Memphis vs Orlando - 1.23.08

Memphis has won two consecutive home games by double digits. Sure the opponents weren't leading their divisions but the playoff teams that the Grizzlies have played lately didn't actually have fun in the games either. Cleveland in OT, Lakers by one referee...I mean point, Golden St having to fight right down to the wire shows me that the players are learning what Iavaroni wants them to do, Iavaroni is learning what the players can do and that everyone seems to be on the same page. There have been some stumbles along the way but Memphis is growing as a team and the next two games should be a good time to see how far they still have to go. This is the 2nd and last matchup for Darko Milicic against the team that let him go and Memphis will need his defense in this game.

Orlando surprised Detroit with a home win on Monday which should give the Magic some motivation heading into Memphis. The Magic have probably not forgotten how the Grizz treated them in their house earlier in the season either. Orlando is doing something very rare these days with 5 players averaging double figures. Led by Slam Dunk contestant Dwight Howard at 22.1 ppg and a league leading 15.2 rpg, Orlando has managed to survive in the East despite not having a true PF on the roster. Hedo Turkoglu (18.7 ppg) and Rashard Lewis (18.6 ppg) are both 6-10 but also more small forwards than power forwards. Orlando is an amazing 16-9 on the road so the Grizzlies had better come prepared to play.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Carlos Arroyo
Orlando didn't see Mike Conley when the teams played the first game as he was recuperating from his shoulder injury. Now Conley is not only healthy but starting and leading the team. Conley has averaged 10.4 ppg and 5.4 apg in 2008 and that isn't including his 10 pt, 10 assist game Monday. Most importantly Conley is hitting at a high enough percent from the arc (33.3%) to make opponents at least be aware of him out there. That makes his passing and driving ability that much more effective. Arroyo has replaced the injured Jameer Nelson in the starting lineup and played well in that role. His 11.7 ppg as a starter on 57.1% shooting attests to that. He isn't the distributor that Nelson is but his size allows him to be more physical on defense. That attitude has gotten him in foul trouble on occasion however.
Advantage: Orlando

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Maurice Evans
Maurice Evans came to Orlando in a mid-season trade with the Lakers and has worked himself into the starting lineup for the Magic. As a starter Evans is averaging 11.6 ppg but not scoring very efficiently from outside (31.6%) but he has hit nearly 50% of his field goal attempts. His ability to get to the hoop allows the team's sharpshooters more space on their attempts. Evans is an erratic player who is very good when hot but not so good when cold. Miller has been hot a lot lately but will need to make sure that he keeps Evans cold. Something Miller and the team have struggled with at the SG position all season. Miller's stepped up his game a lot lately and his size and rebounding skills should prove to be the difference in this matchup.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Rashard Lewis
Rudy Gay has retaken the team scoring lead after his 24 pt outing against Chicago. Rudy should also be motivated by his selection for the All-Star Slam Dunk contest but Rashard Lewis has been an All-Star game selection at at 6-10 has the size to compete against Rudy. Rudy has been playing some of his best defense of late and with Rashard not known as a slashing type player will need to make sure he doesn't pick up silly fouls in this matchup. Lewis has been playing well this season but not as well as he is being paid after signing a huge free agent contract this summer. His play has picked up lately however including hitting over 40% of his three pt attempts. Lewis missed the first game against the Grizzlies and his presence makes this a very important matchup for the Grizzlies.
Advantage: Orlando

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Hedo Turkoglu
Another interesting match in this game is at PF. Gasol has been playing much better this month as he recovers from numerous injuries and gets comfortable with the new offense. Orlando will struggle to find a player outside of Dwight Howard who can stop a motivated Gasol. Likewise Pau will struggle to stay with Hedo on the perimeter. Turkoglu is extremely comfortable shooting on the perimeter but has a quick enough first step to get to the lane and exploit a slower footed big man rushing out to contest a jump shot. The deciding factor may be who is more aggressive on the offensive end. Don't be surprised to see Gasol moved to center and the Memphis small ball lineup see considerable time if Hedo starts lighting up the scoreboard. Orlando may also try to use Hedo at center on defense against Darko allowing Howard to compete with the less physical Gasol if Pau starts hot.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Dwight Howard
Dwight Howard, who also is invited to the Slam Dunk Contest, did what almost every team best player has done against Memphis this season. He had a near career night when he went for 31 pts on 10-11 shooting and grabbed 20 rebounds. Not surprisingly the only team that he has performed better against this season is Phoenix where Iavaroni used to coach. Containing Howard has to be the single most important facet of the game. Darko has to stay in the game to do that. In the first match Darko was hampered with foul trouble ending up with 5 fouls in only 16 minutes. It is difficult to see Memphis coming out on top again if Darko can't remain in the game. Milicic has struggled this season offensively and has lost time to the bench when the Grizzlies go small but Gasol can't contain Howard on the glass. Darko will have to keep his emotions in check. If Milicic can hold Howard to a more normal night then Memphis has a chance. If not it will be tough.
Advantage: Orlando

Benches: Memphis vs Orlando
Memphis' bench has dramatically improved their play of late. Juan Carlos Navarro has found his shooting touch and is deadly when hot. Hakim Warrick has played better defensively and his shot has always been a strength. Kyle Lowry still struggles with his shot but has been making more intelligent decisions on the court. Even Stromile Swift has seen some minutes and been productive. Orlando's bench is not as strong. With Nelson out, Keyon Dooling becomes the backup PG and at 6-4 his size is difficult to match up against. Former starter Keith Bogans has been playing more minutes lately and producing as well. Where Orlando struggles is when their bigs have to rest. Brian Cook and Adonal Foyle have not been able to contribute at all forcing Orlando to go very small with JJ Redick as the only other contributor off the bench. If Memphis can get the frontline tired or in foul trouble Memphis has a real opportunity to sweep the series.
Advantage: Memphis

Relevant Links/Other Blogs:
Third Quarter Collapse (An Orlando Blog not Grizzlies)
Believing in Magic
Grizzlies Home Page Preview

Post Game Thoughts - Orlando

Chipc3's Impressions:

While everyone was out celebrating the season, bemoaning the state of the franchise or both, the team went down to Orlando (with the real SOB who outbid me for the fan's fantasy trips) and took it on the chin from Dwight Howard but still stood toe to toe with the Magic and ended up being the last team standing.

Rudy Gay is not too bad for those that didn't realize it yet. A career high 32 points that included a few highlight dunks, some serious post up moves (including one where he jumped up facing the Grizzlies bench and after reaching the top of his jump calmly turned in midair and drained the jump shot) and a big 3 pt shot in the final four minutes. He was simply unstoppable.

Mike Miller was Mike Miller. Big early offensively and then disappearing late but he made a huge defensive stop on Dwight Howard late, doubling down and blocking the shot plus getting the rebound. That play really turned the tide of the game.

Juan Carlos Navarro refound his shot and made two huge three point shots in the final minutes to put the team ahead and then made all of the free throws down the stretch to put the game away. Great game by the player known as 'Instant Grits' on the team.

And I haven't mentioned the player of the game yet! Andre Brown. Yes Andre Brown. The player I said was on the team because he understood he wasn't going to play and was still happy about his role. The man who I once wrote "if Andre is in the game in the 4th quarter then the Grizz have already lost" was a major force preventing Dwight Howard from getting 50 pts and 40 boards. His hustle and defense was huge and with Darko and Swift battling foul trouble the whole game he simply refused to allow the team to lose. I don't know if there is room on his body for another tattoo but he should try and find a place to put today's date. He was that important.

Damon and Kyle was good tonight. Not great but good is a huge improvement over the play of our point guards lately. Maybe it is Michael Conley's presence in practice that has them improving their play or maybe it was Jameer Nelson's lack of size but they both scored in double figures and only had two turnovers between them.

But how did the Grizz win the game when Howard was so dominant, Hedo Turkoglu was scoring well both on the perimeter and in the paint and Jameer Nelson went for 18 and 8 assists? The team won because they hit their shots. After going 11 minutes without hitting a shot against the Clippers the night before Memphis shot 52.9% from the field, made 12 three pt shots and scored 68 second half points. Yes that is nearly as much as they scored in the entire game against Atlanta just a week ago.

Now Memphis comes home for 6 of the next 7 games. Sure the competition will be tough but the team has something positive to come home with and it is the holiday season. Maybe they can ask for contagious confidence for an early Christmas present.

More Postgame:
Third Quarter Collapse
Orlando Sentinel: Darko's Confidence Runs Low

Grizzlies at Orlando 12.15.07

Memphis takes to the road for the first time since the blowout in Atlanta and like that game it is the backside of a back to back. Fatique will play a part in this game but shouldn't be too big a problem with the days off this week the team has had. Memphis is in a critical period right now a 5 game losing streak heading into the Clippers game and a tough schedule ahead with Golden St and San Antonio coming to town before a rematch at Detroit. This is not a game the Grizzlies can afford to get blown out in. Rudy Gay has continued to lead the team in scoring while Gasol is back to being a double-double threat every night but the sudden lack of production from the starting backcourt has raised some thoughts about possibly moving both Damon and Mike to improve in this area.

Orlando has a three game losing streak heading into Friday's game at Charlotte. The slide has been precipitated by a drop in shooting including a 33.8% shooting game against Milwaukee. Orlando needs to find the range to be effective as they are basically playing without a true PF. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis prefer playing on the perimeter which allows Howard to work in the lane unobstructed but if Orlando isn't hitting the outside shots team can double up Howard. If the Magic win the game it will likely be because Gasol couldn't handle Howard down low or Lewis on the perimeter. The Magic's style of play doesn't lend itself well to Gasol's defensive play. Another thing to consider, Coach Stan Van Gundy said that if the Magic starters don't improve their play the lineup could be shaken up.

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Jameer Nelson
Jameer Nelson is not a deep threat but on the Magic that isn't an issue. Nelson's speed allows him to get into the lane and cause trouble for teams and that is what Stan Van Gundy wants from his point guard. Damon will need to stay in front of Nelson and keep him out of the lane dishing to Howard around the basket or Lewis, Hedo and Bogans on the perimeter. Damon isn't very good at preventing taller PG's from shooting over him but taht shouldn't be an issue against 6-0 Nelson. The lateral quickness could be an issue for Damon however.
Advantage: Orlando

Shoooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Keith BogansKeith Bogans is a defense first SG who understands his job is to cover for Lewis and Hedo defensively while hitting the open three when it presents itself. Bogans is good at that hitting 37% of his three point attempts on the season. Miller disappeared against Atlanta and, while rebounding nicely against Detroit, failed to score a basket until the final horn sounded. Miller is the Grizzlies best long range shooter and he has to take more than one long shot in a game. With Bogans not being a serious scoring threat this leaves Miller to focus on his game.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Hedo Turkoglu
Rudy is faciing a totally different player in this game than he faced the night before and Corey Maggette. Hedo appears to love to sit on the three point line and pop up bombs rather than slashing to the paint in an attempt to draw a foul. While he does run the pick and roll well with Howard and has noce ball control skills Hedo has taken 26 more three pt shots than free throws this season. He isn't exactly aggressive with the ball. Hedo's level of play has slowed down after a fast start. In December Hedo is averaging only 16.4 ppg on 38.8 FG% and a 30% 3 pt%. His rebounds however have picked up t0 7.6 rpg. Rudy's performance has reached a new level this month. He is averaging 22.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 2.7 apg in December. Also Rudy is averaging 1.3 spg and 1.2 bpg.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Rashard Lewis
An interesting match up between two max contract players that aren't the best players on their teams. Gasol is in the process of passing the leadership torch to Rudy Gay but Lewis has never been a lead player on an NBA team. Gasol has recovered from an injury plagued opening month where he seemed lost in the new system to average 17.8 ppg and 9.8 rpg in December. Not bad considering he is no longer the #1 offensive option. Rashard Lewis has picked his game in December as well although not as dramatically. Lewis may be the worst rebounding PF in the league at only 5.1 rpg a game. The problem for Gasol will be covering Lewis on the perimeter where he feels most comfortable. Lewis has yet to have a 30 pt game with Orlando but if he is hot and Gasol doesn't guard the perimeter it could happen in this game.
Advantage: Orlando

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Dwight Howard
Darko has had a bad thumb, a bad ankle and this summer a bad attitude but he better put all of that behind him in this battle. Dwight Howard is making a strong case for league MVP and has already been annointed Shaq's replacement as most dominant big man in the game. If anyone in the league should know his game it is Darko who played with Howard the last two seasons. In fact maybe Darko should keep that summer chip on his shoulder in this game as the Magic could easily have resigned Darko if not for their desire to overpay Rashard Lewis. Now is Darko's chance to show the Magic how big a mistake they made by not keeping him. It isn't going to be an easy task with Howard averaging 23 ppg and 15 boards. Perhaps just keeping him at his season average will be enough. The most important thing for Darko is to keep Howard off the offensive glass. Let someone else grab the board but Darko's got to keep Howard off the glass.
Advantage: Orlando

Benches: Memphis vs Orlando
All five of Orlando's starters score in double figures. None of their bench players come close. The best player off the bench right now may be Maurice Evans, a player the Magic acquired for Trevor Ariza earlier this season. Combo guard Keyon Dooling has provided sporadic periods of good play but is inconsistent. Carlos Arroyo confused people in Orlando just like he did in Detroit. He is one of the first off the bench and can run the offense but he is not shooting well this season. The biggest problem for Orlando is the absolute lack of frontcourt support. Brian Cook can hit the three but does little else. Adonal Foyle is barely adequate and Pat Garrity is worse than that. Memphis' bench has two 10 ppg scores in Lowry and Navarro and two front court players capable of exploding in Stromile Swift and Hakim Warrick.
Advantage: Memphis

Other Pre-game sites/Relevant Commentary:
Special thanks to Third Quarter Collapse for their insightful commentary about the Magic. They have an excellent site that I highly recommend.
Believing in Magic