The Final Word at #5 and #28

If the millions (and millions -- thanks Rock!) of trade rumors produce nothing of substance for the Memphis Grizzlies (although I really liked that Lowry/#28 for Kleiza/#20 swap with Denver that died when the Nuggets traded the pick to Charlotte), then we'll still have the #5 and #28 picks in this draft. So here are our top two choices for each of those selections.

Pick #5
JC: Kevin Love and Eric Gordon
I really think that it will come down to these two players anyways, so why not go ahead and state the obvious. Kevin Love will be a solid force in the frontcourt for the next 10-15 years and will provide plenty of toughness and intelligence along the way. Besides, I can't wait for the first time they run that end-of-the-game full-court alley-oop from Love to Rudy Gay for a game-winning bucket.

Eric Gordon is the higher risk/reward prospect of the two. His athleticism and skillset lend themselves to being a star on the next level, even as the questions of his size make people forget that he was one of the top 3 players in college prior to his injury this past winter. I'll be happy with either one of them in Beale Street Blue next season.

Chip: Kevin Love and Eric Gordon
Love is the best rebounder in Memphis history if we draft him. Seriously, I honestly believe that. Throw in his passing skills, long range shooting and leadership skills and he is the obvious pick at #5. Unless a deal is in place to trade Miller, Lowry and Gasol to Miami for Beasley in which case Memphis needs a SG and Gordon is the man.

MemphisX: Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Love
Gallinari - Danilo and Gasol would be a difficult to defend pick and roll combination especially with Gallinari at the 4. Supposedly be measured 6'10 in socks. I think the pick and roll is the most effective half court set and the more players that can excel at it the better.

Kevin Love - Another good pick and roll guy. Adds physical and mental toughness to the team. Will be better than most think in the league. Can he keep the weight off?
Zack: Kevin Love and Danilo Gallinari
Love - I like his skill, but I'm concerned about his weight and size. In the end, he wants to be here and will not be spectacular, but will clearly be very solid for years to come.
The Italian Stallion - Hopefully his guard skills in a SF body translate and we go big and try to cause matchup problems.

Pick #28
JC: Bill Walker and D.J. White (unless Chris Douglas-Roberts is still on the board)
Whichever direction the Grizzlies go with the first pick (paint or perimeter), I'd expect them to weigh their options and likely go in the other direction at #28. Walker is a tremendously talented player with a reputation for having a very high basketball IQ and a willingness to learn and develop to go with his outstanding athleticism. White is one tough hombre in the post and would instantly elevate the intensity level of those around him as a solid presence off the bench. If the more coveted players such as CDR are already gone, then either of these players would be a good addition.

Chip: Nicolas Batum and Bill Walker
I like talented players falling on health concerns late in the draft. Batum is falling because of rumors of a bad heart. Walker is falling because he tweaked his knee. Both could be legitmate concerns but if they aren't Memphis pulls a Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince type of pick (and possibly some redemption for the Gasol pick).

MemphisX: J.J. Hickson and D.J. White
J.J. Hickson - Very young with untapped potential. Physical and athletic. Good hands. Good finisher.

D.J. White - Just 21 and very productive at Indiana. He impacts the game on offense, defense and the boards. Long arms. Plays big. Tough guy.

Zack: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Nicolas Batum
CDR - I love his game and think he will be one of the top 10 players from this draft in 10 years. Trade up for him if we have to. I love the way he can find ways to score - just ask Brandon Rush and Russell Westbrook.
Batum - He's slipping due to heart problems, so he is probably a value pick, but will he get past Portland at their newly acquired #27 pick?

2005 Lottery Pick No Longer a Clipper

During the 2005 NBA Draft, three players fell further than expected: Danny Granger, Gerald Green, and Hakim Warrick. Those three ended up going 17th, 18th, and 19th, respectively.

One reason the Griz were able to snag Hak at #19 is because the Clippers fell asleep at the wheel and drafted Yaroslav Korolev at #12. Here is what the Sports Guy had to say at the time in his annual running draft diary:

8:44 – Did you enjoy the Elgin Baylor Era? The Clips took Mike Dunleavy's guy (Yaroslav Korolev) at No. 12, signifying Elgin's inevitable move upstairs that came about eight years too late. We'll remember Elgin as a Hall of Famer, a veteran of the lottery process, and the guy who said about Shaun Livingston's progress last year, "It might take a season, it might take half a season, it might take a year." Farewell, Elgin. Farewell.

(And just for the record, as a Clippers season-ticket holder, consider this my formal complaint that they passed on Granger for some Russian dude who can't help them for three to four years. I'm sending my second installment of my payment plan to the Clips right after I dip it in golden retriever urine.)

I bring this up because last week the Clippers announced they have rescinded their contracted offer on Yaroslav Korolev, the 12th overall pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. Only 2 years after being a lottery pick, Korolev will be lucky to make an NBA roster this year.

I take satisfaction in seeing other NBA teams blow a draft pick, espicially teams in the West drafting ahead of the Grizzlies. (This year the laughs on you Portland....hahaha....just kidding....sort of)

One goal I have while blogging during the upcoming NBA season is to introduce Griz fans to other blogs around the net that cover a specific NBA team. This seems like a good opportunity to do that for the Clippers. Clips Nation covers the Clippers on SBNation. Needless to say, ClipperSteve doesn't seem thrilled with what transpired with Korolev:

1. They wasted a lottery pick on a guy that no one else would have taken in the lottery
2. They wasted a roster spot on a guy who wasn't ready.
3. They did nothing to develop the guy.
4. They didn't leave him in Europe.
5. They could have drafted for immediate help.
6. They could have drafted for spectacular potential.

So, Elgin, thanks for helping Hak fall to the Grizzlies in 2005. With Brand out, I'm sure Hak could have been useful this year.

Free Agency Fallout

Fans love the frenzy that comes with the offseason. Trades are made, draft picks are scrutinized, free agents are pursued and hope is renewed. This is more true in the NBA than in any other sport, as they tend to have the most active market of any professional sport in America. While the fans love it, the players likely have a different feeling altogether in association with the uncertainty that the offseason brings.

For example, what is Phoenix Suns forward Shawn Marion to think when there are trade rumors swirling about, with the most likely destination being Utah? Or how about Cleveland Cavaliers big man Anderson Varejao and swingman Sasha Pavlovic, who have yet to be offered contracts by the team, despite interest from other teams during the initial free agent period? It appears they'll be re-signing, but when?

Then there are the ramifications of what happens when a team signs one free agent at the expense of re-signing one of their own or having to trade away a player to free up minutes or avoid the luxury tax. Let's take a look at a few situations where that occurred this summer.

Boston Celtics: Traded for Ray Allen, giving up Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the #5 draft pick (SF Jeff Green) to the Seattle Supersonics.

Seattle Supersonics: They acquired three SF's (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Wally Szczerbiak), effectively paving the way for Rashard Lewis to leave town, which he did in in a sign-and-trade to Orlando for a conditional 2nd round pick.

Orlando Magic: They signed Rashard Lewis to a monstrous free agent contract (6 years, $110 million), so they had to bite the bullet and withdraw the qualifying offer to Darko Milicic, rather than even attempt a sign-and-trade because they couldn't take back any additional salary.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies then signed Darko to a 3 year contract and waived forward Alexander Johnson. Johnson later signed with the Miami Heat, who we'll hear from later.

Milwaukee Bucks: They re-signed PG Mo Williams to a extension, which then led restricted free agent G Charlie Bell to decide that he wasn't needed in Wisconsin any longer. So Bell signed an offer sheet with the Miami Heat.

Miami Heat: Signed Charlie Bell to an offer sheet, leading to speculation that oft-injured PG Jason Williams will be moved, for the purposes of playing time and luxury tax implications. Finding a new home for J-Will could potentially save the Heat millions this season. Perhaps he'll go to Atlanta since Milwaukee just signed Royal Ivey to a contract.

As you can see, transactions in the NBA can have a domino effect that can affect multiple players and teams and lead to many other transactions and deals being made. This was just a small sample that really started with just two teams each making a move, but it involved 6 teams and might not be finished yet. I could go on and on with every transaction made this offseason, playing connect the dots, but I think I've made my point. This is also another thing to consider when factoring in just how difficult it must be a GM in the NBA, when you never know how the Butterfly Effect will touch you.

Grizzlies look to acquire Juan Carlos Navarro

The terms of the deal are believed to be as follows per Chris Vernon at cvernon.com:

Memphis receives J.C. Navarro. Washington will receive a first round pick from the Grizzlies (contrary to what has been reported, I am told that this is how it will break down). I will try to make this as simple as I can, but it is a little tricky.
'08 if the Grizzlies select 20 or further down, it goes to the Wizards (top 19 protected)
'09 if the Grizzlies select 17 or further down, it goes to the Wizards (top 16 protected)
'10- '12 the Grizzlies pick is lottery protected
'13 - the pick is top 12 protected and if it has not been given, cash considerations will be given to the Wizards.

Face value, this deal isn't a great one, because we are, in fact, potentially giving up a 1st round pick for a player who can only sign a one-year deal. A player that's not a big name or a proven contributor, I might add. Most of the people who are opposing this deal see it in those terms.

However, if you weigh in all the factors, you'll see that this is a low-risk deal. First, unless he signs a contract, we're not parting with anything. Second, the draft pick is lottery protected, so there is a strong possibility that it will be rolled over to the following year's draft anyways. Third, Navarro's friendship (and loyalty) to Gasol make it a strong bet that he'll be ready to re-sign with the Grizzlies next offseason without holding us over the proverbial barrel. Fourth, this move will be the "cherry on top" in meeting Gasol's various requests over the past few seasons, since he's already been provided with two capable young point guards and the big man he's been in need of for the past 4 years. Acquiring his best friend -- who isn't exactly a sub-standard shooter, by the way -- should lay to rest the last of his concerns about the team being willing to do what is necessary to not only compete and move towards being a contender, but to also prove that they feel he is the cornerstone that they want to build around.

I don't believe in kowtowing to a player's demands simply for the sake of "keeping them happy", but since we all seem to recognize that Navarro will likely be a solid pro and will upgrade the overall talent level of the team, I see this as a positive move for the franchise as a whole, not just for Pau. The Heat and Lakers were both working to acquire Navarro's services, so I'm fairly certain that he has the talent level to make an impact in the NBA.

The Grizzlies Draft Tonight

I honestly am completely confused about the team's moves tonight.

I think that is what makes it so exciting!

The good news is that I don't believe we will make a mistake no matter which of the players we take. Horford is a strong PF that reminds me of Karl Malone. Mike Conley is an ultrafast PG ala Tony Parker. Brandon Wright is an exciting uptempo PF in the mold of Boris Diaw but with greater potential. Joakim Noah is a high energy player that could be a Tyson Chandler type of player. His combination of defense and speed would seem to fit in perfectly with the style of play we have been told to expect from Iavaroni.

How can we go wrong?

Of course there is still danger in picking a player who doesn't turn out to be as good as someone else as a rookie. Horford could be another undersized PF who can't get to the ball without that size. Conley hasn't got a reliable outside shot and with teams packing the lane against him it could make it more difficult to get the ball to Pau. Brandon Wright is weak compared to most NBA players and is the farthest player from being NBA ready. Will he continue to develop while fighting the grind of the NBA season? Joakim Noah has no range on his shot and would clog the lane making it more difficult for Pau to operate.

I see the pros and cons of all the rookies. I don't believe in the long run anyone will question our pick but Memphis is funny that way. People still criticize the Drew Gooden selection despite him starting in the NBA finals this season and nearly averaging a double double and his trade brought us the 2nd best player on the team currently.

One thing for sure is that the rumors about tonight has helped break down the disconnect with the fans. For that I am grateful.

What Now?

It's been over a month since my last post --mostly because I was extremely busy, but partly because I was ready for a break from the ever-present slide towards morose negativity revolving around the Memphis Grizzlies organization -- but now I'm back to assess what direction the team needs to take from this point forward. It has been one week since the draft lottery, when I joined GrizzMAN, memphis slim and chipc3 for an evening of pontificating and commiserating. In the seven days since that fateful decision was handed out, I have come to accept the results (with much less of a "Chicken Little complex" than many of my fellow fans) and have made a decision on what needs to happen next for the Grizzlies.

Obviously, the first set of things that needs to be taken care of involve the team's infrastructure and front office. The team needs a new owner (or at the very least, an accountable owner), a new GM and a new coaching staff. This is clearly the opening move of a rebuilding of sorts for this team. I've already detailed the people that I think are suitable for these positions (GM's: Presti, Griffin, Vandeweghe; Coaches: Iavaroni, Elie, Carlisle, Van Gundy), so there is no need to rehash that information.

The next step is to address the draft -- most specifically, whether to only select a player with the 4th overall pick or look to make moves to acquire a second (or third) pick, or possibly to move up into the top 2 by grossly overpaying. Over the past week, I've heard every imaginable scenario to do all of these things and here is what I've come up with as a plausible reality.

First, see what interest there is by teams in the lottery looking to move their pick for a future pick or a veteran player -- specifically Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta and Charlotte. There are cases for each of these teams to want to move out of the draft so that they don't have another young player on their roster, but nowhere is that case more evident than in Boston (where they have to placate Paul Pierce almost immediately or risk a situation similiar to the Iverson debacle of last season) or Charlotte (who are very, very long on young talent and very, very short on veteran leadership and consistent scoring). Boston will likely seek an arm, a leg and several key organs to move out of the 5th pick, so I don't know that they are a viable partner unless the team has decided to part ways with Gasol. Charlotte, on the other hand, might be more willing to deal if the Grizzlies are willing to give up Mike Miller, who could instantly provide that scoring and veteran presence to the Bobcats.

Trading Miller leads us to the next part of my analysis: who the Grizzlies should take with the #4 pick. Unless they are absolutely certain that they will be able to pick up a second top 10 pick and that he would be available at that position, I believe that Corey Brewer is the best pick for the organization. Paired with Rudy Gay on the wings for the next 5-10 years, they would provide the Grizz with a formidable combination of defensive intensity, athleticism and scoring. Add in the intensity that Kyle Lowry brought to the table in his brief stint last season, and you could have a trio on the wings very similar to the Pistons' group of Billups/Hamilton/Prince. The only other player I see as a viable choice at that position is Al Horford, who is about .007 behind Brewer in my current draft analysis, but still a few full points ahead of Mike Conley, Brandan Wright and Yi Jianlin. In other words, I'd rank those two players at #3 and #4 at the very worst as of this moment......and might even take Brewer over Durant. *Send all comments about blasphemy through the appropriate channels.*

If the Grizzlies are able to swing a deal with any other teams in the lottery, then select the best player available there, as well. DO NOT DRAFT BASED ON NEED!!! *Rant Warning* I don't want to see a Bowie over Jordan situation at this point, since this is a very critical juncture for the future of this organization. By the same token, don't overanalyze to the point of taking a project (Marvin Williams) over an obviously great player (Chris Paul). Sound like double-speak? It's not. It is actually the same scenario in both cases. In 1984, Jordan was clearly the best player on the board; in 2005, CP3 was clearly the best player on the board. While I hate to play the "hindsight game", this isn't a case of teams passing up players because of perceived weakness (in the Carlos Boozer is too small or Josh Howard can't adapt to NBA defenses model), but because it seems that NBA GM's all want to "discover talent", rather than recognizing it and drafting accordingly. Sometimes playing it safe comes back to haunt you, as the Grizzlies have witnessed with the draft selections of Drew Gooden, Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones. Other times it pays off, as with the recent selections of Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay.

Ok, back to the present situation. If there was a way to take both Brewer and Horford (both great players who fill needs on the current Grizzlies' roster), then I would welcome it. I don't see it happening, though, so I'd prefer them to take the multi-dimensional Brewer over the solid, Boozer-lite potential and consistency of Horford. The team has done a good job of finagling second-round picks out of teams over the past few seasons, so hopefully they will manage to do that one more time with this being an especially deep draft.

Let me take a step back to address something I think a few fans might question, which is my willingness to so casually part with Mike Miller. That is a decision that has been made with a lot of careful consideration, so don't think of it as a flippant response to my current infatuation with the potential of Corey Brewer. I heard Geoff Calkins on the radio last week with a trade proposal that would have sent Miller to the Nuggets for Marcus Camby and as I contemplated that scenario, I must admit that I grew to like it more and more. Moves like that will need to be made in order for this organization to move forward -- much like the Battier to Houston trade was a necessity, no matter how painful it made this past season or how sorely his presence was missed, both on and off the court.

The last thing I want to address is what to do with Pau Gasol. I have heard both sides of the argument and remain convinced that the team has to keep him through this offseason. If a deal comes up that is beneficial, then I understand why they would want to part with him, but I don't see any teams out there that won't view the Grizzlies as being in a position of weakness at this point. If they wait until the season has started, and perhaps one of the contenders starts off slowly, then they will be in a position of equality at the very worst. There is virtually no way for them to receive anything back that would balance out what they would be losing in trading away Gasol during the offseason. I'll take his boring consistency through the season over a draft pick and a couple of spare parts from another team. And for all the complaints about his wallflower routine in the 4th quarters of several games, he is remarkably consistent. If his scoring goes down, then his rebounding and shot-blocking almost always go up. That's not a bad thing to be in a league where 25 ppg scorers have been known to fall off the face of the earth quite suddenly.

In conclusion, I think it is obvious that this organization needs to start at the top and then work its way down in order to solve all of its issues and problems. Getting the local owners to make a solid bid for the team would be an excellent start in my book. Putting pressure on Heisley to accept that bid would be even better. Installing a GM and coach before the draft would be intelligent moves, too. But what do I know? I'm just the paying customer, after all.

Sleepers

I'd like to take a look at a few players that might be flying under the radar right now, but will likely become solid players in the NBA by their 3rd year. Some of these guys are well-known college players that the "experts" are simply doubting (the Michael Redd/Gilbert Arenas/Carlos Boozer types) and some of them come from smaller schools, so they haven't received nearly as much coverage throughout their careers (the Anthony Mason/Dennis Rodman/Scottie Pippen types). Let's see what's out there, shall we?

Morris Almond (Rice) -- I detailed him in my draft analysis, but I really think that he could be a much more complete player than many scouts are predicting. His scoring ability is amazing, but with some work, he could be a legit starter with an all-around skillset.

Rodney Stuckey (Eastern Washington) -- Another great scorer, he's projected to be a combo guard in the NBA. He's also a solid defender, which brings to mind a younger, taller Bobby Jackson.

Ron Lewis (Ohio State) -- Lewis has proven that he's willing and able to take the big shot in end-game situations. That's a trait that every team is looking for in a player. He's also a good rebounder for his size and is a good defender on both the perimeter and in the post.

Alando Tucker (Wisconsin) -- Tucker wasn't able to lead his team to much success in the tournament after the loss of center Brian Butch, but that shouldn't have dragged his draft stock down as much as it has. He possesses great athleticism, which he understands how to use to its fullest advantage. He's a shooting guard who plays more like a power forward at times, using his strength to achieve an end result to his liking. He'll need to work on his perimeter shooting, but whichever team that winds up with him will likely be very pleased a few years down the road.

Glen Davis (LSU) -- He probably should have entered the draft last year, but c'est la vie. The absolute antithesis of a prototype power forward, his physique and skillset bring to mind another chunky rebounder who went by the name "Sir Charles". He'll likely never reach that level of accomplishment in his career, but if he can stay focused and mentally prepared, then Davis could be a guy who surprises a lot of teams.

Avis Wyatt (Virginia State) -- I've seen him play only once, but I think he'll figure out a way to find a place in the NBA, even if it means a stop in the D-League at some point. He's a good athlete with great defensive skills. He's too skinny to play in the post full time, but he displayed a solid mid-range game that could prove to be his ticket to sticking around at the next level.

Aaron Brooks (Oregon) -- A great scorer, but also more than a little selfish, Brooks will have to be drafted/signed by the right team or he'll never have a fighting chance in the NBA. With his lightning quick first step and sub-6 ft. height, he is reminiscent of a poor man's Damon Stoudamire. If he finds the right system, he could be a dynamic scoring threat as a sixth man.

You can mention anyone I might have overlooked in the Comments.

Delving into the Draft

I detailed the players that I believe the Grizzlies should target if they wind up with a pick outside the Top 2 on the message board (quick recap -- Hibbert, Brewer, Horford, Conley). But now I want to take a more detailed look at who is out there in the draft, since many people have claimed that this is the deepest draft since 2003, 1999 or 1998, depending on perspective. These same people have also been clamoring for the Grizzlies to find a way to acquire a few more picks in the draft, often through whatever means necessary, no matter how short-sighted they might be. So let's find out who could be the next difference maker or role player. These are not in the order I see them being drafted necessarily either and I'm only going to discuss players I have seen in game action, so no Yi Jianlian, Nicolas Batum or Marco Belinelli here. Go check out one of the dozens of reputable draft sites for info on them.

Greg Oden (Ohio State) -- If you read my earlier post, then you already know what I think about him. The "next Bill Russell" is already a great shot-blocker and a solid rebounder who has shown that he can score in a variety of ways as well. He's #1 on the board with a bullet. The one thing he will definitely have to work on is his conditioning, which was absolutely abysmal during the NCAA tournament. Some time in the weight room, a personal trainer, a nutritionist and a personal chef wouldn't hurt either. You can afford those things in the NBA though.

Kevin Durant (Texas) -- While everyone wants to compare him to Kevin Garnett (something I don't understand now), in reality he is a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki.....with better range. Capable of leading his team in scoring, rebounding and dropped jaws, he will need to hit the weight room in order to survive in the NBA. His defense also needs a lot of honing, both one-on-one and help defensive tactics. There is some concern about how much he will need the ball to be effective, as well.

Corey Brewer (Florida) -- The prototype for an all-around swingman. He can shoot from anywhere on the floor, find open teammates and play suffocating defense. Perhaps the most NBA ready player in the draft, he is receiving favorable comparisons from nearly all the experts, with my favorite being referred to as a "young Eddie Jones". He's a good rebounder who is reputed to have an outstanding work ethic, which should make him very attractive for a lot of teams. His ballhandling is somewhat suspect (reminiscent of Rudy Gay in this respect) and he will need to learn how to create his own shot more effectively.

Brandan Wright (North Carolina) -- The first word from everyone's lips when discussing him is "potential". He could be the next Chris Bosh, LaMarcus Aldridge or Channing Frye. Or he could be a guy who never quite lives up to that "potential". That's why the draft is an inexact science. With his great athleticism, massive wingspan, ever-growing offensive arsenal and seemingly natural ability to do anything on the court, he is a tantalizing prospect who will almost certainly go in the Top 5 of the draft. Like many of the prospects, he is going to have to spend a lot of time in the weight room so that he doesn't get broken in half by midseason.

Julian Wright (Kansas) -- Surprised many by declaring for the draft, but I don't think another year in college (particularly under Bill Self) would help him develop into a better NBA player, so what does he have to lose? Another great athlete, Wright is an adept ballhandler, which has been somewhat detrimental to the development of his jumpshot, which is merely adequate at this point. He's a very unselfish player (perhaps to a fault) who rarely forces things. He has developed a nice post game, which will help him as he continues to increase his range on his jumper.

Al Horford (Florida) -- I've seen the comparison to Carlos Boozer repeated often and I think it fits with one caveat.....Boozer doesn't have the nasty streak that Horford does. His attitude reminds me of Charles Oakley or Anthony Mason -- a true regulator of the paint. An impressive rebounder with good athleticism and one of the few prospects who won't need as much time in the weight room to adjust, Horford is also an above-average defender and shot blocker. He needs to work on his mid-range game and improve his free-throw shooting, but will definitely be a solid PF for whatever team drafts him.

Roy Hibbert (Georgetown) -- A solid scorer and decent rebounder, Hibbert isn't much of an athlete. He reminds me a lot of Eddy Curry, but with a better work ethic (or maybe just Curry if he'd gone to college?). He has the one thing that you cannot teach or develop in the NBA: SIZE. At 7'2", 280 lbs., he is a beast to deal with for anyone in the league. He has great touch around the basket and is a very good free throw shooter, so any team looking for a center would be wise to give him a second (or third....or tenth) look. His conditioning will have to improve for him to excel at the next level.

Mike Conley, Jr. (Ohio State) -- He displayed his amazing level of skill and talent throughout the season and the tournament, impressing nearly all of the experts along the way. He has great athletic ability, as well as the poise that you demand from your point guard during crunch time situations. With a variety of ways to score, Conley is the threat that opposing coaches fear, since he isn't guaranteed to pass first, second and always with the game on the line. He will need to increase the range on his perimeter shooting to become an even more dangerous player.

Joakim Noah (Florida) -- The very definition of a high motor, hustle player, I think of Noah as a 7-foot version of Brian Cardinal. Ok, ok, Shane Battier. Needless to say, I'm not a huge fan of what he brings to the table in terms of all-around basketball ability. I mean, let's face it, would you spend a high lottery pick on a guy who looks like this:

I didn't think so. I appreciate the fact that he has great leadership skills and a high basketball IQ, as well as a good understanding of defensive principles. But he can't shoot and has a very limited post game, which presents problems for him in the NBA. Much like the case was with Mark Madsen (very good college player, very average NBA player), I see him as a valuable role player, a "glue guy" moreso than a guy you can run plays for with any consistency.

Jeff Green (Georgetown) -- Went from "Who???" to "that guy who just takes over games" to "The Magician (aka "The Disappearing Act") over the course of the season and tournaments. Green is a guy who isn't particularly great at any one thing, but is above average at practically everything. The consumate jack-of-all-trades, master of none, if you will. He does possess remarkable vision for a SF. The biggest areas he'll need to work on in the NBA are his perimeter shooting and his defense, which is only passable at this point due to poor fundamentals.

Derrick Byars (Vanderbilt) -- I'll admit that I only saw him play a handful of games this year (Vandy not being high on my basketball radar, after all), but what I saw from him did convince me that he'll be a solid pro. He's a good defender with no glaring weaknesses in his skillset. He has the versatility to play either wing position, plus he even ran the point some this season, which is always helpful. He's not active enough without the ball in his hands, but that is something that he can learn at the next level.

Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech) -- Phenomenal athlete with unreal potential. He does have a few gaping holes in his game, though. His perimeter shooting needs a lot of work, as he only seems confident when he has his feet set under him. He's not that comfortable coming off screens or pulling up off the dribble. His ballhandling is very suspect as well, which is a problem if he intends to stay at SF at the next level. I see the same problems with Young that I witnessed with Shawne WIlliams at Memphis last season -- he does 2 or 3 things really well, but seems intent on proving that he can do 7 or 8 things really well. He doesn't go to his strengths nearly often enough, which has exposed his glaring weaknesses in his first collegiate season. He would be better served returning for another season at Tech, in my estimation.

Al Thornton (Florida State) -- To me, perhaps the biggest question mark in the draft. He's older than most (he'll be 24 in December), but is also far more athletic than most, too. He's been tagged with the dreaded "tweener" label, but I think his great mid-range game and unreal physical ability will be enough to allow him to squeeze into the top part of the draft. He needs to expand the range on his jumper and hone his ballhandling skills, as well as spend some time getting acquainted with the concept of "passing" -- one of the few weaknesses he has, but is it ever an obvious one. I see him becoming a poor man's Shawn Marion, who is also the best tweener forward in the NBA, so that's not a comparison to take lightly.

Acie Law IV (Texas A&M) -- A PG with good size (6'3") and a reputation for being clutch, Law has developed light years from what he was in his freshman season with the Aggies. He has the ability to play at any tempo and remains in control throughout the game. A solid playmaker, Law has also shown that he can be creative in shaking himself free for a shot, too. His defense will need a lot of work at the next level, but his mastery of the offensive side of the ball more than compensates for that. The Sam Cassell comparisons are very accurate, IMO.

Spencer Hawes (Washington) -- He has a great array of post moves in his arsenal and the ability to finish with either hand, which has left more than one defender with a sheepish look on his face. Hawes is also a skilled passer, drawing comparisons to Brad Miller and Vlade Divac. He can also step out and hit mid-range jumpers, even with defensive pressure. Something that has concerned many scouts is his low rebounding numbers, but according to a person who watches a lot of Pac-10 games, this is mostly due to the fact that one of Hawes' teammates is a rebounding machine. Judging by the numbers on their team page, I can only assume that player is sophmore Jon Brockman. Hawes is not a great athlete and is somewhat thin for a 7 footer (although not Shawn Bradley "stick man" thin), but he has managed to hold his own against several heralded big men so far. In any other year, he'd probably be the #1 center prospect in the draft.

Hasheem Thabeet (Conneticut) -- We go from "polished product" in Spencer Hawes to "raw block of wood" in Thabeet. If anyone wastes a first round pick on him, then they deserve what they get. I understand that he's doing it for financial reasons more than anything (his family is still overseas in Tanzania), but that should affect any GM's evaluation of him. He's a great shotblocker......and that's it. He can't score and doesn't rebound well. Much like other "projects" before him (Mutombo and Okafor come to mind), he needs 4 years of school to develop into an actual basketball player. Even one more season in college would help him tremendously.

Aaron Gray (Pittsburgh) -- BUST! Next! Ok, ok, I'll talk about him, even though he doesn't deserve the time or effort. Gray has a variety of post moves at his disposal, but shies away from physicality so much that he neglects to take advantage of them. He has also displayed a level of inconsistency that isn't going to be viewed favorably by many scouts. His games against players that he'd face in the NBA typically produced very poor results for him. He was completely shut down in matchups against Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes this year. I honestly believe that he lacks the heart and the toughness to last in the NBA.

Arron Affalo (UCLA) -- A very good all-around shooter, Affalo has also shown the ability to finish in traffic due to his body control and strength. He's also an underrated rebounder at 6'5" and a decent defender. His lack of great athleticism prevents him from being a great player at the next level, but he should be a solid player in the NBA for the next 10 years based on his solid fundamentals and understanding of the game.

Josh McRoberts (Duke) -- A poor man's Christian Laettner. Any questions?

Morris Almond (Rice) -- His picture should be next to the definition of "scorer" in the collegiate edition of the dictionary. He'll probably make his living in the NBA as a dynamite 6th man/occasional starter, as he is a bigger version of what Ben Gordon was coming out of UConn a few years ago. A lightning quick release from anywhere on the floor and the ability to create his own shot despite average athletic ability has given NBA scouts reason to pause and take notice. He should spend some time on his defensive fundamentals, which to this point have only received token interest, as well as his overall ballhandling skills. Teams in need of instant offense should definitely consider him.

Nick Young (USC) -- Only saw him three times outside of the tournament (twice against Arizona, once against Washington), but he reminded me a lot of both Antawn Jamison and Josh Howard in the way that he scored from unconventional angles and approaches. He is sneaky athletic, almost lulling defenders to sleep with his consistency from mid-range before surprising them with a quick move to the basket for an uncontested layup or dunk. I've seen him play great defense....and I've seen him play below-average defense, so he needs to work on consistency in that area. Another guy who should be a solid pro for the next decade.

I'll be working on a list of Sleepers next, so look for it sometime next week.