2008 NBA Draft Primer (Part 1)

I had hoped to do my first One Game Breakdown by now but after the Pau Gasol trade added a late first rounder to the Memphis Grizzlies mix, I had to start watching more games that included more of the late 1st round hopefuls. Hopefully this is the year the Grizzlies get a little lottery luck. Now the more college games that I watch, it is becoming very apparent that there are very few players who are capable of coming in and helping a NBA team next season. The question for Chris Wallace and the Grizz staff is: Do you take the player most ready to compete now or the player with the most long range potential? I think the answer is different depending upon the player. I also think that the Grizzlies have to hit a home run in this draft. They need a player that will be making a big impact on games. They don't need a stat machine. They need an impact player. There are five important things that the Grizzlies need this summer:

(1) Swagger
(2) Athleticism
(3) Size - Length
(4) Basketball IQ
(5) Winning Mentality

With those five qualities in mind I am going to present my Memphis Grizzlies Draft Board. Part 1 will be the top 15 players and Part 2 will conclude with players 16-30 with regards to the Grizzlies.

1. Michael Beasley - Kansas State - This one is a no brainer at this point. Beasley is more perfect for the Grizzlies need then Kevin Durant was last year. He is a merciless scorer, a tenacious rebounder, and has the attitude to dominate. His versatility will allow him to excel in a fast paced game or a half court game. Will be able to punish teams that go small with his board work. He will become the prototype for the "Phoenix" 4.

2. Derrick Rose - University of Memphis - Does not fit a need for the Grizzlies but is the second best talent in the draft. Big for his position and has the tendency to shine in bigger games. Outside shot is coming along and his ability to get to the rim is NBA level. Might cause a log jam but it is a problem Wallace would gladly deal.

3. DeAndre Jordan - Texas A&M - A physical specimen like no other. A true seven footer with the athleticism to match. Draws comparison to Dwight Howard but he isn't there...yet. Whispers of attitude and work ethic problems in school but you have to remember that the coach he is playing for did not recruit him and he is probably one and done so his minutes have been limited even though he is out producing the starters. Will require a lot of background by the team that wants to take him.

4. Blake Griffin - Oklahoma University - A muscular power forward. Not quite as polished offensively as Beasley but just as mean on the boards. Has said he will not come out but if he peeks at his draft status he might get an offer he can't refuse.

5. Anthony Randolph - LSU - Blowing up the draft charts right now. Long, lanky bean pole right now at 6'11 and 220lbs. However, remember Chris Bosh came in a t 225lbs and just last year Brandan Wright came in at an even 200lbs. He is a great game time athlete. He makes plays with his athleticism and could have a future as a 3/4/5 in an uptempo system.

6. Marreese Speights - University of Florida - Another physically gifted big man that might not declare with the glut of freshman likely to enter the draft and the good advice given by his coach to the last batch of potential NBA players at Florida. Speights has one of the quickest second jumps in college basketball and he uses it on both ends of the court for put back dunks and quick blocks. Dunks everything around the rim. Lacks in awareness but this is probably due to inexperience. No real offensive game to speak of at this time.

7. OJ Mayo - University of Southern California - Trying to hold off Jerryd Bayless as the best combo guard in college. He has the size and shot to be special. Lacks in over the top athleticism but is real adept in creating his own shot and creating for teammates. He is not Kobe or LeBron but he is a damn fine combo guard prospect.

8. Jerryd Bayless - University of Arizona - Playing point guard most nights especially with Nick Wise injured, Bayless is very good at getting into open spaces for clear shots or creating contact and getting to the line. Reminds me of Monta Ellis with range but he has more natural point guard instincts. However, he is a scorer first and does it well. Think of an American version of Juan Carlos Navarro but more athletic.

9. Eric Gordon - Indiana University - Hit the college scene in a blaze and has not really cooled off. However, his handles really need work and he lacks a developed mid range game that keeps him a notch below Mayo and Bayless. He has more range on his jump shot but does not get the elevation of the other two and that could be a problem because he has the least ability to move over to point guard. Top notch athlete and strong for his position but has holes.

10. Danillo Gallinari - Armani Jeans Milano - Knows the game. Supposedly has grown to almost 6'10 which if true would help him leap frog the combo guards for Memphis purposes. High basketball IQ and has been battle tested at the highest European levels of play. He should excel in the faster pace, less physical NBA where his ball handling will be top notch on the wing. He is just 19 so further development is likely.

11. Brook Lopez - Stanford - Personally, I have not been impressed with him as an NBA prospect. He has the size and the body but seems easily pushed off the block in college. Shoots less than 50% which is alarming for someone playing primarily in the post. Benefits from playing beside his twin brother and is not a dominant defensive presence (I like Robin more as a future NBA player). However, his size and production will make him a lottery pick and he will more than likely disappoint.

12. Nicolas Batum - Le Mans Sarthe Basket - French product who shined in Memphis at the Nike Hoop Summit. Looks to be a smother version of Rudy Gay. Great athlete and seems to have more court vision. Needs work on his handle and his shot but is somewhat productive in Europe (not on Gallinari's level though). Shows flashes of greatness.

13. Darrell Arthur - Kansas University - A great offensive player that is showing more on the boards lately. Not going to shine statistically on a deep Kansas team but has a lot of weapons in his arsenal offensively. Has a tendency to drift in games especially defensively.

14. Kevin Love - UCLA - A beast on the boards. Simply goes and gets every missed shot on both ends of the court. Not tall and not a great athlete but gets balls tall athletes do not get. Has range out to the college three point line. Decent back to the basket game and great outlet passer. Will have a place on the next level and likely will work his way into a significant role on a very good team in the NBA.

15. Roy Hibbert - Georgetown - Colossus. Very big player that lacks the end to end mobility of the better center prospects. However, he knows what to do in the post. Has a decent face up game. Although he is a senior, he is only 21. He really needs a professional conditioning program to take him to the next level. Will cause problems in the NBA with his size alone. If he can increase his end to end speed, he has a chance of making an impact even as a rookie. Great post passer.

Mark Cuban Speaks the Truth

Count Dallas owner Mark Cuban among those NBA observers who don't mind the so-called madness going on in Memphis.

He just questions the method sometimes used by Griz owner Michael Heisley, who Cuban communicates with as a friend. Asked to elaborate on his critical comments regarding the Grizzlies' decision to unload Pau Gasol for essentially draft picks and salary-cap relief, Cuban reiterated that the Griz could have received more for the skilled 7-footer.

"I don't know who gave it to him, but Michael Heisley got bad information," Cuban said. "That's all I can say."

As for Heisley's decision to move toward youth and fiscal responsibility, Cuban offered no argument against the Grizzlies' mode of rebuilding."It's smart," Cuban said. "You go from never winning to winning some, and then it's not enough. So you realize that being in the middle is the worst place to be in the NBA. You can't get the big draft picks. The curse of the NBA is multiple years of 40-win teams. There's nothing you can really do with that.

"Donald Sterling (the Los Angeles Clippers owner) once told me that there are only so many generational players. The only way you're going to get generational players is by being a bad team. Cleveland was bad when they got LeBron (James). Portland was bad when they got Greg Oden. Miami was bad when they got Dwyane Wade. You've got to be bad and hope the ping pong balls fall your way. ... Memphis is a basketball town. The media will kill them over and over. But the ping pong balls fall the right way and, boom, you're back."

This appeared in the print version of The Commercial Appeal and it shows why Mark Cuban is perhaps the best owner in professional sports. He gets it. He understands that it takes a special player to build a foundation of competing in the NBA at the highest levels. Memphis simply has never had that "generational" type player on their team. In fact, it is the entire reason behind the Pau Gasol trade. Chris Wallace is trying to put the Memphis Grizzlies in position to get a generational type player via draft, trade, or free agency.

I always look back on that almost 2 year old article by Dennis Gallagher on 82Games.com titled Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team. He makes it easy to understand. It breaks down building a contender into a 3 step process. Remember I said easy to understand not easy to execute. Here it is again:

1. Acquire a championship superstar: Gallagher defines this as a player that was 1st team All NBA or 1st team All Defense (in the prior 4 seasons). It is not a secret that top level talent wins in the NBA. The notion that Detroit bucked the superstar trend is simply an under appreciation for the impact Ben Wallace had on the game defensively. He was Defensive Player of the Year 4 out 5 seasons. Acquiring a high level player is a must as every NBA champion has had a 1st Team All NBA or 1st Team All Defense type of player. So it is best that an NBA GM hedges his bets when starting the rebuilding process and acquire as many young players as possible with the potential to reach one of these teams and to make sure his team is in position to acquire one if they ever hit the open market.



2. Add a championship sidekick (or two): Every NBA champion has included a top 10 player or a top 10 defender as a sidekick and over half (57%) have included two players with previous All NBA or All Defense selection. With the way the Western Conference is stacking up, I think it is a safe bet that two will be the norm for a few years.


3. Make sure either the superstar or sidekick can defend: No team has won an NBA title without a top 10 quality defender. I think every Grizzlies fan can agree that defensive ability is essential to success and lack of it is a recipe for failure.

Is this the NBA gospel? Maybe not but I think it is very hard to argue with it. I think it is something to be considered this summer when GM Chris Wallace is making decisions. If the ultimate goal is to have a parade on Beale Street then somethings can't be ignored. Priority #1 has to be to getting a special offensive talent or a defensive presence this summer.

Coach Marc Iavaroni agrees. "We are going to make some changes and get some firepower," Iavaroni said. "That is what we wanted with the (salary cap) flexibility and that is why we feel confident moving forward. We know what we need or at least we are finding out more so." I think Iavaroni really wants to see if Rudy Gay has what it takes to get his game to the next level. The level in which he impacts the game. With just 27 games remaining, Gay has got to show he has the tenacity to really get after it. Preferably on both ends but either offense or defense would be sufficient.

The 2008 NBA draft allows us an opportunity to get a generational talent. This is not a sure thing as we saw in 2007. Usually there is one generational talent in a draft. A good draft has two and a great draft has three or more. The last great draft was in 2003 and unfortunately Stu Jackson traded our shot for Otis Thorpe. Since coming to Memphis there have been only ten generational level talents drafted in the first round: Yao Ming (2002), Amare Stoudemire (2002), LeBron James (2003), Carmelo Anthony (2003), Chris Bosh (2003), Dwayne Wade (2003), Dwight Howard (2004), Chris Paul (2005), Greg Oden (2007), and Kevin Durant (2007).

So it is not a matter of having a high lottery pick, most likely a team needs the #1 pick in the right draft for this route to work. The chances of getting a generational talent with a #3 or #4 pick is not good. However, the team can stock pile very good players in hopes of combining them to trade for a generational talent when they come on the market. In 2008, I am guessing that there is one generational talent in Michael Beasley. At best there is another one lurking like in the 2005 with Chris Paul but I doubt anyone predicts who that may be before the 2008-09 season begins.

The cap room Chris Wallace attained also must be used to attempt to bring in a generation talent. The good thing about free agency is that it is all on the Grizzlies staff to identify and convince the right player to take our money. Currently Philadelphia, Golden State(if Baron Davis opts out), the Clippers (if Elton Brand and Corey Maggette opt out), Miami (if Shawn Marion opts out), Sacramento (if Ron Artest opts out), and Washington (if Gilbert Arenas opts out) stand as our main competition for free agents. Once everything shakes out it will probably be only Memphis, Philly and Sacramento as the major free agency players.

The 2008 NBA Free Agent class is filled with young players that are 3 years or more away from hitting their prime. Josh Smith(22), Monta Ellis(22), Andis Biedrens(21), and Luol Deng(22) have all shown flashes of being able to be either great players or great defenders. It is a matter of projecting which players have the ability to blossom even further with an expanded role and more leadership responsibility. The Grizz have some assets to offer teams in a sign and trade for restricted free agents including the ability to provide a huge trade exception.

Needless to say, Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni have a busy off season ahead of them. It will be this off season that defines their stay in Memphis. If they make good decisions this summer than the Gasol trade will become a distant memory. However, draft unwisely or hold on to your cap space like a miser and it mights just be them in the FedEx Forum this fall...alone.