Post GameThoughts - Milwaukee

Chipc3's Perspective:
Well the post-Gasol era started the same way the Gasol era ended, with a team unable to figure out how to win a game that was in their grasp. The new look Grizzlies looked a lot like the old blowing a late lead by being outscored 12-2 down the stretch to lose by 5 pts to a Milwaukee team missing their top scorer and their hot shot rookie. Mike Miller looked good for three quarters including the fourth but this time disappeared in the 3rd when a halftime lead became a fourth quarter deficit. Rudy Gay couldn't take over the game because of his lack of ball handling skills and the team simply put up too many ugly shots down the stretch.

To make matters worse Pau Gasol scored 24 pts on 10-15 shooting and grabbed 12 boards in his Laker debut.

Darko Milicic looked decent at times in amassing his third straight double-double but his shot selection was highly suspect as was the play-calling that kept putting the ball in his hands. It seemed the plan was to make Darko an offensive threat and he is really is better focusing on defense and rebounding. The problem is that Memphis can't afford Darko to be an after thought offensively. The Grizzlies already attack in the half court set with 4 against 5 as Kyle Lowry is no threat at all. Throw in the fact that Juan Carlos Navarro is in a slump and the Grizz already have a hole at the 4 with no Gasol and it is easy to see why they have trouble scoring in crunch time.

The interior defense is still a problem so maybe that wasn't Pau's fault. They got killed on the boards so maybe that wasn't Pau's fault either. Basically the team looked exactly like they did with Pau only with one less weapon to score with. Still the trade is about the future not the present. Javaris Crittenton looked very promising if a bit raw in his 7 minutes and Kwame looked exactly like we were told he would look. Which means he looked like a player that will give us $9 million in cap space this summer.

The one bright spot was the weather had more to do with the poor attendance than the team.

From Zack

Quickly...

-- Deadly tornadoes in the area limited the crowd size. The upper deck was closed off and those fans moved down.
-- Kwame Brown got a standing ovation when he first entered the game.
-- The refs were absolutely abysmal.
-- A fan got kicked out because of it.
-- Of course, we found a way to lose at the end.
-- The Griz do not defend the pick-and-roll correctly. At all. Even a bit. It's pathetic.
-- Javaris played SG, while Navarro played PG when on the court together. Probably temporary.
-- Navarro is better suited to be a SG, this game showed his struggles bringing the ball down the court effectively against pressure.
-- Best play of the game was a thunderous alley-oop from Kyle to Rudy.
-- The Bucks were depleted. There couldn't have been a less interesting game scheduled tonight.
-- I had a lot of fun at the game, despite the loss.
-- Rudy Gay is awesome.
-- I'm encouraged about what I'm seeing from Darko with Pau gone.

Memphis vs Milwaukee - 2.5.08

Memphis seemed to still be suffering from shellshock against Utah from the news that Pau Gasol was traded to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, the draft rights to Marc Gasol and two #1 draft picks. The Milwaukee game should actually witness the start of the era after Gasol when Jason Collins, Javaris and Kwame actually suit up in a game for the Grizzlies. Not that anyone should expect much contribution from these three. The only player that adds anything to the immediate lineup will be Javaris as he should instantly become the backup to Kyle Lowry moving JCN back to his more natural SG position. Collins and Brown will both see action backing up Darko but it is doubtful that either will play significant minutes. That leaves the scoring burden on Miller and Gay who struggled against Utah in that role. Mike Miller especially will miss seeing open shots as team's doubled down on Gasol. This is a great opportunity for Hakim Warrick to step up and show he belongs in the future plans for the Grizzlies.

Milwaukee has struggled this year. Between fighting with the Chinese government about letting Yi Jianlian play for the Bucks, to dealing with life without Michael Redd to just trying to mature as a team with so many young players in the mix, it has been a learning experience for Milwaukee. While most of the attention directed at Milwaukee has to do with the drafting of Yi and his performance the development of Andrew Bogut has been the best story on the team this season. Charlie Villanueva on the other hand has taken a severe step backwards in his development and may be available in a trade soon. Bobby Simmons' return from two years of injuries offers more promise for the Bucks future.

Point Guards: Kyle Lowry vs Mo Williams
Many people expected Memphis to make a run at Mo Williams in free agency last summer but the drafting of Michael Conley turned the Grizzlies attention toward a big and eventually to Darko. Mo returned to Milwaukee and has played decently but hasn't been the playmaker many people expected this season. Part of that has to do with the lack of people to make plays of course. Kyle Lowry has continued to log heavy minutes since Conley's injury and has produced but his role on the team is in question now with another rookie PG on the roster. The disturbing aspects of Lowry's game have been his turnovers and poor shooting.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Royal Ivey
Royal Ivey has been filling in for Redd this season and definately hasn't got the shooting touch that Redd has. Shooting only 41% as a starter and only 28% from the arc, Ivey has taken a team's strength and made it a weakness. Navarro's shooting has been off lately as his minutes have increased and his responsibilities broadened. In the last 5 games Navarro has shot a tepid 35% from the field and 27% from the arc. Navarro should be playing the majority of minutes at SG now but one has to wonder how he will perform now that his best friend is gone. Not having to be the playmaker anymore should free up Navarro to concentrate solely on the 2 position which should help him snap out of his funk.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Bobby Simmons
Bobby Simmons is coming back after two frustrating seasons of injuries including missing the entire 2005-06 season after signing a big free agent contract to leave LA for Milwaukee. Before the injuries Bobby was finally living up to the potential he exhibited his last season in LA. Simmons has been thrust back into the starting lineup wiht the injury to Desmond Mason. Mike is the most experienced Grizz player with the team right now. He has played barely over 5 full seasons with the team. Mike has a high basketball IQ and a deadly eye but a weak stomach for taking big shots. This is a rare matchup where Mike won't be a step slower than his opponent however so his shooting in the first three quarters should be enough to win the personal battle.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Yi Jianlian
Yi is the 2nd rookie starting in this game. That is extremely rare in the NBA. Yi has been a lot better than his detractors expected but by no means has he been tearing up the league. Grizz fans may remember Rudy's introduction to Yi in the summer league with his posterizing dunk. Rudy is playing like the 2nd best player from last year's draft class behind Brandon Roy and he isn't far behind. Rudy has been given the keys to the team and is being asked to take over like Roy has in Portland after Zack Randolph was traded. How Rudy responds to the challenge will go a long way in determining if Memphis made a bad deal or not.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Andrew Bogut
Darko has put together back to back double-doubles in points and rebounds in the last two games for the 1t time in his career. Andrew Bogut has 21 double-doubles this season. Bogut was drafted #1 the year after Darko went #2 but Bogut is still a year older than Darko because of his time in college. While neither player has really lived up to their high draft positions Bogut at least has become a competitant NBA starter averaging 13.5 ppg and 9 rebounds. Darko's defense has been improving (7 blocks in the last two games) as has his shooting. Hopefully Darko is fully recovered from the sprained thumb that plagued him early in the season. Darko may be playing well but it is hard to forget the spanking Bogut put on the Grizzlies earlier this season.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Benches: Memphis vs Milwaukee
Are Michael Redd or Desmond Mason going to play in this game? Those questions will affect the game's outcome more than the benches. Milwaukee's bench is led by Charlie Bell and Charlie Villanueva right now. Has Charlie Villanueva woken up from his season long funk? Charlie V's up and down performances have been disappointing for the Bucks. Who knows what Memphis' bench will be like? Hakim Warrick is looked at to provide points but what impact with Jason Collins, Kwame Brown and Javaris Crittenton have? Personally I hope to see Crittenton have a good game as that will ease a lot of the pressure on the Grizzlies about the trade.
Advantage: Milwaukee

UPDATE: According to Graham Kendrick, Mike Conley practiced on Monday and should be available for the game against Milwaukee. This makes it official, the Grizzlies have more point guards with fewer than 50 games of playing experience than any team in NBA history!

Alternative Perspectives:
BrewHoop.com
Bucks Blog
MKE Bucks Draft

Pregame: Memphis at Milwaukee - 11.14.07

ChipC3 and Zack bring you pregame commentary for the 11.14.07 Memphis at Milwaukee game. Leave your predictions for the final score in the comments.

Memphis has to play another back to back series with the second game on the road when they travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. After a disappointing road trip the Grizzlies faced one of the powerhouses in their division in the Houston Rockets. The three days off hopefully allowed Gasol's back to recover and regain the form that we saw at the end of last season. Grumblings are already starting in Memphis to trade their best player so either Gasol needs to step up or the team could collapse around him. Rudy Gay has been impressive at times this season but his lack of passing and consistent rebounding has diminished that somewhat but most problematic has been his inability to remain on the court due to foul troubles. Iavaroni has repeatedly said he doesn't want the team to commit fouls but Darko and Rudy haven't gotten the message yet. Milwaukee has to be seen as a must win this week with games against the Hornets and at the Mavericks coming up on Friday and Saturday.

Milwaukee is looking to regain some composure after the blowout losses at Houston and at San Antonio. Milwaukee has lost all four road games this year but has beaten Toronto and Chicago at the Mecca, I mean the Bradley Center (Call me old fashioned but I miss the old Mecca). Led by sharpshooter Michael Redd (who has been unseasonably cold so far) and getting surprising production from rookie Yi Jianlian, the Bucks are a big team with talent at most positions but not a lot of experience winning games. The biggest weakness for the Bucks has been rebounding where they are led by Redd and Yi at 5.8 a game. Charlie Villanueva has been disappointing so far as has former #1 pick Andrew Bogut.

Trends

--Playing the percentages. One thing is certain about the Grizzlies this year, they want to get easy points. In the first 6 games, only once have the Grizzlies not had more points in the paint than their opponent. The Grizzlies have scored exactly 52 points in the paint in the last 3 games. Similarly, the Griz have shot more free throw attempts than their opponent in all but one game this year. The Grizzlies are averaging 33.5 free throw attempts per game compared to 22.3 for the opposition.
--Tired legs? This is the 5th time in the Grizzlies first 7 games of the season where either the Griz or their opponent was on the back end of a back-to-back (2 times for the Griz, 3 times for the opponent).
--Common opponents. The Griz and Bucks have had 2 common opponents so far this year, the Rockets and Spurs. The Grizzlies played both of those teams at home and played their best games of the year against the Southwest Division foes. Meanwhile, the Bucks played both on the road and got blown out in each.

Storylines

--Fratello is gone!!! The last time the Grizzlies played the Bucks, it was December 27th, 2006. This date is affectionately known to Griz fans as Mike Fratello's last game of his maddening reign in Memphis. Christmas felt like it came 3 days late for most Griz fans, as West gave Frat the ax after a horrible 112-96 loss to the Bucks. A big thank you goes out to the Bucks for that drumming and spurring a long awaiting firing that eventually paved the way for our new and exciting coaching staff this year.
--Bucks return home, expect a win. The Bucks only two victories this year have came in Milwaukee. After getting trounced by Houston and San Antonio on the road, the Bucks will view this game as a must win against a lower tier Grizzlies team who is coming off playing an emotionally charged game the night before.
--Lottery picks playing different roles. Micheal Conley, #4 overall draft pick in 2007, meets #6 overall Yi Jianlian. But their situations couldn't be any more different. Conley wanted to play in Memphis over the other lottery teams. Yi wanted nothing to do with Milwaukee. Conley is hardly seeing the court as he is locked in a heated battle for PG minutes. Yi is not only a starter, but it was rumored he was guaranteed a certain amount of minutes to entice him to sign his rookie contract.

Keys

--Fight through the screens. It is no secret that SG's have killed the Grizzlies this year (particularly T-Mac, Roy, Dunleavy, and Manu). Michael Redd is just as good as a scorer as those 4 guys are. I expect Mike Miller to start out guarding Redd, and as Chip noted, they should be familiar with each other after this past summer. The key to slowing down Redd will be to fight throw the screens the Bucks will use to free him up to shoot. Fighting through screens hasn't exactly been a strong point on defense by the Grizzlies this year, so this game should present a hefty challenge.
--Pound the ball inside. I already mentioned the points in the paint advantage the Grizzlies have had most games this year. Obviously having Pau and Darko available in the post is a big reason why. The Bucks will routinely have an undersized PF playing alongside of Bogut (either Yi or Charlie V), so the opportunity to continue force feeding the big Ivory Towers inside will be there tonight.
--Shorten the rotation. Although against the Rockets 11 players saw the court, our main five players all played between 32 and 36 minutes. No other Grizzlies player played more than 15 minutes. I like this distribution of minutes. If we can consistently have Lowry, Miller, Rudy, Pau and Darko each on the court ~35 minutes a game, I think it will improve execution on both ends of the court (less turnovers and better help side rotation!) and increase the chance to be competitive and get a win. Of course not getting into foul trouble is a prerequisite to having the main guys play most of the minutes.

Matchups

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Maurice Williams
Damon Stoudamire needs to keep the team under control and hit some open shots to hold onto his starting role. With the season seemingly already slipping away after a 1-4 start, Damon is seen as standing in the way of developing young point guards Michael Conley and Kyle Lowry. Maurice Williams signed a new contract this summer with the Bucks after looking to be a highly sought after free agent. The former Alabama player has been extremely efficient this season shooting 48% from the field, 33% from the arc and dishing out 5 assists a game. What's more impressive is that these numbers have been improving over the last 3 games meaning he is getting into shape. Damon will need to play better than we have seen so far just to make it close.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Michael Redd
If there are two players that should know each other on these teams it is Miller and Redd. It was expected that the final decision would be between these two players however both ended up making the team. Redd excelled in the competition while Miller struggled to get minutes and didn't shoot well. This season Redd is struggling with his shot but still scoring lot of points (21.7 ppg) is tied for 2nd in rebounds (5.8) and in assists at 3.8 apg. Miller is not scoring a lot of points (12.0 ppg) but doing so efficiently, leads the team in rebounds (9.4 rpg) and Mike is among the team lead in assists at 3.8 apg. Pretty close but is 9 more points a game better than 4 more rebounds? Heck it's a road game for the Grizzlies while the Bucks have been waiting at home for 4 days.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Small Forward: Rudy Gay vs Desmond Mason
Desmond Mason has returned to Milwaukee where he spent his most productive seasons. Time has not been favorable to Desmond however and the leaping ability isn't as amazing anymore and his lack of outside shooting is still bad but he doesn't have to take 3 pt shots. He does occasionally have to go the line and his 45.5% FT% is atrocious. Rudy is on fire right now and looks to be the first perimeter player in Memphis to average over 20 ppg. However he needs to use his size better to get to the boards (only 4.4 a game) and involve more people in the action (1.0 apg) but he is averaging a steal and a block a game. If he could just lower the fouls the sky is the limit for Rudy.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Yi Jianlian
I think it is safe to say that more international fans will be interested in this match up than domestic fans. Spain's greatest player against the next great player from China is a marquee match up around the world but it is unlikely even people in Memphis or Milwaukee will think of this match up first. Gasol has struggled getting out of the blocks this season but is still averaging 16.2 ppg and 6.2 rpg. He is shooting over 50% from the field and 50% from the arc (1 of 2 is 50%) and 89.7% from the line. Yi is averaging 11.8 ppg and 5.8 rpg while shooting 47% from the field. Great numbers for a rookie but Gasol needs to win this match up for Memphis to have a chance.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Mililcic vs Andrew Bogut
Another non-American match up as Australia takes on Serbia in the paint. Bogut hasn't actually been a bust after being drafted #1 by Milwaukee but he hasn't been a star either. This season he averages 8.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg but is shooting only 40.4% from the field. That is terrible for a big man. Darko had been a bust since being drafted #2 by Detroit but has is out to prove that he is more than that. Darko is averaging 9.6 ppg, 8 rpg and getting 1.6 bpg. He is shooting 46.3% from the field which isn't exactly great but a lot better than 40.4%.
Advantage: Memphis

Benches: Milwaukee basically runs an 8 man rotation and has Charlie Villanueva, Charlie Bell and Bobby Simmons coming off the bench. All three are experienced NBA players who have produced in clutch situations in the past. Dan Gadzurich gets token minutes but hasn't been ineffective when on the court. Memphis' bench hasn't produced at all yet outside of Kyle Lowry. Michael Conley is showing signs of being the player Memphis fans wanted when he was drafted this summer but is still very raw. Casey Jacobsen and Juan Carlos Navarro have not provided the scoring off the bench that was anticipated and the big men of Stro Swift and Hakim Warrick have all but disappeared.
Advantage: Milwaukee

Coaches: Marc Iavaroni vs Larry Krystsoviak
I think I saw a game where both of these guys played at the Mecca in Milwaukee? Actually it was the Bradley Center but I still miss the Mecca. Yes I am that old. Anyway, Krystoviak previously coached the Grizzlies, the Montana Grizzlies that is, before returning to the NBA as an assistant coach to Terry Shots who he replaced near the end of last season. Neither coach has much experience as a head coach but plenty of experience in the NBA. How that will translate to on-court success has yet to be seen. Personally I prefer Iavaroni's experience in the NBA as a head coach under Pat Riley, Mike D'Antoni and working with Pete Newell over Krystoviak's experience at the University of Montana. I don't say this often but...
Advantage: Memphis

Other Game Previews

-- Check out Brew Hoop for a Buck's perspective.

-- The Sports Network

-- Beyond the Arc (Chris Herrington)

-- Grizzlies.com preview.