Declaration of War

A couple of days ago, my (former) good buddy at Hornets 24/7, Ryan Schwan, wrote a post decrying the horrific predictions that were foisted upon his team last year by the big media outlets and their sudden about-face this year. He then spent his final 340 words absolutely demoralizing the Grizzlies, while acting apologetic about it the entire time. Of course, this means that I must retaliate. But I like the way this Hornets team is put together and realize that they are definitely one of the top 2 teams in the West, so I cannot reciprocate in the same manner. That means I must tear apart his post -- word by word. Let's do it!

Flat out, the Grizzlies will be pushing to have one of the worst records of all time. Their veterans are the worst sort of dregs: Greg Buckner, Antoine Walker, and Marko Jaric. Useless, Cancer, Slacker.

The worst record of all time for an 82 game season is the 1972/73 Philadelphia 76ers who went an absolutely atrocious 9-73. The worst team last year, the tanking Miami Heat, went 15-67. I think the Grizz will be bad, but not historically bad. Definitely not, drink yourself into a stupor by halftime and drive your car off the New Bridge bad.


As for our lovely collection of veterans....Ryan does know that Marko "Slacker" Jaric can't be slacking that much if he's engaged to Adriana Lima. Right? I mean, c'mon! If he's a slacker, then I must be doing everything wrong.

Their frontcourt is horribly weak. Marc Gasol - if he makes a successful transition to the U.S. - is a good Oberto-like backup big, but other than Marc, there's no one to rebound or play in the paint. Darko has finally developed . . . into a foul- and injury-prone stiff. Hakim Warrick and Darrell Arthur provide no post presence and combined weigh as much as Marc Gasol, and the new Iranian import Haddadi is both raw and twenty-three, a bad combination.

I make no guarantees about how Marc Gasol will transition to the NBA. I can say that he will be 5 times as tough as his older brother, which is an excellent start. His decision to put Chris Bosh on his backside in the Olympics made me all warm and tingly inside last month.

Let's take a look at some stats. Player A averaged 7.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg in 22.5 mpg over 180 games. Player B averaged 7.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg in 22.1 ppg over 181 games. Look strikingly similar? Player A is Darko Milicic since he got traded to Orlando and actually got playing time. Player B is Tyson Chandler's first 3 years in the league -- the 3rd year was shortened by injury. If Darko's thumb injury that plagued him for most of last season makes him an injury-prone stiff, then I guess I'll take that with a grain of salt.

Hak is still Hak, so I can't dispute that he's a rail-thin Zach Randolph level black hole. What? Ryan didn't say that about him? My bad.

I have no idea what either Darrell Arthur or Hamed Haddadi will do at the NBA level, so I'll have to bow before Ryan's superior prognostications.

The Memphis guards aren't going to be tremendously better. OJ Mayo was simply not that good in college, and I already have doubts he'll ever be a top tier shooting guard in the league, much less be one in his rookie season. Mike Conley showed last year he was injury prone and merely okay when he wasn't hurt, Kyle Lowry showed he was fierce but limited, and Javaris Crittenton showed . . . well not a lot because he played so little - which is its own indictment.

You know, I thought the same thing about O.J. Mayo prior to the draft. But then I did a little research and came up with these numbers: 20.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 spg, .442 FG%, .409 3PT%. For a comparison, here's some stats: 20.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 spg, .390 FG%, 23.2 3PT%. Those are Allen Iverson's after his freshman season at Georgetown. I think we can upgrade him from "simply not that good" to "much better than perceived".

One season makes for an injury prone player? Does Ryan know what I know -- which is that Conley played most of last season with a bum shoulder, which is what contributed heavily to him being "merely okay"? He's no CP3, but he's not Sebastian Telfair either. I expect a marked improvement from Conley this season -- as long as he doesn't let my impending destruction of him on the bowling lanes affect him all year.

I agree about Lowry and Critt to this point.

That leaves Rudy Gay. He's a good scorer, but he's not all-around good, and he's probably not even a franchise player. Put him on the Hornets, and I'd rank him as only the fourth best player behind Paul, West and Chandler.

Wow. Just simply wow. 20 ppg, 6 rpg, a steal and a block per game aren't good enough to warrant an "all-around" tag nowadays? I understand that he's not a passer and should probably have slightly better numbers in the rebounds and blocks categories, but for a 2nd year player, I think we've placed expectations unreasonably high if those stats are to be an indictment, rather than a reason for praise.



As for where he would rank on the Hornets, if you put him with CP3 as his point guard, rather than a couple of rookies, he would be the 2nd best player as he would become Paul's new favorite target on the fastbreak. I like David West and Tyson Chandler, even as I watched them destroy the Grizzlies last season, but without Paul, they aren't nearly as good. It's like players who leave the company of Jason Kidd (coughKenyonMartincough) and suddenly prove just how dependent upon him they were. Rudy Gay was a 20 ppg scorer with little to no help from his teammates -- imagine what he would do with a premier setup man like Chris Paul feeding him.

And that's my entire problem with these Grizzlies. They have one player who could start for most of the teams of the league(Gay), four players that would be in a nine-man rotation because they are young and show promise(Conley, Lowry, Mayo, Gasol) and that's it. If they break 15 wins this season, I'll be impressed.

Yes, they are a young team. Just like the Hornets were 3 years ago and the Blazers were 2 years ago. Where are those two teams now? Oh, that's right, one is among the elite of the league and the other is expected to crash the postseason this year.

Bold (aka Foolish) Challenge: If the Grizzlies fail to win 15 games, I will end all of my posts next season with a link to Hornets 24/7 in the following sentence "Ryan Schwan is the greatest blogger in the history of mankind."

Now what do you have to offer in return? Consider the gauntlet to have been thrown down.

The opinions of this blog are not shared by the entire 3 Shades of Blue blogger staff. Some of us won't call Ryan the greatest blogger of all time even if the Grizzlies don't win 9 games this season!

The Trouble with Heisley

As I was finishing up the blog on the Chris Wallace interview I ended it saying that

Chris is a likable man that you want success for, not only because he runs our favorite team but because you feel an empathy toward Chris. He is the type of person you want success for.

His detractors biggest criticism has been he is too available to the media and that he does what the owners ask him to do. These are hardly negative character traits. It struck me later that this is different from how I feel about Michael Heisley.

Don't get me wrong -- I want the Grizzlies to succeed. I hope that every move the team makes turns out to be successful and the fans come back and all is well at the Forum again. Naturally, if that happens then Heisley will benefit tremendously.

I just don't care on an emotional level if Heisley succeeds or not. Emotionally, I want Chris to succeed. He's a great guy. Heisley may be a super person away from the franchise but as an owner he doesn't endear people to him in that way.

Micheal Heisley is an incredibly smart businessman. He is also one of the more difficult men I have ever talked to. Heisley is blunt and seems to have little or no concern for the feelings of the people who work with him, around him or even interview him. This gets him in trouble with reporters who take what he says and uses it in a way he may not have intended like the Adrian Wojnarowski article.

Heisley called me to clarify his comments after I emailed his office asking for an explanation. He also called the Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery. He did not call Chris Wallace to tell him that the quote was taken out of context. Heisley didn't call Wallace to inform his GM that he wasn't unhappy with the job he was doing. He left Wallace with no idea why he said that and what he meant by it.

Perhaps Heisley didn't feel that a phone call was needed. Perhaps he wanted to give Wallace that impression but didn't want it to appear that he said it. Perhaps he figured that Wallace knows how he feels and he didn't need to make amends for his comments, but as a good ole Southern boy I can tell you my parents didn't raise me that way. The first person I would have called wouldn't be a newspaper or a fan blog (even one as highly respected as ours has become). It would have been the person who was hurt by my words. I just wasn't raised to say something that could hurt someone's feelings and not apologize about it. Heck, I apologized to Adrian Wojnarowski about what I wrote in a blog about him and all I said was that he was a blogger looking for his 15 minutes of fame at the expense of the truth and the Memphis Grizzlies.

By the way, Adrian is an award winning writer and I was wrong to call him that and to belittle his reputation. I still don't agree with the article, but I was wrong to write it that way. So again I am apologizing.

The thing I can't say about Heisley is that he is a liar. I may dislike his view of things but I can't say that he is being untruthful as he sees it. At times, I just wonder how he sees things the way he does. I think Heisley's way of communicating is brutal but honest in other words.

He bullies people with his speech but that doesn't make him untrustworthy. I believe him when he says that the team tried to trade Gasol for equal talent and when that wasn't possible that the team decided to rebuild with youth and to get as much cap room as possible in the deal. I believe that Wallace brought him the deal he asked for. Heisley has been quoted saying Los Angeles offered him something no other team had in a a $9 million expiring salary. The draft picks will help and the players offered (Crittenton and Marc Gasol) could develop but the money off the bottom line is what Heisley wanted more than anything else. That was what he was offered from LA that no one else was willing to give.

Heisley may wonder if he could have gotten more (like an additional $5-6 million of expiring contracts for Brian Cardinal), but that doesn't mean he is unhappy with Chris's deal that he approved. I believe him when he says that that he is to blame for accepting the deal -- not Wallace. Wallace can't do a deal without Heisley's approval. These aren't the Jerry West days of Heisley being a hands off owner. These days Heisley has his fingers in almost every aspect of the club. If you are displeased with the deal, the fault lies with Heisley not Wallace. Wallace gave his employer exactly what he asked for.

Therein lies the problem too. What do we know about the franchise right now?

If we take Heisley to be an honest man, and I understand that a lot of people don't for whatever reason, then we know he wants to bring the Grizzlies back into contention using young players (presumable on their rookie contracts) and most importantly, to do so while remaining under the salary cap. Not the luxury tax but the salary cap. That is the line that only 3 teams are currently operating beneath (Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte).

Atlanta did make the playoffs last season using a team of young players with only one mega-contract (Joe Johnson). They also won only 37 games. Atlanta had some of the worst attendance figures in the league prior to last season when the playoff run propelled them up to 20th in the league, barely out of the bottom 3rd of the league and Atlanta has a lot more people than Memphis. Charlotte is 24th in the league and Memphis 29th. There does seem to be a connection between not having a league average payroll and drawing fans to the games. The connection isn't a pretty one either.

Only three teams made the playoffs in 2008 whose team payroll was in the bottom third of the league (Utah, Orlando and Atlanta). Again there seems to be a connection between being competitive and paying competitive salaries. If we take Heisley at his word, and again I have found no reason not to, then you can expect the Grizzlies to be among the lowest in attendance and out of the playoffs for the next few years. Memphis is not looking to spend money for a mega-contract player like Rashard Lewis or Carlos Boozer unless he has two traits: a young age and a known ability to put people in the seats.

By the way, those type of players don't grow on trees and they are even rarer to find via free agency.

So it is highly unlikely that Memphis will be able to attract such a player to this team via free agency. The best way to find such a player is via the draft. If the Grizzlies should somehow win the lottery one day, get a sure fire superstar in the draft and swing a deal to acquire an experienced veteran to team with the young guns then Memphis could buck the trend and produce wins despite a low salary and no experience. Until then I wouldn't expect much to change around the Forum.

And I wouldn't expect a phone call from Mr. Heisley apologizing either.

Addendum: Mr. Heisley was on the Sportsbar after this blog was completed if you want to hear what he said.

A Blogger Among Men

As I mentioned in the draft workout blog, yesterday I was an invited guest at the Grizzlies workouts with Omar Casspi, Devon Jefferson and Charles Rhodes.

I felt like a fish out of water. Like a child among men. I didn't exactly feel comfortable if you get my drift.

Here I was sitting next to Chris Herrington and Chris Vernon, just a few seats away from Ron Tillery, Jarvis Greer and a slew of other well-known journalists and media personalities watching these big, young men getting put through the ringers and thinking "what the heck am I doing here?" I write a blog after all. I am not in these guys league.

I have said many times that I don't really know how to judge talent coming out of college. Well in college at least they are playing the game of basketball. What these guys did looked more like some medieval torture drill or Navy Seal training exercises. What the heck can these people determine from watching someone running up and down the court dribbling a ball as fast as they can? How can they determine who is going to be able to play in the NBA this way? I can dribble the ball up and down the court and not lose control of it with either hand AND I CAN'T PLAY BASKETBALL!

I'm serious. I couldn't make my high school team. I did make the final cut once but these guys are supposed to be slightly better than that yet watching the drills I couldn't tell you who was better among the three men much less whether or not they could make it in the NBA. They were running from drill to drill, alternating from a rapid fire shooting exercise from the perimeter, to one on one 'contact drills' which was an understatement to say the least. Professional wrestlers don't make as much as much contact as these guys did.

And it never really slowed down. One drill ended and another began and I was trying to see something that would make me say 'AHA. That is what I want to see in someone trying to make the Grizzlies.' It never came. Sure I saw some incredible plays by all three of the players but whether that makes them more interesting than a Casey Jacobson or Andre Brown I have no clue.

It really is more art than science. Sure guys took measurements and kept times and supposedly the players took a psychological profile test earlier in the morning but Chris Wallace, Gene Bartow, Tony Barone Jr and Sr were watching these drills intensely. They weren't chatting with the media or talking on the phone. They were watching and looking for clues from how hard the players drove the ball to how hard they charged for a rebound to how many free throws they could hit and I have no idea what they are using as a comparison and how anything I saw could help them make a decision.

Then it got worse.

The workout ended and we were told the players were now available for interviews. What they heck was I going to ask Omar Casspi who plays in Israel? Chris Herrington asked if he had to complete his military service. I didn't know he had military service. Damn what should I ask? I just stood there like a slug on the sidewalk.

What was I doing here?

When Chris Wallace came out to field questions I suddenly found myself surrounded by cameras and microphones. Probably intelligently I stepped out of their way before I was run over. They asked Chris a number of questions about the recent comments from Heisley (Mr. Heisley is free to say what he wants but I am happy with the trade and believe the team got the best deal offered), how he thought the players did (all of them worked hard and showed us a lot. None of these players were being considered for the #5 pick but all could be taken in the draft) and the such.

It was very surreal.

I want to thank Chris Vernon, Chris Herrington, Chris Wallace and especially Dustin Krugel for helping as much as possible to make me feel welcome and at ease. It didn't help a lot but it was nice of them to try. I really am not sure I belong at these events. I have nothing to add. Maybe if MemphisX or Zack were there they could garner something from these workouts but I sure didn't.

Not that I won't be back on Monday watching Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, Joey Dorsey and Javale McGee battling it out. I may be a fish out of water but I'm not stupid after all!

Number Five is Alive!

A few thoughts on the draft lottery, if you will.

I know that several fans are unhappy with the results of Tuesday night's NBA Draft Lottery. I'm not among them. In fact, when Chip asked me what my preference was prior to the lottery taking place, I told him that I wanted the #2 or #5 pick. My reasoning for the #2 is simple and should be obvious: With the #2 pick, the Grizzlies get to select whoever remains from Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose. I know that most teams (other than Minnesota, who doesn't need a PF like Beasley) would be happy with either of those players, despite what Pat Riley has intimated about trading the pick if Derrick Rose isn't there (total poppycock, by the way -- more on that later).

If the Grizzlies had been fortunate enough to receive that pick, then the decision would have effectively been made for them, similar to how Seattle recently wound up with Kevin Durant, after Portland selected Greg Oden #1 overall. Of course, having the #1 pick would have had a lot of extra pressure given that Derrick Rose is Memphis' favorite son after leading the Tigers to the national title game less than two months ago. The Grizzlies selected Mike Conley with the #4 pick last year and took Kyle Lowry with the #24 pick the year before that, so they have some quality PG's already on the roster. At the risk of drawing Zack's ire, I'll also mention that both Javaris Crittenton and Juan Carlos Navarro are capable of filling in at PG if needed, in my opinion. So if there is one position that the Grizzlies shouldn't be looking at when assessing their draft needs, Point Guard is that area. I know that some people will clamor that there is no way you can pass up a "potential Hall of Famer" just because you have a good, young player already at that position. I agree with that stance -- I just disagree that Derrick Rose fits that label. (Ducking beer bottles being chucked at me by Tiger fans everywhere.) My evaluation of Rose is that he will be a great player in the league for the next decade, but I do not believe that he will be the Top 5 player overall that so many fans have rated him to be already. I'll gladly go point-by-point on his strengths and weaknesses in my pre-draft rankings that will be coming soon, so save your howls and jeers for that future post.

Now that we have that out of the way, let me explain why I wanted the #5 pick, instead of the #3 or #4. There are two players currently being rated in the Top 10 by many draft sites and experts that scare the ever-lovin' crap out of me: Brook Lopez and O.J. Mayo. I said in a previous post that when I look at Brook Lopez, I see a solid starter, but nothing special -- certainly nothing transcendent that is worthy of a top five selection. Lopez's game is based upon achieving great positioning around the basket. He was able to do that in college due to having superior size to many of his opponents, but the NBA is full of guys that are every bit as big and strong as he is. He won't be Michael Olowokandi, Eric Montross, Cherokee Parks or Jerome James, as he does possess some quality basketball skills, but he's not going to be David Robinson either. I see him being a solid big man like Zydrunas Ilgauskas as a best case scenario. If he can concentrate on rebounding and develop the wide range of offensive moves that Big Z has, then he could wind up matching his career averages of 14.5 ppg and 7.9 rpg, which is a very solid career indeed.

I also said that when I look at O.J. Mayo, I see Steve Francis. Stevie Franchise was a great player at one time -- but he was never a "winner". He put up tremendous stats for the first 7 seasons of his career, but the fact remains that Houston got markedly better and Orlando got noticeably worse after the Francis for McGrady trade. I see several of the same attributes in Mayo that I witnessed in Francis, both in terms of skillset and personality. With the right mix of players and coaches surrounding him, Mayo could turn out to be a tremendous, MVP-level player. But unless that "perfect scenario" happens, I don't see it happening and would rather not have this franchise set back by making the wrong choice with another high lottery pick. We already selected Steve Francis once -- remember?

Earlier, I said that Riley's assertion that he would be open to trading the pick if Rose wasn't available, because "they have a pretty good PF" already was ludicrous. Here's why: Shawn Marion is a great all-around player, let there be no doubt about that. Even if he doesn't opt out of the last year of his contract, Shawn Marion just turned 30 years old this month and there have been whispers about his athleticism starting to wane, which is a very bad thing for a player whose game is predicated on being more athletic than an overwhelming majority of his opponents. Furthermore, why wouldn't a team want to take the talented Michael Beasley, who appears to be capable of playing either forward position, meaning that the Heat could trot out Wade/Beasley/Marion in the same lineup if they desired. Of course, I fully expect the Chicago Bulls to take Beasley at #1 overall, so Miami will likely get the player they appear to covet, which will (as usual) render all my ramblings meaningless. The point is, either Pat Riley is full of mularkey or he truly has gone insane and believes that he'll be able to duplicate what the Boston Celtics did this past offseason in turning the worst team in the Eastern Conference into a title contender practically overnight. At this juncture, I'd make that bet a 50-50 proposition, since the hair gel has to be affecting his brain waves by now.

Rest assured, we'll have plenty of player evaluations, mock drafts and the always entertaining "what Team X should do/what Team X will do" posts for the next month. And, of course, I'll be sure to talk endlessly about who I think the Grizzlies should select with each pick or if they might be better off trading down. Make sure to vote in the polls on the right-hand sidebar so that we know who you think the "right" pick is and, as always, let me know what you think in the Comments.

Links: Evaluation, Nuggets Blogs, Blogger Ban

Empty the Bench has taken on the task of evaluating the teams that won't be making the postseason this year (a thankless job, if ever there was one). Yesterday, they tackled the Memphis Grizzlies. ETB didn't mince words or pull any punches, which is just the way we like our analysis: harsh and accurate. It is a great read that I urge all of you to take a look at.

Both Nugg Doctor and Fire George Karl are pleased with last night's win, if somewhat unimpressed with the opponent. Hard to blame them on either count.

I'm sure all of you bloggers out there have already heard about the Dallas Mavericks imposing a Blogger Ban on their locker room. We have read everyone else's responses to this point (Hardwood Paroxysm, TrueHoop, et al) and agree with much of what has been said. Of course, as it so happens, we here at 3SoB have been politely asked to refrain from contacting anyone within the Grizzlies organization after our initial sitdown with Chris Wallace, even as we continue to provide some of the best coverage of the team outside of the lone newspaper in town. We have abided by that, even as other teams give blogs more access that we have ever dreamed of requesting. I have no problem with teams protecting themselves from media outlets that would seek to release damaging information (true, false or otherwise) acquired from "insider access". In fact, I wholeheartedly support it. However, as has been pointed out, writers from the "established media" should be held to the same standards that they accuse bloggers of not reaching. After all, if I had a nickel for every Sam Smith or Peter Vescey rumor that never panned out, I could afford to do nothing but write this blog every day. The media landscape is changing and it is time for "media targets" to not only realize it, but to accept it and adapt accordingly.

Blog of the day: Pete Pranica (Grizz Blogs)

Chemacterility???

...San Antonio's organization, to its never-ending credit, values chemistry and goodguymanship (I just made that word up) over everything else.

Here's the defining why-the-Spurs-win-and-keep-winning story: They gave away Luis Scola this summer not just for luxury tax reasons, but because they were afraid that Scola, a No. 1 scoring option for Argentina's national team as well as the Euro leagues, wouldn't be able to adjust to playing 20-25 minutes a game as a supporting guy on a great team. They didn't even want to take the chance that he'd mess them up. So they shipped him out. What's even more fascinating is the Spurs have won four titles (and counting) with a specific strategy that nobody else emulated until Boston voyaged down the same defense-character-chemistry path this season. And the Celtics are 20-2 right now. Hmmmm.

When I initially read this little diddy from ESPN's Bill Simmons' NBA Player Valuation article, it stuck with me. It is not that Spurs and Celtics are the only teams that are dedicated to this mantra. It is what the Pistons have used and are using right now. It is what Portland is building with Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.

It seems that having some great basketball in Boston for a change has enlightened Simmons because he started off the New Year with an entire article on this same subject while also coining a new word...Chemacterility.

Here's the new mantra for savvy NBA teams: "Chemacterility." Why haven't you heard the term before? Because I just made it up. But it's an amalgam of three concepts that have formed the foundation of the Duncan era in San Antonio: chemistry, character and (cap) flexibility. As soon as Duncan arrived, in 1997, Popovich and Buford began to avoid bad guys and bad contracts, preferring role players, quality guys and short-term deals. They're so fanatic about chemistry that when Luis Scola jumped to the NBA this summer, they traded his rights, partly because they weren't sure he could adjust from being a star in Spain to being a supporting player here. They didn't even want to take the chance he'd screw them up!

Just like Simmons, some things should be obvious for an NBA GM getting a million dollar plus salary to try and build a champion. Either NBA owners are not fans of the game or they just real stupid. If every media outlet, blog and fan message board are screaming that a draft pick or contract is horrible the second it scrolls across ESPN then what is the point of being a 'former player' or having a scouting department?

There are four assets available to NBA GMs in building a roster: draft picks, salary exceptions, cap space, and roster slots. Every NBA team has equal access to all four assets and NBA GMs that mismanage even one of the four usually send their teams into a tailspin eventually. Now this usually leads to the GM being fired but unfortunately, the problems the fired GM created remain after he is long gone (and working in the league office...Stu Jackson). This is what Memphis Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace is about to have to deal with in the 2008 trade deadline and offseason.

The first thing a new GM needs to do is reset the four assets back to neutrality or as close to possible. Unfortunately, sometimes this requires making some hard decisions. This is why I liked the Darko Milicic signing. It followed one of my NBA GM RULES: Never sign a marginal talent to a contract for more than three years. So regardless of if Darko develops or not, the Grizzlies are not saddled down with an untradeable player which hampers you in any and all trade discussions by limiting your options.

The mismanagement of the four assets is what turned the Grizzlies from an up and coming playoff team, back into a bottom of the barrel lottery team. Draft picks were wasted, salary cap exemptions were given to bad players, and roster slots were filled with players that couldn't contribute in the present or the future. Mismanagement of the four assets is the first sign that the walls are coming down. It is what is happening in Phoenix right now but is masked because the have so much talent at the top of that roster. However, the Suns will be a lottery team by the 2011 draft. They have wasted draft picks, given out bad contracts and they lack salary cap flexibility. The smart move for them is to start the rebuilding process this summer especially if Shawn Marion is foolish enough to opt out of his contract.

Back to the Grizzlies...

What will Chris Wallace do? Regardless of what we want to say to fool ourselves, the Grizzlies are a bad team with a poor roster makeup. We lack defensive minded players, we have a lot of money tied into players in suits (your inactive list shouldn't equate to a near MAX contract), and our two highest paid players are Pau Gasol and Mike Miller. If his response is to wait three years until all those contracts roll of the cap, he will spend a lot of time in the forum alone. It is not possible to build a contender with the Grizzlies roster and salary structure unless Rudy Gay and Michael Conley become All NBA level players on their rookie contracts. Possible but not bloody likely.

I know most will counter with the fact that in Portland; Steve Francis, Raef LaFrentz, Darius Miles and Joe Przyzbilla are their four highest paid players. However, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard (former San Antonio Spurs scout) took over prior to the 2006 draft (plus LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy minus Sebastian Telfair). The cost for turning Telfair into Brandon Roy was taking on Raef LaFrentz's contract. Steve Francis is a result of sending Zach Randolph to purgatory and due to injuries Miles and Przyzbilla remain on the pay roll. After next season, I am betting that all four well be gone even if it does mean buying out Miles.

If Wallace truly is interested in bringing a parade to Beale Street then some tough decisions have to be made that go beyond talent. The Grizzlies have to get back to a state in which they are maximizing all four of their assets. Until then, we will continue our annual trip through mediocrity...or worse.

The Face of Failure

The beginning of the end of Pau Gasol’s tenure as a Memphis Grizzlies came during the 2006 playoffs. With the Grizzlies feeling the weight of an 0-10 playoff record, the Grizzlies went toe to toe with the Dallas Mavericks inside the FedEx Forum for 53 minutes. The defining moment came when Pau Gasol stepped to the free throw line and actually double clutched a free throw. To me it seemed like he was shook. From then until now, Pau Gasol’s heart has not been in Memphis and the majority of the fans in Memphis have had very little love for the talented Spanish 7 footer.

When Pau came back from the World Championships injured and demanding a trade, the relationship between him and the fans became even more strained. Gasol took the beating for most of the ills of the organization on and off the court. Heck, I am shocked he wasn’t blamed for the Grizzlies not winning the NBA draft lottery. Pau and his game has become symbolic for everything that was wrong with the team: poor rebounding, poor defensively, and relatively soft. He became the ugly face of the franchise.

After his performance against the Hornets in front of the home crowd, I hope that Chris Wallace is actively exploring trading Gasol. If Gasol is on the team after the trade deadline and the Grizzlies continue to lose, the damage to the psyche of the Grizzlies fan base might be beyond repair. At some point, the Grizzlies have to at least try to do something different.

In New York or Chicago, it might be OK to be the highest paid player and just be a cog in the machine. In fact, it might not be such a problem in Memphis except Pau has been here his entire career. Sort of like Rasheed Wallace in Detroit, it really didn’t matter that he made more money than Ben Wallace and Chauncey because they had already established themselves as the leaders of the Pistons and the faces of the franchise. However, expectations in Portland were different for Sheed. I think the same can happen for Gasol in another city. I just don’t think he can handle the pressure and responsibility that comes along with being The Man.

This is not to say that Pau Gasol is to blame for the problems of the Memphis Grizzlies. He is just symbolic of that failure. As the face of the franchise, he stands a 7 foot reminder of all the frustrations of the sub 30 win seasons and the 0-12 playoff record. Only the impossible could lift Gasol's burden. This team simply does not have the talent to compete at a level that would deflect criticism from Gasol. It was that way when he was drafted and has remained that way throughout the bulk of his Memphis career. I expect that burden has started to make the bumps and bruises he routinely played through just a little more unbearable.

For added proof , New Orleans post game marked the first time in Pau’s entire Memphis career that he used an injury to explain away a poor performance. Gasol has played through countless injuries in Memphis, some much more serious than his jammed toe. However, this crutch and his denial of boos aimed at him are signs that the situation in Memphis is about to come to a head.

Another problem that Marc Iavaroni and Chris Wallace should keep their eye on is the terrible body language on the court. Especially the body language of Rudy Gay, who seemed to be totally disgusted with the play of the team as a whole and the mounting losses. I know all players get frustrated with losing but the way the Grizzlies are losing has to be extra frustrating. Getting pimped slap on your home court is one thing; having Chris Paul stay in the game just so he can score 40 points is another. How the hell do you not put him on his back when he drives to the hole specifically to pad his stats on your home court?

Iavaroni and Damon Stoudamire can harp on toughness all they want but like I said 5 games into the season, you have to change the culture of this team through personnel moves. The most significant move that can be made is to move Gasol. Moving Gasol sends a statement that the Grizzlies are changing directions. Six weeks later my words are still fitting:

I just wonder how much longer Iavaroni and Wallace are going to try and sell us this pig in a poke. Nobody in Memphis believes that Gasol is taking this organization anywhere but the NBA draft lottery. For them to keep giving lip service to the contrary makes them seem dishonest at best and incompetent at worst. I have yet to find a single Grizzlies fan in Memphis that thinks Gasol lead us to any significant success in the NBA. I just wonder if the Grizzlies brain trust is going to let this organization flop and flounder without direction on into next offseason and then attempt to make moves. Does Chris Wallace have the balls to move Gasol sooner rather than later? We will see…

The Future of the Memphis Grizzlies: Business vs. Basketball

What is the future of NBA basketball in Memphis?

Don't worry -- this isn't one of those doomsday pieces that proclaims that the Grizzlies will be moving next year to Las Vegas, Kansas City, St. Louis or whever else that uninformed people conjure up as a viable relocation site. No, this is going to be a frank look at what the only "big time" pro sports franchise in Memphis needs to do to stay here beyond the city's lease with them.

The idea for this sprang from the dissatisfaction that rained down on franchise player Pau Gasol on Wednesday night from the meager gathering of fans at the FedEx Forum. It was originally going to be a frank look at whether or not it was truly time to part ways with the talented Spaniard. Then I decided that the issue was much larger than the presence or absence of just one player. We will start with Gasol though, as he is one of the lynchpins that is holding this convoluted mess together right now. Right now, fans are voicing their displeasure with him (and the team) by booing him during games and by staying away from games en masse. While the first part is troubling, it is understandable. The second part though, is more than just troubling -- it is an issue that has to be addressed and rectified. The team cannot survive in Memphis without fan support.

Is Pau the problem? This is his 7th season in Memphis and he has been the best player every single season. However, as has been noted before, he is better suited to being the #2 option on a consistent playoff contender. Grizzlies fans long ago soured on him being the man who would lead them to the Promised Land -- have they now given up on him being suited up in Beale Street Blue altogether? If that is truly the case and the emergence of Rudy Gay, as well as the potential of Michael Conley are no longer enough to persuade fans to come out to games or that Pau can be a vital part of future success, then he must be moved....and soon. From a business perspective, if something is obviously negatively affecting attendance, then that issue should be dealt with ASAP. Last year, it resulted in the firing of Mike Fratello -- this year it could be the trade of Pau. As Geoff Calkins noted and Gary Parrish recently told me, trading Pau could be the "shake-up move" that puts the team on the right path to title contention. For the record, I still believe that a trio of Rudy/Conley/Pau can contend with the right pieces around them -- namely a defensive stopper at SG (think Raja Bell) and a big man that looks a lot like Darko on his good nights. So, from a basketball standpoint, I think it makes sense to keep him unless presented with an obviously beneficial offer from another team, which means more than Chicago's package of Nocioni/Thomas/draft pick from where I sit. In any case, it is blindingly apparent that something needs to happen to change the perception that this team is adrift with no heading.

That brings me to the next player -- Mike Miller. I've advocated having the former Sixth Man of the Year return to that role, with either Tarence Kinsey (preseason) or Juan Carlos Navarro taking the starting role at SG. I think having his size and scoring ability off the bench at two positions (SG/SF) gives the team greater flexibility. Also, that has always helped to mask his deficiencies as a defender, while maximizing his abilities and strengths. Miller is one of those guys that is a fan favorite wherever he plays, but is also the source of constant criticism from fans who want him to be more than what he is, which is a fantastic role player who doesn't have a defined role as a starter. If the Grizzlies can have him return to his role off the bench, then I'd love to keep him around for the next 4-5 years. Otherwise, I'd have no problem moving him for a shot-blocking big man (is Marcus Camby still available?), a defensive minded SG (Mickael Pietrus, Ronnie Brewer) or a young talented player not currently being afforded playing time (Thabo Sefolosha and Ime Udoka come to mind). I'll even admit that Tom Ziller's piece this preseason might not have been as off-target as I originally thought, although I still shudder to think about trading Miller for an expiring contract and/or a draft pick. This would definitely be classified as a basketball decision, as I don't believe that Miller's play/contract/presence is keeping many fans away.

Other obvious basketball decisions would be the trade of Damon Stoudamire once Conley proves to be healthy and ready to start and the trade of either Stromile Swift (opt-out clause for this offseason) or Hakim Warrick (solid on offense, subpar in nearly everything else), perhaps both of them if a big name could be procured. I realize that Hak has a lot of fans, but he's too skinny to be a PF, doesn't have the skills to play SF and has proven to be mostly one-dimensional to this point in his career. That would not be a bad thing if one plans to be a role player off the bench for an entire career, but unless you're a perimeter player who can score in bunches like Ben Gordon, it isn't going to have too many people excited about paying you a big salary or making you an integral part of their team. These are all moves that should be made prior to the trade deadline, if at all possible.

In my opinion, the most important thing to impart unto fans is not just hope, but something that shows them the direction of the team, a move or statement that gives them tangible evidence that this organization has a plan and will follow through with it. That could mean the trade of Damon and Stro or something far more significant, such as the trade of Mike or Pau. This organization has to establish a plan for the future and let the fanbase know what that plan is. Otherwise, we will all be witness to the self-fulfilling prophecy that is the current state of things, where would-be fans sit around and say "I'm not going to invest time in this team, because they will be leaving town". Well, if you don't support the team, then they will leave eventually. Not tomorrow, not next year and not before the lease is up, but they will leave if there isn't enough support for them. I could preach about the importance of Michael Heisley selling to the local owners, about what the organization needs to do in terms of marketing and sales or about why the loss of Andy Dolich could very well be the first coffin nail. I still believe that what the team does on the court matters more than any of those other things though. When a team wins consistently, gets better each season and makes strides towards being a title contender, the fans will support it, whether the team calls Memphis home, or San Antonio, Sacramento, Toronto or Charlotte. When that happens, petty complaints about concessions, dance teams, ticket prices, location of block parties and halftime shows seem to subside to the point of extinction, as watching a winning team becomes the reason to show up to the arena. Trade Gasol or don't, trade Miller or don't, trade whomever or don't -- once the 50-game evaluation period is up, this team needs to make some moves and be clear about their direction before it digs itself too big a hole to climb out of with its fanbase.

Bulls vs. Celtics and Faux contending

It is interesting the course the 2007-08 NBA season has taken with the firing of Chicago Bull's head coach Scott Skiles and the dominance of the Boston Celtics. It seems that the importance of top level talent over depth has become even more apparent. (I have a feeling the Grizz fans are well aware of this notion.) Kobe and KG have already shown that one player, no matter how great they are, can not carry a team to contention alone. LeBron seemingly defied that logic until the Cavs ran into the Spurs and the difference between the Eastern and Western conferences was made clear. Even Yao and T Mac are struggling to carry a less than stellar supporting cast in Houston. However, three All Star level talents, even when supported by inexperienced players short on talent can propel you into the upper echelon of the NBA.

Obvious? Ok. I am bringing this up because I think my "trade Pau or bust" stance is quite misguided. It has nothing to do with whether Pau is good enough to be a 1st or 2nd option, whether he can defend, or how he closes out games. Pau is a legit All Star level talent in a top level talent driven league. As such, the only acceptable trade is another All Star level talent that is more in line with the age of Rudy Gay and Michael Conley.

My change in stance has nothing to do with Gasol's performance against Philadelphia, it was simply a realization, after taking a step back from the season and a third of losing, of how difficult it is to acquire or develop that talented of a player and how unimportant depth is on the grand scale of the NBA. Rotations get so tight during the playoffs that it doesn't matter what your 9th or 10th man can provide.

It would have been nice if the Grizzlies could have gotten a Chris Paul type of rookie season from Michael Conley but until he actually playus productively for thirty minutes a night, I will remain hopeful but skeptical. Also, it seems that the other big acquisition in the 2007 offseason, Darko Milicic, is having problems with his confidence. This is not good to read about the guy that was supposed to be our defensive enforcer. Can you even imagine Bill Laimbeer giving those excuses in a freaking interview with a journalist from an opponents city?

So what do I think Chris Wallace should do? I think the Grizzlies fans deserve for them to make a decision. Either fully rebuild the team around Rudy Gay and Michael Conley and take the pain for the next two seasons or build a fake contender by adding a veteran player on this team that can elevate the Grizzlies into the playoffs and possibly top out with the 2nd round in the next 2-3 seasons. I think you do the former by trading Gasol and Brian Cardinal for a young All Star level talent like Luol Deng (I know, I know) and the latter by adding some of our short contracts (Damon or Stromile) and/or young players (Lowry or Warrick) to Mike Miller for an upgrade on the wing either offensively (Vince Carter) or defensively (AK47).


I think these are the two options for this organization. It makes no sense or difference to change fringe players when your coach has already stated and shown a preference for playing an eight man rotation. Any thing less is wheel spinning and setting us up for getting mired in the muck of mediocrity that Jerry West said was the bane of NBA teams.

Word of the Day: Evaluation

With a nod to our friends over at Basketbawful, I'm going to borrow one of their mainstay titles for this post.

Most Grizzlies followers are aware that Head Coach Marc Iavaroni (along with GM Chris Wallace) said at the beginning of the season that it would take 50 games to properly evaluate this team and determine who truly belongs and can be part of the future, and who will not be part of that move back to the postseason. Many fans were calling for an end to that evaluation process 5 games into the season as they denounced the acquisitions of Casey Jacobsen and Juan Carlos Navarro and called for the trades of seemingly everyone not named Rudy Gay.

Well, we are now 27 games into the season and just past to the halfway point of that evaluation period. What do we know so far? We know that Rudy Gay is becoming the star that Jerry West promised us when he made the trade netting him on draft day last summer. We know that rookie point guards still struggle (Kyle Lowry) and over-the-hill veteran point guards don't learn new tricks (Damon Stoudamire). We know that Darko Milicic is a good (maybe great) low-post defender, but needs a healthy left hand to score with any regularity. We know that Brian Cardinal still looks good in a suit. We know that Andre Brown can contribute when called upon, as he evidenced against my pick for NBA MVP Dwight Howard on Saturday night. We know that Stro is still Stro. We know that Tarence Kinsey is still a fan favorite, even as he seeks another team to catch on with. We know that Juan Carlos Navarro can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. We know that Casey Jacobsen is the team's best blogger. We know that people expect way too much from Michael Conley right out of the gate. We know that Hakim Warrick can still score and rebound. We know that Mike Miller still has the most interesting hairdo on the team. We know that Pau Gasol is Sam Smith's favorite Grizzly now that Shane Battier is a Rocket.

Now why is any of this important? Well, while I was doing my daily check of The Fanhouse last week, I saw a post by Bethlehem Shoals about the Phoenix Suns titled Suns Brass Getting Restless. Apparently, there are those in the Suns' front office that are behaving a lot like the Grizzlies online fanbase, in that there is a split about what to do with plenty on the fence.

NBA sources say the Suns brain trust is split between those who want to give this team another shot at success, those who think it's now time for a major move and those who are on the fence after only 24 games.

If that doesn't sound familiar enough, how about his line from GM Steve Kerr:

"If we're ever going to be a championship team, we have to improve defensively."

I find it interesting that a team that is 17-7 and has legitimate title aspirations is facing the same basic issues as a team which is 7-16 and coming off a league worst 60 losses last season. Want me to make the circle complete? Here you go:

"We're watching this run of games against top competition (Utah, New Orleans, San Antonio and Dallas) very carefully. We've been talking about it but we talk all the time. Are there are concerns? Sure. I'd say we're definitely in evaluation mode," Kerr said.

Evaluation mode, huh? Well, well, well, it seems that where Iavaroni came from isn't that much different from where he went to in terms of question marks. For the record, Shoals came to the conclusion about the Suns that many outspoken Grizzlies fans have arrived at:

Maybe this season's start -- which has them looking good, but not dominant -- was the wake-up call the franchise needed. With the rampage over, it's time to face facts, and maybe shake things up before it's too late.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock. What is that sound?

OR

Waiting for Gasol

The film aficionados among you will immediately recognize the movie poster above and probably get the reference instantaneously. For the rest of you, settle in while I explain.

Since his outstanding rookie season, Pau Gasol has been the center of attention in Memphis. He posted 17.8 ppg on .518 FG% and .709 FT% to go with 8.9 rpg, 2.7 apg and 2.1 bpg in his inaugural campaign. He went from a virtually unknown international player to the best player on a fledgling recently relocated NBA franchise. The Grizzlies organization did their part to make sure that Gasol and fellow rookie Shane Battier got plenty of exposure in a unique campaign for the Rookie of the Year award that Pau collected in a landslide vote. They even created a comic book for these two young players. The thought was that these two would be the foundation for a perennial playoff contender that could eventually become a legitimate championship team. The next year saw the addition of former Rookie of the Year Mike Miller, forming a trio that was "The Core" of the Grizzlies -- the future of the organization and the key to success.

Well, it turned out that his rookie campaign was Battier's best season from a statistical perspective as he posted career highs in PPG, RPG and APG. He was still seen as the consummate team player that he was touted to be coming out of college, but no one considered him to be anything more than a solid defensive player who was capable of being a "glue guy" for a title contender when he was traded to the Houston Rockets for the rights to draft pick Rudy Gay and recently departed Stromile Swift. The face of the franchise was no longer wearing Beale Street Blue.

The season that followed was a dark time for Grizzlies' fans, as it started off without Gasol who was suffering from an injury he suffered while in international competition, missing the first month and a half, and it ended with an NBA worst 60 losses and a draft pick that wasn't #1 or #2, leaving them out of the hunt for either of the potential superstars-in-waiting, Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.

Pau had his best statistical season, but questions that had cropped up here and there in past seasons about his ability to lead a team suddenly became full-fledged accusations and indictments while the team awaited his return from injury. The complaints were mostly of the same vein: "Pau isn't clutch", "Pau doesn't deserve a max contract", "Pau cannot lead this team", "We need to trade Pau". Then the news of Pau's conversation with majority owner Michael Heisley was leaked and all hell broke loose....quite literally. Fans who were already starting to question Pau and his ability to be a star player turned on him and the organization as they suffered their worst season since leaving Vancouver. Attendance dropped as the team lost more games and the trade rumors flew around the Internet, sending Gasol everywhere from Chicago to L.A. to the YMCA in Tulsa.

Through this morose period of Grizz fandom, a few fans preached patience, telling others to wait for Rudy Gay to develop and to see how good young PG Kyle Lowry might be upon his return from injury. I agreed with those people then and I still agree with them now, as I see the potential that Rudy, Kyle, Darko Milicic, Juan Carlos Navarro and Michael Conley all possess. However, if you look closely, there are two prominent names missing from that list: Pau Gasol and Mike Miller. Honestly, I should have titled this post "Waiting for Gasol and Miller", but that didn't fit the movie reference.

Speaking of which, now is the time to explain that. In Waiting for Guffman, a small-town theater company puts on an elaborate show in the hopes that a well-known critic by the name of Mort Guffman will see it and "discover" them. Alas, it was not to be as Guffman's flight got canceled and he missed the show. What does that have to do with Gasol and Miller? If you are waiting on the two of them to develop into great late-game performers, you can stop now. If you are waiting on them to become prolific scorers capable of taking games over single-handedly, you can stop now. If you are waiting on either of them to become the leader this team desperately needs, you can stop now. You can stop now because they aren't going to become any of that. They are who we thought they were. They are great players, but they are not superstars and they never will be.



Now, I said all of that to say this. Just because they aren't superstars doesn't mean we should trade them for 15 cents on the dollar. There is nothing wrong with having a Pau Gasol or a Mike Miller on a team that you plan on shaping into a playoff participant. There are those out there that will tell you that having either of them somehow instantly dooms your team. That's rubbish. If we simply gave either of them to the Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Pistons, Celtics or Magic, would that somehow make them a worse team? Not bloody likely. There are also those who would tell you that it doesn't make sense to have a max player who isn't the leader of the team and the best player. Also poppycock in my book. Shawn Marion is the highest paid player in Phoenix and is arguably the third best player on the roster. Shaq has been the second best player in Miami since he got there with his $20 million a year contract. Dirk Nowitzki appears to have taken a lesser role in Dallas due to the emergence of Josh Howard, but I don't see them calling for him to be traded every day. Dwight Howard will make less than Rashard Lewis each of the next six seasons. You could even make the argument that as important as Tim Duncan is to San Antonio's aspirations to a title repeat that both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have passed him by in terms of night-in, night-out performance.

So while having Pau (or Mike) on your team doesn't immediately doom them, that doesn't mean you continue to build around them. If Rudy Gay is truly the "superstar" level talent that Jerry West claimed and if Michael Conley truly is the next Tony Parker or Chris Paul, is it really going to be a detriment to this team to have Pau Gasol around? Just because you decide not to continue to build around someone doesn't mean you have to trade them as if they were suddenly worthless. If we must trade Mike Miller to get a more defensive minded G/F to start alongside Rudy, then so be it. But I don't see that many teams winning playoff games without having low-post scoring (ask Chicago and Dallas about that). The undeniable chemistry that Pau and Darko have when on the court at the same time gives me great hope for the starting frontcourt that has long been a weakness for the Grizzlies. So while I'm done waiting for Gasol to be the #1 guy in Memphis, I have no problem accepting him as the #2....or even #3 guy if it results in postseason success in the long run. But I'm still willing to be patient with this team -- even if not everyone shares that viewpoint.

First Quarter Report

It has been a disappointing first quarter for the Memphis Grizzlies and their new coach Marc Iavaroni. Almost halfway into Iavaroni’s 50 game evaluation period, the Grizzlies are 6-14. They are last in the Southwest division and 13th (out of 15) in the Western Conference. At the time of this writing, the Grizzlies would have the 5th most lottery combinations in the NBA. Contrary to popular belief, the Grizzlies schedule has been middle of the pack at 13th overall according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings.

For a coach coming into his first NBA gig preaching the importance of defense, the first quarter of the season had to be a huge disappointment for the 1st year coach. The Grizzlies rank at the bottom of the league in almost every significant defensive category. The Grizzlies rank 28th in points allowed, 29th in FG% against, 27th in 3 point FG% against, 26th in rebounding differential, and 28th in opponents turnovers. However, the most damning statistic on the relationship between coaching philosophy and this current Grizzlies roster is the Grizzlies rank dead last in steals per game.

This shows that exactly why I hate this current Grizzlies roster and can’t wait for GM Chris Wallace to turn it over. This team does not do the three things essential for winning consistently in the NBA. This team does not (1) defend, (2) rebound, or (3) play hard on a nightly basis. Like I said during preseason, the Grizzlies simply lack the personnel to do those three things collectively. This is further compounded by not having any elite offensive talents on the roster. In other words, this team is built to go nowhere and they are right on course.

1st Quarter Awards

MVP: Rudy Gay

Defensive Player: Darko Milicic

Biggest surprise: The development of Rudy Gay as an offensive force

Biggest disappointment: Team wide lack of defensive effort

Favorite moment: Juan Carlos Navarro's 8 three pointers off the bench

Worst moment: David West's buzzer beater in overtime

Reasonable Expectations

See? Now you respect me, because I’m a threat. That’s the way it works.

Syndrome
The Incredibles


In the entire history of Grizzlies basketball, we have never been a threat. We are in the 13th season and nothing, nada, zippo. Only one All Star in the first 12 seasons. Dwindling attendance. Lackluster and indifferent fan base. Currently 3-9 and coming off a blowout loss to the World Champion San Antonio Spurs. Yes, it is a long way from Halloween when we played the Spurs closely. As the season wears on and the losses mount (look at December’s schedule), there is one underlying theme as the Grizzlies face the better teams…we are not a threat.

When discussing the Grizzlies, especially with regards to roster moves, the vision is for building a contender for the Larry O’Brien trophy. It is not about building a “competitive” team or a playoff contender. It is about a team that is at least on the level that the Utah Jazz is currently. Might not be a championship favorite but a team that is considered to have a chance if things break right. So the question that needs to be answered is what type of talent do the Grizzlies need to compete at that level?

When starting this conversation, it is good to refer to an article written about two years ago that covered what it takes to win in the NBA from a historic perspective. When referring to this article, it shows you the #1 reason why the Grizz have failed to build a contender. The Grizzlies have not built the team from the top down. What this means is that the past GMs of the Grizzlies have been more concerned with overall depth than the quality of the players at the top. Another shortcoming is that Grizzlies management has not valued acquiring players that defend the goal over shooters.

BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM

STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar
Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons.

Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players.

Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender.

STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two) Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection.

STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend. No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender.

Now this article is not THE reference for building an NBA champion, but history should not be ignored. The key to winning in the NBA is not size, depth, defense, or scoring. The key to winning is top-level talent. Ask Phoenix if size and defense is the key to contending. Ask Boston if depth is essential to contending. Ask Detroit if you need elite scorers to contend. See I am not asking for or expecting an NBA title. I just want to enter the conversation.

Coach Iavaroni has already stated that he would prefer an 8 or 9 man rotation. So in essence, we should have 6 roster spots that we should not even discuss except in theoretical playoff match up terms such as having an extra big if we had to deal with Greg Oden or an extra long perimeter defender to disrupt Kevin Durant. Did you catch that? Yes, that is how far away this roster is from making the jump into the upper 25% of the league. I think this is the reality that must set in for us. We are at least 3 years away.

These three years assumes that Gay, Lowry, Conley and Darko progress as expected. In this time the Grizzlies should have a top 7 pick in 2008, to be a borderline playoff team in 2009, a playoff team in 2010 and to go into the 2010-11 season as a threat to make the Western Conference finals. So with that timeline it is more important to find players that fit the team our coach wants to build. A team that attacks on both ends of the court, athletic, and able to shoot proficiently from the perimeter is what Coach Iavaroni emphasized. Tarence Kinsey doesn’t count because he should not be in your top 8 or 9.

In my estimation, we have players 3 through 6 in our future contending rotation: (3) Michael Conley, (4) Rudy Gay, (5) Darko Milicic, and (6) Kyle Lowry. So we need use the rest of our assets in getting two big time players: one a glass eating (10+ rebounder) interior defender and the other a perimeter shot maker in the mold of the upper echelon wings in the league. Nothing else matters.

Now the chance of acquiring an age appropriate (25 and under), established “superstar” via trade is virtually impossible. So that leaves the draft, free agency and trading for a potential superstar before they have blossomed. Players that fit the mold we should be looking for: Gilbert Arenas, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Emeka Okafor, Andris Biedrens, DeAndre Jordan, Tyrus Thomas, and Josh Smith.

In other words, the two types of players needed are a perimeter player capable of eventually giving you a consistent 20 to 25 points a night with range and without being a defensive liability and an interior player capable of pulling down 10 to 15 rebounds per night while scoring in double figures with good enough hands that the team can use him to run the pick and roll and playing good defense. These two guys don’t guarantee a championship but they elevate the Grizzlies into contention. Isn’t that all a Grizzlies fan could ask for at this point?

Time for a Culture Change: Trade Pau Gasol

Well it seems a good start was a little to much to ask for. The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-4 after an early season road trip through the weakest part of the Western Conference in the Pacific Northwest. The Grizzlies managed to scratch out a win against the winless, homeless Seattle Sonics. The problem is that the Grizz looked pitiful in all three games on the road trip and fell behind by double digits in all 3 games. If Iavaroni wanted this team’s calling card to be defense then the squad has yet to get the message. Grizz fans should have expected growing pains with a young team and first time coach but the problems for the Grizzlies were not unfamiliar to the fans.

Another disturbing trend is the play of Pau Gasol. Gasol hasn’t cracked the 20-point barrier since opening night and has seemed lackluster at best on the road trip except for the first half against Portland. Now the rumblings are that Gasol is playing through back and ankle injuries. However, why was he able to play so well the first half against Portland?

In all honesty, it doesn’t really matter does it? Search deep down inside. Do you honestly think that a team led by Pau Gasol is going to be highly successful in the NBA? When you see him sprawled out in the lane after any and all contact does it inspire you to future championship thoughts? I understand that Pau Gasol is the greatest player in Memphis Grizzlies history. Is that really that special? Is our history so grand that we should be holding on to Gasol? Do you really think that it is a coincidence that our teams strengths and weaknesses mirror his?

I think it is time for the organization to move in a different direction. It is time to trade Pau Gasol. No, it is past time. The optimal time would have been this summer but it is not to late and the Grizz are in better position with the emergence of Rudy Gay.

It seems when talk turns to trading Gasol, the first thing people want to say is that Memphis has to get equal value. I really don’t think that is as important as changing the culture of the team. It is not like trading Gasol is the same as trading Shaq. Memphis will be getting rid of a player that has led them to three lottery finishes and zero playoff victories. Are we to close to the team to see that Pau Gasol is not much better than other power forwards that seemed to be future stars such as: Antoine Walker, Juwan Howard, and Antawn Jamison. Heck, the Hornets, Raptors and Magic have recovered from trading even better players while Memphis was in the playoffs and have all leap frogged the Grizzlies in profile.

I predicted 35 wins for the Memphis Grizzlies this season and I think this figure could be reached even if Gasol is dealt. It reminds me of the Kevin Garnett situation. Do you really need Gasol and the $51 million+ left on his contract to make another lottery appearance?

Marc Iavaroni wants a tough, defensive team that runs and uses its athleticism to put pressure on opponents at both ends of the court. That sounds like a team built around Rudy Gay and Michael Conley not Pau Gasol. If you want to cultivate a team that is defense oriented and mentally tough, how can your best player not have those qualities?

Leaping to Contention: The Talent Gap

Some times you get much more than you bargained for when you stay up late watching NBA league pass. Last night I had the chance to watch Chris Paul and the healthy New Orleans Hornets dismantle a pretty good Los Angeles Lakers team that was playing well coming into the game and actually played well during the game. The Lakers lost by 14 on their home court. Seeing Chris Paul slice through the Lakers defense and dishing out a Hornet’s record 21 assists, Peja turn back the hands of time to the 2003-04, and the rest of the supporting cast hit shot after shot while Tyson Chandler controlled the paint late after early foul trouble was a humbling experience for me as a Grizzlies fan.

Although after watching the preseason, I did not think the Grizzlies were a playoff team, watching the Hornets sort of confirmed it for me. The problem for the Grizzlies is that we are stuck in limbo and like Jerry West before him; GM Chris Wallace seems reluctant to cut bait with some members of our roster (see Presti, Sam in Seattle) to improve the long-term future of the franchise. What I mean by limbo is that we are not good enough to be contenders (heck we are not good enough to make the playoffs) and the teams at the bottom of the Western Conference are led by high level young talent that the Grizzlies simply do not have on the roster.

To put this in perspective, Peja Stojakovic is probably the Hornets second best player. At Mike Miller’s age he was 2nd team All NBA, 4th in the MVP voting and averaging 24 points per game. This is the history of the Hornets, a perspective 7th or 8th seeded team, second best player who is still in his prime. He looked like that Peja in his movements vs. the Lakers. The point of this is that Peja has had a more prolific NBA career than our best player and he is the second best player on the Hornets.

Oh, I know this is where you want to chime in and talk about Rudy Gay and his future development. Well, the Hornets have their own Rudy Gay in rookie Julian Wright. An athletic long SF/PF from a big time program that had a disappointing second year that dropped him in the draft. Sound familiar?

The entire point I am making is that there simply is not enough talent on our roster at this point to have any expectation of contending in the near future (within 3 years). I expect we could become what we were if some of our young talent does develop. So if that is the conclusion (and it is a fair one), why was there such a universal declaration of love for our roster by our new GM? How do we take the quantum leap needed to get to contention with midland draft picks, no cap room, and a reservation to trade our players?

Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and Darko Milicic are a good start to putting some talent with Pau Gasol but we need our 5th starter to be an All Star. That is the type of talent level you have to have if you want to compete at the highest level of the NBA. Do you think Mike Miller can reach that level of play? This road trip is going to go a long ways to answering some questions. Was last year a product of playing on a bad team? Can Miller be as aggressive with his shot as he has been on the defensive boards? I will be watching Mike, starting tonight in Seattle.

Draft at NBA.com No Fantasy

If you have read my rantings in the past you will know that I am prone to use satire as a way of conveying a point. Well at least most of you do. Some people seem incapable of recognizing that about me. As a general rule you should assume I am being sarcastic when reading anything I write but the pre-game commentary. For that you can assume I am just ill-informed.

The following recreation of our Fantasy Basketball Draft is unfortuantly not satirical. It is an accurate re-creation of how a fantasy league was ruined by a computer from NBA.com.

NBA.com advertised it had the ability to renew a league from one season to the next. NBA.com states that you can have keeper leagues. NBA.com allows you to make your own divisions, write your own schedule, create your own home page. I thought that sounded great. In theory it is great. You simply go to the previous seasons participants and say 'hey let's do this again!' I had a great league last year with 16 teams, everyone was allowed to keep one player from the previous season (an attempt to reward smart drafting and to maintain an air of continuity) but not too much of an advantage for one great draft. Everyone was excited about the upcoming season.

The problems began almost immediately. I sent the invitations out yet 2 or 3 of the players couldn't sign in. I had to delete teams and then re-invite them. This made tracking previous rosters very difficult. Those that could sign in were assigned duplicate teams. The computer wasn't recognizing the previous season's teams.

First bad omen.

Of course this is pretty difficult for a computer without a large amount of Artificial intelligence to realize. So I did all the extra work without complaint. I didn't complain but the other guys in the league were gettting pissed off. Still I should have recognized the signs right off the bat.

Since I had signed up so early for the league I had a prime draft slot at 8:00 pm CST on Monday night. Or so it seemed. A week before the draft it suddenly changed to Wednesday night at 8:00 pm. Not only was this after the regular season began but in the middle of the home opener for the Grizzlies. That late the only time we could draft was Thursday night. Three days after the start of the season.

Second bad omen.

Still everything was cool. That is until 45 minutes before the draft when another member of the league couldn't sign in. I had to delete the team and re-invite them right before the draft was to start! I got it done but there went my calm pre-draft review and preparation time.

Third bad omen.

Still everyone was excited and we got ready to do the draft. That is when the entire system collapsed. Maybe it was the keepers that screwed everything up. The players being kept (including such players as Pau Gasol, Al Jefferson, Deron Williams and Luol Deng) were still on everyone's draft list! Damn. They were supposed to be blocked so no one would draft someone's keeper. I shot an email off to NBA.com. They replied that in the pre-draft signin period the draft hadn't actually begun and that these players would be removed once the draft started. That seemed needlessly confusing but I accepted that reason.

Fourth and final bad omen.

I know the sign of the devil is 666 but three bad omens should have told me that something was drastically wrong here. By the time the fourth omen arose it was way past time to reconsider. It's like those photos from the movie 'The Omen'. If you wait until the shadow crosses your neck you aren't going to make it.

So the draft begins and almost immediately people start saying their draft board is acting funny. People can't get the draft player button to work properly, people are being thrown off-line and all kinds of weird things are happening. Worst of all, some teams draft players but it doesn't show up on the master list of drafted players. People taken remain on the master list of available players and teams are drafting players that the owners didn't want.

Basically it was terrible. I'm talking old testament type stuff here. fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanos, the dead rising from the grave human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together --- mass hysteria to paraphrase Bill Murray.

Someone came up with the idea of refreshing the screens so we tried that but that didn't work either. We finally abandoned the draft and opened a new league over at Yahoo. Everyone is pissed and now we have to start almost two weeks late.

Thanks so much NBA.com.

And to think I used to believe the refs were the only major screwups in the NBA.