Moving Forward with the Forwards

(Photo by Getty Images)

Matt over at Hardwood Paroxysm emailed me last week to ask me a simple question that has been bandied about on the message boards for quite some time. That question was this: Why not take a stab at Josh Smith? He didn't use my response in his post about the matter, which is great for me, because now I can use it here.

The Grizzlies should probably at least make a cursory call in to his agent for two reasons:

1) To drive up the price that the Hawks eventually sign him for. Nothing better than making other teams overpay for their own free agents.
2) To make the Grizzlies fanbase believe that they might have intended to spend some of their cap space this offseason, even though they have said repeatedly that they were targeting the 2009 offseason to spend it.

Now, as far as them making a legitimate play for him -- this is problematic. Since he's a restricted free agent, the Grizzlies would have had to offer him more than what the Hawks were willing to match in order to actually acquire him. Because they signed Marc Gasol already, the Grizzlies only have about $10 million in cap space for the first year of that contract, which Atlanta would almost surely match.

I don't believe that Josh Smith (or any of this year's young free agents) are max-level players, but that's the kind of contract offer it would probably take to pry any of them away from their current teams. While I'm not convinced that the trio of Antoine Walker, Hakim Warrick and Darrell Arthur will be enough to cover the Grizzlies at the PF position this year, I don't see any reason why they should overpay for Smith either, given that this team is still 2 years away from making any real noise no matter who they choose to go out and sign this offseason.

Besides, there is another possibility that most people haven't discussed. What if Smith (and Igoudala, Okafor, Deng, et al.) decide to just sign the qualifying offer and test the market next summer as unrestricted free agents? Then the market truly sets their real value, rather than having to haggle with an agent, only to see their current team match that offer, leaving you with nothing to show after putting your cap space on hold for a week. This is why the Grizzlies didn't sign Andres Nocioni or Anderson Varejao to offer sheets last year, despite serious interest in them, and instead went after Darko Milicic for a reasonable sum.

Restricted free agency is almost always a fool's gambit. You either overpay, get suckered into a bad deal via trade (Kenyon Martin to the Nuggets, Joe Johnson to the Hawks) or simply waste your time (Corey Maggette retained by Clippers after signing offer sheet with Jazz). The NBA has designed it to favor the "home team" and they certainly succeeded in that regard.

On top of that, even though the Grizzlies would be more exciting and talented if they were able to sign Smith, would they be able to compete with the Lakers, Hornets and Trail Blazers over the next few years with that core group?

Now, as I stated in the email entry above, I'm not sure that I buy into the idea of entering the season with a trio of Warrick, Walker and Arthur, but I know that I don't want Josh Smith as our starting PF for the next 4-5 seasons. I'm a big fan of Smith's style of play...as a SF. That's his natural position, after all. Last time I checked, we already had a decent small forward by the name of Rudy Gay. He needs a backup, but I don't think that's what the fans have in mind when they suggest signing Smith.

I know that a lot of Grizzlies fans (all 11 of us) get a little upset when they consider the ramifications of letting everyone know that we have no intention of making a major free agent signing this offseason, despite the fact that we are the only team with any significant cap space. It sends out a message that seems to plainly say, "we're not going to try to compete this season". I mean, that's what all the media pundits are reporting across the board anyways. I've seen that phrase, or some version of it, on no less than 5 different major media websites in the past week. But just because the Grizzlies aren't throwing cash around simply because they have it, doesn't mean that they aren't being competitive. I'm not saying that I'm on board with what the Three Year Plan represents initially, but given that this is the stated direction of the front office, we might as well accept that and look at moves that fit in with that direction.

Here is my suggestion -- and one that I believe we will be able to see in action over the next two seasons. Why don't we see what we have first? As I noted yesterday, we have two young players at 4 of the 5 positions, with SF being the only one that is without competition for the next season. Conley vs. Lowry, Mayo vs. Crittenton, Warrick vs. Arthur and Gasol vs. Milicic. What if Darrell Arthur -- a consensus Top 15 pick on nearly every reputable mock draft in existence -- turns out to be worthy of that designation, rather than displaying the talent level of where he was actually selected near the end of the 1st round? In other words, what if Arthur proves to be talented enough to be the starting PF as early as next season? Wouldn't that negate the need to go out and sign a player like Josh Smith this offseason? That should be a very realistic possibility, given that he was ranked #14 overall on the Grizzlies draft board and the #4 PF by DraftExpress.


Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

In this piece on SI.com, Chris Mannix makes it clear that the Grizzlies front office has very high hopes for Arthur and loves the fact that he has come in with a tremendous chip on his shoulder due to the way that his draft stock plummeted needlessly, taking him from the back end of the lottery to the very end of the 1st round. After all, If D.A. can come in and use that motivation as a positive force (like Paul Pierce did regarding his draft position), then the rest of the league probably won't be laughing at the Memphis Grizzlies much longer. Check back tomorrow for what that future might look like.

Summer League Review - The Team

Well now that the Rookie league team has completed play I suppose we can look back and try to discern what we learned about our players and the team in general.

It is hard to be too critical of rookie play since the team had two a days on Tuesday and Wednesday, flew to Las Vegas on Thursday and then played four straight games and 5 games in 6 days. Fatigue had to be an issue for everyone on the team. However the few bright spots the team did exhibit were quite bright. Defensively the team held their first opponent to a mere 35.9% shooting for the game. Their second opponent didn't fair much better only hitting 40% of their attempts. The impact of Kevin O'Neill and the defensive focus was readily apparent. The Grizzlies shot respectable as a team those first two games as well.

Then fatigue set in and the defense sagged while the shots stopped falling. It is ridiculous to assume this shouldn't have happened also. Yes these are professional athletes but when you are facing teams who haven't played as many games as you have in such a short period of time fatigue is the enemy you can't defend against. Overall I wasn't displeased with the team's performance.

The team looked about as good as you would expect under the circumstances they were thrown into. The better players on the team didn't play every game including Mike Conley missing the last two games. It seemed the team had found out everything they wanted to know about the veterans on the team and the last games were more about preparing the drafted rookies for the rigors of the NBA and trying to find out if anyone else on the roster was worth a second look.

There is no truth to the rumor, as far as we can find out, that Heisley requested that the team play their 5 games in 6 days so that he wouldn't have to pay for extra days in the hotel.

Do the Grizzlies Have 'Big' Problems

It wasn't so long ago that the over-loaded front line drew as much criticism from fans as the current over-loaded point guard position does now. Remember when Memphis had Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, Bo Outlaw, Lorenzen Wright, Shane Battier, James Posey and Theron Smith all on the roster? Bonzi and Miller were really forwards who were forced into guard roles by the shear number of front line players.

Now Memphis has a dirth of frontline players and those they have are not experienced. Rudy Gay is entering his 3rd season and started a grand total of 124 games in his career. Hakim is beginning his 4th season and started a grand total of 75 games. Darko is the most experienced returning player and in his 5 years in the league he has started a grand total of 83 games in his career. Sure Antoine Walker has experience but he'll be 32 this coming season and hasn't player well since winning his ring in Miami three seasons ago. Does anyone feel confident relying on the 'shimmy shaker' to help educate our young players in how to be professionals?

Then we come to the primary backups at PF and C. Two rookies. One, Darrell Arthur, fell in the draft to 27th because of questionable health and heart. No there is nothing physically wrong with Darrell's heart. It just seems he doesn't bring it to the game every night. The other, Marc Gasol, was a fat kid who liked to take 3 pt shots when he left Memphis to return to Spain. This past season he was in the top 5 of the Spanish league in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Only one other player in the Spanish leagues accomplished this feat...Pops Mensah Bonsu.

WHO? Pops was on the GW team that shocked the world in the NCAA tournament a few years ago. Nice effort guy and he has a high basketball IQ but hardly someone I would say is going to be an impact player in the NBA. Doesn't that seem to trivialize Gasol's accomplishment a bit?

So the Grizzlies have a combined 283 games started total among all of their front line players not named Walker. That is a little bit more than three seasons of games (246). Antoine does have 707 career starts but only 16 in the last 2 years.

So do the Grizzlie have a big man problem? Perhaps they do. If Arthur and Gasol don't perform, if Darko doesn't improve, if Walker comes in out of shape and with a negative attitude, if Rudy doesn't continue rounding out a complete game to go with his fantastic offensive one and Warrick continues being a black hole on both sides of the court (can't defend anyone and won't pass the ball) then Memphis could be in big trouble.

Game Recap: Memphis v Hornets

The Grizzlies rookie team made an impressive debut in the summer league. OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Darrell Arthur and surprising PJ Tucker all scored in double figures and the team was never seriously challenged but the Hornets.

You can geta nice recap of the game over at the Commercial Appeal, read the active game thread on the Memphis Grizzlies Message board and get Chris Herrington's comments over at Beyond the Arc.

The game wasn't easy to watch on the webcast at NBA.com. Poor transfer quality and no announcing with a static view and no replays made it better than nothing but hardly enjoyable.

I would like to throw out a big thanks to the Commercial Appeal for sending Beat Writer Ron Tillery to the event. In the past the CA decided to save some money and not send a reporter to the event or only send one for a short period of time. This left Grizz fans with only an AP writers recap of the games. Thanks to the sports editor for approving the expense instead of saving a few dollars and denying the local fans a first hand account.

Grizz Draft Aftermath

Well, I must admit that this was the best draft night in Grizzlies history. Not just because we got my favorite player in the draft, O. J. Mayo, but because for once the GM of the Grizzlies was active and aggressive. My continued faith in GM Chris Wallace even in the face of the unwarranted criticism of the Gasol trade has been rewarded in spades baby. We freaking got a player with some national name recognition. There isn't a basketball fan in the country unaware of Ovinton J'Anthony Mayo. Heck, the Grizzlies fans watching the draft at the 730 ESPN Draft party at Jason's Deli at Poplar and Highland were more than satisfied with Kevin Love and Donte Green. Clarity to the late night wheeling and dealing was brought by the Memphis Flyer's Chris Herrington all night. If you don't know by now, I am extremely happy with adding O.J. Mayo and Darrell Athur to our young roster.

O. J. Mayo

At the start of this season, I had Mayo at the top of my draft board. In January he was still at the top. Unfortunately, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley passed him by with their stellar play down the stretch of the college season. I watched every game he played on television and rode the roller coaster of him adjusting to his new role on offense (off the ball) and his teammates. The one thing you noticed is that he took pride in defending the opponents best perimeter offensive player each and every night. I can not stress to Memphis fans how much Mayo's attitude is going to change the culture of that roster. All that lolly gagging crap is over. Between Conley (if he is not traded) and Mayo, there will be no more BSing around on the court. Effort will not be a question this season. Now he is not the next Kobe or LeBron athletically but he is right there with them mentally. He is the ultimate alpha dog. Mayo has always been elite on every level and against all competition, including NBA players. It is not a coincidence that he gets glowing endorsements from Kobe, Wade, LeBron and even Jalen Rose.

Darrell Arthur

I had the chance to watch Arthur workout in Memphis and he was fairly impressive. At the time, I did not think that there was any way the Grizz would be able to select him. During that workout he was just to physical for Golden State Warrior draftee Anthony Randolph. He is not big but I think he will be a bruiser in the NBA. When he comes to play it is spectacular. He is one of the few players that Al Horford had difficulties with in college last season. He has hook shots with either hands, a good face up jumper and he finishes with power. He should be effective in the pick and roll. He also will be able to run the floor with our new perimeter trio. He is not the most instinctive rebounder and he is very foul prone. However, at his draft position he is an absolute steal. I think his long term future is as the first big off the bench on a contending team but the Grizzlies front court is nowhere at that level right now. Look for him to play early and often. He has had problems with consistent production in college, hopefully his draft day drop will inspire him to attack his NBA career with a sense of urgency.

All in all it was a good night, especially for the Grizz fans like me who really want and expect GM Chris Wallace to do great things in Memphis.

Next up...I think the summer leaguers will be reporting on July 7 for orientation and preparation for the Vegas Summer League. At this time, your first chance to see Mayo and Arthur (and hopefully Jamont Gordon) in a Grizz uniform will be on NBA TV.

Reflecting on 4 hours of sleep

I was in the media room last night and when the Love pick was announced most of the media types were sort of ho-hum about it. A lot like the city of Memphis in that regard. Another safe pick and a solid player but nothing to get excited about.

Donte Greene's pick was interesting mostly because the Grizzlies didn't take home town boy CDR. Not a lot of people of the media knew much about Donte Greene and no one thought it was really a great pick. Why didn't they draft the University of Memphis star? Don't the Grizzlies want any fans in the stands? Maybe he's a better player but he won't bring the fans to the game.

I was on the other side of the coin. I thought Love wasn't just the smart pick but the right pick. The kid oozes leadership and class, he was going to be the dirty work player Memphis had never had and I was very excited about his prospect of success in Memphis. Maybe not All-Star success but on-court success for the team. Donte Greene was a brilliant pick in that they filled a need at back up SF with a talented young player that could grow behind Rudy and be used in a fast lineup with Rudy at times.

We waited for the Grizzlies too come out and face the music. And we waited. And we waited. I left after 10:00 pm because I work at a real job and nothing had been announced but their was a quiet buzz going around. Was something up? Why hadn't the Grizzlies come out to discuss the Greene pick? Are they working on something? Are they going to waste another 2nd rd pick to get a player to excite the locals? No one knew what was up but the general feeling was that something was happening. Of course the general feeling was it would be insignificant and there was some grumbling about deadlines and all.

Obviously I should have stayed.

About 10 minutes after getting home I heard that Greene was probably gone and that Darrell Arthur looked to be coming to Memphis. Then the damn broke with Ford's release of the Mayo trade. Suddenly I was wide awake again. Why didn't I stay at the Forum.

So what does this mean for the Grizzlies?

I think the Mayo trade shows Memphis is serious about rebuilding this franchise in a different manner than previous teams had been built but they paid a high cost for that reorganization. Memphis traded away the best rebounder the team has ever had and Arthur, while a solid all-around player, won't be able to do the things off the glass that Mayo can. Mike Miller was never going to be more than he is, which isn't bad but certainly not something that will shake up the fans.

I also hopes this puts to bed the idea that Heisley is only about cutting costs. Buying out Antoine Walker is not cheap. Jaric and Buckner add another year of his contracts that wouldn't exist with Collins, Cardinal and Miller.

It is expensive. It is dangerous. It was the right thing to do for a town that had forgotten the Grizzlies existed.

Draft Workout (6/16/08): Anthony Randolph, Darrell Arthur, Courtney Lee

The Grizzlies staff returned from California with another scheduled workout today. This was my first time attending a workout, so my perspective comes from a first time up close observation. Today's workout included Anthony Randolph of LSU, Darrell Arthur of national champion Kansas, Courtney Lee from Western Kentucky, Will Daniels of Rhode Island, Shan Foster of Vanderbilt and Jeremy Crouch of Bradley.

Here are my initial impressions:

Anthony Randolph, LSU
If you read any of my post on the Grizzlies board, then you know that I like Randolph as a player. The first thing you notice is that he does need to add some pounds to have any chance of playing on the inside in the NBA. However, it looks like he will be able to naturally add weight over time. Randolph's explosive athleticism showed through out the workout as he routinely finished off drills with dunks. He did show some of his versatility with his ball handling and he made some great passes in traffic. The one thing that stuck out through all of the shooting drills is that his jump shot is not as far off as I expected. He has decent form for a lefty but just needs to work on a consistent follow through on his shots. Now it wasn't all positive with Randolph. He was a little passive for my liking. He always seemed to be in cruise control even in live drills. He did not fight for rebounding position, attack strong off the bounce, or move with a purpose without the ball in his hand. He just seemed a little lackadaisical. You have to remember that Randolph is almost a full year younger than most in this class and the team that drafts him will be taking a leap of faith of sorts that he will work to maximize his enormous potential.

Darrell Arthur, Kansas
Arthur was my dark horse from last year. His versatile post game and offensive talent always impressed me. Today it seems that he came ready to work. He gave very good effort offensively and defensively throughout the workout. The first thing I noticed with Arthur was that he plays with power. He also did very well in the shooting drills. He nailed a fair amount of elbow jumpers during the drills. He also gave a lot of hustle and his handle was good for his position. He seems like he has a future as one of those solid but not spectacular power forwards in the NBA. He can score, rebound, defend, and block shots. The only question about him was his inconsistent production while in college. If he proves to be a consistent in the NBA then he could be one of the sleepers in this draft. He has very low bust potential and a fairly high ceiling as he good be an offensive post option for a team in the future.

Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky
Hands down the most impressive player in the workout. Lee showed great explosion throughout the drills and especially in live action. He consistently got rebounds and finished plays in traffic. He also showed a great jump shot even when pushed through long drills. He just seemed to have a lot of competitiveness in his game today. Picked up on drills fast and executed well. Looks like he will be able to help an NBA team immediately off the bench offensively and defensively. After watching him today and hearing this was his 10th workout, I doubt he will be available at 28 depending upon who stays and goes today. If he does drop into the second round then some team is going to get a real good player for next to nothing.

Shan Foster, Vanderbilt
Foster is well known to Memphis fans after getting to watch him star as a senior in the SEC. Shan was probably one of the best shooters in college last season. Transitioning to the NBA is going to be difficult for Foster. He lacks the explosiveness to thrive on the wings in the NBA and it showed during this workout. He also struggles to create separation off the dribble. Foster might have a long career in Europe ahead of him as his size and shot will be a big asset. Overseas his lack of athleticism and ball handling won't be as big a problem. He will get drafted but I don't see him sticking in the NBA very long.

Will Daniels, Rhode Island
Projected to go undrafted, Daniels showed some decent skill and promise. He will likely get an invite by some team to summer league and spend a few seasons in the NBADL. I am not sure he has the size, skill and position match to make it on an NBA roster but he will probably get several chances.

Jeremy Crouch, Bradley
Crouch showed off a nice shot in the workouts but does not have the game to make a career in the NBA.

Other Grizzlies Draft NewsThe Grizzlies were able to get private workouts with Danilo Gallinari and Brook Lopez while in California. I got the impression from Barone that Gallinari was real impressive and I already understand that Chris Wallace does like him. Also, I don't think the Grizzlies would have a problem drafting Gallinari and getting him signed. Barone referenced Lopez as an "old school, big center" with good hands and surprising quickness. He also said that Lopez is definitely a center only. I seriously don't think Lopez is an option for the Grizzlies with Gasol hopefully coming on board.