Math: When 1+1 Does Not Equal 2

Robert Ruark's famous Old Man once said: "One boy is all boy, two boys is half a boy and three boys is no boy at all." In the same vein, football has adopted the saying that "two quarterbacks equals no quarterback". In a way, they both say the same thing, which is that sometimes, there is indeed such a thing as too much of a good thing.

As of right now, the Grizzlies depth chart for the players in contention for the much-maligned Three Year Plan looks a little something like this:

PG: Mike Conley/Kyle Lowry
SG: O.J. Mayo/Javaris Crittenton
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Hakim Warrick/Darrell Arthur
C: Darko Milicic/Marc Gasol

The other players on the team are as follows:

Marko Jaric (PG/SG/SF?), Antoine Walker (SF/PF), Greg Buckner (SG/SF?)

Notice something about those young guys at four of the five positions above? That's right -- there are two of them fighting for the same minutes at the same position. At this point, we suspect that we know who the eventual winners will be, but in reality we don't actually know yet. That doubt in our minds is even more present in their's, because each of them truly believes that they deserve the lion's share of minutes. Well, except maybe for Darko. I don't know what he believes -- mostly because I'm too petrified of him to study him at length. Do you blame me?

Danica McKellar, who actually authored a math book.

There are 48 available minutes at each of those 5 positions and at some point in this season, a player is going to step up and show that he is worthy of 28-35 of them, rather than 13-20. But until that happens, it is anyone's game and that is when issues can arise.

Many people lambasted Chris Wallace for not moving one of the young guards (typically either Kyle Lowry or Javaris Crittenton) during the draft or in the offseason to this point, feeling that there were too many good young players with not enough places to play in the backcourt. I agree about the core idea (too much/not enough), but not about their solution. In this regard, I think that these players have to prove which of them is better and thusly deserve to stay and play in Memphis. In particular, the quartet of Conley, Lowry, Mayo and Critt have proven absolutely nothing to anyone at this point and all should be striving to show what they are capable of. When that happens, then a move can be made based on good evaluations and information. That might be after two months, at the trade deadline or possibly even next offseason. But once it becomes apparent that Player A is a keeper and Player Q is expendable, a move must be made before chemistry is upset and that player's value takes a hit.

With all of that said, I have had some interesting conversations lately about who the perceived "odd man out" is. Fans around the league seem to believe that it is Javaris Crittenton, as his name has popped up in numerous trade rumors. In my unqualified, unmedicated opinion, it would appear that Kyle Lowry is the far more likely choice based on a number of reasons.

First, he was the last draft choice of the old regime led by Jerry West, while the other three guards have been brought in by Chris Wallace. That alone has to count for something, as has been noted by my co-blogger Zack on numerous occasions.

Next, while he is full of grit, determination and tenacity, the perception is that his upside is much more limited than the other three players fighting for minutes in the backcourt. As we all know, perception all too often becomes reality when dealing with unmeasurable qualities like potential. The notion than Conley will become better than Lowry, even if he isn't yet there in many people's minds, will be an important factor in this decision.

Finally, he is a PG and a PG only. Whereas Mayo and Critt (both in the 6'4"-6'5" range) are reputed to be capable of playing either guard spot, meaning that a three guard rotation of Conley/Mayo/Critt is capable of splitting the 96 minutes at PG & SG without there being a dropoff. As anyone who saw the Grizzlies put Conley and Lowry on the floor at the same time last year could tell you, it might have given the team an extra quality ballhandler on the floor, but the lost size was a big issue. That, above all else, proved that 1+1 did not equal a 2 guard on the floor.

Hopefully, all of these things will work themselves out and the Grizzlies will find themselves with quality players at all 5 positions by the end of the season, putting them in a position to draft based solely upon "Best Player Available", rather than worrying about need. Because that's how you truly get better thru the draft -- which appears to be the best way that Grizzlies will have to rise up through the ranks once again and return to the postseason.

Youth Will Be Served

The deepest definition of youth is life as yet untouched by tragedy.
Alfred North Whitehead

The Grizzlies officially began their youth movement on January 29th with the trade of Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a 19 yr old rookie, 2nd rd draft pick Marc Gasol, two future 1st rd picks and of course $9 million in salary cap space called Kwame Brown. Combining those players with a 21 yr old up and comer like Rudy Gay, a 20 yr old PG in Mike Conley, a 22 yr old center in Darko Milicic and 21 yr old back up PG Kyle Lowry and it is obvious Memphis isn't planning on turning things around by bringing in veterans. Put away the fantasy of seeing Marcus Camby or Gilbert Arenas in a Grizzlies uniform for the time being. Acquiring players past their prime could improve the team but only to the level of a 1st rd exit in the playoffs. Memphis has been there and it isn't enough.

Since the Gasol trade people have wondered what exactly a youth movement means for the future of the Grizzlies both in Memphis and in the NBA. Is this an attempt to sell the team? Is this a new way of describing the Clippers/Donald Sterling strategy of being profitable for the owner but not successful on the court? Is this actually a strategy that will lead the team to a higher level of success in the future?

Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.
Aldous Huxley (1894 - 1963), "Texts and Pretexts", 1932

Not many NBA teams have succeeded in turning things completely around with a pure youth movement. Recent exceptions could include Chicago and Portland. Chicago went from one of the worst teams in the league for 6 years to a playoff contender and then right back down when the lack of maturity and some poor management decisions caused the team to fall apart right at the point where it appeared they would join the ranks of the elite teams in the league. Portland is still an unknown but the team has many serious decisions to make going forward if they expect to continue to grow from their recent success.

What usually happens in a youth movement is that instead of learning how to win NBA games, the young players learn how to lose NBA games. Losing can be especially difficult on a young player and as losses pile up, effort drops down. Attitude deteriorates and players want out at any cost. Pau Gasol is a great example of this. He appears to be a player reborn after getting away from a losing franchise. His numbers are no better in LA than they were in Memphis but his body language has definitely improved.

It is human nature after all. To overcome the apathy induced from losing a team needs a strong leader both on the bench and on the court. Right now it could be argued that Memphis has at most one and more likely neither. The team will need to find an on-court leader and develop their leader on the bench. Experience is called the great teacher. Well if that is true then we have set in place the building blocks for a great leader from this past season.

Experience is a hard teacher because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards.
Vernon Sanders Law

Iavaroni has been given his test. So has Mike Conley, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry for that matter. For Memphis to make meaningful improvement next season, and by that I am not saying playoff improvement, these people will need to show what they learned from last year's test. Will Iavaroni improve his ability to make good decisions from the bench? Will Conley take the next step forward in controlling the pace of the game and his outside shot? Will Rudy become the type of player that elevates his teammates play as well as his own? Will Lowry become a team leader instead of a momentum changer?

The leaders for next season most likely won't come from this draft. That is not a slight on those players either. It is extremely rare for a rookie to step into this league and be able to lead veterans. The refs don't give you calls. The travel and long season take a heavy toll. The speed of the game needs to be adjusted for. And the rookies entering the league now are not men yet. Most likely the Grizzlies draft pick will not be able to celebrate his selection with a glass of champagne!

So as Memphis enters the first full season of their youth movement it should be interesting to see who learned the lessons from last season and improved and who were beaten by them.

And a little luck on Tuesday wouldn't hurt either.