Number Five is Alive!

A few thoughts on the draft lottery, if you will.

I know that several fans are unhappy with the results of Tuesday night's NBA Draft Lottery. I'm not among them. In fact, when Chip asked me what my preference was prior to the lottery taking place, I told him that I wanted the #2 or #5 pick. My reasoning for the #2 is simple and should be obvious: With the #2 pick, the Grizzlies get to select whoever remains from Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose. I know that most teams (other than Minnesota, who doesn't need a PF like Beasley) would be happy with either of those players, despite what Pat Riley has intimated about trading the pick if Derrick Rose isn't there (total poppycock, by the way -- more on that later).

If the Grizzlies had been fortunate enough to receive that pick, then the decision would have effectively been made for them, similar to how Seattle recently wound up with Kevin Durant, after Portland selected Greg Oden #1 overall. Of course, having the #1 pick would have had a lot of extra pressure given that Derrick Rose is Memphis' favorite son after leading the Tigers to the national title game less than two months ago. The Grizzlies selected Mike Conley with the #4 pick last year and took Kyle Lowry with the #24 pick the year before that, so they have some quality PG's already on the roster. At the risk of drawing Zack's ire, I'll also mention that both Javaris Crittenton and Juan Carlos Navarro are capable of filling in at PG if needed, in my opinion. So if there is one position that the Grizzlies shouldn't be looking at when assessing their draft needs, Point Guard is that area. I know that some people will clamor that there is no way you can pass up a "potential Hall of Famer" just because you have a good, young player already at that position. I agree with that stance -- I just disagree that Derrick Rose fits that label. (Ducking beer bottles being chucked at me by Tiger fans everywhere.) My evaluation of Rose is that he will be a great player in the league for the next decade, but I do not believe that he will be the Top 5 player overall that so many fans have rated him to be already. I'll gladly go point-by-point on his strengths and weaknesses in my pre-draft rankings that will be coming soon, so save your howls and jeers for that future post.

Now that we have that out of the way, let me explain why I wanted the #5 pick, instead of the #3 or #4. There are two players currently being rated in the Top 10 by many draft sites and experts that scare the ever-lovin' crap out of me: Brook Lopez and O.J. Mayo. I said in a previous post that when I look at Brook Lopez, I see a solid starter, but nothing special -- certainly nothing transcendent that is worthy of a top five selection. Lopez's game is based upon achieving great positioning around the basket. He was able to do that in college due to having superior size to many of his opponents, but the NBA is full of guys that are every bit as big and strong as he is. He won't be Michael Olowokandi, Eric Montross, Cherokee Parks or Jerome James, as he does possess some quality basketball skills, but he's not going to be David Robinson either. I see him being a solid big man like Zydrunas Ilgauskas as a best case scenario. If he can concentrate on rebounding and develop the wide range of offensive moves that Big Z has, then he could wind up matching his career averages of 14.5 ppg and 7.9 rpg, which is a very solid career indeed.

I also said that when I look at O.J. Mayo, I see Steve Francis. Stevie Franchise was a great player at one time -- but he was never a "winner". He put up tremendous stats for the first 7 seasons of his career, but the fact remains that Houston got markedly better and Orlando got noticeably worse after the Francis for McGrady trade. I see several of the same attributes in Mayo that I witnessed in Francis, both in terms of skillset and personality. With the right mix of players and coaches surrounding him, Mayo could turn out to be a tremendous, MVP-level player. But unless that "perfect scenario" happens, I don't see it happening and would rather not have this franchise set back by making the wrong choice with another high lottery pick. We already selected Steve Francis once -- remember?

Earlier, I said that Riley's assertion that he would be open to trading the pick if Rose wasn't available, because "they have a pretty good PF" already was ludicrous. Here's why: Shawn Marion is a great all-around player, let there be no doubt about that. Even if he doesn't opt out of the last year of his contract, Shawn Marion just turned 30 years old this month and there have been whispers about his athleticism starting to wane, which is a very bad thing for a player whose game is predicated on being more athletic than an overwhelming majority of his opponents. Furthermore, why wouldn't a team want to take the talented Michael Beasley, who appears to be capable of playing either forward position, meaning that the Heat could trot out Wade/Beasley/Marion in the same lineup if they desired. Of course, I fully expect the Chicago Bulls to take Beasley at #1 overall, so Miami will likely get the player they appear to covet, which will (as usual) render all my ramblings meaningless. The point is, either Pat Riley is full of mularkey or he truly has gone insane and believes that he'll be able to duplicate what the Boston Celtics did this past offseason in turning the worst team in the Eastern Conference into a title contender practically overnight. At this juncture, I'd make that bet a 50-50 proposition, since the hair gel has to be affecting his brain waves by now.

Rest assured, we'll have plenty of player evaluations, mock drafts and the always entertaining "what Team X should do/what Team X will do" posts for the next month. And, of course, I'll be sure to talk endlessly about who I think the Grizzlies should select with each pick or if they might be better off trading down. Make sure to vote in the polls on the right-hand sidebar so that we know who you think the "right" pick is and, as always, let me know what you think in the Comments.

Memphis at Miami - 4.11.08

Memphis is winning at a clip their fans haven't seen since this time last season. The big difference is that at this point last season Memphis had already sewn up the worst record in the league. This year they are in the middle of the pack for a legitimate chance in the lottery. Not exactly the best time for a team to start winning if strategy is their prime concern. Which leads one to only one conclusion. They are trying to win because they believe that is what they are supposed to do. What a novel attitude for a team in their position.

Miami has taken a more strategic view of this season. Shelving Dwayne Wade to rehab his injuries for next season, allowing Shawn Marion to rest the remainder of the season after an apparently painful slip in the shower and allowing their coach to scout college players at the NCAA tournament instead of actually coaching games is not what you would call a competitive attitude toward winning games. Throw in injuries to former Grizzlies Alexander Johnson and Jason Williams plus Udonis Haslem has made Miami's starting lineup a better trivia question than an NBA team. Seriously, can anyone name thier starting 5?

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Chris Quinn
Mike Conley has played three really nice games in the last six. That is what happens with rookies and especially with rookie PGs. One night he is able to use his speed to get to the rim and really put defenses on their heals opening up jumpers for his teammates. The next night he appears to be sluggish and unsure of what to do with the ball. Chris Quinn has struggled coming off the bench but the 2nd yr guard out of Notre Dame has been much more effective as a starter. Quinn is a better shooter but will be pressed defensively with Conley's speed. With no true shot blocker behind him Quinn won't be able to get a lot of support either.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Daequan Cook
Mike Miller was struggling before erupting at Minnesota for a season high 34 points with 8 three pointers. Unfortunately his cold slump returned against Phoenix making it 9 games out of 10 with Miller not reaching 20 pts and 4 out of 6 games that he failed to reach double figures. Something is obviously not right with Mike right now. DeQuan Cook, a teammate of Mike Conley at Ohio St, is not afraid to shoot the ball despite his low shooting percentage (37.1% from the field and 32.1% from the arc). Rookie gunners routinely struggle with their shot in the NBA but against Miller he may have better looks than he is used to getting. It shouldn't help that much however.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Ricky Davis
If their is a bigger nemisis for the Grizzlies than Ricky Davis I don't know who he is. Ricky Davis has made a career of beating the Grizzlies with last second shots including a streak of three straight game winning shots at one point. It may not be a coincidence that this streak ended when Rudy Gay came to town. Since Rudy's arrival Davis has not been nearly as effective. Rudy, who is having a break out season and is in competition for the Most Improved Player award, has been red hot of late and especially effective during the 4th quarter. That is a trait the Grizzlies have been notoriously missing since their arrival in Memphis.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Hakim Warrick vs Earl Barron
Hakim has started to struggle of late after an impressive run after the trade of Pau Gasol. In his last 10 games Warrick is averaging 16.4 ppg but only 4.5 rpg. That isn't good enough. Warrick has a big advantage against Barron being able to draw him away from the basket offensively but will struggle with Barron's size on the glass. The former Tiger center is starting simply because Miami has no one else to play right now. The 3rd yr pro is playing only 19 mpg and scoring only 6.4 ppg and grabbing 4.2 rpg, but is playing far better since being inserted into the starting lineup.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Mark Blount
Darko has been an enigma wrapped in a quandry this season. Averaging only 24 mpg this season despite starting 63 games Milicic has excelled against bigger, slower centers but struggled mightily against Centers capable of operating away from the basket. Blount is capable of scoring away from the basket. When motivated Blount is a very capable center but he is rarely motivated which works to Darko's advantage. Not enough however to win the individual battle.
Advantage: Miami

Benches: Memphis vs MiamiIf I thought figuring out who was starting for Miami you can imagine the difficulty in discovering who is really contributing off of their bench. Marcus Banks, the former Grizzlies draft pick, is on his 4th team in his 5th NBA season. Judging from performance (9.5 ppg on 51.2% shooting and 3.0 apg in only 21.6 mpg) you might believe he has finally found a home. The rumors that Coach Riley is most interested in Derick Rose in the draft may mean that is a bit too optomistic. Kasib Powell, Stephane Lasme and Joel Anthony contribute but JWill's return may be the best news for the Heat. Memphis has probably lost Javaris Crittenton for the rest of the year with his sprained wrist but Kyle Lowry, Juan Carlos Navarro and Jason Collins are still contributing and offering some hope for next year.
Advantage: Memphis

Relevant blogs:
Crazy from the Heat
Ira Winderman

Other previews:
Grizzlies.com
USA Today
Hoopsworld
The Sports Network
Commercial Appeal
Grizzlies Message Boards

Memphis vs Miami - 1.6.08

Memphis is playing some of their best basketball to start the new year after playing some of their worst to end 2007. The only significant change has been the demotion of Damon Stoudamire and the promotion of Mike Conley. Suddenly Memphis' interior defense is improved, the offense is more effective and the results are far more encouraging. Conley has learned how to swim apparently to use Iavaroni's reference from the beginning of the season. Rudy Gay had a tooth knocked out against Boston but came back to lead the team in scoring against Boston and showed the type of fortitude that the Grizzlies have lacked in previous seasons taking big shot after big shot in the game. Juan Carlos Navarro came back to life to score 20 points after being shut out in the win at Indiana. Mike Miller started hot but faded late to finish with 16 points after scoring 11 after 14 minutes of the game.

Miami has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. With Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O'Neal and Jason Williams it seemed inconceivable that the Heat wouldn't be competitive for the playoffs in the East but Miami is not only not competing, they have the worst record in their conference. Injuries have played a major role as all three of their big name vets plus Alonzo Mourning have suffered through injuries which has torn team chemistry apart. Don't be surprised if health issues sideline Pat Riley pretty soon as his history is to lead championship teams but abandon bad teams. Miami is bad this season. The only bright spot has been the play of rookie Daequan Cook from Ohio St.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Chris Quinn
Miami has suffered at the point all season but seems to have found a keeper in the young Quinn. Quinn has started 8 games for the Heat and performed very well in that role. His 52% shooting has helped him average 7.4 points as well as dealing out 4.3 assists. Mike Conley has done even better starting. Conley is averaging 8.5 ppg, 6 assists and 2 steals while showing incredible poise running the team. With Conley finally in the regular rotation and starting no less it seems impossible that he won't make his home debut in this game.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guards: vs Daequan Cook
Mike Miller has been most effective shooting the ball this season but struggles to get shots in the 2nd half and especially the 4th quarter of games. His rebounding (7.0 rpg) has been a needed aid to the Grizzlies offense but one has to wonder how long Miller can continue to be effective playing over 37 minutes a night. Cook, Conley's teammate at Ohio St, replaced Dwayne Wade in the starting lineup against Dallas as Wade sat out the game against Dallas. Cook is a mad bomber who can shoot his team to victory or defeat since he seems to have no concept of his shot being on or not. Cook will shoot either way.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forward: Rudy Gay vs Ricky Davis
Is there is any player who has broken the Grizzlies heart more than Ricky Davis? Davis could build an hour long highlight film simply on game winning shots against Memphis. Whether at Boston or Minnesota or Cleveland Davis has beaten the buzzer against the Grizzlies and now he gets another shot in a Miami uniform. Davis is struggling this season with Miami after being traded right before the start of the season but seems to be finding his game averaging nearly 20 ppg over the last 5 games. Rudy Gay has been the best player for the Grizzlies this year and has made people forget that he was traded for crowd favorite Shane Battier last year. Gay has shown the athletic ability to shoot over almost any player in the league yet still had the touch to be dangerous from 3 pt land. If Rudy has a weakness it is avoiding foul trouble against slashing players like Davis. Early foul trouble has given Rudy troubles in games this season.
Advantage: Miami

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Udonis Haslem
If there has been one player who consistently puts out the effort to win games for Miami this season it has been Udonis Haslem. The 5th yr pro out of Florida has averaged 12.9 ppg and 9.4 rpg and brought the interior power game that Miami needs with Shaq not playing. Gasol has been anything but consistent this season. He followed a 31 pt game against Philly with his first non-double figure scoring night the next game against New Orleans. He followed a 30 pt scoring night against Indiana with a 12 pt effort on 3-13 shooting from the field but did grab 8 rebounds, dish out 5 assists and block 3 shots but gave up a big offensive rebound and basket in the Boston loss. Gasol has never liked playing against physical players and Haslem is one of the more physical PF's in the league but Gasol has too much talent to not win this match up.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Mark Blount
Blount was the 2nd part of the pre-season trade with Minnesota but was not brought in to be the starter. In fact he really wasn't brought in to back Shaq. Blount made the salaries work and Minnesota wanted to be rid of him. Lucky for Miami that he was included as Shaq has looked terrible this season and Mourning's career is over after tearing his Patella Tendon. Blount has never been a hard working center and this season is no different but at least he is a big body for Miami to put on the court and when motivated can produce. He just isn't motivated very often. Milicic continues to improve with the support of Marc Iavaroni. Despite a painful thumb that makes rebounding and shooting difficult Darko's defense and physical presence allows Gasol to concentrate more on offense and that alone is a huge benefit. Darko may not be a great rebounder but he does a great job of keeping his man off the glass which enables Miller, Gay and Gasol to get to rebounds they didn't last year.
Advantage: Memphis

Benches: Memphis vs Miami
With Jason Williams, Shaquille O'Neal and Dwayne Wade injured the Miami bench is decimated. Against Dallas Miami played Luke Jackson, former Grizzly Alexander Johnson and Former Tiger Earl Barron but no one else. That can't be good for any team over a long season. Jackson has been a nicer NBDL pickup for Miami than Jeremy Richardson has been for the Grizzlies but that isn't saying a lot. Memphis' bench has been struggling along with the play of Kyle Lowry. The former spark plug seems to have hit the rookie wall and his minutes and production are way down from earlier in the season. Navarro has been hot and cold as most rookies are even if they are 27. Stromile Swift has been playing a lot like Navarro but he isn't a rookie and Casey Jacobsen has worked hard on defense but struggled with his shot. Still Memphis has depth and talent off their bench and any of the player can perform on any night.
Advantage: Memphis

Relevant blogs/websites:
Crazy from the Heat
Ira Winderman (Sun Sentinel)