Being Brandon Roy

by MemphisX
Training camp opens for 30 NBA teams in various parts of the United States in a little over a week. Some teams have already assembled informally and began their preparations for the 2008-09 season. For a select few, this will mark their first foray into the world of NBA basketball. No more school books on the road trips, it is time to grow up on and off the court.

From this point forward, draft position means nothing. All that matters is what you do or don't do when the ball is tossed up. The 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year race looks to be a highly competitive affair. Unlike last season when Kevin Durant's only challenger was the Atlanta Hawks Al Horford. This season there seems to be five players which a very good chance at making a run for the rookie of the year trophy (The Brandon Roy Trophy from this point forward).

To be a serious threat to win the rookie of the year award depends as much on opportunity as talent. It is hard to put up the numbers riding the bench and their are no points awarded for being on a good team. So some players, like Eric Gordon and Jerryd Bayless, are going to have a hard time even getting in the mix due to the minute crunch they will face on their teams.


So here are my top five candidates for the 2009 Brandon Roy Trophy:


The Favorite - Greg Oden

Most of the preseason prognosticators will tell you to be patient with Oden because he is coming off the dreaded microfracture surgery. However, microfracture is about to go the way of the ACL injury. As medical information catches up with the proper way to rehab from the injury, the recovery process is quicker and nearly 100%. Also, all microfractures are not equal. I am big on Oden. He was considered a generational big man coming into the league. He is in the mold of Shaq, Duncan, David Robinson, and Patrick Ewing. He is simply going to be dominant and most likely it will start to surface before the calander hits 2009. Oden is big, quick, long and has great hands. He is physical around the rim like Shaq and strong enough to get position even on NBA veterans. Him and Roy should be deadly running the pick and roll, especially with the amount of shooters/scorers Portland can put around them. Although Oden's post moves are not refined, his ability to establish position should allow him to get to spots in which he is comfortable. With that said, Oden will shine the brightest on defense. His presence alone is going to change the way opponents are ABLE to attack the Trailblazers. His athleticism and shot blocking ability will be unmatched. Only foul trouble and a cautious Nate McMillan will keep him under 3 blocks per game. His numbers and the fact that Portland will most likely exceed the modest expectations of the NBA media minds will put him at the front of the race. He will also get plenty of national TV time to make his case.


The Producer - Micheal Beasley
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After dominating college basketball, it seemed a forgone conclusion the Beasley would be the #1 pick until Derrick Rose put on a show in the NCAA tournament. Rose was also helped by the fact that his hometown team got the #1 pick. However, it must be said that Beasley's reputation might of cost him the #1 pick in the mind of quite a few NBA executives. Known as more of a prankster than a gangster, Beasley's NBA career is already off to a dubious start. However, the negatives do not overshadow the positives Beasley will bring to Miami. Beasley is a flat out scoring machine. Beasley gets buckets in bunches. His offense is diverse. He can finish well with either hand. As an undersized power forward, he has shown an ability to post up bigger players. He has the skill to also take bigger power forwards off the dribble and enough of a handle and athleticism to get away with spot minutes at small forward where he would be able to punish most in the paint. Beasley has a set of vacuums for hands and catches everything around him. This also works for him when rebounding. He should be long, strong and athletic enough to make an impact on the boards even as a rookie. The best thing about being in Miami for Beasley is the presence of a rejuvenated and healthy Dwyane Wade. This allows Beasley to play off of a superior scorer and relieves him of any leadership duties he would have found on most lottery teams. This means that Beasley will rarely face the double teams he would have in another city.

The Phenom - O. J. Mayo

Mayo has been in the spotlight for what seems like a decade to those that follow college hoops recruiting. Billed as the next LeBron James, his lack of over the top athleticism will probably keep him from reach those heights. However, it can't be said that Mayo lacks the skill. Perhaps one of the deadliest shooting strokes of a top notch prospect in quite some time, Mayo should open up the lane for Pau...err Marc Gasol. Most of Mayo's previous billing was due to him being projected as a big point guard. However, at USC he excelled as a shooting guard and in Memphis he will be asked to step into the role vacated by Mike Miller. In summer league, Mayo was allowed to run the point and that was met with disappointing results. He seemed to turn the ball over and lack the understanding on how to run an offense. However, the Memphis summer league (back to back to back to back to back) was not a proper venue to judge his future ability to transition to the point. With the glut of point guards in Memphis at this time, I think most of Mayo's time will be spent at shooting guard where there is a big hole for playing time and shot attempts. The departure of Miller and Juan Carlos Navarro, leave 20 shot attempts and about 51 minutes available at shooting guard. You do the math. Mayo will have the opportunity to produce big time numbers if he is capable and history has shown him to be an elite player on every level he has played. His lack of national exposure will hurt against the top 2 guys but his cult like Internet following will drum up some buzz if he is producing.


The Homeboy - Derrick Rose
It might seem that Rose will be facing a minute crunch and with Ben Gordon's situation unresolved, he might. However, Rose was the #1 pick for a reason...his athletic tools. Rose is probably the most breath taking fast break engineer since a young Jason Kidd hit the NBA. His speed with the ball is unmatched, even by players much smaller than him. His off the charts jumping and finishing ability allow him to play the role of the one man fast break. I expect that once Gordon is signed that Chicago will make moves to clear up the logjam in the backcourt to allow Rose to get his feet wet. Keeping Kirk Hinrich should ease Rose's transition into the NBA, as he will be allowed to play off the ball some and learn something from Hinrich on defensive intensity. Rose should be a triple double threat if given 30 minutes a night because he is a very good rebounder for a guard. If his shot comes around like it started to in college and he avoids injury, by virtue of being the #1 pick, Rose has a shot.


The Underdog - Kevin Love


Just looking at Kevin Love,you would think he was an end of the 1st round type of guy...that is until the game begins. Once on the floor in a team setting, Love starts to shine. His feel for the game is uncanny. He has become an outlet passing and halfcourt shot making legend. However, don't confuse Love with being a hustle player. He is a highly skilled offensive machine. Capable of taking college players in the post, he has to show that will translate to the NBA. His jump shot will easily translate, as will his rebounding ability. Although, Love and Al Jefferson seem an odd fit, I think there will be some games that their relentlessness on the glass will simply overwhelm opponents. Randy Foy's return to health and the addition of Mike Miller to the Timberwolves should give Love and Jefferson plenty of room to operate on the inside. The attention Jefferson will get via double teams should allow Love to wreak havoc on the weakside boards. The new NBA trend of "going small" will get punished by these two on the glass. It simply won't be a viable option if the Timberwolves can devise a defensive scheme to protect Love from small forwards masking as power forwards. Seeing how Al Horford was able to produce at center last year for the Hawks makes me optimistic that Loves game will translate just fine to the NBA. Look for him to make a run at averaging a double double as a rookie with good assist numbers.



Just Missed the Cut:


Russell Westbrook - Will have to navigate his way though Earl Watson for playing time. If allowed to play, he would have an outside chance.

Danilo Gallinari - Experienced pro. Will he be healthy enough to get acclimated in training camp?

Jerryd Bayless/Rudy Fernandez - Portland's depth and lack of shots will hurt them, not talent.

Marc Gasol - If Darko is traded to New York then he moves into the top 5.

Eric Gordon - Will Baron Davis groom him to be another Montae Ellis? He definitely has the ability to put up numbers.

Complete the Culture Change: Add Toughness

When I first started calling for the Pau Gasol to traded, it was because I truly thought that the Memphis Grizzlies needed to establish a new identity. With Gasol as the best player on the team, the Grizz were always going to play and be seen as a finesse team in the NBA that did not defend very well. Heck, he went to the Lakers and that is now their identity minus Kobe. Tonight is the 2008 NBA Draft. This means that this is truly the beginning of the post-Pau Gasol era. Chris Wallace is the first GM in Grizzlies history with an ability to take the franchise in a different direction. For me, that direction should begin and end with toughness.

With Rudy Gay establishing himself as a legit top 3 option in the NBA, the Grizzlies do not have any more room for players that need to develop either physical or mental toughness. Every player they add to the roster has to be either physically imposing, mentally tough, or both. There is no room for mentally fragile or physically immature players at this time. Similar to Utah, which is not a good defensive team, establishing your physicality can lead to improvement in the win/loss column. Toughness is mental. Some players have it and some do not. That is why Chris Wallace will establish our identity by the roster moves he makes this offseason...starting tonight with the 2008 NBA Draft.

So which players are in this draft do I think can help the Grizzlies establish an identity of toughness on the court:

1. Micheal Beasley - You can question his off the court antics if you want but when he laces up his shoes he is a beast. Wants contact on the inside. Might not be the defender people want him to be but neither is Carlos Boozer. Will be a double digit rebounder as a rookie. He just gets it done.

2. O. J. Mayo - He would totally transform the mentality of the Grizzlies. Mentally and physically tough and gets after it on defense. Very driven player. For better or for worse, he would be the dominant personality on the Grizzlies and he and Conley would form a dynamic backcourt for the next decade.

3. Kevin Love - Another guy who does not shy away from contact. Like the two players above him, Love brings a high level of skill along with his toughness. He just knows how to play. Not the greatest athlete but like ex-Grizz Battier, he will make up for it by knowing where to be on the court.

4. Danilo Gallinari - A tough Euro? Yes. Gallinari is unlike a lot of recent imports into the NBA. At 19, he was the number option on his Euroleague team and excelled in that role. Like Mayo and Love, he might not be the best athlete for his position but his mental toughness is at the top of the charts. Highly skilled for his position. Supposedly measured 6'10 in socks.

5. Joe Alexander - This late bloomer might be the best athlete in the draft. His awareness has not caught up with his physical gifts but he was highly productive in a major conference. Probably not an All Star but he his work ethic and mental make up is unreal.

6. Roy Hibbert - Shocked? If you watched his college career, you shouldn't be. Hibbert is an imposing player at 7'2 and 280 lbs. Unlike a lot of other more athletic bigs in this draft, Hibbert knows how to play basketball. He is slow of foot but can score enough that teams will have to account for him on offense. Plus he is a winner.

7. Courtney Lee - I had the pleasure of watching him workout and he is as athletic as anyone in this draft. I am not talking combine athlete. I am talking game time athlete. Gets tough rebounds in traffic and shows himself to be mentally tough as well. Very productive player in college. I think he could come in and give 20 minutes a game to any team in the league from day 1.

8. J.J. Hickson - He is young and physically imposing plus he has good hands. Not as skilled as some others on this list but he knows where his game is located...in the paint. He will be knocking people around in this league for the next 15 years.

9. D.J. White - Another player that understands his limitations. He will also earn his money in the paint. Good shotblocker for his size and has a very mature game. Only thing keeping him from a lock in the 1st round is injury concerns.

10. Jamont Gordon - I know the Grizzlies do not have a need at PG at this time but if Lowry, Conley or both are traded, Gordon could become an option at the end of the 1st round. He is the size of Eric Gordon but plays point guard at 6'3 and 230lbs. Very athletic and skilled. He is just a tough nose, get after it kind of player. He will be in some teams rotation next year and I would not be shocked to see him taken at the end of the 1st round.

Now obviously there are some other players that could add some toughness to the Grizzlies roster but these are the 10 I would not mind seeing in a Grizzlies uniform. The draft is just part of the equation of adding toughness. If Marc Gasol is not traded then he also will add some much needed toughness and skill to our front line. The whole mental makeup of the roster has to change. We need to go from a soft running team that does not defend well to a physical running team that plays hard at all times. This mentality must come from the coaching staff (iffy) and flow through the entire roster.

To Beasley or Not To Beasley -- That is the Question

While reading Geoff Calkins' column in the Commercial Appeal this morning, something kept rattling around in my head. No, it wasn't the loose screw that many people have warned me about. It was an idea -- nay, a vision. A vision of what the future could be. It is a future that includes lots of winning seasons, followed by playoff success and even some title aspirations down the road.

Calkins' piece focuses on the acquisition of Kansas State's Michael Beasley, who was an absolute monster in college and projects to be a tremendous player at the next level as a tweener forward with good rebounding ability and above average range on the offensive end. Calkins thinks that there is one thing the Grizzlies need and one thing only.

But here's the thing: The Grizzlies need more than a perfectly good, defensible pick at No. 5. They need a star, a perennial All-Star and, gee, Chris Wallace, are any of those available in this draft?

So, the Grizzlies need not just a star, but a perennial All-Star to boot, out of this draft, do they? A guy that is a winner, a leader, a marketable star that will bring fans to the FedEx Forum and bring attention from around the league, and get loads of pundits on ESPN to talk about him and show Sportscenter highlights of him. That is what is needed, right? They need the next LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant.

Calkins does a very good job of illustrating all the reasons why the Memphis Grizzlies should not "settle" for the "0% chance he's a bust" Kevin Love at the #5 spot in the draft and should instead focus on doing whatever is necessary to trade up to the Miami Heat's #2 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft in order to grab Michael Beasley. In fact, there is but one hitch in his proposal. That hitch is that the Heat are reportedly after O.J. Mayo and would like to trade down to acquire him, rather than watch Pat Riley's head explode dealing with Beasley's questionable maturity. So, if O.J. Mayo is still there at #5, then the Grizzlies could trade him, along with Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry to Miami for the #2 pick (Beasley) and the services of Mark Blount and Marcus Banks to make the salaries match up.

Is that a smart deal though? I mean, both Miller and Lowry are fan favorites, as well as solid contributors at the NBA level. O.J. Mayo has been projected to be an amazing player in his own right at the next level. So that's Mayo/Miller/Lowry for Beasley/Blount/Banks for those of you keeping score at home. That's 3 solid contributors for 1 potential All-Star, 1 bad contract and 1 point guard who logs a lot of playing time for losers, but not for winning clubs. Why not just keep Mayo, if that is the case? Hasn't he been "The Next Big Thing" since he was in the 7th grade? Was the move from PG to SG that detrimental to his overall ability?


Some of you may remember that I was pretty hard on Mayo in a previous post. After talking to a few people who know far more about scouting talent than myself, I have softened my stance on him somewhat. They feel that Mayo, not Beasley, is more likely to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA. There are numerous things that Beasley was able to do in college that he won't be able to duplicate at the next level unless he is the second coming of Charles Barkley. Supposedly, that won't be the case for Mayo, who (like Kevin Love) already had a game predicated on playing at the highest level in the world. If the Grizzlies are so fortunate as to have him fall in their laps at #5, then why wouldn't they just take him and use Miller/Lowry in a trade for yet another quality player? Wouldn't that make more sense? Just checking.

For me, this basically boils down to whether or not Michael Beasley > O.J. Mayo. If Beasley truly is the next Kobe Bryant level talent, then I am 100% behind moving up to take him. Why is Miami so eager to get rid of him then? Shouldn't the real question be, why doesn't Miami just take Mayo at #2? Because they want to gain more assets by getting someone to trade up for somebody that they aren't going to draft anyways. You don't think that Pat Riley got all those shiny baubles on his fingers by showing his entire hand this early in the game, do you? If they want O.J., then they can bloody well draft him at #2. If they want Beasley, then there he is. I can't understand why the Grizzlies should bolster the overall talent level of the Heat (again) so that they can draft the next Antawn Jamison (my prediction for Beasley's career).


If O.J. Mayo is there at #5, then I'd like to think that Chris Wallace will take him, given that he has the chance to be that All-Star player that Memphis is so desperately wanting, needing, begging for. If Mayo is gone (as I expect him to be), then why not take Kevin Love (who I know worked out for the Heat, but don't believe that they intend to trade down to get), who has been described as everything from "a bigger and better Shane Battier" to a unique hybrid of Elton Brand and Bill Laimbeer? Geoff Calkins' co-host on their 730 ESPN morning radio show, Gary Parrish, has repeatedly said that Love might not ever been an All-Star, but he will be a solid starter for his entire career and that there is virtually no chance that he'll be anything remotely resembling a "bust".


If those are the choices that are laid before me, then I say "No" to Beasley at that price and "Yes" to either Mayo or Love. Then the question becomes, what if the draft goes Rose, Mayo, Beasley, Love....then what? That's a post for another day, but I'll leave a poll up to gauge your thoughts.

Update: Chris Herrington has his own thoughts about trading for Beasley on Beyond the Arc.

Number Five is Alive!

A few thoughts on the draft lottery, if you will.

I know that several fans are unhappy with the results of Tuesday night's NBA Draft Lottery. I'm not among them. In fact, when Chip asked me what my preference was prior to the lottery taking place, I told him that I wanted the #2 or #5 pick. My reasoning for the #2 is simple and should be obvious: With the #2 pick, the Grizzlies get to select whoever remains from Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose. I know that most teams (other than Minnesota, who doesn't need a PF like Beasley) would be happy with either of those players, despite what Pat Riley has intimated about trading the pick if Derrick Rose isn't there (total poppycock, by the way -- more on that later).

If the Grizzlies had been fortunate enough to receive that pick, then the decision would have effectively been made for them, similar to how Seattle recently wound up with Kevin Durant, after Portland selected Greg Oden #1 overall. Of course, having the #1 pick would have had a lot of extra pressure given that Derrick Rose is Memphis' favorite son after leading the Tigers to the national title game less than two months ago. The Grizzlies selected Mike Conley with the #4 pick last year and took Kyle Lowry with the #24 pick the year before that, so they have some quality PG's already on the roster. At the risk of drawing Zack's ire, I'll also mention that both Javaris Crittenton and Juan Carlos Navarro are capable of filling in at PG if needed, in my opinion. So if there is one position that the Grizzlies shouldn't be looking at when assessing their draft needs, Point Guard is that area. I know that some people will clamor that there is no way you can pass up a "potential Hall of Famer" just because you have a good, young player already at that position. I agree with that stance -- I just disagree that Derrick Rose fits that label. (Ducking beer bottles being chucked at me by Tiger fans everywhere.) My evaluation of Rose is that he will be a great player in the league for the next decade, but I do not believe that he will be the Top 5 player overall that so many fans have rated him to be already. I'll gladly go point-by-point on his strengths and weaknesses in my pre-draft rankings that will be coming soon, so save your howls and jeers for that future post.

Now that we have that out of the way, let me explain why I wanted the #5 pick, instead of the #3 or #4. There are two players currently being rated in the Top 10 by many draft sites and experts that scare the ever-lovin' crap out of me: Brook Lopez and O.J. Mayo. I said in a previous post that when I look at Brook Lopez, I see a solid starter, but nothing special -- certainly nothing transcendent that is worthy of a top five selection. Lopez's game is based upon achieving great positioning around the basket. He was able to do that in college due to having superior size to many of his opponents, but the NBA is full of guys that are every bit as big and strong as he is. He won't be Michael Olowokandi, Eric Montross, Cherokee Parks or Jerome James, as he does possess some quality basketball skills, but he's not going to be David Robinson either. I see him being a solid big man like Zydrunas Ilgauskas as a best case scenario. If he can concentrate on rebounding and develop the wide range of offensive moves that Big Z has, then he could wind up matching his career averages of 14.5 ppg and 7.9 rpg, which is a very solid career indeed.

I also said that when I look at O.J. Mayo, I see Steve Francis. Stevie Franchise was a great player at one time -- but he was never a "winner". He put up tremendous stats for the first 7 seasons of his career, but the fact remains that Houston got markedly better and Orlando got noticeably worse after the Francis for McGrady trade. I see several of the same attributes in Mayo that I witnessed in Francis, both in terms of skillset and personality. With the right mix of players and coaches surrounding him, Mayo could turn out to be a tremendous, MVP-level player. But unless that "perfect scenario" happens, I don't see it happening and would rather not have this franchise set back by making the wrong choice with another high lottery pick. We already selected Steve Francis once -- remember?

Earlier, I said that Riley's assertion that he would be open to trading the pick if Rose wasn't available, because "they have a pretty good PF" already was ludicrous. Here's why: Shawn Marion is a great all-around player, let there be no doubt about that. Even if he doesn't opt out of the last year of his contract, Shawn Marion just turned 30 years old this month and there have been whispers about his athleticism starting to wane, which is a very bad thing for a player whose game is predicated on being more athletic than an overwhelming majority of his opponents. Furthermore, why wouldn't a team want to take the talented Michael Beasley, who appears to be capable of playing either forward position, meaning that the Heat could trot out Wade/Beasley/Marion in the same lineup if they desired. Of course, I fully expect the Chicago Bulls to take Beasley at #1 overall, so Miami will likely get the player they appear to covet, which will (as usual) render all my ramblings meaningless. The point is, either Pat Riley is full of mularkey or he truly has gone insane and believes that he'll be able to duplicate what the Boston Celtics did this past offseason in turning the worst team in the Eastern Conference into a title contender practically overnight. At this juncture, I'd make that bet a 50-50 proposition, since the hair gel has to be affecting his brain waves by now.

Rest assured, we'll have plenty of player evaluations, mock drafts and the always entertaining "what Team X should do/what Team X will do" posts for the next month. And, of course, I'll be sure to talk endlessly about who I think the Grizzlies should select with each pick or if they might be better off trading down. Make sure to vote in the polls on the right-hand sidebar so that we know who you think the "right" pick is and, as always, let me know what you think in the Comments.