range shot all night and at the end of the game you look at the stats and go, “Hey, West had 22 and 11. How did that happen?”
C: Offensive rebounds. He grabs 4-6 every game it seems, which allows him easy putbacks, so he doesn’t have to shoot that much to get his points. He’ll get points and rebounds, but he doesn’t seem to give you much else. Like David Berri said after reading Ryan Schwan’s Hornets blog—he’s average. But on the right team, an average player can be exceptional.
Z: I like their coach, too.
C: The Original Grizzly—Byron Scott.
Z: I think he’ll rally the troops. Even when they’ve had injuries, I thought he handled things well. A lot of the 82 game season is about who can deal with adversity. Who can suffer an injury to a key contributor and keep the momentum until that guy can make it back.
C: If I was going to say that there is one thing that scares me about calling the Hornets a lock for the playoffs, it is that they seem fragile. There isn’t a single player on their team that I would bet would play 80 games this year.
Z: Chris Paul, he’s so young, but he plays a style that lends itself to contact.
C: It’s such a physical game and he’s not really a physical specimen. You’ve also got Peja...
Z: History speaks for itself there.
C: But they’ve also got the ironman in MoPete. Until last season, he had the longest active consecutive game streak going. Of course, you find that when people break down, especially around the age of 30, it doesn’t seem to stop with just one injury.
S: It becomes a chronic problem, more often than not.
Z: Speaking of injuries, if there was one Western Conference team that you think is going to get the injury bug this year, who would it be? There’s always one.
S: Sacramento.
Z: I’m looking at Sacramento or Utah.
C: You know who I think? What do you look for when you look for potential injury bug? Players who play a lot of minutes.
Z: Rely heavily on one player.
C: Teams that have a preponderance of older players.
Z: And a short bench.
C: And a team that avoided injury the previous year. I’m picking the San Antonio Spurs. Nobody got hurt last year. They basically go 6 deep and they’re all over 40. You look at that team and go, “If Tim Duncan doesn’t go down, it probably doesn’t matter”. They did finish 3rd in the conference and 2nd in their division last year and still managed to be 1st overall. But you look at a team with Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, Manu Ginobili. Fabricio Oberto has already broken his jaw, his face, something like that. Tony Parker’s never been hurt, Tim Duncan is passing 30. Who else? That’s their 6 or 7 guys, right?
Z: So who is more valuable to them? Parker or Duncan?
C: Duncan in the regular season and Parker in the playoffs. Because Duncan, night in and night out, never seems to fail you. He’s going to do his job.
S: 25 and 10, just like clockwork.
C: Parker in the playoffs, just has so much speed that they more he wears out the opponent, the more effective he becomes. In a short series, I want Parker. Over 82 games, I want Tim Duncan.
S: With that speed that Parker brings, it frustrates a defense. And in a playoff series, where you know that you’re going to see the same guy the next night and the next night, it becomes a mental issue, which makes him even more effective. That’s why quick heady point guards destroy teams in the playoffs.
C: So my Glass Team, the Red Cross team to watch this year is the Spurs. It’s very hard to do it two years in a row.
S: Part of the reason why they’ve been prevented from winning consecutive titles. It seems like someone ends up with a nagging injury late in the season that affects their postseason performance. That’s what happened with Duncan two years ago when they lost to Dallas. He goes down towards the end of the year and never fully recovers in time for the playoffs.
Z: So who’s better—the Spurs, Mavs or Suns? They’ve been the top three for a few years now.
C: This is the first year that I see there being some weakness at the top. Not a lot, but it is there. Of the three, I think in the regular season, you have to say that the Dallas Mavericks have the best combination of depth and talent.
S: What did they have, 67 wins last year?
C: Yeah, and the only guy who could beat them was their former coach.
S: Did you read the post by Henry Abbott on TrueHoop today about them hiring Paul Westphal? The guy he quoted just absolutely destroyed them for that move. Apparently, he was a student at Pepperdine and believes that Westphal destroyed that program. He detailed the roster from 2 or 3 years ago, where there were 3 or 4 NBA level talents on the team and they finished below .500 in the WCC.
Z: And he was using John Calipari’s, well it was his (Westphal’s) “Attack, Attack, Attack” philosophy?
S: The guy went on to say that he had that much talent in one of the worst conferences in America and still ran the program into the ground? Why would you want him anywhere near your team?
C: The last time Dallas hired a former Phoenix coach, it didn’t end well. When John MacLeod came to Dallas, he had a great history of running a team from top to bottom. Then he promptly took a playoff team that made the Conference Finals in his first year and dropped them off a cliff. They won like 15 games by the time he was done with them. That’s why I’ve never been a fan of hiring former Phoenix coaches. Uhh..........Phoenix head coaches that is!
S: Nice save.
C: Well, we’ve kind of covered the West now. Can anyone stop Boston in the East?
Z: I think so.
S: We’ve gone over this before. I even had a blog post about it, because I’m not conceding the conference championship to Beantown just yet.
C: I’m not conceding the division to them yet.
S: They asked Jason Kidd about that the other day, if anyone can stop Boston. He said that Toronto won the division last year and all of a sudden everyone is counting them out. I’m not sure why. They’re a great team that’s only going to get better.
C: New Jersey is still solid, too.
S: Exactly what he said. He felt that his team still had a great shot. There are others in the East, too. With Miami, it would take...
C: A miracle?
S: Well, a healthy Shaq, Wade and a lot of help from their role players to beat the Celtics in a playoff series. I think that Chicago could potentially take anybody down in a best of 7, if they are clicking on all cylinders.
C: I think if any team can come up out of the East and truly be an elite team, you have to look at Chicago before you look at Boston.
S: Well, you can’t forget about Detroit either.
Z: I’m a big fan of the Pistons’ chances in the East. They are getting old and their days are numbered, but they’re still dangerous.
C: Is Webber coming back?
S: No, they are moving Rasheed over to center and starting Antonio McDyess at PF.
C: Interesting. I don’t think that will work, but we’ll see.
S: Here’s the thing though. With Sheed, you’ve got the one guy that Tim Duncan freely admits gives him absolute fits when they are matched up. That was at PF. You move him to C and he becomes the Mehmet Okur of the East, because McDyess can hit the midrange shot with consistency too. Can you see the frontcourt guys in the East following him out to the perimeter?
Z: I also really like the young wing guys for Detroit—Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey.
C: Summer League All-Stars again.
S: Not as much as you’d think. Afflalo I wasn’t as high on, but I detailed Stuckey in our draft preview. He’s just a flat-out scorer.
C: They’ll still have that typical rookie adjustment. (Speaking directly to Zack:) I can’t believe that you’re talking to me about Afflalo after I wrote about him over the summer and you chastised me about him. Don’t even talk to me about Arron Afflalo!
Z: I just didn’t like him college.
S: He looked good in college...just not in the tournament.
C: He was the only guy on their team that could score.
C: What will end first, the New York Knicks season or Isiah Thomas’ trial?
Z: You mean trials?
S: Yeah, are we including the future civil suits that will be forthcoming?
Z: I’ve been reading the headlines from this trial and it looks like something out of Penthouse. It’s unbelievable.
S: I don’t know. Like Chip has said before, if you have jurors falling asleep during proceedings, it can’t be that interesting.
C: I’ve never heard of a sexual harassment suit where people were falling asleep. That doesn’t seem to follow.
S: Of course, the clips they’ve had of Isiah and Starbury on The Fanhouse and Deadspin have been endlessly entertaining. Absolutely priceless.
Z: So who’s winning the East?
C: I’m going out on a limb and saying Chicago.
S: I think they are still a year away.
C: I thought they were a year away last year.
S: They still haven’t added any low-post scoring. That’s still holding them back.
C: Ben Wallace is currently enrolled in the Mark Price Shooting School.
S: I think Detroit does it as kind of a last hurrah before they begin a minor rebuilding phase. They need to rebuild their frontcourt.
C: You’ve got to face facts though. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball. The Patriots are a dynasty that’s gotten better. It’s obvious that it is a New England type of year. It’s happened once before where one city held all three major sports crowns at one time. It was a “Tiger Slam”, not a Bobby Jones Slam, as it spanned two calendar years, but they were all in possession at one time. It was the Knicks, Jets and Mets in 1969-70. Boston/New England has a really good shot at doing that this year.
Z: I’ve got to stick with the Central Division and go with the Pistons.
C: You’re not taking the Knicks? Interesting that nobody is taking the Heat. We haven’t even talked about Orlando.
S: They have to get an upgrade at PG. Jameer Nelson is not the answer if you want to go far in the playoffs.
C: They have an interesting situation where this coming summer all three of their PG’s will be free agents...and they have no money.
Z: They’re not talking with Nelson on an extension right now either.
S: They realize they have to get an upgrade, so they might be in the market for one of Houston’s 8 PG’s.
Z: What about the Cavs?
C: I don’t believe that they will be able to re-sign both Andersen Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, which makes them weaker right off the bat. Larry Hughes is still fragile and Big Z is getting older by the second. Drew Gooden is getting more and more confident, which is always a bad thing. LeBron James can only do so much. It was a fluke run last year. Let’s face it—how many times can he go out on a court and score 29 of the team’s last 30 points, including 25 straight? That was probably the best individual performance I’ve ever seen in an NBA game, and I’ve seen Dominique Wilkens and Larry Bird’s battles, and I saw Michael Jordan a hundred times. That game was the best effort by a single player I’ve ever seen, and it shocked Detroit so much that it cost them the series.
Z: And I think this is in spite of the coach not really utilizing LeBron in the best way. I never really liked what he’s done with LeBron to this point. Against the Spurs, he really took it to them in the post early in the first game...and then they never went back to it. I really question their coach more and more every time I watch them.
S: If you remember, it was about halfway through this past season, there were rumblings that LeBron was unhappy and thinking, “Hey, maybe I need a new coach here”. Then, all of a sudden, they go on a run, make the playoffs and the rest is history. That problem still remains though. I think that’s what is going to hold Boston back, as well. Doc Rivers is a (cue Bill Walton) H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E coach. He was a horrible coach in Orlando.
C: He got them to the playoffs.
S: And what happened then? They blow a 3-1 series lead against Detroit that began the futility that is Tracy McGrady’s quest to surpass the first round of the playoffs. Speaking of T-Mac, what do we think about Houston? Best offseason in the West?
Z: I think so, and I can’t believe that that package includes Stevie Francis.
C: That’s the key. I question whether or not they truly had the best offseason outside of Boston. I’ll play devil’s advocate here. They have something like 16 signed PG’s, right?
S: The only team with more is Portland, because they insist on getting one thrown in with every trade they make.
C: Yeah, but Portland hasn’t signed them all—they just own their rights. I mean, how do you see Steve Francis, Mike James, Rafer Alson and the kid from Oregon, Aaron Brooks, working together? That’s four PG’s and not nearly enough playing time to go around.
S: First of all, forget about Brooks. He’s a non-entity this year.
C: But he was a Summer League All-Star!
S: Point taken. Rafer Alston—they’ll find a way to either trade him or waive him.
C: Then you’re still left with Mike James and Steve Francis.
S: Which is OK if you’re bringing Steve Francis off the bench as your 6th man, saying “Hey, go out there and score”.
C: And Steve Francis is willing to accept that role.
S: I think if you let him know “We don’t want you to do anything but score”, I can’t imagine him not being OK with that.
C: Has he ever felt any team thought otherwise?
S: That’s just it. If he’s in the starting lineup, you can’t have him doing that. He has to be a playmaker/facillitator to get Yao Ming involved in the offense, first and foremost. That’s one thing I still don’t think they’ve grasped as the key to their success.
C: How does Yao fit in with Rick Adelman’s typical style of play? Again, everyone agreed that he’s a great hire...but is he the right hire for that team?
S: I think there are still a lot of questions about that, although his history with big men who can pass well—Divac, Webber, Miller—says that he’ll “work things out” just fine.
C: Then there’s McGrady. Has he ever made it through a season without injury concerns? And then we’re going to put him in an up-and-down the floor style of play with his bad back? You’ve got a 7’6” sloth at center. Let’s face it, he’s incredibly talented, but he is not fast. Big Jake beat him down the court for pete’s sake. Then you’ve got T-Mac and his back, Bubble Butt Bonzi and then Shane, who isn’t a speed merchant. And you want to play an uptempo pace?
Z: They might have the highest ceiling and the lowest low.
C: Exactly. I don’t really know what to expect from this team. As they get closer to the playoffs and realize that they’re destined for 3rd in the division...or maybe even 4th.
S: I don’t know. I could see them moving up to 2nd behind Dallas.
C: San Antonio breaks?
S: No, the Spurs realize, much like the Lakers did, that you don’t have to win 60+ games every year. You just have to make the playoffs and then take care of business. All they have to do is make the postseason.
C: Especially if they make the playoffs and then play Houston in the first round, because that’s a guaranteed win. LOL
Z: With Houston, I think the best recipe for success will be to have McGrady as the de facto PG. Even if he doesn’t bring the ball up the floor, in the half-court sets, he has the ball in his hands and makes the decisions.
C: That could work, because none of their PG’s are really pass-first playmakers. Of course, then you have McGrady and Shane......and backing them up, thinking he’s more talented than they are, unhappy Bonzi.
S: I don’t like having Rafer Alston on that team. I don’t like Bonzi on that team, because he’ll do what’s best for Bonzi at the expense of everyone else. The one thing that I think makes this the best offseason for them was getting Luis Scola. That move, by itself, the acquisition of a consistent low-post presence to put next to Yao is a tremendous upgrade over a Juwan Howard or an undersized guy like Chuck Hayes.
C: So, just so I’m clear, we’re saying their great move is bringing in a rookie international player?
S: Yeah. Well that, and bringing back Mike James and Steve Francis. Again, with all respect to Marc Stein’s rankings, I put us a close second in the West with the moves the Grizzlies made this offseason. I look at Seattle’s moves and just don’t see how their moves fit together.
C: I don’t see Seattle’s moves doing anything substantial for them for the next 24 months.
Z: I agree. While you can look at their moves and say, “Wow great moves”, in reality what they did was trade away proven talent now for potential in the future.
C: Potential at the same position with Durant and Green.
Z: Kurt Thomas was a nice pickup, as well as the additional draft picks that came with him.
C: That was a nice move on the Sonics part.
Z: Let’s say you make the same trade that Seattle did. Do you take Jeff Green at # 5 with Durant already being take at # 2? There’s a slew of choices at # 5 and you take another SF.
S: That’s exactly what we talked about the other day. How do you not take Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright or Yi Jianlian? Do you think Yi would have balked at being in Seattle?
C: Of course not. Jeff Green is the one guy I thought fit poorest alongside Durant.
Z: Didn’t I read that they’re going to play Durant at SG?
S: Sure did. A 6’10” SG that's the size of a # 2 pencil.
C: Well, you can’t play him under the basket.
S: You can put him at SF where his height still gives him an advantage over most guys. He’s not a physical player at all, though. It’s funny, because right now he’s looking more and more like Rashard Lewis....the guy Seattle just shipped out of town for a conditional 2nd round pick. I still cannot believe the contract that the Magic gave him.
--End Part 1--

Conceding Conference Championship to the Celtics? Not so fast.

I've seen it said on several websites, blogs and message boards that the Celtics are all but guaranteed to win the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA Championship. While they have accumulated an enormous amount of talent with their own "Big Three", I'm not quite prepared to just hand the Larry O'Brien to them just yet. I'm fully aware that they aren't done making moves and signing players, but since it is their Triumverate that has everyone so excited, let's take a look at how the Big Three really stack up against the rest of the East and break things down, shall we?

Detroit Pistons - Perhaps the best team in the East over the past 5 years, although they only have one title to show for it. Known for their defensive prowess, they proved it last season by holding Garnett to 16.5 PPG on .354 FG% (two games) and Allen to a .292 FG% in their only meeting. It should also be noted that the Celtics have no one to stop the offensive exploits of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton. Star power or not, I have to give the edge in this matchup to the Pistons.

Chicago Bulls - Another fine defensive team, they held Pierce to 13.3 PPG on .318 FG% (3 games), Allen to .321 FG% (one game) and Garnett to .395 FG% (two games) last season. The common refrain I've heard is that each of these players were the only "serious threat" on their teams, making it easier to key in on them. Well, that may have been the case last year, but with Hinrich, Nocioni, Deng and Big Ben manning the fort, I doubt they will find the prospect of facing the denizens of the Windy City any more welcoming. Hyperactive jumping beans Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah are sure to grab most of the loose balls within the zip code, limiting KG's dominance of the boards, as well. Plus, their defensive deficiencies will show up as a glaring weakness when Ben Gordon comes off the bench to light up the scoreboard. Edge: Bulls.

Toronto Raptors - With their uptempo pace and decided advantage in the youth/fresh legs department, it is hard not to like the chances of the Raptors vs. the aging Celtics. They managed to hold Garnett to .341 FG% last season in two meetings (both wins over the T'Wolves). The frontcourt of Bosh, Bargnani, Garbajosa and Nesterovic frustrated KG to no end, which is no great surprise since Bosh has developed into a younger, left-handed version of "The Big Ticket". The Raptors have had difficulty covering Pierce and Allen, but I think that this could prove to be a very close playoff series, were it to occur next May/June.

New Jersey Nets - Vince Carter vs. Ray Allen = Draw. Richard Jefferson vs. Paul Pierce = Draw. Kevin Garnett vs. Nenad Krstic/Jamaal Magloire/Josh Boone = KG. Jason Kidd vs. Anybody on the roster or that they might sign = Huge edge to Kidd. The Point Guard position is something that cannot be ignored, especially when you consider that the Celtics have Rajon Rondo and virtually no one else capable of playing that spot. Kidd's leadership and playmaking could turn this potential playoff series.

Miami Heat - Who's gonna stop Dwyane Wade? Who can contend with the Diesel...even at half-speed? Their PG situation is still shaky, but against the Celtics that's not a huge concern, now is it? If they can avoid the injury bug that torpedoed their season last year, then they could be right back in the thick of a title hunt as Shaq, Zo, Penny and GP look to ride off into the sunset. This is a tough matchup for the top teams in the West, so it goes without saying that the Celtics would have their hands full in a series with the former champs.

Cleveland Cavaliers - You didn't think that I'd forgotten about the defending conference champs, did you? While I don't believe that they'll be able to repeat last year's success, I think we've all seen that LeBron James has proven capable of being a one-man wrecking crew in the playoffs -- even against the best defensive teams in the East. The Celtics are not going to be a great defensive team, so it would surprise no one if LBJ reprises the role he played so masterfully in leading the Cavs to the NBA Finals.

That makes six teams that I believe are capable of beating the Celtics in a 7 game series in the postseason. Their defensive inadequacies and gaping hole at PG are going to be a huge roadblock for their title aspirations. I didn't even broach the subject of Head Coach Doc Rivers -- but it wouldn't surprise me to see Danny Ainge pull a Pat Riley and take over on the bench at some point this season. Of course, I could be wrong and the Celtics could be returned to their former status as one of the premier teams in the NBA by winning a title (or two). As they say, that's why they play the games.

Don't play poker with Danny Ainge

Right now, as in this very moment, I'm watching Kevin Garnett's news conference on ESPN News. I just finished reading the Sports Guy's column on Page 2 about Danny Ainge "going all-in with a jack-nine of spades after a flop yielded two more spades" in first acquiring Ray Allen on draft day and then getting that 5th spade on the river by having Garnett fall into his lap courtesy of old Celtic buddy Kevin McHale. Boston just went from being the second-worst team in the league last season to the favorite in their division (which isn't saying much) and a definite contender for the Eastern Conference crown (which is saying quite a bit more). Let's look at the team that Boston had at the end of the season and the team they have as of right now (knowing that more players will need to be signed).

2006/07 team: Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, Allan Ray, Michael Olowokandi, Theo Ratliff, Leon Powe, Kevin Pinkney

2007/08 team: Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Leon Powe, Glen Davis, Brandon Wallace, Gabe Pruitt

Here's what you should deduce from the differences in those two rosters: a lot more talent.....and no depth whatsoever at any position. The Celtics now have the talent to go deep in the playoffs, but there are still a lot of question marks facing them. Who is capable of running the point other than Rajon Rondo? Is Doc Rivers the right coach for this team? Can Kendrick Perkins do enough to keep KG from killing him prior to the All-Star break? Will Tony Allen be available to play this season after his injury history and legal issues? Will Pierce or Allen be the primary "go-to" guy in late game situations? Lots of questions and quite a few roster holes to fill over the next few months.

Danny Ainge came away the big winner in this situation, having saved his job and his reputation in New England, but I believe that Minnesota got a decent return for the face of their franchise for the past decade. They weren't in a position to build around Garnett any longer so, much like Philly did last year in trading away Allen Iverson (and vastly improving afterwards, it is worth noting), the Timberwolves decided to rebuild with youth that will center around promising young big man Al Jefferson. Combine the talents of Jefferson with players like Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and they could follow the pattern of success that the Chicago Bulls have had over the past few seasons. They will need to ship out players like Marko Jaric, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount to achieve the desired result, though.

I realize that I just stated that Minnesota was not a "loser" in this trade, but Danny Ainge just said something that forces me to reiterate that you should not, under any circumstances, play poker with this man. He was talking about how much time they had invested in Jefferson, Gomes, Green and Telfair and made mention of the "blood, sweat and tears" they had shared together over the past few seasons. He said it all with a straight face and showed nothing that even hinted of guile. That means that he either truly believes all the B.S. that just exited his mouth or he's even crazier than I had him pegged to be. Either way, he's not a man to be trifled with.

As a somewhat unrelated side note that will serve to close this post, don't you have to imagine that Isiah Thomas is hiding under his desk right now?