Career Choice: College vs Internationals

A lot of people have been claiming that the international game is a better feeder system to the NBA than the NCAA lately. I must admit it does seem to be a compelling argument when you consider that three of the top rookies this season came from international backgrounds (Navarro, Scola and Yi). Throw on top of that Jamario Moon who played internationally before making it in the NBA and there is serious support for the allegation that the international game, with their focus on team play and fundamentals, should be the place kids go while waiting to be allowed access to the NBA. And this is not taking into account the OJ Mayo situation where college players are being paid under the table.

So why don't kids chose the international game with their professional seasons and salary over college?

The cynics might say their handlers have no pull overseas and so they push them toward the college ranks where they can continue to exert their influence (and continue to get 'gifts' from agents). Some might say that the kids don't want to leave their homes and families to be alone in the old world. There is validity to both arguments.

But is that reason enough that no high school players have tried to go overseas? Imagine you are a talented player and you don’t have the grades to get accepted to a major college. Would you rather attend a junior college hoping to get your grades up and transfer or spend a year in Barcelona getting paid and living the good life? In my opinion the answer seems simple.

Of course, to me the language barrier could be overcome easily and I have no dreams of making the NBA as a player so my opinion isn't really germaine. Things are different overseas and it is quite likely those differences and not pay-offs or the love of their family and friends that keeps Americans at home. The European basketball game is college length so players don't play 35 minutes a game most nights, the players are more mature and as a rookie in the league you would not be playing more than 20 minutes at most. Would that exposure enable you to reach the NBA in a year or two? How would a 19 yr old rookie who doesn't speak the local language compete with older men familiar with the lifestyle, the language and the system? Consider how hard it was for Navarro to break into the lineup in Memphis when he couldn't speak English and Navarro was a former MVP overseas. Wouldn't it be even more difficult for a young man who knows no one, can't speak the language and is away from hoome for the 1st time?

It's a risk and a big one at that.

This assumes the European leagues would want want such a player. Right now the NBA and FIBA has a cordial relationship. Would that continue if European teams started to aggressively court US high school players for their leagues? It was rumored that an Italian league team offered LeBron James a contract as a high school junior to play his senior year overseas so it may already be happening. How long would the NBA maintain the age limit if players started darting to Europe instead of the NCAA after high school? Do the European leagues want players who would want to be paid a nice salary and yet have cheap buyouts every year of the contract? Do Europeans want to be a feeder league for the NBA?

Probably not but the Euroleagues might be interested in acquiring American players earlier. Players turn professional as early as 16 in Europe. Would a team be interested in signing Americans onto their junior rosters when they can get 3-4 years to develop the players? What would happen if that 8th grader who promised to sign a letter of intent to USC suddenly decided to play for FC Barcelona instead?

If a US high school athlete was seriously considering a professional basketball career at a young age he might be tempted to play overseas. What are the pros of going overseas? The 3 pt line is between the NBA mark and the college line so you would have a better idea about how that player could shoot the three in the NBA. He would be playing a more physical game which would prepare him for the NBA life much better. Playing a professional season would train him physically more than college would. The competition would be higher over all. The maturity of the player playing oversees would be higher in general from the experience.

The cons are that he may not make it overseas and then he doesn't have an education, even at the high school level. What would he do then? The trapezoid lane and other rule differences would alter the players development in ways unimaginable. He wouldn't be as familiar to NBA coaches and scouts which could hamper his draft status. He could get into trouble being a teenager on his own. It happens here with college players in their teens. What would happen to a teenager in Europe in similiar situations?

I suppose that some player will take the challenge and bolt to Europe instead of college some day and depending on how he develops more may follow but for now I doubt the international game will be viewed as a realistic alternative for most players no matter how many OJ Mayo's are found taking money.

Unless the NCAA starts penalizing the players instead of the school for accepting money for their efforts. Then all bets are off.

Transition

As the international tournaments came to a close today (more on that tomorrow), I contemplated the transition of international players who enter the NBA not having attended college here in America. I recalled a post of mine from the Grizzlies Messageboard and will revisit it here.

We're all probably aware of the dreaded "rookie wall" that all players hit after entering the NBA from college. For most players this occurs somewhere near the middle of the season, typically around late January/early February. This is a result of players having to adapt from playing an average of 30-40 games a season in high school/college to an 82-game regular season in the NBA that is filled with travel and back-to-back games. So, we've come to recognize this as an eventuality, rather than something that only affects a percentage of in players (like the lesser-known "sophomore slump"). We're able to follow players in America from early on in their careers now, which means we usually have a reasonable level of familiarity on which to base expectations. However, with more and more players coming from international backgrounds, it has become increasingly difficult to determine not only how well their talent level and abilities will translate to the NBA game, but what expectations we should place on them. I believe that much of this is due to the fact that many fans are unaware of the length and type of seasons that are played overseas. An increased knowledge about this area should help us to determine what the transition curve should be for incoming international players, such as Juan Carlos Navarro.

Many of the leagues are set up in a very similar nature to their soccer counterparts, which means that there are 2 or 3 different "leagues" or tournaments that occur throughout a season. Navarro's former team, FC Barcelona, played 73 games last year, spread out over two leagues and a tournament (ACB, Euroleague and Spanish Cup). Their "season" lasted from October 1 through June 24, which is comparable to an NBA regular season and playoffs, albeit with approximately 20 fewer games played over that timeframe. Also, they only played one set of back-to-back games, which were the semifinal and final of the Spanish Cup. The more extensive schedule combined with the constant travel leads to fatigue for veteran players, so it is no surprise that it affects incoming rookies as greatly as it does.Here's a look at how some heralded international players (either then or now) have fared in their initial foray into the NBA.

Pau Gasol, age 21 (2001/02): 36.7 mpg, 17.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.1 bpg, .518 FG%, .709 FT%

Yao Ming, age 22 (2002/03): 29.0 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.8 bpg, .498 FG%, .811 FT%

Peja Stojakovic, age 21 (1999/00): 21.4 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.9 spg, .378 FG%, .320 3PT%, .851 FT%

Manu Ginobili, age 25 (2002/03): 20.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.4 spg, .438 FG%, .345 3PT%, .737 FT%

Tony Parker, age 19 (2001/02): 29.4 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.2 spg, .419 FG%, .323 3PT%, .675 FT%

Dirk Nowitzki, age 20 (1998/99): 20.4 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 apg, .405 FG%, .206 3PT%, .773 FT%

Andres Nocioni, age 25 (2004/05): 23.3 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, .401 FG%, .258 3PT%, .766 FT%

Leandro Barbosa, age 21 (2003/04): 21.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.3 spg, .447 FG%, .395 3PT%, .770 FT%

Jose Calderon, age 24 (2005/06): 23.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 4.5 apg, .423 FG%, .163 3PT%, .848 FT%

Boris Diaw, age 21 (2003/04): 25.3 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.4 apg, .447 FG%, .602 FT%

Jorge Garbajosa, age 29 (2006/07): 28.5 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.2 spg, .420 FG%, .731 FT%

Toni Kukoc, age 25 (1993/94): 24.1 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, .431 FG%, .271 3PT%, .743 FT%

Based on the statistics above, it would seem that there is an adjustment period for practically every player upon entering the NBA, no matter how much talent they possess. It is worth noting that there was no discernible "rookie wall" that international players hit in comparison to their fellow players who attended college in the U.S. For the most part, many players simply exhibited a typical inconsistency from game to game that we expect out of rookies, but no dropoff after a certain amount of games. The conclusion I came to is that international players are more prepared for the long grind that is the NBA regular season than their collegiate counterparts. However, both sets of players require an adjustment to the talent level of the NBA. I'd love for David Berri to tackle this subject in the future just to see what results he comes up with.