Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Power Rankings 12.05.07

Power Rankings from 3 & 4 December, 2007
PUT MOUSEOVER GRIZZLIES LOGO TO SEE COMMENTS (worksbest with MS IE)

Yahoo has no update yet for this week. They are inconsistent when they update, so
I would like suggestions for a ranking to replace Yahoo. Tell me with a comment.

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--CarlCR

Darko is Going to Play? Darko is Going to Play!

Darko Milicic suffered what appeared to be a serious injury on Monday night against the Blazers. Immediately after Darko fell to floor, the crowd gasped and muttered to themselves, hoping that it wasn't as bad as it looked. He had trouble putting weight on the foot and had to be pushed to the locker room in a wheel chair. Without any official reports, most, including those of us here at 3SoB, assumed he would be out for a number of weeks with a severe ankle sprain.

But amazingly, that is not the case.



As reported in todays Commercial Appeal, Darko is going to try to play. From downtown to East Memphis to the suburbs, you can hear the surprise now.

"Darko is going to play? Darko is going to play!"

I am as surprised as everyone else. Here are Darko's words:

"That's how some ankles work," Milicic said. "It's really not that bad. I'll try it (today) in shootaround. But I'm sure I'll play."

Wow! Great news for Darko. It seems that Darko doesn't want to be known as a player that is always injured.

"That's why I'm trying to come back (today)," Milicic said.

One thing that I have latched onto pretty quickly with Darko is that he has some serious fight in him. Iavaroni echos that.

"He wants to play and he wants to help us win," Iavaroni said. "He feels you can't do that sitting on the bench."

Rudy Gay was also heard today on the radio saying that Darko will play. We need Darko tonight to man up to Yao.

The question now becomes, how much will Darko play and how effective will he be? Of course, if we could get PA Announcer Rick Trotter to play the part of the "stuck in the 70's MC" from Karate Kid and echo the words that are the title of this post, then I'm sure he'd go out and kick butt.

Grizzlies at Houston - 12.5.07

No local coverage of tonights game. NBA League Pass will be covering it however.

Memphis faces the hardest part of their schedule down the 'Dark One' and their future point guard, having a pathetic 0-5 record in games decided by 3 points or less and with rumors swirling of discontent between Pau Gasol and Marc Iavaroni. All this after losing to a Portland team that the Grizzlies had down 7 points with 10 minutes to play and who had played the night before in San Antonio. Rudy Gay and Mike Miller played hard with a combined 60 pts and 15 rebounds between them. The injury to Darko meant Gasol (14 pts and 15 rebounds), Miller and Gay each played over 40 minutes in the game. Kyle Lowry seems to be struggling as you would expect a young PG in the league to do on some nights. A return to his early season excellence would be appreciated.

Houston hasn't had to play a game since Sacramento on Saturday night but that game ended a disappointing road trip where Houston dropped their last two games to head home 9-9 on the season. Not exactly the record most Houston people expected from this big name loaded roster. With no less than 7 players who have been stars on this or other teams, Houston is not happy to be a .500 ball club right now. With a three game east coast road trip followed by home games against Dallas, Orlando and Detroit looming after this Houston needs a win in this game.

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Rafer Alston
If Damon continues to play in December the way he finished the month of November then the Grizzlies may not be looking to trade him after all. In his last 10 games Damon is averaging 7.9 ppg, 4.8 apg and hitting over 40% of his three point attempts. Not bad production for someone averaging only 20.3 mpg. Compare that to Alston who averages 8.2 ppg, 4.8 apg and only hits 26.9% of his three point attempts despite playing 29.4 mpg. Neither player is rock solid as a starter but Damon's play has been superior of late.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Tracy McGrady

If there is a bigger mismatch on paper in this game I don't know what it is. Tracy McGrady is a scoring machine who scored 41 points on 16-28 shooting against the Grizzlies in their first game. He basically did what he wanted the entire game. Memphis simply doesn't have an answer for a motivated McGrady. Miller is a good player. He shoots well from everywhere on the court, he rebounds better than any guard not named Jason Kidd and he can pass well for a 6-8 guard. However, when crunch time rolls around you know in your heart that Tracy will own Mike.
Advantage: Houston

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Shane Battier

I don't believe this is Shane Battier Poster night in Houston but it would sure be nice to see Rudy put a poster highlight dunk down in this game. Shane Battier has the size and strength to contain Rudy and that isn't good for Memphis. The Grizzlies need Rudy's all-court offensive game especially on the road where Rudy's production doesn't usually drop. Rudy has scored exactly the same amount of points on the road as he has at home through 16 games and that is including the disappointing East Coast trip where Rudy struggled so bad. Shane isn't a slasher and Darko is back. Both of these factors seem to favor Rudy who struggles against slashing offensive players and in games Darko doesn't play. Shane was able to contain Rudy in Memphis however and is playing in front of his real home crowd.
Advantage: Houston

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Chucky Hayes

Sam Smith says the story on the streets is that Pau Gasol is available. Nothing new there since Sam Smith has wanted Gasol in Chicago for the last two years. So far nothing has been done and I don't expect anything will be done any time soon. Gasol is playing the way the coaches want him to play, he has his best friend on the team and the Grizzlies are starting to win. Not a great recipe for a trade in my opinion. Chucky Hayes is severely outmatched in this battle. He doesn't have the height nor the physicality to deter Gasol from doing pretty much as he pleases. Gasol scored 26 pts in the first game and a similiar result should be expected in this one.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Yao Ming

This titanic battle dictated the final result in the first meeting between these teams. The Dark One went toe-to-toe with the Great Wall of China and in the end the result was a draw, which was a big win for the Grizzlies. Yao did have some damage scoring 22 pts but only grabbed 7 boards while Darko went for 20 pts and 6 boards. Get a similiar result in the rematch and consider the Grizzlies lucky. Darko has shown the ability to defend just about any big in the game right now and at least be respectable. Ask Al Jefferson and Tim Duncan if Yao didn't convince you. The problem is with his left thumb. It didn't look fully healed against Minnesota and this could allow Yao to cheat off of him to assist on Gasol. Darko needs to be aggressive to the basket to neutralize the big man. Right now Darko may not be healthy enough to do that.
Advantage: Houston

Benches: Memphis vs Houston

With the 8 man rotation in Memphis there are some players who aren't going to get the playing time they expected in most games. So far that hasn't resulted in any hard feelings but you one has to wonder how long that will continue. Houston doesn't have to wonder. Steve Francis has already gone public with his displeasure over playing time saying that if he realized he would be playing so little he would have signed with the Clippers instead. Nothing wrong with a little competition but doesn't it make more sense to earn playing time than crying about the lack of it? Houston's bench also has Mike James, Bonzi Wells, Luther Head, Dikembe Mutambo and Luis Scola who all have contributed in sporadic amounts. It is tough to keep 10 men happy on a basketball team after all. With Houston wanting more hustle and less star power from their bench these egos are having a tough time dealing with things.
Advantage: Houston

Update I (from Zack):
With Darko again hurt (ankle sprain), you can probably assume that Navarro will be back in the starting lineup and Rudy will be moved down to the 4. However, in the Commercial Appeal today, Darko talks like he is going to play. It will be an interesting situation to monitor before game time. My gut says he won't play, but we clearly need him to guard Yao. Here is what Darko said:

"That's how some ankles work," Milicic said. "It's really not that bad. I'll try it (today) in shootaround. But I'm sure I'll play."

Looks like he will be suiting up. And it was just said on the radio by Rudy Gay that it looks like Darko is going to play. Wow. That injury looked severe on Monday night. If Darko plays, he's got some big stones.

Update II: Today's Houston Chronicle has an article about Shane Battier and his shooting woes

Update III (from Zack): I didn't have time for my usual pregame contribution. So, I'll leave you with this. We aren't going to win this game playing the way the Rockets want to play. They have always had great transition defense and if we let them take away our fast break opportunities, we will be falling into their hands. We need to push the tempo and look to get the ball to JC and MM for those sweet transition 3-pointers. This is also Houston's only home game in an 8 game stretch that spans about 2 weeks. In the Rocket's mind, this is a must win. Go Griz!

Other Game Previews:
Houston Rockets.com
Grizzlies.com

Got a prediction? Leave it in the comments.

Links: Herrington, CA and others

Chris Herrington wrote another excellent blog for the Memphis Flyer which is spooky in how well it dovetails on the Is Trouble Brewing blog from yesterday.

Ron Tillery is really starting to get the hang of this blogging thing. His To Foul or Not to Foul blog was timely and informative. I for one am looking forward to more blogs like this from Ron Tillery. A must read for Grizzlies fans from someone usually harshly criticized. Keep up the great work Ron.

A fan of the Milwaukee Bucks decided to rank teams offenses and defenses and actually used statistics instead of personal observation. The MKE Bucks Diary has the Grizzlies rated 10th in offense and 28th in defense. Remember that when someone says the Grizzlies have to worst defense in the league. We don't. There are two teams with worse defenses.

Joe Larkins has some interesting observations after attending a Grizzlies game. Will someone find him some answers because I honestly don't know the answers to his questions. And why was this such a rare event for Joe? Where the civic pride dude?

HoopsWorld has a Gasol Rumor. Nothing new here just more rehashing of Sam Smith's thoughts. They also have a nice article about Rudy Gay.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Is Trouble Brewing Behind the Scenes?

On Monday Sam Smith reported that Pau Gasol and Marc Iavaroni were not seeing eye to eye and that Gasol could be available in a trade. That night numerous people noticed that Kyle Lowry's body language suggested that he wasn't happy. Damon Stoudamire has made numerous statements that imply he would prefer not being a Memphis Grizzly for much longer. Hakim Warrick and Tarence Kinsey have been deposited deep on the Grizzlies bench when everyone is healthy prompting suggestions that they are in Coach Iavaroni's doghouse. Rumors have circled that Mike Miller is not pleased with his role on the team as well.

For a team that is supposed to be building for the future, not many people seem very happy about playing for the Grizzlies these days. I realize this is a taboo subject and that the players have denied any unhappiness with the organization or the coaching staff. Gasol himself was quoted saying:

"I'm good here," Gasol said. "We're a good, young team. Sure, it could be better, but that's what we're working on, and when we win games it will be better."
Still that air in FedEx Forum has been less than cheery these days. Can all these statements and rumors be nothing but random columnist's conjecture?

During the summer honeymoon with Iavaroni everyone was saying the right things about how positive Iavaroni was and how excited the players were about getting into camp and preparing for the season. Mind you, Gasol's reported enthusiasm about Iavaroni (and playing with his buddy Juan Carlos Navarro) was never actually quoted from Gasol. It was implied but did anyone actually read comments quoting Gasol directly that stated this to be true?

So is the 6-11 record what has the players down right now? Or is something else brewing under the radar? The team struggled out of the gate and has been unable to win a close game yet (0-5 at the time this was written in games decided by three points or less). Has the attendance, which has been sparse at best, upset the players? Or are players unhappy with the style of play that Coach Iavaroni is demanding of the team?

We fans don't have access to the coaches and players so we rely on the news from the 'professional' media to fill in the blanks. Hopefully the journalists will start to ask these tough questions. I left a comment on Chris Herrington's blog and emailed Geoff Calkins and Ron Tillery at the Commercial Appeal about this subject and, as they do have access, hopefully some information will come out about this.

I won't deny this could just be sour grapes after a particularly disappointing loss. It could all be a combination of over-active columnists' imaginations combined with an over-zealous blogger's observations but my momma used to say where there is smoke, there's fire. Right now there is a lot of smoke circling around FedEx Forum.

UPDATE: Pete Pranica addressed the idea of the team fracturing in his blog on Grizzlies.com. He makes some very good points about the reality between the body language signs and the team's attitude. A must read for Grizz fans.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Post Game Thoughts - Portland

Well I didn't get to watch the first game against Portland as I was on a business trip, but this game hurts. Memphis failed to hold onto a 9 point lead near the end of the 3rd quarter and a 5 point lead in the closing minutes to lose to a team that should not have been in the game. This was an important game for the Grizzlies as they have 13 remaining games this month and 10 of the teams have winning records. Now instead of heading to Houston with a two game winning streak and having won 4 out of 5 games they go on the road for a huge three game trip without Darko, without a winning streak and a bad taste in their mouths.

Props go to Mike Miller for a great game but why didn't he take a foul on that last play? It is beyond me what he and the coaching staff were thinking when you are up one with less than three seconds and no time on the clock. That put a damper on his 30 pt, 7 rebound game.

Rudy Gay had a great game and an incredible tip on the Grizzlies last possession to give the team the lead. Rudy also had 30 points with 8 rebounds and 3 assists. Rudy was big all night and he is really becoming the all-around threat that Jerry West envisioned when he traded Shane Battier for him two years ago.

Pau Gasol played well with 16 pts and 14 rebounds (a season high) but was obviously tired at the end of the game. Stro's foul troubles, Darko's injury and Portland's size took its toll on Pau. He gave his all but everyone watching the game had to notice the numerous fast possessions that Pau didn't make it past half court on. To be a truly effective big man in Iavaroni's offense he has to be among the first down the court not the last. I don't know why but Pau looked dreadfully out of shape tonight.

Navarro missed the big shot on the last possession but it was good to see him given the chance. Of all the players on the team Navarro seems most comfortable taking that shot even if he is a rookie. If someone is going to take that shot I want it to be Navarro right now. Hopefully the fact that he missed on this attempt won't prevent him from getting more opportunities in those situations.

Watching the game made me realize just what the team is still missing. We don't have that player who takes the ball in his hands and makes something happen in crunch time. Brandon Roy was the player for Portland who created at the end of the game. Memphis doesn't have that type of player. If and when a deal comes down I hope it will be for a player with that potential.

Portland benefited for the 2nd night in a row from an opponent's big man going down with a twisted ankle. Against San Antonio it didn't matter but it did against Memphis. That one facet had more to do with the Grizzlies losing this game to me than anything else.

It was an exciting game but in the end another game that the Grizzlies had a chance to win but lost in the final seconds or in this case final second. Hopefully it won't leave a hangover but you have to imagine that this game will leave the team with a black eye similiar to the one Gasol started the game with.

Spartacus Says:

Well, Chip covered just about everything I was going to say already, but there were a few things I took away from this game.

1. Juan Carlos Navarro is the new fan favorite on Beale Street. The people around me cheered more loudly for his entrance into the game than they did during the opening introductions I think. If he keeps playing like he did tonight, he'll start getting some more recognition around the league, too.

2. While I like what Navarro brings to the table, he is going to have to curb his tendency to play too much "help defense" as he, along with Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry, left their man wide open for perimeter shots time and time again. In my opinion, this was a big factor in Portland being able to stay in the game all night long.

3. What was up with Nate McMillan's "Jolly Green Giant" look tonight? Green suit with a green mock turtleneck? I'm no fashion expert, but that ensemble was one of the few things I laughed at tonight.

Tough loss tonight, but hopefully the players will learn from it, the coaching staff will make adjustments based on it and the front office (mainly Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni) will make sound evaluations about the players off of it.

Chris Herrington has some great thoughts up on Beyond the Arc, as well. You can also read The Inferno for the Portland perspective of tonight's game.

10 Things From Zack:

1. At one point, half the players on the court were Small Forwards (Outlaw, Webster, Jones, Gay, Miller by my count).

2. Losing Darko to another injury hurts really bad. He is clearly our best defender at the rim. Hurts worse than losing the game.

3. I thought Pau was horrible on offense for most of the game. Just weak. Actually, I credit him with a triple-double tonight. 14 points, 15 rebounds, 13 flails. What happened to Pau's post game? Now, he seems to just spin and head towards the basket, flailing about, looking for a foul. Ugh. Get stronger!

4. Rudy is a stud.

5. The "La Bomba" scoreboard thing after JC cranks a big shot is awesome. And in the past I have joked that Navarro could get punched in the face and the other guy wouldn't get called for a foul. White Mutumbo did almost that, numerous times, on one play in the first half after Navarro got caught in a switch. And no foul was called!!! Ridiculous.

6. I echo what PMI said in the game thread. I am worried about Lowry's body language tonight. After being benched when he missed that layup (and missed the obvious pass), he displayed some pretty discouraging body language the rest of the night. He also came out of the half about 3 minutes after everyone else and went straight to the bench (instead of shooting) and seemed a little down even then. After the game, Iavaroni mentioned that Portland was scheming against Kyle and frustrating him. I took it to mean he was talking about when we were on offense since Kyle played horrible on offense and pretty good on defense.

7. For a team that averages so many points per game, I have no confidence in the ability to get a basket.

8. There was no doubt in my (or HPTMatt's) mind at the end of the game that Portland was going to make the last bucket. It was pretty obvious. Did you know it was one year (plus a day) ago when Posey hit that game winning running 3 pointer? The Griz just usually lose games at the buzzer, not win them.

9. However, I swear it should have been a 5 second in-bounds violation.

10. But then again the game wasn't decided at the end. It was decided during 2 different stretches. The first was the start of the 3rd quarter where the Griz looked absolutely dead with no energy or concentration. We committed 3 turnovers, had 2 bricks, and let the Blazer's score 9 straight to take a lead. The second was the end of the 3rd (and beginning of 4th). After 2 straight turnovers and allowing 3 straight made buckets, Pau tried to heave it down court with a few seconds remaining, but instead allowed Outlaw to get a steal and then a top of the key 3. Then to compound it, we turned the ball over again to start the 4th.

MemphisX's Take

1. This is consistent for this team. The team hasn't won a close game all year simply because we can't get key baskets and we can't make stops. Even if we do happen to force missed shots down the stretch, we tend to give up offensive rebounds.

2. How does Rudy Gay not have the ball in his hands down the stretch? I watched Dallas last night when Chicago was trying to make a comeback on them and it was the Jason Terry-Josh Howard two man game. That is what should be happening between Juan Carlos Navarro and Rudy Game late in games.

3. Did anyone think that Pau was going to win the game when they fed him in the post? Or were you just happy he was able to get it out of his hand before Aldridge or Roy took it from him?

4. Rudy Gay is not a Phoenix "4". He is the prototype for what small forwards should be in this league. Gay has a beautiful jumpshot.

5. It is going to be a rough December.



UPDATE: Ron Tillery wrote in his Memphis Edge blog that
"Mike Miller, who defended Outlaw on the play, said Monday night that it was talked about during the time out. Head coach Marc Iavaroni shed more light on the sequence and his philosophy after Tuesday’s practice.

Iavaroni said he instructed the Grizzlies NOT to foul anyone on a drive to the basket. He doesn’t believe in that. So Miller did exactly what he was told to in that situation because Iavaroni didn’t want to risk a referee’s questionable call sending Outlaw to the free throw line.

Iavaroni noted that fouling on a drive to the basket and whether to consider “continuation” can be interpreted many ways by an official. He pointed out that Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant recently benefited from a generous call.

Sometimes all it takes is for a player to flail his arms and act as if he was shooting to con an official into awarding free throws. It’s something that actually happened in the Griz-Blazers game when a Portland player was clearly fouled before attempting a shot but was considered to be in the act of shooting."

Interesting attitude by the coach.

Links: Point Guard Evaluation, MVP/ROY Rankings, Sam Smith is still Sam Smith

Our old pal David Berri took a look at the Memphis point guards today from his usual statistical perspective on the Wages of Wins Journal. When it was all said and done, Dave arrived at the same conclusion I did in the preseason:

Still, if the numbers for Lowry and Conley hold, Memphis will eventually have to make a decision about who to start and who ultimately to keep. At this point only one thing is certain. The team is not going to keep starting Stoudamire.

It's nice to see confirmation of my evaluation of the PG position from someone who has a lot more clout in academic circles. Another fine post that I recommend reading in its entirety.

We here at 3 Shades of Blue are participating in a season-long ranking of Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year candidates that was organized by Alex of BrewHoop. The other blogs participating are as follows:

BrewHoop
Sactown Royalty
Third Quarter Collapse
20 Second Timeout
Posting and Toasting
Queen City Hoops
TWolvesBlog
Sixers 4 Guidos
Bullets Forever
Green Bandwagon
The Bratwurst
Indy Cornrows
Blog A Bull
Clips Nation

You can view our first rankings of the season with commentary on BrewHoop now.

Yet another far-fetched Pau Gasol to the Chicago Bulls rumor/fantasy out of the Windy City -- this time from delusional old man Sam Smith who is no stranger to making up his own trade proposals involving Memphis Grizzlies. I'm sure everyone remembers his obsession with Shane Battier a few years ago. Really, this one is more like a plea for the Bulls' management to make an offer for the Spaniard than it is a trade rumor. That makes it even worse. What's really funny is how he proclaims how much the Bulls need him while downplaying his abilities at the same time. Reminds me of a certain group of posters on the Grizzlies message boards. Here's an example of Smith's continual contradictions:
Now with a new general manager, a new coach in Marc Iavaroni and a new style,
it's clear that Gasol is lost and likely expendable. At least that's the belief around the NBA, and teams expect a shot at Gasol by the trading deadline. The question is how much you really can give up for a seventh-year player who never has been a good rebounder or defender and hasn't been on the winning side in a playoff game.

If Gasol is such a poor rebounder/defender and is labeled a "loser" then why would Chicago benefit from his presence? Of course, if he had bothered to read Ron Tillery's fine article in yesterday's Commercial Appeal, he'd know that Gasol is working very hard to adjust to Iavaroni's new system, and isn't pleased at all with his current level of production. Of course, that wouldn't get Bulls fans excited about Gasol's "availability", would it? Don't worry Grizz fans -- just another bogus rumor that shouldn't receive any attention beyond this blogger taking the time to shoot it full of holes. If the Grizzlies do decide to trade Gasol, it will take more than Tyrus Thomas and Andres Nocioni to acquire him.

Update: Over on AOL's NBA Fanhouse, Bethlehem Shoals called out Sam Smith for being a doddering old fool for many of the same reasons I did regarding the Pau Gasol wishlist piece. Once again, it is nice to see that I am in agreement with people held in higher respect than myself in the blogosphere.

Pregame: Memphis vs Portland - 12.3.07

SEASON TICKET HOLDER CHALK TALK TONIGHT!!! Special guests include Michael Conley and Tony Barone Sr. Contact the Grizzlies at 888-HOOP for more information

Don't Forget the Owners Experience Ticket Package!

Special Feature
For today's Memphis/Portland pregame commentary, we are pleased to again provide Griz fans some insight into the opposing team by including a question/answer section with an "enemy" blogger. Today, Dave from the great blog Blazer's Edge, agreed to answer 3 questions from Zack, including a discussion on the Blazer's recent troubles, why Sergio isn't playing more (asked with all of our Spanish friends in mind), and the 2nd year growth of Roy and Aldridge. Check out the interview below Chip's Matchups.

Memphis
opened December with a convincing victory over a tired Minnesota team. At first glance it would seem that December is an easy month for the Grizzlies with 9 home games out of 15 but a little further investigation provides a different picture. Only five of the teams Memphis plays this month have losing records (TWolves, Blazers, Clippers, Hawks and 76ers). Throw in two games against San Antonio, New Orleans and Houston and this becomes a very important month for the Grizzlies. The return of Darko couldn't have come at a better time. With Darko back Iavaroni can finally start using the 8 man rotation he has been saying he wanted all season. Baring any more injuries it would appear that Iavaroni has his rotation set and that should mean fewer turnovers and more efficient offensive and defensive play.

Portland has struggled since a four game home win streak back in early November which included a come from behind victory over the Grizzlies. Portland has yet to win on the road as well and with this game being the last of a three game road trip through the Southwest Division (the other games were losses at Dallas and San Antonio) this is not a game that the Blazers want to lose. After this game Portland plays 4 of the next 5 at home and the team wants to come home on a positive note. Coach Nate McMillian is a smart coach who usually gets his team to overachieve so this has been a difficult beginning of the season for McMillian. The one bright spot has been that Portland knows next season brings the return of Greg Oden so the future looks bright for this young team.

Matchups

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Steve Blake
Not many people expected either of these players to be solidifying their starting role at this point of the season. Damon was supposed to be getting eased out by Michael Conley and Kyle Lowry while Steve Blake was supposed to be getting pushed out of his back up role behind Jarrett Jack by Sergio Rodriquez. So much for what the experts anticipated. Damon Stoudamire is actually increasing his minutes since Conley's injury and his shooting is improving as well. Damon is hitting only 40% on the season but an incredible 45% from the arc. Blake's shooting worse than Damon including a shocking 43% from the FT line but his ability to lead the team and keep things under control is desired more right now from McMillian.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Brandon Roy

If there is a premier match up in this game this is it. Two former Rookie of the Year's who lead thier teams in multiple catagories. Roy is 2nd in scoring, second in assists and leads the Blazers in steals. Miller is 3rd in scoring and leads the team in rebounds while tying for the lead in assists. Both players see themselves as clutch scorers but both have had trouble actually performing in the clutch. Roy is shooting only 43% from the field and Miller's troubles are well documented in crunch time around Memphis. Still Miller's rebounding gives him a distinct edge in this match up.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Martell Webster

Rudy Gay plays far better against jump shooters than slashers and Webster is nothing but a jump shooter. Rudy also has scored far better with the Twin Towers playing together and so he should be looking to be more aggressive in this game. Rudy has not been hitting the boards hard enough for Iavaroni's tastes and this is an area that Webster does have an advantage over Rudy. If Rudy hits the offensive glass a stays away from silly fouls he should have an edge in this match up.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs LaMarcus Aldridge

Gasol has the better resume in this battle but Aldridge has had the better season so far. Aldridge is very similiar to Gasol in that he can hit shots out to 15' and has smooth moves around the basket. He has been a more effective rebounder and shot blocker this season and seems ready to take the next step forward in his second year. Gasol is struggling playing in the less structured offense of Iavaroni. While still putting up respectable numbers he hasn't had the big games offensively or defensively that he usually produces. The coaching staff isn't exactly unhappy with his production so far but they are hoping for him to make a bigger impact going forward. Having Darko back should help Gasol adjust.
Advantage: Portland

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Joel Przybilla

Darko returned to the lineup against Minnesota and immediately made his presence felt with 5 blocked shots. Unfortuantly it was obvious that his left thumb is still bothering him and his offensive game was very rusty. Like Darko Pryzbilla has two main jobs on the Blazers and neither involves putting the ball in the basket. He is to protect Portland's basket and clean the rebounds up. Pryzbilla does both quite well. Starting only 6 games so far there hasn't been a noticeable increase in production from Joel but McMillian seems content with his performance so far. Darko is more talented but until the rust goes away and he is capable of using his left hand better he will struggle.
Advantage: Portland

Benches: Memphis vs Portland

Memphis has finally found the rotation Iavaroni has desired the team play this year. The eight man rotation seems to be Kyle Lowry, Juan Carlos Navarro and Stromile Swift. Kyle and Stro have shown an incredible ability to come off the bench and make major impacts but Navarro's best performances has come as a starter. He is a streak shooter who needs to learn how to be ready coming into games as his chances of starting with Rudy and Miller ahead of him are not too good right now. Portland also likes to bring impact players off the bench in the form of Jarret Jack, Travis Outlaw and Channing Frye. The three players are the most effective of a very talented and very young bench that includes Sergio Rodriguez, Taureen Green and Josh McRoberts.
Advantage: Memphis

3 Questions With Dave from Blazer's Edge

Dave was kind and agreed to answer 3 questions from Zack. After you read his answers here, go check out his game preview and also be aware that he has an open game thread as well, which will generate a lot of comments from Blazer's fans during games. Maybe go check out what Blazer fans are saying when you're not posting at the grizzlies.com game thread.

SoB: Last time our respective teams met, the Blazers were in the midst of an impressive 4 game winning streak and things seemed to be going really good. However, that winning streak was followed up by losing 8 of 9 games (at the time of writing this). What changed? Has anything been a consistent factor contributing to those losses?

Dave: Yes…the NBA catching up to them. The duo of Lamarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy is as dreamy as they come. You couldn’t ask for two more well-rounded, solid, dependable offensive players. Aldridge is showing real promise on defense as well. However that’s two players out of fifteen. The league has figured out that if you make the other thirteen guys win the game the Blazers will struggle. Lamarcus and Brandon will still contribute--with rebounds, assists, and hustle if not points--but if you make life tough on them they can’t yet pull out games themselves.

Unfortunately the Blazers have a lot of one- or two-dimensional players at other positions. Joel Przybilla is a good rebounder and shot blocker but his offense allows other teams to ignore him. Steve Blake sets up teammates well but cannot get his own shot. Travis Outlaw is all about getting his own shot but runs hot and cold and often wrecks our schemes at both ends of the court by not being where he’s supposed to. Martell Webster has made great strides but he still misses shots he should hit. When all of them are on we’re going to win against almost anybody. But that rarely happens in the same week, let alone the same game.

Also the team is really, really young. If the Spurs and Suns are long-standing beauties like Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie and the Mavs and Nuggets are current hotties like Jessica Alba and Jessica Simpson then we’re freakin’ Hannah Montana. We’re cute enough, we have some talent, but there’s no mistaking us for the competition. We need another few years in the oven. One of the hallmarks of youth is inconsistency. Another is not being able to formulate a Plan B when Plan A fails. We have been plagued by both all season.

SoB: Our Spanish readers would probably like for me to cut to the chase and ask why is Sergio averaging less than 10 minutes per game? But I’d like to also hear more about your point guard rotation in general. When Conley was healthy we had a similar situation of having three deserving point guards with differing styles fighting for playing time. What is the point guard rotation right now in Portland? How successful has it been playing two point guards at the same time? Is there any ‘writing on the wall’ regarding the feeling of the front office on which players are pegged to be in the point guard rotation in future years?

Dave: Sergio is getting more run lately and has responded with a couple of nice games. But really he’s still a garbage-time wonder at best. His defense is poor. His decision-making is getting better but is still not up to snuff. Most importantly even though he passes the ball beautifully when Sergio plays best it’s all about Sergio…his dribbles, his passes, his speed. Our first unit needs to focus on Roy and Aldridge. Right now none of the three are experienced enough to make that mesh. Sergio is by far the most expendable of the group, so he plays with the second unit when he’s hot and sits on the pines when he’s not. There’s been plenty of both.

Our problem is not, as fans thought early in the season, that we have many deserving point guards worthy of playing time. It’s that we have many point guards who are decent but also inadequate, just in different ways. The field is thinning though. Steve Blake is the steadiest, most experienced, and probably plays the best overall game. You have a hard time living with his individual offense though and when he’s out of his comfort zone he’s in big trouble. Jarrett Jack is really proving himself more of a shooting guard. He has a strong, thick body and excels at getting to the hoop and finishing while drawing fouls. He also has a decent jumper when he’s in rhythm. He can pass and dribble but running the offense takes him away from his strengths. He’ll probably be a scoring combo guard somewhere down the line. Sergio needs way more experience, poise, and concentration to be a regular rotation player. Taurean Green has heart but is probably D-League material at this point.

As far as the future, Blake is probably gone when his option year comes up in 2009. Unless something changes the team will jettison him to open up more cap space that summer. Jack could very well stick if he continues to evolve as a bench scorer. Opinions are mixed on Sergio and he’s a guaranteed hot-headed conversation starter among Blazer fans. My guess is that he’ll not ever be consistent enough to be what this team needs but that he might develop elsewhere. Green is a non-factor at this point.

SoB: The Grizzlies success this year is likely tied to the development and maturation of 2nd year forward Rudy Gay. Overall, results are encouraging. Rudy has shown a lot of growth in the scoring department, at times looking like our #1 option on offense while playing both forward positions. However, improvement in other aspects of Rudy’s game, like passing, rebounding and staying out of foul trouble, are a little disappointing. In what ways and how much has Portland 2nd year studs, Roy and Aldridge, improved their game?

Dave: They are polar opposites of Rudy. He’s an amazing athletic talent who needs to learn how to refine his game. They have fairly refined games (for second year guys) but need to learn how to take advantage of their talent. You see evidence of their greatness on a weekly basis. They bust out with incredible games, clutch shots, highlight-reel defense, and enough smart, engaging newspaper quotes to make even their harshest critics love them. In those moments you forget they're young. On the other hand you also see evidence of their inexperience: hanging heads when things go wrong, failure to get consistent shots from consistent places on the court, failure to take the bull by the horns and dominate a game in favor of involving teammates, failure to drive the team over the top in games that could be won. If anything they’re too nice, too smooth, too unselfish. They need some fire, nastiness, and maybe even a little bit of that confident selfishness that makes superstars great.

As a huge Blazer fan I was harsh on this team’s players for years during the era that preceded this one. I disliked the both the games and the prospects of many Blazers of recent vintage and was not shy in saying so. I can tell you with confidence that these two are different. They are going to be great. That’s beyond question. The issue is, will they be the kind of great that makes you feel nice, warm, and fuzzy even though they never won it all or will they be the kind of great that makes you stand in awe at how they wrestled the league into submission? I’m rather hoping for the latter once Greg Oden returns and gets a couple years under his belt. But a little dash of Rudy Gay’s take-no-prisoners explosiveness would do all of them a world of good.

Got a prediction? Leave it in the comments.

Other Previews/Blogs
Beyond the Arc
Trailblazers - Mike Barret
Grizzlies.com

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Links: Iavaroni, Navarro, Varejao, Rankings

Short of time today, so you're getting the ultra-condensed version.

The Arizona Republic -- Marc Iavaroni sticks with old ways.

Bleacher Report (NBA Rookie Report) -- Juan Carlos Navarro #2 Rookie.

The Morning Journal -- Varejao contract situation has everyone watching (a couple of Grizzlies mentions).

Mike Bucks Diary -- Grizzlies #15 on the Power Rankings.

Sorry for being so brief, but it has become a busy day all of a sudden.

Post Game Thoughts- Minnesota

My first impression is that Minnesota is a terrible team. That is probably true but they aren't as terrible as they played last night. Their schedule had them playing at Dallas Wednesday, at home Friday against San Antonio and then in Memphis Saturday. The TWolves played tough against Dallas and San Antonio but looked flat and listless in Memphis. Chalk this effort by Minnesota up to the schedule maker as much as anything else.
However Memphis still played a very good game. Using a tight 8 man rotation from most of the game, Memphis looked comfortable and confident. Minnesota wasn't that tired at the beginning (remember Memphis led in Toronto after one quarter in Toronto on Wednesday night) and Memphis still dominated play. The 26-21 score didn't tell the story of how dominant Memphis was in that quarter. Damon Stoudamire was on fire hitting three 3 pt shots in 1:21 seconds of game time. Mike Miller, who tied team records for rebounds in a quarter with 8 and a half with 11, was unstoppable on the boards. To me it seemed Mike's rebounds were a direct result of Darko and Pau blocking out the Minnesota big men and leaving Miller to clean up the board.

Speaking of Darko, his thumb isn't healed. He struggled catching the ball and shooting the ball but he knows the fundamentals of the game. He played great defense on Al Jefferson and set tough picks, blocked shots (5) as well as keeping Jefferson away from the offensive glass. Memphis is a far stronger and more physical team with Darko even if he can't catch the ball with that bad thumb.

Gasol was much more active with Darko back in the game but he also was active when Stro was in the game. One play in particular signified how much more active Gasol was tonight. Al Jefferson got a pass down low and faked Gasol into the air and then laid in a shot. Damon took the ball inbounds and promptly launched a long pass down to a streaking Gasol who had beaten everyone down court. The pass was a touch too long and Gasol couldn't finish the shot but the fact that he got from under the basket to the other end that fast showed how much more active Gasol was.

Stromile Swift was the #3 big man and had a sensational night. This surprised me a bit since at the start of the game Stro was sitting at the end of the bench. I was concerned that the return of Darko might put Stro into one of his infamous funks but he played hard from the minute he entered the game and the Grizzlies big men completely controlled the game. If there was a match up that concerned me it was the Minnesota bigs against the Grizzlies. Darko, Pau and Stro not only matched the TWolves but dominated them.

The point guard rotation isn't progressing as I expected and that is a very good thing for the Grizzlies. Damon Stoudamire benefited somewhat from not having to match up against 6-7 Marco Jaric who was not even on the bench tonight. I wonder where he was? On second thought after checking out his girlfriend again I wonder why he ever shows up!

Still Damon played good defense, passed the ball well and was on from outside which opened up the paint for the Grizzlies. His 25 minutes again may mean that he is establishing himself as the primary point guard on the team. I had expected his minutes to be declining not increasing heading into December. Not that Kyle Lowry didn't play well. He did. It is just that Damon seems to run the offense better and as long as he plays respectable defense his outside shooting adds an offensive threat that Lowry can't match.

So it was a nice win for the Grizzlies. This team can't afford to lose a home game to Minnesota and they didn't. The blowout was as much as scheduling victory as a team victory but the tea still did what they had to do to win. Last season there weren't a lot of games that the Grizzlies were expected to win. It is nice to see this year's team do what was expected and so convincingly as well.

Other Postgame Recaps/Reviews
TWolvesBlog.com
Beyond the Arc
Commercial Appeal
The Sports Network
St. Cloud Times
The Canadian Press