Tarence Kinsey Waived

From Rookie of the Month in April to the unemployment line in December. My how the mighty have fallen.

TKO, as his fans called him, got the knockout punch as the Grizzlies went in search of someone who could provide a more physical presence at the small forward position. With Kinsey's low contract and fan support the move is rather shocking. Rumors of a poor relationship with the coaching staff probably were truer than originally suspected but again let me say they were only rumors and I don't know either way if they were true or not.

Marlon Morgan is reporting that the Grizzlies have another player in mind to replace Kinsey and it is possible that this player will be announced as early as tonight.

Kinsey finishes his career in Memphis averaging 6.9 ppg on 45.3 FG%, 30.2% from the arc, 1.8 rpg, 0.7 apg and 12 games started. He had career highs of 28 points twice, had 5 steals in a game against Phoenix, 7 assists against Minnesota, 8 defensive rebounds in a game once, 9 total rebounds in a game and once took 15 free throws in a game.

Kinsey was a long shot to make the team last season after fracturing his orbital socket in training camp but somehow worked his way onto the team, into the lineup and finally into a starting role in his rookie year.



Chris Vernon is reporting that the Grizzlies will sign Jeremy Richardson to fill Kinsey's roster spot. If true then this may be a good signing. Jeremy Richardson was recently named D-League Performer of the week. At 6-7 195 pounds Richardson is no banger but does provide more size than Kinsey. He has previous NBA experience with Atlanta and Portland.

'Busting' Out for the Grizzlies

Breaking News: Apparently at least one fan is willing to get down and dirty in her support of the team. According to sources an attractive female in the stands bared her breasts when her image was flashed on the jumbo-tron. At this time we have no word on how the Grizzlies plan on dealing with this situation.

I suggest season tickets in my section for the woman or plastic beads to all men over 21!

A quote from an 'eye' witness of the event:

She wasn't very well endowed (which can be deceiving since lifting your arms/shirt can make you look smaller than when your arms are down), college-aged or close, and I guess I'd have to say her appearance was "average" since I can't remember if I'd put her at either end of the attractive scale. She may have been cold at the time...

Thanks to the woman who thought outside of the box to find ways to attract more fans to the game!

UPDATE: Lauren Lee of Fox Sports News beat us to the punch and got this story. However we are still attempting to get a personal interview.

Correlating Grizzlies Success

I've mentioned a few times in pregame write-ups, that since the Grizzlies are so bad at defense that they need to shoot well to win, and in particular 3-point shooting seems to be essential.

Of course, this issue hasn't gotten past Chris Herrington either. He has been bringing the topic up over and over again in his pre- and post-game analyses. In fact, this is what he wrote after the Warriors game:

The Overwhelming Importance of Three-Point Shooting
I’ve been hammering this all season, but perhaps no game this season has illustrated how much this Grizzlies team depends on three-point shooting than tonight’s did. The Grizzlies shot 9-29 (31%) from three on the game, which isn’t terrible on the surface, but also isn’t generally good enough. On the season, the team is now 5-4 when they hit 10 or more threes, 2-13 when they don’t.

And what’s so intimidating is that the Grizzlies don’t just have to be good from three to win. They have to be great. In losses this season, the Grizzlies have shot a respectable 37% as a team on threes, with 36% and 40% shooting, respectively, from Mike Miller and Juan Carlos Navarro. In wins, the team has shot 42% from three with 52% and 42% shooting from Miller and Navarro, respectively. Essentially, the Grizzlies are so bad defensively and, with Gasol either slumping or injured most of the season, so erratic in the post that they have to hit a lot of threes to score enough to win.

I think just about anyone that follows the Grizzlies will agree that this team lives by the 3 and dies by the 3. The biggest stat that jumps out to me is that the Griz are only 2-13 when not hitting 10 or more treys.

This observation caused me to dive a little deeper in an attempt to further back up the claim that Grizzlies success is correlated to 3-point shooting.

Here is the question I am going to investigate here:

What team statistics correlate with Grizzlies success?

To investigate this question, I correlate the Grizzlies eam statistics to point differential, using the game-log stats provided by stats.com. I am using point differential instead of merely win/loss because it lends itself to a statistical analysis better. And also, this post goes great with Chip's recent post about scoring efficiency and be on the lookout for yet another statistical based post by MemphisX on turnovers and points off of them.

What is the Correlation Coefficient?

The correlation coefficient relates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and 1. A coefficient of 0 (zero) indicates no correlation. 'Significant' correlation is usually defined to be between 0.5 and 1 (and of course -0.5 and -1). 'Moderate' correlation is usually defined to be between +/-0.3 and +/-0.5. For this exercise I am going to mostly concentrate on any statistical categories that fall into the 'significant' range since our sample size is a bit small.

It should also be noted though that correlation does not imply causation. I am not looking for a cause to why the Griz win or loss games, but rather just what statistical categories tend to correlate best with Grizzlies success.

As well as the correlation coefficient between two sets of data, I calculate the probability of getting the observed correlation by random chance when the true correlation is zero. For this number, the lower the better, and typically below 0.05 is considered improbable, which would then support the hypothesis that the two variables are 'significantly' correlated.

All in all there are many caveats to take into consideration when examining the correlation between two variables, but nonetheless let's move on. I leave the 'be skeptical' lecture to your statistics professor.

Results

I correlated most, if not all, the available team statistics to point differential for the 24 games played this year (that is up through the Golden State game). The usual suspects are there: points, made and attempted shots (FG, FT and 3), percentage for and against, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. Below is a table showing the results (correlation coefficient and probability of random chance) for these various categories.

The Obvious: Scoring More Points Helps

The two obvious categories that show a significant correlation to point differential are points scored and FG's made. Both points scored and FG's made have a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.56.

In short, the Grizzlies win more when the score more. Makes sense and it follows logically from the conventional wisdom that the Griz are always bad on defense, so to be competitive they must score a lot. Notice I said 'be competitive' and not 'win'. That is because I am correlating the game stats with point differential. So, in theory we could not have won a single game, but still show a significant correlation to a certain statistic.

Below are the two scatter plots of points scored and FG's made versus point differential. The red line is the linear least-squares fit between the data. Something to remember is that the correlation coefficient is describing the scatter of the data about that best fit line, not the slope of the line. A higher correlation coefficient means less scatter. Click the plots to see them in more detail.

FG%

When it comes to FG%, our opponents FG% shows more correlation (significant at -0.52) to point differential than Grizzlies FG% (which is only moderate at 0.43). This was interesting to me. Scoring more points correlates better to point differential than allowing less points (0.56 to -0.36). However, the opposite is true with FG%. Opponents FG% is more of an indicator of success (or lack thereof) than the Grizzlies FG%. Hmmm....

Not 3-Point Shooting?

As it turns out, 3-point percentage and 3-pointers made do not show a significant correlation to point differential. 3-point percentage has a correlation coefficient of only 0.23, which is only 'minor' while 3-pointers made shows a 'moderate' correlation at 0.34. I am surprised by this and thought the correlation would be higher. Here is the scatter plot of 3-pointers made versus point differential.

Why Micheal Conley May Make a Big Difference

We all know that Conley's best skill is his nifty passing. And as it turns out, the one stat that correlates the best to Grizzlies Success is assists. The correlation coefficient is 0.69 and the probability number shows that it is almost impossible that the result is because of random chance. I also correlated assists-to-FG's made (for you HPTMatt) and assists-to-turnovers to point differential. Both had correlation coefficients in the 0.6 range as well, but not quite as high as just plain assists. Here is the scatter plot of assists versus point differential.

Of course the converse is also true, when the other team has a lot of assists, we are more likely to have a bad point differential (-0.64 correlation coefficient).

Conclusions

Scoring in general seems to be the good indicator of success. Assists seem to be the best indicator of success and might mean more than 3-point shooting does, which wasn't initially what I thought would be the result buts makes perfect sense now. Other categories like rebounds and turnovers didn't show that much of a correlation to point differential, however we all know they also contribute to our success or lack thereof.

Scoring Efficiency?

Andrew Perma wrote an interesting column over at RealGM.com examining the top 50 scorers in the NBA by scoring efficiency. It got me wondering how efficient are the Grizzlies players using the same standard of points scored divided by shot attempts.

The results were somewhat surprising. The most efficient player (granted with a very small set of numbers to choose from) was Michael Conley. Remember that these figures aren't taking into account the value of assists either. Strictly viewing the shot attempts and the points Michael is the best scorer on the team averaging 1.4737 points per shot attempts. To put this in perspective, the best three point guards among the top 50 scorers in the league were Steve Nash (1.48), Deron Williams (1.40) and Chris Paul (1.34). Now I don't know if Conley will ever score enough to be in the top 50 of the NBA so don't read too much into that but the optomists can take some joy if they want to.

Following Conley were Stromile Swift (1.4653) and Hakim Warrick (1.4623).

The least efficient scorer is Darko Milicic. He averages just above 1 point per shot attempt. Again this is not an overall evaluation of the player since defensive stats are not included in any respect. This simply states that Darko hasn't been very good at putting the ball in the hoop yet this season. Following Darko were Tarence Kinsey, Brain Cardinal and Casey Jacobsen.

In 9th place in scoring efficiency is Rudy Gay. His 1.271 mark would place him in the middle of the pack of the top 50 scorers in the league. Rudy either needs to get to the foul line more or hit more three point shots. Personally I expect as Rudy begins to get respect from the officials we are going to see him at the line a lot more often as the season progresses.
The team's ranking top to bottom are as follows:

Mike Conley 1.4737
Stromile Swift 1.4636
Hakim Warrick 1.4414
Kyle Lowry 1.4171
Mike Miller 1.3963
Pau Gasol 1.3297
Andre Brown 1.3125
Juan Carlos Navarro 1.2794
Rudy Gay 1.2710
Damon Stoudamire 1.0859
Casey Jacobsen 1.0727
Brian Cardinal 1.0625
Tarence Kinsey 1.0526
Darko Milicic 1.0339

Calculating the team's average gives us a total of 1937 shots and 2503 points or 1.2922 pts per shot attempt.

What makes the team scoring efficiency interesting is in an historical perspective. Last season the Grizzlies were considered a run and gun, no defense team and the scoring efficiency was 1.2920. Nearly identical to this seasons. The 2005-06 season, the era of Fratello and the dead ball syndrome was 1.2340. The team scored less and were less efficient when they did score. One wouldn't expect that outcome. Previous seasons were as follows with the team's win total in parenthesis:

2006-07 (22): 1.2920
2005-06 (49): 1.2340
2004-05 (45): 1.2217
2003-04 (50): 1.1912
2002-03 (28): 1.1857
2001-02 (23): 1.1281

What can we conclude from these numbers. Not much. Maybe this tells us is that scoring efficiently isn't as important as playing defense, rebounding or TOs. I determined opponents scoring efficiency to see if it had a more direct relationship to winning.

2006-07 (22): 1.2946
2005-06 (49): 1.1755
2004-05 (45): 1.2024
2003-04 (50): 1.1802
2002-03 (28): 1.1787
2001-02 (23): 1.1688

Again no clear correlation between a more efficient defense producing more wins. So basically I did all of this work to come to the conclusion that while interesting to talk about scoring efficiency has absolutely no correlation to winning and so it really has little relevance to a discussion of either a team or a players individual contributions.

Postgame Thoughts - Golden St

Well another home game and another loss that could have been very different. It seems that the Grizzlies have trouble keeping thier concentration the whole game in these tough losses. Golden St also simply looked in better shape than the Grizzlies.

The problems were the same as usual for the Grizzlies. Pathetic interior defense and poor rebounding. Golden St scored over 60 pts in the paint tonight. That is over 120 interior points surrendered in the last two games. The Grizzlies won't win a lot of games with that poorous of an interior defense.

Memphis was outrebounded 52 to 35. Darko's early foul trouble started the trouble and it looked like he may have reinjured his ankle as well. Things just don't get better for the Grizzlies frontline on the injury front. Without Gasol or Milicic the Grizzlies simply couldn't compete on the boards or defending in the paint.

The long range shooting showed up but to late to make up the deficit. Going 1-16 from 3 pt land in the first three quarters made a miracle comeback highly unlikely. Still the team didn't drop their heads and give up. This is a good sign for the future. Eventually Memphis will get their big men healthy and with some time together will improve their defense in the middle. It just feels like they will never improve.

Good game for Navarro, Rudy and even Mike Miller who woke up in the fourth to salvage what was otherwise a disappointing game. Mike looked to make the extra pass too often early in the game. He turned down good looks to try and give others better opportunities. While admirable the Grizzlies needed him to be more aggressive. When he started attacking and taking open shots he was very effective.

Damon started strong but faded and Kyle started slow but finished strong. Unfortuantly Kyle got a little too fast down the stretch and made two costly turnovers. Then he took a bog elbow from Baron Davis (who apparently was not going to be fouled out no matter what he did at the end of the game) that nearly knocked him out.

Tough loss but a strong effort tonight. One very bad quarter (the 2nd) pretty much decided the outcome but the team fought hard. Rudy is starting to put together some serious scoring games which has to be a positive.

Grizzlies vs Golden St - 12.17.07

Memphis finally got a couple of clutch shots down the stretch, turned up the defense, made the free throws and won a close game. Believe it or not it was the first time this season that the Grizzlies won a game where the score was within two points with 3 minutes to play that the Grizzlies won. Rudy Gay continued his search for respect around the league with a career high 32 points including 23 in the 2nd half. His combination of size, leaping ability and range makes him potentially one of the most difficult guards in the league once he figures out the game. Class is still in session but he is getting honors grades so far this season. Pau Gasol will miss this game and could be out until after Christmas but a big man with questionable speed and hustle won't be missed as much in this game.

Golden St enters the game searching for their Prozac. If there is a more bi-polar team in the NBA I don't know what it is. Golden St opened the season with 6 consecutive losses. Then the Warriors won 9 of their next 10 games. Since those two streaks the Warriors are 4-4. So they have been hot, cold and in between. Golden St is the best scoring team in the league having topped 100 pts in all but two games but those games came in their last three games heading into Detroit. The Warriors Sunday night game means they will be playing the 2nd game of a back to back series with travel. Energy shouldn't be a problem for this Warriors team however.

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Baron Davis
Baron Davis is playing some of the best basketball of his career in the mayhem that is Don Nelson's offense. He is scoring at the 2nd best clip of his career (22.8 ppg -11th in the league), averaging the 2nd best assists number of his career (8.3 - 6th best in the league) and creating more steals (2nd in the league at 2.52 apg) than at any time in his career. Now Davis just has to avoid the injury bug that has plagued his career. Damon has not been playing well of late and needs to be on his game if he wants to play much in this game.
Advantage: Golden St

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Monta Ellis
Monta Ellis is one of the fastest players in the league. The youngster from Jackson, Ms will have plenty of fans in the stands to keep him motivated as well. Ellis has been showing that last season' breakout year was no fluke averaging 16.1 ppg, 3.4 apg and 1.5 spg. Juan Carlos finally broke out of his shooting funk with 5 three point shots against Orlando on the way to a 27 pt outing. When Navarro is shooting the ball well he is very dangerous all over the court with nifty passes and sneaky defensive plays but when he shot isn't falling Navarro is far less impressive.
Advantage: Golden St

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Stephen Jackson
Stephen Jackson is the captain of the Golden St Warriors. Maybe that explains the erratic behavior exhibited on the court by the Warriors. At one time Stephen Jackson was considered a divisive attitude on a team. Now he is a captain. What he hasn't become is conservative shooting the ball. His averages of 39.9% from the field and 32.4% from the arc aren't exactly representative of a team leader. Mike Miller seems to realize that he has to be a threat for this team to win. He was quoted as telling Rudy Gay that they need to go big if they are going to beat Orlando. I have a news flash Mike, you have to go big for Memphis to beat just about anyone.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Al Harrington
I am going out on a limb with this match. Harrington hasn't been starting regularly but does anyone believe Nellie isn't going to want one of his most experienced players matching up against Rudy Gay? I am not sure why Harrington hasn't been playing more anyway. He is hitting a nice percentage of his shots including 41% from the arc. Harrington is a hard worker who won't allow Rudy to operate with too much freedom. The good news for Rudy is that Harrington isn't a big driver of the ball and he doesn't have tremendous size so Rudy won't be over matched at PF. This is a statement type of game for Rudy. After setting a career high he comes up against a team not known for it's defense and Rudy has the potential to put huge back to back games up.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Andres Biedrins
Darko Milicic isn't in condition to go 40 minutes a night against any team yet and that goes double for a fast paced team like the Warriors. One of the reasons Biedrins is so effective for the Warriors is his ability to run and jump at the pace the Warriors play. His stamina allows him to get to balls while the opposing big men are still catching their breath. Not good for a Grizzlies team who are thin in the middle.
Advantage: Golden St

Benches: Memphis vs Golden St
Golden State has a very active and effective bench. That happens when you have 8 players who have started at least 5 games already this season. Led by Kelanna Azubuike who averages double figures off the bench and Matt Barnes who absolutely torched Memphis last season, the Warriors bench expects to play and produce. The only bad side of the Warriors has been the weak play from their rookies Marco Belinelli and Brandon Wright who have both played very poorly so far. Memphis' bench is finally finding some sort of rotation. Kyle Lowry brings energy off the bench with Hakim providing a point a minute scoring. Stromile started the season strong but has dropped off considerable of late. Casey Jacobsen is getting the extra minutes with Pau out but that may not be the case against a fast team like the Warriors.
Advantage: Golden St

Other Previews/Relevant Blogs:
Golden State of Mind
The City

Links: New Logo, Radio Goodness, In Good Hands, MVP/ROY, Changing of the Guard, Holiday Packs

As you may have noticed, we have a new banner and logo for 3 Shades of Blue. That is thanks to Timothy D., who was the winner of our Ticket Contest Giveaway. He won two lower level Plaza tickets to tonight's game against the Golden State Warriors for his efforts. Congrats Timothy!


I'm sure most of you already know about The Marc Iavaroni Show on Sports 56 WHBQ. Well, if you happen to miss it, they have made it even easier to catch up by installing a flash-based application right on the home page that will allow you to listen to the show without having to download it. Good job guys.

Mike Moreau of Hoopsworld.com posted a column yesterday titled The Grizzlies Are In Good Hands, which details why he feels that Marc Iavaroni is the right coach for this young, talented team.

Anyone who has any concern about Marc Iavaroni's ability to turn the Memphis Grizzlies into winners need only arrive at game 90 minutes prior to tip off. Upon entering the arena, they will see the Grizzlies head coach right in the thick of pre-game drills and shooting, working with players on their individual games.
This is a task normally reserved for assistant coaches, who run the players through offensive move progressions and put them through a series of individual drills or position-oriented drill sequences. But here was the Memphis Grizzlies head coach working with his players - after a loss the previous night and in the midst of a six game losing streak.
That extra work and attention paid off Saturday night, as the Grizzlies beat the Magic in Orlando.

Looks like some of the knee-jerk reactionaries who have been recently suggesting that we try and see if Larry Brown is available should just cool their jets for the time being.

The 2nd Edition of our Blogger MVP/ROY Rankings is up now on Clips Nation, so be sure to check that out as we submit them every two weeks throughout the season. There is at least one Memphis player represented in the rankings.

Marlon Morgan (Commercial Appeal) had an interesting post over on The Memphis Edge this weekend titled Changing of the guard. It seems that Morgan feels the same way that many Grizzlies fans do in regard to the emergence of Rudy Gay as the new face of the franchise.

Through the first two months of the season, Gay not only has made dramatic strides over last season with his on the court play, but he continues to become more of a leader. By the end of the season, look for him to be the unquestioned leader of this team. That’s not to de-emphasize Gasol’s importance to the Grizzlies. But Gay is not far off from being the superstar former team president Jerry West envisioned when he traded Shane Battier for his draft rights.

Perhaps fans can look at what Rudy is becoming, rather than focusing on what other players will never be.

What a deal! Over on Grizzlies.com, you can see the latest ticket promotion, which is 5 Days, 5 Deals on 5-Game Holiday Packs. You can meet Michael Conley (12/17), get a free hat (12/18), receive $10 in Grizz Bucks (12/19), take 50% off Club Level Holiday Packs (12/20) and receive a free pair of tickets (12/21). The Memphis Grizzlies are doing everything in their power to draw more fans out through the busy holiday season, so go over there to the site, check out the details, buy some tickets and support the home team.

Post Game Thoughts - Orlando

Chipc3's Impressions:

While everyone was out celebrating the season, bemoaning the state of the franchise or both, the team went down to Orlando (with the real SOB who outbid me for the fan's fantasy trips) and took it on the chin from Dwight Howard but still stood toe to toe with the Magic and ended up being the last team standing.

Rudy Gay is not too bad for those that didn't realize it yet. A career high 32 points that included a few highlight dunks, some serious post up moves (including one where he jumped up facing the Grizzlies bench and after reaching the top of his jump calmly turned in midair and drained the jump shot) and a big 3 pt shot in the final four minutes. He was simply unstoppable.

Mike Miller was Mike Miller. Big early offensively and then disappearing late but he made a huge defensive stop on Dwight Howard late, doubling down and blocking the shot plus getting the rebound. That play really turned the tide of the game.

Juan Carlos Navarro refound his shot and made two huge three point shots in the final minutes to put the team ahead and then made all of the free throws down the stretch to put the game away. Great game by the player known as 'Instant Grits' on the team.

And I haven't mentioned the player of the game yet! Andre Brown. Yes Andre Brown. The player I said was on the team because he understood he wasn't going to play and was still happy about his role. The man who I once wrote "if Andre is in the game in the 4th quarter then the Grizz have already lost" was a major force preventing Dwight Howard from getting 50 pts and 40 boards. His hustle and defense was huge and with Darko and Swift battling foul trouble the whole game he simply refused to allow the team to lose. I don't know if there is room on his body for another tattoo but he should try and find a place to put today's date. He was that important.

Damon and Kyle was good tonight. Not great but good is a huge improvement over the play of our point guards lately. Maybe it is Michael Conley's presence in practice that has them improving their play or maybe it was Jameer Nelson's lack of size but they both scored in double figures and only had two turnovers between them.

But how did the Grizz win the game when Howard was so dominant, Hedo Turkoglu was scoring well both on the perimeter and in the paint and Jameer Nelson went for 18 and 8 assists? The team won because they hit their shots. After going 11 minutes without hitting a shot against the Clippers the night before Memphis shot 52.9% from the field, made 12 three pt shots and scored 68 second half points. Yes that is nearly as much as they scored in the entire game against Atlanta just a week ago.

Now Memphis comes home for 6 of the next 7 games. Sure the competition will be tough but the team has something positive to come home with and it is the holiday season. Maybe they can ask for contagious confidence for an early Christmas present.

More Postgame:
Third Quarter Collapse
Orlando Sentinel: Darko's Confidence Runs Low

Ticket Giveaway Contest

Ticket Giveaway Contest

Want 2 Plaza-level tickets to the Grizzlies home game against the Golden State Warriors on Monday, December 17? Well, if you're a graphic designer, you might be in luck.

We're looking for some help in developing a logo (220 x 200 pixel) and a banner (728 x 90 pixel) for 3 Shades of Blue. If you think your work is good enough to represent us, then email it to us at three_shades_ofblue[at]hotmail.com. We will take entries from now until Sunday night at 9:00 PM and will determine the winner Monday morning and email the tickets to the victor. Good luck to everyone.

Grizzlies at Orlando 12.15.07

Memphis takes to the road for the first time since the blowout in Atlanta and like that game it is the backside of a back to back. Fatique will play a part in this game but shouldn't be too big a problem with the days off this week the team has had. Memphis is in a critical period right now a 5 game losing streak heading into the Clippers game and a tough schedule ahead with Golden St and San Antonio coming to town before a rematch at Detroit. This is not a game the Grizzlies can afford to get blown out in. Rudy Gay has continued to lead the team in scoring while Gasol is back to being a double-double threat every night but the sudden lack of production from the starting backcourt has raised some thoughts about possibly moving both Damon and Mike to improve in this area.

Orlando has a three game losing streak heading into Friday's game at Charlotte. The slide has been precipitated by a drop in shooting including a 33.8% shooting game against Milwaukee. Orlando needs to find the range to be effective as they are basically playing without a true PF. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis prefer playing on the perimeter which allows Howard to work in the lane unobstructed but if Orlando isn't hitting the outside shots team can double up Howard. If the Magic win the game it will likely be because Gasol couldn't handle Howard down low or Lewis on the perimeter. The Magic's style of play doesn't lend itself well to Gasol's defensive play. Another thing to consider, Coach Stan Van Gundy said that if the Magic starters don't improve their play the lineup could be shaken up.

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Jameer Nelson
Jameer Nelson is not a deep threat but on the Magic that isn't an issue. Nelson's speed allows him to get into the lane and cause trouble for teams and that is what Stan Van Gundy wants from his point guard. Damon will need to stay in front of Nelson and keep him out of the lane dishing to Howard around the basket or Lewis, Hedo and Bogans on the perimeter. Damon isn't very good at preventing taller PG's from shooting over him but taht shouldn't be an issue against 6-0 Nelson. The lateral quickness could be an issue for Damon however.
Advantage: Orlando

Shoooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Keith BogansKeith Bogans is a defense first SG who understands his job is to cover for Lewis and Hedo defensively while hitting the open three when it presents itself. Bogans is good at that hitting 37% of his three point attempts on the season. Miller disappeared against Atlanta and, while rebounding nicely against Detroit, failed to score a basket until the final horn sounded. Miller is the Grizzlies best long range shooter and he has to take more than one long shot in a game. With Bogans not being a serious scoring threat this leaves Miller to focus on his game.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Hedo Turkoglu
Rudy is faciing a totally different player in this game than he faced the night before and Corey Maggette. Hedo appears to love to sit on the three point line and pop up bombs rather than slashing to the paint in an attempt to draw a foul. While he does run the pick and roll well with Howard and has noce ball control skills Hedo has taken 26 more three pt shots than free throws this season. He isn't exactly aggressive with the ball. Hedo's level of play has slowed down after a fast start. In December Hedo is averaging only 16.4 ppg on 38.8 FG% and a 30% 3 pt%. His rebounds however have picked up t0 7.6 rpg. Rudy's performance has reached a new level this month. He is averaging 22.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 2.7 apg in December. Also Rudy is averaging 1.3 spg and 1.2 bpg.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Rashard Lewis
An interesting match up between two max contract players that aren't the best players on their teams. Gasol is in the process of passing the leadership torch to Rudy Gay but Lewis has never been a lead player on an NBA team. Gasol has recovered from an injury plagued opening month where he seemed lost in the new system to average 17.8 ppg and 9.8 rpg in December. Not bad considering he is no longer the #1 offensive option. Rashard Lewis has picked his game in December as well although not as dramatically. Lewis may be the worst rebounding PF in the league at only 5.1 rpg a game. The problem for Gasol will be covering Lewis on the perimeter where he feels most comfortable. Lewis has yet to have a 30 pt game with Orlando but if he is hot and Gasol doesn't guard the perimeter it could happen in this game.
Advantage: Orlando

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Dwight Howard
Darko has had a bad thumb, a bad ankle and this summer a bad attitude but he better put all of that behind him in this battle. Dwight Howard is making a strong case for league MVP and has already been annointed Shaq's replacement as most dominant big man in the game. If anyone in the league should know his game it is Darko who played with Howard the last two seasons. In fact maybe Darko should keep that summer chip on his shoulder in this game as the Magic could easily have resigned Darko if not for their desire to overpay Rashard Lewis. Now is Darko's chance to show the Magic how big a mistake they made by not keeping him. It isn't going to be an easy task with Howard averaging 23 ppg and 15 boards. Perhaps just keeping him at his season average will be enough. The most important thing for Darko is to keep Howard off the offensive glass. Let someone else grab the board but Darko's got to keep Howard off the glass.
Advantage: Orlando

Benches: Memphis vs Orlando
All five of Orlando's starters score in double figures. None of their bench players come close. The best player off the bench right now may be Maurice Evans, a player the Magic acquired for Trevor Ariza earlier this season. Combo guard Keyon Dooling has provided sporadic periods of good play but is inconsistent. Carlos Arroyo confused people in Orlando just like he did in Detroit. He is one of the first off the bench and can run the offense but he is not shooting well this season. The biggest problem for Orlando is the absolute lack of frontcourt support. Brian Cook can hit the three but does little else. Adonal Foyle is barely adequate and Pat Garrity is worse than that. Memphis' bench has two 10 ppg scores in Lowry and Navarro and two front court players capable of exploding in Stromile Swift and Hakim Warrick.
Advantage: Memphis

Other Pre-game sites/Relevant Commentary:
Special thanks to Third Quarter Collapse for their insightful commentary about the Magic. They have an excellent site that I highly recommend.
Believing in Magic

Clippers Postgame

From Zack

I'm depressed after coming home from the FedEx Forum with another loss and will try to make this quick.

-- 6th loss in a row and no end in sight.
-- We are not any better than last year really.
-- Kaman owned Darko. Kaman owned the whole Griz team actually. If he doesn't make the All-star team this year, it will be a tragedy.
-- Everyone of our players, all of them, played bad tonight.
-- I like Hak's 1st half, but foul trouble ruined the 2nd half. One observation was in the 2nd Thornton was able to blow by Hak for some huge 2nd half buckets. Thornton's first step is pretty quick, though.
-- Rudy playing PF is a recipe for foul trouble.
-- I like Miller's assertiveness tonight, but the trade off between him shooting more is him handling the rock more and that means lots of bad passes (the jump pass especially). Those 2 4 point plays were cool, I guess.
-- Navarro was not right on offense for the most part. He was abysmal with his ball handling and passing. He fought hard on defense.
-- Damon and Kyle both sucked. Kyle has been regressing lately and I think that dreaded rookie wall (at around 30 games played, right?) that Chip preached last year with Rudy is starting to set in with him too. Other teams are also game planning him better and him and the coaching staff have not adjusted. All in all, our PG's are letting us down.
-- The decision to have our bigs handle the ball so much on the elbows is backfiring. It might work if we had Boris Diaw circa 2005.
-- Our team passing is just pathetic. Not just this game, but for a while. PG's are leading the pack, but whole team is passing bad. Bigs, guards, forwards, everyone.
-- God I hope Micheal Conley is the Hall of Fame, Steve Nash type passing savior he is being billed as by many fans (though i expect the high expectations for his playmaking and passing ability as a NBA rookie are slightly a function of displeasure in our current PG play and not a true reflection of his current ability)
-- Seeing Kaman be the 2nd coming of Wilt, Dwight Howard absolutely scares me to death.

Chipc3's Obvservations:
Good thing a lot of people were at holiday parties instead of this game. The crowd was fitting for the way the team played. For once the team got just what they deserved.

11 turnovers. Not in the game, not in the half but in the 1st quarter! Talk about throwing away the game early. After three days off and 5 days with only 1 game there is no excuse for that. I suppose after the first quarter only having 25 turnovers in the game should be considered an accomplishment.

If anyone wanted to know why the team needs Gasol then just look what happened after Darko started to get tired. Stro took the night off, Hakim focused on scoring early and fouling late and Andre Brown was all Iavaroni was left with. At least Brown seemed like he wanted to play hard on both sides of the court.

Rudy has to learn how to defend slashing players. Rudy got into foul trouble early and stayed there all game. In his defense one call was particularly terrible when he was fighting to get to a lose ball and the refs call him for his fourth foul. At that point of the game the refs seemed intent on being the focus of the game. Warrick got a similiar call for his fourth moments later. It was terrible.

The point guards play has been covered but I will make a short comment to put in perspective. Dan Dickau was the best point guard in the game.

Tarence Kinsey played but didn't look like the player I remember from last season. Navarro played but didn't look like the player I remembered from November. Stromile played and looked just like the player we have seen almost every year in Memphis.

Coach Iavaroni can't escape some second guessing either. When you are down ten points with 5 minutes to play perhaps it would make sense to have some players in the game that can hit a three point shot. Damon, Miller and Navarro have the best 3 pt shooting percentages and only Miller was on the court until the very end of the game. Damon never did play in the 4th. If Lowry isn't going to control the ball at the point and isn't stopping Dan Dickau perhaps Damon and Navarro should get a chance to shoot us back into the game. You know, even Brian Cardinal can hit the three and he will give defensive effort too. Just a thought.

I really expected the team to come out with a strong effort last night. I was very disappointed. Perhaps it was the shock of losing Gasol yesterday and seeing him on crutches tonight but it really was bad against a team ready to lose. We should be ashamed.

Memphis vs LA Clippers 12.13.07

Memphis is struggling with a front office 'retirement', Darko's injured leg, and a 5 game losing streak. Only the 5 game losing streak really matters to most Grizz fans since everything else is just symptomatic of the losing streak and the overall poor record of the team. Outside of the first loss at home to Portland Memphis can be excused for every loss in this streak. Houston is a tough team at home, the New Orleans game could have gone either way, the Atlanta game was the 3rd road game in four days and Detroit is an elite team. This game is different. LA has nearly as bad a record as Memphis and is without their star player, this is a home game after three weeks off and everyone is going to be as rested as possible during an NBA season. The team has had time to work on defensive switches as well so this is about as close to a statement game as the team is going to have.

The Clippers have to view this game as a statement game as well. They are in the midst of a 4 game road trip (if you count a road game against the Lakers that is) and the third game in four days. They began the trip with a win against New Jersey and a loss the next night against Charlotte the next night. They will be fighting to finish with a winning road trip. The Clippers were the popular choice to be the worst team in the Western Conference after a season ending injury to Elton Brand, but Coach Mike Dunleavy wouldn't stand for that and surprised a lot of teams early in the season. However they have struggled of late.

Zack's Corner

Trampled Underfoot. Will Pau play? He hurt his toe in practice and his status currently is uncertain.

UPDATE: Paugasol.com is reporting in spanish that Pau will miss the game and could be out for up to one week.

Dazed and Confused. One thing to pay attention to tonight is the Grizzlies body language. Owning one of the 5 worst records in the NBA and in the midst of a 5 game losing streak (and losing 6 out of 7), one has to wonder how the Grizzlies are handling things mentally. There's no room to dwell on misfortune and feel sorry for ones self in the NBA. Just gotta have a short memory, forget about the last game, and concentrate on the "next" game (or next shot, for you Tiger's fans).

Communication Breakdown. Obviously, a huge key tonight will be if the Griz can play solid team oriented man-to-man defense, something that hasn't been done through the 1st quarter of the season. There is a strong argument to be made that our players just can't play good defense. Though surely there is improvement to be made with our current roster if the players execute what Coach Iavaroni is telling them to do and the players start communicating with each other on the court better. Of course, this isn't breaking news to anyone on the team. Take it away Marc:

"Our communication has to be better. It takes all five guys."

Could you elaborate on what Coach just said, Rudy?

"We have to be more aware of what's going on. On certain possessions people are wide-open. It's just not one person's fault. It's the whole team's fault. We have to do a better job of rotating and it's a team effort."

What Is and What Should Never Be. In the last 2 games, Mike Miller attempted 9 total shots. I think it is frustratingly obvious that our starting shooting guard needs to be able to get more than 9 combined shots up in 2 games.

The Battle of Evermore. The matchup I am most excited to watch tonight is Kaman vs Darko. This season, Kaman is everything we want Darko to be. I hope to see Darko come out with the same intensity he had during the start of the Pistons game and attack Kaman in the post. Early foul trouble for the Clipper center would be a huge Grizzlies advantage.

Matchups by Chip

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Brevin Knight
Adopted son Brevin Knight returns home in this game. BK, a former Grizz who's wife has a business in Memphis where they call home during the off-season, was involved in possibly the funniest play of the day against Charlotte. The diminutive PG was called for charging after colliding with 7-1 ft Primoz Brezac. Brezac had to leave the game for medical attention while 5-10 BK was uninjured. Damon has struggled since his bout with the flu but should be ready for this game. When on top of his game Damon has deadly accuracy from outside and a nice passing game.
Advantage: Clippers

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Quinton Ross
SMU grad Quinton Ross was unable to go against Charlotte with back problems but when healthy he has been the type of perimeter defender Memphis have been crying for. If Ross can't go then 32 yr old Cuttino Mobley will likely start. The 6-4 Mobley has managed to get off his shot for 10 seasons in the NBA so Mike Miller will need to watch the old man. Miller's offense has been sporadic of late from a 26 pt game against New Orleans but only 8 pts in the next two games combined. Miller will need to be aggressive with his shot (and hopefully attempt more than one 3 pt shot like he did against Detroit).
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Corey Maggette
This is the money ball match up of the night. Maggette is a slashing SF who loves contact and getting to the line. Rudy is not known for defending slashers very well and early foul trouble for Rudy could be a bad sign for the Grizzlies. However Rudy hasn't been so foul prone (i.e. the refs are giving him more respect) of late. Maggette is an up and down scorer. Never a great perimeter scorer Maggette's offensive output depends on his ability to get to the hoop or the line. Rudy will need to be conscious of this tendency all game.
Advantage: Clippers

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Tim Thomas
Tim Thomas struggled his first season in LA but when Elton Brand went down with a season ending Achilles injury was thrust into the starting lineup. Thomas has started to improve lately having scored in double figures in 14 of the last 15 games. Thomas poses a tough match up problem for Gasol as he likes to play away from the basket hitting 34% of this 3 pt attempts this season. Gasol has been getting adjusted to the new offensive system under Iavaroni but has not been very good on defense this season. He will have to impose his game on Thomas to make him work on defense to take away his outside shot.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Chris Kaman
Chris Kaman is one of the leading candidates for Comeback Player of the Year. Kaman has nearly doubled his output in scoring (18.4 vs 10.1) and rebounding (13.8 vs 7.8). His rebounding total ranks him 3rd in the league this season. Darko has struggled to remain healthy this season but when healthy he has been very effective. Darko is the only Grizz who can body up with Kaman who is a load at 7-0 and 265 pounds. Hopefully the three days off will help Darko regain his stamina.
Advantage: Clippers

Benches: Memphis vs Los Angeles
LA has to hope that Ross can go in this game because without him the Clippers bench is rather thin. Sam Cassell has been out since Nov. 26th and the next best scorer off the bench is rookie Al Thornton who averages 6.1 ppg. Reuben Patterson and Dan Dickau are the only other contributing bench players for the Clippers. Kyle Lowry has put behind his shooting woes of late to score in double figures in 3 straight games to raise his season scoring average to 10.0 ppg. Juan Carlos Navarro is struggling to get his long range shot to fall of late but is still averaging 10 points off the bench as well. Stromile Swift has struggled returning from his recent illness and may have lost his job as first big off the bench to offensive minded Hakim Warrick.
Advantage: Memphis

Other Pre-game Commentary/Relevant Sites:
Clips Nation
ClipperBlog.com

Got a Predicton? Leave it in the Comments.

What Does It Take To Go On A Winning Streak?

I was pretty low after the loss at home to Portland. Portland wasn't playing well and we had won the previous game in a dominating fashion. How did we lose that game?

Maybe it was just difficult to put two wins together. The team's only done it once this season after all and we had to wait until April last season to win two in a row. Do the Grizzlies just sit on their laurels too much or what?

That got me looking around the league to see what team had the longest winning streak and you know who showed up on the list? Those same Portland Trailblazers that beat Memphis. They won four games in a row after beating Memphis. Those wins included a win at Utah (only their 2nd road win of the season) and last night's win over Golden State (Milwaukee and Miami were the others). They beat both Utah and Golden St without LaMarcus Aldridge who is out with plantar fasciitis (the same injury that supposedly sidelined Pau three seasons ago).

So maybe I shouldn't feel so bad about the loss. The team was within 3/10ths of a second of beating a team that is red hot.

It didn't make me feel any better. The Grizzlies still lost so who cares if the team is red hot or ice cold. A loss is a loss after all.

In researching what has happened to Portland I read this interesting quote from Jarrett Jack" I think it's just a contagious confidence." Contagious Confidence? What the heck is contagious confidence and how do the Grizzlies catch it?

"Confidence is contagious." - Vince Lombardi

Probably by finding someone to hit a game winning shot. That is how Portland accomplished it. Since the last second shot by Travis Outlaw the Trailblazers have started to believe in themselves. Their 2nd yr coach, Nate McMillan said "I really think the whole team is getting a feel of what we want to do.'' So understanding what the coach wants of them, gaining a touch of confidence from hitting a big shot and a team can turn things around in a hurry.

It reminds me of the Chicago Bulls of three years ago. They were 4-16 at one point that season but finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. It took some time for the young players to learn what it was they were supposed to be doing and it took some clutch wins to bolster their confidence.

Think about that today as the Grizzlies prepare for the Clippers. Iavaroni hasn't been here two years and the Grizzlies haven't hit that big shot yet but with plenty of days to practice lately and a team on a long road trip in town this could be just the situation Memphis needs to turn things around.

It just takes a little contagious confidence after all.

Mega-Links: Injury News, Mike Miller and his monkey, TK in a giving mood, Sign the "Kobe Stopper"?, Team Value, Rudy Gay, Hak on the block?

Ron Tillery is reporting on the Memphis Edge that Pau Gasol is questionable for Friday night's game against the Los Angeles Clippers after jamming the big toe on his right foot in practice. That's the bad news. The good news is that Michael Conley has been participating in non-contact drills since Monday and hopes to be cleared for full contact drills by next Tuesday. I would have liked to have known about that a few days ago, but I guess Tillery was busy finding "his stories" in other locations. Oh Ron-Ron...and here we were trying to be nice to you for a change. Don't make me regret that decision.

I was too busy yesterday afternoon to see this post on TrueHoop about Mike Miller and his former pet, a monkey named Sonny. Apparently when Henry Abbott worked for HOOP Magazine, he interviewed Miller and they had a lengthy conversation about Sonny at that time. Well, it got brought up again because of the current issue (January/February 2008) of HOOP Magazine that includes a new interview with #33 in which Sonny's story is revisited. It's unique, it's bizarre, it's a must-read.

Over on CSTV.com is the report that Tarence Kinsey is giving back to his alma mater, the University of South Carolina.

Former Gamecocks basketball player Tarence Kinsey will donate his Memphis Grizzlies game-worn uniform to be auctioned on the official South Carolina Auctions page on GamecocksOnline.com with the proceeds benefiting the Carolina Remembrance Fund.
The uniform includes an autographed jersey, game shorts and autographed shoes.
The university established the Carolina Remembrance Fund in honor and memory of the six Carolina students who died in the Ocean Isle fire Sunday, Oct. 28, 2007.
Proceeds from the fund will honor these students through their sorority, Delta Delta Delta, or fraternity, Sigma Alpha Epsilon.

Nice to see yet another Grizzlies player taking the time to be charitable and help others.

Over on the Grizzlies Message Board, there is an outcry to sign the recently waived Ruben "Kobe Stopper" Patterson to shore up the team's defensive deficiencies and supply a little attitude. Ehh--what could it hurt? If he can crack the rotation ahead of Casey Jacobsen and Brian Cardinal (a daunting task, I know), then give him a shot.

Finally, we have Forbes anual Team Valuation Rankings, in which the Grizzlies come in at #23 with a value of $304 million. I could have sworn that I had posted this already, but a search through the archives didn't turn up anything, so there you go.

Late Updates via the venerable ODK on the Message Boards:

Rudy Gay, A Chat On The Raptors Tonight On The RealGM Hoops Show
Tonight on the RealGM Hoops Show, Brendon, Sacha and Aaron will talk to Memphis Grizzlies forward Rudy Gay about his breakout season. They will also chat with RealGM's Tyler Sherkin about the Toronto Raptors and will be joined by former NBA star Jerome Williams live from the Philippines. Feel free to call the show between 9:00 and 10:00 PM Eastern at 1-888-942-7326.

Hakim Warrick made ESPN's list of the 10 most likely to be traded:
4. Hakim Warrick, Grizzlies

After a five-game stretch in which he played very little, the Grizzlies have been showcasing him to a degree in their past two games as word has circulated around the league that the third-year forward does not fit into the Grizzlies' long-term plans.There are still plenty of teams willing to take a shot on Warrick's upside, which means Memphis can get true value in return.

Website/Blog of the Day: The Blowtorch

Heart, Backbone and Balls

I love the Memphis Grizzlies. I don't think that is a secret but I am getting tired of the timidity of the team. Some people say the team isn't timid but I think I have found a statistic that verifies my opinion.

Memphis is last in the league in Technical Fouls called against them. What's worse is that they are last because they haven't had one called all season (except a worthless call with less than a minute to go against Detroit). Even Utah has had a technical foul called against them and they play in the shadow of the Mormon Tabernacle for Christ's sake.

The teams that have received the most technical fouls all have winning records. Is that surprising? These teams stand up to the refs when a bad call is made. They won't stand by and allow the refs to dictate action without calling them out.

Everyone can guess that Detroit leads the league in technical fouls called. What you may not know is who leads Detroit in technical fouls (hint: it isn't who you think). Indiana, Dallas and New Orleans are the next three teams on the list for most T's this season. These teams are not known for physical play.

Last season Memphis was 26th in the league in technical fouls. The teams below them were Boston (2nd worst record in the league), Atlanta (3rd worst), Philadelphia (6th) and Toronto (actually made the playoffs.

Do you notice a trend here?

I understand the attitude of keeping control of your emotions. I understand the attitude of not getting the refs upset against us. These are valid excuses. However, technical fouls usually gets the home crowd fired up. It shows the fans and the team that you are passionate about the game. And if the refs are already calling fouls against us who cares if they are doing it with dispassionate, objective opinions or just pissed off? The calls aren't going in our direction either way.

The last two years I criticized Fratello for being too passive on the bench. So far I have seen Iavaroni having a similar dispassionate demeanor on the bench. Coaches need to complain to the refs about bad calls. Players need to show they care enough to occasionally get a technical call. Let us see that you really want to win.

I know it has been debated that picking up technical fouls doesn't have any effect but I don't believe it. Technical fouls mean someone is losing their composure. That they are emotionally involved at such a high level that they can't maintain their composure. I like seeing that occasionally on my team. Far better to see a player lose control once and a while than see the team passively accepting defeat after defeat.

Show some heart. Show some backbone. Show some balls. Show the fans in Memphis that this is more than just a job. Show us you are emotionally involved to the point that things not working out makes you upset.

Maybe a little excitement directed at the refs will translate into excitement coming from the stands.

By the way, feel free to put your predictions on who has the most technical fouls on Detroit's team in the comments section.