Welcome to the first Live Blog that actually counts!
It's Opening Night in Memphis, TN and I'm laid up with flu-like symptoms. Yes, the same flu-like symptoms that plagued Darko Milicic in the preseason and kept Brian Cardinal out the past few days. That's how close we are to the players -- we share the same illnesses.
Pete Pranica and Sean Tuohy spoke about Darius Washington making the Spurs squad and then turned it over to Rob Fischer who interviewed D-Wash prior to the game. Nice fluff piece for the Memphis crowd, although I find it very disconcerting to have to watch Fish after listening to him on the radio for the past few years. He's one of those guys who doesn't look like you would expect him to. He's certainly no Tony Luftman either -- I haven't heard him squeak in excitement yet. ;^)
Also, D-Wash is rocking a serious beard. As a fellow bearded one, I can say that it is quite impressive.
Fish interviews Coach Marc Iavaroni and then Rudy Gay, neither of which seems tense tonight, which is a good thing. Rudy seems very ready to get out there and perform at a high level.
Starting lineups
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, Fabricio Oberto
Memphis Grizzlies: Damon Stoudamire, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Pau Gasol
We've got the Trampoline Guy, Grizz Line and other assorted performers all over the court prior to the Grizzlies' introductions. Quite a spectacle, as they have the blacklights going and all the acts are glowing in the dark. Nice work!
Michael Buffer is in the house! Way to go all out guys! And he's doing the player introductions.
Anyone want to place a wager on whether or not Rudy Gay takes Bruce Bowen to flight school tonight?
Q1 - 11:00 -- Pau wins the tip-off and we are underway. Miller misses an 18 footer off a curl. Duncan cooly puts home a long jumper.
Q1 - 10:30 -- Darko hits a lefty hook from the left block. Duncan gets a sneaky basket to go in, but then Pau comes back and hits from the right baseline.
Q1 - 9:00 -- Tony Parker is crazy sneaky as he snakes in for a 1-on-2 layup. Rudy comes right back and hits a short turnaround over Bowen. Darko runs the floor to get an easy basket and then Parker comes right back again for another highlight style layup. Grizzlies 8, Spurs 8
Q1 - 7:33 -- Duncan somehow gets a leaner to go over Pau's outstretched fingertips, but then Pau gets fouled the next trip down the court and hits both free throws. Tied at 10.
Q1 - 6:40 -- Mike witht he steal and feeds it to Darko running the floor, who slams it home with the left hand!
Q1 - 5:56 -- Parker hits a long jumper from the left wing to tie it back up at 12 all. Pau gets called on a questionable offensive foul for a clear-out. Parker misses everything on another long jumper, prompting "Airball!" chants around the FedEx Forum. He looks for a foul call and gets none as we take our first timeout. Grizzlies 12, Spurs 12
Darko looks good. Perhaps the Dark One has decided to come out to play on Halloween.
Q1 - 5:12 -- Manu Ginobili into the game and he immediately heads to the rim in his slithering style. Misses the layup, but still got to the rim effortlessly. Damon rushes down the court and takes an ill-advised three pointer, which rattles out.
Q1 - 4:58 -- Darko inadvertently pokes Duncan in the eye, sending him to the bench. They call a foul on Rudy against Bowen on the next play, despite the fact that he was standing still with arms straight up in the air. Nothing like a makeup call so quickly after the non-call! Stro into the game now. Bowen misses both, because he can't hit free throws.
Q1 - 3:39 -- Bowen hits a runner from the left side, proving he can do more than hit corner threes. Miller comes back with a three from the left wing. Parker with another easy layup to give the Spurs the lead back. Spurs 16, Grizzlies 15
Q1 - 2:39 -- Wholesale changes as Navarro, Lowry and Jacobsen are now in the game. Duncan misses a bad pass, Navarro picks it up, feeds Casey for the fastbreak layup. Grizzlies take the lead 18-16 and the Spurs want a timeout.
Q1 - 1:50 -- Both teams hate free throws, as Ginobili misses a couple, then Stro hits one of two. Duncan hits another leaner that Navarro immediately answers with a three-pointer from the right wing. Grizz 22, Spurs 20
Q1 - 0:42 -- Pau fumbles the ball, recovers and hits a fallaway from the lane. Duncan gets fouled, hits one of two, but Manu gets the offensive rebound off the miss. Ginobili drives to the basket and Darko fouls him, giving him two fouls -- enter Hakim Warrick.
End Q1 -- Manu hits them both. Kyle Lowry is a force of nature. He drives the left side of the lane, dishes back out to Gasol, who slams it home! D-Wash tries to take the Spurs last shot, but is rejected by Pau! Grizz 26, Spurs 23
Q2 - 11:22 -- Finley hits a jumper from the right side over Hakim. Kyle continues his high energy play, blowing by D-Wash to get the foul call and head to the line for two free throws....and hits them both. Grizzlies 28, Spurs 25
Q2 - 10:20 -- Ginobili answers with a three-pointer from the top of the arc. La Bomba doesn't fall, leading to a miss by Ginobili, a scramble for the ball that winds up in Manu's hands again for another three-pointer.
Q2 - 9:32 -- Hakim grabs his own miss and puts it back in with one hand. Then Hak gets a ridiculous foul called on him when Finley acts like he's been thrown from a moving vehicle. Hakim couldn't throw one of the ball boys that far. Ginobili hits the three-pointer on the other end. Spurs 34, Grizzlies 30
Q2 - 8:10 -- Great set play as Gasol passes to Lowry at the top of the arc, who swings it to Navarro on the left wing.....alley-oop to Pau! Parker answers with a mid-range jumper. Hakim with a turnaround over three Spurs defenders that misses. Matt Bonner then hits a three from the left wing. Spurs 39, Grizzlies 32
Q2 - 7:22 -- Pau gets hacked on a trip through the lane and hits both free throws. We have our first Pau checking for blood sighting of the year! Finley misses a contested jumper, Rudy grabs the rebound and feeds Kyle who sprints down the floor for the easy transition layup. Next trip down, Brent Barry steps out of bounds and we get another TV timeout. Spurs 39, Grizz 38
Q2 - 5:50 -- Rudy abuses Bonner for a spinning hook shot to give Memphis the lead. These refs are horrific!!! Navarro is standing perfectly still next to Duncan, who elevates for the shot and gets a foul call. The Forum crowd is really giving it to them now! Pete and Sean agree that there was no foul to be called. Grizz 40, Spurs 39
Q2 - 5:36 -- Duncan misses them both -- the one chink in his armor still. Rudy vs. Bonner is a frightening mismatch as he blows by him and gets hacked to prevent the easy basket. Rudy hits them both, showing Duncan how it is done. Thank you Mark Price!
Q2 - 4:15 -- Rudy picks up another foul, giving him 3 on the night, which brings the return of Stro to the floor. Duncan uses the glass to score over a good defensive effort by Pau. Damon answers with a mid-range jumper from the left side of the floor. Ginobili misses a three-pointer and Miller gathers the rebound. Grizzlies 44, Spurs 41
Q2 - 3:20 -- Ginobili is fouled by Navarro, and JCN goes to the bench in favor of Lowry. Manu hits both free throws. Stro with the offensive board off Kyle's miss and then works into the lane for a basket over Duncan. Spurs take another timeout. Grizzlies 46, Spurs 43
Q2 - 2:15 -- Grizz are on a 14-4 run right now and are +7 in the rebounding department. Parker misses a three-pointer with the shot clock winding down. Miller coasts down the lane for a layup. Parker hits a three from the right corner to answer. Grizzlies 48, Spurs 46
End Q2 -- The Spurs hit two threes in a row and then Miller answers with one of his own. Lowry takes the hard foul driving from the left side and challenging the Spurs' big men. Kyle hits them both to tie the game again at 52 all. Spurs hold for the last shot -- Finley takes a bad shot, one step inside the three-point line, leading to a strange play where Ginobili flips the ball over the top of the backboard, turning the ball over to Memphis, who miss the final shot. Grizzlies 52, Spurs 52
I'm taking a break to eat some dinner, but if you have any questions, leave them in the comments.
Q3 - 10:36 -- Finley opens up with a fadeaway over Miller. Pau misses a fallaway over two defenders. Francisco Elson (the answer to "Who is that masked man?") hits a mid-range jumper. Rudy misses a long three. Memphis allows Bowen to set his feet and he knocks down a 17 footer, prompting a 20-second timeout from Iavaroni. Spurs 58, Grizzlies 52
Q3 - 9:21 -- Out of the timeout Damon hits a three-pointer. Then after a defensive stop, Rudy gets down the floor and hits a mid-range jumper to whittle the deficit down to one. Offensive foul on Duncan relieves the Spurs of another possession.
Q3 - 7:55 -- Rudy loses the ball and Duncan rattles one home on the ensuing possession. Pau answers back with a short leaner of his own. Duncan gets fouled by Gasol and manages to hit both free throws. Damon answers that with a three-pointer to tie it up at 62 all.
Q3 - 6:09 -- A rendition of "Can you top this?" breaks out as Parker and Damon both hit long two-pointers. Bowen breaks that up with a three pointer from the right corner. Darko comes back with a hook shot from the lane. Spurs 67, Grizzlies 66
Q3 - 4:13 -- Parker misses a long jumper. Mike misses a three, Pau grabs the offensive board, passes to Damon who misses another three. Duncan misses a shot on the right block as Darko came over for the intimidation factor. Rudy misses from the left elbow. Nobody can hit right now. Elson finally breaks the monotony with a slam off a nice feed by Ginobili. Gasol answers with the bucket and the foul. Spurs 69, Grizzlies 68
Q3 - 3:14-- Pau hits the free throw to tie it up and give him 17 points for the game. Oberto squeaks by Darko for the lay-in. Damon hits the three-pointer from the left wing. Then Damon steals the ball right out of Parker's hands, feeds Rudy who lays it in and gets fouled. Grizz 74, Spurs 71
Q3 - 2:52 -- Bowen tries to pass it in to Duncan, but the Grizzlies grab it, run down the floor and Miller hits the three from the right-hand side. Grizz 77, Spurs 71
Q3 - 1:33 -- D-Wash misses the three from the right side. Rudy turns it over after getting stuck in No Man's Land and D-Wash takes it coast-to-coast for the layup. Right now, it appears that they are trying to get Darko actively involved in the offense again. Rudy misses an open three and the Grizzlies slap the ball out of bounds. Kyle back in the game now.
Q3 - 0:22 Offensive foul on D-Wash after he pushes Kyle to the floor. Rudy tries another shot from the left side and makes this one. Bonner answers with a three. Grizz 79, Spurs 76
End Q3 -- Gasol says that "if the goofy-looking redhead can do it, so can I" and cans a three from the top of the key. Bonner misses his shot at retaliation as the buzzer sounds. Grizzlies 82, Spurs 79
Q4 - 12:00 -- Enter the final quarter with Gasol, Gay, Miller, Lowry and Swift on the floor.
Q4 - 9:55 -- D-Wash hits a floater to cut the lead to one. Lowry gets to the rim, but cannot finish. D-Wash misses from the left elbow, but Rudy and Stro knock the rebound out of bounds, allowing Brent Barry to hit a three-pointer on the extra possession. Spurs 84, Grizzlies 82
Q4 - 9:18 -- Rudy with a great save to get the ball back to Pau after a tipped rebound nearly went out of bounds. Kyle sprints down the floor and coasts in for another layup. He's quicker than a hiccup.
Q4 -8:03 -- The Spurs start to take over, making three baskets without an answer from Memphis, prompting a timeout from Iavaroni. Spurs 90, Grizzlies 84
Q4 -6:33 -- Navarro comes in and immediately hits a three-pointer. Parker misses a long shot and Lowry gathers the rebound. Navarro travels on the next possession running a pick and roll with Darko. Barry misses a three badly, Navarro brings the ball down and gets hammered on the shot -- no call. These refs will be getting a call from Ronnie Nunn tonight -- I guarantee it. Spurs 90, Grizz 87
Q4 - 5:05 -- Finley hits a three and Navarro answers. Darko with the block on Duncan! Lowry pushes the ball, feeds Warrick who gets clobbered from behind. Spurs 93, Grizz 90
Q4 -4:44 -- Come out of the TV timeout to see Kyle Lowry with ice on his hip after he took a leaping dive to save a ball a few plays earlier. Warrick at the free-throw line for two shots -- hits one of them to cut the lead to two points. Finley misses a three, but Duncan grabs the offensive board. Then Duncan gets the offensive foul! Spurs 93, Grizz 91
Q4 - 3:07 -- Back-and-forth we go, with both teams missing close shots. Miller misses a long jumper, then Duncan responds in kind.....but the Grizzlies fight over the rebound and lose it out of bounds. Duncan misses badly on the shot and Bonner knocks it out of bounds, but the officials give it to the Spurs. Where's Nunn's e-mail address again?
Q4 -2:40 -- Ginobili misses a wide-open shot and Darko boxes out Duncan for the rebound. Rudy gets the ball on the left wing, drives in and hits the jumper from 8 feet to tie it up at 93 all.
Q4 - 1:52 -- Finley misses another mid-range jumper with Rudy applying defensive pressure. Rudy gets the ball to Gasol who sets up Duncan and drives right around Timmy for the reverse layup. Duncan works into the lane to score over Darko and tie it back up. 95 all
Q4 - 0:27.7 -- Bonner misses a three, ball out of bounds to the Grizzlies. Gasol drives the lane and gets blocked by Duncan -- ball OB. Gasol gets the ball on the in-bounds and misses the shot across the lane with three defenders hanging on him. Ginobili hits the runner on the left side to give the Spurs the lead. Spurs 97, Griz 95
Q4 - 0:19.7 -- Crunch-time lineup: Gasol, Rudy, Mike, Darko, Damon. Ball goes in to Rudy who gets an offensive foul called on him when he lowers his shoulder and Ginobili flies into the next area code. Flopper. Spurs get the ball inbounds to Manu and force him to give it up to Duncan who is fouled. Ginobili gets fouled and goes to the line and only hits one of two. Spurs 98, Grizz 95
Q4 - 0:13.5 -- Iavaroni is setting up the play to either get a quick two or a set play to make the game-tying three. Casey in the game now for Darko. Miller goes down the lane for the deuce, but gets tripped by Ginobili and goes to the line. Mike misses the first one, makes the second. Spurs 98, Grizz 96
Q4 - 0:8.1 -- They foul Ginobili who hits them both this time. Damon down the floor for the quick layup. The Spurs are forced to take a timeout when they cannot inbound the ball.
Q4 - 0:3.1 -- Ginobili to the line again. He hits them both again. Damon comes down the floor and hits a huge three-pointer! They foul Manu yet again. Spurs 102, Grizz 101
End Q4 -- Ginobili hits them both. Long outlet to Rudy Gay who heaves it up from 40 feet and misses off the backboard. Final score: Spurs 104, Grizzlies 101
What a game. That's all I can really say at this point.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Live Blog: Grizzlies vs. Spurs 10/31/07
Links: Game Previews, Predictions, CA Coverage
Chris Herrington has his usual high-quality game preview up on Beyond the Arc.
If you feel like you still need an additional game preview -- although I think that Chip, Zack and guest star San Antonio Spurs blog Pounding the Rock have already covered everything -- then check out the preview from Philadelphia TV station 6abc.com.
Mississippi based Speck's Sports Blog also has a preview of tonight's home opener.
The Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, has his season predictions up on ESPN.com now and is surprisingly pro-Memphis, given his less-than-flattering comments in the past about the Grizzlies. He likes us to win 35+ games, make the playoffs and has nice things to say about Pau Gasol and Kyle Lowry. Is this Bizarro World or something? Or has all the Halloween candy affected him already?
Finally, there are a ton of new articles on the Commercial Appeal today....guess they were saving them up or something, since we had 8 today after one per day all through preseason. Click here for the direct link to the Grizzlies section.
If you live in the area, make sure you get out there and support the home team tonight as they take on the defending NBA champions.
Memphis vs San Antonio Pregame Commentary
Don't forget the Opening Night BLOG Party (or posters party for those so inclined) at Jack Daniels Old #7 starting at 6:00 pm. Eric Haseltine may make an appearance so be there early.
Read Chip's pregame commentary and excellent breakdown of the matchups. Below is my commentary for the 10-31 Grizzlies-Spurs game. Hopefully we will also be featuring pregame commentary by an 'enemy' blogger for each Grizzlies game.
Storylines of the Night:
--Will Pau play? Evidently Pau's availability for the game is still up in the air. The Grizzlies absolutely need Pau to play for the hometown fans hopeful for a win (more on that below). To gain any advantage we can against the dominate Spurs, I hope word is leaked that Pau won't play, then have him in the lineup come gameday to go mano-y-mano against the Big Fundamental.
Update....Yes, Pau will play. It was reported today there is no way he would miss the regular-season opener. Great news for the Grizzlies, obviously.
--Can the Grizzlies win a home opener? The Grizzlies historically have a difficult time winning the first home game of the year. Lost to Dallas in 02-03, Boston in 03-04 (curse you, Mike James), Wizards in 04-05 in the opening night of the FedEx Forum, Miami in 05-06, and New York in 06-07. I know personally attending the home opener is more important than most other early season games. A win would be nice. Playing the Spurs isn't.
--Will the early back-to-back affect the Spurs? In what I'll interpret as a partial attempt to make up for the fact that we have to see the Spurs come to town for the home opener, the NBA scheduled the Spurs with back-to-back games to start the season out. Having the Spurs play Portland the night before sounded a lot better before Oden (and other) Trailblazers got injured. Still, the fatigue of an early season back-to-back for an aging veteran team might be to the Grizzlies advantage, especially with our young and deep bench.
Update...Bonus Storyline: Darius Washington returns. I didn't think it would happen, but our beloved D-wash has made the Spurs team. And with the trading of Beno Udrih, his foot hold on the 3rd string PG spot is more solid than I ever would have guessed.
Key's to Victory:
--Keep Tony Parker out of the lane. Last postseason I saw Tony Parkers driving penetration be more of a factor to the Spurs success than the steady hand of Tim Duncan (that might be because Tim Duncan is so steady, his effectiveness gets overshadowed). The Grizzlies seem to unravel defensively when the defense is required to help out on players driving into the lane and the backside rotation can't properly react. Damon and Kyle need to keep Parker out of the lane as much as possible. And do it without fouling too much. The task is not an easy one.
--Rebounding. Rebounding totals are not as important as 'rebounding margin'. However one slices it, the Boys in Blue are in constant need of rebounding better. Oberto will likely be a pest on the offensive boards (who, when I am sitting in the upper deck of the FedEx Forum, looks identical to Rocket's rookie Luis Scola). The Grizzlies are too suspect on defense to sustain allowing many 2nd chance points off of San Antonio offensive rebounds.
--Shooting percentage. One way or another, the Grizzlies are going to have to shoot well to win. Shooting well from all aspects (FT, FG, and 3) will not necessarily be required, but some type of hot hand is. It could be that Lowry and company get enough charity attempts to make FT percentage meaningful. Or Miller, Rudy, Navarro, and Jacobsen light it up from beyond the arc. Or Pau, Swift and Darko convert at a high rate around the basket. In some offensive aspect, the Grizzlies need to have a hot hand. Seeing the basket shrink for Grizzlies shooters will likely lead to a typical opening night result.
Memphis vs San Antonio 10-31-07
OPENING NIGHT!!!
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis enters their 7th season in Memphis with a team filled with more potential than at any time since the Grizzlies were in Vancouver and Stu Jackson was the GM. That isn't to say the team is going to be the best team in Memphis history but just that the opportunity for greatness seems more palpable than at any previous time. Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay and Tarence Kinsey are the young guns now and look like all can contribute, Darko Milicic, Casey Jacobsen and Andre Brown were FA signings that bring a lot of upside and some experience and the vets of Miller, Swift, Stoudamire, Warrick and of course Pau Gasol all look to improve on previous years. Memphis is a young, fast and talented team that needs to put it all together in the toughest division in the toughest conference. Rookie Head Coach Marc Iavaroni has an interesting job ahead of him.
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio opens at home against the Greg Oden-less Blazers on Tuesday night. Talk about a letdown for the networks. The Spurs also get their World Championship rings before the game. They then travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies. One could understand the Spurs overlooking this game. The Spurs are veterans however who have been simultaneously proclaimed the team of the decade and criticized for their failure to be able to repeat as champions. Obviously a repeat has to be high on their list of things to accomplish this season. However the team continues to age at an alarming rate. Tim Duncan is 31. Manu Ginobili is 30, Michael Finley is 34, Bruce Bowen is 36, Francisco Elson is 31, Fabricio Oberto is 32 and Robert Horry is only 37 but seems to be closer to 50. The only young contributor on the team is Tony Parker, 25, and coming off an incredible summer where he won the NBA Championship, was named NBA Finals MVP and then married Eva Longoria. Talk about a nice couple of months.
Damon Stoudamire vs Tony Parker
Coming off the most incredible summer anyone could ask for Tony Parker faces an aging point guard who is recovering from major knee surgery and was expected to be more coach than starting PG this season. Parker doesn't have a lot of support behind him and will be pressured all game from the trio of PG's Memphis can throw at him. The key to stopping Parker is to not let him get into the lane, something easier written than done. Damon will be pressured to do this since his reputation is not that great on defense. Damon just needs to play his game and keep them team controlled. Slowing down Parker man to man will fall on Kyle Lowry's shoulders. Unfortunately, Parker is just too experienced and fast for the Grizz to contain.
Advantage: San Antonio
Mike Miller vs Michael Finley
It still amazes me that these two players are expected to start for their teams. Finley was considered over the hill when San Antonio signed him three years ago. His massive minutes in Dallas had supposedly robbed him of his game and he was rumored to be burned out. While it is true he isn't the player he was in Dallas, Finley has proven to be an intelligent player who knows when to step up his game and when to allow others to lead the way. Miller was supposed to be the consummate 6th man. A scoring threat from anywhere on the court, Miller's lack of speed and toughness was rumored to be too much to overcome as a starter. Last year he proved his critics wrong becoming a dominant #2 scoring threat and surprisingly tough. A suspicious knee injury sidelined him the last month of the season keeping him from playing in 80 games last year for the 1st time since his rookie year. He still set season highs in scoring, rebounding and assists and at 27 is in the prime of his career.
Advantage: Memphis
Rudy Gay vs Bruce Bowen
I don't know how often these two will be paired up against each other. Bowen is a defensive master (or dirty player depending on who you talk to) who will most likely draw Miller for a defensive assignment but an offensive liability who will most likely be guarded by Miller as well. But the positions are what they are. Rudy showed glimpses of the ability Jerry West believed in when he traded fan favorite Shane Battier for Rudy's rights in 2006. Just turned 21, Rudy has height, talent and determination. Most importantly he wants to be among the best and worked hard this summer to take another step toward that goal. With a 39" vertical leap and long arms Rudy is both a shot blocking threat and a decent steals man but still needs to learn position to be truly effective. However people aren't looking for Rudy to be the next great defensive SF. He is expected to be a 5 category threat starting with scoring. Rudy has range to the 3 pt line and can jump over almost anyone in the league. Bowen is old and will have to use all of the tricks left in his bag against Rudy.
Advantage: San Antonio
Pau Gasol vs Tim Duncan
Pau Gasol is one of the few players in the NBA that is capable of averaging a double double in scoring and rebounding over an 82 game season. He is among the top 10 in the league at blocking shots. He shoots a high percentage from the floor and is a good enough passer to possibly post a triple double on any given night. And he is hopelessly outclassed in this matchup. Tim Duncan could quite possibly be the greatest power forward to ever play in the NBA. His career averages are 21.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 3.1 bpg and 52.1% FG shooting. That is a 10 yr average. He had routinely been named to both the All-NBA first team and the All-NBA Defensive first team. Does he have a weakness? Well it is written that he is afraid of heights and sharks. Seriously, his free throw shooting is abysmal which does allow teams to play a sort of 'Bonk a Dunc' defense in reference to the old Hack a Shaq ploy but late in games you don't want him on the line either.
Advantage: San Antonio
Stromile Swift vs Fabricio Oberto
If there was a bigger surprise on the team this season than Stromile Swift then I don't know what it is. No one gave Stro a chance to be in the mix for a starting job but he beat out returnee Hakim Warrick and free agent Darko Milicic quite easily to win the job. Swift has a history of failing to capitalize on opportunities and will have to prove he can play a full season to win over a lot of people. Oberto emerged in the playoffs last season but a broken bone in Elson's his face forces Oberto into the starting role and at 31 it is more likely the playoffs were a fluke than a trend.
Advantage: Memphis
Benches
Memphis' bench is as deep as it has been with since Hubie Brown paced the sidelines. With Kyle Lowry, Juan Carlos Navarro, Casey Jacobsen, Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic the Grizzlies have someone at every position to offer support and often the bench is faster than the starters. What they lack is experience. San Antonio's bench is long on experience and age. With Brent Barry, Matt Bonner, Francisco Elson, Manu Ginobili, and Robert Horry the Spurs bench averages over 30 years old and will be hard pressed to stay with the Grizzlies if the game picks up pace. It is the Spurs job not to let the game get fast and they are good at that. Back to back games hurt the legs of these old guys and Memphis will be fresh and anxious.
Advantage: Memphis
Coaches: Marc Iavaroni v Gregg Popovich
Iavaroni waited until the time was right and is ready to go but seriously is there a better coach in the NBA than Gregg Popovich? It isn't just that he has 4 titles without repeating once but he has kept his team competitive in almost every season he has been in control. He did lose valued assistant PJ Carlisimo but how important are assistant coaches anyway? Iavaroni will be tested by the best to start his head coaching career. Iavaroni has carried the clipboard with some of the best coaches in the game in Mike Fratello, Pat Riley and Mike D'Antoni but everything changes when you have to make the tough calls. Welcome to the hot spot Marc.
Advantage: San Antonio
Make sure you post your final score predictions in a comment!
Comments from Pounding the Rock (San Antonio Spurs blog): Record: 1-0
Up Next: @ Memphis Grizzlies
And just like that, as Matthew pointed out, we've got our first segababa of the year. A loss here wouldn't surprise me in the slightest as conditioning will probably be an issue for Tony, who's still trying to work himself into shape, and who knows how Finley and Barry will respond? If we play defense like we did tonight, we're gonna be 1-1. Fortunately, nobody on Memphis' roster is all that defensively imposing and I think we'll be able to take advantage of some of their youngsters. I predict a double-double from the Red Rocket, 25+ points from Opus, and a narrow Spurs win, let's say 99-95.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
News and Notes: Captains, Inactive List
A couple of newsworthy items to inform everyone about.
First, the Grizzlies have named their captains for this upcoming season. From Graham Kendrick's blog today:
Marc Iavaroni announced that the team has named three captains for the upcoming season: Pau Gasol, Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire.
That is great to hear, as I love the fact that they are putting Gasol in a visible leadership role, rather than simply calling him a leader and expecting it to mean something.
The other item is that Brian Cardinal and Tarence Kinsey will both begin the season on the Inactive List. (NBA.com)
A lot of fans are puzzled by this, given how well TK played last year, but I think it is probably a combination of some lingering issues from his shoulder injury (suffered during Summer League), as well as how well Casey Jacobsen played in preseason. The most common complaint of fans has been that Andre Brown should have been on the list instead, but given that we open the season against the San Antonio Spurs, I want as many frontcourt players available as possible. With Cardinal going on the list, it made sense to make the other player a swingman.
Bye Bye Mike
We hardly knew you.
Mike Conley Jr is no longer on the Grizzlies team.
Don't worry we didn't trade our #4 draft pick. He just prefers to be known as Michael Conley. No 'Junior' jokes (I can't imagine that would be good for a rookie on this team anyway). No 'be like Mike' comments. No 'Hey Mikey he likes it' quips. It is serious, adult and proper Michael if you please.
This may help him avoid some small amount of rookie hazing but not a lot. Maybe he just figured that Mike Conley Jr was too big a mouthful and would take too long to say for a player as fast as he is. Maybe he chose Michael instead of Mike because he didn't want his name confused with Mike Miller and I really can't imagine Michael Miller on the Grizzlies anyway.
I don't know why he wants to be called Michael other than it represents his new professional status. Two years ago he was in high school. Last year he was a freshman in college. Now he is a man plying his trade and putting his skills up against the best players in the world. Working in a man's world he wants a man's name. He's no longer a kid.
Remember that if you see him carrying donuts to morning shoot arounds and lugging luggage out of veterans cars.
Season Predictions
Western Conference Predicted Finish (regular season wins)-
Chip: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Houston, Utah, Denver, New Orleans, Portland, Golden St, Memphis, LA Lakers, Sacramento, LA Clippers, Minnesota, Seattle
Zack: San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Denver, Utah, Golden State, Memphis, New Orleans, L.A. Lakers, Portland, L.A. Clippers, Seattle, Minnesota, Sacramento
Spartacus: Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Utah, Houston, Denver, New Orleans, Golden State, L.A. Lakers, Memphis, Portland, Sacramento, Minnesota, Seattle, L.A. Clippers
Eastern Conference Predicted Finish (regular season wins)-
Chip: Chicago, Boston, Cleveland, Toronto, Miami, Washington, Detroit, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Indiana, Orlando, Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Charlotte
Zack: Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Washington, Cleveland, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Toronto, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Orlando, Charlotte, Philadelphia
Spartacus: Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Toronto, Orlando, Cleveland, New Jersey, Washington, Miami, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, New York, Indiana, Charlotte, Atlanta
Western Conference Playoffs-
Chip: Dallas over Portland, Phoenix over New Orleans, San Antonio over Denver, Utah over Houston, Dallas over Utah, San Antonio, Dallas over San Antonio
Zack: San Antonio over Memphis, Dallas over Golden State, Phoenix over Utah, Houston over Denver, San Antonio over Houston, Phoenix over Dallas, San Antonio over Phoenix
Spartacus: Phoenix over Golden St., Dallas over New Orleans, San Antonio over Denver, Houston over Utah, Phoenix over Houston, San Antonio over Dallas, San Antonio over Phoenix
Eastern Conference Playoffs-
Chip: Chicago over New Jersey, Boston over Detroit, Washington over Cleveland, Miami over Toronto, Chicago over Miami, Bston over Washington, Chicago over Boston
Zack: Boston over New Jersey, New York over Chicago, Detroit over Cleveland, Miami over Washington, Miami over Boston, Detroit over New York, Detroit over Miami
Spartacus: Chicago over Washington, Boston over New Jersey, Detroit over Cleveland, Orlando over Toronto, Chicago over Orlando, Detroit over Boston, Detroit over Chicago
NBA Finals-
Chip: Dallas over Chicago
Zack: San Antonio over Detroit
Spartacus: San Antonio over Detroit (much gnashing of teeth in Dallas, Phoenix, Boston and Chicago)
Rookie of the Year-
Chip: Kevin Durant
Zack: Kevin Durant (JC will be #2)
Spartacus: Al Horford
Most Valuable Player-
Chip: Kevin Garnett
Zack: Tony Parker
Spartacus: Amare Stoudemire
Sixthman of the Year-
Chip: Juan Carlos Navarro (this is a Grizzlies site after all)
Zack: Juan Carlos Navarro (if I didn't believe that Lowry would end up starting soon, he would be my choice)
Spartacus: Juan Carlos Navarro (because I believe he is the best candidate)
Coach of the Year-
Chip: Nate McMillian
Zack: Rick Adelman
Spartacus: Stan Van Gundy
Grizzlies Wins-
Chip: 33
Zack: 40
Spartacus: 37
You can check out Chris Herrington's predictions on Beyond the Arc, as well.
Links: Previews, Scoop Jackson, Dance Team,
Guess what I got......more previews.
We Rite Goode asked us for our predictions and we answered. Read the Southwest Division Preview today.
AllHipHop.com (self-proclaimed "World's Most Dangerous Site") picks the Grizzlies to finish 10th in the West in their Southwest Division Preview.
"twins15" of Complete Sports has Memphis in the playoffs as the 8th seed.
Mediaverse covers a few Memphis related items in a post entitled "On Darius Washington", including ESPN.com's Scoop Jackson mentioning Pau Gasol and Grizzlies dance team member Noelia Warnette-Jones. Some entertaining commentary about Scoop was included in that post.
FOX Sports has a piece entitled "Here's why your team might win" that covers exactly what you think the title suggests. Randy Hill manages to cover each team in the NBA, although I think this could have been really easy to do by saying "Make sure Tim Duncan misses the playoffs".
Basketbawful has some doubts about how good (or at least how exciting) the Grizzlies will be in his NBA Bestern Conference Preview.
Both of the fine gentlemen at The Basketball Jones have Memphis in the playoffs, one as the 7th seed, the other as the 8th seed.
NBA Previews - Pacific Division
Shades of Blue is pleased to be joining with several other team blogs in providing previews for CelticsBlog.com's NBA section. Be sure to take the time to read all these other quality blogs as they predict their team's future for the 2007/08 season.
Golden St. Warriors
Golden State of Mind
Los Angeles Clippers
ClipsNation.com
Los Angeles Lakers
Forum Blue & Gold
With Malice
Phoenix Suns
Bright Side of the Sun
Sacramento Kings
Sactown Royalty
Archives
CelticsBlog NBA Page
Monday, October 29, 2007
Predictions and Expectations
As we draw ever closer to the start of the 2007/08 NBA season, the Net is buzzing with predictions about how each team and player will perform this year. The Memphis Grizzlies Message Boards typically have a thread or two concerning this very subject and this year is no different with a thread dealing just with the newest imports already up and running. The predictions range from cautiously optimistic to wildly hopeful, which is to be expected with any fan base. So, in the spirit of that, I'll attempt to predict the stats for each member of the Grizzlies.
Pau Gasol
Career stats: 35.4 MPG, 18.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 BPG, .510 FG%, .724 FT%
2006/07 stats: 36.1 MPG, 20.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.1 BPG, .539 FG%, .748 FT%
Preseason stats: 23.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.75 BPG, .375 FG%, .765 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 38 MPG, 22.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.9 BPG, .530 FG%, .766 FT%
Pau should see an increase in scoring and assists, while the additional help provided by Darko and friends will cause a slight decrease in his rebounding numbers from his career high last season.
Mike Miller
Career stats: 31.8 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, .454 FG%, .398 3PT%, .771 FT%
2006/07 stats: 39.1 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, .460 FG%, .406 3PT%, .793 FT%
Preseason stats: 24.6 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, .382 FG%, .300 3PT%, .600 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%
Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.
Rudy Gay
Career Stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
2006/07 stats: 27 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .422 FG%, .364 3PT%, .727 FT%
Preseason stats: 30.3 MPG, 15.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.63 SPG, 1.75 BPG, .462 FG%, .385 3PT%, .871 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%
Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Damon Stoudamire
Career Stats: 34.3 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, .408 FG%, .358 3PT%, .834 FT%
2006/07 stats: 24.2 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, .391 FG%, .337 3PT%, .795 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.3 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, .465 FG%, .364 3PT%, .875 FT%
2007/08 projected stats (November/December): 18 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.1 SPG, .388 FG%, .350 3PT%, .844 FT%
Damon will be given about two months to prove that he is healthy and can contribute to a veteran team with playoff aspirations (or possibly even title dreams), at which point he will be traded to that team. Call it showcasing if you want, but I believe that this course of action is also necessary so that the Grizzlies don't just throw their young PG's to the wolves right off the bat.
Darko Milicic
Career stats: 15.0 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 BPG, .444 FG%, .610 FT%
2006/07 stats: 23.9 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.8 BPG, .454 FG%, .613 FT%
Preseason stats: 22.1 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, .351 FG%, .469 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Juan Carlos Navarro
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 24.1 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, .413 FG%, .419 3PT%, .833 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
"La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Kyle Lowry
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
2006/07 stats: (10 games) 17.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, .368 FG%, .375 3PT%, .893 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.4 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, .417 FG%, .000 3PT%, .706 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Stromile Swift
Career stats: 20.7 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 0.7 SPG, .471 FG%, .705 FT%
2006/07 stats: 19.1 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 0.6 SPG, .465 FG%, .724 FT%
Preseason stats: 18.6 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.75 BPG, 1.0 SPG, .688 FG%, .750 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.0 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .470 FG%, .711 FT%
I think that Stro will be playing elsewhere next season. Either he'll play to his normal levels and be traded (possibly in the impending Damon trade) or he'll exceed everyone's expectations, in which case he'll opt out of his contract to get one more substantial payday. Through the preseason, he has given fans reason to once again hope for a realization of his "Strotential" (hat tip: Scott), but I'm not sure that even a contract year is motivation enough for Stro to achieve consistency.
Hakim Warrick
Career stats: 19.2 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.3 BPG, 0.4 SPG, .504 FG%, .746 FT%
2006/07 stats: 26.2 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .524 FG%, .771 FT% Preseason stats: 17.4 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.75 SPG, .451 FG%, .645 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Michael Conley
Career stats: N/A
2006/07 stats: N/A
Preseason stats: 16.0 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, .38 SPG, .407 FG%, .500 3PT%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Casey Jacobsen
Career stats: 20.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, .399FG%, .370 3PT%, .770 FT%
2004/05 stats: 21.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, .406 FG%, .373 3PT%, .783 FT%
Preseason stats: 17.8 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, .583 FG%, .552 3PT%, .500 FT%
2006/07 projected stats: 8.5 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, .412 FG%, .389 3PT%, .786 FT%
For whatever reason, Casey seems to have taken Tarence Kinsey's allotment of minutes in the preseason. The most likely explanation for that is that Kinsey's shoulder injury from summer league is more serious than anyone thought. However, it could be that Jacobsen's outside shooting is seen as a more valuable commodity than Kinsey's perimeter defense at this point. We'll see how that plays out over the course of the season.
Tarence Kinsey
Career stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
2006/07 stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, .457 FG%, .283 3PT%, .796 FT%
Preseason stats: 13.8 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, .400 FG%, .250 3PT%, 1.000 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 15.2 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, .462 FG%, .311 3PT%, .781 FT%
TK impressed a lot of fans with his play during the last 3 weeks of last season. Of course, some pundits have openly wondered if that was merely a flash in the pan or if he can consistently play at that high level. Unfortunately, as noted above, we haven't seen much of Kinsey in the preseason to be able to gauge him on. I would hope that Kinsey can duplicate his "poor man's Tayshaun Prince" act from late last season, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting on it to happen.
Brian Cardinal
Career stats: 17.5 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, .425 fG%, .397 3PT%, .862 FT%
2006/07 stats: 11.2 MPG, 4.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8 SPG, .494 FG%, .409 3PT%, .926 FT%
Preseason stats: 10.6 MPG, 5.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.4 SPG, .435 FG%, .300 3PT%, .667 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 3.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, .467 FG%, .419 3PT%, .866 FT%
The Custodian has suffered through three injury plagued seasons since signing with the Grizzlies. While many fans consider his contract a millstone, I think that they have forgotten about how important he was to the team in 2004/05 when he carried the team while Pau Gasol was out battling foot issues, helping them to maintain momentum and reach the playoffs. I don't think that BC will get much burn this season, but his unique skillset could prove to be valuable, as he is a PF capable of shooting from the perimeter proficiently.
Andre Brown
Career stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
2006/07 stats: 7.1 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, .568 FG%, .600 FT%
Preseason stats: 20.7 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, .467 FG%, .500 FT%
2007/08 projected stats: 6.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, .551 FG%, .667 FT%
What can I say about a guy who probably won't see the floor except in blowouts and the case of injuries affecting the roster? He's long on hustle and short on ball-handling, so he'll get a few minutes here and there throughout the season, but will mostly spend time on the Inactive List.
So there are my predictions for the team's statistical outlook for the season. If you add them all up, it won't look right in terms of Team MPG, PPG, RPG, etc., but it never does, so don't worry about it.
Now the second part of the title to this thread is expectations. I was already working on this post when I wandered over to the Grizzlies Message Board and saw that someone else had a similar idea. The high-quality poster named bgassassin started a thread titled "For Rudy's sake, please dial down some of your expectations" , which implored Grizzlies' fans to be realistic in their predictions for the player many hope is the Grizzlies future star. He put great effort into finding statistics that showed that even the greatest of players struggled with certain aspects of the game in their formative years in the league. WIth his permission, I'm reproducing his work here:
With Rudy's shooting, someone needs to let him know that he doesn't have to be a great outside shooter now. Or for that matter an elite player now. Yet at the same time, I think we have been too harsh on him at times as well.
Jordan was not a good shooter when he came in the league. He was putting up big numbers while being a poor outside shooter. In fact, here are Jordan's 3pt% numbers his first four years and what he averaged:
84-85 - .173 (28.2ppg)
85-86 - .167 (22.7ppg, cut short due to injury)
86-87 - .182 (37.1ppg)
88-89 - .132 (35.0ppg)
Kobe has never even reached 40% from outside. His best was .383 five years ago. In fact, his second best shooting year was his rookie year (.375) and he struggled till the aforementioned time.
The player most of us compare him to, Shawn Marion, started out his first season at an atrocious .183 from behind the arc. He peaked in his third season and has regressed ever since.
Vince Carter started out at .288 from three.
And if we REALLY want to get picky, Reggie Miller shot .355 from outside his first season.
As you can see out of this selected group, only Kobe shot a higher percentage his rookie year than Rudy's .364. And as far as makes and attempts, only Reggie and Kobe are comparable in their first season. Is he really as bad as we think? Should two preseason games continue or even strengthen a certain thought about him? I will admit that I have been guilty of this thought as well at times.Rudy obviously must learn to attack the basket as often as possible to set up his jumpshot. At least then he should be in a position where he's not subconsciously falling away when he does shoot.
As you can see, many players who are considered elite superstars have struggled with parts of their game, only to develop that skill as their career progressed. For this team that is full of young talent (average age of the Grizzlies: 23.7 years old; 22.3 without Damon and BC), patience will be required when establishing expectations for the upcoming season, as well as their progress in the future. Too often we allow our best-case scenario "hopes and dreams" get mixed up with what is realistically achievable. That's one of the reasons I set our win prediction (37 wins) as low as I did. That is a 15-game improvement from last year which, injuries/bad luck or not in 2006/07, is a tremendous jump for any team that didn't acquire a star-level player in the offseason. I'd be happy with even fewer wins than that, to be quite honest.
Improving in the NBA is meant to be a gradual process, contrary to popular opinion. That's one of the reasons that only 8 teams have won a championship in the last 25 years. Many people are comparing this team to the 2003/04 Grizzlies that went from 28 wins the previous season to 50 wins and the playoffs. I admire their optimistic viewpoint, but that team skipped at least 3 steps that most young teams go through. In all likelihood, they should have gone from 28 wins to 33-36, then to 41-44 and then to 50 and the playoffs. This amazing jump lead to unrealistic expectations of title contention for a young NBA fanbase that wasn't as studied in the history of professional basketball as those in the cities of historic contenders (Boston, L.A., Chicago, Detroit, et al), despite having a rich basketball history in the area of high school and college levels. So, much like bgassassin, I urge all of you to temper your expectations for this Grizzlies team. I don't expect them to come roaring out of the gates. Rather, I expect a slow start, as the team develops chemistry, learns each other's tendencies and adapts to Marc Iavaroni's system. That means that they are quite likely going to be below .500 by more than a few games when January rolls around. This isn't all doom-and-gloom, though, because I think they will come together and play well for the last two to three months of the season, which will hopefully carry over to next year. That's my outlook for this season, so send all cheers or jeers to the Comments section.
7th Annual Tip-Off Luncheon
Links: Interview, Previews, Reconstruction, Beards, Free Throws
NBA.com has an interview with Mike Miller on their site. Many of Mike's answers clearly exhibit just how much he loves to play the game of basketball.
To what lengths would you go for a chance to play basketball, even if it were just a shoot around?
MM: Well, I played outside in the snow in South Dakota. So I think that is about as extreme as it gets.
Carlos Boozer previews the Western Conference for SLAM and has some nice things to say about the Grizzlies.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The biggest piece is Pau Gasol. He’s a seven-foot guy that can shoot the ball with his right and left hand, block shots, rebound, and he runs the floor very well. Hakim Warrick might get Most Improved – he’s a sleeper. I wanna see how good Juan Carlos Navarro does, and it’ll be interesting to see Darko get a bigger role. Mike Miller is a stud. Rudy Gay is as talented as any young guy in the League, and they have Dahntay Jones and Mike Conley. If their young guys grow up fast, they could be pretty good.
I'll let you tell him that Dahntay Jones doesn't play for the Grizzlies any more....or the Celtics for that matter.
The Sports Flow picks Memphis to finish last in the Southwest division, which isn't all that surprising.
NBA Glue projects the Grizzlies to win 39 games.
Showboating (Mavs blog) has us pegged for 36 wins and 10th in the West.
The Jackson Sun has a good article detailing the horror that was last season and the significant changes made this offseason to reconstruct the team.
You can get your very own Pau Gasol beard right here (hat tip: Monkey Boy).
Shane Battier hit 120 free throws in a row in practice. (Houston Chronicle via TrueHoop)
It Just Doesn't Matter
The Grizzlies have been in town going on 7 years and one thing has not changed in that entire time.
The Grizzlies have never won their home opener.
It just doesn't matter.
Sure they have been close like the triple overtime loss to the Knicks last year. We have been big underdogs, little underdogs and even favored like the first year at the FedEx Forum when a wounded Washington Wizards came here.
But we haven't won yet.
It just doesn't matter.
After all is it a big disappointment if you lose to the defending world champions? The Spurs are considered a dynasty. The team of the decade. They have a superstar in Tim Duncan and an all-star supporting cast of Tony Parker, Manu Ginoblili, Michael Finley, Robert Horry, etc. This team is so good they could trade away the rights to Luis Scola-who is starting in Houston- for a player that they released so he could play in Greece! Would it be that surprising if we lost the game?
It just doesn't matter.
The Opening Night is the only game you have 81 games to make amends for. 82 games is a long season and injuries have far greater impact than the outcome of the first game (unless that is the game one of your players gets injured in of course).
It just doesn't matter
It doesn't mean the season is lost if a team with 6 new players - Juan Carlos Navarro, Darco Milicic, Casey Jacobsen, Michael Conley, Andre Brown and Stromile Swift (well at least so far) - and a rookie coach in Marc Iavaroni doesn't upset the most experienced team in the league. Does it? Should we even focus on the streak?
It just doesn't matter!
The season the Grizzlies won 50 games they lost the opener. Boston won season. The team was below .500 on New Year's Day before exploding in the 2nd half of the season when the depth of the team outworked opponents and the chemistry of the team was at it's highest under the Hubie Brown era.
See it just doesn't matter!!
That was also Hubie's second season in Memphis. His first season was pretty much a disaster with only 28 wins to his credit. That was a 5 game improvement over the last season of Sydney Lowe however. Good things take time to develop. Baby steps become giant steps if the team hangs together through the tough times.
It just doesn't matter!!!
And if we win. HAH! And if we win and Stro unleashes his tremendous potential, Navarro shoots the La Bamba over Duncan's head, Miller reigns in bombs from all over the place, Gasol is totally healthy and explodes all around the rim and Darko intimidates the refs into giving us the calls for a change and even if God himself comes down and touches our goal, even if the tickets sales go up and everyone is happy it just doesn't matter.
Because when it is all said and done. Eva Longoria is still married to Tony Parker and there is nothing we can do about that!
It just doesn't matter.
It just doesn't matter.
It just doesn't matter.
I hope they aren't serving Meatballs at the Tip Off luncheon today...;^)
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Pre-Game Writeups
For the last three years I have contributed my thoughts on upcoming games on the Grizzlies Message Board. With the help of SixthMan and Zack we managed to present a convenient way to get a grasp of what to expect and look for at the upcoming games.
However, it has been slightly one-sided. I am a Grizzlies fan and see the world of basketball through Beale Street Blue tinted glasses I have been told. In the interest of objectivity and fair disclosure I want to invite bloggers from different teams to join me in an exchange of ideas. I will be offering my pre-game commentary for every game this season the Grizzlies play. In exchange I would appreciate the opponents for each game to respond in kind with their views of the game. I hope to initiate this process for Opening Nights against the San Antonio Spurs and continue all season.
Our objective is to make Shades of Blue the single most informative site for information about the Memphis Grizzlies. Hopefully by sharing this information with other bloggers we can assist their sites to become a similiar depository of information for their teams.
So if you blog for the Celtics, Hornets, Raptors or any other NBA team I hope you will contact our site and exchange previews of our games. I have already written the pre-game commentary for opening night against the Spurs if you would like an idea of what one of my pre-game commentary look like.
E-mail us at three_shades_ofblue@hotmail.com if you are interested in exchanging pre-game commentary.
Links: Tarence Kinsey "Poster Boy"
The State.com's Bob Spear has a very nice article about swingman Tarence Kinsey. He talks about how hard TK has worked to make it to the NBA and has some nice quotes about the undrafted 2nd year player.
“I take a lot of pride in how he developed,” (South Carolina coach Dave) Odom said. “He worked at the game and he earned his place.”
He signed a free-agent contract with the Grizzlies, but he saw little playing time much of last season. He really “made” the team during the stretches of DNPs in the box scores.
“He earned respect then,” Odom said. “A lot of players sit there, pout, collect their money and go home. Tarence didn’t do that; he kept working.
“(Former Grizzlies general manager) Jerry West told me he sought out the coaches to get in extra work. He caught their eye that way.”
“Jerry West told me Tarence had a better understanding of the game than anybody — anybody — on that team,” Odom said.
It's a really great look at Kinsey's perseverance and determination. Hopefully, he'll be able to play at an even higher level this season.
Make sure that you vote in the poll in the right-hand column, too. We'll have a new question there every week.
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