Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Links: MVP/ROY Rankings, Rudy, New Coach, Rankings Report, Pranica, More Trade Fallout

Hardwood Paroxysm has Round 6 of the Blogger MVP/ROY Rankings up for your viewing pleasure. There are plenty of great comments, so be sure to head on over there.

USA Today's Oscar Dixon has a great column up about Rudy Gay with some great quotes from Rudy, Pau Gasol and Marc Iavaroni. They also provide this little nugget of information:

The 21-year-old leads the Grizzlies in scoring (19.9) and steals (1.5); he and Kobe Bryant are the only players in the NBA in the top 40 in dunks and three-pointers, according to Elias Sports Bureau.


That's an interesting stat, considering that many believe that Rudy's mid-range game is, in fact, his biggest strength right now. It appears that Rudy is developing into a very well-rounded player.

In a rare case of good news, Ron Tillery reports in today's Commercial Appeal that recent acquisition Aaron McKie is a player-coach in the truest sense.

McKie instantly gives the Griz someone who can instruct and relate to this generation of players, much like Damon Stoudamire did before he left for San Antonio. It's no coincidence that McKie took up residence in Stoudamire's old locker between second-year swingman Rudy Gay and rookie point guard Mike Conley.


That's something to consider a positive, as this team obviously needs some veteran leadership. Having McKie stick close to the two cornerstones of the franchise should benefit them in the long run.

Dime Magazine has followed suit with many recent power rankings in dropping the Grizzlies to the bottom of the barrel. Hard to blame them, given the current talent level of the team and the upcoming schedule.

Pete Pranica finds a silver lining that many others are looking to in the wake of the Gasol trade -- the resurrection of the New Orleans Hornets.

Tom Ziller (NBA Fanhouse) is tallying up the people that think Chris Wallace made a less-than-wise move in trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers......and the numbers keep piling up:

4. Chris Wallace's Christmas card list. First Gregg Popovich reamed Memphis for gift wrapping Pau Gasol for the Lakers. Next? Mark Cuban, of course, followed by Gilbert Arenas. I even heard John Salmons (John Salmons!) on radio ripping the deal.


Blog/Website of the Day: Rudy Gay All-Star Dunk Blog

BallHype: hype it up!

Memphis vs Sacramento - 2.12.08

SPECIAL DEAL! The Grizzlies are offering rebates for all ticket holders for the Milwaukee game last Tuesday that was affected by incliment weather. If you have a ticket from that game, used or unused, you can exchange it for seats of equal or lesser value depending on availability tonight. For more information follow this link.

Memphis has yet to come close to winning a game since the Gasol trade. Makes people kind of miss the days when the team was losing close games instead of being blown out. Still the Gasol trade had to be made. Now the team is in Rudy and Mike's hands and Rudy and the Grizzlies owe the Kings something after giving away the game in Sacramento. The team had the game in control before relaxing late and allowing the Kings back. Rudy Gay had a big game with 31 pts and 7 boards but dribbled the ball off his foot to seal the Grizzlies fate. Miller scored 18 and Navarro went for 10 but on 2-13 shooting. Milicic was just starting to assert himself with 7 pts and 6 boards but he has become a bigger player of late. Memphis will need to shoot well to have a chance however. The team's poor field goal shooting has more to do with the recent losses than any hangover from the Gasol trade.

Sacramento is not the same team the Grizzlies played on Jan. 10. Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Ron Artest are all back from injury and that brings veteran experience to the young squad. How long those veterans remain is another question all together. Bibby is supposed to be going to Cleveland and Artest to anyone who will take his attitude (which means the pickings are slim for his services). Since their return Sacramento has been playing much better. The team is 5-2 in their last 7 games and have wins over New Orleans and Utah in that stretch. Of course they also have a blowout loss to Seattle as well. Sacramento is going big with Mikki Moore and Brad Miller both starting with Artest, Bibby and Martin and breakout player John Salmons still produces well off the bench.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Mike Bibby
The once and future stars of the Grizzlies meet for the first time in this game. Bibby. the #2 pick for the Grizzlies in 1998, has been very solid since returning from his thumb injury. Conley. the #4 pick in the 2007 draft, has been as good as can be expected returning from his shoulder troubles. The two players couldn't be more different on the court. Bibby is considered a sharpshooter from long range with ice water in his veins in crunch time. Conley is a passer who can penetrate the lane, score with either hand or dish to an open man but has been sporadic with his outside shot. Conley's speed may give Bibby troubles but Bibby's physical style could create difficulties for Conley as well.
Advantage: Sacramento

Shooting Guards: Juan Carlos Navarro vs Kevin Martin

KMart is the Kings' leading scorer this season, averaging over 23 ppg and that is a problem for Navarro who has struggled with defending scorers but he has been improving. Since his return from injury KMart has been a little erratic as well scoring 5, 27 and 9 pts in his last three games. Navarro will need to make Martin respect him on the defensive end to prevent him from focusing all of his attention on the offensive end. Martin doesn't score as well when forced to play defense. Unfortunately Navarro has not been shooting well of late. In his last 5 games Navarro is shooting 26.1% from the floor and 20% from the arc.
Advantage: Sacramento

Small Forwards: Mike Miller vs Ron Artest

Mike Miller and Ron Artest have something in common. Neither player expects to be wearing thier team's uniform next season. In fact both don't expect to be wearing the same uniform after the trade deadline although it is likely both will. Artest is exactly the type of player who can take Miller completely out of his game. He is a physical defender who doesn't give an inch and Mike is the type of player who needs space to operate most efficiently. Artest has been putting up more points than usual this season as well as his recovery from injury has allowed him to be fresher than most of his opponents. Mike has been dragging lately as more weight is thrust on his shoulders to carry the team.
Advantage: Sacaramento

Power Forward: Rudy Gay vs Mikki Moore

Rudy Gay is not supposed to be as efficient at the power forward role as he was at the small forward but it would be difficult to prove on just appeareance. His scoring since Gasol was traded compared to before the trade is unchanged, his rebounding has improved to 8.6 rpg, his assists are up as well. His shooting percentage is down a bit but is still repectable as well. Mikki Moore is a physical monster who enjoyed playing the less physical Gasol in the paint. He may not be as effective with Gay spreading him all over the court. If Sacramento is able to get him the ball down low he may be able to manhandle Gay but that would be taking the ball out of Sacramento's shooters hands which has to be fine with the Grizzlies.
Advantage: Memphis

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Brad Miller

Brad Miller has range that will force Darko away from the basket, bulk to overpower Rudy if the team tries to put Darko on Moore and the passing ability to keep everyone involved on his team while still getting enough shots himself to average nearly 15 ppg. His 22 pt, 10 rebound and 5 assist game against Memphis earlier this season should attest to how difficult a player he is to contain. Darko has been playing much better of late. He has averaged 11 ppg and 10.6 rpg since the trade including 3 straight double doubles for the first time in his career. Unfortuantely that was the first three games without Gasol. Since that streak he has been held below double figures in rebounds. Really upsetting is that he failed against Dallas without Dampier and New Orleans without Chandler. Brad Miller is the real deal and Milicic has to improve his board play and keep scoring to neutralize Miller's game.
Advantage: Sacramento

Benches: Memphis vs Sacramento

Sacramento's bench has been greatly improved with the return of their big three. Beno Udrih performed well as a starter but his future is as a bench player at best. John Salmmons is scary coming off the bench but his performance isn't as good in that role. With Memphis going small with Gay at the four don't be surprised to see Sacramento match that with Arterst on Gay and Salmons on Miller. Francisco Garcia has hurt his back however so that will thin the Kings bench out somewhat. Memphis's bench has been horrible of late. Lowry hasn't scored in double figures in three games and only has 4 assists in the last two games while shooting 2-9 fomr the field and shooting 18 of 29 from the charity stripe and hitting only 1 three pt shotin the last 5 games while having 11 turnovers. And he is the best player Memphis is bringing off the bench. Javaris Crittenton looks promising if out of control. Hakim Warrick has lost his shooting touch which was all he brought to the game. It's gotten so bad Brian Cardinal has been seeing action and actually performing well in limited minutes. The Collins/Brown combo at center has been disappointing so far.
Advantage: Sacramento

Opposing Views:
Sactown Royalty

BallHype: hype it up!

Monday, February 11, 2008

Who's Running this Team?

Things are getting pretty weird in Dunkyland (or Memphis for those that don't remember that old ad campaign).

A trade was made that no one in the country can seem to make sense of. Certainly no one who was thinking about basketball instead of the bottom line.

Rumors are breaking out that Michael Heisley is calling the shots from forcing trades down the GM's throat to telling the coaches who they can play in games. Rumors swirl that Heisley nixed a potential trade for Damon Stoudamire, forcing the team to buy him out and allow him to play for a team of his choosing at the Grizzlies expense.

Heisley however is saying that Wallace and Iavaroni practically forced him to make the trade. He has no comment on the trade rumor. I doubt anyone has asked him about the playing rotation but there has definately been any comments about it.

What is really confusing is the discrepancies on who is making the decisions. The Commercial Appeal ran two articles the Sunday after the Gasol trade was announced. The headlines reflect the growing confusion over who is really making the decisions.
Grizzlies beat writer Ron Tillery's article was titled Heisley's 'the guy making decisions'. Geoff Calkins, the CA's award winning columnist, wrote an article with the headline 'Owner feels the pain over deal, too' but has this line early in the story:

Heisley had to be persuaded by Wallace and Iavaroni to make the deal. Not the other way around.


Wait a minutes here. So was Heisley persuaded to make the deal or was he in making the decisions? An owner signing off on a deal orchestarted by his GM and Head Coach isn't exactly making decisions is he? Wouldn't that be supporting the people you hired to make these decisions in doing their job?

Thus the confusion. Is Heisley putting his imprint into every decision made on the team or is he just remaining in the background and allowing his people to do their jobs?

Right now the few fans remaining in the stands have a right to know.

BallHype: hype it up!

Sunday, February 10, 2008

3SoB Sunday Chronicle 2.10.08

From Zack

Welcome to another Sunday Chronicle. I will review the previous week (hopefully wins, probably losses), preview the upcoming week (can I just go ahead say upcoming losses?), and the whole post is going to painted with lots of enticing blue links.

Conley and Crittenton talk on the bench. The two guards are both only 20 years old. Instead of playing their sophomore year in college, they are getting a crash course in NBA basketball one loss at a time. (Getty)

More On Pau and the Direction of the Team

The Pau trade is still reverberating around the Griz fanbase like a magnitude 8.0 earthquake. I would say half or more of the local fans are upset about the trade. And some of those fans wanted Pau traded!! What is causing such uproar is the combination of fans that a) didn't want Pau trade, b) thought we didn't get enough in return for Pau, and c) think Heisley is wrecking the franchise.

Although Heisley denied it in the CA, there are rumblings locally and nationally that Heisley is looking to cut cost as he either looks to make the franchise more attractive on the market or simply limit losses as the team struggles to win.

Should we be worried about Heisley cutting costs? Probably. With the departure of Andy Dolich, I'll go out on a limb and guess the business side of the Grizzlies front office is trimmed down significantly and currently not working very hard day-to-day. Is the basketball side of the front office and coaching staff being trimmed down too? Are we employing sufficient college scouts, NBA scouts, advance scouts, and coaching support staff? Those questions point towards issues that are more important in terms of the quality of the actual basketball product being on display than who are the business suits does. There are some rumors as to who will replace Andy Dolich, but I really don't care about that. I'm more concerned with the make-up and direction of the basketball roster.

Should we be worried that Heisley's cost cutting directives will dictate the roster be assembled on the cheap? Well, yes and no, really.

Of course we should be worried and skeptical of Heisley's direction (and influence) on the actual Grizzlies basketball players. However, it is my opinion that this team should likely be assembled on the cheap anyway. We are a small market team that is in the beginning of a rebuilding phase. It makes sense to keep the team at or below the salary cap limit by using a number of talented (ding, ding, we have our word of the day) young players. It is likely that next year our salary total may be well below the cap limit of ~58 million, although I do not believe that will be the norm. I think most years Chris Wallace will do his best to keep the total salary right at or slightly below the soft salary cap limit (like this year). That is probably the smart plan for our market. Not until the talented young guys we choose to build around take this team close to contention, should Chris Wallace (or Heisley, whoever you want to pretend is making decisions) let the total salary exceed the soft salary cap limit.

I am in agreement with Wallace that Pau needed to be traded. The current Griz salaries needed to be restructured with an eye more towards a future with younger, more talented players. Keeping Pau around was going to limit the flexibility to accomplish that.

This team was not going anywhere with Pau and his massive salary commitment as a part of the team. There would not be enough cap room or roster flexibility to bring in much extra talent. And make no mistake about it, this team needs a serious talent upgrade to eventually be serious competitors in the Western Conference. If we stayed pat with Pau, we could go into next year with another high draft pick added to the roster and probably still only marginally improve. We could also trade off some of our current role players for different role players and again maybe marginally get better. One way to have the chance to really jump up the Western Conference standings in the next 2-3 years is to get new, young and superior talent on the team. That was going to be extremely difficult to do with Pau and his contract on the team.

Of course other lesser reasons also apply when making the case against Pau being the franchise cornerstone. This team was the same statistically with or without Pau in the lineup (not a good fact for the highest paid player and offensive #1 option). Pau's health also seemed to be becoming an issue (and summer activity could further along those problems). Pau, as the franchise player, was 0-12 in the playoffs, and we needed to get past that and have a new culture and pecking order emerge.

Wallace (or Heisley, you choose) decided to get cap space and iffy draft pick selections in return for Pau. Maybe we could have done better, but likely Wallace didn't like any of the current talent being offered in return, so he decided to go with future, still undecided talent. This will likely result in a plan that relies heavy on young talent.

With cap room to spend, draft picks to play with and possibly one more valuable veteran to trade for a pu-pu platter (i..e, Mike Miller), I think Wallace IS going to be able to succeed at bringing a talent flux to Memphis. Trading Pau for the flexibility to do so, certainly puts more pressure on Wallace to find talent. I think Wallace will keep the team moving forward on a solid basketball plan despite Heisley's cost cutting ways. The West is loaded right now and focusing on building around young, extremely talented players and their future development is a reasonable plan.

I also want to say how stupid that Chad Ford article last week was. I don't have a link for it right now, but Ford had a number of trades listed that he simply pulled out of his butt. Ford claimed that all were better than what we got from LA. The catch is that I can't see very many of those trades that were reasonable or that the other team would also do the proposed trade. Ford had a Chicago trade mentioned that put the Bulls over the luxary tax, which they are reported to have refused to do. Clearly that trade wasn't plausible. Ford also has teams like the Spurs and Warriors trading half their team for Pau alone. In what world does that make sense? Is that even legal? No playoff contender is going to gut their team for Pau Gasol.

In summary:
--Hesiley.....cheap
--Pau.....had to be traded for the Griz to move forward successfully
--Griz.....need more talent
--Future Plan.....create a nucleus of talented players in their lower 20's
--Chad Ford.....idiot

Shades of Blue Week in Review

Darko's Redemption (Darko fans, at this point this might be the most positive article you can find...cherish it)
Power Rankings (If you makes you feel any better, the Lakers got a first place vote)
Wondering about Wages of Wins (Chip chats with his ole buddy)
Wallace Explains Pau Trade to Ticket Holders in Stunning Presentation (Just read it if you haven't yet)
Welcome Back to Dunkyland (Let's just say that the Pau trade didn't help brighten the opinion that Spartacus holds for Heisley)

Griz Week in Review

Newsflash...we aren't quite burning up the league right now. The Griz went 0-3 this week and have now lost 6 in a row overall, 4 in a row at home, and 8 in a row on the road.

Newest Griz, Javaris Crittenton goes up and under for a layup against the Mavs. JCritt has played primarily SG so far and looks to have the ability to get to the rim. (Getty)

Each night, Rudy Gay is now asked to be the #1 option and alpha dog on the court. I think Rudy got better each game as the week progressed. That is a good sign. Now that Rudy is playing the 4 more, rebounding better seems to have became a priority. On offense, Rudy has to find a game-to-game consistency of being aggressive and finding his shots. Lots of his shots.

Conley returned from injury this week and resumed his starting PG spot. His presence is badly needed for a team looking to find an identity on offense. Our offense right now needs to resemble the merging of Gay and Conley's game. I think we might be seeing Miller used too much as a play maker and Darko used too much as a post threat. I understand the need for variety and getting the whole team involved, but jeez, we suck, let's lean on our 2 best players more. That is Conley and Gay. Other teams don't mind using 2 players to dominate the offense flow, we need to.

Rudy Gay takes it to the hole against the Hornets. Which reminds me, I can't wait until Rudy wins the dunk contest. (Getty)

Best Game of the Week: Griz Play Well, Stay True to Form and Allow Bucks to Steal the Late Win.
97-102
This was a weird home game, as tornadoes were causing destruction all over the area. Some 2000-3000 fans braved the elements to watch the game. The upper deck was closed off and everybody moved down. Notable was Kwame Brown getting a (small) standing ovation upon his entrance. The most exciting play was a Lowry-Gay alley-oop connection in the 1st quarter. The Griz played decent against a depleted Bucks roster. But in the end, Mo Williams took the game from the Griz and again showed how bad the Griz pick-and-roll defense is.
3SoB impressions
CA recap
AP recap

Worst Game of the Week: Dallas Lays Down the Smack in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters
81-92
Blah. The Griz held their own early and late, but couldn't handle the Mavs in the middle of the game. Rudy started strong and finished weak. At one point in the 4th, quarter garbage time, Conley, JCritt, and Navarro were all on the floor together. There will probably be too many of these games during the rest of the season.
3SoB impressions
CA recap
AP recap

Other Games:
--99-112 Loss to the Hornets. I hate the Hornets. Maybe more than any other Griz opponent. They completed a sweep of us this season, but at least no one scored 40 or more points this time. Conley returned to the starting lineup and played really good against Chris Paul. Coach I stuck with a short rotation as Conley/Navarro/Miller/Gay/Darko played major minutes.
CA recap
AP recap

Micheal Conley makes something happen. Griz fans are excited to see him healed and ready to play. (Getty)

Player of the Week: The Fans
The Fans deserve a nod this week for a couple of thousand strong braving some of the most serious storms since Hurricane Elvis, all to watch the Griz play. Many fans did not know if their houses were or were not in harms way while watching the game. Fans that didn't go to the Bucks game because of the weather can get a free ticket to some other game, but I think fans that did go should get a free ticket.

Griz Killer of the Week: Mo Williams
Mo dropped 32 points and 7 dimes on Tuesday. He was particularly clutch late, sinking a basket that broke a tie and essentially won the game.

Herrington and Verno Links of the Week:
Gasol Trade: 20 Questions by Herrington
Trade Post Mortem with Chris Wallace by Herrington
Pau Trade, Slight Return by Herrington
Wallace was not happy, audio of Wallace on Vernon Show
The Pau Trade a Few Days Later by Verno

Griz Week Ahead

Short week ahead for the Griz with only a pair of back-to-back games on Tuesday/Wednesday.

--Tuesday versus Sacramento
--Wednesday at Philadelphia


Possibly, both games are winnable. That is a nice change. I don't have much to say about either game, really. The Kings will attack our defense using the deadly Beno pick-and-roll and then use sharp shooters Martin and Garcia on the outside. To beat the Kings, I'd like to see the Griz have more success from beyond the arc. Against the 76ers, our little guards can't let Dalembert continually stuff their basket drives.

I predict that Micheal Conley is going to play great in both games.

One Last Rudy Photo

Ru-Dee!! Ru-Dee!! Re-Dee!! How can we get that chant becoming a staple in the Forum? (Getty)

Go Griz!

BallHype: hype it up!

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Links: NBA Officiating, Gasol Trade Review, Team Names, Rudy Illustration

One of these days, the guys over at Hardwood Paroxysm are going to stop looking to us for answers. Until that happens, we're going to keep pulling answers out of our nether regions. This time around, they wanted to talk about NBA officiating. Well, that's one of our favorite subjects to vent our frustrations about, so we quite willingly obliged.

Chris Mannix (SI.com) thinks that the Memphis Grizzlies -- and Chris Wallace in particular -- might be a little in over their heads right now, given what they got in return for former franchise player Pau Gasol. Once you get past his biting sarcasm, it isn't hard to find some common ground to agree with him on, though.

Rooktopia has taken it upon themselves to rate the Western Conference's teams based solely upon their name. You'll be happy to know that while they only gave the Grizzlies 4/5, they do have a solution that would make them, along with 2 other teams, tops in the league.

Joel Kimmel has another fantastic illustration up on his blog -- this time of Rudy Gay in a representation of a dunk he'd like to see performed in the Dunk Contest.

Blog/Website of the Day: Basketbawful

Friday, February 8, 2008

Postgame Thoughts - Dallas

I don't understand how people can't be entertained watching the Grizzlies these days. My friend and I had a blast watching the Dallas game. Halfway into the 3rd quarter I bet him that the Grizzlies would score 80 points in the game. It was so exciting watching to see if it would happen.

What has Juan Carlos Navarro done to earn the hatred of the refs? He was getting mugged tonight without any calls. I can understand his frustration. We were absolutely laughing watching Eddie Jones nearly knock him over at midcourt in the third with no call, regrouping himself and driving into the lane and having Barea hook his arms with no call. The next time down the court Devan George elbowed him to the court for a rebound right in front of the ref with no call. I realize that Navarro has to be down after buying his contract out from Barcelona (yes he paid them to get out) so he could play with Pau only to see his best friend traded but the calls, or lack of them, certainly has to be making him wonder what he is doing here.

Rudy looked great in the first half but disappeared in the 2nd. Miller looked off all night and particularly bad in the 2nd when he lost the ball at midcourt, only to have it knocked back toward him so he kicked it toward the sideline and then slid out of bounds going for the ball. That was just embarrassing. Darko failed to get his double-double but didn't look particularly bad. He just didn't look particularly good either. Hakim is playing like he is a career bench player.

Free throw shooting was abyssmal. How does trading Pau cause the team to shoot 19-32? 13 missed free throws and a 12 pt loss. I wonder if there is a connection? Shooting below 40% from the field isn't going to get you many wins either. It just appears the team is lost without Gasol drawing double teams down low.

Face it, the team is bad right now. That doesn't mean they are that bad a team however. If the team doesn't shoot well then they aren't going to win but I believe that the shooting will improve once the team adjusts to Pau's being gone. Free throw shooting is a longer term problem however. Darko shoots free throws so poorly my high school coach would bench him on that alone and Kwame is worse!

The team looks lost on offense but at least is improving on defense. Probably the highlight of the game for me after Dallas went on a 11-2 run to end the half was when Jason Collins flattened Devan George instead of letting him get an easy layup. When has that happened by a Grizzlies player before?

Saturday night will probably be more of the same but after the all-star break I expect a better overall effort from the team. It's tough to make major changes to a young team in mid-season but there is a green light at the end of this tunnel. That FA money should find someone to help this team this summer. We just have to endure the rest of the season until that happens. A high draft pick and a veteran FA who can contribute inexpensively (I don't believe we will be going after a name player this summer) plus experience for Navarro, Conley, Rudy (yes he can still get better) and Lowry will make the team better next year.

I wasn't around when the Brooklyn Dodgers played ball at Ebbetts Field but I have heard their refrain: "Wait til next year!"

Memphis at New Orleans -2.10.08

Memphis comes to New Orleans desperate for a win, any win, but it will be difficult against the Hornets, one of the best teams in the league this season. Memphis has struggled to find an identity after trading their biggest name, Pau Gasol, for cap space and future draft picks essentially. The most encouraging player from the trade, Javaris Crittenton, may be forced to play out of position if he wants to get any playing time this season. Kwame Brown adds size and defense to the interior but has been mostly a disappointment since being the #1 pick in the draft. This is most likely the last chance Kwame will get to impress anyone enough to sign him for more than the MLE so motivation should be on his side as well. Rudy Gay and Mike Miller are still the leaders of the team but will struggle to find open looks without an interior scoring threat.

New Orleans had been one of the top teams in the Southwest Division all season. Led by MVP candidate Chris Paul and balanced with a strong rotation including Peja Stojakovic, David West and Tyson Chandler, The Hornets have resurrected the franchise that only three seasons ago won a grand total of 18 games after trading their biggest name, Baron Davis. That trade brought back two old bad players in Dale Davis and Speedy Claxton and no draft picks. The Hornets are the poster children for the idea that by making smart draft picks and good free agent signings a quick turnaround is possible. New Orleans has improved thanks to improved health as much as anything. Last year New Orleans struggled with injuries to Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic to just miss the playoffs. This season New Orleans is 3-0 against Memphis including two overtime games.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Chris Paul
Mike didn't start against Dallas but he was clearly the more polished player and will most likely start against the Hornets. Welcome to the NBA rookie, go guard MVP candidate Chris Paul. Paul has been outstanding this season and while LeBron is the front-runner, CP3 isn't far behind. Conley is a great looking rookie but he has only played 20 games this season and 2 years ago was playing high school ball. He has a bright future but this isn't the future.
Advantage: New Orleans

Shooting Guard: Mike Miller vs Morris Peterson

Miller started at SF against Dallas but MoPete can just shoot over Navarro while being a good enough defender to prevent JCN from getting any looks. Miller on the other hand is tall enough to contain MoPete and can cause him problems when the Grizz have the ball. Miller is good for a lot of points in spurts as long as they aren't crucial points in the game. He should be able to do some damage against MoPete.
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forward: Rudy Gay vs Peja Stojakovic

Peja has a history against Memphis that isn't very good. If there is a better pure shooter in the NBA than Mike Miller than Peja is on that short list. At 6-10 he is a matchup nightmare on the perimeter where his deadly accuracy and fast release allow him to score in bunches. Rudy Gay is able to hit some great shots but struggles against better defenders off the dribble. Lucky for Rudy that Peja isn't one of those defenders. Rudy will need to force Peja to work on defense so he can't focus on offense. Rudy has also been doing a great job on the boards lately and will need to continue to do so.
Advantage: Memphis

Power Forward: Hakim Warrick vs David West

Hakim has not played well enough to earn the spot but then again what interior player has off the bench? West is a monster when his game is not on. Give him some quick easy baskets and he will likely get on a roll. Hakim had shown an instant offense reputation off the bench but Memphis can't wait that long to get a scorer on the court. As a starter Hakim hasn't been nearly as effective. Memphis needs someone who can score around the hoop and Hak is drifting further and further from the basket too often.
Advantage: New Orleans

Center: Darko Milicic vs Tyson Chandler

TYson Chandler didn't play Thursday against the Suns but is expected back for this game, Why are they rushing him? Darko had his string of double-doubles end in Dallas but is capable of starting another run as soon as the ball is thrown up. Darko still relies on one basic move but teams struggle to stop a 7-2 man throwing up hook shots. Once he refinds his range he could be deadly effective underneath. Darko can't fall too in love with his shot however or Tyson Chandler will be sprinting past him to get easy baskets. Darko needs to rebound on the defensive end and rush to get on defense on our misses. If healthy Tyson Chanler is hand full on the backboard and has range out to at least 12 inches from the rim. The problem is nothis range since he is such an effective offensive rebounder.
Advantage: New Orleans

Bench: Memphis vs New Orleans

No contest here. Moving ice cold Juan Carlos Navarro to the bench won't help him find his shot. Crittenton is exciting but out of control. Hopefully that has more to do with his lack of knowledge of the system and not a character trait. Kwame Brown makes Darko look good at the free throw line. Jason Collins at least has shown the willingness to guard the lane with his body. Lowry will have to force the pace to be effective. Memphis' gamble of going big early means they have no backup SF. The Hornets have been getting freat production from their bench. Janerro Pargo is on a roll. Former Grizz Bobby Jackson will drain anything if left alone. Even Julian Wright has been getting some court time but it is still the starters that drive this team.
Advantage: New Orleans

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Wondering about the Wages of Wins

3 Shades of Blue in general (and myself in particular) have always been fans of the work of David Berri, one of the co-authors of the book Wages of Wins. I recently had the opportunity to ask David some questions via email about the Grizzlies and the Pau Gasol trade in particular. Here are the results of that conversation.

3SoB: David – First let me say how much I appreciate you taking the time to do this. I suppose given your Bakersfield residence you felt obligated the fill in the blanks left from the Pau Gasol trade. After all if Memphis can give the Lakers a championship you can at least give a bit of your time to the Grizzlies blog writers!
David: Glad to talk to you and your audience (which I gather is growing very rapidly).

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Memphis at Dallas - 2.8.08

Memphis continues the painful trip from optomism to reality as they venture to one of the most difficult arenas to play in the country when they take on the Dallas Mavericks Friday night. Memphis has seemed in shock, both the team and the fans, from the Gasol trade. On the good news front Mike Conley is expected to play for the first time since the Washington game on January 23rd. The bad news is that Dallas is where he originally hurt his shoulder that caused him to miss so much time early in the season.

Dallas continues to hang around the lead of the Southwest division thanks to the play of Dirk Nowitski. Last season's MVP started the season slowly but has been steadily improving and, despite the back to back losses last week at Boston and Detroit, Dallas is in great shape to win the division again as they are currently tied with Saturday night's opponent New Orleans and have a 1.5 game lead over San Antonio. Rumors have been swirling however that Dallas may be interested in acquiring former Mav point guard Jason Kidd. You will have to put me in the see it to believe it catagory.

Point Guards: Mike Conley vs Jose Barea
Barea hurt the Grizzlies the last meeting in the Mavericks rout. His 9 points came at crucial times when it looked like Memphis may make a run. Barea isn't a great shooter or passer overall but as a starter he has hit 54% of his FG attempts and 58% of his 3 pt shots. Mike Conley is more in control as the starting point guard than Kyle Lowry and his return should be a big benefit for the Grizzlies. Coach Iavaroni has said that Conley has looked good in practice and even taken a few tough hits without problem. However rust has to be a factor as will conditioning. If Conley is 100% and not afraid of contact then he should have the advantage but only time will tell if that is the case. Barea will physically challenge Conley despite his relative size disadvantage.
Advantage: Dallas

Shooting Guard: Mike Miller vs Eddie Jones

Eddie Jones is old. His performances this season reflect. His 3.5 average and 36.8% shooting means Mike could have a relatively easy night on defense for a change. The problem is Eddie Jones can still play defense and he knows Mike's tendancies and prefered shooting locals. He won't let Mike get open looks very often. When defended Mike has a tendancy to disappear and the Grizzlies don't have enough offensive weapons to match the Mavs if Mike isn't being aggressive. Mike should outperform Jones but will it be enough to change the outcome?
Advantage: Memphis

Small Forwards: Rudy Gay vs Josh Howard

Two players having serious break out seasons meet in this matchup. Rudy Gay is now considered the second best player in last season's draft but unlike Brandon Roy doesn't seem as comfortable in the lead scoring role yet. Rudy can hit clutch shots and has little fear but his ball-handling skill leaves much to be desired and he doesn't hit open teammates as much as is needed for a lead player. Howard toiled under Dirk's shadow for 4 seasons but this season emerged from the shadow to establish himself as a legitimate threat. Averaging 20.8 ppg this season puts Howard in 2nd place in scoring ahead of Jason Terry and only 1.6 ppg behind Dirk. What's more he has played above that level against Memphis averaging 26.5 ppg in the series.
Advantage: Dallas

Power Forwards: Hakim Warrick vs Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki used to light up Pau Gasol on the defensive end while letting his big centers work him over on defense. Now he will have to guard Hakim who has the size and quickness to frustrate Dirk offensively. The problem is that Hakim's reputation on defense is worse than Gasol's. Hakim needs to keep Dirk in check and that won't be easy. The real problem comes on the boards as Hakim is averaging a meager 3.1 rpg compared to Dirk's 8.7 rpg. If Dallas gets 5 more rebounds than Memphis from the PF position it is going to be a long night.
Advantage: Dallas

Centers: Darko Milicic vs Erick Dampier

Dampier is one half of the Mavericks powerful center combination. Known for his rebounding ability Dampier has managed to grab 7.0 rpg despite playing less than half of the game. Dampier gets most of his points close to the rim usually from tipping in misses which explains his 62.5 FG%. He has little range however which also explains his 62.0 FT%. Darko has posted three consecutive double-doubles but those games were against less physical big men. Diop and Dampier average 2.5 bpg between them and will clog the lane as well as any one. Darko needs to make sure he is taking good shots and hopefully will get Dallas' big in trouble more than himself.
Advantage: Dallas

Benches: Memphis vs Dallas

Jason Terry has moved back to the bench but that just means he gets to try and score against backups instead of starters. The man knows how to score. His points alone could outscore the Grizzlies bench players unless Navarro gets hot. Throw in Brandon Bass who is showing the athleticism that made him a star at LSU. Diop provides great defense in the middle and Dallas' bench with Terry becomes as scary as any in the league. OUtside of Navarro there just aren't a lot of points coming off Memphis' bench right now. Crittenton could help but Kwame Brown, Andre Brown, Brian Cardinal and Casey Jacobsen don't actually create fear in opponents. Kyle Lowry played well as a starter but hasn't shown the spark coming off the bench as much as people expected this season.
Advantage: Dallas

Darko's Redemption

He is still just 22 years old. He is still 7 feet tall. He is still very skilled for his size. However, his name is still Darko Milicic and he is still considered one of the biggest draft busts in NBA history. Ok, Mike Kahn says the biggest bust since 2001. However, playing in virtual NBA obscurity in Memphis, Darko Milicic is starting to slowly become the player Joe Dumars envisioned taking over for Ben Wallace.

Early in Memphis Darko established himself as a superb one on one defender of big post scorers against the like of Tim Duncan and Yao Ming. However, an early season injury to his shooting hand left Darko struggling to be able to grip the ball and make clean catches. Darko tried to play through the injuries and looked every bit the bust as he came back slightly heavy and bobbling entrance passes and rebounds at almost every turn.

Darko started the season off averaging 10.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in just 29 minutes before his thumb injury against New Orleans on November 16th. He returned from injury the first of December and he was not the same player. His stats took a noticeable dive and so did his minutes. Memphis fans began to think they had been sold the same pig in a poke that Detroit and Orlando fans had bought.

At the end of January, Grizz mainstay Pau Gasol began to have back pain. Unfortunately, the first two games that Gasol sat, Darko was not able to take advantage. However, on January 30th against reigning defensive player of the year Marcus Camby and the Denver Nuggets, Darko had perhaps his best game in a Memphis uniform. He posted 14 points, 16 rebounds (7 offensive) and 5 blocks while almost helping the depleted Grizzlies knock off the Nuggets. On February 2nd against the equally good frontline of the Utah Jazz, Darko was one of the lone bright spots after posting his first career back-to-back double double with 12 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks.

So Tuesday marked a big night for Darko.

With Kwame Brown joining the Grizzlies, Darko was able to look into what could be his future. A former high draft choice that is unable to make his mark in the league during his second NBA contract. Brown will be lucky to play for the veteran minimum with his next team. Darko really has two and a half seasons to prove that he can become a credible NBA center. Nobody at this point expects him to fulfill his enormous draft day promise.

On Tuesday night facing former #1 overall pick Andrew Bogut, Darko turned in another worthy performance. He posted 11 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks. Are the numbers eye popping? No. However, Darko is quietly turning in some very quality performances especially for a 22-year-old center. Darko needs to continue posting consistent efforts for the Grizzlies to get back to being a playoff team.

Coach Marc Iavaroni has a reputation as a big man’s coach. Amare Stoudemire always credited Iavaroni with a big part of his development in Phoenix. A lot of Iavaroni’s future success in Memphis is dependent upon Darko’s development as an anchor to the Grizz running game on offense and defense. So far, it looks like Iavaroni’s extra work with Darko is paying off in on the court performances. Next up…the win-loss column.

BallHype: hype it up!

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Power Rankings 2-4 & 5

Pau is getting more positive press than he got in Memphis for a long time.
Every ranking mentions Pau in their intro and/or comments.
Of course, Memphis falls and it seems primarily because Pau is gone.
While the Lakers rise and for some it is because Pau is a Laker.
The Grizz drop to number 30 in the SI rankings!
Should I start listing this as inverted standings as Zack suggests?
 

Power Rankings for 4 & 5 Feb. '08
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BallHype: hype it up!