Being Brandon Roy

by MemphisX
Training camp opens for 30 NBA teams in various parts of the United States in a little over a week. Some teams have already assembled informally and began their preparations for the 2008-09 season. For a select few, this will mark their first foray into the world of NBA basketball. No more school books on the road trips, it is time to grow up on and off the court.

From this point forward, draft position means nothing. All that matters is what you do or don't do when the ball is tossed up. The 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year race looks to be a highly competitive affair. Unlike last season when Kevin Durant's only challenger was the Atlanta Hawks Al Horford. This season there seems to be five players which a very good chance at making a run for the rookie of the year trophy (The Brandon Roy Trophy from this point forward).

To be a serious threat to win the rookie of the year award depends as much on opportunity as talent. It is hard to put up the numbers riding the bench and their are no points awarded for being on a good team. So some players, like Eric Gordon and Jerryd Bayless, are going to have a hard time even getting in the mix due to the minute crunch they will face on their teams.


So here are my top five candidates for the 2009 Brandon Roy Trophy:


The Favorite - Greg Oden

Most of the preseason prognosticators will tell you to be patient with Oden because he is coming off the dreaded microfracture surgery. However, microfracture is about to go the way of the ACL injury. As medical information catches up with the proper way to rehab from the injury, the recovery process is quicker and nearly 100%. Also, all microfractures are not equal. I am big on Oden. He was considered a generational big man coming into the league. He is in the mold of Shaq, Duncan, David Robinson, and Patrick Ewing. He is simply going to be dominant and most likely it will start to surface before the calander hits 2009. Oden is big, quick, long and has great hands. He is physical around the rim like Shaq and strong enough to get position even on NBA veterans. Him and Roy should be deadly running the pick and roll, especially with the amount of shooters/scorers Portland can put around them. Although Oden's post moves are not refined, his ability to establish position should allow him to get to spots in which he is comfortable. With that said, Oden will shine the brightest on defense. His presence alone is going to change the way opponents are ABLE to attack the Trailblazers. His athleticism and shot blocking ability will be unmatched. Only foul trouble and a cautious Nate McMillan will keep him under 3 blocks per game. His numbers and the fact that Portland will most likely exceed the modest expectations of the NBA media minds will put him at the front of the race. He will also get plenty of national TV time to make his case.


The Producer - Micheal Beasley
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After dominating college basketball, it seemed a forgone conclusion the Beasley would be the #1 pick until Derrick Rose put on a show in the NCAA tournament. Rose was also helped by the fact that his hometown team got the #1 pick. However, it must be said that Beasley's reputation might of cost him the #1 pick in the mind of quite a few NBA executives. Known as more of a prankster than a gangster, Beasley's NBA career is already off to a dubious start. However, the negatives do not overshadow the positives Beasley will bring to Miami. Beasley is a flat out scoring machine. Beasley gets buckets in bunches. His offense is diverse. He can finish well with either hand. As an undersized power forward, he has shown an ability to post up bigger players. He has the skill to also take bigger power forwards off the dribble and enough of a handle and athleticism to get away with spot minutes at small forward where he would be able to punish most in the paint. Beasley has a set of vacuums for hands and catches everything around him. This also works for him when rebounding. He should be long, strong and athletic enough to make an impact on the boards even as a rookie. The best thing about being in Miami for Beasley is the presence of a rejuvenated and healthy Dwyane Wade. This allows Beasley to play off of a superior scorer and relieves him of any leadership duties he would have found on most lottery teams. This means that Beasley will rarely face the double teams he would have in another city.

The Phenom - O. J. Mayo

Mayo has been in the spotlight for what seems like a decade to those that follow college hoops recruiting. Billed as the next LeBron James, his lack of over the top athleticism will probably keep him from reach those heights. However, it can't be said that Mayo lacks the skill. Perhaps one of the deadliest shooting strokes of a top notch prospect in quite some time, Mayo should open up the lane for Pau...err Marc Gasol. Most of Mayo's previous billing was due to him being projected as a big point guard. However, at USC he excelled as a shooting guard and in Memphis he will be asked to step into the role vacated by Mike Miller. In summer league, Mayo was allowed to run the point and that was met with disappointing results. He seemed to turn the ball over and lack the understanding on how to run an offense. However, the Memphis summer league (back to back to back to back to back) was not a proper venue to judge his future ability to transition to the point. With the glut of point guards in Memphis at this time, I think most of Mayo's time will be spent at shooting guard where there is a big hole for playing time and shot attempts. The departure of Miller and Juan Carlos Navarro, leave 20 shot attempts and about 51 minutes available at shooting guard. You do the math. Mayo will have the opportunity to produce big time numbers if he is capable and history has shown him to be an elite player on every level he has played. His lack of national exposure will hurt against the top 2 guys but his cult like Internet following will drum up some buzz if he is producing.


The Homeboy - Derrick Rose
It might seem that Rose will be facing a minute crunch and with Ben Gordon's situation unresolved, he might. However, Rose was the #1 pick for a reason...his athletic tools. Rose is probably the most breath taking fast break engineer since a young Jason Kidd hit the NBA. His speed with the ball is unmatched, even by players much smaller than him. His off the charts jumping and finishing ability allow him to play the role of the one man fast break. I expect that once Gordon is signed that Chicago will make moves to clear up the logjam in the backcourt to allow Rose to get his feet wet. Keeping Kirk Hinrich should ease Rose's transition into the NBA, as he will be allowed to play off the ball some and learn something from Hinrich on defensive intensity. Rose should be a triple double threat if given 30 minutes a night because he is a very good rebounder for a guard. If his shot comes around like it started to in college and he avoids injury, by virtue of being the #1 pick, Rose has a shot.


The Underdog - Kevin Love


Just looking at Kevin Love,you would think he was an end of the 1st round type of guy...that is until the game begins. Once on the floor in a team setting, Love starts to shine. His feel for the game is uncanny. He has become an outlet passing and halfcourt shot making legend. However, don't confuse Love with being a hustle player. He is a highly skilled offensive machine. Capable of taking college players in the post, he has to show that will translate to the NBA. His jump shot will easily translate, as will his rebounding ability. Although, Love and Al Jefferson seem an odd fit, I think there will be some games that their relentlessness on the glass will simply overwhelm opponents. Randy Foy's return to health and the addition of Mike Miller to the Timberwolves should give Love and Jefferson plenty of room to operate on the inside. The attention Jefferson will get via double teams should allow Love to wreak havoc on the weakside boards. The new NBA trend of "going small" will get punished by these two on the glass. It simply won't be a viable option if the Timberwolves can devise a defensive scheme to protect Love from small forwards masking as power forwards. Seeing how Al Horford was able to produce at center last year for the Hawks makes me optimistic that Loves game will translate just fine to the NBA. Look for him to make a run at averaging a double double as a rookie with good assist numbers.



Just Missed the Cut:


Russell Westbrook - Will have to navigate his way though Earl Watson for playing time. If allowed to play, he would have an outside chance.

Danilo Gallinari - Experienced pro. Will he be healthy enough to get acclimated in training camp?

Jerryd Bayless/Rudy Fernandez - Portland's depth and lack of shots will hurt them, not talent.

Marc Gasol - If Darko is traded to New York then he moves into the top 5.

Eric Gordon - Will Baron Davis groom him to be another Montae Ellis? He definitely has the ability to put up numbers.

Reasonable Expectations

See? Now you respect me, because I’m a threat. That’s the way it works.

Syndrome
The Incredibles


In the entire history of Grizzlies basketball, we have never been a threat. We are in the 13th season and nothing, nada, zippo. Only one All Star in the first 12 seasons. Dwindling attendance. Lackluster and indifferent fan base. Currently 3-9 and coming off a blowout loss to the World Champion San Antonio Spurs. Yes, it is a long way from Halloween when we played the Spurs closely. As the season wears on and the losses mount (look at December’s schedule), there is one underlying theme as the Grizzlies face the better teams…we are not a threat.

When discussing the Grizzlies, especially with regards to roster moves, the vision is for building a contender for the Larry O’Brien trophy. It is not about building a “competitive” team or a playoff contender. It is about a team that is at least on the level that the Utah Jazz is currently. Might not be a championship favorite but a team that is considered to have a chance if things break right. So the question that needs to be answered is what type of talent do the Grizzlies need to compete at that level?

When starting this conversation, it is good to refer to an article written about two years ago that covered what it takes to win in the NBA from a historic perspective. When referring to this article, it shows you the #1 reason why the Grizz have failed to build a contender. The Grizzlies have not built the team from the top down. What this means is that the past GMs of the Grizzlies have been more concerned with overall depth than the quality of the players at the top. Another shortcoming is that Grizzlies management has not valued acquiring players that defend the goal over shooters.

BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM

STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar
Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons.

Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players.

Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender.

STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two) Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection.

STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend. No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender.

Now this article is not THE reference for building an NBA champion, but history should not be ignored. The key to winning in the NBA is not size, depth, defense, or scoring. The key to winning is top-level talent. Ask Phoenix if size and defense is the key to contending. Ask Boston if depth is essential to contending. Ask Detroit if you need elite scorers to contend. See I am not asking for or expecting an NBA title. I just want to enter the conversation.

Coach Iavaroni has already stated that he would prefer an 8 or 9 man rotation. So in essence, we should have 6 roster spots that we should not even discuss except in theoretical playoff match up terms such as having an extra big if we had to deal with Greg Oden or an extra long perimeter defender to disrupt Kevin Durant. Did you catch that? Yes, that is how far away this roster is from making the jump into the upper 25% of the league. I think this is the reality that must set in for us. We are at least 3 years away.

These three years assumes that Gay, Lowry, Conley and Darko progress as expected. In this time the Grizzlies should have a top 7 pick in 2008, to be a borderline playoff team in 2009, a playoff team in 2010 and to go into the 2010-11 season as a threat to make the Western Conference finals. So with that timeline it is more important to find players that fit the team our coach wants to build. A team that attacks on both ends of the court, athletic, and able to shoot proficiently from the perimeter is what Coach Iavaroni emphasized. Tarence Kinsey doesn’t count because he should not be in your top 8 or 9.

In my estimation, we have players 3 through 6 in our future contending rotation: (3) Michael Conley, (4) Rudy Gay, (5) Darko Milicic, and (6) Kyle Lowry. So we need use the rest of our assets in getting two big time players: one a glass eating (10+ rebounder) interior defender and the other a perimeter shot maker in the mold of the upper echelon wings in the league. Nothing else matters.

Now the chance of acquiring an age appropriate (25 and under), established “superstar” via trade is virtually impossible. So that leaves the draft, free agency and trading for a potential superstar before they have blossomed. Players that fit the mold we should be looking for: Gilbert Arenas, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Emeka Okafor, Andris Biedrens, DeAndre Jordan, Tyrus Thomas, and Josh Smith.

In other words, the two types of players needed are a perimeter player capable of eventually giving you a consistent 20 to 25 points a night with range and without being a defensive liability and an interior player capable of pulling down 10 to 15 rebounds per night while scoring in double figures with good enough hands that the team can use him to run the pick and roll and playing good defense. These two guys don’t guarantee a championship but they elevate the Grizzlies into contention. Isn’t that all a Grizzlies fan could ask for at this point?

Greg Oden to miss entire season

Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that Oden is lost for the season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee today.

Obviously this is very bad news for both Oden and the Portland TrailBlazers. It appears that Portland will be on the receiving end of yet another high lottery pick next offseason which will be the third straight year for them, having drafted Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Oden the past two offseasons. This will do nothing to quell the comparisons to Sam Bowie that have been floating around, which is unfortunate for Oden and the fanbase, as they are completely off base. If anything, he's more like their most recent #1 overall pick -- Bill Walton.

For Grizzlies' fans, this has to be cause for a sigh of relief on two counts. First, that the Blazers won't have that dominant force in the middle in those 3 games this season. Secondly, and more obviously, that the Grizzlies won't be haunted by recollections of players like Bryant "Big Country" Reeves and Michael Dickerson, who came into the league with lots of potential, but whose careers were cut short by injuries.

Since the draft lottery, the question has been hanging over the city like a dark cloud: What If? What if those ping-pong balls had given the #1 overall pick to the Grizzlies instead of Portland? Well, since hindsight is 20/20, we can now say "Thank Goodness" instead of "What If". Even if Oden returns to his pre-injury condition and develops into that dominant center that was his predicted future, at least Grizzlies' fans won't have to spend the next season playing the Waiting Game, as the fanbase in the Pacific Northwest is now forced to do. I wish Oden and that fanbase the best, but I'm glad that I'm not in their shoes right now.

Update: Ron Tillery agrees with me

Delving into the Draft

I detailed the players that I believe the Grizzlies should target if they wind up with a pick outside the Top 2 on the message board (quick recap -- Hibbert, Brewer, Horford, Conley). But now I want to take a more detailed look at who is out there in the draft, since many people have claimed that this is the deepest draft since 2003, 1999 or 1998, depending on perspective. These same people have also been clamoring for the Grizzlies to find a way to acquire a few more picks in the draft, often through whatever means necessary, no matter how short-sighted they might be. So let's find out who could be the next difference maker or role player. These are not in the order I see them being drafted necessarily either and I'm only going to discuss players I have seen in game action, so no Yi Jianlian, Nicolas Batum or Marco Belinelli here. Go check out one of the dozens of reputable draft sites for info on them.

Greg Oden (Ohio State) -- If you read my earlier post, then you already know what I think about him. The "next Bill Russell" is already a great shot-blocker and a solid rebounder who has shown that he can score in a variety of ways as well. He's #1 on the board with a bullet. The one thing he will definitely have to work on is his conditioning, which was absolutely abysmal during the NCAA tournament. Some time in the weight room, a personal trainer, a nutritionist and a personal chef wouldn't hurt either. You can afford those things in the NBA though.

Kevin Durant (Texas) -- While everyone wants to compare him to Kevin Garnett (something I don't understand now), in reality he is a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki.....with better range. Capable of leading his team in scoring, rebounding and dropped jaws, he will need to hit the weight room in order to survive in the NBA. His defense also needs a lot of honing, both one-on-one and help defensive tactics. There is some concern about how much he will need the ball to be effective, as well.

Corey Brewer (Florida) -- The prototype for an all-around swingman. He can shoot from anywhere on the floor, find open teammates and play suffocating defense. Perhaps the most NBA ready player in the draft, he is receiving favorable comparisons from nearly all the experts, with my favorite being referred to as a "young Eddie Jones". He's a good rebounder who is reputed to have an outstanding work ethic, which should make him very attractive for a lot of teams. His ballhandling is somewhat suspect (reminiscent of Rudy Gay in this respect) and he will need to learn how to create his own shot more effectively.

Brandan Wright (North Carolina) -- The first word from everyone's lips when discussing him is "potential". He could be the next Chris Bosh, LaMarcus Aldridge or Channing Frye. Or he could be a guy who never quite lives up to that "potential". That's why the draft is an inexact science. With his great athleticism, massive wingspan, ever-growing offensive arsenal and seemingly natural ability to do anything on the court, he is a tantalizing prospect who will almost certainly go in the Top 5 of the draft. Like many of the prospects, he is going to have to spend a lot of time in the weight room so that he doesn't get broken in half by midseason.

Julian Wright (Kansas) -- Surprised many by declaring for the draft, but I don't think another year in college (particularly under Bill Self) would help him develop into a better NBA player, so what does he have to lose? Another great athlete, Wright is an adept ballhandler, which has been somewhat detrimental to the development of his jumpshot, which is merely adequate at this point. He's a very unselfish player (perhaps to a fault) who rarely forces things. He has developed a nice post game, which will help him as he continues to increase his range on his jumper.

Al Horford (Florida) -- I've seen the comparison to Carlos Boozer repeated often and I think it fits with one caveat.....Boozer doesn't have the nasty streak that Horford does. His attitude reminds me of Charles Oakley or Anthony Mason -- a true regulator of the paint. An impressive rebounder with good athleticism and one of the few prospects who won't need as much time in the weight room to adjust, Horford is also an above-average defender and shot blocker. He needs to work on his mid-range game and improve his free-throw shooting, but will definitely be a solid PF for whatever team drafts him.

Roy Hibbert (Georgetown) -- A solid scorer and decent rebounder, Hibbert isn't much of an athlete. He reminds me a lot of Eddy Curry, but with a better work ethic (or maybe just Curry if he'd gone to college?). He has the one thing that you cannot teach or develop in the NBA: SIZE. At 7'2", 280 lbs., he is a beast to deal with for anyone in the league. He has great touch around the basket and is a very good free throw shooter, so any team looking for a center would be wise to give him a second (or third....or tenth) look. His conditioning will have to improve for him to excel at the next level.

Mike Conley, Jr. (Ohio State) -- He displayed his amazing level of skill and talent throughout the season and the tournament, impressing nearly all of the experts along the way. He has great athletic ability, as well as the poise that you demand from your point guard during crunch time situations. With a variety of ways to score, Conley is the threat that opposing coaches fear, since he isn't guaranteed to pass first, second and always with the game on the line. He will need to increase the range on his perimeter shooting to become an even more dangerous player.

Joakim Noah (Florida) -- The very definition of a high motor, hustle player, I think of Noah as a 7-foot version of Brian Cardinal. Ok, ok, Shane Battier. Needless to say, I'm not a huge fan of what he brings to the table in terms of all-around basketball ability. I mean, let's face it, would you spend a high lottery pick on a guy who looks like this:

I didn't think so. I appreciate the fact that he has great leadership skills and a high basketball IQ, as well as a good understanding of defensive principles. But he can't shoot and has a very limited post game, which presents problems for him in the NBA. Much like the case was with Mark Madsen (very good college player, very average NBA player), I see him as a valuable role player, a "glue guy" moreso than a guy you can run plays for with any consistency.

Jeff Green (Georgetown) -- Went from "Who???" to "that guy who just takes over games" to "The Magician (aka "The Disappearing Act") over the course of the season and tournaments. Green is a guy who isn't particularly great at any one thing, but is above average at practically everything. The consumate jack-of-all-trades, master of none, if you will. He does possess remarkable vision for a SF. The biggest areas he'll need to work on in the NBA are his perimeter shooting and his defense, which is only passable at this point due to poor fundamentals.

Derrick Byars (Vanderbilt) -- I'll admit that I only saw him play a handful of games this year (Vandy not being high on my basketball radar, after all), but what I saw from him did convince me that he'll be a solid pro. He's a good defender with no glaring weaknesses in his skillset. He has the versatility to play either wing position, plus he even ran the point some this season, which is always helpful. He's not active enough without the ball in his hands, but that is something that he can learn at the next level.

Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech) -- Phenomenal athlete with unreal potential. He does have a few gaping holes in his game, though. His perimeter shooting needs a lot of work, as he only seems confident when he has his feet set under him. He's not that comfortable coming off screens or pulling up off the dribble. His ballhandling is very suspect as well, which is a problem if he intends to stay at SF at the next level. I see the same problems with Young that I witnessed with Shawne WIlliams at Memphis last season -- he does 2 or 3 things really well, but seems intent on proving that he can do 7 or 8 things really well. He doesn't go to his strengths nearly often enough, which has exposed his glaring weaknesses in his first collegiate season. He would be better served returning for another season at Tech, in my estimation.

Al Thornton (Florida State) -- To me, perhaps the biggest question mark in the draft. He's older than most (he'll be 24 in December), but is also far more athletic than most, too. He's been tagged with the dreaded "tweener" label, but I think his great mid-range game and unreal physical ability will be enough to allow him to squeeze into the top part of the draft. He needs to expand the range on his jumper and hone his ballhandling skills, as well as spend some time getting acquainted with the concept of "passing" -- one of the few weaknesses he has, but is it ever an obvious one. I see him becoming a poor man's Shawn Marion, who is also the best tweener forward in the NBA, so that's not a comparison to take lightly.

Acie Law IV (Texas A&M) -- A PG with good size (6'3") and a reputation for being clutch, Law has developed light years from what he was in his freshman season with the Aggies. He has the ability to play at any tempo and remains in control throughout the game. A solid playmaker, Law has also shown that he can be creative in shaking himself free for a shot, too. His defense will need a lot of work at the next level, but his mastery of the offensive side of the ball more than compensates for that. The Sam Cassell comparisons are very accurate, IMO.

Spencer Hawes (Washington) -- He has a great array of post moves in his arsenal and the ability to finish with either hand, which has left more than one defender with a sheepish look on his face. Hawes is also a skilled passer, drawing comparisons to Brad Miller and Vlade Divac. He can also step out and hit mid-range jumpers, even with defensive pressure. Something that has concerned many scouts is his low rebounding numbers, but according to a person who watches a lot of Pac-10 games, this is mostly due to the fact that one of Hawes' teammates is a rebounding machine. Judging by the numbers on their team page, I can only assume that player is sophmore Jon Brockman. Hawes is not a great athlete and is somewhat thin for a 7 footer (although not Shawn Bradley "stick man" thin), but he has managed to hold his own against several heralded big men so far. In any other year, he'd probably be the #1 center prospect in the draft.

Hasheem Thabeet (Conneticut) -- We go from "polished product" in Spencer Hawes to "raw block of wood" in Thabeet. If anyone wastes a first round pick on him, then they deserve what they get. I understand that he's doing it for financial reasons more than anything (his family is still overseas in Tanzania), but that should affect any GM's evaluation of him. He's a great shotblocker......and that's it. He can't score and doesn't rebound well. Much like other "projects" before him (Mutombo and Okafor come to mind), he needs 4 years of school to develop into an actual basketball player. Even one more season in college would help him tremendously.

Aaron Gray (Pittsburgh) -- BUST! Next! Ok, ok, I'll talk about him, even though he doesn't deserve the time or effort. Gray has a variety of post moves at his disposal, but shies away from physicality so much that he neglects to take advantage of them. He has also displayed a level of inconsistency that isn't going to be viewed favorably by many scouts. His games against players that he'd face in the NBA typically produced very poor results for him. He was completely shut down in matchups against Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes this year. I honestly believe that he lacks the heart and the toughness to last in the NBA.

Arron Affalo (UCLA) -- A very good all-around shooter, Affalo has also shown the ability to finish in traffic due to his body control and strength. He's also an underrated rebounder at 6'5" and a decent defender. His lack of great athleticism prevents him from being a great player at the next level, but he should be a solid player in the NBA for the next 10 years based on his solid fundamentals and understanding of the game.

Josh McRoberts (Duke) -- A poor man's Christian Laettner. Any questions?

Morris Almond (Rice) -- His picture should be next to the definition of "scorer" in the collegiate edition of the dictionary. He'll probably make his living in the NBA as a dynamite 6th man/occasional starter, as he is a bigger version of what Ben Gordon was coming out of UConn a few years ago. A lightning quick release from anywhere on the floor and the ability to create his own shot despite average athletic ability has given NBA scouts reason to pause and take notice. He should spend some time on his defensive fundamentals, which to this point have only received token interest, as well as his overall ballhandling skills. Teams in need of instant offense should definitely consider him.

Nick Young (USC) -- Only saw him three times outside of the tournament (twice against Arizona, once against Washington), but he reminded me a lot of both Antawn Jamison and Josh Howard in the way that he scored from unconventional angles and approaches. He is sneaky athletic, almost lulling defenders to sleep with his consistency from mid-range before surprising them with a quick move to the basket for an uncontested layup or dunk. I've seen him play great defense....and I've seen him play below-average defense, so he needs to work on consistency in that area. Another guy who should be a solid pro for the next decade.

I'll be working on a list of Sleepers next, so look for it sometime next week.

An Ode to Oden

You might think it is strange that I start off with a post about a player still in college, but bear with me. Having seen Greg Oden in person -- if he's a day younger than 30, I'd be amazed -- I can now unequivocally say that he is without a single doubt the player that the Memphis Grizzlies should select, if they are fortunate enough to get the #1 pick in the draft. Let me tell you why.

Oden is an otherworldly force of nature in the paint. He only played 18 minutes against Tennessee and still managed to wreak havoc on their post players every single second he was in the game. His two huge weakside blocks happened because of his recognition of what was happening on the floor and then he took the perfect angle to erase the shot from existence. On one, his teammate got a blocking foul called on him -- and a deep bruise courtesy of Oden landing on him, no doubt -- but the other block finalized a stirring comeback that resulted in a Buckeyes victory. That is the game-changing element that the Grizzlies have been lacking since they moved to Memphis.

I read a quote from the Sports Guy today where he referenced that end-of-game block, where it seemed that Oden kept rising up until it seemed that he was 12 feet off the floor. He also mentioned that many people have whispered about the fact that Oden hasn't been going 110% "all out" every game due to worries about his recently injured, still healing wrist. On both of those blocks, you saw the "real Greg Oden", not the guy who has been content to play each game with little to no concern about his touches or minutes, deferring to teammates at all times. In those two instances, you saw a guy who nearly killed two of his own teammates when he landed, making sure that the opponents' shots didn't have a chance at ever seeing nylon.

I know many of you are absolutely enthralled with the freakish dynamic that Kevin Durant brings to the table, and believe me, I think that he is something special, too. He truly is a hybrid of Tracy McGrady, Kevin Garnett, Julius Erving and many other NBA greats. He makes everything look so effortless that you're not even sure that he's trying hard. But when I look at NBA championship teams, I don't see the names of guys like that leading their teams. I see names like Russell, Chamberlain, Mikan, Parrish, Abdul-Jabbar, O'Neal, Duncan, Olaujuwon, Walton, Malone. The swingmen I see in leadership roles are hard-nosed competition junkies who would sooner slap their mothers than concede a single point in a playoff game. Guys like Jordan, Bryant, Pippen, Wade, Bird, Thomas. There are guys who were important to their team who made things look easy -- James Worthy, Clyde Drexler, Robert Horry, to name a few -- but they weren't the "leaders" of their teams that won titles. In fact, the only guy who did manage to make everything look easy while winning everything in sight was Dr. J, who was notorious for his mean streak on the court. His battles with Larry Bird in the early 80's were legendary for their intensity.

So, in saying all that, count me in with those who continue to believe that championship teams are built from the middle outwards. Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen (future Hall of Famers and NBA Top 50 members) are the only ones to reach the pinnacle of the sport without the presence of a great center. And it took both of them to achieve that, which is what other players are starting to figure out -- like Kobe in L.A. for instance. Great big men make the game easier for everyone else on the team. They block shots and intimidate guards in shooting pull-up jumpers. They rebound, allowing for more fastbreak opportunities, which translates to easy points. They make an entire team's defense better just with their presence. Does anyone truly believe that Jason Williams suddenly became a markedly better defender upon his arrival in Miami? Or does having Shaq and Zo behind him make guards a little wary of going into the paint once they get around him?

Will I be unhappy if we have to "settle" for Kevin Durant? Not at all. Because that means that things were out of our control due to the "luck of the draft". But if we get the top pick, I don't see that there is any way we can pass up the prospect that is the answer to 85% of our problems with this team -- especially since fans have clamored for a "big man" since the moment the moving trucks arrived in Memphis. Or did everyone forget that?