Tsunami in Memphis

Wikipedia defines a tsunami as: a series of waves created when a body of water, such as an ocean, is rapidly displaced. Basically what occurs is that an earthquake causes the ocean floor to drop at a certain point, while raising it at another point, causing the temporary displacement of water. As a result of this, the water is sucked back from the shoreline to fill that point where there is a void, revealing areas that are normally completely submerged, only it then returns to the shore, because the water is only displaced temporarily. The incoming water is the tsunami, which destroys everything in its path and often arrives with little to no warning.

I can see people rolling their eyes right now. "First, he talks about astronomy and now we get a lesson on geology and oceanography?" Calm down -- I'll bring it back to the NBA, just you watch.

The Earthquake: Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers

When Gasol was traded, the shock wave was felt throughout the league. Everyone knew that something major had just occurred and that something had to be done as a result of it. Over the next few weeks, Phoenix trades for Shaq and Dallas trades for Kidd in an attempt to keep up. The Grizzlies hunker down to play out the rest of their season amid the chaos they helped to create.

The Water Recedes: The remaining Grizzlies show what they are made of.

When the water pulls back, it reveals portions of the shoreline that would otherwise be submerged, allowing you a better understanding of what was beneath the surface. In the case of some players, they responded positively, as Rudy, Conley, Kyle and Hakim all had productive 2nd halves. Others showed that they are still the same player that they have always been, which was the case for Mike Miller, Kwame Brown, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins. This isn't to say that these are bad players, but there isn't a lot of untapped potential for them to draw on, as there was for the younger players. There are still a few unknowns at this point in Javaris Crittenton and Darko Milicic, but the franchise got a good read on the team overall. This provided the Grizzlies with valuable information that they needed going into the offseason with 2 first round picks and a substantial amount of cap space.


The Water Crests: Draft Night 2008

When Chris Wallace made the two trades on draft night, netting O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur, the organization did everything in its power to restore hope to a fanbase desperate for a reason to continue believing in this team. Rather than taking the "safe approach" of drafting Kevin Love and Chris Douglas-Roberts, he took a chance on greater potential, which netted him Mayo and Arthur. At this point, the water has reached maximum stored energy. Now the team is left to release that energy upon the rest of the league.


The Tsunami: Playoff Success

I don't expect it to happen overnight -- or even in the next 2 seasons -- but I do expect it to happen sooner than many might have considered. With another good draft and a smart signing or two, the Grizzlies could release all that stored energy and potential upon the league with the same fury that the Hornets displayed this postseason, making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. I look to what New Orleans and Portland have been able to do by collecting young talent in the draft and making timely signings of solid veterans, while not grossly overpaying for glorified role players. This is the model that Memphis should be adhering to, as they implement their plan to return to the playoffs, not just as a mere participant, but as a team to be reckoned with -- a team that other teams do not want to face in the first round. At that point, they will be an unstoppable force. They will have achieved tsunami status.

Early Look at Free Agency

With the season all-but-over for everything except for evaluation purposes, I'd like to take an early look at some prospective free agents. Now without knowing draft position or which players we'll be keeping of our own free agents, it is tough to pinpoint who to really take an interest in at this time. However, even with that in mind, there are a handful of players that I think would be beneficial to the team no matter who they draft or re-sign. As a disclaimer, let me say that I'm not looking at any of the "big name" guys (Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, Monta Ellis, etc.) or any of the higher profile restricted free agents (Andre Igoudala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith, etc.) for this post. These will be mid- to lower-level players that can contribute off the bench or as occasional starters when needed.

Mickael Pietrus - Warriors: The player known as "Air France" was heavily rumored to be on Jerry West's watch list prior to the 2003 draft, which led to the Warriors taking him at #11 before the Grizzlies pick at #13. Pietrus demanded a trade about a month ago when he wasn't getting any playing time in Don Nelson's free-wheelin' system in which he thrived last year. In fact, he even joked with the Grizzlies broadcast team, wondering "if Chris Wallace was in the building, because I'd look good in Memphis".

Pietrus is an athletic SG/SF (6'6", 215 lbs.) who is a capable defender, if prone to foul trouble on occasion. I blame that on Nellie's insistence on a gambling, hacking defensive style that produces turnovers at the expense of giving up hand-check fouls quite often. He's not a terrific outside shooter (career .352%) or free-throw shooter (career .660%), but he is a good slasher and defender, which the Grizzlies can definitely use at the swingman position.

Trevor Ariza - Lakers: Ariza is another athletic slasher with good size (6'8", 210 lbs.), although he has absolutely no outside shot, so the Grizzlies would have to retain Miller or Navarro to complement him when he's on the floor since none of the young PG's are capable perimeter threats either. He played well for L.A. before suffering a broken right foot, but there is some question as to how concerned they are about retaining him with the other talented forwards they have on the roster. He'd make a solid backup to Rudy for the next few years.

Josh Childress (R) - Hawks: Honestly, I want to sign him just for the hairdo. Ok, not just that. I like the idea of a 6'8", 210 lbs. G/F who has a .580 FG% this season. He could start at SG if the team decides to trade Mike Miller or fill in at both SG and SF positions off the bench.

Chris Duhon - Bulls: I know a lot of Bulls fans hate him, but he has a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. I'd love to have him as the primary backup to help the young PG's that remain on the roster. He's a smart player, if a little undersized (6'1", 185 lbs.) in today's NBA.

Eduardo Najera - Nuggets: The guy you love to hate....when he's on the other team. When he's on your team, you defend him with your last breath. Najera is the classic hustle player that does all the dirty work that nobody else thinks is worth their time. He's a poor man's Shane Battier, which the team has missed the last two seasons since Battier was traded to Houston. He's capable of playing either forward position and won't back down from anyone.

DeSagana Diop - Nets: Is he a starter? Not for a legit playoff team in the West, he isn't. But he is a solid defender and shot-blocker with the size (7'0", 275 lbs) to match up with anyone in the league. With only Darko and Jason Collins capable of playing center, he'd be a nice addition.

Louis Amundson (R) - Sixers: I can see the question forming on your lips right now - "Who?" I profiled Amundson in an earlier post and although he hasn't gotten much playing time for Philly this season, my opinion on him hasn't changed much. This 6'9", 225 lbs. forward is an energetic player with great athleticism and a knack for shot-blocking. He wouldn't see much PT here either, but in case you haven't noticed, we need to upgrade our bench so that guys like Andre Brown don't have to see the floor.

James Jones - Trail Blazers: A 6'8", 220 lbs. SF, Jones is familiar with Coach Marc Iavaroni from his time in Phoenix. He's hitting over 48% of his 3-point attempts this season. Besides, David Berri (Wages of Wins) says he's the key to Portland's success and that's good enough for me.

Bonzi Wells - Hornets: And this is where I lose most of you. Hear me out though. Bonzi (or "The Bonzi" in my house) is a solid scorer with an excellent post-up game. At 6'5", 210 lbs. you're not going to see him get pushed around by anyone either. He's not quite the defender he used to be, but he's still a good rebounder and a solid option off the bench.

Those are the players that I'd like to see the front office take a look at if they aren't going to go after any of the "big names" this summer. Chime in with your own thoughts on some of the lower-level players we should target this offseason to upgrade the bench.

Guest Post: Blue Bear Rising

This is our second guest post from reader L3E. If he keeps this up, I might hang up my keyboard.

Blue Bear Rising (or Why the Grizz will be back sooner than you think)

"Off with his head!"

That was the general response in Memphis to Chris Wallace's decision to trade Pau Gasol in February. Even though he finally gave lots of fans what they said they wanted, they were upset that he got back so little in Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and some draft picks. Doesn't help any that sports media continue to blast Wallace, thus making him Memphis' very own Notorious B.I.G.

Meanwhile, fans insist that the only sound they can hear coming out of FedEx Forum these days is the flushing sound of the team going down the toilet, right along with already tepid fan interest in the team.

Then again, there was a time when Galileo was considered a nutjob for saying that the Earth revolved around the Sun, instead of the other way around. Caused quite a controversy, because the way Galileo saw things were quite different than the established norm. . . . not unlike our boys Chris, Iavaroni and perhaps to a lesser degree, Heisley.

I'm not saying that Chris Wallace is Galileo. But it is worth mentioning that Galileo ended up being right after all. And maybe, while the rest of us are looking at the recent roster moves like checkers, Wallace is playing chess--putting his pieces in the proper position to execute his strategy.

I'm a decent chess player (either that, or I just play people who aren't as good as I am). Either way, I'm looking at the Grizzlies chess board, noticing the pieces and the positioning, and I'm thinking the Grizzlies will be back with a vengeance within two years. Here's the breakdown:

1. Who Stays, Who Goes?
Wallace will not blow up the team this summer. One, there's just too much good, young talent. Two, it would undermine Iavaroni's system by shipping out the few players that are familiar with it. That's not to say we'll keep everyone, but there are a few untouchables, I think.

Keepers: Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Darko Milicic, Chris Wallace, Marc Iavaroni. Rudy is the closest thing Memphis has had to a young superstar ever. Aside from him being good for like winning, he's going to be more marketable. Conley continues to draw favorable comparisons to Tony Parker. That can't be bad. And despite his current label as a bust, Darko continues to improve. I think they ride out his contract. As for Wallace and Iavaroni, I think Heisley recognizes that the successful franchises keep their GM and Coach in place for many years. I don't see Heisley pulling the plug on them, unless they completely blow it this summer.

Trade Bait: Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, Brian Cardinal, Hakim Warrick, Jason Collins. I like Mike. And he's our most tradeable asset. Lots of teams want him. Kyle, Javaris and Hak are all young players, who likely will be sought-after by teams needing to add youth. Not saying they're outta here, but they'll be dangled. Cardinal's contract is likely to get packaged with someone else's. Jason Collins' $6.2 million expires after next season, which will make his contract valuable in trades.

Free Agent Question Marks: Juan Carlos Navarro, Kwame Brown. I doubt Kwame's coming back, but thanks for the contract! Juan Carlos . . . tough read. Somebody's going to offer him a nice check. Unless it's outrageous, expect us to match it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wallace let other teams set the salary, then match. This could lead to drawn-out negotiations for JCN, but that's just NBA business.

Outta Here: Aaron McKie, Casey Jacobsen, Andre Brown. McKie goes back to being an assistant coach somewhere, maybe here. Andre Brown plays in Europe. Casey plays at the YMCA.

2. Assets and Mo Assets.
It's widely accepted that in the offseason, it pays for a GM to have four key elements to work with: cap room, draft picks, young talent and expiring contracts. The Grizzlies are drowning in all four.

Cap Room: Wallace expects to have between $12-$14 Million under the salary cap this year. Contrary to popular belief, this will come in handy not just for signing free agents, but for facilitating trades. As Wallace told Herrington: "Teams are going to come to us to facilitate trades and we’re going to be able to go out and look at the needs of other teams and try to create trades that could help us by using that cap room. It’s a tremendous advantage to have that room; you don’t just have to sign a free agent."

Draft Picks: Grizz will have at least two draft picks this year, hopefully our high pick and the Laker's late pick after they win the championship.(!) That gives us two more assets to wheel and deal with in draft day trades.

Young Talent: See "Trade Bait" above.

Expiring Contracts: Okay, "drowning" is a strong word, but Jason Collins' contract is off the books in '09, and he is a serviceable reserve big man. I don't know if Damon's buyout means we still have that contract to trade. Somebody find out for me. (Ed. note: No, we cannot trade Damon's bought out contract.)

3. Picking up the scraps.
This is the actual fun part, for us Grizzlies fans.

In both conferences, but particularly the Western Conference, high expectations for the playoffs, along with the inevitable dashing of those expectations, means that some teams are going to be looking to revamp their rosters after they get put out of the playoffs. In short, there's just not enough room in the Western Conference Finals for Phoenix, San Antonio, LA Lakers and Dallas. PHX and DAL are not locks for the second round, really, and how will that fly after the Shaq and JKidd trades?

Meanwhile, the Knicks, Pacers, Heat, Bucks, Nets and Bulls are likely all looking at serious roster shakeups, and all those teams have at least one or two interesting pieces that might work for us. If the Hawks don't make the playoffs, look for some roster changes there, too.

And just guess who's waiting with plenty of cap room, picks and young talent? In other words, it's likely to be one wild offseason, and the Grizz are perfectly poised to capitalize on it. It's far too early to speculate on who we might be able to acquire, but those who think that name brand players won't come to Memphis obviously haven't been presented with a 8-figure check. And free agents who decline our offers, there are still other GMs who will want to make moves, and some will need our help.

Even if teams don't completely rebuild, you can expect key pieces on several teams to be on the trading block after this season. I'm thinking players like Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Jason Terry, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, David Lee, Udonis Haslem, Michael Redd, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor. This doesn't include free agents like, Elton Brand, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Monta Ellis, Baron Davis and others. Clip this paragraph, because you'll probably see at least one of these names on our roster next fall, maybe two. (Yeah, I said it.)

Remaining Questions.
Is Chris Wallace savvy enough to make the right moves? On one hand, he's often blasted for the job he did with the Celtics. On the other hand, most of those questionable moves were actually mandated by Danny Ainge, who himself essentially went from being a zero to possible Executive of the Year after last offseason. And on the other, other hand, many people forget that on Wallace's watch, before Ainge arrived, the Celtics posted 49 wins in 2001-02 before going to the Eastern Conference Finals. They also made the second round the following year. In short, even with the Gasol trade, the results say that Wallace is a better GM than most think he is. Even that misconception may come in handy in the offseason, if he can do like Ray Charles and play "country dumb."


Can Iavaroni get over the rookie wall as a coach? Undoubtedly, a number of our losses this season weren't all lost by the players; Iavaroni is a first time head coach himself and probably made some bad subs, bad plays, etc. But this fall, he'll be a year older and a year wiser, and have his own history with the returning players. That should count for something.

Will Heisley stick with it? I can't see why not. Heisley needs only to look at our division neighbors in San Antonio to see that a small-market team can thrive as the only pro franchise in town. He also hasn't overlooked that Gregg Popovich has been with the Spurs for nearly 15 consecutive years, and R.C. Buford for 11 years. Not to mention, the Grizzlies own history of instability. I have to believe that as long as Wallace and Iavaroni show progress, Heisley will stick with them.

Will the incoming players mesh in Iavaroni's system? Will our current young players improve their individual play and team chemistry? Will they actually play defense? In all cases, we'll have to wait until November to even begin to get an idea.

As they say, it's always darkest before the dawn. But believe it or not, the Grizzlies are perfectly positioned to reload for the next campaign. And with luck, chemistry and the blessing of the health gods, this time next year, April will bring postseason hopes instead of offseason blues.

L3E