If...

With the greatest respect to Rudyard Kipling and his famous poem 'If' I present...

the Grizzlies If of 2008.

If Conley can keep his head when all the fans about him
Are losing theirs and blaming it on him,
If Gasol can trust himself when all the fans doubt him
But understand their doubting too,

If Darko can compete and not be slowed by the horrible schedule,
Or being booed, not lower his head,
Or being hated, not give way to pouting,
And yet don't get too worried Or get down on himself:

If JCritt can dream--and not make dreams his master,
If Lowry can pass--and not yet not make passing his aim;
If the Rookies accept both wins and losses
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If Iavaroni can bear to hear the truth he's spoken
Twisted by media types (including bloggers),
And keep the positive message in front of the team

If Mayo can make one shot at the end of a game
And not let previous failures scare him away,
And if he misses, start again believing in himself
And never breath a word about the miss;

If Hakim can force his heart and nerve and sinew
To defend long after he thinks he has to,
And to hold onto the rebound when there is nothing left in him
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If Adriana Lima can talk with crowds and sign autographs,
And the team can finally beat the Kings in that Damn Arco Arena,
If neither ugly fans nor loving friends can affect Rudy's focus,
If the team knows it can count with him, but not too much,

If the Grizzlies can fill the unforgiving shot clock
With 24 seconds' worth of passionate defense,
Yours is Memphis and everything that's in it,

And--which is more--you'll be winners, my boys!

Why Do We Watch?

Thanks to Herm Edwards, we know why they play the games, but why do we, the fans, watch the games? Is it for the athleticism that is turned into artistic grace and poetry, as espoused so eloquently by Graydon Gordian (48 Minutes of Hell, Hardwood Paroxysm)? Is our attention drawn because we grew up watching, as our fathers did before us, so it has become ingrained in us? Do we watch simply to root for laundry, as Jerry Seinfeld once quipped when discussing the prevalence of player movement in the modern era? Do we watch for the purpose of gathering and calculating statistics? Is it merely a team's geographical proximity to our current location? What is it that drives us to become fans of a player, a team, a sport?

Obviously, it could be any one of those reasons or even all of them. Loyalty is developed in different ways for different people. The reason that I am currently pondering this question is because of the cynicism that the Grizzlies fanbase has adopted in recent years. Right now, on the Grizzlies' Fan Boards, there is plenty of discussion about "smokescreens" and conspiracy theories. On many well-known websites and blogs, there have been comments made about the Grizzlies' reluctance to pursue any of the big name free agents, despite their position as the last remaining team with any significant cap space, is a "detriment to the league" and is proof that they "do not intend to be competitive". All of this has been eaten up with a spoon by a large percentage of the fanbase, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out why.

If you truly believe that your favorite team isn't making moves to better itself in the future, with the goal of a realistic shot at a championship in the viewfinder, then why would you continue to root for that team? If financial considerations are not only the primary concern of a team, as Chris Vernon has stated, but is, in fact, their only concern, then what would motivate you to continue rooting for that team? If you truly believe that your team's owner, GM, coach, et al, have resigned themselves to losing for the forseeable future, then why would you stay on board a sinking ship?


Is Michael Heisley focusing on losing less money than he has in the past -- and possibly even making some for a change? Absolutely. Does that mean that the Grizzlies are guaranteed to flounder at the bottom of the standings? Nope. The issue I have right now is that it seems that everyone wants to lump both questions into one answer. Even if Heisley is more concerned with the bottom line than a position at the bottom of the standings once again, that doesn't mean that the Grizzlies won't get better. This isn't an either/or situation. In fact, that's something that I believe that Heisley is counting on.

If the team becomes competitive over the next few seasons through Chris Wallace's management of personnel with trades and the draft, then Heisley has a valid reason to spend money on a quality free agent that could put the team in a position to make a serious postseason run. Of course, if the team has done that with "homegrown players" like Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, etc. then they will have to sign them to extensions, which could take a big chunk of that cap space that everyone is talking about right now. If that occurs, then Heisley still has an out for not spending, since the team, which currently has 8 players under the age of 24 that are expected to contribute, could be solidly set at all 5 positions, meaning there isn't a necessity to spend money on a big name free agent. I'm not saying any of this to support Heisley's "Three Year Plan" or the practice of putting finances above wins. However, this is a reality that everyone should consider when they look deep within and ask themselves why they watch.

I watch, because the NBA = entertainment. I watch to see the best athletes in the world, night in and night out. I watch because the jersey says "Memphis" on the front of it and the team plays 20 minutes from my house. I watch because I expect great things from young players. I watch because I truly, honestly believe that this team will continue to get better, whether or not the current owner gives approval to signing a big free agent this offseason or next. I watch, because for better or for worse, I am a fan, even as I view the future of the team with a critical (but not cynical) eye.

Tell me why you watch in the Comments.

What Will Mike Be Like?

We've all heard the phrase 'If I could be like Mike.' Well we at 3 Shades of Blue decided to take a more local look at that phrase and to think 'what will Mike be like' this season?

This topic was discussed on the Grizzlies message board but it seemed to devolve into a typical player fan arguement. I thought I would instead take a more objective view of the situation on the blog.

Does anyone remember how Rudy performed as a rookie and what his statistics were?

I looked it up to make sure I was remembering things correctly. Rudy played 2,103 minutes as a rookie despite fans being critical he wasn't getting enough playing time. I remember one poster in particular complaining about Barone every time he took Rudy out of a game because Tony had said in his first press conference that he would let Rudy 'die on the floor before taking him out.' Rudy averaged 27 mpg and 10.8 ppg while grabbing 4.5 rpg and 1.3 apg. Not bad numbers for a rookie SF.

Conley played on 1,381 minutes as a rookie yet the same poster who criticized the Grizzlies for not playing Rudy enough complained that the Grizzlies played Conley too much. Despite the fewer minutes played in total Conley also played fewer minutes per game (26.1) yet still averaged 9.4 ppg. 2.6 rpg and 4.2 apg. So after playing in fewer games and fewer minutes per game, Conley's numbers looked very similiar to Rudy's rookie season. One should also remember that Mike was a year younger than Rudy when he entered the leauge and two years younger in physical development.

Mike however has not been as dominating in his 2nd summer league as Rudy was in his his. Perhaps this is from the plethora of PG's or PG wanna-be's on the team. Perhaps this is from Conley not pushing the action enough (which could be an off-shoot of the terrible schedule the team has played). Perhaps this is do to the difficulty of playing the point. There is a big difference from initiating the offense and calling defensive sets at the point and simply trying to score from the small forward spot after all.

I don't know why but I haven't seen the progression yet from his rookie to sophomore seasons but all of the above reasons have had an effect. This doesn't mean Conley is incapable of improving according to his position in a similiar manner to Rudy's progression at Small Forward but it probably would require a move in the roster to free up Conley to play up to the mid 30's in minutes like Rudy did his sophomore season. That would involve a roster move to eliminate the person taking those extra 10 minutes a night of playing time. I am not suggesting the Grizzlies actually move Kyle Lowry. I just believe that the Grizzlies can't expect Conely to average fewer than 35 minutes a game and still see a dramatic improvement in his game.

Personally I don't believe Conley will make the same impact Rudy did in his second season. Conley has to contend with Kyle Lowry and OJ Mayo, both who are extremely talented and want his job, as well as the pressure of being a 20 yr old leader on the court. Rudy was a leader by scoring. Conley has to elevate the games of his teammates and this is much harder to achieve for a 20 yr old 2nd yr player. That is not to say that Conley will be a disappointment. I fully expect him to be a good contributor. I am just unsure he will establish himself among the elite players from his draft by the end of this season.

And that will probably leave some people disappointed.



Getting cheap airline tickets to the hawaiian airlines or even the aloha airlines is not a problem anymore, ever since northwest airline got way too expensive.

Tsunami in Memphis

Wikipedia defines a tsunami as: a series of waves created when a body of water, such as an ocean, is rapidly displaced. Basically what occurs is that an earthquake causes the ocean floor to drop at a certain point, while raising it at another point, causing the temporary displacement of water. As a result of this, the water is sucked back from the shoreline to fill that point where there is a void, revealing areas that are normally completely submerged, only it then returns to the shore, because the water is only displaced temporarily. The incoming water is the tsunami, which destroys everything in its path and often arrives with little to no warning.

I can see people rolling their eyes right now. "First, he talks about astronomy and now we get a lesson on geology and oceanography?" Calm down -- I'll bring it back to the NBA, just you watch.

The Earthquake: Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers

When Gasol was traded, the shock wave was felt throughout the league. Everyone knew that something major had just occurred and that something had to be done as a result of it. Over the next few weeks, Phoenix trades for Shaq and Dallas trades for Kidd in an attempt to keep up. The Grizzlies hunker down to play out the rest of their season amid the chaos they helped to create.

The Water Recedes: The remaining Grizzlies show what they are made of.

When the water pulls back, it reveals portions of the shoreline that would otherwise be submerged, allowing you a better understanding of what was beneath the surface. In the case of some players, they responded positively, as Rudy, Conley, Kyle and Hakim all had productive 2nd halves. Others showed that they are still the same player that they have always been, which was the case for Mike Miller, Kwame Brown, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins. This isn't to say that these are bad players, but there isn't a lot of untapped potential for them to draw on, as there was for the younger players. There are still a few unknowns at this point in Javaris Crittenton and Darko Milicic, but the franchise got a good read on the team overall. This provided the Grizzlies with valuable information that they needed going into the offseason with 2 first round picks and a substantial amount of cap space.


The Water Crests: Draft Night 2008

When Chris Wallace made the two trades on draft night, netting O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur, the organization did everything in its power to restore hope to a fanbase desperate for a reason to continue believing in this team. Rather than taking the "safe approach" of drafting Kevin Love and Chris Douglas-Roberts, he took a chance on greater potential, which netted him Mayo and Arthur. At this point, the water has reached maximum stored energy. Now the team is left to release that energy upon the rest of the league.


The Tsunami: Playoff Success

I don't expect it to happen overnight -- or even in the next 2 seasons -- but I do expect it to happen sooner than many might have considered. With another good draft and a smart signing or two, the Grizzlies could release all that stored energy and potential upon the league with the same fury that the Hornets displayed this postseason, making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. I look to what New Orleans and Portland have been able to do by collecting young talent in the draft and making timely signings of solid veterans, while not grossly overpaying for glorified role players. This is the model that Memphis should be adhering to, as they implement their plan to return to the playoffs, not just as a mere participant, but as a team to be reckoned with -- a team that other teams do not want to face in the first round. At that point, they will be an unstoppable force. They will have achieved tsunami status.

The Case for Not Trading a Point Guard

There has been a lot of discussion among Grizzlies fans about the apparent logjam at Point Guard on the team and how Memphis needs to make a move immediately to address this problem. I disagree and for some simple reasons.

First off Conley is only 20 yrs old and has started a grand total of 46 games in the NBA. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement to give him the keys to the franchise. Sure his statistics almost mirror Tony Parker's when he was a rookie and are actually superior to such prominent PG's as Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash as rookies but that doesn't mean you can stamp the future All-Star label on Mike just yet. Lowry doesn't have much more experience after only playing 10 games his rookie season. Right now it appears Conley will be the superior PG in the NBA to some people but he hasn't shown that on the court yet. There is no reason to rush the decision before someone has clearly won the job.

OJ Mayo is a dynamic player who has stated that he feels his best position is PG. That doesn't mean he is right and from what we have seen so far that is simply not the case. Mayo is a scorer who struggles against quick PG's and makes bad decisions at times when pressured with the ball. He may develop into an excellent PG at some point but right now he is a turnover waiting to happen.

Javaris Crittenton is similiar to OJ Mayo without the outside shot. He has excellent size to be a PG (compared to the dimunitive Conley and Lowry) but his ability to control the ball and run the offense hasn't develop yet. He also doesn't appear to NBA level vision when driving in the lane. A PG can always drive in the lane and shoot but to be a truly effective PG you need to get into the lane and then find the open man as the defense collapses. So far I haven't seen Crittenton capable of making that play.

Jaric can play PG, SG and SF. He is very versatile in that respect. He came over playing PG but last season he was almost exclusively a SG and at 6-7 he has decent size to play SF. Frankly with his lack of foot speed I feel more comfortable playing Jaric as a SG/SF than at the point. Jaric will bring experience and knowledge to the young guards on the team and that is important. His role is clearly more mentor than player at this point.

What's more, Lowry and Conley give the Grizzlies two different PG skill sets that most teams will struggle matching up against. Right now JCritt and Mayo don't appear to take care of the ball well enough to run the point but both can defend well at the SG and allow the Grizzlies to add more playmaking ability to the backcourt.

This doesn't even take into account the serious problem the Grizzlies have had lately keeping Point Guards healthy. In 2005 Damon blew his Patello Tendon out. In 2006 Kyle Lowry broke his thumb and missed the remained of the season. Last year Mike Conley hurt his shoulder and missed a total of 30 games. It isn't like the Grizzlies haven't had a big need for strong backups at the point lately.

At some point in the future I expect at least one of the backcourt players to be moved to fil a hole in another part of the team but that definitely doesn't mean they have to make a move right now.

The 'Toine Factor

While there has been a ton of hours logged discussing the various aspects of the draft night trade that saw O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love change franchises, most of it has focused on those two players and sharpshooter Mike Miller while ignoring the other pieces in the transaction. Jason Collins should be a solid backup for the T'Wolves, while Brian Cardinal fills the need for a "token white guy" at the end of the bench. Just kidding BC -- you know we love you and think that you'll make a great coach after your playing career is over. For Memphis, Greg Buckner will supply solid defense on the perimeter and Marko Jaric will bring one of the hottest women on the planet to our fair city. What's that? Jaric can play 3 positions? Bonus!!!

The one guy that seems to have slipped through the cracks as nothing more than a throw-in salary that will likely be unceremoniously bought out and left to the winds of free agency is Antoine Devon Walker.

You remember this guy, right? Talented, easy-going, fun-loving.....and in shape. Now just think about what could happen if he showed up in Memphis with that same mindset, that same hunger and desire to win. A tantalizing dream, isn't it? Not only could he start at PF, but he could also be a veteran influence who knows how to win on the biggest of stages. That would be quite a coup for a team full of young players that need someone who has already been through the pains and struggles of climbing the mountain. I'm not saying that 'Toine will turn into a shining example of leadership overnight, but if he wants to play in the NBA beyond this season, then he's going to have to prove to the league that he hasn't become satisfied since winning a title with the Miami Heat in 2006.

Of course, perhaps he has reached the top of the mountain and feels that there is nothing left to accomplish. Even people who know him well have hinted that Walker isn't focused on playing and just seems to be going through the motions -- coasting, as it were.

The reason I bring this up is because Walker's mindset and approach to this season will probably determine who truly got the better end of the trade. Minnesota received two starters (Miller and Love) and one contributing role player (Collins). Memphis got one starter (Mayo), two contributing role players (Buckner and Jaric) and one big question mark (Walker). If that question mark becomes an exclamation point, then the Grizzlies can confidently say that they "won" the trade. It's your move 'Toine -- will it be a Shimmy or a slow dance?

O.J. Mayo -- Guiding Star or Solar Flare?

Guiding star (Polaris): Polaris more commonly known as the North(ern) Star or the Pole Star, and sometimes known as the Lodestar, is the brightest star in the constellation Ursa Minor. It is very close to the north celestial pole making it the current northern pole star. (Wikipedia)

Nearly everyone in the Memphis area has seen the North Star at some point or another in their lifetime. It is the brightest star you can see at night and your attention is drawn to it, almost as if by a tractor beam. It directs you north, even when other stars appear to be dim and hazy, as they change position from night to night. It is the star that the mariners of old used to guide them as they set out on voyages to circle the globe.

It is interesting to note that there is no South(ern) Star. That means that there is no star that will guide you down -- only up. That's how it is in the NBA as well. Real stars lead you upwards, out of the muck and the mire, towards greater things. They don't drag you down into the mud -- they pull you out of it.


Solar flare: A flare is defined as a sudden, rapid, and intense variation in brightness.

Solar flares are rarely seen by the naked eye, but they are very common and have a negligible effect on our weather here on Earth. A flare is violent, but brief -- more of a hiccup than a seizure. Flares vary in their occurrence, as they are very inconsistent, and therefore hard to track unless you are willing to observe the sun relentlessly.

The NBA has had its share of solar flares, as well. Most teams have had "the next great thing" pass through their organization at some point or another. That player might be better served as a complementary piece to a "real star" or he could have other issues that lead him to never fulfill his potential, such as attitude or injuries. Some of these flares focus on individual goals of money and fame (leading to infamy in many cases), rather than team success. Needless to say, there are a lot more flares than stars in the NBA each and every year.

What will O.J. Mayo be in his tenure with the Memphis Grizzlies? He has the talent and potential to be one of the greatest players to ever wear an NBA uniform. He has been profiled in basketball magazines and websites since before junior high school and has been successful (to some degree or another) everywhere he has played. He could be the player that lifts the Memphis Grizzlies out of the backwoods swamp they currently inhabit.


Or, he could play out his rookie contract in Memphis with one eye on the bigger markets of New York, Los Angeles and Miami and bolt when the opportunity presents itself. He could be a franchise's savior or he could be a franchise's coffin nail. make no mistake about it -- trading away the consistency of Kevin Love for the promise of O.J. Mayo is the biggest risk/reward play that Memphis could afford to make in this draft (because there is no way they were trading Rudy Gay for Michael Beasley). This move will likely define the Memphis Grizzlies organization for the next decade.

One last note regarding astronomy: The North Star is actually a cluster of three stars, not just one. Given the success of Boston, San Antonio, Phoenix and others with "The Big Three" in recent seasons, it does give fans hope with the presence of Mike Conley and Rudy Gay flanking Mayo on the roster. As always, we'll have to wait and see what happens to make the final determination. I hope for the sake of Grizzlies fans that our newest star shines bright and true.

The Name Game

Tim Buckley (Deseret News via TrueHoop) had a column today about how everyone plays The Name Game with draft prospects. After all, you have to compare them to someone, right? Here is who I think some of the prospects will turn out like:

Michael Beasley = Antawn Jamison/Shawn Marion
Derrick Rose = Deron Williams/Allen Iverson/Kevin Johnson/Earl Monroe
O.J. Mayo = Gilbert Arenas/Steve Francis
Brook Lopez = Pau Gasol/Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Jerryd Bayless = Ben Gordon/Jay Williams
Kevin Love = Elton Brand/Karl Malone/Bill Laimbeer/Wes Unseld
Anthony Randolph = Charlie Villanueva
Eric Gordon = Michael Redd/Upgraded version of J.R. Smith
Danilo Gallinari = Toni Kukoc
DeAndre Jordan = Jerome James
D.J. Augustin = T.J. Ford (yeah, it's almost too easy, but it fits)
Russell Westbrook = Kenny Smith/John Starks
Joe Alexander = Josh Smith-lite
Brandon Rush = Eddie Jones/James Posey
Marreese Speights = Al Jefferson-lite
Chris Douglas-Roberts = Morris Peterson/Jerry Stackhouse-lite
Roy Hibbert = Eddy Curry

To Trade or Not To Trade...That is the Question

Whether tis nobler in the mind
to suffer The slings and arrows
of outrageous records,
Or to take arms
against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing - end them?
Hamlet, Act III

Okay, William Shakespeare never wrote that exactly but the feeling expressed in Hamlet's soliloquy does have some relevance to today's Memphis Grizzlies. Almost no one believes that with the #5 and #28 picks the team can change the struggles that have beset this franchise since their last winning season. Is a trade up or down in the draft going to help shuffle things enough to change the outlook, if not the actual record, of the team?

What about the players currently on the team? Are they to be immune from the exorcism of the devils haunting the franchise? Are they the sole reason for the team's unbearable current state? They are the most convenient scapegoats but who should take the fall for the current state of the franchise? Did the current roster have anything to do with the carousel of coaches (Lowe, Brown, Fratello and Iavaroni not to mention Hollins and Barone) over the last 6+ seasons? Should the players shoulder the blame for the rather bizarre behavior and decisions of Jerry West? Not that this matters now because it appears something must be done beyond adding two or three more rookies (#5, #28 and Marc Gasol) to the mix. Trading is the most obvious remedy.

Devoutly to be wish'd. To lose, to sleep;
To sleep, perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep what dreams of trades may come
Hamlet, Act I

More paraphrasing but indeed what dreams may come from a draft day trade?

Memphis has declared they are going to rebuild with youth. Michael Heisley said the team wants to build around their core of Conley, Lowry, Crittenton, Gay and Warrick (upon further prodding he also said that Darko is in that mix). Heisley also said that this doesn't mean that these players are going to stay with the Grizzlies. They could be used as pieces in a deal to bring in someone else that furthers the growth of the team. This seems logical since three of those players are considered point guards. So Memphis will use these players as their building blocks but those blocks may not be in the final design of the team. Trading seems to be the simplest way to build with these players but not have all of them be a part of the future.

Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are reported to be attending the Grizzlies Draft Party on Thursday night. It would appear that the team is committed to keeping that duo together until one separates himself from the other. The problem is that those two players appear to be the most desirable pieces in a trade. There is a fine line here between clearly establishing one player as the starter and diminsihing the value of the other. If the team is committed to one player then trading the other before his value drops makes sense. I just have a hard time seeing the Grizzlies inviting both players to the draft party only to trade one of them that night. Surely the Grizzlies wouldn't make such a faux pas as to invite a player to the draft party only to trade him during the event. The Grizzlies can't be that thoughtless of a young man's feelings. Can they?

So does that make Javaris Crittenton the odd man out? Could the player that the Grizzlies wanted from the Lakers be gone fewer than 6 months later? It seems unlikely that the team would give up on the 19 yr old (he won't turn 20 until December 31st) that quickly. Of course, it seemed inconceivable that the Grizzlies would give up on the Conley-Gasol pairing after only 15 starts together too. Yet that is exactly what the team did on Jan 29th. So is anyone safe with this franchise?

Mike Miller just made a major contribution to St. Judes Children's Hospital. Doesn't that gesture imply that he is going to remain in the city for at least a little longer despite Heisley not mentioning him as a player that the team is going to build around? Maybe, Maybe not. No Grizzlies player has been rumored to be on the block more than Mike Miller. Of course, without a viable alternative to replace Mike Miller in the starting lineup after Juan Carlos Navarro signed with FC Barcelona it would be a long shot to suppose Miller is traded on draft night. Then again the opportunity to draft a Eric Gordon or Danillo Gallinari may make such a trade more plausible. Miller's salary is a tad expensive for what he brings to the court but doesn't the team need someone who can bring veteran leadership to the team?

Alas! poor Warrick. I knew him
a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy; he hath borne me on his back a thousand times; and now, how abhorred in my imagination it is!
Hamlet, Act V

Now I don't abhor the time Hakim has spent in Memphis but at 26 Warrick is on the cusp of youth on a rebuilding team. His trade value would seem high (and that appears to be the only reason the Grizzlies drafted him anyway). The Grizzlies have brought in twice as many big men as guards for workouts this summer. That is a message that can't be ignored.

What could Hakim, the dreaded tweener, bring on the open market? Draft picks involve a high risk already. Would a proven veteran capable of scoring in double figures on any night be enough or too much to move up a few spots in the lottery? Wouldn't someone like Hakim be worth a mid to late lottery pick by himself? Remember that Chicago swapped picks #2 and 4 with Portland and only received Victor Kryapa in exchange just two years ago. Could Hakim and the 28th pick move the Grizzlies into the lottery?

One thing is known. Memphis is looking to create some excitement around this draft. They want to be players and create a buzz. This should be a very exciting draft to watch for the Memphis Grizzlies and their fans. Trades involve uncertainty and risk but they also could be the type of activity that gets people excited about future prospects.

Tis now the very witching time of night,
When churchyards yawn and hell itself breathes out
players to this world: now could I drink hot blood,
And do such business, as the day
Would quake to look on.
Hamlet, Act III

To Beasley or Not To Beasley -- That is the Question

While reading Geoff Calkins' column in the Commercial Appeal this morning, something kept rattling around in my head. No, it wasn't the loose screw that many people have warned me about. It was an idea -- nay, a vision. A vision of what the future could be. It is a future that includes lots of winning seasons, followed by playoff success and even some title aspirations down the road.

Calkins' piece focuses on the acquisition of Kansas State's Michael Beasley, who was an absolute monster in college and projects to be a tremendous player at the next level as a tweener forward with good rebounding ability and above average range on the offensive end. Calkins thinks that there is one thing the Grizzlies need and one thing only.

But here's the thing: The Grizzlies need more than a perfectly good, defensible pick at No. 5. They need a star, a perennial All-Star and, gee, Chris Wallace, are any of those available in this draft?

So, the Grizzlies need not just a star, but a perennial All-Star to boot, out of this draft, do they? A guy that is a winner, a leader, a marketable star that will bring fans to the FedEx Forum and bring attention from around the league, and get loads of pundits on ESPN to talk about him and show Sportscenter highlights of him. That is what is needed, right? They need the next LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant.

Calkins does a very good job of illustrating all the reasons why the Memphis Grizzlies should not "settle" for the "0% chance he's a bust" Kevin Love at the #5 spot in the draft and should instead focus on doing whatever is necessary to trade up to the Miami Heat's #2 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft in order to grab Michael Beasley. In fact, there is but one hitch in his proposal. That hitch is that the Heat are reportedly after O.J. Mayo and would like to trade down to acquire him, rather than watch Pat Riley's head explode dealing with Beasley's questionable maturity. So, if O.J. Mayo is still there at #5, then the Grizzlies could trade him, along with Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry to Miami for the #2 pick (Beasley) and the services of Mark Blount and Marcus Banks to make the salaries match up.

Is that a smart deal though? I mean, both Miller and Lowry are fan favorites, as well as solid contributors at the NBA level. O.J. Mayo has been projected to be an amazing player in his own right at the next level. So that's Mayo/Miller/Lowry for Beasley/Blount/Banks for those of you keeping score at home. That's 3 solid contributors for 1 potential All-Star, 1 bad contract and 1 point guard who logs a lot of playing time for losers, but not for winning clubs. Why not just keep Mayo, if that is the case? Hasn't he been "The Next Big Thing" since he was in the 7th grade? Was the move from PG to SG that detrimental to his overall ability?


Some of you may remember that I was pretty hard on Mayo in a previous post. After talking to a few people who know far more about scouting talent than myself, I have softened my stance on him somewhat. They feel that Mayo, not Beasley, is more likely to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA. There are numerous things that Beasley was able to do in college that he won't be able to duplicate at the next level unless he is the second coming of Charles Barkley. Supposedly, that won't be the case for Mayo, who (like Kevin Love) already had a game predicated on playing at the highest level in the world. If the Grizzlies are so fortunate as to have him fall in their laps at #5, then why wouldn't they just take him and use Miller/Lowry in a trade for yet another quality player? Wouldn't that make more sense? Just checking.

For me, this basically boils down to whether or not Michael Beasley > O.J. Mayo. If Beasley truly is the next Kobe Bryant level talent, then I am 100% behind moving up to take him. Why is Miami so eager to get rid of him then? Shouldn't the real question be, why doesn't Miami just take Mayo at #2? Because they want to gain more assets by getting someone to trade up for somebody that they aren't going to draft anyways. You don't think that Pat Riley got all those shiny baubles on his fingers by showing his entire hand this early in the game, do you? If they want O.J., then they can bloody well draft him at #2. If they want Beasley, then there he is. I can't understand why the Grizzlies should bolster the overall talent level of the Heat (again) so that they can draft the next Antawn Jamison (my prediction for Beasley's career).


If O.J. Mayo is there at #5, then I'd like to think that Chris Wallace will take him, given that he has the chance to be that All-Star player that Memphis is so desperately wanting, needing, begging for. If Mayo is gone (as I expect him to be), then why not take Kevin Love (who I know worked out for the Heat, but don't believe that they intend to trade down to get), who has been described as everything from "a bigger and better Shane Battier" to a unique hybrid of Elton Brand and Bill Laimbeer? Geoff Calkins' co-host on their 730 ESPN morning radio show, Gary Parrish, has repeatedly said that Love might not ever been an All-Star, but he will be a solid starter for his entire career and that there is virtually no chance that he'll be anything remotely resembling a "bust".


If those are the choices that are laid before me, then I say "No" to Beasley at that price and "Yes" to either Mayo or Love. Then the question becomes, what if the draft goes Rose, Mayo, Beasley, Love....then what? That's a post for another day, but I'll leave a poll up to gauge your thoughts.

Update: Chris Herrington has his own thoughts about trading for Beasley on Beyond the Arc.

Predicting the Future

While doing all the usual preparation for this year's draft -- basically immersing myself in DraftExpress, mock drafts, message boards and sports talk radio -- a very different kind of question presented itself. In fact, it was mentioned so many times here in Memphis in the months leading up to the draft lottery that I am absolutely dumbfounded that nobody is bringing it up now. That question is: What position do we avoid taking in the draft?

This might seem to be a rather strange question, but allow me to give you some background. As my co-blogger Chip wrote a few weeks back, a few Grizzlies fans had actually taken the stance that selecting Mike Conley with the #4 pick last year was a mistake of colossal proportions, given that everyone knew that this year's draft would be chock full of quality PG's, headlined of course, by the Memphis Tigers' own Derrick Rose. In other words, the Grizzlies front office should have known that they were going to be getting another very high draft pick this offseason (and that they would be trading Pau Gasol without receiving a quality big man in return), so they should have taken a big man last year. Never mind the fact that Damon Stoudamire was still recovering from a career-threatening knee injury and that backup Kyle Lowry was still unable to do anything with the wrist that was injured 10 games into his rookie season. After all, you're supposed to draft based on talent/potential instead of need, right? Remember that these are the same fans that were predicting 40+ wins for this team back in September/October.

So with that in mind, shouldn't we be looking ahead to the 2009 draftees before deciding who to draft this year? That makes sense, doesn't it? So, do the Grizzlies avoid Anthony Randolph or Kevin Love (or even Michael Beasley) this year, because they could take Blake Griffin, Earl Clark or Patrick Patterson next June? Or should they shy away from centers Brook Lopez and DeAndre Jordan, because the early mock drafts have 3-4 centers listed among the Top 15? I need to know, so I can inform Chris Wallace. After all, he'll need to formulate a gameplan based on the fortune telling ability of the fanbase, since they were way ahead of the curve last year at this time.

Obviously I'm not lumping all Grizzlies fans into this group -- they know who they are though. They are the same ones who knew that Kendrick Perkins would turn into a decent NBA player after 4 years of barely reaching mediocrity. They also knew that Amare Stoudemire was going to be a phenom -- even though none of them had actually ever seen him play -- and that the Grizzlies should have drafted him even though he refused to work out for them. And they'll never let you forget that they were all for drafting Carlos Boozer and Josh Howard. Any day now they'll start talking about the fact that they insisted we should have taken Jason Maxiell or Ronny Turiaf over Hakim Warrick in 2005 (but only because they have to wait for people to forget that they originally said Jarrett Jack). After all, they've never been wrong about anything....ever.

Sorry if this seems like an attack on a segment of a dwindling fanbase, but it gets a little tiring listening to the people who insist on living through hindsight and the idea that they are more qualified to run an NBA franchise than the current front office. So step up to the plate, all-knowing collection of wise men and soothsayers. Tell me now who should be on our wish list for next year so that we'll know who the best pick is this year. I'll be waiting in rapt anticipation to publish your spot-on prediction so that you can proclaim your brilliance at this point next year.

As for me, I have no idea and readily admit to it. I make my best-guess picks and then live with it. Last year I had Al Horford, Mike Conley and Corey Brewer on my wish list for the #4 pick. Horford went at #3, we took Conley and I was very pleased at the time -- and I still am. The year before that, I wasn't expecting the trade that landed us Rudy Gay, so I only did research for the #24 pick, where I hoped that we would choose Jordan Farmar. I learned later that Farmar didn't want to come to Memphis and that his agent discouraged the Grizzlies from taking him, which left them to select Kyle Lowry at that spot. Given the choice between an unhappy Farmar or a pleased-as-punch Lowry, I'll take Kyle, even though Farmar has proven to be a very solid player with the Lakers.

This year, I truly have no idea what to make of this draft class after the first three spots. I believe that Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo will go in those positions and I have no idea who the Sonics will take, although it appears that Jerryd Bayless is a good bet. I could make the case that any one of Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, DeAndre Jordan, Darrell Arthur or even Joe Alexander is the "best talent available" at #5 if that's how the first four picks shake out. The simple truth is that I don't know and I do not envy the Grizzlies front office for having to make that decision. What separates me from those I outlined earlier is that I put it out there for others to see now, rather than waiting to see how Player A performs versus Players B - F through their first, second and third seasons and then proclaiming "what should have been done".

I guess that's the good thing/bad thing about being a blogger. Once I hit that "Publish Post" button, it is out there for everyone to see and for them to refer back to after I have been proven to be correct or to be a fool. I can live with that though. Now who's with me?

The Key to the Offseason

It seems that for the fans of the 26 teams that are no longer actively playing, their attention is almost completely devoted to the offseason. Let's face it -- the idea of watching the overly entitled Celtics battle the contemptible Pistons or the despised Lakers take on the methodically boring Spurs is just too much for many fans to take. This is especially true for the so-called "casual fan". After all, hope springs eternal for the supporters of the teams who find themselves in the lottery and hope is much more powerful than the passing interest they might have in one of the Final 4 teams still playing. This idea is captured in this morning's phenomenal post by Tom Ziller over on The Fanhouse: Draft Fever Trumps the Playoffs. In this great piece of writing TZ accurately points out that the unknown is always more exciting than the known. Fittingly enough, the key to this year's offseason is an unknown factor that many fans haven't yet considered: Marc Gasol

That's right. The younger brother of former Beale Street Blue Man Pau Gasol has been forgotten by many fans as an afterthought of the trade that sent big brother to La-La Land. But, whether or not little brother suits up for the Grizzlies this year is the key to how this offseason will unfold.

Marc Gasol isn't currently under a contract overseas, but is being heavily pursued by most of the top-level clubs in Europe after turning in a performance good enough to win MVP honors of the ACB league this season. That means that the younger Gasol has options. He could choose to test himself against the best competition in the world by signing with the Grizzlies and playing in the NBA. Or he could decide to stay overseas, sign a long-term contract with a team like Real Madrid or Barcelona, allowing him to stay in Spain, where he is already the best center in the league and would easily be considered amongst the best players outside the NBA. His potential has GM Chris Wallace very excited, as he would definitely be a 1st round selection if he entered this year's draft, possibly even going as high as the Top 12. Since Gasol was a 2nd round pick last year, he isn't bound by the rookie salary scale, which means he'll be able to demand a certain level of pay in order to be persuaded to cross the Atlantic Ocean. If Gasol is willing to sign a contract and play in Memphis, where he played in high school and his family is still seen on a regular basis, then the offseason takes on a very different perspective.

Let's start with the draft. Bringing Gasol aboard means that a few players should be no longer be viable options with the #5 pick. That takes Brook Lopez and DeAndre Jordan out of play, which is a very good thing from where I sit. With Gasol joining Darko Milicic and Jason Collins at the center position, the Grizzlies' front office can turn their attention to the hole at PF (Anthony Randolph, Kevin Love) or look to upgrade the Guard position (O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon). It will also influence their decision at #28, where they won't have to look to add frontcourt depth as a necessity, meaning that players like Bill Walker, Courtney Lee, Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts could be a possibility if they take Love or Randolph at #5.

While I don't expect the Grizzlies to use the cap space they will have this offseason to sign any of the big name free agents, they will be required to sign a few players to meet the league's roster minimum, so this once again eliminates the need to look exclusively for frontcourt players. This means that they could look to upgrade the swing positions by going after someone they could sign to a mid-level contract like Mickael Pietrus, James Jones or Bonzi Wells -- a player capable of playing both the Shooting Guard and Small Forward positions, given the astounding lack of depth at SF if something were to happen to Rudy Gay or Mike Miller *knock on wood* and keep either of them out for any length of time. That issue needs to be addressed either through the draft or in free agency, perhaps even both.

As of right now, Chris Wallace has been saying that it is a 50-50 proposition on Gasol signing with Memphis. If this issue is still up in the air on June 26th, then the front office will be left with a lot more uncertainty that I would like to see. Either way, Marc Gasol's decision is the most important factor facing the Grizzlies' front office, given how it will shape this pivotal offseason.

Career Choice: College vs Internationals

A lot of people have been claiming that the international game is a better feeder system to the NBA than the NCAA lately. I must admit it does seem to be a compelling argument when you consider that three of the top rookies this season came from international backgrounds (Navarro, Scola and Yi). Throw on top of that Jamario Moon who played internationally before making it in the NBA and there is serious support for the allegation that the international game, with their focus on team play and fundamentals, should be the place kids go while waiting to be allowed access to the NBA. And this is not taking into account the OJ Mayo situation where college players are being paid under the table.

So why don't kids chose the international game with their professional seasons and salary over college?

The cynics might say their handlers have no pull overseas and so they push them toward the college ranks where they can continue to exert their influence (and continue to get 'gifts' from agents). Some might say that the kids don't want to leave their homes and families to be alone in the old world. There is validity to both arguments.

But is that reason enough that no high school players have tried to go overseas? Imagine you are a talented player and you don’t have the grades to get accepted to a major college. Would you rather attend a junior college hoping to get your grades up and transfer or spend a year in Barcelona getting paid and living the good life? In my opinion the answer seems simple.

Of course, to me the language barrier could be overcome easily and I have no dreams of making the NBA as a player so my opinion isn't really germaine. Things are different overseas and it is quite likely those differences and not pay-offs or the love of their family and friends that keeps Americans at home. The European basketball game is college length so players don't play 35 minutes a game most nights, the players are more mature and as a rookie in the league you would not be playing more than 20 minutes at most. Would that exposure enable you to reach the NBA in a year or two? How would a 19 yr old rookie who doesn't speak the local language compete with older men familiar with the lifestyle, the language and the system? Consider how hard it was for Navarro to break into the lineup in Memphis when he couldn't speak English and Navarro was a former MVP overseas. Wouldn't it be even more difficult for a young man who knows no one, can't speak the language and is away from hoome for the 1st time?

It's a risk and a big one at that.

This assumes the European leagues would want want such a player. Right now the NBA and FIBA has a cordial relationship. Would that continue if European teams started to aggressively court US high school players for their leagues? It was rumored that an Italian league team offered LeBron James a contract as a high school junior to play his senior year overseas so it may already be happening. How long would the NBA maintain the age limit if players started darting to Europe instead of the NCAA after high school? Do the European leagues want players who would want to be paid a nice salary and yet have cheap buyouts every year of the contract? Do Europeans want to be a feeder league for the NBA?

Probably not but the Euroleagues might be interested in acquiring American players earlier. Players turn professional as early as 16 in Europe. Would a team be interested in signing Americans onto their junior rosters when they can get 3-4 years to develop the players? What would happen if that 8th grader who promised to sign a letter of intent to USC suddenly decided to play for FC Barcelona instead?

If a US high school athlete was seriously considering a professional basketball career at a young age he might be tempted to play overseas. What are the pros of going overseas? The 3 pt line is between the NBA mark and the college line so you would have a better idea about how that player could shoot the three in the NBA. He would be playing a more physical game which would prepare him for the NBA life much better. Playing a professional season would train him physically more than college would. The competition would be higher over all. The maturity of the player playing oversees would be higher in general from the experience.

The cons are that he may not make it overseas and then he doesn't have an education, even at the high school level. What would he do then? The trapezoid lane and other rule differences would alter the players development in ways unimaginable. He wouldn't be as familiar to NBA coaches and scouts which could hamper his draft status. He could get into trouble being a teenager on his own. It happens here with college players in their teens. What would happen to a teenager in Europe in similiar situations?

I suppose that some player will take the challenge and bolt to Europe instead of college some day and depending on how he develops more may follow but for now I doubt the international game will be viewed as a realistic alternative for most players no matter how many OJ Mayo's are found taking money.

Unless the NCAA starts penalizing the players instead of the school for accepting money for their efforts. Then all bets are off.

The Worst Thing To Ever Happen To The Grizzlies

With a title like that, I'm sure that a lot of you flashed back to last year's draft lottery. Some of you probably flashed forward to this year's draft lottery, where you are already expecting the worst possible outcome. I'm sure others conjured up images of the Pau Gasol to the Lakers trade, Shane Battier to the Rockets trade (believe me, there are some who think that was the worst move of the franchise), drafting Drew Gooden over Amare Stoudemire or Robert Archibald over Carlos Boozer or Dahntay Jones over Josh Howard. For that matter, some longstanding fans probably even thought about Bryant "Big Country" Reeves or Michael Dickerson.

But in this blogger's humble opinion, none of those compare to when the Memphis Grizzlies made the postseason for the first time in franchise history.

Ok, I'll wait for you to pick your jaw up off the floor -- and no, I won't buy any of you new monitors. Settle in and I'll explain why I feel this way

When the team moved to Memphis from Vancouver, it was the worst professional sports franchise in the history of the world. Even the Washington Generals thought that these guys were a bunch of losers. The first season by the Mississippi River, they tied a franchise record with 23 wins. The next season they hired longtime commentator Hubie Brown as head coach. He led them to 28 wins by employing his patented 10-man rotation to wear other teams out using two separate 5-man units. The following season, with the additions of James Posey and Bonzi Wells, the team won an astounding 50 games and made the playoffs, shocking fans, experts and opposing teams alike. The team hired another commentator in Mike Fratello to replace the departing Brown the next season and made the postseason each of the next two years to make it three straight appearances. During this time, the team shipped out members of its "core group", such as Wells, Posey and Jason Williams for veteran players such as Damon Stoudamire and Eddie Jones

Ok, now that we've got the history lesson out of the way, let's take a closer examination of what making the playoffs that first time really did for the organization and its fanbase. For the fanbase, it raised expectations substantially. Rather than rooting for a team that was the doormat of the league, suddenly they were cheering for a team that made the Final 8 in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Even after they got swept by the San Antonio Spurs, there was still talk of "minor moves" to be made that could make this team a title contender. Looking back it all seems quite ridiculous for anyone to believe that team was even within shouting distance of a title, but that's what fans were thinking and talking about in the 2004 offseason. Ever since then the expectations have always been obscenely inflated. Even going in to this season people predicted that the team would double their win total from last year and others even said that we should expect another 50-win season.....just like in 2003/04. Making the playoffs legitimized this team for a fanbase that was begging for something to believe in. The unintended consequence of that was to superglue Beale Street Blue goggles on the heads of those same fans and render most of them illogical and unreasonable. They became fanatics and desired more success and more improvement, no matter what the cost

That sentiment carried over to the front office, unfortunately. Rather than developing a plan to supplement the team with young, promising players loaded with potential, the powers-that-be chose to surround the young core of Pau Gasol, Shane Battier and Mike Miller with proven veterans (the aforementioned Stoudamire and Jones) and drafted 4-year college players with limited upside like Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, and Hakim Warrick. When JWill, Bonzi and Posey proved to be distractions incapable of remaining with the team, they could have formulated a model that would have meant taking a step back in order to achieve long-term success. Instead, they listened to their customers who demanded more, more, more and now, now, now. They piece-mealed a roster around a talented player in Gasol that never truly emphasized his strengths and didn't take a chance in the draft until 2006 with the trade that brought in Rudy Gay and drafting Kyle Lowry. They were faced with a "dare to be great" situation back in 2004 and they whiffed on it. Now they are mired in a rebuilding process with a disgruntled fanbase calling for changes by the dozen. Of course, lest we forget, it was the cries of that same fanbase that helped usher in a lot of these issues to begin with.

Realistic expectations -- is there truly such a thing? Yankees/Red Sox fans expect a World Series ring every season. Colts/Patriots fans expect to see their team deep in the playoffs each January. Spurs/Pistons fans always think that their teams will be playing come June. I think that Memphis Grizzlies fans should learn how to temper their expectations and that the front office should never, ever listen to that fanbase when it comes to personnel moves.

But what do I know? I'm just a guy with a keyboard who thought this year's team was good enough to win 13 more games than last year. I guess I should learn how to take my own advice.

Youth Will Be Served

The deepest definition of youth is life as yet untouched by tragedy.
Alfred North Whitehead

The Grizzlies officially began their youth movement on January 29th with the trade of Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a 19 yr old rookie, 2nd rd draft pick Marc Gasol, two future 1st rd picks and of course $9 million in salary cap space called Kwame Brown. Combining those players with a 21 yr old up and comer like Rudy Gay, a 20 yr old PG in Mike Conley, a 22 yr old center in Darko Milicic and 21 yr old back up PG Kyle Lowry and it is obvious Memphis isn't planning on turning things around by bringing in veterans. Put away the fantasy of seeing Marcus Camby or Gilbert Arenas in a Grizzlies uniform for the time being. Acquiring players past their prime could improve the team but only to the level of a 1st rd exit in the playoffs. Memphis has been there and it isn't enough.

Since the Gasol trade people have wondered what exactly a youth movement means for the future of the Grizzlies both in Memphis and in the NBA. Is this an attempt to sell the team? Is this a new way of describing the Clippers/Donald Sterling strategy of being profitable for the owner but not successful on the court? Is this actually a strategy that will lead the team to a higher level of success in the future?

Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.
Aldous Huxley (1894 - 1963), "Texts and Pretexts", 1932

Not many NBA teams have succeeded in turning things completely around with a pure youth movement. Recent exceptions could include Chicago and Portland. Chicago went from one of the worst teams in the league for 6 years to a playoff contender and then right back down when the lack of maturity and some poor management decisions caused the team to fall apart right at the point where it appeared they would join the ranks of the elite teams in the league. Portland is still an unknown but the team has many serious decisions to make going forward if they expect to continue to grow from their recent success.

What usually happens in a youth movement is that instead of learning how to win NBA games, the young players learn how to lose NBA games. Losing can be especially difficult on a young player and as losses pile up, effort drops down. Attitude deteriorates and players want out at any cost. Pau Gasol is a great example of this. He appears to be a player reborn after getting away from a losing franchise. His numbers are no better in LA than they were in Memphis but his body language has definitely improved.

It is human nature after all. To overcome the apathy induced from losing a team needs a strong leader both on the bench and on the court. Right now it could be argued that Memphis has at most one and more likely neither. The team will need to find an on-court leader and develop their leader on the bench. Experience is called the great teacher. Well if that is true then we have set in place the building blocks for a great leader from this past season.

Experience is a hard teacher because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards.
Vernon Sanders Law

Iavaroni has been given his test. So has Mike Conley, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry for that matter. For Memphis to make meaningful improvement next season, and by that I am not saying playoff improvement, these people will need to show what they learned from last year's test. Will Iavaroni improve his ability to make good decisions from the bench? Will Conley take the next step forward in controlling the pace of the game and his outside shot? Will Rudy become the type of player that elevates his teammates play as well as his own? Will Lowry become a team leader instead of a momentum changer?

The leaders for next season most likely won't come from this draft. That is not a slight on those players either. It is extremely rare for a rookie to step into this league and be able to lead veterans. The refs don't give you calls. The travel and long season take a heavy toll. The speed of the game needs to be adjusted for. And the rookies entering the league now are not men yet. Most likely the Grizzlies draft pick will not be able to celebrate his selection with a glass of champagne!

So as Memphis enters the first full season of their youth movement it should be interesting to see who learned the lessons from last season and improved and who were beaten by them.

And a little luck on Tuesday wouldn't hurt either.