Science 101: Chemistry vs Biology

"I think our team realizes that talent doesn't just win; you've gotta have chemistry. You can't build chemistry. The players have to do that."
Joe Bugel

Continuing our welcome back to school week (we covered civics yesterday) we now have a science lesson for our readers. It has been posited lately that all a team needs to be successful is talent. If the genes are in place the wins will come. Classic examples of team biology defeating team chemistry include LeBron James and the Cavs reaching the NBA Finals over Detroit's 5 man team concept in 2006, Allen Iverson and the Philadelphia 76ers' run to the finals in 2001 and the Jason Kidd led New Jersey Nets reaching the NBA Finals in 2002. Pure and simple these 'teams' were examples of how one incredibly talented individual overcame the accumulated chemistry of well balanced teams.

On the opposite side you have Detroit in 2004 when they dethroned the Lakers led by Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal, Karl Malone and Gary Payton. Clearly the genes were on the Lakers side in that series but the Pistons chemistry carried the day. The Pistons have been to 6 consecutive conference finals with a group of players originally believed to be fringe performers at best but their combined strength was better than their individual excellence.

To be a successful franchise you need both chemistry and biology. Just like in the real world neither science exists independently of the other. A team of superstars can't win every time without team chemistry and a team with perfect chemistry can't defeat defeat a star filled team every time. However a biologically talented team with proper chemistry can become a dynasty as the Chicago Bulls proved in their heydays and the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics have proved more recently.

So what does this have to do with the Memphis Grizzlies? Well, nothing right now as the team doesn't have either proven individual talent nor great team chemistry but the 'plan' is to have both within a few years. So what comes first: the chemistry or the biology? Memphis is trying with their youth movement to acquire the genetic material needed to match skills with the best teams and then build the team chemistry behind that talent. As Joe Bugel said it takes players to build the chemistry. You can't just coach chemistry per se. Sure you can have team building exercises and all but true team chemistry comes from knowing the other players on the team's likes and dislikes, strengths and weaknesses and that takes time.

Right now the Grizzlies are building the biological base with such talented players such as Rudy Gay, O J Mayo and Mike Conley. Next the Grizzlies need to add the players that will be the glue to make the team hold together. That chemical bond that will make the individuals function as one cohesive unit. There will be times when the chemical bond won't hold but from those failures comes the knowledge to build better bonds and stronger chemistry among the team.

What is needed most on the young Grizzlies roster is some consistency to let the bonds grow. The most experienced player in the team is Hakim Warrick and he is still on his rookie contract. So the entire roster has been turned over in just over three years. It is difficutl to establish solid chemistry with that much turnover. Next season there could be many more new faces. There is an over-crowded PG position, a big need for depth at both forward positions and inexperience in the middle. Even with all of these weaknesses the Grizzlies have a strong biological base and need to develop the chemistry among the players to become winners.

So basically you need the biology (talent) to win in the NBA but talent alone is not enough without the chemistry to make them consistently successful.

Class is out for today.

Related Stories:
Finding the Formula for Team Chemistry



Consulting a travel advisor is mandatory before making travel plans on travel trailers or thinking of bus travel.

Hamed Hadadi vs the US Government

Most children have started back in school this week. In honor of this glorious event in a parent's life I thought it appropriate we have a little U S Government lesson. And naturally I am going to find a way to inject the Grizzlies into this civics lesson.

No. There won't be a test at the end so you can relax.

By now most Grizzlies fans have heard the rumors about Hamed Hadadi's interest in playing for the Memphis Grizzlies this coming season and suspected the Grizzlies have a similar interest in signing him as well. After all the 7-2 Iranian is leading the Olympics in rebounding, 2nd in blocks and has played well for a particularly poor Iranian team that has little talent outside of Hadadi.

Unfortunately signing an Iranian is not as easy as signing a Spanish player (and as Memphis knows signing Spaniards isn't that easy). Hadadi is an unrestricted free agent. That is clear. However, the NBA has contacted all 30 teams and informed them “We have been advised that a federal statue prohibits a person or organization in the United States from engaging in business dealings with Iranian nationals” according to Yahoo Sports.

So the US Government has put up road blocks. Iran is one of the 'Axis of Evil' countries and Americans aren't allowed to enter into contracts with Iranian citizens without a background check. We can't have any terrorists coming into the country after all. The NBA is acting to get an 'OFAC license' on behalf of all 30 NBA teams plus the NBDL teams. This would allow any team in the league including NBDL teams to enter into a contract with Hamed.

What is an OFAC license? OFAC stands for Office of Foreign Assets Control and is a division of the Treasury Department. These are the guys who freeze foreign assets in times of domestic concern.

You may not realize this but freezing assets and issuing sanctions has been around a lot longer than the Patriot Act too. During the War of 1812 Secretary of the Treasury Gallatin administered sanctions against Great Britain. During the Civil War congress approved laws prohibiting transactions with the Confederacy. The OFAC actually replaced the Office of Foreign Funds Control which was created during WWII following the German invasion of Norway. The idea was to stop the Nazi's from repatriating funds in the US to be used against the US in the war. The OFAC was originally established during the Korean conflict against China attempting to do the same thing.

Now joining the Nazi's and the Red Army of China we have Hamed Hadadi. Wow! Now that is some auspicious company wouldn't you say?

Basically the OFAC prohibits any financial dealings with individuals or country's on the banned countries list. There are naturally exceptions made all the time but protocol has to be followed and that is what the NBA is doing presently on Hadadi's behalf.

There is little doubt that the license will be issued and Hadadi will be able to sign with a team in the NBA. The problem is that he played really well in the Olympics. Sure he is slow footed and never played anywhere outside of Asia prior to the Olympics and the Utah Summer League but he created quite a stir in those appearances. The longer this takes the more possible it is for some other team to convince him to sign with their team. That is never good for Grizzlies fans.

So what are we talking about? How good is Hadadi?

Hadadi is basically a 23 yr old, inexperienced, slow big man who scores with either hand, rebounds well, doesn't mind mixing it up under the basket and shoots a decent Free Throw percentage. And let's be honest, there aren't a lot of 7-2 centers around right now capable of doing those things who don't cost multi-millions to acquire. Will he be a star in the NBA? Probably not but he is worth a look.

Here's hoping the US Government acts quickly enough for the Grizzlies to sign him before someone else starts whispering in his ear.

Related Stories:
Hadadi Hits Out at NBA Legal Counsel
Trading with the Enemy
US Should Allow Iranian to Fulfill NBA Dream

The Mike Conley Bowling Challenge

Via Grizzlies.com, we're proud to present the Mike Conley Bowl-N-Bash. Click the link for full details, but here's the quick and dirty version:

September 27th, 12:00-3:00 PM Funquest, Collierville Entry fees: Five-man team: $300 donation or $60 per person. Each bowler will receive a t-shirt, autographs, and a photo opportunity with Mike Conley.

For those unfamiliar with Conley's love of bowling, allow me to present this video:


Now, I'm something of a bowler myself. I own my own ball, bag and shoes -- you know, the whole bit. So I'm going to do something that can only be described as incredibly foolish. That's right! I'm calling you out Mike Conley! You name the time and the place, and I'll take you down a pin or two. Yeah, you might be a professional athlete, but I've been hanging out in stinky, smoke-filled bowling alleys since.....well, never actually. You see, the place I frequent is non-smoking and actually smells quite pleasant. But they do serve beer, so it still has that bowling alley feel to it. Well, that is, unless there is a kid's birthday party going on or something. Or if they decide to break out the midnight bowling black lights, even though it is the middle of the day and there is sunlight streaming in from the doors. But other than that, it is totally hardcore!

So I'm throwing down the gauntlet -- or dorky wrist guard thingy that bowlers wear, as it were. Are you man enough to step up MC? Or are you gonna duck my challenge and put one in the gutter? Just so you know -- I've been practicing this shot:

Ok, let's talk about team photos

By now, you have undoubtedly seen the picture and heard the outrage and indignation caused when the Spanish men's national basketball team took a picture for an advertisement in the Spanish newspaper La Marca. Because Marc Gasol is a member of the Memphis Grizzlies (and Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro are former Grizzlies), I feel compelled to mention it, but at this point, I'm not sure what else there is to say. No matter what the intent was at the time, I think that we can all agree that it was a dumb, ill-conceived idea that should have been stopped by any number of people along the way. The team and the courier company for whom the ad was created should apologize, rather than offering a feeble defense about their true intention of it being a friendly wink to their Asian counterparts -- whether or not they truly believe an apology is in order. That way we can all move on from it and the P.C. Police can go find something else to set their sights on. I think most of my own thoughts are echoed in Henry Abbott's take on the matter, so be sure to check that piece out.

Trade Talk

Since the Josh Smith offer sheet was matched by the Atlanta Hawks, it seems that most of the talk surrounding the Grizzlies making another acquisition this offseason has centered on potential trades. Plenty of names have been bandied about on the Grizzlies Fan Boards and on websites/news papers around the country. Let's take a look at who has already been mentioned and find a few more that might prove to be interesting.

Zach Randolph for Darko Milicic/??? - Ron Tillery mentioned him in a brief, one-line comment after the Hawks matched the offer sheet. It caused quite a stir among Grizzlies and Knicks fans when they saw it, but now that comment has been removed from the online piece where it originally appeared (which is why I don't see the point in linking to it).

My thoughts on Z-Bo are quite simple. He's a talented PF and he's a knucklehead. Yes, he puts up good stats, but he doesn't play well in a team concept, plays no defense and is a certifiable black hole on offense. He's a cancer -- and I don't throw that term around loosely. On top of all that, he has the exact same contract that Pau Gasol has, which the organization and its fanbase were so eager to get rid of. He's a glorified role player with a max-level contract, which means that the Grizzlies shouldn't consider him for any reason.

Matt Harpring/Jarron Collins for Darko Milicic - This one popped up in the Salt Lake Tribune column that we linked to earlier in the week, as Steve Luhm answered a reader's question about Darko's ability to fit in with the Jazz. This isn't even a real rumor, as Luhm even labels it a "hypothetical trade" in the column, but it is interesting. On the one hand, Harpring does give the Grizzlies that veteran backup SF that they desperately need behind Rudy Gay. On the other, Jarron Collins is known as "Collins the Lesser" among my circle of NBA friends. That's right, he's not even as good as his brother, Jason, who we fans had the pleasure of seeing last year. Not to mention that this would thrust Marc Gasol directly into the starting lineup when we don't have a clue as to how well he's going to adjust to the NBA. I don't have a problem with taking a calculated risk (Rudy for Shane, Mayo for Love, Miller for Gooden), but this seems to be a needless chance to take just to acquire a SF who will probably only be needed for 10-13 mpg this year. I think that Darko has more value than this trade.

Keith Bogans/Draft Pick for Javaris Crittenton - I've had a lot of back and forth with an Orlando Magic fan about this trade rumor. I think that it could be a win-win for both teams, but it all hinges on the draft pick. I don't think that a 2nd rounder is enough for Memphis to do the deal, but a protected 1st rounder probably would. I like Keith Bogans game a lot. He's a solid defender who can play the SG and SF positions off the bench. He's only 28, which means that he could still fit into the Three Year Plan if they re-sign him beyond the current deal. I'd much rather send them Kyle Lowry (PG only) in this deal than JCritt (combo guard capable), but getting another 1st rounder and thinning out the "young guard" group would probably prove to be worthwhile.

Al Harrington/Marco Belinelli for Antoine Walker/Hakim Warrick/Kyle Lowry - A Warriors fan who was high on Hak/Lowry sent this one to me the other day. Ummm....where do I sign? I'm not a huge fan of Harrington's SF game at the PF spot, but he has the same price tag as Walker for this year and twice the production. Belinelli (Summer League All-Star!) would be solid as a backup SG and might actually get some playing time in Memphis -- something he hasn't gotten much of in Oakland. They are both in the last year of their current contracts, so if they don't work out, then you don't have to keep them. Honestly, this deal feels like something you should have to wear a ski mask to pull off.

Reggie Evans/Willie Green for Hakim Warrick/Javaris Crittenton/Greg Buckner - The Grizzlies get a proven frontcourt presence in Evans, while the Sixers get some instant offense off the bench behind Elton Brand in Hak. Willie Green is a solid guard off the bench who started for Philly much of last year. Critt and Buckner would be quality depth for a team that has dreams of winning the Eastern Conference next year. Evans (28) and Green (27) are both young enough to qualify for the Three Year Plan, too.

Those are the ones that I'm aware of at the moment, although I'm hearing rumblings of Andrei Kirilenko being available, too. AK-47 is a tremendous talent and was always better as a PF than the SF role he has assumed since the arrival of Boozer/Okur. But, he also has the same max contract that Gasol and Randolph have, which means that it would be counter-productive to trade for him at this juncture. That's really too bad, since the combination of him with Darko/Marc in the frontcourt backing up Conley/Mayo/Lowry in the backcourt would display a fearsome level of defense. C'est la vie.

Be sure to either email us any rumors that you've heard of recently or just leave them in the comments.

Links: Offseason Rolls Along

Great interview with Marc Gasol as he prepared to kick off the Olympics. I've really been impressed with his defensive ability so far and hope that he can be a solid contributor for the Grizzlies.

Be sure to read HoopsAddict.com's interview with Josh Smith in the aftermath of Atlanta matching the offer sheet he signed with the Grizzlies. He talks about why he was interested in coming to Memphis and was willing to sign with them.

Floor Burn Tournament: Round Two: Even though Kyle Lowry came up short against Mark "Mad Dog" Madsen last week, there are still a lot of interesting matchups to vote on, so go over there and click away.

Salt Lake Tribune: Utah fans are gauging interest in acquiring Darko Milicic as a backup center.

Memphis Flyer: Frank Murtaugh links Elvis songs to Memphis sports in honor of Elvis week here in Memphis.

Over on HoopsWorld, Steve Kyler continues to ride the Backtrack Express in the wake of his poorly conceived column from last week. Somebody please tell him to just leave it alone already. What's done is done. I'd hate to for hem to have to let Chris Herrington out of his cage again to deal with him. That could get ugly quick.

Courant.com: Rudy Gay spends time in Conneticut at Jim Calhoun's basketball camp and talks about life in the NBA. He also won the MVP of the charity game.

Stay tuned for a few announcements about some changes coming to the blog later this week.

How Did The Josh Smith Signing Fit Into the 3 Year Plan?

A lot has been made lately about the team not really having a three year plan and that the whole thing is just a smokescreen to cover the fact that the team is cutting costs.

That is a very narrow view of what the 3 year plan is in my mind. There has never been a statement that the team will not make moves while working within the framework of the three year plan. The Josh Smith signing was just an attempt to make a move.

Heisley said on April 4th that he was willing to spend money right now if he could acquire a star talent but that player had to fit within the framework of the three year plan. Heisley wants a team that matures at the same time.

Josh Smith, at only 23 years old, obviously fit that mold.

Heisley also said that he is not willing to spend a ton of money for a player that isn't of star quality. This could be interpreted to mean that the only other player the Grizzlies may get involved with in free agency would be Andre Iquodala but AI doesn't fill a need on the team assuming Mayo is going to play SG for the Grizzlies as it appears he will.

So the Josh Smith signing fits perfectly in the 3 year plan. It is unfortunate that he won't be playing for the Grizzlies next season but that doesn't mean the plan is to be forgotten either. The Grizzlies are building for the future and looking for a myriad of players who could fit the bill. The Grizzlies aren't looking for veterans who will be too old to contribute when the Grizzlies are moving from playoff contender to Championship contender.

If there is one thing the Josh Smith signing should do is put to bed the ridiculous assumption that the Grizzlies are unwilling to spend money to improve the team. The 'smokescreen' excuse promoted by a local radio personality should exposed now for the over-reaction it was. Yes Heisley has hired a replacement for Jerry West for a lot less money. Yes he replaced Andy Dolich for a less money too. Yes he has scaled back operations. That doesn't mean he is not going to spend money on the Grizzlies.

Michael Heisley is now and has been willing to spend money to improve the team. He is unwilling to continue to have the most expensive front office in the league on a team that couldn't win a playoff team existing in one of the smallest markets in the league. That isn't cheap. That is good business and the NBA is still a business.

I am disappointed that the Grizzlies signed Josh Smith since forcing him to sign the Qualifying Offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer would have given the team a better opportunity to sign him in my opinion but I understand the rational behind making the offer as well. I didn't expect it and I disagree with it but I do understand it.

The signing does not mean the 3 year plan is dead or a sham. It just showed that the plan is flexible enough to take chances. Sometimes they pay off. Sometimes they don't.

Talking with Eric Musselman

Eric Musselman was rumored to be high on the Grizzlies list when searching for a Head Coach to replace Hubie Brown. After the team went with Mike Fratello instead the Grizzlies were quick to make sure they kept Musselman on their radar naming him Assistant Coach. Eric patroled the sidelines for two seasons in Memphis before accepting the Head Coaching position at Sacramento. Recently, he has started the Eric Mussleman's Basketball Notebook which is quickly becoming a must read for basketball enthusiasts like the guys at 3 Shades of Blue. After some conversations on some of his blogs Eric was kind enough to do an interview via e-mail with the us.

3SOB: You have been out of the public eye since leaving Sacramento . What are you doing these days?
MUSS: Since Sacramento, I've been visiting a lot with coaches at all levels of the game. I went to Lawrence and spent almost a week with Bill Self at KU. I also spent time with Larry Eustachy at Southern Miss and Derek Thomas at Western Illinois (now Detroit Mercy). All of them are terrific coaches and I enjoyed picking their brains.

I also attended John Calipari and Larry Brown's coaches retreat in Tunica, Mississippi, and went to a few dozen college games around the Bay Area, from Cal to Stanford to St. Mary's, to USF and Santa Clara. I even coached a high school all-star game here in the Bay Area.

And this summer, I went to Athens, Greece, to speak to about 400 Greek coaches as part of a big coaching clinic over there that ran alongside the FIBA Olympic tourney. Great experience, especially since my older son was with me.

3SOB: One of the blogs you wrote on your site titled Does Screaming at the Refs Really Help a Team mentions that you believe that the refs usually get calls correct. However it has been a feeling of mine that a well timed Technical Foul call can often change the direction of a game both by making refs aware of a perceived inequity in calls and also to motivate your team. How does that correlate to your blog?
MUSS: You're right on. A well-timed tech can change the tempo of a game and bring a sense of urgency to your team. I really agree with that.

3SOB: Can you give me an example of when taking a technical helped your team?
MUSS: I think it was my 99th game as an NBA head coach with the Warriors. We had a game at Denver against the Nuggets where we were behind by a large margin , Our guys were playing as if we were tired, so I purposefully got thrown out. This got the team going. They really responded to a new voice in Tom Sterner, one of our assistants. We came back and almost won the game. The story would be better if we’d won, but I couldn't have been happier for the effort the team put out and the job Tom did. What I didn’t like was the fine I got from the league for getting tossed.


3SOB: Another one of your blogs was titled The Role of Your Team's Leaders in a "Team Meeting". You mentioned Shane Battier as a great leader on the court. Do you believe that Memphis ʼ problems of late have to do with a lack of on court leadership on the team?
MUSS: I don't know the inner workings of the Grizz as many of the players who were there when I was an assistant there have changed teams, as so often happens in the NBA. But as with most young rosters, leadership develops over time and it develops organically. That is, some guys naturally step up and fill that role. If they don't, the team usually has problems.

3SOB: Do you prefer an on-court leader to a vocal leader or does a team need both?
MUSS: I think a team needs both types of leaders. It helps if your best players are also your leaders, like Tim Duncan in San Antonio and Tom Brady in New England. When your best players practice and play hard and really compete, it makes everything easier.

3SOB: How is Shane Battier a great team leader? Is he more of a leader by example or is he a vocal leader?
MUSS: Shaneʼs a great leader in so many ways. First, he leads by example, by the way he plays between the lines, how he interacts off the floor in the locker room and how he lives his life away from the game.

Heʼs always on time, pays attention to every game plan and executes game plan, is a positive person, and does all the little things to make your club function as a team. He can also lead vocally when the time is right or when itʼs needed, whether in practice, in a huddle, or on the floor during a game.

3SOB: Leadership, even with Shane Battier on the team, seemed to be a trouble spot for the Grizzlies when you were coaching (Jason Williamsʼ apparent dislike of Pau Gasol and Bonzi Wellʼs displeasure with playing time being examples). What was really happening behind the scenes at that time? Was the team as dysfunctional as it appeared at times?
MUSS: A team's chemistry is a complex thing. Personalities, likes and dislikes, etc. It's like any group that works together, whether it's a Boy Scout troop or a department within a big company, it's always a challenge to manage a group of people.

But ups and downs aside, the bottom line is that Memphis team won games. They reached the playoffs and it's tough to reach the postseason in the NBA.

3SOB: Mike Fratello left Memphis under a shroud of unsatisfied fans and unhappy players. What was it like coaching with Mike Fratello and were those criticisms justified?
MUSS: It's always a balancing act between playing the young guys and trying to be competitive and win games. Coach Fratello can coach uptempo. In fact, his Hawks teams in the '80s really played at a fast pace. I think they averaged close to 110 ppg with Nique, Doc Rivers, Spud, Kevin Willis and those guys.

3SOB: Jerry West has been getting some terrible press in Memphis lately including a blurb about him storming out of the draft room after Gerald Green getting drafted leaving Tom Penn to make the selection of Hakim Warrick. Did that really happen and what was it like working with Jerry?
MUSS: I genuinely loved working for Jerry West. He's a great competitor and has a high desire to win. I learned a great deal from him and he was nice enough to help me with the Kings job. He's always willing to help. I consider him a mentor and someone I can always go to for good advice. He's a pro and he's been around the game forever.

3SOB: You had some success in both stints as head coach and as an assistant coach. Do you plan on getting back on the bench in the NBA someday?
MUSS: Yes, I definitely want to coach again. It's my career, it's something I've chosen to do, but it's also something I really love. At the same time, I've enjoyed this past year, talking with other coaches, learning about the game, watching the game from a different perspective, and spending time with my sons. The last 12 months have been great.


3SOB: What do you think about the Grizzlies point guards. Do any of them show the potential to be ʽa perfect point guardʼ in your opinion?
MUSS: Well, Mike Conley has a bright future. He's developing and could be a good leader I think.

I love Kyle Lowry's toughness. Players really seem to respect him. I think he's a solid back-up who can lead by example. Guys will follow his lead and play hard. That's important, but sometimes gets overlooked or downplayed.

OJ Mayo's a nice combo guard and Jaric is really a 2-guard who can play some point, though he's not a vocal type leader.

3SOB: Do you believe winning is enough in the NBA today? Since it is a business does showmanship and flair mean as much as your record?
MUSS: Ultimately, winning is the most important thing not only in pro sports, but at most levels of sports. Itʼs how youʼre evaluated. I don't care how nice a guy a coach is, even at the high school level, if he loses all of his games, he's not going to be around long.

The object of any competition is to win. Period.

Talking with Eric via e-mail is interesting because the man has such a wealth of knowledge about the game. Eric also wanted me to mention that he loved living in Memphis. There were lots of great people and he is thnkful for his time here in Memphis. Eric has been rumored to be looking for a college coaching position but I hope he returns to the NBA some day. One thing is for sure, Musselman is a teacher of the game.

Pacifiying the Fan Base

Out of nowhere Friday, the Memphis Grizzlies signed the most dynamic player on the free agent market to a 5 year/$58 million offer sheet that was immediately matched by his hometown Atlanta Hawks. Josh Smith was the prototype for the power forward position in the offense that Iavaroni wants to run.

The funny thing is that I don't think I read a single account by a Grizzlies fan that actually thought that Atlanta would not match that offer sheet because it was reasonable. So why would Chris Wallace and Michael Heisley even waste their time with the offer? Why wouldn't they do like Philly and trade some of their young talent to clear out cap space to make an offer to Smith that Atlanta would not match? IMO it is because Memphis finally has a GM that knows what he is doing.

The Memphis Grizzlies are on The Three Year Plan (3YP) for better or worse. The first year of this plan is going to be real painful. I am not sure most fans have a realistic concept of the type of frustration they will experience this season. As such, the pressure to "do something" will be hard and heavy once the 2009 NBA trade deadline approaches and the Grizzlies are in dead last in the Western Conference. So Wallace (and Heisley) need to buy time. And that is just what the Josh Smith offer sheet did for them.

Why waste their time with the offer to Josh Smith? Why not? Josh Smith would have been a great fit for the Grizzlies long term and his talent would have mitigated the lost draft position that they would have missed on with the better record. He actually would have allowed the Grizzlies to potentially complete their future starting lineup a year in advance and thus accelerating the 3YP into a two year plan.

Why not make moves to sign Josh Smith to an offer sheet that Atlanta would not match? Although I have previously advocated making an inflated offer to Josh Smith because I think his future production will justify the salary, the Grizzlies just could not do so with their current roster. If the Grizzlies pay Josh Smith based on what they project his production to be in the future, what do they do next summer when Rudy Gay comes up for an extension? The Josh Smith offer sheet establishes the Grizzlies as a market level contract giver. Giving Smith an inflated deal would have painted them in the corner of giving Gay a near maximum extension even if he just reproduced this past season's production. That is a bad precedent to set.

So in the end the Josh Smith saga was a one day break from the offseason hibernation that the organization is experiencing. It came out of nowhere but it does reveal the motivations behind the 3YP. The Grizzlies are on the lookout for an impact player at power forward. Also, there will likely be no rumors of what the Grizzlies plan on doing until it is essentially a done deal. Sucks for us bloggers and message board folks but is good business for the Grizzlies.

Josh Smith Signed the Offer Sheet

According to Chris Wallace, Josh Smith officially signed the offer sheet on Friday before 6:00 PM.

Atlanta matched immediately.

This does show the Grizzlies, once again, are willing to take chances. Nothing great comes to those that wait. These are not your old Jerry West Grizzlies who would promise great things and deliver nothing. Under Chris Wallace's leadership Memphis has signed Darko Milicic, traded for Juan Carlos Navarro, traded Pau Gasol, traded Mike Miller and draft pick Kevin Love and now signed Josh Smith.

Not a bad 14 months on the job as far as shaking things up on the Grizzlies even if Atlanta does in fact match the offer.

3 Shades of Blue hopes to have an interview with GM Chris Wallace over the weekend so keep checking back.

Celebration Day! Griz Sign Josh Smith...or Offer Contract to Smith? Either Way, Grizz Brass Come to their Senses

UPDATE II:

The great Ron Tillery is now reporting that the offer sheet has yet to be signed and might not be signed until tomorrow morning.

Sheesh, can anyone get something straight. Tillery's earlier piece had the feeling of him not knowing what the hell he was talking about in it. Then the AJC piece seemed to fill in the blanks and make it all legit. Now this.

Tillery also says that Atlanta is prepared to offer more than the Grizzlies. A 6 year deal. Why would they not just match our deal? Is that extra year worth it? Tillery called it a bidding war. Has a team with restricted rights on a player ever got into a bidding war before? That doesn't make sense either.

Oh ya, the sham site Hoopsworld says Atlanta will match.

At this point, I don't care what happens. Tillery says we have been debating signing Josh Smith for 3 weeks, which makes me happy. And makes me feel pretty smart too...hehehe...ok, enough gloating over this.

Please Atlanta, let us have our future PF.......stay tuned for more....

UPDATE I:

The Atlanta Journal Constitution is reporting the offer sheet is signed. The waiting game now begins. It will probably by 7 days before we know anything (IMO).

Herrington thinks the sign/trade route makes the most sense. Can't say I disagree.

Gay/Mayo/Smith....watch out...

EDIT...

I interrupt this Josh Smith Celebration for a second.

It has been brought to my attention that the Ron Tillery article is confusing. At first it says we sent a contract offer to Josh Smith. Has he signed it? Will he sign it? Why is Ron Tillery so vague? I don't have these answers.

But later on, Tillery says the Hawks have 7 days to match. Which implies it has been signed.

Why is Tillery so vague? Has Smith signed the contract yet? We need answers. Which means we need Herrington.....

Below is my original post
---------------------------------

I am in disbelief. That THUD you heard was half of Memphis falling out of their chairs at work.

Ron Tillery is reporting that the Grizzlies have [EDIT] sent a contract offer[/EDIT] to Josh Smith for 5 years, 58 Million Dollars. The Hawks have 7 days to match [EDIT] if Smith signs it.[/EDIT]

This deserves more of these:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So much for saving our cap space for next season.

Actually, we will still have cap space next season even with Josh Smith. About 9 million if my calculations are right. As for this contract, it looks like this, again by my calculation.

Year 1: 9.9 Million
Year 2: 10.69 Million
Year 3: 11.54 Million
Year 4: 12.46 Million
Year 5: 13.46 Million

Those numbers are rounded.

Anyway, I don't know what to say, except for more screaming.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Josh Smith, if he doesn't get matched, will be our starting PF. Many, even a pair of disbelievers on this site, don't think Smith can play PF.

Hogwash, I say. He will be the perfect PF for our team. He is athletic. He can play great defense, in the post, but also on the perimeter. He is the NBA's premier perimeter shot blocker. He will lead our team in rebounds, steals and blocks. Oh, and dunks. He can't shoot a lick from the outside, but who cares.

From my perspective, this fits perfectly with the 3YP. I know about 60% of the Griz fan base disagrees with that. How do I know that? Because Josh Smith has been the sole topic of conversation on Griz Messageboards for about 2 months now.

I wanted us to trade Pau for Smith. So, naturally signing him with cap space created from trading Pau makes me ecstatic.

It seems Heisley and Wallace finally came to their senses and made the move that was obvious from the beginning.

Will the Hawks match? I have no idea.

Could this turn into a sign/trade? Maybe.

For the 60% of the fanbase that believed Heisley was telling the truth about not spending any money this summer, I'm sorry, but you have to believe me that this is for the best.

We will be back later with updates and everyone else's take....for now, you get more of these:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Celebration Day, Memphis....rejoice!!!

Drink a beer for lunch.....Go dance around the office.....Call into Verno at 3 and just start screaming....It's Friday, we signed Josh Smith and things could get no better (except, maybe if I had this paper already written, which makes this news not the best timing, but who cares....celebrate!!!!)

Can Memphis Survive a 3 Year Plan?

There will always be a part, and always a very large part of every community, that have no care but for themselves, and whose care for themselves reaches little further than impatience of immediate pain, and eagerness for the nearest good.
- Samuel Johnson

That's a depressing perspective on society.

At first I thought I disagreed with this position but as I thought it over I came to realize the truth in the statement. The large majority in a community choose to sit on the sidelines and demand that others do their best rather than joining in the battle themselves. They want instant gratification and have zero tolerance for any sacrifice.

In many ways that describes the problem with the Grizzlies in Memphis. So many fans demand immediate gratification to earn their loyalty but that loyalty will only exist as long as the team continues to gratify. They have no patience for the inevitable pain that comes with rebuilding. These members in the community want instant moves, instant wins and instant gains. Anything less and they turn their backs on the team.

This is very different from other parts of the world. Take football (soccer) fans in England. Most people in Memphis have heard of Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool. More than a few hear the word Arsenal and don't immediately think of their gun rack. These are traditional powerhouses of the English Premiership. They have a world-wide support. However the league would fail if those were the only teams that fans supported. The Premiership has Wigham, West Ham and Fulham also. These teams have loyal fans that pull for their teams even when the odds are hopelessly against them ever competing for the championship.

Of course international sports have a much different reason for being supported locally. Failure to succeed at the basest level could have your team relegated out of the top league. Could you imagine that happening in the USA? Sorry Miami. You had the worst record in the league last year. Next year you are in the NBDL and the Iowa NBDL team is taking your place in the NBA! The Kansas City Royals would be out of the major leagues and playing AAA ball next summer.

So three year plans to return to competitiveness don't work too well in English Football. With relegation comes far less revenue and the good/expensive players are shipped out immediately to other Premiership teams and replaced with younger, cheaper alternatives. Teams can return in a year but they inevitably spend their anticipated largess from the Premiership promotion on more experienced players in an attempt to avoid relegation again.

This doesn't happen in the NBA. Teams are not relegated to lesser leagues for on-court failure. Teams can attempt to rebuild for longer term success. That is what the Grizzlies say they are attempting to do this year. With a team full of players barely out of college (4 players aren't even old enough to drink yet) the Grizzlies are attempting to build a team that can be successful for a long time. Combining a large number of draft picks with expiring contract veterans allows the Grizzlies to put together a core of the team that will mature together. The Grizzlies want a dynasty type of development not a Miami Heat/Boston Celtics two year run.

Will this community support the team enough to see the fruits of these efforts? Memphis is a small market and if the majority of people have no care but for themselves and their immediate gratification then what hope is there for the team to survive. Memphis doesn't have a large population to absorb the fallout of the disinterested majority. Is the so called three year plan a smart one in the River City?

There are numerous factors that contribute to attendance numbers but there are two prime factors. First is the success of the team. The more successful, in general, the better the attendance. The second impact is the longevity of the franchise. The more entrenched the franchise is in the community the better the attendance. Fans grow up going to games with their parent and continue to go as adults with their children. Outside of these two factors their is star power, competition from other events and more but the main two factors contribute the most to attendance.

Unfortunately Memphis has neither factor in their favor currently. They are not winning, don't have a great expectation of winning soon and have not been in the community long enough to have a large core of fans. The one factor that binds the team to Memphis right now is a contract. That is never a good sign for franchise stability.

In the NBA alone there have been three franchises relocated in the last 9 years and another that will move shortly (New Jersey to Brooklyn). That means over the last decade a team has moved every 3 years or so. Coincidentally Memphis' owner has put the team on a 3 year plan for success.

Teams move for financial considerations. The only way to minimize the risk of a small market losing its team these days is to make it financially unprofitable to do so. That means fans have to come to games to make the franchise more profitable. The theory that the fans are owed a winning product simply doesn't mean what it used to. If people have learned anything from the recent moves it is that owners of NBA teams will follow the money to wherever they can find it. Owners don't want to move franchises but they also don't want to lose money.

The good news is that the contract with the city is iron tight right now and lasts for more than three years. Hopefully the franchise will become successful over the next three years so that fans will want to come to games to see the team play. It is highly unlikely that anyone would move the team while the franchise has such a heavy penalty hanging over its head. However as the contract becomes less punitive the likelihood would rise if attendance isn't improved.

Fans follow winners but franchises don't always win. The Grizzlies need to engage the indifferent majority before it is too late. Winning is the simplest measure to do that. Playing exciting basketball is another. Memphis needs to do both soon.

2008/2009 Schedule or Stu Jackson Strikes Again!

Well, the NBA released the 2008/2009 schedule yesterday. You can view the Grizzlies schedule in its entirety right here. I'm not gonna lie to you -- this year's schedule is best described as tough. Taking a note from something we did on the Grizzlies Fan Boards, I'm going to look at the season in 7-game increments, just like if it was set up into playoff series.

Set 1
Oct 29 (Wed) @ Houston
Oct 31 (Fri) vs Orlando
Nov 01 (Sat) @ Chicago
Nov 03 (Mon) vs Golden State
Nov 05 (Wed) @ Sacramento
Nov 07 (Fri) @ Golden State
Nov 09 (Sun) @ Denver

That's 3 games against playoff teams, 2 games against a team that just missed the playoffs in the West, 1 game against a team that should have made the playoffs and 1 game against the rebuilding Kings. Yikes! Not to mention that only 2 of the 7 are at home. Only one back-to-back though, so that's a positive.

Set 2
Nov 10 (Mon) @ Phoenix
Nov 12 (Wed) vs New York
Nov 14 (Fri) vs Milwaukee
Nov 18 (Tue) vs Sacramento
Nov 21 (Fri) @ Dallas
Nov 22 (Sat) vs Utah
Nov 24 (Mon) vs San Antonio

Start off with the second game of a back-to-back against the Suns, but then play 3 very winnable home games before a tough back-to-back against the Mavs and Jazz, and then finishing up against the methodically deadly Spurs. The home/away situation flips to 5-2 for this set, which should help.

Set 3
Nov 26 (Wed) @ Utah
Nov 28 (Fri) @ San Antonio
Nov 29 (Sat) vs Oklahoma City
Dec 03 (Wed) @ Atlanta
Dec 05 (Fri) vs LA Clippers
Dec 06 (Sat) @ New Orleans
Dec 08 (Mon) vs Houston

Starting off on the road against the Jazz and Spurs is not exactly what I was looking for as a Thanksgiving bonus. But the next two are eminently winnable against the young, raw roster from OKC (when are they gonna get a new name already?) and the turmoil that is the Hawks. I'm still not sure what to make of the Clippers, but their proposed frontcourt of Kaman/Camby/Thornton is sure to be trouble for Memphis. Then they finish it off with talented division foes in the Hornets and Rockets. That is a tough stretch of games, with two more back-to-backs thrown in for good measure.

Set 4
Dec 10 (Wed) @ Oklahoma City
Dec 12 (Fri) vs Chicago
Dec 14 (Sun) vs Miami
Dec 16 (Tue) vs New Orleans
Dec 19 (Fri) vs Charlotte
Dec 22 (Mon) vs LA Lakers
Dec 23 (Tue) @ Dallas

Five straight home games sandwiched by two road games is a nice treat. Playing in OKC will be difficult, as they have proven to be a very boisterous group. Then 3 of the next 4 against the Bulls, Heat and Bobcats should be winnable though. The Hornets, Lakers and Mavs will be tough, although I expect the return of Pau to provide the crowd with some extra energy. Just one back-to-back (with travel), but against two very serious opponents.

Set 5
Dec 26 (Fri) vs Indiana
Dec 27 (Sat) @ San Antonio
Dec 29 (Mon) @ Minnesota
Dec 30 (Tue) vs Phoenix
Jan 02 (Fri) vs San Antonio
Jan 04 (Sun) vs Dallas
Jan 06 (Tue) vs Minnesota

Nothing like coming off the Christmas holiday to face 4 games in 5 days. Sheesh! Two of those four should be winnable, with the Pacers and T'Wolves in the viewfinder. Then they have two more games against divisional foes in the Spurs and Mavs before a 2nd game against the evenly talented squad from up north that sees Mike Miller return to Memphis. Oh yeah, they'll be bringing Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins with them too.

Set 6
Jan 07 (Wed) @ New Jersey
Jan 09 (Fri) @ Toronto
Jan 13 (Tue) vs Cleveland
Jan 16 (Fri) vs Utah
Jan 19 (Mon) vs Detroit
Jan 21 (Wed) @ Charlotte
Jan 23 (Fri) @ New York

Start off with the second game of a back-to-back by traveling to the swamps of New Jersey in what should be a winnable game. The next 4 games don't look too promising though, as they face playoff teams in every one of them, including the Pistons in the MLK Day game, the Grizzlies only appearance on national television. They do get a bit of a reprieve in facing the Bobcats and rebuilding Knicks to finish it off, though.

Set 7
Jan 24 (Sat) vs New Jersey
Jan 27 (Tue) vs Denver
Jan 28 (Wed) @ Oklahoma City
Jan 31 (Sat) vs LA Lakers
Feb 02 (Mon) @ Washington
Feb 04 (Wed) vs Houston
Feb 06 (Fri) vs LA Clippers

They return from NYC to complete a back-to-back against the Nets to get thing started in this set. While Denver is certainly a question mark, they are still a dangerous team. Then they return to the raucous crowd in OKC to complete another back-to-back in what is sure to be a difficult game. The next three are against playoff caliber teams before finishing it off against the mercurial Clip Joint. Another set where 5 of the 7 games are at home, which should help as they head towards the All-Star break.

Set 8
Feb 07 (Sat) vs Toronto
Feb 09 (Mon) vs New Orleans
Feb 11 (Wed) @ Philadelphia
All-Star Break
Feb 17 (Tue) @ Utah
Feb 18 (Wed) @ Portland
Feb 20 (Fri) vs Sacramento
Feb 24 (Tue) @ Cleveland

Although the All-Star break should provide a welcome rest to most of our players, the simple fact is that 6 of these 7 games are against probable playoff teams this year (if Portland makes the leap that everyone is expecting), which is an unfortunate reality.

Set 9
Feb 25 (Wed) @ Indiana
Feb 28 (Sat) vs Oklahoma City
Mar 03 (Tue) @ LA Lakers
Mar 04 (Wed) @ LA Clippers
Mar 07 (Sat) vs Philadelphia
Mar 08 (Sun) @ Houston
Mar 11 (Wed) @ Minnesota

Counting the game against the Pacers as one, this set has 3 back-to-backs in it. That's just brutal, no matter how you slice it. The only positive to take from that is that 4 of the 7 games should be seen as winnable. Unfortunately, only one of those 4 is at home.

Set 10
Mar 13 (Fri) @ Boston
Mar 15 (Sun) @ Detroit
Mar 16 (Mon) vs Portland
Mar 18 (Wed) vs Denver
Mar 20 (Fri) @ New Orleans
Mar 21 (Sat) vs Boston
Mar 23 (Mon) @ Miami

Any time a set includes 3 games against the two teams from last year's Eastern Conference Finals, you know that you're in for some punishment. Throw in games against Portland, Denver and New Orleans and it looks downright bleak. When you start looking forward to facing a team with two All-Stars and one of the best collegiate players of recent history when Miami shows up on the schedule, you know it's been a rough patch. Having only 4 games in the month of March will do that to you.

Set 11
Mar 27 (Fri) @ Sacramento
Mar 28 (Sat) @ Portland
Mar 30 (Mon) @ Golden State
Apr 01 (Wed) vs Washington
Apr 03 (Fri) vs Dallas
Apr 04 (Sat) @ Milwaukee
Apr 07 (Tue) vs Portland

Nothing like a West Coast road trip with a back-to-back to finish off the dreadful month of March. Throw in another 3 games against likely playoff teams and suddenly Milwaukee looks like a nice place to visit, despite what Gilbert Arenas says about it.

Set 12 (5 games)
Apr 08 (Wed) @ Orlando
Apr 10 (Fri) vs Phoenix
Apr 12 (Sun) @ LA Lakers
Apr 13 (Mon) @ Phoenix
Apr 15 (Wed) vs Atlanta

To finish off the season, they get 5 playoff teams from last year. Have I mentioned yet that Stu Jackson absolutely hates the Grizzlies? If nothing else, I have hope that they'll be able to beat the Hawks in the season finale at home.

So that's the schedule. I have heard some fans talk of the team winning 35 games this season. I'm as much of a fan as anyone, but if this team figures out how to win 13 games more than last season with that schedule, then I'll show up to next year's Tip-Off Luncheon looking like one of these guys:


I've also heard some people say that they won't even reach the 22 victories they have managed to win the past two seasons. While I'm not quite that pessimistic, with this schedule and the amount of young, inexperienced players on the roster, as well as the fact that there will be a substantial amount of shuffling to figure out the allotment of minutes for everyone, I could see that being an unfortunate reality. I think that somewhere between 20-26 wins is a realistic expectation at this point, but I'll be rooting for them to win every single game, just like every year.

Beale Street BluePrint

One of the most interesting things about the NBA for me is how much of an effect a truly elite player can have on a franchise. The NBA is the only professional league in which almost the entire fortune of a franchise can be driven by one player. My belief in The Superstar Theory was initially established after reading the wonderful article on 82games.com by Dennis Gallagher. A similar three part study was done on NBADraft.net by Robert W. McChesney (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). Both authors come to similar conclusions. Without a superstar player (All NBA 1st or 2nd team), an NBA team has virtually no chance at winning a championship.

McChesney identifies who he thinks are the truly elite talents in today's NBA that the Grizzlies will have to contend with when the 3YP is complete: LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudamire, Dwyane Wade, Deron Williams and Yao Ming. These are McChesney's Gold Medal superstars. I will add Greg Oden and Kevin Durant to that list. The big question for the Memphis Grizzlies is can Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo or Mike Conley make it it to Gold Medal superstar status. If they can't then it is implorable that they acquire one of the above nine players by any means possible. This is why the Mayo trade was a must do. Although Mike Miller and Kevin Love are good players (Love should be better than Miller), Mayo has a chance to reach superstar status. No amount of good players is worth passing up on a gold medal superstar.

McChesney makes this statement:

The moral of the story could not be clearer: Smart GMs, and smart fans, have to always be thinking about how their team can get a hold of a gold medal superstar, or, if it is the best you can do, a couple of silver medal superstars. It is the single most important issue before an NBA GM. Once you have your superstar(s), then your job is to surround him with the pieces to win a title, but that is a day at the beach compared to trying to get a gold or silver medal superstar in the first place.

If this is the foundation of the 3YP, then I am with it. If this is the reason why they did not actively pursue a free agent this summer, I am with it. There is no other philosophy I believe in about NBA team building more than The Superstar Theory. It is the reason why I was so fired up to go get Carmelo Anthony (just missed McChesney's cut). You win in the NBA with elite talents. It is not just about winning an NBA title, you need on of these elite players to even contend for an NBA title. Now I am sure there are a couple of examples that defy the rule but for the most part it has held true for the entirety of NBA history. As McChesney puts it:

On 40 of these 52 teams, the best player was one of the 21 gold medal superstars, the elite of the elite of the elite. In basketball, more than any other team sport, getting a player for the ages is essential for championships. Mere all-stars, even several of them, ain’t gonna get the job done. And 8 of the 11 champions that did not have a gold medal superstar leading it, had at least two players from this list on the team, in their primes, at least one of whom was silver-medal. (The exceptions? Rick Barry’s 75 Warriors, Elvin Hayes’s 78 Bullets, and Dennis Johnson’s 79 Sonics. These champions defeated teams in the finals that were similarly under armed; these were “down” years for the league. The late 70s was almost like a Bermuda Triangle for the NBA. Accordingly these are regarded as among the weaker champions in NBA history.)

It gets worse, or better, depending if your team has one of these guys. It is not just about winning titles; it is about getting within sniffing distance of winning titles. All but three of the losers in the NBA finals since 1956-57 have been led by one of these 80 superstars. (The exceptions? The 2000 Pacers, the 1978 Sonics and the 1971 Bullets.) So dig this: only 3 of the 104 teams that have played in the NBA finals were not led by a player on this list. Teams led by bronze medal superstars account for only 9 of these 104 teams, so even having one of them is hardly a winning ticket.

And over one-half of these runner-up teams in the NBA over the past 52 years have been led by gold medal superstars. That means 21 players have led 68 of the 104 teams that have played in the NBA finals since 1956-57. Considering how short Bill Walton’s effective career was, that really means 20 guys.

To put it in even more stark terms: the 28 finalist losers that were led by gold medal superstars lost to champions led by gold medal superstars 22 times. As a general rule, gold trumps silver and silver trumps bronze and nobody else is even allowed to play.

This is it in a nutshell. When teams are holding on to Shane Battiers, Mike Millers and Tayshaun Princes instead of going all in for one of the elite players, you know the GM does not know what he is doing. In fact, I will go a step father and state that the team building does not truly begin until you have at least a silver medal superstar in the fold. So when Heisley says:

If I get a superstar player, you know I said 3-5 years, hell I might be able to get there in 2 years. I might be willing to do what I said I wouldn't do and get an older player so everything changes depending on what the opportunity is.

I hope he is down with The Superstar Theory and not just blowing smoke. If you are a Grizz fan reading this then you already are aware of my skepticism of the 3 year plan. However, I have to ackowledge that there wasn't a single free agent available this offseason that qualifies as even a bronze medal superstar except for Gilbert Arenas and coming off an injury he got $100+ million. In 2009, there is only one potential Gold Medal Superstar that might even be available and that is Andrew Bynum and my guess is that the Lakers will MAX him out or match a maximum offer if they even allow it to get that far.

So as a Grizzlies fan, our hope lies in Chris Wallace acquiring a gold or silver medal superstar in trade or having on of our own develop into one. Anything else is just wheel spinning in the NBA.

Vote for Kyle Lowry!

Vote for Kyle Lowry in HoopsAddict.com's Floor Burn Tournament. He was our entry into this contest to determine who is the down-and-dirty grittiest player in the league who does all the little things that rarely result in credit. In the first round, he is up against Mark Madsen, so go vote for him in the matchup of Bulldog vs. Mad Dog.