Spartacus is Dead!

I've been contemplating doing this for awhile and it seems that the time is right. With the recent uproar that was created when noted journalist and author Buzz Bissinger attacked Deadspin.com creator (and author in his own right) Will Leitch on Bob Costas' HBO show, I decided that it was time for me to step out from the shadows of anonymity. After all, one of the big issues that the "established media" has with bloggers is that they hide behind usernames of their choice and therefore, don't have the level of accountability that journalists, columnists and reporters are supposedly held to. In fact, in a recent thread on the Grizzlies Message Board, a poster called out others that he claimed were hiding "behind screen names", rather than taking people to task who deserve it (owner Michael Heisley in this particular case). Well, I cannot do anything about that for anyone else, but I can do my own part by "killing off" my screen name here.

Spartacus is now dead on 3 Shades of Blue. My name is Joshua Coleman. I'm a 28-year old home improvement contractor/landscaper and one of the biggest Grizzlies fans in existence. I created this blog, I invited ChipC3, Zack, MemphisX and CarlCR to contribute and I'm the one responsible for what happens here -- good or bad. As they say, the buck stops here.

Reviewing Expectations and Predictions

Back before the season began, I predicted what each player's statistical output for the season would be. Let's take a look back and see just how far off I really was with the primary players, shall we? If you want to see how the role players did, I'll let you check out the link above and see for yourself.

Mike Miller

Prediction: 32 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .472 FG%, .422 3PT%, .795 FT%

Actual: 35.3 MPG, 16.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, .502 FG%, .437 3PT%, .774 FT%

Then: Mike will see a slight drop in overall scoring as his minutes decrease, but his efficiency should increase since he won't be dog-tired by All-Star break.

Now: Miller shot better from the floor and rebounded more than I thought he would, but overall, I'm pretty pleased with my prediction, especially since I pointed at his efficiency increasing, which is exactly what happened.


Rudy Gay
Prediction: 32 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, .440 FG%, .380 3PT%, .720 FT%

Actual: 37 MPG, 20.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .462 FG%, .346 3PT%, .785 FT%

Then: Rudy should see slight increases across the board in his second season, most notably in the defensive categories and rebounding as he'll shift over to PF in some lineups. Hopefully, I'm lowballing him, but I don't want to set expectations too high, which is something we'll discuss later in the post.
Now: Well, I guess that "lowball" might not even cover it, although I don't think that anyone expected that big a leap in Rudy's scoring and efficiency -- including him. Again, I was very close on rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, but considerably off on scoring and shooting percentages.

Darko Milicic
Prediction: 28 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2.2 BPG, .475 FG%, .626 FT%
Actual: 23.8 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, .438 FG%, .554 FT%

Then: Darko will be given ample opportunity to prove himself, and after a slow start will warrant the opportunity to start and finish games. His free throw shooting will continue to be a problem area for him, even as he reverts back to a higher shooting percentage from the floor.
Now: Darko didn't start slow at all, but an injury-plagued season derailed his efforts to show that he's not the bust that the media makes him out to be. On a per-minute basis, his stats are actually very close to what I predicted.

Juan Carlos Navarro
Prediction: 20 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, .445 FG%, .409 3PT%, .820 FT%
Actual: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, .402 FG%, .361 3PT%, .849 FT%

Then: "La Bomba" has been the hit of the preseason so far, with his electric play carrying the team in the 2nd halves of most games. If he manages to avoid "the rookie wall", he could be in the running for Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year...or both.
Now: JCN was just as inconsistent as any other rookie, leading to shooting percentages that were much lower than I predicted. Looking back, I obviously went way too high on PPG for someone I was expecting to play less than half a game. I thought that Navarro have much more of a score-first mentality, but he was a more complete, all-around player than that.

Kyle Lowry
Prediction: 26 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, .395 FG%, .379 3PT%, .875 FT%
Actual: 25.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, .432 FG%, .257 3PT%, .698 FT%

Then: Kyle appears to have surged into the lead as the heir apparent for the PG spot when (not if) Damon is traded this season. While that may only last for part of this season, it is encouraging to potentially have two young starter-quality PG's on the roster given the issues the Grizzlies have had at that position the past few seasons. He's another guy that I'm tempering expectations for, since there are so many variables at the PG position this season. I expect him to play more MPG than either Conley or Stoudamire, even though he'll likely be coming off the bench to start the season.
Now: Well, Kyle didn't start often (only 9 games), but he did manage to log a lot of MPG even still. Kyle wasn't the facillitator that I was expecting, which led to much lower assist numbers than I was anticipating. Lowry's shot improved mechanically through the season, even if his perimeter percentages don't reflect that. Also, I'm begging him to spend all summer with Mark Price after seeing those free throw numbers.

Hakim Warrick
Prediction: 13.0 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .530 FG%, .743 FT%
Actual: 23.4 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.5 SPG, .502 FG%, .704 FT%

Then: Why the drop in minutes after Hak played so well last year? Because of the arrival of Darko Milicic mostly, but also because Warrick doesn't play defense, doesn't pass the ball and can't dribble. Marc Iavaroni can forgive one of those things in a player, but not all three. If Stro does get moved, then perhaps Hakim will find some additional playing time. Otherwise, it will take some serious growth and development on his part to become a contributor for this team, IMHO.
Now: Obviously, I didn't expect the team to trade Pau Gasol mid-season, which led Hak getting far more minutes than the prediction above. Even with that said, it is a little disconcerting that Warrick's assists, steals and blocks weren't any better with the additional playing time. Hak still doesn't play defense, pass or dribble very well.

Mike Conley
Prediction: 24.0 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, .408 FG%, .338 3PT%, .793 FT%
Actual: 26.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 0.8 SPG, .428 FG%, .330 3PT%, .732 FT%

Then: Conley is expected to be the PG of the future, but I think he'll spend most of this year learning from Damon and Kyle, rather than being thrown directly into the fire right off the bat. He'll struggle some, because that's what rookies do, but by the end of the season he might be splitting minutes evenly with Kyle.
Now: Mark me down for being wrong on the reasoning, but right about the stats once again. Conley started 46 of the 53 games he appeared in, as the coaching staff felt that he was ready to assume that role as soon as Damon Stoudamire was released. Conley wasn't as disruptive on defense as I expected, but he was a better shooter/scorer than I anticipated.

As mentioned earlier, I can't make myself go through the Andre Browns and Casey Jacobsens on the roster, but I'm considering reviewing the players who are no longer on the team. If you're interested in reading more about Pau, Damon and Stro, drop a line in the Comments.

Season in Review: The Cardinals

As we enter the deeper parts of the Grizzlies bench I am going to do several players at once. Frankly their isn't that much to say otherwise about them.

Today we focus on the Cardinals. For those unfamiliar with the Grizzlies roster make up that is Brian Cardinal and the Stanford boys Jason Collins and Casey Jacobsen.

Jason Collins was the largest contributor last season among the three and not solely because of his size. At 7 ft and 255 pounds Collins was the most physical player in the paint for the Grizzlies last season. He didn't produce in the box socres but his presence was felt in the game by the opposition. Collins is not a scorer or rebounder despite his size but his physical play and excellent fundamentals allow other players to score and reboung when he is in the game.

Collins is on the last year of his contract and is not expected to be resigned when that contract is up. That does allow Memphis to use his contract in a deal to acquire more talented players until the trade deadline or his expiring contract could be used to try and entice a FA to Memphis if no deal is made prior to that.

Casey Jacobsen was a disaster for Coach Iavaroni and the Grizzlies last season. The former German league Playoff MVP was unable to find his shot all season finishing. His 33.9% from the field and 22.2% from the arc was not what anyone expected from the former Stanford sharpshooter. The Mason, as he was called by less than enthused fans for the large amount of bricks he put up during the year, was actually rumored to have been benched by the owner Micheal Heisley and not Coach Iavaroni. That raised many eyebrows considering Tarence Kinsey, last season's surprise player at the end of the year, was released by the Grizzlies in December in favor of Jacobsen.

Casey did work hard when on the court and was rumored to be a good player in the locker room but effort and personality aren't a substitute for baskets in the NBA. Defensively Casey actually was more impressive than expected but he started from such low expectations in that area that even with his effort it didn't make him a solid defender. This was probably Casey's last opportunity in the NBA and is expected to resign overseas or retire. It will be interesting to see who the Grizzlies ask to be his replacement as the team blogger. While he didn't seem able to perform on the court, Casey's blog was by far the best written among the Grizzlies blogs.

Brian Cardinal still has his fans in Memphis but they are becoming fewer and fewer as his contract continues to balloon and his production continues to fall. Cardinal continues to deny that his knee is causing him any problem but after two surgeries and a less than stellar athletic talent to begin with it could be simply a situation where the wear and tear has taken too much of a toll on him. The heart and intelligence are still top notch however. Cardinal saw his steals drop below 20 for the season (10) for the first time since joining the Grizzlies and that was despite a 127 minute increase in playing time from the previous year. Cardinal shot a career low 30.9% from the arc in a season where he played at least 16 games and a low of 34.0% from the field as well.

Cardinal looked slow and feeble in the uptempo style prefered by Iavaroni and the Memphis fans. Cardinal is still signed for an additional two seasons and at the MLE maximum it isn't likely he will be traded anytime soon unless Memphis decides to move one of their rookies. The good news is that owner Michael Heisley has insisted the team play better defense next year and that could mean a more deliberate attack which could favor Cardinal's game. Being another year removed from surgery should help as well but that also means the 31 yr old Cardinal is another year older. Old is not a good thing to be on the current Grizzlies roster.

Who Matters for the Grizzlies?

I read an excellent post by Dave on Blazers Edge the other day and it got me thinking about the Memphis Grizzlies (just about everything does after all) and how our team fits into this philosophy.

In Dave's blog he discussed the different tiers of players on a team. While not earth-shattering in his revelations he does put things into a format that other teams/blogs can use to evaluate the makeup of their team. To semi-quote Dave:

Tier One: These are the 1-3 players (max!) who form the core of your team. This is your Dwyane Wade in Miami, your Kobe and Pau in L.A., your Big Three in Boston. There is a huge, unbreakable line right under this tier to differentiate it from all of the others, as they don’t even compare.
Tier Two (Optional): If you only have 1 or 2 Tier One guys your team will often have supporting stars to fill out those top 2-3 spots. These are the Shawn Marions of the world. They aren’t carrying the team on their own but those Tier One guys aren’t going to score all the team’s points themselves. They need an 18-20 ppg guy here or there.
Tier Three: These are usually the rest of your starters after Tiers One and Two and often your 6th man. (Though some teams have their star guys be the 6th man…c.f. San Antonio.) They’re good players. They’re important to the club and you suffer when they’re out for long stretches. They’re going to win a few games for you either by busting out every now and then or supporting the stars so well. Your good team tends to turn average really quickly if you don’t have the right guys in these positions. But they’re not the guys opposing teams circle on the scouting report.
Tier Four: These are your 7th and 8th…sometimes if you’re deep your 9th or (rarely!) even 10th man. They’re usually able veterans or up-and-coming firebrands. Most nights they just fill in minutes to get the starters rest.

So what players fall into what spots on the Grizzlies? Who do they have heading into the 2008-09 season that can fill these four tiers?

I am going to limit this discussion to players under contract for next season. That means no Juan Carlos Navarro, Andre Brown, Casey Jacobson or Kwame Brown discussion. I also won't venture a guess on the Grizzlies draft or free agent moves other than to say finding a Tier One player and a Tier Two or Three player would be considered a high priority for the summer shopping list.

Tier One: Not knowing what the lottery holds for the team Memphis is stuck with only one Tier One player. That is Rudy Gay and he makes the list by the slimmest of margins and only because I expect him to improve next season. Not to the extent he improved this season but improve just the same. To truly be considered a Tier One player Rudy will need to improve his rebounding, ball control and most importantly his passing. Tier One players lead teams and to do that they need to be able to get others involved by making good passes to open teammates. Rudy didn't show the ability to do that in his sophomore season.

So I put Rudy in as a Tier One player but not a solid Tier One. More of a Tier One and a Half I suppose.

Tier Two: These players are supposed to be the nightly 18-20 pt players who support the stars and are capable of leading when the Tier One is off or being shut down by the defense. I think this is where you would place Mike Miller. Although not quite an 18-20 pt scorer his assists, rebounds and court presence is a definite aid to the Tier One players he has worked with (TMac, Gasol and Gay). An argument could be made that Miller is actually more of a Tier Three player than Tier Two but I think the leadership Miller exhibits on the court moves him up the Tier.

The problem is that a team needs three players in the top 2 tiers and Memphis has only two and both are debatable in those roles. If Memphis signed a true Superstar would Rudy continue to be viewed as a Tier One player or would he slide into a Tier Two role? If Miller is moved to the bench to allow a better defender to start at the SG position would that move him to Tier Three or would he remain a Tier Two player? When people say Memphis lacks talent this is what they mean.

Tier Three: This is where the player fans will start hating on me. I put Hakim Warrick, Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley all in this Tier. By definition the Tier Three players are the rest of the starters or the 6th man and are good players. The problem is that only one of these players (Mike Conley) has to potential to move up to a Tier Two player next season. Hakim is too selfish and too weak defensively to be considered a supporting star and since he turns 26 next season I don't think those deficiencies are likely to change in his fourth season. Kyle Lowry is a bulldog PG who is most effective coming off the bench and shooting only 26% from behind the arc means against starting PG's he not only won't have his outside shot respected but defenses will be able to cheat into the lane to double interior players.

Conley is different. Mike finished the season on a very high note and has shown the ability to hit from outside far more consistently than Kyle. Conley could move into the 16-18 ppg range next season and combining that with 6-8 apg should put him squarely in the Tier Two range but that is the best case scenario and there is no guarantee he will achieve that level. Conley's rookie numbers are very similar to Tony Parker's numbers and I still believe that is the upside potential of Conley which could put him squarely in the Tier Two category. However a slow start and strong play from Lowry may limit his potential to make the big step.

Tier Four: These players abound on the Grizzlies. From Brian Cardinal to Jason Collins to Javaris Crittenton, Memphis has players who can give a big effort on any given night but don't seem prepared to make consistent contributions or aren't physically able to do it every night. Of these players only Javaris seems able to move into the Tier Three group. The good news is that his talent could possibly take him even higher. Currently Javaris biggest weakness is the logjam of players at his prefered position and his lack of an outside shot.

So where does that leave the Grizzlies. They obviously need a second Tier One player, a player to step up and produce as a Tier Two player and a stronger Tier Three player coming off the bench or starting who would pick up a specific role of rebounder. A strong rebounder (I don't care about anything else with this player) would go a long way in strengthening the defense and improving the psyche of the team.

It isn't likely that the Grizzlies will acquire two of these positions in the off-season but it is possible.

Season in Review: Javaris Crittenton

Javaris Crittenton had a tough rookie campaign. Buried on the bench in LA he rarely was given an opportunity to show what he was capable of doing. Then Chris Wallace demanded he be included in the trade for Pau Gasol (LA was rumored to want to give the Grizzlies someone else) and he was freed from purgatory known as the bench but also moved from PG to SG/SF. Quite a change for the 6-4 19 yr old from Georgia Tech.

Javaris adapted and was one of the bright spots coming off the bench in the 2nd half of the season. Teamed with Kyle Lowry and Juan Carlos Navarro, JCrit became a playmaker. Not exactly a player who set up plays but a maker of plays. He made momentum changing plays. He crashed the lane, he found open players and basically he was fun to watch, something lacking for most of the season in Memphis. The one drawback was JCrit's inability to shoot the ball. He averaged only 40% from the field and 28% from the arc with the Grizzlies. Crittenton has never been a good outside shooter and will need to work extensively on that part of his game if he wants to become a top notch player in the NBA.

JCrit is definately a player. For the first time Memphis has someone in the backcourt who has superior athletic ability. He may not have JWill's vision and creativity but he isn't far off and considering his age there is no reason to think he may not reach that level in the future (unless you are the typical Memphis fan who believes nothing good will even happen in Memphis). He hasn't developed his outside shot yet but JCrit is a far better defender than anyone else in the backcourt already and has the physical ability to overpower smaller guards and the speed to get by bigger guards. He just needs to slow the game down in his mind so he can make better decisions with the ball. JCrit often forced shots in the paint after overcommitting to the drive. This is a typical mistake for younger players and should be addressed over the off-season.

When Javaris had it going however he really was something fun to watch. In February he had 22 points at Houston. He had 23 points against the New York Knicks in early April. He scored 17 points against Chicago in a particularly promising effort combining the 7-15 shooting with 4 rebounds and 4 assists. There were glimpses of greatness but they were surrounded by periods of ineptitude as JCrit's poor shot selection and difficulty adjusting to an unfamiliar role with the team created more problems than usual for a rookie.

So what does the future hold for JCrit? It has been said that JCrit would be playing PG in the summer league this year not SG/SF. That should give the Grizzlies a chance to see him at his more natural position. He would bring size to the PG position that Memphis doesn't currently have which would be a positive? He also has all summer to work with Shooting Coach Mark Price in Atlanta (JCrit is from Atlanta) in an attempt to improve that area of his game. It is extremely fortunate that JCrit's hometown is also the Grizzlies shooting coach's hometown, both played point guard at Georgia Tech and Price knows what the team wants from JCrit. If he works hard this summer there should be dramatic improvement in that area.

Defensively JCrit just needs to earn the refs respect because the effort and ability is there. Rookies aren't going to get calls in the show and JCrit needs to stay positive during the adjustment period to learn what refs will accept and what they won't. Right now JCrit is the #3 PG, the #3 SG and the #3 SF. He is also one of the youngest players in the league who will need to earn court time to improve. This is an important time for JCrit and he has a lot of pressure on himself. As a young guard in the league and the named player wanted in a trade for a star he has to feel some pressure to perform to justify the team's desire in him. Adding to that pressure will be determining how he gets on the court next season with Conley, Lowry, Miller and Navarro currently ahead of him on the depth chart.

Javaris did get some good news on Friday as Marc Iavaroni was retained as head coach with a mandate to improve defensively. Crittenton is better defensively than Navarro or Miller already. That gives him an opportunity to break into the rotation at the shooting guard position. While not the position he has played most of his life he has enough size and speed to perform that role. The key to his future with the Grizzlies will be his ability to hit the outside shot.

Season in Review: Darko Milicic

Darko Milicic finally got his shot at starting in the NBA. It wasn't pretty. Sure Darko had moments of brilliance but he sandwiched those around nights of complete ineptitude. Injuries played a huge roll in Darko's inconsistency but it doesn't explain everything. Darko shot 43.8% from the field, 55.4% from the line and grabbed only 6.1 rebounds per game. When you are talking about a 7-0, 275 pound center those are not good numbers.

The good news is that Darko is only 22 years old. To put that in perspective, Joakim Noah is older than Darko and averaged worse numbers as well. Heck, Darko even has better hair than Noah. To assume the past 4 years of disappointment means Darko can't improve is ridiculous. Consistency on defense and better shot selection on offense can improve the tenor of discussion about Darko immensely.

Darko opened the season with a strong effort against Tim Duncan and the Spurs. His 8 pts and 7 boards belittled the defensive impact Darko had on the game. He followed that up with another solid game with 9 pts and 7 rebs against Indiana's big line of Jermaine O'Neal and Greg Foster. Then Darko really started playing. He averaged 12.2 ppg and 9 rpg over the next 5 games while playing over 30 mpg. He was coming into his own and becoming a crowd favorite. Then came the Hornets game and Darko injured his thumb. It was a bad sprain and even Marc Iavaroni said that his was the type of injury that could affect him all season. How prophetic that comment seems now.

Darko rushed his return and in the 2nd game back he landed on the side of Joel Prybilla's foot spraining his ankle and sending him back to the infirmary. Again darko rushed himself back but the drop in production was dramatic. Thru the first 7 games Darko had not scored less than 6 pts, grabbed fewer than 7 rebounds nor played less than 28 minutes in a game. For the season Darko averaged 7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 23.8 mpg. The drop off was even more dramatic than the statistics indicated. Darko had 2 double-doubles in the first 7 games. He didn't have his next double-double until January 8th.

Darko seemed to be regaining his footing in March when he averaged 9.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg but that isn't the type of production people envisioned Darko having at the beginning of the year for a good month of play. By that time many Memphis fans had already given up on the season in general and Darko in particular. The losing, injuries and the fans lack of interest all seemed to weigh heavier on Darko than most of the team. When the Serbian-Kossovo situation erupted, Darko took it more personal than one would expect from a professional basketball player.

Passion. That in a nutshell describes Darko better than anything else. He seems to feel more from external forces than a multi-millionaire professional athlete should. Bad calls affect him. Fans affect. World political events affect him. Most players in the USA today can't tell show you where Serbia is on a map much less Kossovo. Darko is passionate about so many things it seems to interfere with his ability to perform at times. When Darko scores early he likely will have a strong game. If he misses his first few shots it will be a long night as Darko seems to abandon any thought of shooting after a slow start. The thing most people must remember is that Darko is young and alone in the US. It probably isn't a coincidence that Darko had one of his best games (16 pts and 11 boards) against New Jersey who also start a Serbian center (Nenad Kristic).

Darko will enter next season in the middle year of his 3 yr contract with a single motivating image on improvement.

“I just have to try to be consistent…Playing back home or playing here, I’ve never been consistent. I’ve played games where I score a lot or rebound a lot then come back the next game and not do anything,” he said. “That’s always been my problem…I don’t know why, if it’s mental, not having enough concentration, or not having enough maturation, but I play up and down all the time. If I get that straight and play consistent all the time, (the big games) can happen a lot.”

So Darko knows what the problem is. The question now is can he fix it?

Darko is the 3rd Grizzlies player (Miller and Navarro being the others) expected to tryout for their national team this summer. Serbia however does not have an automatic berth in the Olympics. To qualify Serbia must perform well in the pre-Olympic tournament held in Greece. Some people may remember that Greece defeated Serbia in last year's European Championship and Darko had some rather inflammatory remarks about the officiating after the game. I imagine Greece will be less than hospitable to Darko when he plays. Serbia was a major disappointment last summer and looks to rebound this year. If they do then Darko may be playing nearly the entire summer for his country which may not be a good thing for the Grizzlies.

Darko has flaws in his game and needs to work on improving the areas of weakness. Unfortunately he may not have a lot of free time this summer to do that.

All You Need to Know About the 2008 NBA Draft

The 2008 NBA Draft is fast approaching and the Memphis Grizzlies will once again hope the basketball gods are kind to them for the first time in franchise history and we are blessed with a franchise changing talent. At this point it doesn't matter what position that player plays, at what position he is drafted, or what college he attended. We need a franchise changer!!! Until we get one, we are just spinning our wheels.

Enough of that...Here is what you need to know for the 2008 NBA Draft:

The 2008 NBA Draft will be held on June 26, 2008 in Madison Square Garden in New York.

The deadline for college underclassman and international players under the age of 22 to declare for the NBA Draft was April 27, 2008. The NBA released the names of the players who declared on May 1st.

The players who declared for the draft have until June 16th or ten days before the draft to withdraw their names from the draft and return to school or Europe.

The Memphis Grizzlies will have the 4th most chances to win the the 2008 NBA draft lottery on May 20th. This is how it breaks down:

Miami Heat have 250 (out of 1001) chances or 25.0%
Seattle Sonics have 199 or 19.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves have 138 or 13.8%
Memphis Grizzlies have 137 or 13.7%
New York Knicks have 76 or 7.6%
Los Angeles Clippers have 75 or 7.5%
Milwaukee Bucks have 43 or 4.3%
Charlotte Bobcats have 28 or 2.8%
Chicago Bulls have 17 or 1.7%
New Jersey Nets have 11 or 1.1%
Indiana Pacers have 8 or 0.8%
Sacramento Kings have 7 or 0.7%
Portland Trailblazers have 6 or 0.6%
Golden State Warriors have 5 or 0.5%

Here is a complete breakdown on the lottery numbers.

The drawing of the ping-pong balls is conducted in private, though observed by independent auditors and representatives from each team. The results are subsequently presented in a short ceremony (typically broadcast prior to or during halftime of an NBA playoff game), in which the order of the lottery is announced in reverse order, from the fourteenth selection to the first. Representatives from each NBA franchise with a lottery pick are present at the lottery ceremony.


One week after the lottery is determined, the NBA will hold its 2nd official pre-draft camp in Orlando. The 2008 Orlando pre-draft camp will run from May 27-June 3. The rules for the pre-draft camp can be found on Draft Express. The NCAA has allowed college underclassman to have their expenses for workouts paid by the NBA which is why there are a lot of "strange" declarations by some juniors. Individual workouts, however, still are not allowed until the conclusion of the Orlando pre-draft camp on June 3rd.

Iavaroni Stays - There is Still Hope

So Memphis owner Michael Heisley chose stability (and a lower cost to the team) over more change and confusion. Good decision Mr. Heisley. You made the right call in keeping a bright basketball mind and allow him to develop and show what he has learned after one season as an NBA coach. The decision was lauded by George Karl and Mike D'Antoni as being a smart move so don't just think this is my opinion. After a season of roster shake ups and basically being dealt a roster of extremely inexperienced players it is only right that Iavaroni be given a second chance to turn things around in the Forum. Besides he is one of the best communicators in the NBA today and that is great for Grizzlies fans.

I do have one drawback from the story filed by Ron Tillery.

Apparently Mr. Heisley told Coach Iavaroni that he needed to improve the team's defense dramatically from last season. I had flashbacks of Mr. Heisley's meeting with Mike Fratello two years ago when he retained him as coach despite wide spread rumors to the contrary. At that time Heisley told Fratello he needed to play the young guns more and to be more uptempo. That wasn't what made Fratello successful as a coach. He was good at coaching veterans with a defensive mentality. With Mike Miller, Jason Williams/Damon Stoudamire, Pau Gasol and no true center that was difficult to achieve in Memphis but he did a good job by slowing down the game and minimizing possessions. To demand he move away from his strengths as a coach was a disaster.

The Grizzlies hired Marc Iavaroni to play uptempo and push the ball. The team improved their pace from the Fratello days finishing 7th in the league in that regard. Their effective field goal percentage was 50.0 which put them 13th in the league despite a lineup loaded with young players. So judging from what Iavaroni had and what he was asked to do coming in the season wasn't a total disaster.

Now, like Fratello before him, he is being given another chance with the team but only with the mandate to change what he is comfortable doing. That seems to be a recipe for disaster to me unless massive changes are made to the personnel on the team. Two starters are terrible defenders (Miller and Warrick) and would be far more effective players coming off the bench. The problem is that their backups (Crittenton, Navarro and Cardinal) are either too inexperienced or too weak physically to be starters and if the Grizzlies execute their plan of building threw the draft that isn't likely to change this season.

If there is a bright spot in this dark cloud that has become the Grizzlies it is that Iavaroni was known as a defensive player as a pro and was tutored under the defensive minds of Mike Fratello in Cleveland and Pat Riley in Miami. Of course both of those coaches had dominating centers in the post. Alonzo Mourning and Brad Daughtery allowed their coaches to pressure the perimeter and allow the interior to be attacked because their interior presence could prevent shots from being made. That wasn't the case in Memphis last season. Darko did well defending his man but he didn't show the quickness to impede opponents shots in the lane. Iavaroni's defensive approach was what he had learned. Iavaroni played with Moses Malone and Mark Eaton, coached Mourning and Daugherty and assumed the defensive strategies that worked with those players would work with Darko.

It didn't and it won't unless Darko comes back next season a changed man.

There is little hope of finding a dominating interior defender in this year's draft either. So with an inexperienced but improving back court, a gaping hole in the shot blocking category and a sieve defensively at PF how exactly is Iavaroni supposed to improve the team defensively? DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Love, Randolph and even god forbid Michael Beasley isn't going to provide that for the Grizzlies.

I hope I am wrong. I hope Chris Wallace finds a great defensive player to help out the interior for Memphis. I hope the younger players show a dramatic increase in their ability to stop people on the perimeter. I hope Iavaroni finds a way to combine a slowdown effect to limit teams opportunity to score with an offense that is enjoyable to watch. Mostly I hope Grizz comes back healthy next season from his bout with non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma.

So I guess what I am saying is all I have left is hope.

Fall Out from the Gasol Trade

In case you hadn't heard, Pau Gasol was traded to the LA Lakers back in January.

That one trade has done more to disrupt the balance of power in the Western Conference than any other action since Magic Johnson announced he had contacted the HIV virus. Teams panicked on the news of the Lakers acquisition and the result of that panic is now starting to be felt in many interesting places. It has caused normally reserved men like Greg Popovich to cry foul and demand an oversight committee to look into the trade as being anti-competitive and illegal. Of course, I imagine he wouldn't hold his Spurs to the same light of inspection when they acquired Michael Finley, Damon Stoudamire, Kurt Thomas or Brent Barry. That is a different discussion however. One I may have later but not today.

Mike D'Antoni is supposedly out as head coach in Phoenix. Why? There is only one real reason. He couldn't win the title with Shaquille O'Neal at center. Why did he have Shaquille O'Neal at center? Because Steve Kerr panicked and traded away Shawn Marion to get him because the Lakers got Pau Gasol. Phoenix was a relatively young team three years ago. Today they are ancient with Steve Nash (34) unable to stay in front of Tony Parker, Grant Hill (35) unable to stay healthy and Shaq looking every bit the 36 yrs old he is. Sure Amare Stoudmaire is young but Raja Bell is 32, Brian Skinner is 30 and Gordon Giricek is 29. Now the 'Run and Gun' Suns have become the retirement community of the NBA. How long before Phoenix takes dynamite to their lineup and starts all over? I would anticipate it begining around late June personally.

Dallas was up 2-0 two years ago in the NBA Finals before falling to the Heat. They were the best team in the league during the regular season last year winning 62 games. They fell to the 7th seed in the west this year, lost in 5 games in the playoffs, fired their coach and look likely to blow up their team as well. What happened? Look no further than the panic move orchestrated by Mark Cuban to acquire Jason Kidd. The Mavs gave up Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop and draft picks for JKidd (35) only to realize that he is over the hill. Throw in Jerry Stackhouse (34), Dirk Nowitzki (30), Eddie Jones (36) and Erick Dampier (33) and you have an over the hill group of players with very little young talent except Josh Howard who is actually 28 and has admitted to smoking pot in the off-season. The only players who should still have their best years ahead of them in Dallas are Juan Jose Barrea, Brandon Bass and Antoine Wright.

San Antonio is old but still damn good. They dispatched the Suns with relative ease 4-1 but one has to wonder how different that outcome would have been had Tim Duncan not hit the 3 pt shot at the end of the first OT. The Spurs are getting by with Brent Barry (37), Bruce Bowen (37), Tim Duncan (32), Michael Finley (35), Fabricio Oberto (33), Kurt Thomas (35), Damon Stoudamire (35) and Jacques Vaughn (33). That is not including Robert 'Big Shot' Horry who is 38. How much longer can the Spurs continue to survive with 9 players over 30 and Manu Ginobilli and Ime Udoka joining the group this summer when they hit 31? Can San Antonio wait to blow things up with so many competitors getting a head start on rebuilding? I guess it depends on how far they go in the playoffs but it has to happen soon.

Denver is another team looking to blow up the core. Despite winning 50 games, qualifying for the playoffs for the 4th straight season and having three all-stars on their team, George Karl is under the heat lamp for a number of things. Most important is he failed to win a single game against the Lakers in the playoffs. When you have the 3rd highest payroll in the NBA you aren't supposed to be swept in the first round of the playoffs. Heck you aren't supposed to be the 8th seed for that matter. Icing the cake were comments made by Carmelo Anthony that the team quit in the third game. Teams aren't supposed to quit. Players aren't supposed to quit. Coaches don't survive when teams quit in their first home game of the playoffs prior to being swept. Look for Denver to look to move some core pieces over the summer as well and when you change coaches and look to trade all-star players you are blowing up the team.

Throw in Golden St (who has to make some big decisions with Don Nelson, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Mickeal Pietrus) and Sacramento (similar thoughts with Ron Artest, Mikki Moore and Brad Miller) and the there is a lot of change going on in the Western Conference. So that is 6 teams out of 15 that are looking to renovate their rosters over the summer if not completely gut and rebuild their houses. Not all of the change is directly related to the Gasol trade but a lot of it is. When that much turmoil is around interesting things are likely to happen. If you think the people in charge aren't going to make bad decisions I just point you to the trades that resulted in Jason Kidd and Shaquille O'Neal returning to the Western Conference. When people are under pressure to win right away people make bad decisions.

So who has benefitted besides the Lakers from the trade? You have to assume Portland with another lottery pick, all that youth and still waiting for Greg Oden to suit up should see an immediate benefit from the teams at the top collapsing. Houston, if they can hold together another season with the team they have, should step up into the top 4 but probably can't surpass New Orleans as the elite team in the Southwest Division. Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler are just entering their best years and Julian Wright looks like he will be another big contributor if Peja or MoPete slip in production. Utah looks solid and should remain among the best in the West as well.

Then comes the 2nd tier teams. These teams aren't serious contenders yet but could move up over the next year or two, depending on how manic some teams get about their rosters. Seattle is young, have another early lottery pick and will be cheered by fanatic fans if they go to Oklahoma City. Minnesota is young and talented and also should find a starter from this draft. Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, Rashard McCants and Ryan Gomes is a good core of young players and all they need is a big and a true PG in this draft. They should be able to find that in the top 6 picks.


And then there is Memphis. The Grizzlies have young talent, many draft picks over the next few years and cap space almost every other team in the league dreams of having. Chris Wallace is the GM and he has been a good drafter of talent, if a questionable judge of that same talent in trades. The good news is Memphis wants to build via the draft. The need is to increase the overall talent on the team. From what has been made public the team isn't looking to bring in over the hill players who won't mature with the core and they aren't looking to spend money that doesn't correspond to butts in the seats so don't expect them to overpay for unknown players no matter how talented nor trade for 28+ players no matter how well known. That is not the strategy Heisley wants to pursue. Having Wallace in charge under this scenario is actually a positive for Memphis. Positives are something that Memphis has been in short supply of the last few years.

So how will Memphis prosper in this era of turmoil and turnover in the West? First, the team has some assets for teams looking to rebuild. Mike Miller is obviously on the wish list for a team looking to stretch a few more seasons from their current lineup and want a scorer off the bench. San Antonio, maybe Phoenix and possibly Dallas could look to offer something to Memphis in the way of expiring contracts and draft picks. Golden St, Phoenix and Denver could have interest in Hakim Warrick. He is an active PF who can run the court after all and defense has never been a major concern for those teams. Memphis is loaded with young PG's that might intrigue Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio.

Second, and far more likely and important, Memphis has young players already in place. As long as they hold onto the talent and allow them to develop the team should be in a strong position to pass the current teams that have to start over. The Grizzlies will have to be smart with their moves both from the draft, free agency and trades, but they have some intelligent people working for the club and an owner who is finally interested in making the team successful.

It won't be easy but Memphis may actually benefit from the turmoil they created in trading Pau Gasol in ways the club never imagined.

Season in Review: Mike Conley

Mike Conley had a tough rookie season. The season opened with him not in the regular rotation and ended with him starting but in between were many ups and downs. Mostly downs in his injury filled season.

The Grizzlies nearly lost more games through November (10) than Conley did in college and high school combined (11). Various injuries caused him to miss 29 games during the season including a nasty shoulder injury that nearly ended his season. Had surgery been required it would have been the 2nd consecutive year a rookie PG had been lost for the seaso due to injury for the Grizzlies. In the 53 games he did play Conley started 46 and looked remarkably calm running the point for a 20 yr old. As the season progressed he became more comfortable being aggressive with the ball and by the end of the year Conley was putting up big numbers averaging 14.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg and 4.3 apg in April.

Due to some interesting substitution patterns and the shoulder injury Conley didn't make his first regular season appearance at FedEx Forum until January 6th but he made a good first impression in his first appearance in front of the home crowd with 11 pts, 5 rebounds and 7 assists against Miami, his old AAU buddy DeQuan Cook and former Grizz PG Jason Williams. An impressive start to say the least. However the grind of the season, another injury and rookie hesitation caused him to become somewhat erratic and often tentative as the season progressed. It seemed like Conley was more concerned about not making a mistake rather than making a play.

This was most obivous in March. It is rumored he sat down with Coach Iavaroni durin gthe month and discussed his situation. Supposedly Coach I told him that he was going to play the player who was producing and Lowry was producing. He is rumored to have told Conley that when Mike decides he wants to be more aggressive he will get more playing time. Whether or not this rumor is true is unknown but Conley became more aggressive after that point of the season. Mike scored in double figures in 7 of the last 10 games 5 straight games to end the year. He set his career high in points with 25 against Phoenix on April 12th.

Outside of the injuries the real concern with Mike was his defense. Mike is undersized at the point and struggled with more physical PG's like Deron Williams and Chris Paul who can post him up. Mike's leaping ability (40 inch vertical) will allow him to be effective rebounding long misses but he is not built to bang with more physical players like Kyle Lowry is able to do. The surprise was his lack of tenacity on the perimeter however. Conley is blazing fast yet averaged less than a steal a game. With his quickness Mike needs to become more aggressive in passing lanes and harassing slower PG's off the dribble. Perhaps the injuries made him tentative, perhaps the pace of the game but regardless of the excuse Mike will need to creat more turnovers to earn greater playing time.

I suppose you could say Mike needs to be more aggressive on offense, like he showed in April, and on defense which means he either suffered from the traditional rookie wall or is just too tentative as a person. Judging from his performances in the NCAA tournament last year I don't believe Conley is too tentative. Conley routinely stepped up at Ohio State in pressure situations. Perhaps playing with Greg Oden, his best friend aided that confidence but he will need to become more aggressive at this level to be considered a success. Only time will tell if that happens.

It is obvious that Memphis is rebuilding their team with youth and at this point Conley is definately part of the plan for the future. When comparing Conley to other short, quick PG's in the league as rookies the picture is not bleak. Conley averaged 9.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg and 4.3 apg this season. He shot 43% from the field and 33% from the arc. Tony Parker averaged 9.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg and 4.3 apg as a rookie in San Antonio and he had David Robinson, Manu Ginobilli and Tim Duncan to pass the ball. Parker shot 42% from the field and 32% from the arc. Parker also has developed into one of the most imposing PG's in the league and won the MVP award for the NBA Championship last year.

I think most Grizzlies fans would be content with Conley developing along those lines.


I had to put this hear. It is just too cool to watch!

Coaching Carousel

File this one away under the "General NBA" category, but since Zack broached the subject last night, I think it is fair game for me to delve into.

As teams fall one-by-one and leave the postseason landscape, the coaches get handed pink slips too. Today, the Suns fired Mike D'Antoni and the Mavericks fired Avery Johnson. There are rumors that the Raptors are going to let Sam Mitchell go as well. First, let me look at whether or not these coaches are truly at fault for their teams' shortcomings.

Sam Mitchell is a defense-first, grind-it-out coach, which doesn't gel with the "Suns North of the Border" scheme that Colangelo wants to build. Making the playoffs last year is what saved his job. However, this year's first round exit will be enough to allow Colangelo to justify showing him the door, especially with the news that Mike D'Antoni is now available. I'm not sure where a guy like Mitchell fits in, so it might be a few years before he gets another head coaching job in the NBA.

Mike D'Antoni is not at fault for what happened in Phoenix this season (or last season), but he has been tabbed as the scapegoat. Age, injuries and Steve Kerr are all more at fault than the coach who was the darling of the league the past few seasons for his free-wheelin', frenetic pace that brought casual fans back in droves. The advancing age of Nash, Hill and Shaq slowed everything down. The injury to Hill left the Suns without anyone capable of playing great inside/outside defense on Ginobili and Diaw. The deal that brought Shaq to the desert was the ultimate "Do or Die" move for Steve Kerr. Guess what -- they died. To echo the thoughts from a recent post by the guys at Hardwood Paroxysm: The Suns didn't get the break they needed this year or last year. That's not D'Antoni's fault. D'Antoni would be a good fit in Toronto, given that Colangelo loves his style of play, but I believe that the Tom Skerrit lookalike could go to Chicago and have the Bulls at contender status in as little as two seasons.

Avery Johnson. The Little General. The blame for the Mavericks playoff struggles go beyond the carcass of the player formerly known as Jason Kidd. After all, Kidd wasn't on the roster last year when they got bounced in the first round by the Warriors or the year before that when they let championship dreams slip through their fingers against the Miami Heat. Johnson's playoff record is a well-publicized 23-24, which is a fine effort for a coach that takes over a team that is making the transition from lottery to playoffs to contender. But Johnson took over a team that was already a title contender and racked up that record, including two first round exits in the last two postseasons. I think the players deserve a lot of blame (as they always do, since they are the ones actually out on the floor), but in this case, the coach is as much at fault as they are, which means his firing was justified, in this blogger's opinion. His future could include the New York Knicks.

Now, with that said, there has been a lot of talk about the apparently uncertain future of the Memphis Grizzlies own coach, Marc Iavaroni. In fact, there are those on the Grizzlies Messageboard -- as well as this very blog -- that say Ivy should be fired if Avery Johnson would be willing to come to Memphis. I cannot stress just how much I disagree with this opinion on so many levels. First, there is the already mentioned lack of postseason success. Next, there is the fact that the Mavs players went ahead and held a practice after Johnson had already canceled it, which is nothing short of a mutinous action. He lost his team's respect, period. Finally, there is the very obvious question of why AJ would want to come to Memphis to begin with? Is there one viable reason? Anyone? Bueller? Didn't think so. Let's put this ridiculous "not-even-developed-enough-to-qualify-as-a-rumor" idea to bed.

Marc Iavaroni might not be safe just yet, but after putting up with the Larry Brown and Scott Skiles rumors emanating from New York writers, do we really need the team's own fans coming up with their own far-fetched stories about improbable scenarios? Give Ivy a more talented team to coach and you might be amazed at how much better a coach he becomes. After all, even Phil Jackson has missed the playoffs before. So have Pat Riley, Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown and Gregg Popovich, just for the record. How about if we all exhibit the tiniest bit of patience with a young team, a young coach and a new GM? Or is that too much to ask?

Update: Some helpful info from Chip about some pretty good coaches who had limited success as rookie head coaches.

Mike D'Antoni:
1st season as Head Coach-Denver 14-36
1st season as Head Coach-Phoenix 21-40

Byron Scott:
1st season as Head Coach-New Jersey 26-56
1st season as Head Coach-New Orleans 18-64

Jerry Sloan:
1st season as Head Coach-Chicago 30-52
1st season as Head Coach-Utah 40-25

"I'm Back" Top 10 List (including what future unemployed coach we should try to hire)

1. I'm back...sortof. I haven't posted on 3 Shades of Blue since sometime in March, I think. Maybe February. Quite frankly, after the Gasol trade, I was bored with the team. At the time when I described my apathy towards the rest of the season as being "bored", 82% of Griz fans agreed with my sentiment. I still watched most of the games after the all-star break, but I just didn't want to get all wrapped up in posting and analysis of games that for all intents and purposes were meaningless. Sure we have young players and this was a great opportunity to see them grow and develop. I really enjoy watching young players develop into better players on the court. But I just kept being reminded of Tarence Kinsey, circa Spring 2007. I thought I was watching him grow as a player into a quality NBA player. He was an undrafted rookie, who battled through a broken eye socket, made the team, and then when presented with playing time, played well and got better with each game. Now Kinsey is somewhere in Europe playing and is a distant, albeit painful, memory for most Griz fans. I learned 2 lessons from last year. First, don't over-react and over-analyze the performance of players on the worst team in the league playing in meaningless games. And being a die-hard fan, that was going to difficult to do, so I decided at the very least, I shouldn't go publishing and putting my analysis of essentially meaningless games on record. And second I learned that more meaningful development and growth in the game of young players is probably done in the offseason and not in games for a team wanting to obtain the best lottery odds as possible.

And besides, since I've been on hiatus, Chip has been killing it. That interview with Heisley was great. He's really been making this site award winning. He may have raised the level of expectation on our posts here at 3 Shades of Blue such that my ramblings come up a bit short....lol.

As the draft approaches I'd like to post more. But I'm pretty busy, as I am preparing to defend my doctoral research this summer and am in the midst of trying to secure post graduation employment. Heck come next year, I may be providing Griz analysis from an NBA city other than Memphis. Enough of this rambling, how about I share some of my Griz and general NBA thoughts with our three readers who have the ability to trick the Sitemeter into thinking there were hundreds of unique hits.

2. After Avery Johnson is fired, we should look to hire him. Of course that would mean canning Iavaroni, which although I'm not necessarily in favor of, I'm not necessarily against either. I like Avery as a coach. He's obviously went awry in Dallas, but that wouldn't stop me from giving him control here in Memphis. I think the future would be brighter with him at the helm than with Marc. I think Avery has a philosophy and system he is actually committed to implementing and that he believes in (I'm not sure that Iavaroni is convinced he knows what his philosophy is yet). And I bet Avery would love to get the chance to stick it to Dallas by coaching in their division.

Although I want the Grizzlies to find some consistency on the bench (Rudy has had like a billion coaches already), I don't think keeping consistency should be a strong argument to stick with Iavaroni and his coaching staff next year. I think being reasonable in a critique of Marc's job performance this year puts him on a hot seat on shaky ground. He had questionable rotation patterns (more on that in a bit). It did not look like he had a system he was trying to build with. His words and actions about a commitment to defense and his defensive philosophy didn't match up. There were rumors he did not mesh well with most of the players. Basically, the more and more I think about it, Iavaroni should feel lucky if he is the coach again next year. But I have one point that I feel argues the best for him to stay. The growth of Rudy Gay. No matter how well Marc handled the other 15 or so players on the team throughout the year, he was the head coach overseeing and directing Rudy Gay's coming out party. That should count for something.

Anyway I'm digressing. Avery is going to get fired this week. When he does, I hope Heisley contacts his agent. If there is serious interest there, I hope they work out a verbal agreement, then fire Iavaroni, hire Avery, and get Avery and Chris Wallace together to figure out how to shape this roster to fit Avery's preferred style.

3. Attention outside world: Javaris Crittenton does not play Point Guard for the Memphis Grizzlies. Holy crap, I don't think I could say that enough times. Chip and all his link-worthy posts on here have brought in readers who aren't necessarily Griz fans. For those of you actually reading this, file this nugget of information away. Crittenton did not play a single second as the "point guard" this season for the Memphis Grizzlies. He was only an "off-guard". Sure he would occasionally bring the ball down in transition situation because we were usually trying to push the ball as fast as possible. But even then he looked like an "off-guard" handling the ball.

When outsiders analyze the Grizzlies roster, they usually spend a fair amount of time on our point guard situation. And they always speak in terms of if we have a 3 (or even a 4) man battle for PG minutes. This is simply not true. Since Conley returned from his mid-season injury, there wasn't a single second of time that Conley or Lowry wasn't on the court as the primary ball handler. We never once this season had Crittenton or Navarro fighting for PG minutes. This myth has just been building all season and it has finally made me snap. I think this was the exact article that I snapped on. By Steve Aschburner from SI...

Conley was the fourth player selected overall, the only point guard among the draft's top 10 picks. But he arrived in Memphis as the third point guard on the team's depth chart and, even with veteran Damon Stoudamire gone, still vies for playing time with Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton and Juan Carlos Navarro. And they aren't even the most celebrated point guards in the city -- that would be Derrick Rose, freshman at the University of Memphis and likely no worse than the second player picked in this June's draft.

Sorry Steve, Crittenton and Navarro never once vied for playing time with Conley. In other words, Conley never once lost even a second of playing time to Crittenton or Navarro. Lowry? Sure, he lost lots of playing time to Lowry. That argument is valid and is what Steve should have stuck with and would have backed up his overall point. But including Crittenton and Navarro in there gives the wrong illusion of our actual situation.

4. Most Under-reported Story of the Year: Heisley tells Iavaroni to quit playing Casey Jacobsen before the January Laker game. First, go here and look at the game log for Casey. Look at how much his playing time dipped starting with the 1/8 Laker game. Not long after that Laker game, Chris Vernon (best sports time radio host in Memphis) told me about this story. Heisley told Iavaroni before the Laker game to quit playing Casey and start playing Hak. Marc obviously followed orders. At the time, the rumor was still underground. It wasn't in the papers yet. I don't believe Verno had mentioned it on his show or blog right away. Later, Verno did talk about it frequently on his program and put it on his blog I believe. We then started to allude to it on here a number of times after that. Then surprise, surprise, on-the-ball Griz beat writer, the great Ronald Tillery, was the last to get in on the act on April 2nd and finally reported the story in the paper (typical Tillery M.O. this season: after Verno breaks Griz news or talks about a certain Griz situation either on his radio program or his blog, the great Tillery then writes about it later in the paper and frames the presentation of the information as if it is brand new and has never been reported previously).

Anyway. I find the story of our owner deciding Casey playing too much was worth his time to intervene with and tell his new head coach who he should and shouldn't play quite interesting. The story didn't get enough attention, in my opinion.

5. Uncertainty thick in the air. I think if there is anything certain about this offseason, it's that nothing is certain. Except for that Rudy Gay will be wearing #22 for us next season. Who knows if our starting PG will be Conley, Lowry or Derrick Rose. Who knows if Miller will still be on the team. Who know if we re-sign JC Navarro. Who knows if Marc Gasol will come over and play for us. Who knows if Hak will start at PF, be stuck to the end of the bench or get traded. Who knows what Darko will be like if he returns. Who knows if Iavaroni is still the coach next year.

I think just about anything is possible this offseason. We may stand pat and just add a few draft picks. We may turn nearly the whole roster over. I think where we draft and then who we draft will have a huge amount of influence on how we shape or re-shape our roster. Wait, if my point in #3 comes true, Avery Johnson being our new coach will have an even greater influence. Ok, whatever, the point is that the only thing I know to be true about the 2008-09 Grizzlies is that Rudy Gay will be on the team. Beyond that, who knows.

6. My Draft Board. I'm dreading May 20th. By 8pm that night I will undoubtedly be very pissed off. That is of course the night David Stern will just dig the knife in a little deeper when he announces we are picking somewhere between 4 and 7. So in light of that, here is my current top 7 draft board for the Grizzlies Lottery pick. I'll probably update it again after the Orlando camp and we start having private workouts.

1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasely
3. Danilo Gallinari
4. OJ Mayo
5. Anthony Randolph
6. Eric Gordon
7. Nicolas Batum

My preferred outcome is for us to draft Derrick Rose either at 1 or 2 and then trade Conley to Portland. Wait, I guess if we got Beasley, I still wouldn't mind us trading Conley to Portland. Let's just move on from that point for now. We have a whole summer and likely another full year of Conley vs Lowry debate. : )

Since I'm taking the pessimistic side of this year's draft lottery, my best case scenario is that we get either Gallinari or Mayo at #4. I don't care if Gallinari plays the same position as Rudy technically. I have seen most of other guys enough to have too many negatives on each, the unknown of the "Italian LeBron James" has me currently won over.

7. Free Agency plans. I think like most Griz fans, I understand that who we draft with our lottery pick will likely determine what kind of player we target in Free Agency. Regardless of who we draft, I think we should (in some fashion and to some degree) implement this free agency strategy: Go for Broke and Force teams to overpay their players.

Here is what I would do, knowing full well that we will not net a big time free agent and will eventually settle for a second tier player or nothing at all:

1. At 12:01 on the first day of free agency, I present Josh Smith with a Max Contract. Within 7 days, the Hawks will match.
2. As soon as the Hawks match Josh Smith, I move onto Iggy if he is still un-signed. I then watch Philly match his Max Contract.
3. Then I move onto Monta Ellis and then Loul Deng. I sign them, not to Max contracts, but darn near. And watch their teams match both of them.
4. By then it will be late into Free Agency. The period where players get over-paid would be over (and we would have been the cause of many over-valued contracts). Then we either sign some second tier player for a reasonable Darko like deal (like Josh Childress or JR Smith or Ben Gordon) or we simply re-sign Navarro and bring Gasol over and save our money for the next year. Who knows, maybe we get lucky and get Josh Smith (even with a max contract).

8. Game of the year: Rudy officially becomes our guy. This is the game I remember the most. This will probably be the only game I remember in 5 years. In this game, Rudy made it perfectly clear that trading Pau and building around Rudy was the smart move. Enjoy that moment again:



9. NBA Playoffs and go read Hornets247. The playoffs are pretty good so far. I enjoyed seeing the Mavs lose in the 1st round. The Cavs-Wizard series has been really good (and physical). I'm currently over-joyed watching the scrappy Hawks going toe-to-toe with the Celtics. That Suns-Spurs double OT opener was almost as good as it gets (and in the case of the Suns was essentially when they lost the series). And as for our good friend Pau, unfortunately I don't have much good to say. I'm rooting against him. I get sick when I see the Nugs big guys play patty cake with Pau now while he plays for the Lakers, after all those times of playing the school yard bully on him when he played for us. I feel bad for thinking and saying it, but I hope the Lakers are out of the playoffs as soon as possible and that Pau plays bad in their defeat. Sorry to our Spanish readers for that. I'll make it up to you and cheer for Spain to win the Olympic Gold, ok?

If the playoffs have done anything for the NBA, it has made NBA Blogs even more relevant. Things are getting out of hand. There is too much NBA related stuff to read on the internet right now. I'm overloaded. Luckily, I've found that many of the big Blogs seem to be mirror images of each other and I end up just reading virtually the same thing. That is were team-specific blogs come in. And if you aren't reading Hornets247 right now, you are missing out. It is a great thing to see a up and coming young team emerge as a surprise Championship Contender and at the same time see a blog devoted to covering that team follow lock-step in the ascension upwards. Truthfully, if the Hornets weren't so good this year, I probably wouldn't be reading Hornets247. But the Hornets are good. And Hornets247 has been even better.

10. Me and my poor ole Tigers. I will end this blog post with this. Even now, I am totally deflated about the Memphis Tigers losing grip of OUR national championship. For at least one week after that devastating night, I couldn't watch ESPN or read any sports related website. And for me that is saying something. I didn't read a single word in the Commercial Appeal. I have no idea what any local or national sports writer wrote after the game. I couldn't stomach to read it. While I write this I am still a mix of steaming mad and dangerously depressed about not winning. I want to pick up something, anything and throw it through the wall in frustration, followed by throwing up into the newly created hole in the wall and then falling to the ground crying. I still just can't believe we didn't win. I'm not sure how I will be able to stomach watching DRose or CDR or Dorsey play next year in the NBA. It's going to be hard. I will never get over that game I'm sure. The bitter taste of a crushing defeat that ruined a darn near perfect year where I saw myself invest my emotions into a team like never before, is just too much for me to take. I'm not sure if I will ever be able to click on the "Mens NCAABB" link on any site ever again.

That's all. I might not post again for a while. Just too busy. Hopefully I'll be able to chime in with joy and elation at our lottery luck on May 20th, but I'm not holding my breathe.

Carmelo Anthony to Memphis?

Ever since Bill Simmons wrote this column last week, Grizzlies fans have been abuzz with the thoughts of acquiring the "star player" that they missed out on in the much-ballyhooed 2003 draft. Again, even though I am loathe to do so (and because this is the kind of thing that the Sports Guy loves to criticize bloggers for doing), I have to take exception to his suggested trade proposal:

The Bernard King Award
To Melo for (what's soon to be) another quick playoff exit, another dicey off-court incident and an inevitable summer of trade rumors. Remember, Bernard battled drug/alcohol demons and bounced around for his first few years before eventually landing with (cueing up the Marv Albert voice) ... the New York Knickerbockers. It's unclear how to define Melo's problems beyond the whole "you can take the kid out of Baltimore, but you can't take the Baltimore out of the kid" joke, but clearly something is going on, and during an era when younger stars are much more personable and squeaky-clean, Melo seems to be a throwback to the mid-'90s, back when young players still made dumb mistakes and were surrounded by a swollen entourage at all times.

I don't see him spending his entire career in Denver, much less next season, and there's a 98.7 percent chance he'll become the focal point of every trade rumor this summer. For instance, what if the Grizzlies get the No. 2 pick and decide they want to take hometown kid Derrick Rose even though they already have three point guards on their roster. If you're Denver, do you trade Melo for Mike Conley Jr., Hakim Warrick and Mike Miller, chop a few million off your payroll and hope Miller and Linas Kleiza can replace Melo's numbers (which, by the way, they would)? If you're Memphis, wouldn't you sell tickets with Melo, Rose and Rudy Gay? In other words, aren't those two teams a match? What if Minnesota got the No. 2 pick? If you're Denver, would you offer Melo to the T-Wolves for that pick (plus expiring contracts) and take Rose? See where I'm going here? If the Nuggets can turn Melo into a point guard, cap space and/or something else, don't they have to think about it?

(Of course, Melo can vanquish the previous two paragraphs by putting the Nuggets on his back and torching the Lakers for the next few games when they don't have a single guy who can defend him. Let's just say I'm not keeping my fingers crossed.)

Let's break this one down point by point, shall we?

1. Carmelo Anthony is a SF. Coincidentally, so is Rudy Gay. I know that Rudy played some PF this season and that if he improves his ball handling ability over the next few seasons he'll probably wind us at SG unless the Grizzlies draft/sign/trade for a high-level player at that position. But the fact is that the team's two best players would play best at the same position in that scenario. In addition to that, Rudy Gay's sophomore campaign produced better stats than Melo's. Higher RPG, SPG, BPG, FG%, 3PT% and virtually the same PPG, APG and TO. In other words, isn't it possible that Rudy is going to be as good as (if not better than) Melo in another season or two? Consider that Strike 1.

2. Yes, in all likelihood, a lineup that included Rose, Gay and Anthony would sell tickets in Memphis, which is a concern in these parts. However, the real question is this: Will they win playoff games and playoff series? Memphians have seen regular season success before and it no longer impresses them that much. I know that Melo was the best player/leader on that Syracuse team that won a national title, but has he been that player in the NBA? According to most fans, we already had one alleged franchise player that couldn't make a difference in the postseason, despite posting quality numbers in the regular season and postseason. Do we really want to travel down that road again so soon? Melo has made the postseason all five seasons in the NBA.....and has yet to advance beyond the first round. I realize, of course, that basketball isn't a one-man game (unless that one man is named LeBron), but that's what we in the business call a "pattern". It was a pattern for Kevin Garnett (who needed an All-Star season from Sam Cassell to finally get over the hump) and it continues to be a pattern for Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Some players just don't have it in them to be "The Man" in the NBA Playoffs. Lack of postseason success (and an apparent lack of concern about that result) equals Strike 2.

3. To follow up on being "The Man" in the playoffs, we now come to this issue: Is Carmelo Anthony a Superstar? (Note the capital "S") I say no. Is he a star? Absolutely. He's a great scorer and has displayed the ability to be clutch beyond belief -- even on par with Kobe and LeBron. However, a Superstar elevates his teammates in addition to being the go-to guy on offense. Oh, and a Superstar makes more than marginal effort on defense -- not that Melo even does that. If Melo isn't a Superstar, then why should the Grizzlies trade away a solid offensive option (Mike Miller) and one of the top PG prospects in the last few seasons (Mike Conley) for a guy that is very, very good, but ultimately isn't great or a true difference maker? I realize that Simmons hates the Grizzlies (as evidenced by the fact that he is constantly trying to move them to another city every other week) and really hates Chris Wallace (and not just for the Gasol trade that made the Lakers a championship contender for the next 5 seasons), but for Pete's sake, we do want this team to experience some playoff success in the future and eventually make the leap to contender. Does this trade accomplish that without Rudy Gay and/or Derrick Rose becoming All-NBA level players? I don't think so. We'll call this one a foul tip to keep him alive for one more point.

4. Salary cap structure. This is why the team traded away Pau Gasol for draft picks and cap space, remember? Taking on Carmelo's salary means that they once again have a max contract taking up space. So when the time comes for Rudy Gay to get his max-level extension, guess who is sitting there making $17 million or roughly 30% of the salary cap? That's right - Melo. Then when Derrick Rose is ready for his extension the year after that, guess who has a player option for $18 million? Newsflash Sports Guy: Boston might be able to afford 3 guys making max money, but Memphis cannot. If they could, then Pau Gasol would still be here...and Allen Iverson or Vince Carter probably would as well, but that's another story for another day. Ring him up, because that's Strike 3.

Carmelo Anthony to Memphis? No thanks, I'll pass -- even though he doesn't.