Was Conley a Mistake?

The following comment came up on the Grizzlies Message Board about the biggest mistake in Grizzlies history:

Drafting Conley instead of a long list of others. I like Conley & think he will be good, but we used a 1st rounder on Lowry the previous year and knew that this draft was full of PG's.

How were the Grizzlies supposed to know that last season's group of high schoolers would be this good? Mayo, Bayless and Rose all have extreme talents but I expect each will struggle in their first season in the NBA.

Just like almost every rookie PG does their first year in the NBA.

Just as Conley has done this season. It isn't a coincidence that the Sophomores have only lost once to the rookies on All-Star weekend and it isn't that the drafts just keep getting worse.

First Conley wasn't mentally ready, then he was injured and he didn't get into the swing of things until the last part of the season but he did average 14.3 ppg, 4.3 apg and shot 48% from the field (45% from the arc) the last 8 games of the season. How many people honestly believe any of this season's crop of rookies will average that next season? Or for any month next season? How many of this year's rookies will be averaging almost 10 ppg and 4.2 apg after 53 games next year?

Conley (10/11/87) is the same age as Mayo (11/5/87), 10 months older than Bayless (8/20/88) and just one year older than Rose (10/4/88). I think this time next season he will be far ahead of this year's rookie point guards. I don't know where any of them will be 5 years from now but I hardly think Memphis will be embarrassed by his production.

The poster went on the say that Memphis should have drafted Joakim Noah or Brandon Wright. Can you imagine the furor in Memphis if the Grizzlies had taken one of those players instead of Conley. First Damon Stoudamire would probably still have been starting for the Grizzlies! Second, Lowry, if everyone remembers clearly, was unable to lift a remote control with his injured wrist as the draft approached last year and there were concerns that he would never regain full ability with that wrist.

Of course this poster knew Lowry would be fine, would have had no problem with Damon playing all season in Memphis and would be happy to have Brandon Wright on the team with his 4.2 ppg and 2.8 rpg. Brandon Wright only played 48 games this season in total and he wasn't injured.

Noah I must admit was a different discussion. I actually thought that the final decision should have been between Noah and Conley. Noah has done well since the Bulls traded Joe Smith and Ben Wallace and one could only assume he would have done well in Memphis after Gasol and Swift were traded as well. Of course there is no guarantee that Noah will be better than Lopez, Randolph, Love or Beasley from this draft. Probably better next season but not after three years (see above for the rational on why rookies aren't better than second year players). Of course Noah is also 23 years old now. How much improvement will we see in his game over the next few years compared to a 20 yr old?

People screamed last season that Rudy shouldn't have been traded for Shane. Does anyone feel that way now? Will those people who felt it was a mistake stand up and admit that they felt that way?

Anyone?

Bueller?

No. I didn't expect they would. The reality is that every year the players entering the draft look better than those already in the league. Why? They played against weaker competition. They had more time off between games. They played under a different set of rules. It isn't easy in the NBA. Players struggle making the transition and point guards struggle more than others.

So before you go off and say Mike Conley is the biggest mistake the Grizzlies have ever made, stop and think a little bit. This is the team that signed Cesary Trebanski to a free agent contract. This is a team that traded for Antonio Burks, Andre Emmitt and Lawrence Roberts - none of whom play in the USA right now. This is a team that drafted Robert Archibald and passed on Carlos Boozer. This is the team that traded for Otis Thorpe and missed out on Carmello Anthony, Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh because of it.

How can anyone seriously say Mike Conley was the biggest in Grizzlies history?

Season in Review: Juan Carlos Navarro

Juan Carlos Navarro was supposed to be here simply because Pau Gasol, his good friend, wanted him here. Pau is gone now but Navarro is talking like he wants to stay despite being a restricted free agent this summer. I wonder how long before LA makes him an offer and that attitude changes.

Of course Navarro may not want to play in LA. He is married, isn't making Gasol type money so maybe he is happier here. I know Memphis fans love him. He, like Hakim Warrick, obviously loves playing basketball. His smile is contagious. His flare for the game hasn't been seen since the early days of Jason Williams. He wears his emotions where everyone can see it and usually that emotion is like a little boy playing with a puppy. Pure joy and laughter.

Navarro is the type of player the beer chugging, weekend warriors think they could be. He's not so tall. He's not so fast. He just has a great vision of the game and plays for the love it more than anything else. Navarro would play the game for free and practically did this season after paying Barcelona to buy out his contract. How can the fans not love this guy?

He can shoot well but like most rookies he struggled with his shot. When he was on he could bring the team back from oblivion almost single-handed. He did that against New Orleans back in November when he hit 8 of 9 three pointers on the way to 28 pt game off the bench! The Grizzlies were down 12 points in the 1st quarter when Navarro checked into the game. When he sat back down the Grizzlies were down 4 points and Navarro had 19 pts and 2 assists over that span.

Defensively he improved during the year to reach a level of only being bad. He was really terrible at first but the fans accepted that in anticipation of seeing that peculiar haircut dropping a floater in the lane over 7 ft giants who looked silly trying to block it. Don't mistake his smile and emotion as not being concerned about the game either. Navarro is extremely competitive and wants the team to do well. Navarro really lives the game. Each close loss looked to injure him personally and the blowouts would leave him despondent.

The problem is that after the Gasol trade not only did Memphis lose his closest friend but the team also picked up a 19 yr old swing guard who needs to play and has a guaranteed contract not to mention being 7 yrs younger than Navarro. Where that leaves the Spaniard is unclear. Memphis is on the hook for 6 more years from the trade with Washington for a #1 pick. Obviously the Grizzlies didn't give away that draft pick for just one year's service. However there are only so many minutes to use at Shooting Guard behind Mike Miller. Quite likely Navarro will be used in a Sign & Trade deal for an upgrade somewhere else on the roster or for future picks.

If that happens this summer Memphis will surely miss the man who brought so much fun and excitement to the Grizzlies last season.

Links: Hardwood Paroxysm is all you need

If you haven't added Hardwood Paroxysm to your daily reading list, then I don't know what to say other than "What are you? Some kinda moron???"

Matt and Corn have entertained us here at 3SoB all season long and we feel confident that if you read a few of their posts that you will reach the same conclusion.

The published the results of their 2008 NBA Blogger Season Awards and we are very proud to say that 3 Shades of Blue tied for 1st place in the Western Conference (Bloggers' Choice Division) with Sactown Royalty and came in 2nd place in the Southwest Division behind Hornets 24/7. We are very appreciative to all the bloggers who voted for us.

In addition to that, if you haven't already, go check out the playoff previews that HP put out last week (you know, before the playoffs began), as well as the fantastic Five Things posts that Matt has been writing for The Fanhouse for every single playoff game.

The final edition of the Blogger MVP/ROY Rankings have been posted on We Rite Goode. The MVP rankings came down to the same three candidates that the rest of the NBA world is trying to figure out the correct order of, while the ROY rankings weren't much of a surprise to anyone. They even added a few new categories, including Coach of the Year, Most Improved Player and 7th Man. They also added some great graphs that chart the MVP candidates through all the rankings. Really great job guys!

David's Grizzlies Blog: The Memphis Grizzlies - Where Amazing Happens

Bleacher Report: What's Next for the Non-Playoff Teams

We need all the fans we can get, so I'm happy to see young Ainsley join the club.

Season in Review: Hakim Warrick

Hakim Warrick's time was a tale of two seasons. The first half he was buried on the bench behind Gasol at the PF spot. In the 2nd half he broke out in the post-Gasol era to suddenly show he can score in the NBA. He can rebound in the NBA. He can't play defense in the NBA however which made it necessary for the Grizzlies to go almost exclusively to a zone defense the last few months of the season. That isn't good for an NBA team.

As a starter Hakim averaged 16.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg and 1.0 apg. Frankly I was surprised to see he averaged one assist per game since he never seemed to pass the ball. Chris Herrington described Hak in the pre-season as possibly the worst passer in the NBA and Warrick did nothing to change that opinion during the season. His numbers seem more than adequate for a starting PF until you look a little closer. 6.9 rpg is way below average for a starting PF. 1.0 apg is a joke and he only gets 0.5 bpg. That is ridiculous for a leaper like Hakim. Is it that he just doesn't know how to time his leaps to influence shots or is it that he just doesn't care to try?

Hak will turn 26 in July and after 4 years in the league he has shown little in the way of overcoming his deficiencies and it seems obvious his role is better suited to a bench player providing instant offense than as a starter. When people state that Memphis needs a more bruising presence in the paint they are referring to Warrick not being enough of one.

On the bright side Hakim has really improved his range this season. His 3 pt% was above Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton and Casey Jacobsen for instance and was getting better as the season progressed (unlike Casey). Warrick is able to take some of the more lumbering PF's away from the basket with that range opening up lanes for the Grizzlies guards to penetrate into. When the point guards outside shot isn't being respected they need someone to open up spaces for them and Warrick excelled in that role. If he continues to develop that range, and the point guards learn to hit open outside shots, he could become an even more valuable scoring asset receiving passes from the guards after they penetrate.

When paired with Rudy Gay, Hakim is part of one of the most exciting forward tandems in the league. How many teams in NBA history have started at both forward positions players that competed in the NBA Slam Dunk contest? Hakim can sky with the best in the league. His enthusiasm for the game in contagious and he can get the fans out of their seats when he hot. His smile and passion allow most Memphians to overlook his faults because he truly plays like a college kid more than a professional. Probably more than anyone else on the team it seems Hakim likes to play basketball.

One has to wonder if Hakim will ever develop as a defensive player. He showed signs of improvement as the season progressed. His steals and blocks were on the rise but only in proportion to the increase in minutes. Yes his absolute number of steals and blocks were higher but not when you factor in the dramatic increase in minutes played. With his age and experience in the league it is unlikely that he will suddenly develop these skills now.

The good news is that Memphis seems to appreciate Hak's efforts and understands his limitations. He is a fan favorite at games and is extremely considerate to the fans. His days as a starter may be numbered in weeks not years depending on the outcome of the lottery but it is unlikely that he would be moved either. Hak is a draw on a team desperate for players that the fans can relate to. His attitude is great and he gives 100% effort whether starting or coming off the bench. Warrick is truly one of the few bright spots on the team right now.

Season in Review: Mike Miller

Mike Miller had a roller coaster season emotionally but a solid season on the court. He is a consumate professional in that regard and a good role model for the younger players who are the future of the franchise.

However he is not a part of the future of the franchise. Whether he makes it until the end of his contract or gets traded earlier in unknown at this time.

It's kind of sad to think that Miller is considered too old to be a part of the future of the franchis. He is only 28 after all. Hardly an old man even by NBA standards but the Grizzlies are focusing on 3-5 years out and Miller at 31-33 would be past his prime and he has value now that won't be there later.

Anyway, back to this year. Miller came into camp after a rough stretch with Team USA in the Olympics qualifying tournement. He was basically the worst player on the team. Still Miller came into the season ready to play and put together quite possibly the best overall season of his career. He was one of only two players who shot over 50% from the field (50.2%), 40% from the arc (43.2%) grabbed more than 6 rebounds (6.7) and scored more than 15 ppg (16.4). Danny Granger at Indiana being the other. His decrease in scoring from the previous season can be attributed to the 139 fewer field goal attempts as well as the 3.8 fewer minutes played per game.

It seems on paper that Miller may have been struggling down the stretch as his shooting percentages and minutes both decreased sharply. The minutes can be explained by the team's desire to see how the younger players performed (Navarro and Crittenton) but the shooting percentages and rebounding seems to imply there was more to this than just decreased court time. Mike is a 100% player who frequently throws his body around to make plays. That may be causing back problems which could have far reaching consequences. Miller is a noted gym rat who may not allow his body the proper time to recuperate regardless of the amount of minutes he plays in a game or what he commits to in the off-season.

Heading into next season Mike is still slated to be the starting SG and backing up Rudy Gay but this is a long off-season and a lot can happen between now and then. With the cap space the team enjoys a trade could be made to bring in a more expensive player at the SG position enabling Miller to become the 6th man again backing up both Rudy at the 3 and the SG position. That may be Miller's best role on the team since defensively he is still viewed as a liability. Assuming he is still the starter then Memphis should expect to struggle against the better scoring guards in the league despite Mike's shot making ability.

Season in Review: Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay was brought to Memphis in a draft day deal in June of 2006. This trade upset a lot of people since it meant giving up on Shane Battier, one of if not the most popular player ever to don a Grizzlies uniform either in Memphis or Vancouver.

That wasn't the roughest part of his first two seasons in Memphis.

Two coaches fired (and rumor of a 3rd possibly any day), a veteran bought out of his contract and a drop from the playoffs to the worst team in the league followed.

Rudy's rookie year was solid for a 20 yr old. 10.8 ppg, 42% shooting from the field, 4.5 rpg and nearly a block and a steal a game (0.9 each per game). People commented that he was no Shane Battier but he had some promise. After the 2nd season in the Rudy Gay era you don't hear too many complaints that he shouldn't have been traded for Shane.

Rudy exploded in his 2nd season. He averaged over 20 ppg becoming only the 3rd Grizzlies player to achieve this level. His rebounding, assists, steals and blocks were all improved from his rookie season. What was truly amazing was his shooting efficiency that improved dramatically. His FG% improved from 42.2% to 46.2%. His free throw shooting improved from 72.7% to 78.5% and while his 3 pt shooting declined slightly (36.4% to 34.2%) the overall effect was some of the most improved play of the year from any player.

More important than simply the total numbers were the 'clutch' numbers. Rudy's performance during the 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left and neither team ahead by more than 5 points (as defined by 82games.com) was all-star like. His per 48 minute production during these pressure filled points of the game equated to 33.7 ppg on 52.8% FG%!

Memphis may have finally found a player who doesn't just score 'plastic' points. And most of those points came without the assistance of a 2nd true threat. Gay's clutch numbers were assisted on a shockingly low 31% of his points. To put that in perspective his numbers to assists compare with the Kobe Bryants (23%) and LeBron Jame (23%) more than it does Carmello Anthony (58%) or Kevin Durant (61%) who's game are far more similar to Rudy's (more on this when I cover Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry by the way).

Rudy has improved dramatically from his rookie season to his sophomore season but still has a way to go to reach 'elite' status much less become a superstar. His ball-handling skills are below average which becomes a larger problem with the low level of assists he receives on his shot. His own assists are also low for a player wanting to be mentioned among the best in the league. Averaging around 2.5 apg puts him over an assist a game behind the average small forward in the league and way behind the leaders at his position. To be considered among the best in the league he needs to learn how to share the ball as much as score it.

Rudy needs to improve his defense and rebounding as well. It can't be expected that he can improve his shooting percentages by the amount he improved this season so for Rudy to move to the next level he will need to do more of the other things that players do in the NBA. Passing, rebounding and defending.

So what can we expect from a 22 yr old Rudy Gay next year? Honestly I believe Rudy can become the all-time single season scoring average leader for the Grizzlies next season. Now granted that isn't saying a lot since he only needs to average 24 ppg to reach that level, but all the same that mark is within his reach in only his 3rd year in the league.

Throw in 8 rebounds and 4 assists per game and he will get some serious notice around the league. Not enough to be named to the all-star team but notice just the same.

What's the Chance?

With the Grizzlies locked into the #4 lottery spot in the upcoming draft it is time to figure out just how the 4th worst team in the league did in previous drafts. Not because it gives us any glimpse into the future but simply because there is nothing else for me to blog about. I am a NBA fan and outside of the Tigers don't know enough to comment on the potential lottery picks.

Lucky for 3 SOB readers, MemphisX is quite capable and will probably being writing something about it.

I do like History and Math however so I will blog about what I know something about. The NBA Lottery has been around since 1985 when the Knicks won the live lottery. The Knicks had the 3rd worst record in the NBA that season. Seattle and Sacramento tied for the 4th worst record. Since the lottery wasn't weighted back then it didn't matter if there was a tie-breaker. Seattle got the fourth pick (Xavier McDaniel) and Sacramento got the 6th pick (Joe Kleine).

After the 1985-86 season New York had the worst record in the league followed by Indiana, Cleveland (who traded their pick to Dallas) and Golden St. The Warriors had the 4th worst record in the league and the worst record in the Western conference but also had the same record as Chicago who made the playoffs in the East. Some things never change. The Warriors did better than the previous season and got to pick 3rd in the draft. They took Chris Washburn...

In 1987 the Spurs had the fourth worst record in the NBA. They choose someone named David Robinson after winning the lottery. Their franchise has never looked back.

The 1988 lottery had two teams that failed to win 20 games for the first time since the lottery was installed and a third team won only 20 games. The Clippers, with the worst record in the league, also had Sacramento's pick who was the 4th worst team. The Clippers picked 1st and 6th. I have not found any record that tells which envelope was which so we don't know if the 4th team won the lottery or the worst team.

1989 was the last year of the unweighted lottery. Expansion teams Miami and Charlotte (the Hornets not the Bobcats) had the worst records followed by the Clippers and San Antonio. The Spurs didn't win the lottery but did get the 3rd pick who turned into Sean Elliot.

Since all of those seasons were unweighted there was no true advantage in dumping games. You gained nothing from having the worst record or being the team just out of the playoffs. Everything changed in 1990. Now if you finished last in the regular season you got 11 Ping Pong balls, second to last got 10, etc all the way until the 11th team got one single ball. 4 teams failed to crack the 20 win plateau that season. Sure it could have been just a coincidence but it is rather interesting. The Charlotte Hornets had the 4th worst record in the league and picked 5th in the draft. That system last 3 more years with the 4th team picking second, fifth and seventh. So over the four years of the extra ball lotteries the 4th worst record averaged picking 4.8 and picked lower than their seed in 3 of the 4 drafts but never worse than 7th.

The current system began in 1994 and the fourth worst record netted Milwaukee the correct combination as they won the draft and picked Glenn Robinson from Purdue. In 1995 the fourth worst team picked 3rd. 1996 that team picked 4th. 1997 they got the 5th pick. In 1998 Golden St picked 5th. 1999 Toronto got the 5th pick. 2000 saw the Grizzlies pick second and draft Stromile Swift, 2001 Memphis (for the first time) picked Shane Battier with their pick at #6. 2002 saw Denver pick 5th. 2003 was Miami and they got the 5th pick. In 2004 the Clippers picked 4th. In 2005 Utah picked 4th. 2006 saw Atlanta pick 4th and last year Atlanta was again the fourth worst team and they picked 3rd.

So since the adoption of the current method the fourth worst record in the NBA has once, second once, third twice, fourth four times, fifth five times and sixth only once. That means that the team with the 4th worst record in the NBA has never picked 7th since the creation of this draft system.

So what does this tell us? Nothing because each drawing is an unique event. There is nothing to learn from looking into the past with this system any more than you can determine the next flip of a coin by the preceeding flips. You know on average the team should have just under a 12% chance of picking first and only a 37.73% probablity of picking in the top 3 but every year a team that shouldn't make it seems to beat the odds.

Maybe this year is Memphis' turn.

Links: It's Finally Over Edition

Bethlehem Shoals (SLAM Online) cranks up the QuoteMonger and delivers the goods once again. This was the funniest thing I read all day and it wasn't even close.

David Berri (Wages of Wins) forecasts the NBA playoffs and examines the nucleus in Memphis.

Indy Star: A bear of a first NBA season for Mike Conley

The Grizzlies lost the lottery position tiebreaker with Minnesota yesterday. C'est la vie.

Empty the Bench has 5 Questions with Hakim Warrick and Mike Conley, Jr.

Hoops Addict lists Javaris Crittenton among their Players with Upside. They also have a nice profile of Marc Gasol.

The CA follows up with some quality thoughts of their own on "The Other Gasol".

City Pages (Minneapolis/St. Paul) has some good analysis of Rudy Gay.

You should let Mike Conley Jr. pick your bracket next year. (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

Section of FedEx Forum stands collapse -- With Leather says that Barry Zito is to blame.

Current and former Grizzlies Mike Miller, Stromile Swift and Chucky Atkins participated in the DUBS auto show to benefit Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

Check out Rudy Gay's new shoes - The Nike Viz Air


Remember way back at the beginning of the season when we gave our preview of the Grizzlies for CelticsBlog? Plenty of other bloggers gave previews of their teams, too. Well, now it is time to revisit those previews and see just how wrong we were and figure out where we went wrong.

NBA Reviews
Atlantic Division
Central Division
Southeast Division
Southwest Division
Northwest Division
Pacific Division

Ballhype Grades for the Previews

Don't Hire the Movers Just Yet

The fellas over at Hardwood Paroxysm were good enough to send me the link to this post from Jon Burkett of Passion and Pride, a fine Philadelphia 76ers blog. I enjoy most of Jon's writing, but he made a huge error by continuing to espouse the theory popularized by ESPN.com's Bill Simmons that the Memphis Grizzlies should be the team that is moving, rather than the Seattle SuperSonics. *Sigh* I try and I try, but at this point, I just cannot be nice about it anymore. The video sums up my feelings on the subject quite succinctly.



You tell 'em Howard Beale!

Here's why the Memphis Grizzlies won't be moving to Seattle anytime soon (once again for the hard of hearing and absent-minded):

1. Iron-clad lease with the city of Memphis for the next decade. Really, this is reason enough, but I'll give you a few more.
2. Strong corporate support, despite lukewarm fan support.
3. New, state-of-the-art arena already in place, rather than still needing one to be built with taxpayers' dollars.
4. Unlike David Stern's apparent apathy towards the fine citizens of Seattle (or is that a reflection of their own apathy???), he is committed to the NBA remaining in Memphis. He wasn't nearly as definitive about the NBA in New Orleans, though.

In fact, let's talk about the New Orleans Hornets a little, shall we? If we're going to bring up a team that Clay Bennett should buy and move to Oklahoma City, why aren't the Hornets -- who have already spent time in OKC -- being mentioned as that team? Why not let Bennett and George Shinn switch franchises, move the Hornets to OKC and keep the Sonics in Seattle? Let's be honest -- the population of New Orleans has dwindled to the point where it is obvious that they cannot support two professional franchises. That's not a judgment of them -- just a cold, hard look at the facts. There are not enough people with disposable income to support two teams. I'm not trying to "rob" the Crescent City of their fantastic team -- as Burkett, Simmons and others are trying to do to Memphians -- just illustrating that there are other, more obvious teams to use as examples when seeking to "fill the void" that the departing Sonics will leave.

That brings up another interesting point. I have yet to visit Seattle, but everyone I know of that has been there has absolutely raved about it. So, I'm quite sure that it is a great city. I do find it curious that over the past 15 years, all three of their major sports franchises have threatened to move, with the Sonics apparently being the first to actually do so. I remember that playoff series between the Mariners and Yankees that "saved" Major League Baseball in the Pacific Northwest. I have seen the stands sway as the raucous crowd cheered on the Super Bowl bound Seahawks. I've seen the Sonics go deep into the playoffs on the backs of Payton, Kemp, Allen and Lewis. If the fans in Seattle really, truly wanted to keep their team, they would have made sure that they did what was necessary to make that a happen -- namely, funded a new arena. I've also seen the attendance numbers for the Sonics over the last few seasons.

That's why Memphis gets thrown in there at the whim of every writer with something to say, you know -- attendance. The Houston Chronicle's Zachary Levine had some interesting things to say about 3 of the 6 teams at the bottom of the attendance rankings:

Competition hurts some NBA teams.

Of the six teams at the bottom of the NBA pecking order, three play in some of the best college basketball markets in America — an issue the NHL doesn't have to deal with in nearly the same magnitude.

The Pacers average a league-worst 12,179 at an arena within 90 minutes of Indiana University (16,699 per game) and of West Lafayette, Ind., where Purdue draws more than 11,000 per game.

The 76ers compete with five Division I schools within the city limits of Philadelphia and also with suburban Villanova, which sells out every game at a 6,500-seat on-campus facility and averaged 19,928 in its first two games at the Wachovia Center.

And then there are the Memphis Grizzlies, who share a building with the No. 1 Tigers and come up 4,000 short at the turnstiles. And the way they're going this year, maybe that's not the only way they would lose to their co-tenants.

That's right Mr. Burkett, he brings up your own Sixers team among those at the bottom of the attendance numbers with competing high-level college teams in close proximity, drawing fans away. How about you worry about the team in your own backyard before you come down South looking to meddle with mine? The Memphis Grizzlies are here to stay.

Final Power Rankings 4-14 to 4-16

	THE FINAL RANKINGS FOR 2007/08 Grizzlies average ranking of 26. Some nice kudos that the franchise has a youthful, bright future.
Power Rankings for 14 & 15 April '08
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