Players to keep an eye on (Part 1)

As we inch ever closer to training camp and prepare to call to completion yet another offseason, I thought we'd look into the future to identify some players that the Grizzlies should keep an eye on. These players will fall into 2 groups: players who can be traded for this season, players who will be free agents in 2008, 2009 and 2010. If we've come to understand anything about NBA transactions so far, it is that you have to keep one eye on the present, one eye on the future and both hands on the wheel. That means that you cannot get too caught up in what occurs every day on the practice court and in games, and subsequently lose sight of the bigger picture. By the same token, you cannot mortgage your team's future for the sake of "one big chance" at a title unless that risk gives you a shot at winning a title over a 3 year period. Winning titles is the goal, just in case anyone has forgotten. With that in mind, here are the players that I think could upgrade the talent level of the Grizzlies or provide them with more cap space to pursue free agents over the next two offseasons.

Players available in a trade this season
We know that the Grizzlies would likely have little to no problem with parting ways with Damon Stoudamire or Stromile Swift at some point this season. Those two players provide the basis for whom I will be looking at and evaluating, as there are a few teams looking for help at PG and in the frontcourt. Without taking a horrendous contract in return, there is no way to move Brian Cardinal, so don't even bother suggesting it in the Comments.

Walter Herrmann (F - Charlotte Bobcats) -- The Bobcats have one real PG under contract (Raymond Felton) after letting Brevin Knight sign with the Clippers. They could use a player like Damon Stoudamire (with a future 2nd round pick added if necessary) to allow Felton a breather each game, and possibly a night off here and there. Herrmann proved to be a valuable player last season, showing a surprising ability to score after Gerald Wallace suffered a season-ending injury, allowing the Argentine to move into the starting lineup for the final 12 games of the season and post the following stats in that span: 19.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, .585 FG%, .483 3PT%, .789 FT% in 37 MPG. The BETcats went 7-5 in the games he started. Charlotte might be willing to part with him, given the amount of frontcourt talent they have and the dearth of help they have at the PG position.

Donyell Marshall (F - Cleveland Cavaliers) -- The Cavs have a similar issue at PG, but are also reportedly looking to add interior help, so either Damon or Stro could potentially land this versatile forward who has seen his minutes dwindle despite relatively steady production. He's always been a 3-point threat and has grabbed double-digit rebounds in two of his 13 seasons, the most recent being 2003/04. He's a capable performer off the bench and has two years remaining on his contract, during which time he would likely be of more value that Damon.

Eduardo Najera (F - Denver Nuggets) -- A dirty player? Only if he's playing for the other team. He's a gritty hustle player, which the Grizz have been missing since Shane Battier was traded away and Brian Cardinal forgot to bring his knee ligaments with him to the arena. The Nuggets allowed Steve Blake to leave in free agency, leaving them with Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and the relic that used to be Anthony Carter manning the point. Don't be surprised if they start looking for some insurance at that position by mid-season, giving Memphis the opportunity to send Damon their way. Najera's contract expires at the end of the season, making it a win-win situation no matter how well he plays.

Kwame Brown (FC - L.A. Lakers) -- Yeah, he's a bust, but you're missing the point here: $9,075,000 of expiring contract. That's very close to the combined salaries of Damon and Stro ($10.15 million). The Lakers are another team with a potential lack of PG's, with Jordan Farmar and Derek Fisher (who has always played like a SG) the only guys on the roster that don't have that "R for Rookie" designation by their names. I know that this is true for the Grizzlies as well, with Conley, Lowry and Navarro all being rookies for all intents and purposes, but I'd be willing to roll the dice to get rid of those two contracts in exhange for cap space next offseason. Another player like Maurice Evans might be included to make the salaries work. Who knows, they might throw in Marc Gasol to make the deal work......just kidding.

Ricky Davis.......or maybe not. I wouldn't mind taking the "Grizzly Killer" off the market and then have him become the towel boy, but that's about the only way I'd want to trade for him.

Other players I considered, but didn't deem realistic acquisitions: John Salmons, Josh Childress, Jeff Foster, Francisco Elson, and Mouhamed Sene.

That left me with four players that I can see being legitimately moved this season that our two veterans could potentially land. I'll tackle the upcoming free agent markets in my next post.

Position Battles - Point Guards

This may be a bit too early to really discuss. After all Pau Gasol hasn't made it thru the summer FIBA exhibition games yet much less the actual tournament in September and this season we have Darko, Navarro and Miller all competing in FIBA events as well.

However this year appears to be shaping up to be the most competitive camp in team history. Not since Billy Knight and Sydney Lowe had rookies Shane Battier and Pau Gasol in camp with newcomers Jason Williams and Lorenzen Wright have their been so many new faces with opportunities to start entering training camp. Looking at the positional breakdowns in a different light than the simplistic PG, SG, SF, PF and C battles reveals a myraid of optional lineups that could and most likely will start at different points of the season.

Marc Iavaroni believes in running positions as two areas of focus: Interior players and wing players. I will be looking at positional battles over the next few weeks in this manner except the Point Guard position which will be broken out seperately. I will also overlap certain players into different groups. This is done to fully cover the possibilities.

So here they are...

Point Guards

Outside of Damon Stoudamire the Grizzlies 3 other point guards have a total of 10 games of NBA experience and Damon Stoudamire while essentially the returning starter probably won't be competing for the starting role this season. With Kyle Lowry healed from his broken wrist, top draft pick Mike Conley, Jr and Pau's best friend Juan Carlos Navarro all available to play the point and the oldest of these players being 6 years younger than Damon there doesn't appear to be much chance the veteran will be on the court after November and only a slim chance before then. Damon came to Memphis to replace JWill and provide leadership and experience to the point. He can still do that now but instead of leading on the court, he will need to lead in practice. Damon will have to help the young guns to learn the NBA game fast if the Grizzlies are going to have a successful season.

The real battle appears on paper to be Kyle Lowry vs Mike Conley.

Lowry has the quicker hands and more physical style that will frustrate oppenents attempting to drive into the lane against the Grizzlies. He also has a great nose for the ball and no fear in attacking to get it. His 3.1 rpg and 1.4 spg last season can attest to that. However that was accomplished in limited minutes and in limited games. If Kyle Lowry played 48 minutes a night he would average 8.5 rpg. Of course he would only last about 9 games that way before dying from exhaustion as well. Kyle's biggest weakness is his outside shot which was terrible last year (36.8% from the floor).

Mike Conley is faster, a better playmaker and can jump higher than Lowry but he has no outside shot either, is to thin to be a physical player and two years ago was preparing for his senior season in high school. Conley appears to have the tools to be an excellent point guard but you have to wonder how prepared he is for life in the NBA. Rookie point guards have a history of struggling in the NBA and those who have succeeded were more experienced and polished entering the league. Conley's main drawback outside of his age is his lack of an outside shot but that is somewhat mitigated by his speed with the ball. That extra speed should allow him to get past his initial defender and into the paint where his passing and rainbow shot are more effective.

The wild card is La Bomba, Juan Carlos Navarro. Navarro is spoken of as more of a shooting guard than a point guard but he does have a nice passing game for a shooter and should be able to fill the role in emergency situations. He is the only potential PG who actually could create fear at the 3 pt line also. Previous Iavaroni coached teams had Steve Nash, Mark Price and Tim Hardaway at the point so he can appreciate the impact a shooter can have on a team from the outside. Navarro could struggle learning the NBA game after establishing himself in the Spanish and European leagues but having Pau Gasol and Damon Stoudamire around could soften the blow somewhat.

So what will happen?

I previously thought that Damon would be the starter because of his experience. After watching the summer league games I became convinced that Mike Conley was the man with his superior ability to get others involved. Wait until after the FIBA Europe tournament and I may be singing Navarro's praise. In other words this competition is honestly wide open. Damon has to have the inside track as his knee should be fully recovered from his patella tendon injury and while old and slow he is still the only experienced point guard on the team and opening night is against Tony Parker, the reigning NBA Finals MVP. Somehow I don't see Iavaroni starting the matchup with a rookie.

Next review will be Wing Players

Conceding Conference Championship to the Celtics? Not so fast.

I've seen it said on several websites, blogs and message boards that the Celtics are all but guaranteed to win the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA Championship. While they have accumulated an enormous amount of talent with their own "Big Three", I'm not quite prepared to just hand the Larry O'Brien to them just yet. I'm fully aware that they aren't done making moves and signing players, but since it is their Triumverate that has everyone so excited, let's take a look at how the Big Three really stack up against the rest of the East and break things down, shall we?

Detroit Pistons - Perhaps the best team in the East over the past 5 years, although they only have one title to show for it. Known for their defensive prowess, they proved it last season by holding Garnett to 16.5 PPG on .354 FG% (two games) and Allen to a .292 FG% in their only meeting. It should also be noted that the Celtics have no one to stop the offensive exploits of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton. Star power or not, I have to give the edge in this matchup to the Pistons.

Chicago Bulls - Another fine defensive team, they held Pierce to 13.3 PPG on .318 FG% (3 games), Allen to .321 FG% (one game) and Garnett to .395 FG% (two games) last season. The common refrain I've heard is that each of these players were the only "serious threat" on their teams, making it easier to key in on them. Well, that may have been the case last year, but with Hinrich, Nocioni, Deng and Big Ben manning the fort, I doubt they will find the prospect of facing the denizens of the Windy City any more welcoming. Hyperactive jumping beans Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah are sure to grab most of the loose balls within the zip code, limiting KG's dominance of the boards, as well. Plus, their defensive deficiencies will show up as a glaring weakness when Ben Gordon comes off the bench to light up the scoreboard. Edge: Bulls.

Toronto Raptors - With their uptempo pace and decided advantage in the youth/fresh legs department, it is hard not to like the chances of the Raptors vs. the aging Celtics. They managed to hold Garnett to .341 FG% last season in two meetings (both wins over the T'Wolves). The frontcourt of Bosh, Bargnani, Garbajosa and Nesterovic frustrated KG to no end, which is no great surprise since Bosh has developed into a younger, left-handed version of "The Big Ticket". The Raptors have had difficulty covering Pierce and Allen, but I think that this could prove to be a very close playoff series, were it to occur next May/June.

New Jersey Nets - Vince Carter vs. Ray Allen = Draw. Richard Jefferson vs. Paul Pierce = Draw. Kevin Garnett vs. Nenad Krstic/Jamaal Magloire/Josh Boone = KG. Jason Kidd vs. Anybody on the roster or that they might sign = Huge edge to Kidd. The Point Guard position is something that cannot be ignored, especially when you consider that the Celtics have Rajon Rondo and virtually no one else capable of playing that spot. Kidd's leadership and playmaking could turn this potential playoff series.

Miami Heat - Who's gonna stop Dwyane Wade? Who can contend with the Diesel...even at half-speed? Their PG situation is still shaky, but against the Celtics that's not a huge concern, now is it? If they can avoid the injury bug that torpedoed their season last year, then they could be right back in the thick of a title hunt as Shaq, Zo, Penny and GP look to ride off into the sunset. This is a tough matchup for the top teams in the West, so it goes without saying that the Celtics would have their hands full in a series with the former champs.

Cleveland Cavaliers - You didn't think that I'd forgotten about the defending conference champs, did you? While I don't believe that they'll be able to repeat last year's success, I think we've all seen that LeBron James has proven capable of being a one-man wrecking crew in the playoffs -- even against the best defensive teams in the East. The Celtics are not going to be a great defensive team, so it would surprise no one if LBJ reprises the role he played so masterfully in leading the Cavs to the NBA Finals.

That makes six teams that I believe are capable of beating the Celtics in a 7 game series in the postseason. Their defensive inadequacies and gaping hole at PG are going to be a huge roadblock for their title aspirations. I didn't even broach the subject of Head Coach Doc Rivers -- but it wouldn't surprise me to see Danny Ainge pull a Pat Riley and take over on the bench at some point this season. Of course, I could be wrong and the Celtics could be returned to their former status as one of the premier teams in the NBA by winning a title (or two). As they say, that's why they play the games.

Paint and Perimeter

People wonder how the Memphis Grizzlies will stop anyone from scoring this year. Not only were they one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year but they signed players more thought of as offensive players than defensive in the off-season. Juan Carlos Navarro being the latest example but Mike Conley, Casey Jacobson and Andre Brown aren't known as defensive stalwarts and even Darko Milicic is more of a finese off-the-ball shot blocker than a big imposing presence in the middle. How can this team improve dramatically without a dominant rebounder, a imposing presence on penetrators and defensively challenged perimeter players being brought in to the team?

This isn't last year's team.

First, Tony Barone is a funny guy, a good talent evaluator and probably cooks a mean Veal Marsala but he isnt't a defensive coach. Marc Iavaroni is a defensive coach. He understands how to play team defense in the NBA both as a player with Philadelphia, Utah and SAn Antonio then as an assistant with Pat Riley in Miami, Mike Fratello in Cleveland and finally as the lead assistant with Phoenix where he was primarily in charge of defense. Phoenix gives up points but they wreck the offensive flow of most teams while doing it which creates quick scoring opportunities for the Suns even after made baskets. After all it isn't how few points you surrender but did you surrender less than the opponent that wins games.

Second, this year's interior team won't be expected to guard so much of the court. Why? Because with two shot blockers instead of one players will be less likely to challenge the paint. More importantly, Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley have the speed to deny the easy penetration drives that plagued the Grizzlies last season. The trouble wasn't that Gasol couldn't guard his man as much as he couldn't guard both his man and the point guard that Chucky and Damon let pass uncontested nor could he guard the Power Forward who snuck in unguarded either. Gasol was left too often with no one guarding the penetration and no one watching his rear either. Anyone would look bad being in that positions and Gasol isn't great to begin with.

Third, the team's focus will be paint and perimeter. Darko and Gasol will be patroling the paint and Kinsey, Gay, Miller, Navarro and even Jacobson will be guarding the perimeter. With the speed at point guard teams will be looking for players less comfortable dribbling the ball to create penetration. Memphis will be putting people on the perimeter looking to disrupt them before they get going. The idea will be to get into passing lanes and keep reaching for the dribbles in an attempt to get the opponents flustered.

And even if they get past the perimeter they have one of three options: continue into the paint where our interior 7fters are waiting, attempt another pass while the Grizz perimeter players are clogging the passing lanes or take the dreaded mid-range jump shot. That shot is what most NBA players are ineffective at hitting. Coaches have told players for years to drive the ball or take the three but the worst shot you can take is a two point shot near the three point line. This is where Memphis will want teams shooting.

Some teams will be able to exploit this defense. They will be able to beat the pressure on the perimeter, make the mid-range shot or a crisp pass to another player breaking into the lane. Teams will score on the Grizzlies no doubt about that. However they will be scoring at a pace they won't be comfortable playing. Memphis will look to run on deflections, run on steals, run on misses and even run on makes. The objective of the defense will be to establish a faster game and exploit our perimeter players ability to get up and down the court before teams can set up their defense.

So Memphis won't lead the league in scoring defense this season but they could come close to leading the league in fast break points (they were 5th last season despite 7 weeks of Fratello's slow ball style). Why is that important? Because the last few years the team with the most fast break points has won on average 57% of their games (according to 82games.com). That translates into 47 wins a season.

And anyone can defend that record.

Grizzlies look to acquire Juan Carlos Navarro

The terms of the deal are believed to be as follows per Chris Vernon at cvernon.com:

Memphis receives J.C. Navarro. Washington will receive a first round pick from the Grizzlies (contrary to what has been reported, I am told that this is how it will break down). I will try to make this as simple as I can, but it is a little tricky.
'08 if the Grizzlies select 20 or further down, it goes to the Wizards (top 19 protected)
'09 if the Grizzlies select 17 or further down, it goes to the Wizards (top 16 protected)
'10- '12 the Grizzlies pick is lottery protected
'13 - the pick is top 12 protected and if it has not been given, cash considerations will be given to the Wizards.

Face value, this deal isn't a great one, because we are, in fact, potentially giving up a 1st round pick for a player who can only sign a one-year deal. A player that's not a big name or a proven contributor, I might add. Most of the people who are opposing this deal see it in those terms.

However, if you weigh in all the factors, you'll see that this is a low-risk deal. First, unless he signs a contract, we're not parting with anything. Second, the draft pick is lottery protected, so there is a strong possibility that it will be rolled over to the following year's draft anyways. Third, Navarro's friendship (and loyalty) to Gasol make it a strong bet that he'll be ready to re-sign with the Grizzlies next offseason without holding us over the proverbial barrel. Fourth, this move will be the "cherry on top" in meeting Gasol's various requests over the past few seasons, since he's already been provided with two capable young point guards and the big man he's been in need of for the past 4 years. Acquiring his best friend -- who isn't exactly a sub-standard shooter, by the way -- should lay to rest the last of his concerns about the team being willing to do what is necessary to not only compete and move towards being a contender, but to also prove that they feel he is the cornerstone that they want to build around.

I don't believe in kowtowing to a player's demands simply for the sake of "keeping them happy", but since we all seem to recognize that Navarro will likely be a solid pro and will upgrade the overall talent level of the team, I see this as a positive move for the franchise as a whole, not just for Pau. The Heat and Lakers were both working to acquire Navarro's services, so I'm fairly certain that he has the talent level to make an impact in the NBA.

Don't play poker with Danny Ainge

Right now, as in this very moment, I'm watching Kevin Garnett's news conference on ESPN News. I just finished reading the Sports Guy's column on Page 2 about Danny Ainge "going all-in with a jack-nine of spades after a flop yielded two more spades" in first acquiring Ray Allen on draft day and then getting that 5th spade on the river by having Garnett fall into his lap courtesy of old Celtic buddy Kevin McHale. Boston just went from being the second-worst team in the league last season to the favorite in their division (which isn't saying much) and a definite contender for the Eastern Conference crown (which is saying quite a bit more). Let's look at the team that Boston had at the end of the season and the team they have as of right now (knowing that more players will need to be signed).

2006/07 team: Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, Allan Ray, Michael Olowokandi, Theo Ratliff, Leon Powe, Kevin Pinkney

2007/08 team: Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Leon Powe, Glen Davis, Brandon Wallace, Gabe Pruitt

Here's what you should deduce from the differences in those two rosters: a lot more talent.....and no depth whatsoever at any position. The Celtics now have the talent to go deep in the playoffs, but there are still a lot of question marks facing them. Who is capable of running the point other than Rajon Rondo? Is Doc Rivers the right coach for this team? Can Kendrick Perkins do enough to keep KG from killing him prior to the All-Star break? Will Tony Allen be available to play this season after his injury history and legal issues? Will Pierce or Allen be the primary "go-to" guy in late game situations? Lots of questions and quite a few roster holes to fill over the next few months.

Danny Ainge came away the big winner in this situation, having saved his job and his reputation in New England, but I believe that Minnesota got a decent return for the face of their franchise for the past decade. They weren't in a position to build around Garnett any longer so, much like Philly did last year in trading away Allen Iverson (and vastly improving afterwards, it is worth noting), the Timberwolves decided to rebuild with youth that will center around promising young big man Al Jefferson. Combine the talents of Jefferson with players like Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants and they could follow the pattern of success that the Chicago Bulls have had over the past few seasons. They will need to ship out players like Marko Jaric, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount to achieve the desired result, though.

I realize that I just stated that Minnesota was not a "loser" in this trade, but Danny Ainge just said something that forces me to reiterate that you should not, under any circumstances, play poker with this man. He was talking about how much time they had invested in Jefferson, Gomes, Green and Telfair and made mention of the "blood, sweat and tears" they had shared together over the past few seasons. He said it all with a straight face and showed nothing that even hinted of guile. That means that he either truly believes all the B.S. that just exited his mouth or he's even crazier than I had him pegged to be. Either way, he's not a man to be trifled with.

As a somewhat unrelated side note that will serve to close this post, don't you have to imagine that Isiah Thomas is hiding under his desk right now?

The Checklist

As we draw ever closer to training camp, I'm compelled to look back over this ever-so-short offseason and see what was accomplished. Judging by the majority of the posts on the Grizzlies Messageboard, you would think that the Grizzlies became a worse team than they were this past disappointing season. I think a careful evaluation of the moves that were made will paint a slightly different picture. There were some glaring, obvious needs that the organization needed to address: GM, Coach, Point Guard, Big Man in the Middle, 3-Point Shooting off the bench. Let's see what was done to fill those gaps.

Coach: Marc Iavaroni
The biggest name on the available coaches market found his way to Beale Street and seems genuinely happy to be here. He has been a valuable assistant in three successful systems and was a solid NBA player for 7 seasons. He is regarded as one of the best "big man" coaches in the game, having been associated with legendary instructor and Hall of Fame coach Pete Newell for 22 years. I don't recall having heard one person say anything negative about the hiring of Iavaroni.

Point Guard: Mike Conley, Jr.
Conley was a vital cog in helping his Ohio State team to the championship game of the NCAA tournament. His leadership and clutch play led to him being named to the All Big Ten First Team. He led the Big Ten in assists and showed the ability to take over games when called upon, resulting in him being selected by the Grizzlies with the 4th overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. His consistency from beyond the arc is the biggest question mark for this young man, as he has shown that he can dish and drive at the highest of levels.

Outside Shooting: Casey Jacobsen
One of the most feared shooters in college during his time with Stanford, Jacobsen's talents haven't always translated well to the NBA since he was drafted in 2002 by the Phoenix Suns. A two-time All American in college, Jacobsen spent last season with the Brose Baskets, where he was named Finals MVP after his team won the German Basketball championship. While no one should expect him to suddenly become a lockdown defender or an amazing dunker overnight, there should be no doubt that he is capable of providing the perimeter shooting that the Grizzlies will undoubtedly need in short bursts throughout the season, also allowing for players like Mike Miller to take the occasional game off to avoid fatigue during the grueling NBA regular season.

Big Man: Darko Miličić and Andre Brown
Darko Miličić has been one of the most scrutinized players in the NBA since he was drafted in 2003 after LeBron James and before Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Only 17 when he entered the league, there are many that think his first two years in the league with Detroit were spent in a situation that didn't allow for much evaluation, given that he was behind two perennial All-Stars in Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace. After being traded to Orlando in February 2006, Darko was provided with more playing time to display the potential that led Joe Dumars to select him with the #2 overall pick. At 7'0" tall and a solid 270 lbs., Darko seems to be the prototype for the complementary player that the Grizzlies have been searching for to place beside Pau Gasol for nearly 4 seasons. With the ability to put up double digits in both scoring and rebounding on any given night, he has also proven to be a capable shotblocker, having recorded 2+ blocks in several games last season. At only 22 years old, he is still 4-5 years away from the prime of his career.

Andre Brown is a virtual unknown for many Grizz fans, given that he only appeared in 38 games for Seattle last season, recording double digit minutes in merely 10 of them. By all accounts, he is a solid rebounder with great athleticism and leaping ability who runs the floor exceptionally well. Provided the scouting reports and evaluations are true, then he should fit in with the uptempo system that Coach Iavaroni is reputed to be installing in Memphis.

GM: Chris Wallace
Wallace didn't exactly have a sterling track record, having been part of one of the lowest points in Boston Celtics' history. His relatively short stint as the man in charge with one of the most storied franchises in the NBA didn't inspire a lot of confidence among the already gunshy fanbase in Memphis upon his hiring. So far though, he has managed to fill all the needs that the team had at the time ofhis arrival. Of course, it is easy to be optimistic prior to training camp -- the real answers will come to light during the regular season, when the fans are able to see just how well Conley, Darko, Jacobsen and Brown are able to perform under the bright lights.

All in all, I'd have to say that this has been one of the most successful offseasons in Memphis Grizzlies history, given that every need was filled with one of the best available candidates in each case. There is much reason to be optimistic for the future -- and given the season we all just experienced, that is good news indeed.

Shocking Free Agent Season

Marc Iavaroni promised to be on a free agent's doorstep on July 1st. Instead he was in Memphis preparing for the summer rookie camp.

Michael Heisley told the Grizz faithful that the team was going to focus on a significant big man on the inside to please Pau Gasol. Then it was reported that the Chris Wallace was in Argentina talking to Andres Nocioni?

Memphis was told by Chris Wallace they would be shocked with Memphis' free agent move this summer. So far nothing has happened.

I think it is safe to say most of their fans are shocked so far.

As the first official day that NBA free agents could sign contracts comes to an end, the Memphis Grizzlies have been noteworthy for their lack of offers more than who they are looking at.

Today some former big named players the Grizzlies were reportedly interested in at one time or another signed contracts all over the league, Chauncey Billups, Rashard Lewis, even Andres Nocioni, have all signed contracts with teams but still not even a rumor that a Grizzlies contract offer was refused. The Grizzlies are one of only two teams in the NBA below the salary cap and the other team, the Charlotte Bobcats, already has Emeka Okefor, Sean May, Walter Hermann and Primoz Brezac so big men probably aren't high on their list of free agent signees.

So Memphis should be in the cats bird seat to make a play at whatever big man they want. The best two, Anderson Varejao and Darko Milicic, are both available with the $8 miilion plus the Grizz have to offer. What is Chris Wallace waiting on?

Naturally Wallace doesn't have the 'complete autonomy' to make a deal that Jerry West reportedly had but the names available weren't a secret. Hasn't Wallace had time to contact both big men, find out their price, talk to Heisley and still be prepared to make an offer by now? Why hasn't the team made a move yet?

Maybe the team is hesitant to make an offer on Varejao because the Cavs has promised to match any offer. Perhaps the team is reconsidering their options now that Darko is an unrestricted free agent with the Rashard Lewis deal. What ever the reason Memphis fans were promised action and so far they have gotten nothing.

Is Wallace pursuing a trade route instead of simply dropping money in free agency? It would appear that there may be more talent available in a trade than is available in the free agent market but what do the Grizzlies have to offer in such a trade?

As it stands now there is no action, lots of silence and plenty of fan frustration.

The Grizzlies Draft Tonight

I honestly am completely confused about the team's moves tonight.

I think that is what makes it so exciting!

The good news is that I don't believe we will make a mistake no matter which of the players we take. Horford is a strong PF that reminds me of Karl Malone. Mike Conley is an ultrafast PG ala Tony Parker. Brandon Wright is an exciting uptempo PF in the mold of Boris Diaw but with greater potential. Joakim Noah is a high energy player that could be a Tyson Chandler type of player. His combination of defense and speed would seem to fit in perfectly with the style of play we have been told to expect from Iavaroni.

How can we go wrong?

Of course there is still danger in picking a player who doesn't turn out to be as good as someone else as a rookie. Horford could be another undersized PF who can't get to the ball without that size. Conley hasn't got a reliable outside shot and with teams packing the lane against him it could make it more difficult to get the ball to Pau. Brandon Wright is weak compared to most NBA players and is the farthest player from being NBA ready. Will he continue to develop while fighting the grind of the NBA season? Joakim Noah has no range on his shot and would clog the lane making it more difficult for Pau to operate.

I see the pros and cons of all the rookies. I don't believe in the long run anyone will question our pick but Memphis is funny that way. People still criticize the Drew Gooden selection despite him starting in the NBA finals this season and nearly averaging a double double and his trade brought us the 2nd best player on the team currently.

One thing for sure is that the rumors about tonight has helped break down the disconnect with the fans. For that I am grateful.

Is Wallace the Right Man?

Memphis is reportedly on the verge of hiring their new GM according to the Boston Globe. Ron Tillery wrote an article stating that a pool of NBA executives believe this to be true as well.

Why? Because Wallace and West are friends, both from West Virginia and West believes he can exert some control over the front office while technically in retirement. That would be similiar to the Mitch Kupchak hire in LA. Kupchak was supposed to be West's hand picked successor as well.

So is it a good thing that Wallace, hand picked by the legend himself, is going to move to Memphis? His track record as a GM is rather spotty. Wallace made 13 trades in 5 seasons as the GM of the Boston Celtics but his best move was picking Paul Pierce in the draft at #10 according to Hoopshype.com. Sounds great doesn't it but the players taken immediately ahead of Pierce were Dirk Nowitski, Larry Hughes, Jason Williams and Vince Carter. Bonzi Wells went immediately after Pierce. So Wallace's best move was thinking U of Kansas player Paul Pierce was better than Bonzi Wells from Ball St. Really went out on a limb to find that sleeper didn't he. And after all, getting a great player at #10 is more a statement of the mistakes other GM's drafting a head of him made than a statement of the intelligence of Wallace isn't it?

This is also the man who drafted Jerome Moiso with the 11th overall pick in the 2000 draft and traded two second round picks for Josip Sesar. He missed out on a few players of note from that draft like Etan Thomas (12th), Hedo Turkoglu (16th), Desmond Mason (17th), Quentin Richardson (18th), Jamaal Magliore (19th), Speedy Claxton (20th), Mo Peterson (21st), DeShawn Stevenson (23rd), Primoz Brezac (27th) and of course Jake Tsakaldis (25th). Even Big Jake had a better career than Jerome Moiso! Those 2 second round picks meant he didn't get Michael Redd, Marco Jaric, Jake Vsokuhl, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera, Jason Hart or Brian Cardinal.

But that is understandable since drafting is more art than science right?

He served faithfully under Rick Pittino and Danny Ainge. Two leaders with no previous experience running a team. Maybe that messed him up. Wallace has had experience scouting college players. That would be very helpful right now with the most important draft of the year taking place June 28th. Of course it is questionable just how effective his input will be since that is only 11 days away and he hasn't even been hired yet.

The pros of Wallace are that he has more experience scouting college players than any other GM, he has a good relationship with West so he has a mentor to help advice him and he has experience in Boston. The negatives are the he worked for Rick Pittino and Danny Ainge, that he didn't really translate all that scouting experience into excellent picks when he was solely responsible for the Celtics draft and the fans aren't really excited by his hire. Unlike the Iavaroni hire this one is being looked at with dread not excitement.

So is he the right man or does he just have the right connections?

What's the Plan?

Adm. Painter: What's his plan?
Jack Ryan: His plan?
Adm. Painter: Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan.
From The Hunt for Red October

If only the same could be said about the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies announced today via the ‘re-energized’ owner Michael Heisley that the search for a new GM will continue for at least another week. Great news I suppose. That means Chris Wallace and his dubious history at Boston is not being given the job…yet. But it does raise a few questions as well.

Like what is the plan? Jerry West announced his intention to step down as GM on April 17th. That was over 55 days ago. How is another week going to clear up what has been so uncertain since April 17th? And why are there two new candidates emerging now instead of earlier in the process? What was the plan starting back on April 17th to replace Jerry West? Was their a plan in place anticipating that Mr. West would retire? Why did the Grizzlies leadership never interview Sam Presti, the Assistant GM at San Antonio, who signed with Seattle. Shouldn’t Presti have been interviewed early in the process as well if the team was still looking at realistic candidates?

Did Heisley assume that alleged #1 pick David Griffin would accept the position and when he withdrew his name the team no longer had any idea who they wanted?

The only logical explanation I can think of for not interviewing Presti in the beginning is that the Grizzlies felt they already had their man. After all the only person to pull his name out of consideration was David Griffin. So it appears that Grizzlies had all their eggs in one basket and did other interviews for appearances only. Now that they didn’t get their #1 choice and Presti is off the market they need to start doing serious interviews to find a legitimate candidate.

I hope that wasn’t their plan all along. Can you imagine the business meeting discussing that stragegy?

Jerry: I'm retiring.
Heisley: Well I want you to help me pick a successor and don't we need a head coach too?
Jerry: Marc Iavaroni and David Griffin are your men. I will throw together a few other names but that is who you want.
Heisley: Fine well after we hire them what do we do?
Jerry: Well let me do the draft of course. I would love to get my picture taken with Greg Oden.
Heisley: Okay so that is the plan then...

This apparent lack of a cohesive strategy has been happening all off-season for the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies were regular chatty Kathy’s before the lottery with articles being posted daily about how this draft was going to change the face of the franchise. After the lottery it took 8 days for any news out of the Grizzlies leadership. It was like they weren’t even prepared with talking points for this outcome despite their being a far greater likelihood of the team getting the fourth pick than the first. Boston was equally devastated by the outcome and yet the next day Ainge and Rivers were in front of the camera’s spewing the company line about how the team was excited about the potential at the 5 spot and how this wasn’t the end of the world for the franchise.

What was the Grizzlies plan?

The Grizzlies hung their hats on Marc Iavaroni as their next coach but when the negotiations got difficult it appeared the team had no other plan of attack. If Iavaroni didn’t take the job what was the plan? Larry Brown was brought in a dismissed as a candidate soon afterwards. No one knows for sure if Donovan was actually offered a contract or not (and I don't believe that he was). Beyond those two names no one knows what the leadership of the Grizz had planned. Let’s see, the team doesn’t appear to have a plan on who they want as GM since Griffin resigned with Phoenix. The Grizzlies don’t seem to have a plan on what to do if they didn’t get a top 2 pick in the lottery. Luckily we will never know what the Grizzlies were going to do if Marc Iavaroni hadn’t accepted the Grizzlies offer.

Does this team have a plan for the future at all or are they going to continue to wing it until the draft?

LeBron James is not the saviour of the NBA

This isn't a post that will denounce LeBron James or his accomplishments. If that's what you're looking for, then move along. At the same time, this isn't a piece that will exalt "The King" either, so be prepared for what is to follow.

I would not even had to have seen the final game of the series between the Pistons and the Cavaliers to have known who won the next day when listening to talk radio. The effusive praise being spouted forth engulfed me like a swimming pool full of Jell-O (quite a sight to behold, by the way) -- and it all centered on one man: LBJ. "LeBron has saved the Finals", "LeBron saved the fanbase of the NBA", "LeBron has proven his doubters wrong", "This is the coming out party for LeBron". These were the things I heard over and over that morning and have continued to hear over the past few days. Well, I don't agree with all of them and I'm about to tell you why.

First, let's address the issue of LeBron "saving us" from another Spurs vs. Pistons NBA Finals. I might have been the only one who remembers what a fantastic series that was.....albeit mostly because of the outstanding final three games, since the first four were somewhat boring due to their lack of suspense. Both the Spurs and the Pistons play phenomenal fundamental team basketball -- the way basketball was meant to be played, in fact. After the lottery results were announced, some of us settled in to watch the Spurs-Jazz playoff game that followed. Time and again we were amazed at the crisp passing and movement by the Spurs on offense, as well as their ability to help each other on defense. Was it as "entertaining" as watching the Suns run and gun? No. Was it still a joy to watch a team execute plays perfectly over and over? Absolutely. The Pistons play the same way, as the Spurs, which makes for a lack of contrasting styles, but is a display of the fundamentals of basketball that has been sorely lacking for some time now. So, count me out of the group that thinks that LeBron "saved us" from something by willing his team to the Finals.

I do believe that LeBron's emergence will help create new fans, draw interest from the "casual fans" and will certainly help the television ratings, I think that Cleveland's presence in the Finals will be a short-lived blessing for them. I think that LeBron has managed to do two things that most people are not considering. He has met very high expectations.....and simultaneously raised them for the remainder of his career. Chip and I discussed this the other day, in fact. By making the Finals in only his 4th year as a pro, he has actually reached the unrealistic bar that was set for him before he even got drafted. Unfortunately for him, now the expectations are going to be raised to the point of people expecting, nay demanding a championship next season, even though he has the worst supporting cast I've seen since watching Jimmy Chitwood play for Hickory High. Larry Bird had more help at Indiana State, I think. But, if there is one thing I've come to know, it is that once you have proven you can do something, then it becomes the "new standard". If you don't believe me, look at how the expectations were raised for the Memphis Grizzlies after vaulting from 28 wins to 50 the next year. By the time the next season had begun, people were talking about title contention! Don't ever forget that the word "fan" is short for "fanatic".....and fanatics are rarely ever coherent or lucid about the things nearest and dearest to their hearts.

So having said all that, let me conclude by saying that LeBron has had a remarkable run so far this postseason and that I hope his team will have a very competitive series with San Antonio over the next few weeks. Let's not have him fitted for a new crown, robe and scepter just yet though.

What Do We Care? We're Disconnected

Michael Heisley said he was feeling more energized about the team and was going to get more involved in the operations and then attended about one game from January to the end of the season. The Grizzlies had an interim coach that was the laughing stock of the league, a highly compensated individual who wanted to be traded and a team with more ‘injuries’ than any two teams in the league but Heisley still couldn’t make it to a game. The fans were never given a reason for this.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

The Memphis local owners wanted to buy the team from Heisley but apparently didn’t want to enter into a bidding war with Heisley using their offer as leverage to get others to pay more for the franchise. Heisley refused to accept those terms and refused to discuss the situation with the media or the fans.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

At the end of the season it was announced that West was retiring on June 30. This was to allow him to make the draft pick, pick a new coach and a replacement before retiring. Why in the world the team would want to allow the outgoing GM to make all of these decisions? What’s more the team didn’t come forth and tell us what they were looking for in a GM, a coach or really the draft. Not one press conference or Chalk Talk meeting with season ticket holders to discuss the franchise’s direction or hopes for the future.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

The press reported that Heisley was interviewing Larry Brown and Kiki Vandeweghe. Upon hearing the news was released Heisley stated that he wasn’t going to conduct the hiring process in the press. He wasn’t going to talk about who he was interviewing or why. He wasn’t going to announce what he wanted in the new GM, Coach or VP of Operations. Heisley also wasn’t thinking about talking to the fans to explain what his thoughts were on the type of person needed to do the job.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

The team lost the lottery and not one word came from the Grizzlies front office except Jerry West’s rant that the lottery is a terrible way to punish bad teams. No statement on how the team was going to move forward after the disappointment. No comment on the players that should be available at the fourth spot. Not a single comment at all. The fans were left in the dark about how this outcome affected the team and its future plans.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

The team hired a man with no experience as a head coach without knowing who his boss will be on July 1st. He talked glowingly of the players Memphis has under contract but then stated he didn’t know what style his team would play until he got to know his players better. He then left for Spain to talk to the highest paid player on the team to massage his concerns? How he would do that without knowing what style of play the team was going to play or how the teammates perform would be a good question that hasn’t been asked.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

All through this period the Memphis Commercial Appeal’s beat writer on the Grizzlies has been criticized for not reporting certain stories like the summer league games, player injuries and player criticisms of the team. All the while he has a morning radio show where daily he talks about how much he dislikes the team and the way they do things.

What do we care? We’re disconnected.

Now that the lottery is set and the deepest draft in recent history is staring the team in the face the Grizzlies announced that they will concentrate on only their single draft pick and that while they will be bringing in players to work out the workouts will be closed to the media, closed to the public and there will not be any discussions about the workouts.

Guess what. We don’t care. We’re disconnected.

I can’t help thinking back on the Grizzlies comments about being unsure of why the team has disconnected with the fans. I always thought it was because the team didn’t understand the Memphis mentality. They didn’t understand that what works by the Great Lake in Chicago and the beaches of Los Angeles may not translate well to the cotton fields of Memphis. Memphis has always been a community that relied on contact and personal interaction. We are a society of meeting for backyard barbeques more than disco dance halls and sports bars. We don’t feel that knowing your neighbors and what they are doing is nosy and intrusive. It shows we care. We extend the family from the house to neighborhood and to the city far more than people do in other parts of the country. Sure there is still a lot of gossip but when people need help the communication network gets the message out fast and people come running.

So why hasn’t Memphis come running to help the Grizzlies? Has this first taste of real big city action already numbed us to indifference like it has in so many other places around the nation? Simply put we have been told and shown that the Grizzlies don’t want us poking our noses in their business. Get the door slammed in your face enough times and eventually you stop caring. If Heisley and the Grizzlies front office don’t want Memphians to be concerned and get irritated when the fans ask questions then don’t act surprised or upset when the fans stop asking and stop caring and stop coming to games. Want to know why the fans are disconnected? Because you told the fans you don’t want us to be connected.

So why should we care?

Is Lowry's Injury More Serious that We Have Been Told?

Has anyone considered the possibility that Lowry will never be the player we saw last year again?

Lowry broke a bone in his wrist that is very difficult to heal properly. The fact that he had to have two surgeries implies that there were complications with the healing process, most likely blood flow was restricted to the bone. Arthritis is guaranteed from what I have heard but whether it begins at 23 or 43 or 63 is not known. What is of a more immediate threat is that the bone has not healed properly causing restricted movement. He may not be able to use his hand as freely as he has been accustomed to in the past.

Obviously the Grizzlies would not want this information to leak out to the press if it is in fact true. That would make the ability to acquire a point guard even more expensive. I think they may be preparing people however by certain comments and actions they have made of late.
Don't be surprised if the Grizzlies make a move to acquire a PG in the draft. Conley is a possibility but I hear that West is more enamored with Acie Law. If the Grizzlies make a move to acquire another lottery pick it should be a warning sign that the Grizzlies are very concerned with Lowry's situation.

What Now?

It's been over a month since my last post --mostly because I was extremely busy, but partly because I was ready for a break from the ever-present slide towards morose negativity revolving around the Memphis Grizzlies organization -- but now I'm back to assess what direction the team needs to take from this point forward. It has been one week since the draft lottery, when I joined GrizzMAN, memphis slim and chipc3 for an evening of pontificating and commiserating. In the seven days since that fateful decision was handed out, I have come to accept the results (with much less of a "Chicken Little complex" than many of my fellow fans) and have made a decision on what needs to happen next for the Grizzlies.

Obviously, the first set of things that needs to be taken care of involve the team's infrastructure and front office. The team needs a new owner (or at the very least, an accountable owner), a new GM and a new coaching staff. This is clearly the opening move of a rebuilding of sorts for this team. I've already detailed the people that I think are suitable for these positions (GM's: Presti, Griffin, Vandeweghe; Coaches: Iavaroni, Elie, Carlisle, Van Gundy), so there is no need to rehash that information.

The next step is to address the draft -- most specifically, whether to only select a player with the 4th overall pick or look to make moves to acquire a second (or third) pick, or possibly to move up into the top 2 by grossly overpaying. Over the past week, I've heard every imaginable scenario to do all of these things and here is what I've come up with as a plausible reality.

First, see what interest there is by teams in the lottery looking to move their pick for a future pick or a veteran player -- specifically Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta and Charlotte. There are cases for each of these teams to want to move out of the draft so that they don't have another young player on their roster, but nowhere is that case more evident than in Boston (where they have to placate Paul Pierce almost immediately or risk a situation similiar to the Iverson debacle of last season) or Charlotte (who are very, very long on young talent and very, very short on veteran leadership and consistent scoring). Boston will likely seek an arm, a leg and several key organs to move out of the 5th pick, so I don't know that they are a viable partner unless the team has decided to part ways with Gasol. Charlotte, on the other hand, might be more willing to deal if the Grizzlies are willing to give up Mike Miller, who could instantly provide that scoring and veteran presence to the Bobcats.

Trading Miller leads us to the next part of my analysis: who the Grizzlies should take with the #4 pick. Unless they are absolutely certain that they will be able to pick up a second top 10 pick and that he would be available at that position, I believe that Corey Brewer is the best pick for the organization. Paired with Rudy Gay on the wings for the next 5-10 years, they would provide the Grizz with a formidable combination of defensive intensity, athleticism and scoring. Add in the intensity that Kyle Lowry brought to the table in his brief stint last season, and you could have a trio on the wings very similar to the Pistons' group of Billups/Hamilton/Prince. The only other player I see as a viable choice at that position is Al Horford, who is about .007 behind Brewer in my current draft analysis, but still a few full points ahead of Mike Conley, Brandan Wright and Yi Jianlin. In other words, I'd rank those two players at #3 and #4 at the very worst as of this moment......and might even take Brewer over Durant. *Send all comments about blasphemy through the appropriate channels.*

If the Grizzlies are able to swing a deal with any other teams in the lottery, then select the best player available there, as well. DO NOT DRAFT BASED ON NEED!!! *Rant Warning* I don't want to see a Bowie over Jordan situation at this point, since this is a very critical juncture for the future of this organization. By the same token, don't overanalyze to the point of taking a project (Marvin Williams) over an obviously great player (Chris Paul). Sound like double-speak? It's not. It is actually the same scenario in both cases. In 1984, Jordan was clearly the best player on the board; in 2005, CP3 was clearly the best player on the board. While I hate to play the "hindsight game", this isn't a case of teams passing up players because of perceived weakness (in the Carlos Boozer is too small or Josh Howard can't adapt to NBA defenses model), but because it seems that NBA GM's all want to "discover talent", rather than recognizing it and drafting accordingly. Sometimes playing it safe comes back to haunt you, as the Grizzlies have witnessed with the draft selections of Drew Gooden, Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones. Other times it pays off, as with the recent selections of Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay.

Ok, back to the present situation. If there was a way to take both Brewer and Horford (both great players who fill needs on the current Grizzlies' roster), then I would welcome it. I don't see it happening, though, so I'd prefer them to take the multi-dimensional Brewer over the solid, Boozer-lite potential and consistency of Horford. The team has done a good job of finagling second-round picks out of teams over the past few seasons, so hopefully they will manage to do that one more time with this being an especially deep draft.

Let me take a step back to address something I think a few fans might question, which is my willingness to so casually part with Mike Miller. That is a decision that has been made with a lot of careful consideration, so don't think of it as a flippant response to my current infatuation with the potential of Corey Brewer. I heard Geoff Calkins on the radio last week with a trade proposal that would have sent Miller to the Nuggets for Marcus Camby and as I contemplated that scenario, I must admit that I grew to like it more and more. Moves like that will need to be made in order for this organization to move forward -- much like the Battier to Houston trade was a necessity, no matter how painful it made this past season or how sorely his presence was missed, both on and off the court.

The last thing I want to address is what to do with Pau Gasol. I have heard both sides of the argument and remain convinced that the team has to keep him through this offseason. If a deal comes up that is beneficial, then I understand why they would want to part with him, but I don't see any teams out there that won't view the Grizzlies as being in a position of weakness at this point. If they wait until the season has started, and perhaps one of the contenders starts off slowly, then they will be in a position of equality at the very worst. There is virtually no way for them to receive anything back that would balance out what they would be losing in trading away Gasol during the offseason. I'll take his boring consistency through the season over a draft pick and a couple of spare parts from another team. And for all the complaints about his wallflower routine in the 4th quarters of several games, he is remarkably consistent. If his scoring goes down, then his rebounding and shot-blocking almost always go up. That's not a bad thing to be in a league where 25 ppg scorers have been known to fall off the face of the earth quite suddenly.

In conclusion, I think it is obvious that this organization needs to start at the top and then work its way down in order to solve all of its issues and problems. Getting the local owners to make a solid bid for the team would be an excellent start in my book. Putting pressure on Heisley to accept that bid would be even better. Installing a GM and coach before the draft would be intelligent moves, too. But what do I know? I'm just the paying customer, after all.