Be Careful What You Wish For

By MemphisX

It seems that New York Knicks President Donnie Walsh has thrown some cold water on the hot trade rumor sending Zach Randolph to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for the Serbian duo Darko Milicic and Marko Jaric. There have been some strong opinions on this deal within the Grizzlies fanbase and on the Internet in general. The general consensus has been that Zach Randolph is an unstoppable force of basketball horribleness, doomed to infect any team he goes to with some sort of plague. So many among the Grizzlies were happy to read that Walsh considered this deal "dormant". They have been wishing for this deal to hit a snag every since Ron Tillery first mentioned it a month ago. Be careful what you wish for...

I know that acquiring Randolph is not the last or only possible deal out there. That does not change the fact that camp opens in about three weeks. One of the biggest things for a young team is continuity. So making a big trade during camp or midseason that disrupts roles puts a lot of added pressure on a coaching staff that is already on the hot seat. You definitely should not bring in someone like Randolph during the season until roles are clearly established among our core players. So that means that more or less, the Grizz roster now will likely be what we will see on opening night. Be careful what you wish for...

Yes, the Grizzlies should have enough playing time available for all of our young players to develop. However, that is part of our problem. Conley and Lowry both think they should be starting and both of them can make a case for it. Mayo and J Critt at shooting guard but both of them really want to play point guard. Warrick and Arthur at power forward but neither of them like the post or rebounding. Darko, Gasol, and Hadadi at center and all three are either limited, inexperienced, or both. So other than Rudy Gay, there isn't another proven NBA talent on the entire roster. Be careful what you wish for...

So I was up for the trade. I wanted the Grizzlies to acquire a veteran capable of taking some of the scoring pressure off of Gay and Mayo. As is this team is going to be real easy to defend. Most of our scoring will be coming from the perimeter via our guards and Gay. None of the Grizzlies truly require a double team and our point guards and bigs are not experienced enough to utilize the pick and roll. So if you think defense is going to be our biggest problem, I simply can't agree. You can manufacture a decent team defense by scheme or effort but scoring in the NBA takes talent and mismatch advantages. The Grizzlies have very little of either. Be careful what you wish for...

Yes, acquiring Randolph was a risk. However, with a team devoid of low post scoring and really with only one other proven scorer on the entire roster, I think it was a risk worth taking. Randolph has his negatives. He is not a great or willing passer, he is a below average defender, he loves the strip club scene, and he has an entourage that is somewhat menacing. However, his two assets (interior scoring and rebounding) are the two things the Grizzlies need most. So it would seem that he would have to help the Grizzlies right?

...be careful what you wish for...

The Case for Zach Randolph

Every since the offer sheet for Josh Smith was matched, the news of the Memphis Grizzlies being interested in New York Knick power forward Zach Randolph has been cooly received by the Grizzlies fan base. After Isaih Thomas tenure, it seems everything he wrought is deemed toxic and unfit for consumption. So when Memphis Commercial Appeal Grizzlies beat writer Ron Tillery blogged that the Grizzlies were still considering trading for the troubled power forward, I took notice.

This topic has been discussed thoroughly on the Grizzlies message board and my initial reaction was pre-rehab Whitney Houston: "Hell to the Naw!" However, after digesting the potential deals, I think there is a deal out there that makes sense for the Grizzlies (my only care in this matter).

Now I admit that any deal that brings in Zach Randolph is a very big risk. Zach Randolph has never played significant minutes on a winning team. Being a member of the deteriorating Trailgangsters and the end of the Isiah era in New York, this might not be all due to him. Randolph has simply been reared as an NBA players in two of the most toxic locker rooms in recent NBA history.

His teammates that went .500 in Portland were as follows: Rasheed "CTC" Wallace, Bonzi Wells, Damon "Tin Foil" Stoudamire, Jeff McInnis, Derek Anderson, Ruben Patterson, Darius Miles and Qyntel Woods. Is there any wonder why he is a knucklehead? This was the season in which Portlands fans and ownership had seen enough and they started breaking up the gang to rebuild into the team they have today. (Interestingly, the Blazers have missed the playoffs 5 years during their rebuilding.) The issues in New York are well documented and ongoing and just like the Blazers, they pre-dated Randolph's arrival. So it isn't like he was the primary cause of the pitiful teams, he just did not resist the awful cultures that were in place.

The current Grizzlies are an entirely different animal. The team is free of knuckleheads with the exception of the recently acquired Antoine Walker. So if the Grizzlies do trade for Randolph, I expect Walker to be part of the trade or immediately bought out. Having both is a recipe for disaster. In fact, the Grizzlies are probably one of the tamest teams in the NBA. The majority of our core guys would be considered gym rats and rather vanilla besides Mayo. So if Randolph continues with his history of assimilating, he might just go with the flow and be a productive member of our up and coming team.

The deals I would do for Zach Randolph are as follows:

(1) Darko Milicic, Antoine Walker for Zach Randolph

(2) Darko Milicic, Marko Jaric, Adriana Lima for Zach Randolph

(3) Darko Milicic, Antonie Walker, Marko Jaric for Zach Randolph and Jared Jeffries

The best deal for Memphis is #2. This is the deal that I prefer and for sake of this article, this is the deal that I will be assuming that Chris Wallace will negotiate.

Now let's consider Zach Randolph the player. Randolph is a legit 20 point/10 rebound per game player in the NBA. At 27 years old and with 3 years left on his contract, it means the the Grizzlies should be getting the best three years of Randolph's career. Should Randolph come in dedicated to restart his career, his play could lift the Grizzlies out of the Western Conference cellar into the middle of the pact. Think 10th through 12th in the West unless we go on a miracle run like the Blazers of last year.

Offensively, Randolph is not just a low post threat, he is an elite scorer when motivated and in shape. He has a dependable jumpshot out to 18 feet and unfortunately started extending his range to the 3pt line in New York. He is almost impossible to contain one on one, even by great defenders. His combination of post moves, strength and ability to play angles makes him a load to stop. His down fall is that he does not make quick decisions with the ball as of late and stalls the offense as he "goes to work" on his defender. Sometimes he gets to caught up in the individual matchup.

Defensively, Randolph does not exert much energy. He is slow to get back on defense and not much help blocking shots. He is grounded mostly thus most of his help on defense will come in the form of finishing off an opponents possession by securing the defensive rebound. For the Grizzlies, this has been a problem almost since the day the team arrived. So if Hadadi and Gasol can provide adequate defense (which is doubtful) then the Grizzlies could actually have an improved defensive front. So you are not acquiring Randolph with the hopes of him developing into a defensive stopper, no more than you would acquire Reggie Evans and expect 24 points on offense per game. Randolph is a turbocharged version of Hakim Warrick.

So Zach Randolph, at the right price, could provide a cheap upgrade for the Grizzlies and keep them competitive next season while maintaining their youthful core. It would be a $48 million gamble which essentially takes the Grizzlies out of the free agent market in the future but it could pay very big dividends, if Zach Randolph wants to play.

Pacifiying the Fan Base

Out of nowhere Friday, the Memphis Grizzlies signed the most dynamic player on the free agent market to a 5 year/$58 million offer sheet that was immediately matched by his hometown Atlanta Hawks. Josh Smith was the prototype for the power forward position in the offense that Iavaroni wants to run.

The funny thing is that I don't think I read a single account by a Grizzlies fan that actually thought that Atlanta would not match that offer sheet because it was reasonable. So why would Chris Wallace and Michael Heisley even waste their time with the offer? Why wouldn't they do like Philly and trade some of their young talent to clear out cap space to make an offer to Smith that Atlanta would not match? IMO it is because Memphis finally has a GM that knows what he is doing.

The Memphis Grizzlies are on The Three Year Plan (3YP) for better or worse. The first year of this plan is going to be real painful. I am not sure most fans have a realistic concept of the type of frustration they will experience this season. As such, the pressure to "do something" will be hard and heavy once the 2009 NBA trade deadline approaches and the Grizzlies are in dead last in the Western Conference. So Wallace (and Heisley) need to buy time. And that is just what the Josh Smith offer sheet did for them.

Why waste their time with the offer to Josh Smith? Why not? Josh Smith would have been a great fit for the Grizzlies long term and his talent would have mitigated the lost draft position that they would have missed on with the better record. He actually would have allowed the Grizzlies to potentially complete their future starting lineup a year in advance and thus accelerating the 3YP into a two year plan.

Why not make moves to sign Josh Smith to an offer sheet that Atlanta would not match? Although I have previously advocated making an inflated offer to Josh Smith because I think his future production will justify the salary, the Grizzlies just could not do so with their current roster. If the Grizzlies pay Josh Smith based on what they project his production to be in the future, what do they do next summer when Rudy Gay comes up for an extension? The Josh Smith offer sheet establishes the Grizzlies as a market level contract giver. Giving Smith an inflated deal would have painted them in the corner of giving Gay a near maximum extension even if he just reproduced this past season's production. That is a bad precedent to set.

So in the end the Josh Smith saga was a one day break from the offseason hibernation that the organization is experiencing. It came out of nowhere but it does reveal the motivations behind the 3YP. The Grizzlies are on the lookout for an impact player at power forward. Also, there will likely be no rumors of what the Grizzlies plan on doing until it is essentially a done deal. Sucks for us bloggers and message board folks but is good business for the Grizzlies.