Grizzlies vs Detroit - 12.21.07

Memphis heads to Detroit with the glow of a last second victory in their eyes and the taste of their first win in a game decided by three points or less all season. I imagine that visions of sugarplums are dancing in their heads as well. They better wake up and get serious however because Detroit is downright scary (take it any way you want). Michael Conley should be cleared to practice with the team very soon (he said he was ready to go last night and was just waiting on the Doctors to inspect him to get cleared to play) but I don't expect for him to see the court anytime soon. Rudy Gay has established himself as a serious candidate for Most Improved Player in the league with that buzzer beating three point shot over Tim Duncan. The Grizzlies have won 2 of 3 games after a 6 game losing streak.

Detroit heads home with the glow of a last second victory in their eyes and the taste of the first visiting team victory in Boston all season. I imagine that visions of pick and rolls and hard fouls are dancing in their heads. They are the Pistons after all, home of the Bad Boys and the hardest working team in the NBA. Sugarplums just don't enter their minds even in dreams. Chauncey Billups was the man again as he faked Tony Allen into biting on a desperation three point shot, drew the foul and calmly sank the free throws to win the game. The Pistons are 8-2 in their last 10 games and a top the Central Division standings.

Zack's Corner - Q/A Time

Q: The Griz and Pistons just played 10 days ago. What has happened since then?
A: The Griz have went 2-2. They played probably their worst game of the season against the Clippers, but followed that up with their best 2 wins of the season against the Magic and Spurs. The Pistons have went 3-1, including their signature win of the season, beating the Celtics in Boston.

Q: Should Griz fans hope for a high or low scoring game?
A: There might not be a logical answer to this question. The Pistons are 11-0 when scoring over 100 points. The Grizzlies are 1-9 when scoring less than 100 points. I guess I'll go with a high scoring game.

Q: What went wrong in the last game?
A: Everything. Started out slow (37-22 in the 1st quarter). The Pistons backcourt totally dominated the Grizzlies backcourt. The Grizzlies couldn't force many turnovers on defense (leading to the Pistons having a 19-4 fastbreak point advantage) and wasn't getting many assisted FG's on offense.

Q: What should be the most important point of emphasis tonight?
A: The Grizzlies backcourt holding their own against Billups and Hamilton. Damon, Kyle, Navarro and Miller are the key players tonight.

Matchups

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Chauncey Billups
Damon has been playing some of the best basketball of his Memphis career. There is a not so subtle statistic to look for with Damon. He averages around 10 ppg in Grizzlies wins but only 6 ppg in losses. Chauncey Billups is having another solid season. He is 2nd on the Pistons in scoring, first in assists and steals but not hitting his shots at the same clip he has in the past. The last time these two met Billups had his way with Damon. If that happens again it will be a long night for the Grizzlies.
Advantage: Detroit

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Richard Hamilton
Juan Carlos Navarro can shoot. No big news there as the former MVP of the Spanish League has always been known as a scorer. Juan Carlos can play defense. Now that is something people weren't so sure about. After struggling early NAvarro has begun to pick up how to slow players down. Slowing down Hamilton is never easy as the man simply has an incredible amount of energy. Constantly in motion 'Rip' has been known to wear out opponents in the 1st half with the constant need to fight thru picks which Detroit sets liberally for their leading scorer. Mike Miller is more of a set shooter and his defense has been questioned. To keep up with Hamilton Navarro may have to sacrifice his offense. Size is also a problem as the 6-3 Navarro surrenders four inches to Hamilton.
Advantage: Detroit

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Tayshaun Prince
Tayshaun Prince's lanky body allows him to play surprisingly good defense without being outmatched physically. This will be a difficult match for Mike as Prince is sneaky good on offense as well. Prince is 3rd on the Pistons in scoring and hits 49.6% of his FG attempts. Mike has woken up is offense after a slow start of the season and is starting to pour in baskets in bunches but he is still a defensive weak point. Unlike Hamilton, Prince isn't a constant mover without the ball so possibly this will allow Miller to focus more on offense where he is needed.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Rasheed Wallace
Rasheed Wallace is one of the most difficult big men to play in the NBA. He leads the Pistons in rebounding at only 7.3 a game but adds 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks a game while hitting 39% of his 3 pt attempts. Rudy Gay however can match Wallace in height, perimeter agility, rebounding and defense while having a far better overall offensive game. Rudy will have to be aggressive however against a pretty good defender who will have the home court and experience advantage. A classic match up that should be worth the price of admission. While I doubt it will make the difference in the game, it should be fun to watch anyway.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Antonio McDyes
Darko's return gives Memphis an extremely physical interior presence that the team desperately needs. Darko is returning to the scene of the crime in this game. Detroit is where he sat and watched as the Pistons played. Hopefully that will bring some extra incentive for the big Serbian. Antonio McDyes has been sick offensively this year hitting 56.8% of his FG attempts and he doesn't just try to dunk the ball. That percentage is made with 8-10 foot jump shots contested by some pretty big men. If Darko can avoid foul trouble he may just have enough emotion to overcome his numerous bumps and bruises.
Advantage: Detroit

Benches: Memphis vs Detroit
Detroit runs an 8 man rotation for the most part. The big three off the bench are Jason Maxiel, Jarvis Hayes and Ronald 'Flip' Murray. All three of these players average about 8 ppg. The new entry off the bench is Aaron Afflalo. The UCLA rookie has been earning time of late which allows Rip Hamilton a few minutes break each half. The rest of the Detroit bench plays less than 10 mpg and aren't expected to contribute unless the game is over. Memphis is settling into an 8 man rotation while Gasol is out raising questions as to what will happen when he returns. The newest Grizz, Jerome Richardson, should be in uniform for this game but it is doubtful he will see action. That leaves Kyle Lowry, Hakim Warrick and Stromile Swift as the main contributors off the bench. Jacobsen will see some action simply because Miller and Rudy can't play 48 minutes but not otherwise. There is a possiblity Pau Gasol will be active for this game and not wait until after Christmas as was originally reported in the paper.
Advantage: Detroit

Other Pre-game Sites/Relevant Commentary:
Need4Sheed.com
Pistons Nation Blog
Motoring
Detroit Bad Boys
Detroit News - Chris McCosky
Wages of Wins "Are the Pistons This Good"
Grizzlies.com

Postgame Thoughts: Memphis vs. Detroit 12.11.07

Spartacus Says:

Well, there really weren't a whole lot of positives to take from this game, as the Grizzlies were playing catch-up from the opening tip it seemed.

Rudy Gay managed to salvage what was shaping up to be a very poor showing by hitting 5 of his last 6 shots after starting 3/11 from the floor. He played with great energy on both ends of the court, although he might want to read a scouting report on Tayshaun Prince, who is, in fact, left-handed. It was good to see him continue to be aggressive even when things weren't really coming easily to him.

Kyle Lowry got plenty of minutes to showcase his ability to be the primary point guard, but didn't display that he was ready for that task. Too often, he was out of control with the ball in his hands and he did little to dissuade Chauncey Billups from doing whatever he wanted, as the All-Star PG went off for a season high with 28 points and 14 assists. Kyle might become the complementary player to Michael Conley that everyone hopes, but he is still a long way off from that goal.

Pau Gasol had a good all-around game with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists, but as per his M.O. never looked to assert himself with the ball in his hands. If you read my earlier post, none of this is really news to you.

Hakim Warrick had a second strong outing, posting 17 points and 6 rebounds. For the first time this season that I can recall, Hak looked like a player who belonged on this Memphis team and could fit in for the future. If Stro continues to be bitten by the illness/injury bug or underperform like he did tonight, the Hak could find himself in Memphis for the long-term as a valuable role player off the bench.

Like I said above, there was nothing substantial to be taken from this game, as the Pistons were able to coast for long periods after building a 20+ point lead in the first half, but at least the Grizzlies didn't fold up the tents and go home. It's a minor amount of solace to take, but when you're on a 5 game losing streak, you take what you can get.

ChipC3 Says:

If there is nothing else to take out of this game it was that the Grizzlies picked up their first technical foul of the season for something other than illegal defense. Iavaroni picked up the T with less than a minute to go in the game. That ties Memphis with Utah for the fewest in the league. Nice to see that someone on the team finally had enough with the lopsided referee calls. Getting one a little earlier may have awakened the refs to the idea that Memphis deserves a fair shake.

Memphis looked tired again. No reason for it since they haven't played since Saturday night but the team was flat for most of the first quarter.

Hakim Warrick scored well and showed some life but his defense was worse than Gasol's tonight as well. Stro seemed to get banged on his knee opening up playing time for Hakim. Something tells me that we will be seeing more of Hak off the bench even with the bad defense.

Gasol led the team in assists, was second in rebounds and scoring. Not a bad game but allowing Maxiel to go 7-8 from the field was pretty pathetic. Zero blocks from Gasol pretty much tells you all you need to know. Kyle Lowry had more blocks than Darko and Pau combined and he only had 1. Speaking of Darko he started on fire but the lack of playing time due to injury really showed later in the game as he all but disappeared. He finished with 12 pts but only 3 boards in 25 minutes.

The Grizzlies backcourt was toasted. Billups set a season high in points, Rip Hamilton was 11-16 for the game. Defense was pretty poor all around. Great effort off the bench from Navarro, Lowry and Hak made the game look closer than it was. Everytime the Grizzlies made a run Detroit had an answer.

Three more days off will hopefully get the Grizz back in shape and focused on playing defense.

Memphis vs Detroit - 12.11.07

Thanks to Natalie Sitto from Need4Sheed for her help with the Detroit pre-game comments.

Memphis finished a week on a severe down note. Entering last week the team had to look at a schedule that included a home game against Portland, a road match against Atlanta and two divisional games as a chance to make a statement. If that was a statement week then the statement is rather discouraging as the team went 0-4 with two last second losses and two poor efforts. Memphis must get over this sickness, both literally and emotionally, as they prepare for one of the most experienced teams in the league. Gasol had been playing well prior to the Atlanta debacle. Milicic is back from his sprained wrist and ankle but still is rusty on offense. Rudy Gay has assumed the role of primary scorer and seems able to handle it despite his young age. The illness that felled Damon and Stro needs to be contained as both players are needed for victory.

Detroit comes in to tonight's game against Memphis with a solid foundation. The Pistons have been on a roll dominating teams since they beat the Cavs handily seven games ago, with the exception of a slight hiccup against the Bulls. With the offensive flow the best it's been all season and the new found attention to defense, watch out for The Pistons on both ends of the floor. When Detroit's starting five is on the floor its pick your poison, any one of them can be the star of the game on any given night. And with Jason Maxiell reeking havoc off the bench, along with the solid play of Jarvis Hayes, Flip Murray and Arron Afflalo this whole Pistons team can cause trouble. Detroit never counts any team out but, Memphis has got to have everything working to beat the red hot Pistons right now.

Zack's Corner

Trouble Ahead - The Detroit Pistons
-- Overall Record: 14-6 (5th best in NBA and 2nd best team we've faced to date)
-- In the last week, beat both the Hawks and Hornets on the road.
-- 8-2 in their last 10 games.
-- +8.3 average point differential per game (3rd in NBA)
-- 91.9 points per game allowed (2nd best in NBA)
-- 47.07 FG% (6th in NBA)
-- 43.68% opponent FG% (4th best in NBA)
-- 33% opponent 3-point% (6th best in NBA)
-- 23.9 assists per game (3rd best in NBA)
-- Allows 20 assists per game (5th best in NBA)
-- Only 11.6 measly turnovers per game (2nd best in NBA)

Trouble Behind - The Memphis Grizzlies
-- Overall Record: 6-14 (only 1 game better than last year through 20 games)
-- In the last week, lost to both the Hawks and Hornets on the road.
-- Lost 4 straight and 3-7 in last 10.
-- Allow 105.2 points per game (3rd worst in NBA)
-- 47.15 opponent FG% (2nd worst in NBA)
-- Allow 23.5 assists per game (4th worst in NBA)
-- Force only 12.9 turnovers per game (3rd worst in NBA)

And You Know That Notion Just Crossed My Mind
I can't imagine that for tonight's game against the Pistons, the Griz will suddenly morph into a defensive juggernaut. Of course, Darko's presence alone makes our interior defense better than it was without him. But everything else on defense is not going to be miraculously improved for this game. Our perimeter players - here's looking at you Kyle, Rudy and JC - are going to help too much and leave their man open for uncontested shots when teams make the 'extra' pass (Tayshaun will be sure to get extra reps warming up from the corner). The guards will also passively move around/through/over screens and come up a step late allowing an easy mid-range jump shot. Everybody is going to get out worked on the glass and give up too many second chance points. We will get very few steals (what ever happened to tracking and encouraging deflections?). We will not be able to get stops in the clutch. And someone is likely to go for a near-career high in points. The poor things we have done all season on defense will most likely occur again tonight. Sorry.

What can change to increase the chances of winning? How well we shoot the rock. Unfortunately, Detroit is good at forcing teams into shooting lower percentage shots than they would like to take. And that is rooted in having great transition defense, along with a long, tall team that understands body positions and angles. But who cares. It doesn't matter. Our players (with only a few exceptions) are best known for being good shooters. So, it only makes sense that when our shooters shoot good, we win. When our shooters shot bad, we lose. Really. It is almost that simple. Our chances of winning are most closely correlated to our shooting percentage. So, if the Griz want to win tonight, a repeat 1 for 15 performance from beyond the arc probably won't cut it. Our shooters gotta make shots. They aren't getting paid to play good defense, they're getting paid to be good shooters.

Matchups by Chip

Point Guards: Damon Stoudamire vs Chauncey Billups
Damon Stoudamire was slowed by the stomach bug the past week. That was unfortunate as Damon was playing some of the best basketball of his Memphis career prior to the illness. Chauncey Billups is having another solid season. He is 2nd on the Pistons in scoring, first in assists and steals but not hitting his shots at the same clip he has in the past. This match up was a classic two seasons ago when the Grizzlies fought a double OT game in which Damon made two huge 3 pt shots to force first OT and then the 2nd OT only to have Billups win the game with a 15 ft jump shot at the buzzer to win the game.
Advantage: Detroit

Shooting Guards: Mike Miller vs Richard Hamilton
Richard Hamilton has picked up his game after a relatively slow start to the season to be on fire of late. He has averaged just short of 20 ppg on 51.4% FG shooting and a ridiculous 62.5% from the arc. Slowing down Hamilton is never easy as the man simply has an incredible amount of energy. Constantly in motion 'Rip' has been known to wear out opponents in the 1st half with the constant need to fight thru picks which Detroit sets liberally for their leading scorer. Mike Miller is more of a set shooter and his defense has been questioned. To keep up with Hamilton Miller may have to sacrifice his offense.
Advantage: Detroit

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Tayshaun Prince
Rudy Gay has been the brightest star for the revamped Grizzlies this season. Rudy has become the offensive first option on the team. Rudy is averaging over 23 ppg in December and has scored a minimum of 17 pts in each of the last 5 games after a weak East Coast road trip to New Jersey and Toronto. However both of those teams have active defenders like Detroit. Tayshaun Prince's lanky body allows him to play surprisingly good defense without being outmatched physically. This will be a difficult match for Rudy as Prince is sneaky good on offense as well. Prince is 3rd on the Pistons in scoring and hits 49.6% of his FG attempts. Rudy being at home
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forwards: Pau Gasol vs Rasheed Wallace
Rasheed Wallace is one of the most difficult big men to play in the NBA. He leads the Pistons in rebounding at only 7.3 a game but adds 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks a game while hitting 39% of his 3 pt attempts. Pau Gasol has gracefully passed the torch of lead scorer to Rudy Gay this season while still maintaining his double figure scoring streak. While starting slow Gasol is still averaging 17.3 ppg and 7.7 rebounds. His shooting percentage is down a bit but his FT percentage is way up and Gasol has gotten more physical of late.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Antonio McDyes
Darko's return gives Memphis an extremely physical interior presence that the team desperately needs. Darko gets his first shot at the team who drafted him yet refused to play him and hopefully that will bring some extra incentive for the big Serbian. Antonio McDyes has been sick offensively this year hitting 56.8% of his FG attempts and he doesn't just try to dunk the ball. That percentage is made with 8-10 foot jump shots contested by some pretty big men. Darko performed very well with Orlando against Detroit in last season's playoffs but Darko's injuries plus the lack of Dwight Howard drawing attention may make it more difficult for Darko this time.
Advantage: Detroit

Benches: Memphis vs Detroit
Detroit runs an 8 man rotation for the most part. The big three off the bench are Jason Maxiel, Jarvis Hayes and Ronald 'Flip' Murray. All three of these players average about 8 ppg. The rest of the Detroit bench plays less than 10 mpg and aren't expected to contribute unless the game is over. Memphis has been running a very short bench of late with Stromile and Damon's illness and Conley's injury. Kyle Lowry has been playing like a rookie PG giving excellent effort but erratic ball control. He has been a huge spark off the bench and it appears that he may be shaking off the shooting slump he has been in. Hakim Warrick is a great scorer but weak defender which makes him the 4th big man in a 3 man rotation but if Stro can't go expect Warrick to get some burn. Navarro is struggling to get his shot off of late and that won't get easier against Detroit.
Advantage: Detroit

Update: Sheed unlikely to start due to illness, flu-like symptoms (Detroit News - Chris McCosky)

Other Pre-game Sites/Relevant Commentary:
Need4Sheed.com
Pistons Nation Blog
Motoring
Detroit Bad Boys
Detroit News - Chris McCosky
Wages of Wins "Are the Pistons This Good"
Grizzlies.com
Beyond the Arc (Chris Herrington)

Got a Prediction? Leave it in the Comments.