Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The Top Seven - Or who do you take with each potential pick

The men at 3 Shades of Blue have disagreed on many things during the season. Was Conley better than Lowry this year? Should Damon have opened the season starting? Is Miller better as a 6th man? You get the point. Usually they are simple differences of opinions and honestly wouldn't it be boring to hear the same thing day after day?

However this may be the first time we have actually started a blog with the express intention of pointing out our differences.

This should be interesting for that reason alone (and it makes Zack write something again before we have to start calling him Dr. Z!). I am including the fans voice as well as our own. For a proxy of the comman fan I am selections voted from the Grizzlies Message Board.

On May 20th the Memphis Grizzlies will be assigned one of the top 7 picks in the upcoming lottery to pair with the pre-determined 28th pick from LA. Not knowing where we are going to pick has created a lot of discussion about Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Jerrod Bayless and others as well. The odds were taken from the Wikipedia NBA Draft site. What's interesting to note is that the most likely pick for the fourth place Grizzlies is 5th followed by 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 4th and then 7th. Only in America.

So who would each of us take in each spot in the top 7 and why?

Pick #1) Probability 13.7%
ChipC3 - Michael Beasley - a beast who can score, rebound and occasionally even play defense. Is tied in my mind in talent with Rose but fills a more pressing need.
MemphisX - Micheal Beasley - Absolute freakin' beast of a player. Skilled and he can shoot. Grizzlies never had this type of physical interior player with skill. If Rose wasn't a Tiger, it would not be a question.
Zack - Derrick Rose - Like everyone else, it is a toss up between him and Beasley. I probably change my mind everyday between them. I think my final argument is that Rose is going to be a better PG relative to the average starting NBA PG than Beasley will be relative to the average starting NBA PF. The added benefit is that I think if semi-forced to deal Conley, the market would be very favorable to us.
Spartacus - Michael Beasley - I want him at this spot even though I don't believe that he is a "franchise changer" because he fills a gaping need in the frontcourt. I look at him and see Antawn Jamison in his current incarnation with his scoring, rebounding and range.
Grizzlies Message Board - Derrick Rose

Concensus: Michael Beasley

Pick #2) Probability 14.2%
ChipC3 - Derrick Rose - Probably the best PG prospect since Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Has Memphis ties as well but plays the position Memphis is deepest and forced trades to clear space rarely work out well for teams
MemphisX -Derrick Rose - I would love him at #1 also. He would bring excitement to the organization that would rival the team's first season.
Zack - Michael Beasley - If we draft Beasley, I think him and Beale street have a destiny to be marketed together (Beale Street Beasley, Beasley on Beale, Michael "the Beale Street Baller" Beasley...well you get the idea).
Spartacus - Derrick Rose - If you're taking Beasley first, you obviously have to take the hometown hero at this spot. He has all the physical tools to be one of the very best PG's in the NBA for several years.
Grizzlies Message Board - Michael Beasley

Concensus: Derrick Rose

Pick #3) Probability 14.5%
ChipC3 - O J Mayo – Or trade down honestly. Mayo as LeBron type potential but is more likely going to be a Jamal Crawford type of pro shooting too much and not being a team player. Still he could start at SG with Miller at the 3 and Rudy at the 4 for a small ball lineup or allow Miller to come off the bench backing up both Mayo and Rudy.
MemphisX - O.J. Mayo - I am just a big Mayo fan. Love his swagger, he can make shots, and he can handle the ball. He can defend.
Zack - Danilo Gallinari - The "Italian LeBron James" has the benefit of me never actually seeing him play a full game, so I have a hard time coming up with many negatives to his game. That's why is 3rd for me. Also, my gut tells me this is who Wallace has had his eye on since dealing Gasol for peanuts.
Spartacus - Kevin Love - I know a lot of Tiger fans will roll their eyes and shake their heads at this, but my reasoning is simple based upon my evaluation of him. If you had the opportunity to take the next Elton Brand or Carlos Boozer at #3, wouldn't you? That's the kind of player I see Love becoming with better passing ability and one heckuva mean streak.
Grizzlies Message Board - O J Mayo

Concensus: O J Mayo

Pick #4) Probability 08.25%
ChipC3 - Jerryd Bayless - I know we don't need his skills and all but do you pass on such potential? At 6-3 he has good size, he is fast, he can hit the outside shot (something none of the Grizzlies current PG's can do nor Derrick Rose for that matter) and he comes from a Program known as a factory for NBA PG's.
MemphisX - Anthony Randolph - Long, athletic and skilled. Nothing like Stro or Tyrus Thomas. He will be an offensive and defensive force.
Zack - OJ Mayo - I like his attitude, which is odd for me to admit because I had a negative opinion of him a year ago. We have a glut of guards, but I don't care. I'm trying to toughen up our team and I think Mayo does that
Spartacus - Nicolas Batum - He often draws comparisons to Rudy Gay, but with better ball-handling ability and defensive skills. Sounds like a future starting SG to me!
Grizzlies Message Board - Danillo Gallinari

concensus: None

Pick #5)Probability 32.3%
ChipC3 - Brook Lopez – Only if he shows he can play PF in the NBA. This pick scares the heck out of me since he doesn’t fill a need other than taking Hakim out of the starting lineup, which is a need in itself. Brook looks stiff and unwilling to impose his will in the paint and that was against college players. Scary to think how far Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan or Dwight Howard would push him away from the basket.
MemphisX -Danillo Gallinari - I think he will be a good NBA player. I love players with a history of being the top dog on their team. Can he defend his position?
Zack - Anthony Randolph - I don't know much about this kid actually. I think he is super-raw with loads of talent. It is unfortunate he attended LSU, because I can't help but compare him to Ty Thomas and our beloved Stromile
Spartacus - Anthony Randolph - I know the LSU connection will scare a lot of people when considering an athletic PF, but he has legitimate basketball skills to go along with his physical talents. If he measures up to a legit 6'10", then he could be a player similar to Chris Bosh, IMO.
Grizzlies Message Board - Brook Lopez / Anthony Randolph

Concensus: Anthony Randolph

Pick #6) Probability 15.6%
ChipC3 - DeAndre Jordan – Call me crazy but at #6 Jordan starts looking a lot better than more traditional names like Eric Gordon, Damilo Gallinari or Anthony Randolph to me simply because he has defensive rebounding talent. Memphis can be patient in letting him learn the offense. He isn’t exactly ready yet and his tourney performance scares the heck out of me but you have to take risks sometimes.
MemphisX -Eric Gordon - if he has an acceptable standing reach then he night go higher. If he is 6'3 in shoes then he might be out of the top 10. Great shooter and a supreme athlete. Injury and coaching change slowed him down.
Zack - Eric Gordon - We need better shooters and if we fall to #6, Gordon might be the best player available. I think he might take a few years to develop, so I'm tentative, but he grew up playing with Conley and would fit in with the fast-paced, helter-skelter offense Iavaroni seems to like.
Spartacus - O.J. Mayo - I know that people see "Superstar" when his name appears, but I see "Steve Francis". That is to say, I see an All-Star caliber player with the ego and attitude to go along with it. But at this spot, you have to take a chance on "Character Issues" in the hopes that he can let his talent do all the talking.
Grizzlies Message Board - Brook Lopez / Anthony Randolph

Concensus: Eric Gordon

Pick #7) Probability 1.3%
ChipC3 - Kevin Love – Only if he measures out close to 6-10 in his shoes. Love isn’t real athletic. He isn’t in great shape. What he does have is an incredible basketball IQ and the power to be a decent interior player on defense. The range to clear out the lane offensively. He has the best outlet pass I have seen in college ball since Bill Walton wore UCLA blue and gold. He just is too slow to run the court effectively. His conditioning needs some work as well.
MemphisX - Donte Green - he can shoot and rebound. Will be a matchup nightmare. So, so defender but has the athleticism to defend either forward slot. NBA range at 6'10 is just silly.
Zack - Nicolas Batum - Again, I don't know him very well, so he gets the benefit of me not seeing lots of negative aspects in his game. Ideally, I like his size to play the SG, so that we assure Rudy plays SF.
Spartacus - DeAndre Jordan - A risk? You betcha. A reach? Absolutely. Worth it if he turns out to be the next Andrew Bynum? You better bet your franchise on it.
Grizzlies Message Board - Eric Gordon

Concensus: None

Final Comments:
- I realize I am going after need more than talent but equal talent is available in many different and inexpensive places other than the draft. Heck CDR could be available at 28th. Memphis can trade down from the 4 or 5 spot to allow a team to get Jerryd Bayless or Brook Lopez. I prefer to have OJ Mayo if we pick third. So picks 4-6 could be candidates for moving down in the draft but it is doubtful. Switching the 2nd and 4th picks two years ago only brought Chicago Victor Kryapa in return. I wouldn't risk missing on one of the seven I want for another Kryapa unless his contract is expiring and it includes a top pick next year. So while moving down seems to make some sense I don't believe it will happen.

MemphisX -Others: Brook Lopez - his calling card from college is scoring and I doubt he will be a big scorer in the pros. Mark Blountish..., Jerryd Bayless - on talent he is on par with Gordon and Mayo but his size makes him a hard fit with Conley and DeAndre Jordan - I like him as a 2nd pick only.

Zack - I left off Lopez and Jordan on purpose. I just think big stiffs are not worth our draft pick selection. I'm fine with Darko being our big stiff. In fact, I think many teams will start to realize that you can sign a similar big stiff in free agency after the become a bust for the team that originally drafted them in the lottery. I do not want to see us draft a Patrick O'Bryant, Sene or even Spencer Hawes. Lopez will not be able to get the same inside position that made him effective in the (weak) Pac-10. I also left off Kevin Love because frankly the Memphis-UCLA is still fresh in my mind.

Spartacus - Others Brook Lopez - Left off, because quite frankly, I think he'll only be an average player in the NBA at best. Danilo Gallinari - I haven't seen enough legit tape of him to definitively put him in the Top 7 and I've seen everything they have posted about him on the internet to date. I don't want the next Skita on our hands. Eric Gordon - While I believe that he could be a solid SG in the League, his size worries me a little. He could be the next Ben Gordon, though.

BallHype: hype it up!


Anonymous said...

In my opinion our draft should be like this:

1) Derrick Rose - Derrick is the best player in the draft in my opinion and it will surely sell tickets if we drafted him. I would certainly go to even if it is just to see Derrick. You can't go wrong with a combination of Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

2) Michael Beasley - To me, he is a cross between Amare Stoudemire and Antwan Jamison. That's scary.

3) O.J. Mayo - I think he can be the next Dwayne Wade or Chauncey Billups in the shooting guard mold if he reaches his full potential. He is a player that everyone would come to watch, home or away.

4) Eric Gordon - I don't know if he can be a star or not, but I do know that he will probably be a bigger better version of Ben Gordon.

5) DeAndre Jordan - I think Jordan can be an absolute star and I would much rather have him that Lopez. He has a chance to be Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum.

6) Brook Lopez - I am not a huge fan of Lopez at all because he is soft and isn't a great athlete. That doesn't bode will in the NBA. But hey, he's way better than Darko.

7) Anthony Randolph - I heard he is just like Chris Bosh. Bring him in- we sure need someone like that. We don't need Kevin Love, though. To me, he is going to be a huge bust in the NBA. He is not athletic (see the Tigers vs. UCLA where CDR makes a fool out of him), he has conditioning problems, and he is only skilled in the low post even though he is only 6'9. That seems like a bust to me, but who knows

28) Chris Douglas-Roberts if he is there or Joey Dorsey if he is not - Both of these players would make Memphis explode in joy if the Grizzlies drafted either one of them. CDR, in my opinion, is just like Rip Hamilton or Jerry Stackhouse. Joey is the next Ben Wallace (before he got the contract). If one of these players is still on the board, Wallace has to at least look to draft them.

I'm not a GM, but this is the kind of draft board I would have if I was. It could be horrible, but thats why I'm not a GM.

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